Covid 19 - LOI Ramifications

[Nesta99]

Yup! There are solutions for such things and hopefully supporters will show patience. But again going back to the legalities if there was a supporter with a nose out of joint they could cause a good amount of grief that also could snowball.

Reading the figures and all the other bits and pieces on covid-19 in 'trade' journals, there looks to be a serious risk of people taking a foot off the accelerator on all this at the moment. Its wrong to think in this way in general but also another 2-3 weeks will show most of the data needed to create models for more concrete decisions to be made. With this in mind a mid summer resumption (I nearly said restart eeeek) is possible if we keep the heads below the parapet and for another while we may not need to hit the doomsday button! I say this with the general consideration of a future rebound.

It is completely irrational as LoI fan but there would be some element of amusemnet if the current EPL was cancelled on Liverpool after fas waiting 3 decades.

[osarusan]

Obviously, we'd all prefer more rather than fewer games, but external factors will dictate how many games get played and whether even finishing the season at all is possible.

My question wasn't about how people would like/prefer to see the season finished, as much as what's the minimum number of games that need to be played for it to be a legitimate season.

For me, 18 is acceptable as it includes both home and away. Anything less is too short. 27 is better obviously, if possible, but who knows. As Stu said, even if things did get going again, a winter return of the virus would bring the whole thing to a halt.

[pineapple stu]

I don't think it's a case of a winter return of the virus - it's just that lockdown will probably be lifted way before cases come down to nil, because we can't stay locked up forever.

Simon Harris has already suggested it could be a case of, say, four weeks with lockdown, then four weeks normal during which cases grow again, and then lockdown again, all in order to allow health services cope effectively until a vaccine is found.

If that happens, then there's going to be zero chance of a 2020 season, and 2021 is in doubt as well.

[D24Saint]

I don't think it's a case of a winter return of the virus - it's just that lockdown will probably be lifted way before cases come down to nil, because we can't stay locked up forever.

Simon Harris has already suggested it could be a case of, say, four weeks with lockdown, then four weeks normal during which cases grow again, and then lockdown again, all in order to allow health services cope effectively until a vaccine is found.

If that happens, then there's going to be zero chance of a 2020 season, and 2021 is in doubt as well.

In that scenario we are looking at huge changes for society, pubs, restaurants among other businesses will close down in droves . That will result in hundreds of thousands in long term unemployment. The league of Ireland in such a climate would either have to go into prolonged hibernation ie release all football and all non essential playing staff or collapse. We are looking at our WW2 this virus has to be vaccinated for victory.

[pineapple stu]

Absolutely.

Which is why comments like "A 18-game season should be nowhere near the discussion" are daft.

There isn't a single reliable estimate as to how all this will pan out and when

[Nesta99]

Active and passive immunity above 60% is needed. Wont happen without finding a vaccine or let people pick up the bug. Its also looking that any immunnity isnt forever so a worry!!

[pineapple stu]

A 60% infection rate is literally decades away at the current rate though

3m people at 500/day (today's - record - rate) is 16 years

[El-Pietro]

A 60% infection rate is literally decades away at the current rate though

3m people at 500/day (today's - record - rate) is 16 years

Right but infection doesn't grow in a linear fashion. It has been exponential for the most part. We've manage to keep the daily growth rate fairly low, at ~10%, but even at 10% each day we get to 60% of the population infected by mid June.

[pineapple stu]

True, but the whole point of the lockdown is to try combat the exponential growth and create linear growth.

And it's working in countries such as Spain, Italy and Germany, where growth has been roughly linear the past three weeks for example. (Usual comment about believing their figures - it's probable that every country's figures for number of cases is wrong, but the deaths figure has been fairly linear too) Our own growth had been fairly linear for the past week too, though yesterday saw a big jump. That may be a jump to a new level of normal, or it may be an outlier; we don't know yet.

