Stephen Kenny

[ifk101]

In May 2019, then Ireland Under-21 manager Stephen Kenny praised Hodge's capabilities after watching him impress during Ireland's 1-1 draw with Belgium at the Under-17 Euros.

Kenny spoke to the RTE panel about Hodge?s natural talent, saying, "He's a classic, natural midfield player."

"He understands the game for one so young, he has a great appreciation for space. He takes great angles to receive the ball, and has great feet, good vision and a range of passing. He's got a lot."
https://www.otbsports.com/soccer/hodge-wins-scholar-of-the-year-1054745



Sitting in the stand watching Ireland's U-19s eke a draw from their Euro U-19 finals opener last night, Stephen Kenny could be seeing paying special attention to Joe Hodge. The youngest player in the Ireland squad displayed coolness beyond his 16 years by burying an equaliser nine minutes from full-time against Norway.

Kenny last week contended that the FAI lost out on Jack Grealish and Declan Rice for not fast-tracking them into the senior ranks early enough.

Manchester-born Hodge is likely to be the next dual-eligible player England will intensify their pursuit of and Kenny, due to replace Mick McCarthy next year, may decide to apply his philosophy early into his reign.
https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/international-soccer/hodge-proves-hero-as-ireland-strike-late-to-rescue-vital-point-38316496.html

Kenny is clearly a fan, and has been for some time.

[Razors left peg]

Lads havent been on here in a while and I havent gone back through the thread. The draw has brought a question to my mind of what would be enough in the Euro group to keep people satisfied enough for Kenny to continue into following world cup campaign.

Im not sure I know what would satisfy me to be honest, that group we got is completely deflating.

1. 2 draws and 2 defeats against France and Holland, but we take 4 pts from Greece.

2. 1 win against France or Holland, 3 pts from Greece

3. 0 points against France and Holland but 6 pts from Greece.

Would any of those 3 scenarios satisfy us here?

[paul_oshea]

Any 3 of those will satisfy at least 56% of the people on here

[samhaydenjr]

Lads havent been on here in a while and I havent gone back through the thread. The draw has brought a question to my mind of what would be enough in the Euro group to keep people satisfied enough for Kenny to continue into following world cup campaign.

Im not sure I know what would satisfy me to be honest, that group we got is completely deflating.

1. 2 draws and 2 defeats against France and Holland, but we take 4 pts from Greece.

2. 1 win against France or Holland, 3 pts from Greece

3. 0 points against France and Holland but 6 pts from Greece.

Would any of those 3 scenarios satisfy us here?


None of those - if we are to show genuine progression at this point, six points from Greece (and Gibraltar!) and four from twelve against Holland and France. That should take us back within sight of where we were under our previous three managers (okay it would be slightly better than Mick's campaign).

Two quick notes - on the Hodge issue, would it have been so hard for Kenny to say "yes he's a talented lad, it's great to see him get a run-out, we will monitor him closely over the next few weeks and make a decision about inclusion in the squad for the friendlies" because that's exactly what he should be doing

Secondly, if we look at our last seven permanent managers, we had four who had managerial experience at English second level and above - all four got us to a major championship and got us to a play-off when it was available on all occasions bar one. The other three managers have yet to achieve either of these once (OK, our Nations League performance might squeeze us into the playoffs this time).

[pineapple stu]

None of those - if we are to show genuine progression at this point, six points from Greece (and Gibraltar!) and four from twelve against Holland and France. That should take us back within sight of where we were under our previous three managers (okay it would be slightly better than Mick's campaign).
When was the last time we beat a mid-ranking team like Greece home and away? Or beat a side of the calibre of France or Holland in qualifying?

You've the Germany win in 2015 as our only big win since Holland in 2001, and for home/away wins against a mid-ranking side I think you're looking at Northern Ireland in Italia 90 qualifying (who'd reached the previous World Cup)

But you reckon both could happen here? Come on.

[CSAD]

When was the last time we beat a mid-ranking team like Greece home and away? Or beat a side of the calibre of France or Holland in qualifying?

You've the Germany win in 2015 as our only big win since Holland in 2001, and for home/away wins against a mid-ranking side I think you're looking at Northern Ireland in Italia 90 qualifying (who'd reached the previous World Cup)

But you reckon both could happen here? Come on.

Austria & Wales in 2018 qualifying.

Both of which were far more impressive than potentially beating Greece away.

[pineapple stu]

We didn't beat either home and away though (decent and all as those wins undoubtedly were)

And in fact we didn't beat the North home and away in Italia 90 qualifying either

[Real ale Madrid]

4pts v Greece
4pts v Fra / Ned combined
6pts v Gib

Anything better than that would be unreal! Need to qualify for Kenny to keep his job imo - he's had a chance to refresh the squad which was badly needed - but its a results business now.

