Covid 19 - LOI Ramifications

[Calcio Jack]

There is a balance to be had of course but a health service needs its admin sections functioning along with clinical departments or it will cease to function. There is a community risk to those admin staff even if at home as it is a pandemic and if stay at home guidelines were cover protection we wouldnt be worrying about vaccines But if people have been vaccinated who are over suspended clinics and havent been allocated to a functioning department then yes questions need to be asked. If all admin staff at the Department of Health were vaccinated then that is a big story. The Beacon Hospital incident was a disgusting incident and decision by Beacon management, there may have been some rationale if it were a local school but its was blatant abuse of position and so their service and the large amount of money that went with was quickly suspended. It may seem disproportionate or 'noise' but it was a deterrent to others. Who hand picked 20 of their teaching staff and why would be interesting and it has seriously undermined a lot of staff in that school so I hope they reap what theyve sown.



I have no particular Grá for the HSE, a very close family member needed multiple amputations as a result of negligence post partum, I have limited experience working directly for the HSE but it was enough - I have witnessed patient records being adjusted after a clinical incident, reported it, watched the behaviour after, and why i never wanted to work with the HSE regardless of how convenient it might have been. But at the same time they are something of a patsy for adverse incidents in the country. I can assure you that the HSE is no more open to errors than the NHS or even the excellently funded French health system. I can see why people would be frustrated by what is apparent delays in implementing protocols but everything in healthcare is evidence driven and it has to be! The example of masks, at face value (pardon the pun) it made sense, but consideration had to be given on whether masks could be riskier fomites, create vectors themselves, would people feel protected and drop their guard so masking up could worsen the situation. We didnt know what standard of mask was needed earlier days, with a worldwide shortage of PPE could you redirect masks away from frontline staff. Id be pretty sure looking back that any mask directive happened as supplies improved otherwise the lack of supplies can cause panic and not everyone is as rational as us LoI fans. Covering coughs by coughing in to an elbow is less about suppressing viral spread of the cough and more about not touching the face and surroundings with hands that may carry the virus (coughing in to the hand would make things a whole lot worse but our parents woudnt have known that until the evidence mounted that it was a cause of infection in itself but subtle adjustment to the elbow was better). People wearing gloves would be a disaster as the research showed that people rarely changed glove, forgot about them, never washed hands and continued to touch the face with the gloves in some belief that the gloves themselves didnt become contaminated. I have heard similar commets on the use of masks and gloves, but evidence based data eventually showed that there was an overall benefit to wearing masks, but an overall risk to wearing gloves. It takes time and not time that some people have, but you cant implement policy without the weight of evidence - otherwise a whole load of us would be suffering liver condition after popping hydroxychloroquine, I drug that I would have expected to have some net benefit tbh until the evidence suggested otherwise. If policy dictated the use of masks and evidence subsequently show little impact then the issue would be about govt concern on optics and unnecessarily wasting resources, Damed if you do damned if you dont.

Claims of Tony Holohan becoming power hungry and wasnt letting go, loving the limelight etc was unfair, considering his wifes health during their crisis. I have yet to see where NPHET have gone badly wrong and indeed it was not heeding their advice kickstarted this wave and subsequent lockdown. I think an independent enquiry in to the overall management of an unprecedented public health emergency in due course would just be good practice but not with undertones or accusations of sub par performance. If that is the case then it will be identified of not then credit where credit is due. Cartels? or coordinated strategy, consultation and joined up thinking? The breaking of rank between Govt and NPHET, where finger pointing started and undermined public confidence will be identified as failed moment and the start of this current extended lockdown, Vaccine rollout - well if the Germans, Canadians, French have difficulty as major biopharma hubs, its indicative of problems in international supply chains more than local rollout. Maybe we should have broke ranks with the EU and had a joint strategy with the UK?? We'd probably be further along with early vaccination - but id still rather be part of a 27 country bloc of 500mil people going forward than in the UK's situation. This is simply as there is a long long way to go on covid-19, AZ vaccines are drying up, questions on rates of efficacy and side effects and it very likely to be less adaptable to variants - but like everything else that will be a wait an see. The showing up of variants from India in the UK that are of much more concern than the UK and Brazil variants, coupled with the over enthusiastic lifting of restrictions where people have gathered in large number eg London's West End, could completely undo the progress mad there. Its frustrating for sure but evidence based, sure footed progress, is going to trump the race to claim to have been the saviour of a nation to save a political career. Time will tell and im finding it odd that booster jabs for NHS staff are already being scheduled and if you have one type of vaccine, prior to Christmas it will be another vaccine given.

Are you sure that the changes to AZ protocols were made without knowledge of improved supplies from Pfizer pending?!

Its all been a sh1tshow but lets not throw the baby out with the bathwater! As a people, historically, we have little reason to trust those in power, elected or privilaged, but not all that are trying to navigate through this as quickly as is deemed responsible, are malevolent, self serving types, out to get one over the masses!!!