Ultimately, even exponential growth has an average number of cases per day - to get herd immunity by mid-June is an average of 50k cases per day (ending up at 300k cases per day). I obviously don't believe this will take 16 years to work its way through - that was just an indication of how big a figure herd immunity is - but I don't believe we'll be remotely close to it by mid-June either.

[El-Pietro]

True, but the whole point of the lockdown is to try combat the exponential growth and create linear growth.

And it's working in countries such as Spain, Italy and Germany, where growth has been roughly linear the past three weeks for example. (Usual comment about believing their figures - it's probable that every country's figures for number of cases is wrong, but the deaths figure has been fairly linear too) Our own growth had been fairly linear for the past week too, though yesterday saw a big jump. That may be a jump to a new level of normal, or it may be an outlier; we don't know yet.

Ultimately, even linear growth has an average number of cases per day - to get herd immunity by mid-June is an average of 50k cases per day (ending up at 300k cases per day).
I obviously don't believe this will take 16 years to work its way through - that was just an indication of how big a figure herd immunity is - but I don't believe we'll be remotely close to it by mid-June either.

We won't be because we're likely at or are approaching our peak. We've slowed daily growth, and if we can continue to do so should see daily growth approach 2 or 3% in the next week or so, which would hopefully mean we have fewer people needing hospital treatment each day, Assuming we don't see people start to ignore the advise to remain indoors due to the bank holiday/good weather.

The problem with exponential growth is our minds are not good at understanding how it actually works. The example I give is to imagine that someone said they would give you a penny today, andthey wold double the amount they give you each day for 30 days. At the end of 30 days you would have over 10 million euro.

At 10% growth the total doubles every week rather than every day, and that has a significant impact down the line, after 10 days of 10% daily growth 1,000 cases becomes 2,594. At 30% that same 1,000 cases becomes 13,786 and you see the health service be completely overwhelmed.

In your comment you sad that yesterday saw a big jump, but in percentage terms yesterday was not an outlier. 500 cases yesterday was an 8.23% increase on the previous total. We have only had 5 days with growth below that since we reached 100 cases. So in raw numbers it seems high but when you compare the daily growth rate it is just a minor speed bump. Our average growth over the last three days is +7.02%.

The other issue is confirmed cases vs actual infected. We (and all countries) have no idea how many people are walking around asymptomatic. We may never know, or we may develop a way to test for those who have been infected and recovered. Its a very real possibility that our actual infected number is 2 or 3 times higher than our confirmed infected, which would mean we reach 60% at a much earlier date.

[pineapple stu]

I know how exponential growth works - any chess player knows the story of the reward for inventing the game, which was a grain of wheat on the first square, 2 on the second, 4 on the third, and so on - but the point remains that the lockdown is there to combat exponential growth, to turn it into linear growth and even slowing growth. And it has been doing so for a number of weeks in other countries, so it stands to reason it should do so here as well. And yes, I know figures aren't necessarily correct - I acknowledged that point in my post.

But the question is - where does all this end? Not in mid-June (IMO) with herd immunity. Say we succeed in restricting growth to 3% as per your suggestion - well then 3m cases is reached at the start of November, when there's 100k new cases per day. And herd immunity isn't the end anyway - it's just the beginning of the end. You've still got a huge amount of sick people (1 million or so, assuming it lasts 14 days) and a shattered economy. How does that all work? Certainly the 2020 season is gone. Heck, half the league is gone, because sponsorship will be hammered, the bankrupt FAI won't be able to help, and the bankrupt state won't be able to help the FAI. So that's why I think talk of ruling out 18-game seasons is really trite.

But a graph I've seen and which is really logical to me - I can't find it now; it came from an MIT paper - is that we are in lockdown now until cases reduce to, let's say, 50 per day. Then lockdown is lifted for three weeks, during which cases go back up to 500 per day. We shut down for six weeks - cases go up to 1000 per day initially, which let's say is the max we can deal with, but then start to reduce to 50 per day again, at which stage lockdown is lifted again. This could go on until a vaccine is developed - which could be two years.