If we, for example were edged out on goal difference by one of the big two and unluckily missed a playoff then - maybe he could claim that he deserves the 2026 WC but I doubt he'd get it.

[sadloserkid]

4pts v Greece
4pts v Fra / Ned combined
6pts v Gib

I think this would be a very good return with 14 points. I think anything less than 11 points (6 from Gibraltar, 3 from Greece and 2 combined from the big two maybe?) would be fairly described as lousy.

[pineapple stu]

Need to qualify for Kenny to keep his job imo
We need to finish ahead of France or Holland for him to keep his job?

No we don't. I think we need to finish ahead of Greece for him to keep his job, but if we got the points you've outlined (which I don't think we're capable of; Holland are a fair bit better than Serbia and reigning World Champions France are still ranked ahead of Portugal in the Elo despite a lousy Nations League, and you're never entirely sure how seriously teams treat the competition) then we likely wouldn't qualify but it would certainly justify a contract extension.

All pending a deeper analysis than just results of course - performance levels, opposition teams leaving key players out because they're focused on a different match, etc.

[lofty9]

I think this would be a very good return with 14 points. I think anything less than 11 points (6 from Gibraltar, 3 from Greece and 2 combined from the big two maybe?) would be fairly described as lousy.

The Foot.ie bar is then:
Very Good 14+
Good 13
Ok 12
Lousy 11 or below

[pineapple stu]

Can we add in a bare minimum of 10?

6 from Gibraltar
3 from Greece
1 from somewhere else

[tetsujin1979]

Can we add in a bare minimum of 10?

6 from Gibraltar
3 from Greece
1 from somewhere elseMinimum of four from Greece, they were seeded below us, we shouldn't be losing to them

[Real ale Madrid]

We need to finish ahead of France or Holland for him to keep his job?

No we don't.

We need to qualify for the tournament surely for Kenny to keep his job - either via the group ( almost impossible ) or the playoffs ( possibly a route that will not be available to us )

If we don't qualify then I don't see his contract being renewed.

[sbgawa]

Unless the FAI find a big bag of money in a closet in Abbotstown (They cant even get a decent sponsor for the mens team) he could be in the job for a long time to come as he is affordable for them.
We could not qualify from the group and then be told it was alwayhs impossible, a bare minimum showing will suffice

[osarusan]

We need to qualify for the tournament surely for Kenny to keep his job - either via the group ( almost impossible ) or the playoffs ( possibly a route that will not be available to us )

If we don't qualify then I don't see his contract being renewed.

Seriously?

I'm very much a 'Kenny out' man but that's a crazily high bar. Picking up any points against Netherlands and France would be decent. Even 4 losses is not automatic sacking stuff, unless they are horrendous performances and goal-fests against us.

It's much more about what we show against Greece (assuming we dismiss Gibraltaer home and away).

[John83]

Minimum of four from Greece, they were seeded below us, we shouldn't be losing to them
I hate to give Kenny fanbois a straw to grasp when we finish fourth, but Greece are a decent side we're probably no better than 50:50 to finish ahead of. Their FIFA rank, for example, is 52; ours is 49. They're no Armena, Luxembourg or whatever that it would be shocking to lose to.

[pineapple stu]

They're even above us in the Elo ratings (41st v 46th), which I always think are a bit more reliable.

I think some of the expectations in this thread are already matching the "We should go through the Nations League unbeaten" stuff we saw ahead of that campaign.

[paul_oshea]

Seriously?

I'm very much a 'Kenny out' man but that's a crazily high bar. Picking up any points against Netherlands and France would be decent. Even 4 losses is not automatic sacking stuff, unless they are horrendous performances and goal-fests against us.

It's much more about what we show against Greece (assuming we dismiss Gibraltaer home and away).

Are you really saying that two games against Greece decide his outcome? Its about all the games, if we dont perform well throughout all the games surely that's enough for you?

[pineapple stu]

He said it's more about the games than Greece than about qualification.

That doesn't mean the games against Greece decide his outcome. It means they're more important is all

[osarusan]

Are you really saying that two games against Greece decide his outcome? Its about all the games, if we dont perform well throughout all the games surely that's enough for you?

Of course they're all important. There's always a difference between a good performance and a bad performance.

Just in terms of victories/defeats (and not looking at the manner of a defeat), losing to Netherlands and France home and away need not be the end - they are just better than us anyway. There could be promising elements even in defeat.

It's the Greece games, an opponent similar to us in ranking, where defeats are not really going to come with the caveat of 'encouraging performance'.

Against Gibraltar, you'd assume anything other than 2 victories means it's all over instantly for Kenny.

[Real ale Madrid]

Seriously?