No gra for HSE and you then go on with above tome to defend the indefensible - facts are Paul Reid when questioned by Claire Byrne and Paul Cullen from the Irish Times has continuously refused to answer the question as to how many HSE staff that weren’t entitled to be vaccinated have been and if he was aware of that then his position is untenable and if he wasn’t aware of it until journalists pointed it out again his position is untenable - then again we have one of the highest funded public health systems in the world that was already dysfunctional pre pandemic so no real surprise

[Nesta99]

I dont have to love Shamrock Rovers to recognise that recently they got more right than wrong, but are not infallible either!

People get tunnel vision when they see HSE and go on the offensive. What has been done poorly get focused on at the complete ignoring of what has done well. Balance is needed and a far more useful way to improvement that blanked and sweeping criticism. I though I explained some aspects of where there is a perception of tardiness and hove policy takes takes time, but also mentioning that have no vested interest or particular attachment to the HSE that drives my attempt to seek some balance and indeed if I let my personal experiences drive my opinion Id be angry at HSE car park attendants just because they are HSE. But my personal experience does cannot define an entire health system as rubbish.

Things like 'one of highest dunded public health system in the world' get rolled out but it is per head of population and scale comes in to it too which is just a bit important. I dont praise any organisation absolutely, that thinking leads to complacency - anyone who says their the best are alread y going backwards. I am not blind to faults but likewise I dont think people should automatically feel obligated to grumble.

I havent mentioned Paul Reid, he is the current public face that has more to do with PR than leading a service. I actually he is a relatively minor player in the grand scheme of all this though I doubt he would agree with that, clinical leads are making calls with some freedom as management is sidelined without major budgetary restrictions on covid response. But aside from his particular evasiveness, what are the issues you have with the overall response to this pandemic - be reasonable, keep context, single issues or personalities aside. What would you do different and how? Im not being smart here, its useful to know peoples perspectives as they will vary greatly. What would be your rationale on not vaccinating admin people of a health service eg?

[Sonny]

I havent mentioned Paul Reid, he is the current public face that has more to do with PR than leading a service. I actually he is a relatively minor player in the grand scheme of all this though I doubt he would agree with that, clinical leads are making calls with some freedom as management is sidelined without major budgetary restrictions on covid response. But aside from his particular evasiveness, what are the issues you have with the overall response to this pandemic - be reasonable, keep context, single issues or personalities aside. What would you do different and how? Im not being smart here, its useful to know peoples perspectives as they will vary greatly. What would be your rationale on not vaccinating admin people of a health service eg?

Paul Reid is paid €420k a year to quite literally run the HSE. This is in itself a scandal, but if he's on that money as basically a glorified PRO then it's one of the biggest scandals in the history of the state!

The reality is that the HSE is an absolute mess - probably at least partially by design so as to justify and enable the further privatization of healthcare provision in the country. It's a bloated basket case of bureaucracy with layers upon layers of managers earning big money while the actual operational functions of the organization are chronically under-staffed, under-resourced and utterly unfit for purpose. It's a microcosm of our broken society.

[Nesta99]

Paul Reid is paid €420k a year to quite literally run the HSE. This is in itself a scandal, but if he's on that money as basically a glorified PRO then it's one of the biggest scandals in the history of the state!

The reality is that the HSE is an absolute mess - probably at least partially by design so as to justify and enable the further privatization of healthcare provision in the country. It's a bloated basket case of bureaucracy with layers upon layers of managers earning big money while the actual operational functions of the organization are chronically under-staffed, under-resourced and utterly unfit for purpose. It'sa microcosm of our broken society.

Hello there Mary Lou!

I have no issue with your opinion on Reid's salary, or some subsequent points but CJ mentioned above being one of the best resourced health services in the world so is it under resourced?

[D24Saint]

Things seem to be straying off topic.

https://foot.ie/threads/254905-Covid-19

[Calcio Jack]

I dont have to love Shamrock Rovers to recognise that recently they got more right than wrong, but are not infallible either!

People get tunnel vision when they see HSE and go on the offensive. What has been done poorly get focused on at the complete ignoring of what has done well. Balance is needed and a far more useful way to improvement that blanked and sweeping criticism. I though I explained some aspects of where there is a perception of tardiness and hove policy takes takes time, but also mentioning that have no vested interest or particular attachment to the HSE that drives my attempt to seek some balance and indeed if I let my personal experiences drive my opinion Id be angry at HSE car park attendants just because they are HSE. But my personal experience does cannot define an entire health system as rubbish.

Things like 'one of highest dunded public health system in the world' get rolled out but it is per head of population and scale comes in to it too which is just a bit important. I dont praise any organisation absolutely, that thinking leads to complacency - anyone who says their the best are alread y going backwards. I am not blind to faults but likewise I dont think people should automatically feel obligated to grumble.

I havent mentioned Paul Reid, he is the current public face that has more to do with PR than leading a service. I actually he is a relatively minor player in the grand scheme of all this though I doubt he would agree with that, clinical leads are making calls with some freedom as management is sidelined without major budgetary restrictions on covid response. But aside from his particular evasiveness, what are the issues you have with the overall response to this pandemic - be reasonable, keep context, single issues or personalities aside. What would you do different and how? Im not being smart here, its useful to know peoples perspectives as they will vary greatly. What would be your rationale on not vaccinating admin people of a health service eg?