Will that happen? I have absolutely no idea. But it has to be a possibility; there's already talk of the virus resurfacing in China and Korea. And if, as Nesta suggests, you can catch it twice, well then it becomes more plausible again. So I don't think we can remain quite so focussed on the idea of exponential growth when we're trying everything we can to avoid it. And that starts to give up a whole other set of conclusions for sport, and society in general.

[pineapple stu]

Found that chart actually. How does the LoI (and society) work around this? The blue boxes are lockdown periods.

Again, I don't know if this will happen. But it's plausible, and completely separate from the exponential models.

https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/periodic-social-distancing_0.jpg?sw=616&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1245&ch=762

[Nesta99]

The prospect of that graph is damn scary when considering the impact and cost to society. I do think that societal behaviour wil adapt to cope - some things that will seem crazy now but will become the norm. At large gathering eg football matches people will be wearing masks, not the flimsy disposable types and they will be worn to reduce the risk of infecting others not to protect yerself, correct use, disposal etc will become second nature. The non-dominant hand will become almost dominant eg picking things up in a supermarket, opening doors hence reducing cross infection as we dont touch our face as often with the non-dominant hand where the virus might be. The usual and should be done anyway proper handwashing wll become the rule rather than the exception with sanitizers everywhere. It wouldnt surprise me to see infrared thermometer type devices installed at entrances of shops, turnstiles etc (I should patent that Idea). People will stop shaking hands and and will distance as much as is possible. Ground capacities will probably be reduced, particularly at larger venues than the average LoI spot - Hill16 would be an example. There are a whole load of measures that will come in to play but adapting to these new circumstances are as needed as an annual vaccine programme in due course - lets hope there wont be further mutation on that basis. Contact tracing will be common place with 14 day quarantines ordered, people working from home, the list will be endless but all to do with not ending up in a pattern like the graph above.

[D24Saint]

Would this mean that even if the league was to restart there would first need to be a risk assessment on grounds. It could mean reduced terrace space and a certain amount of people in a seated row all seated apart. It sounds plausible in theory but very impractical to implement. Take Richmond for example which has limited amount entrances , limited space behind the main stand & none behind the terrace and limited toilet facilities. The only ground in Dublin imo capable of maintaining social distancing and still allow numbers would be tallaght.

[pineapple stu]

You can't get around this by restricting terracing/stand capacity. You've still got people milling through turnstiles, around chip vans, in the club shop, etc.

[Nesta99]

Limiting numbers in itself could limit spread. There isnt any single solution so the above were examples. Entering a ground through turnstiles can be managed with appropriate queuing compared the way people converge en masse on entrances. If food points turn out to be infetion vectors then they would just go, similar with Bars, the league could resume but club bars/shops may not open. So yeah doing risk a assessment is exactly what it is and doing somthing about the 'risk'. Everything would need complete cooperation from fans for it all to work. It isnt about eradicating the virus, just limiting it. No easy or even practical but we will all see the world as a different place now and it could well end up doing anything that it takes irrespective of inconvenience - something is better than nothing

[pineapple stu]

But we had our first case a little over a month ago. Now, despite restrictions, we've 7k cases.

We either get to nil - pretty much impossible as we'd have to test everyone - or this will just blow up again. Helped by people going to football grounds and all that entails.

We mightn't like it, but that's surely the reality. This is here until we find a cure.

There's an awful lot of "the war will be over by Christmas" views about this (not just on here)

[D24Saint]

If the league has to be cancelled it has to be done by the start of June to limit the financial impact. I thought the June date given was achievable at the time it was announced but now starting to see it as fanciful at best. If we want a league to follow when the dust settles a decision is looming. They will have to put clubs into cold storage to survive and see this out for a 2021 resumption.

[D24Saint]

https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2020/0410/1129862-fai-extends-ban-on-all-football-activity-until-may/

[Nesta99]

But we had our first case a little over a month ago. Now, despite restrictions, we've 7k cases.