I'm very much a 'Kenny out' man but that's a crazily high bar. Picking up any points against Netherlands and France would be decent. Even 4 losses is not automatic sacking stuff, unless they are horrendous performances and goal-fests against us.

It's much more about what we show against Greece (assuming we dismiss Gibraltaer home and away).

I'm not saying I agree, I'm saying that's what I think the bar will be set at. I just don't think he will get another go. I'd keep him on if it was me - I just can't see it. If we miss out on a playoff place we will look at our two defeats at the start of the NL campaign and those will be the results to blame - it all goes back to the NL and Q being all part of the same campaign - and looking back over the campaign as a whole - he will be judged. Obviously and hopefully we get into said playoffs and the FRA / NED results will become largely irrelevant in that scenario.

[CSAD]

They're even above us in the Elo ratings (41st v 46th), which I always think are a bit more reliable.

I think some of the expectations in this thread are already matching the "We should go through the Nations League unbeaten" stuff we saw ahead of that campaign.

Elo ranking?Good god.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

When's the last time we lost to top seeds in a group both home and away? It rarely happens. I think the last time was under Trap in his last campaign. Even Stan got draws against the Czech Republic and Germany. It's really sad that the focus is on Kenny scraping by so he can have another campaign to satisfy his vocal supporters. The actual focus should be on these players competing to qualify for tournaments and been given the best opportunity to do so. Despite been criticised by Kenny backers, we actually have some very good players.

[JR89]

Elo ranking?Good god.

Yes the ranking system that fifa decided to start using a modified version of in 2018 when they changed up how they always did the rankings.

[pineapple stu]

That's the one. The FIFA rankings were nonsense and exploited as such by a few countries. Probably hard for FIFA to admit complete defeat and change over to Elo entirely.

On that basis, Holland are 150 points better than Serbia, which is a lot. France are still ahead of Portugal despite a dreadful Nations League campaign which saw them lose 100 points from second in the world. They're both 100+ points stronger than Denmark/Switzerland so let's not have any guff about how it's a comparable group to Mick's last one.

You can criticise Kenny's reign while acknowledging that this is about as tough a draw as we've ever gotten (especially when you add in a fourth seed rated above us)

[JR89]

Wasn't it Wales that realised if they didn't play friendlies it was more beneficial towards a better FIFA ranking.

[tetsujin1979]

Wasn't it Wales that realised if they didn't play friendlies it was more beneficial towards a better FIFA ranking.
Switzerland too

[CSAD]

Yes the ranking system that fifa decided to start using a modified version of in 2018 when they changed up how they always did the rankings.

So in other words the FIFA world rankings?

[JR89]

So in other words the FIFA world rankings?

FIFA scrapped how they did the rankings in 2018 and started copying how ELO did the rankings because it was better

[pineapple stu]

So in other words the FIFA world rankings?
No - FIFA now use a modified version of Elo. But they didn't go the full hog to Elo itself, so there's still scope for Elo to be more accurate.

[CSAD]

No - FIFA now use a modified version of Elo. But they didn't go the full hog to Elo itself, so there's still scope for Elo to be more accurate.

And why is that exactly?

[pineapple stu]

Why is what exactly?

Edit - if you mean why was the old rankings system flawed (as opposed to why did FIFA not just fully roll out Elo), then wiki has a good explanation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Men%27s_World_Ranking#Criticism), including how teams gamed the system by realising you could lose points for winning friendlies, which is obviously daft and isn't possible under Elo.

[elatedscum]

Why is what exactly?

Edit - if you mean why was the old rankings system flawed (as opposed to why did FIFA not just fully roll out Elo), then wiki has a good explanation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Men%27s_World_Ranking#Criticism), including how teams gamed the system by realising you could lose points for winning friendlies, which is obviously daft and isn't possible under Elo.

i think he means why is ELO more accurate than FIFA's current system

[pineapple stu]

Elo (not ELO - it's a person's name) has more nuance to it - it factors in whether a team is home and away, whether a team won 1-0 or 4-0 - that sort of thing. FIFA gives a bonus for winning in a penalty shoot-out which doesn't really make sense (because the expected score for the game between the two teams is then 1.25)

The new FIFA rankings make a lot more sense and correlate much closer to Elo, although still not fully. FIFA weights the Nations League lower compared to UEFA qualifiers than Elo does (60% v 75% I think), and that's reflected in the current rankings where England and France (who had bad Nations League) are lower in Elo than in FIFA, while Holland and Spain (who had good tournaments) are higher. There's a debate to be had as to which one is correct and it's not necessarily Elo, but I feel 60% is too low.