We either get to nil - pretty much impossible as we'd have to test everyone - or this will just blow up again. Helped by people going to football grounds and all that entails.

We mightn't like it, but that's surely the reality. This is here until we find a cure.

There's an awful lot of "the war will be over by Christmas" views about this (not just on here)

I dont disagree with you, but I do feel when the lockdown is lifted to whatever extent there will still be restrictions and they are very likely to include sports gatherings. The onging restrictions could lessen as systems and procedures are implemented, it is doable if people buy in to new behaviour.

[pineapple stu]

I dont disagree with you, but I do feel when the lockdown is lifted to whatever extent there will still be restrictions and they are very likely to include sports gatherings.
Yes, that's very plausible. Maybe we go back to the way it was (nostalgia, eh!), with gatherings of more than 500 banned, and pubs closed but restaurants/cafes open if they have social distancing.

But of course that's still far from ideal. Not least because I'd kill for an evening down the local at this stage. :)

[joey B]

Dr Chris Luke Emergency Medicine Consultant tells
@drivetimerte he’d ‘be very surprised’ if large gatherings like the GAA Championship would be permitted within the next 12 months'

We'll be lucky to get a season next year listening to that........

[D24Saint]

Dr Chris Luke Emergency Medicine Consultant tells
@drivetimerte he’d ‘be very surprised’ if large gatherings like the GAA Championship would be permitted within the next 12 months'

We'll be lucky to get a season next year listening to that........

It could just be his personal opinion. I’d agree with him to a point, it’s hard to see a packed Croke Park anytime soon.

[Nesta99]

Yes, that's very plausible. Maybe we go back to the way it was (nostalgia, eh!), with gatherings of more than 500 banned, and pubs closed but restaurants/cafes open if they have social distancing.

But of course that's still far from ideal. Not least because I'd kill for an evening down the local at this stage. :)

I feel your pain!! When not on duty we're on call so even a few cans at home isnt possible - maybe a good thing or id be in and out of the offfe far too often lol

[osarusan]

Things don't go back to normal until enough of the population has immunity either through recovering from the virus or through vaccination.

Vaccination is a long way away, and the current approach to this virus is to limit transmission as much as possible...which simply delays the point at which enough of the population has immunity.

Restrictions of some kind to continue for a long long time. Sports events would likely be some of the last to get the green light too.

[bohsmug]

There's an awful lot of "the war will be over by Christmas" views about this (not just on here)

I think you're probably right about this.

[D24Saint]

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0411/1129975-vaccine-coronavirus/

[dahamsta]

Can I just say, this is the best thread on Foot.ie for yonks. I love the need to crunch numbers, any numbers! :)

[DCWA]

After what length of time does it become the case that the 2020 season is just written off. If that can indeed become the case (what would happen European places for next year for example if that happens?)

[pineapple stu]

If the LoI season is written off, enough other seasons will be written off that UEFA will probably step in and make a call on European spots.

At this stage, Europs itself is under threat too of course.

[Nesta99]

After what length of time does it become the case that the 2020 season is just written off. If that can indeed become the case (what would happen European places for next year for example if that happens?)

I think that is the unsaid thinking when talking about what would be deemed the minimum number of games to declare the league table final. If there is no meaningful resumption to the 2020 season but there is a need to nominate clubs to the various European Comps (taking it that things could be normal enough to consider European football by then) well how do national associations and UEFA go about it? Can you just imagine the legal sh!tstorm when the financial differences between CL and EL qualification come in to play. Someone is going to end up either just sucking it up or UEFA come up with financial sweetners - considering the already battered finances.

There will be undoubtedly suggestions of some play-off type system to decide, league tables as they stand determine qualification, my own preference of club coefficients the deciding factor. Lets assume that 2021 UEFA competitions go ahead but with little conclusion to 2020 seasons - any additional possibilities? If it's not to end up with a LoI civil war, particularly between Dundalk and Rovers (with no disrespect to other clubs) well there will have to be some very eh mature decisions. Deferring the 2020 competitions to 2021 based on (our) 2019 season is a possibility but wouldnt be too popular in a resurgant SRFC camp - if only the game in Tallaght had been a draw (or Dundalk win lol).

All this said bearing in mind the really serious stuff thats happening to people, that communities, including LoI, could have a lot more than football to worry about than who is in CL or EL. But there is no harm in hoping or indeed expecting things to get back on track and looking for a timescale. As ever in football its the hope that both wrecks us but keeps us coming back for more when it occasionally becomes reality!

[Nesta99]

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0411/1129975-vaccine-coronavirus/

Another interesting develpment but a whole load of ethics has to go out the window (I'm not sure that the British establishment have yet to deal with Gulf War Syndrome and it lingers as an issue for the MHRA). Say that all that is waived and money isnt an issue being spent on a vaccine that hopefully works - well its a good job Sweden have gone down a route that would suit vaccine research if they share their findings. Worldwide scrambling for supply if the Brits will share their work will be fun, though as close neighbours with a shared porous border we could be top of the queue!! I'm sure DT is already looking to offer Hawaii to the UK for exclusive rights as long as it is before an election....

[Pablo Escobar]

Dr Chris Luke Emergency Medicine Consultant tells
@drivetimerte he’d ‘be very surprised’ if large gatherings like the GAA Championship would be permitted within the next 12 months'

We'll be lucky to get a season next year listening to that........

I would have thought it very likely that we'd have disruption next year too. When we hear talk of 'softening' restrictions, you can pretty much assume that social distancing won't be part of that. Therefore, sport will be an issue at any level, but especially where crowds my attend.

[D24Saint]

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/premier-league/premier-league-step-up-efforts-to-finish-league-behind-closed-doors-as-clubs-warned-stadiums-could-stay-closed-for-up-to-a-year-39121801.html

Reckon the true scale of disruption to what was normal life is being drip feed to try and stop mass panic. I reckon the truth is that no mass gatherings can occur until a vaccine is tried , tested and in large scale production. It’s a tough road ahead.

[D24Saint]

https://www.newstalk.com/news/holohan-restrictions-one-kind-another-will-remain-covid-19-vaccine-mass-produced-999307

[joey B]

The effects of this beginning to become apparent on players,the question is,is it better to keep peddling false hope or give certainty as far as any certainty can be given?

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/league-of-ireland/lives-have-changed-overnight-irish-players-reach-out-for-help-as-fears-grow-over-future-39129875.html

[Nesta99]

If certainty isnt even certain then isnt it all the same? Imo it is better to set targets, even if hopeful at best, that players (and people) can work toward rather than saying no football et al until 2021. Drip feeding bad news is used in health services, among many others as chucking a bomb under people rarely has a beneficial impact. Much easier to keep shifting the goalposts back and as in per the article it aides with motivation to keep routine. I'm sure a lot of players would just give up their diet and training knowing there was no need for it for 6-12months or whatever.

[RathfarnhamHoop]

The effects of this beginning to become apparent on players,the question is,is it better to keep peddling false hope or give certainty as far as any certainty can be given?

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/league-of-ireland/lives-have-changed-overnight-irish-players-reach-out-for-help-as-fears-grow-over-future-39129875.html

First off nobody's peddling false hope, people are making realistic aims with the information available, information that emerges after that makes it unrealistic that's different.
Second off, what harm does setting target dates do? There is no harm in having targets based on semi realistic best case scenarios instead of just going full pessimist on it.

[Martinho II]

Theres a lot of talk out there that the season will be annulled altogether and Winter Soccer will be the norm from now on. If thats the case why cancel the games that were played already? Just allow a few months of a break and restart the season from when the season suddenly stopped.

[Yossarian]

Theres a lot of talk out there that the season will be annulled altogether and Winter Soccer will be the norm from now on.