# Elo FIFA
1 Brazil Brazil
2 Argentina Belgium
3 Spain Argentina
4 Holland France
5 Belgium England
6 France Italy
7 Portugal Spain
8 Italy Holland
9 Denmark Portugal
10 Germany Denmark

[paul_oshea]

No it's a band. Electric light orchestra

[John83]

It doesn't matter how you measure it. We're ****e, Greece are not noticably worse, and so anyone assuming we have a divine right to finish ahead of Greece is talking out of an oriface not usually associated with speech.

[seanfhear]

It doesn't matter how you measure it. We're ****e, Greece are not noticably worse, and so anyone assuming we have a divine right to finish ahead of Greece is talking out of an oriface not usually associated with speech.
Gus Poyet actually looked a promising manager when he came on the scene first. ~ ~ Interesting to see how he goes with Greece ~ ~ They can be an up and down team at the best of times.

[CraftyToePoke]

It doesn't matter how you measure it. We're ****e, Greece are not noticably worse, and so anyone assuming we have a divine right to finish ahead of Greece is talking out of an oriface not usually associated with speech.

What about the ones saying not only do we have to finish above the Greeks but one of Holland & France too, what are they talking out of John83 ?

[nigel-harps1954]

What about the ones saying not only do we have to finish above the Greeks but one of Holland & France too, what are they talking out of John83 ?

I'm not sure there's any particular word or phrase to describe that level of madness.

[John83]

What about the ones saying not only do we have to finish above the Greeks but one of Holland & France too, what are they talking out of John83 ?
Same oriface, higher flow rate.

[paul_oshea]

Probably need to apply some backpressure to that flowable. Certainly others need to apply some forward pressure in the opposite direction.

[samhaydenjr]

When was the last time we beat a mid-ranking team like Greece home and away? Or beat a side of the calibre of France or Holland in qualifying?

You've the Germany win in 2015 as our only big win since Holland in 2001, and for home/away wins against a mid-ranking side I think you're looking at Northern Ireland in Italia 90 qualifying (who'd reached the previous World Cup)

But you reckon both could happen here? Come on.

Oh, I don't think they will - I don't think we're at the level where that's a serious possibility but if we were making good progress I think it would actually be attainable. That's why I think that it should be a benchmark for judging Kenny's performance. Now I could be overly pessimistic - maybe things start to really click over the next few months - a couple of players emerge in key areas and make their mark in the friendlies, putting us in a stronger position going into the qualifiers. But we shouldn't be talking about "improved performances" against Greece like we did against Scotland.

Now if we fall short of this mark, I would still be OK with Kenny staying on if he manages to get us in via the playoffs and we perform well in the Finals

[pineapple stu]

But still - a "benchmark for judging Kenny's performance" or a sign that "we were making good progress" would be two feats which combined we've managed once in the last 20 years?

And if we don't manage this, you'd be ok with Kenny staying on if we qualify through the playoffs and do well in the finals?

Are we going to do this with 45-goal Aaron Connolly up front?

[tetsujin1979]

Would you say that Greece are on the same level as Scotland? in 12 months time, if we compare the performances and results against both sides, how will the reflect on the manager?

[Diggs246]

Why are we throwing in the towel? This isn't us. I know the group is awful a d o know the players arnt world class but jesus we need to have more belief or i can guarantee u we won't qualify.
The only times we've ever qualified the draws been tough. Anytime we get a relatively easy one we crash and burn

[pineapple stu]

Who's throwing in the towel?

Don't mix up checking absurd optimism with throwing in the towel.

This isn't some magic fairy world where belief alone will get you through the group.

[John83]

Would you say that Greece are on the same level as Scotland? in 12 months time, if we compare the performances and results against both sides, how will the reflect on the manager?
Scotland are a bit better than Greece, though not all that much. Scotland finished the Nations League 6 points clear of us.

[Diggs246]

Who's throwing in the towel?

Don't mix up checking absurd optimism with throwing in the towel.

This isn't some magic fairy world where belief alone will get you through the group.

Most of the people on this forum have given up on automatic qualification

Its not magic if u don't believe in yourself your done before a ball is kicked

Look at the rugby v new zealand we lost games before the whistle went until Joe schmitt gave us the belief to beat them. Now we routinely beat them!

[pineapple stu]

Fortunately I'm not kicking the ball in this case, so what I believe is utterly irrelevant.

And Ireland are routinely ranked top five in rugby - it says a lot about how little that game is played that we couldn't beat the world number one for decades. And in real competition (World Cup), we still can't beat them or get past the quarter-finals despite all the belief the players may have.

So pointing out that the suggestion that progress means "we should beat Greece home and away and take four points off France/Holland or if we fail to do that then we should qualify through the play-offs and perform well at the finals" is utter gibberish isn't throwing in the towel.

There's a shade in between black and white here.