Where is all this talk? Why would we change the season structure permanently? Obviously this season is going to be changed and possibly next, but that is down to circumstances outside of everyone’s control. I don’t see why we’d move back to winter football.

[D24Saint]

I think a move back to winter football would only be feasible if every club moved to plastic pitches. That’s the only major stumbling block , I’d be in favour of a move back to the traditional season.

[RathfarnhamHoop]

I haven't seen anyone suggest a return to a winter league except very briefly in reference to the North not wanting to lose their Christmas games in an AIL.

Winter football is far too cold for me to even consider it as much as I love the idea of Christmas games. Don't think there's enough money in the league or public interest for it to be viable

[Ezeikial]

Shamrock Rovers players are taking a 25 per cent wage cut to allow the club to cope with the impact of the Covid-19 crisis.


https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/league-of-ireland/shamrock-rovers-players-take-25-per-cent-pay-cut-amid-coronavirus-shutdown-39131307.html

[The Lilywhites]

In reality there's not a hope the LOI will be allowed to return on June 19th with crowds.

If it went to a vote would clubs be for or against behind closed doors games? If not, then the season will most likely be binned and best case scenario is starting 2021 on schedule next February. That would give the 4 European clubs a headache this season if UEFA go ahead behind closed doors with Euro leagues and UEFA competition.

Could go behind doors, stream games and charge to view, but some problems there - people could pool in together to buy a stream between them, and the bigger issue is that very few clubs are actually equipped or capable of providing a proper stream (may be rights issues too with RTE, eir, maybe Trackchamp too).

Probably not financially rewarding enough to bother with it in any case. How many would you realistically get subscribing per game?

Clubs need to start making decisions soon. Bohs' decision was admirable but not sure it will actually work out in making financial sense in hindsight. Only Cork and Sligo announced cuts, but at least one other club in the Premier has done the same. Maybe others have too and just not announced it?

[vinnie]

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/league-of-ireland/shamrock-rovers-players-take-25-per-cent-pay-cut-amid-coronavirus-shutdown-39131307.html

At least it's the players taking a cut as opposed to any other staff (who might already be on the labour, who knows) I think in our little (insignificant to europe) league we're going to struggle when things start up again, will we have missed the qualifying games timeline for euro, or will they re-allign?

[RathfarnhamHoop]

Death, Taxes,...


Don't think there'd be a rights issue going by the Cork and Dundalk pilot last season. RTE and eir could still show their games too. You'd imagine too in that scenario people pooling together to buy games would also be breaching social distancing rules so you'd hope that would deter most people and those it didn't would probably find a way around it no matter what you did.

I'm personally against behind closed doors games, can't imagine any fan wanting to see their team in a Derby or win something and not be there but if it's that or clubs start to go under then I know which I'd choose.

[Martinho II]

Where is all this talk? Why would we change the season structure permanently? Obviously this season is going to be changed and possibly next, but that is down to circumstances outside of everyone’s control. I don’t see why we’d move back to winter football.

It was on Off the Ball AM yesterday morning as they were discussing it. They said there was a lot of talk about it but didnt say where.

They said that financially the move to summer soccer hasnt made the loi clubs any richer.

[D24Saint]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/anthony-fauci-how-sports-can-return-amid-coronavirus-crisis/

It’s not just the LOI in trouble I would keep a eye on the GAA on how they handle things. It’s starting to become clear that only well financed pro sports can start up again behind closed doors with their players isolated in hotels. I have no hope uefa won’t throw the smaller leagues under the bus with all this , if you aren’t able to fulfil your uefa fixtures I’m not not sure how they will handle it.

[RathfarnhamHoop]

They said that financially the move to summer soccer hasnt made the loi clubs any richer.

That may or may not be true, I'd err more on the side of not. But I think the reasons that clubs don't have much if any money are reasons other than the league moving to summer season and if the league was still played in the winter I'd put my money on the clubs being in a worse position financially.

[D24Saint]

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/national-league/airtricity-league-clubs-facing-potential-cost-cutting-of-10m-1.4205978