1. Paul Reid is Head of HSE so book stops with him.
2. Too many admin’ staff in proportion to medical stafff sucking up a huge amount of the budget - thanks Mary Harney
3. Admin staff working from home or offices where there is no public contacts is wrong - and Reid has already accepted that publicly but refuses to provide numbers and that’s the issue
4. Front line staff are ‘saints’ and have shown the true meaning of ‘ public service’ unlike the teachers Union leadership who are a disgrace

[John83]

1. Paul Reid is Head of HSE so book stops with him.
No judgement, and maybe this was a typo anyway, but people often learn idioms like this verbally: it's buck, like a mule bucks a rider, or you buck a trend. The buck stops with the head of the organisation, yeah.

[Calcio Jack]

No judgement, and maybe this was a typo anyway, but people often learn idioms like this verbally: it's buck, like a mule bucks a rider, or you buck a trend. The buck stops with the head of the organisation, yeah.

No worries I’m sure I’ve seen it written a zillion times but never copped the correct spelling ( buck as in a dollar actually makes sense as in “... he earns the big bucks..”)

[Nesta99]

So the vast majority of issues is with Paul Reid the individual and his playing of politics. He is calling it wrong to not state that all HSE staff have been vaccinated even if working from home. Done to protect the service as a whole and not as individuals. I mentioned the issues for that Bray school with this in mind, how serious problems will have been caused in that school by cherry picking people to vaccinate. If vaccinating any non clinical HSE staff you end up doing the all as the alternative is cherry picking staff, favouritism, potential claims of bullying, discrimination, unfair dismissal etc, crop up with absenteeism. Im sure we agree that clerical staff at Grade 3 are the bedrock of keeping things moving for the service, the biggest cohort too. How do you chose, draw lots maybe risking losing the best of your clerical team not vaccinating across the service land leave poor morale with those not vaccinated, that impacts on how a the service functions too. vaccinate management as they must be very important and its reflected in their pay??? We all know that would be bull****. Agree or disagree Paul Reid could and should use this rational and give up the figures. But there are reasons that clerical staff were vaccinated even when working from home.

[Calcio Jack]

So the vast majority of issues is with Paul Reid the individual and his playing of politics. He is calling it wrong to not state that all HSE staff have been vaccinated even if working from home. Done to protect the service as a whole and not as individuals. I mentioned the issues for that Bray school with this in mind, how serious problems will have been caused in that school by cherry picking people to vaccinate. If vaccinating any non clinical HSE staff you end up doing the all as the alternative is cherry picking staff, favouritism, potential claims of bullying, discrimination, unfair dismissal etc, crop up with absenteeism. Im sure we agree that clerical staff at Grade 3 are the bedrock of keeping things moving for the service, the biggest cohort too. How do you chose, draw lots maybe risking losing the best of your clerical team not vaccinating across the service land leave poor morale with those not vaccinated, that impacts on how a the service functions too. vaccinate management as they must be very important and its reflected in their pay??? We all know that would be bull****. Agree or disagree Paul Reid could and should use this rational and give up the figures. But there are reasons that clerical staff were vaccinated even when working from home.

Bottom line is that individuals were knowingly given the vaccine under his watch when they shouldn’t have - so a defence of it being “... for the greater good...” is just deflection plus HSE/Reid had no right to make that call- the more I hear on this the more untenable his position is and he’s some neck going on the radio and criticising the Beacon CEO ( albeit he deserves it) anyway I’ll leave it there as way off topic

[Nesta99]

I have every sympathy for his PRIVATE situation but do believe he and most of the guys at the top of the HSE are the best possible illustration of the Peter Principle where everyone is promoted until they reach their level of incompetence.

Fair play to you btw for speaking out when you saw records altered , its always easier to look away particularly in collegiate type of settings

I do see incompetence due to the nature of internal job appointments in management, less so in clinical leadership and Tony Holohon is certainly competent. Conversely the performance of Reid is being questioned and maybe with good reason but he is one person in the overall decision making process. His failings should not be deemed as widespread failings. We will have a very different HSE after all this anyway so will be an opportunity to restructure the organisation.

[sbgawa]

I think your being optimistic that the HSE will be different going forward , led by the likes of Reid who didnt exactly shine in the private sector.

Hope your right but unless they put competant people in at the top i think its unlikely.

How long has Holohan been off at this stage?

[Dalymountrower]

HSE and the agenciesit funds,is made up of over 100,000 staff.
The tiny number of staff at the point of the salary pyramid are paid multiples of salary compared to staff who keep the service ticking along.Clerical admin, doing boring stuff like updating medical records, lab assistants getting the assays right to allow for accurate diagnosis, Porters and reception staff trying to calmly deal with upset patients and relatives.When you take a cut at the "HSE" you are also taking a cut at those low paid staff.
Paul Reid, Stephen Donnelly, Robert Watt will sail majestically on to the next gig, leaving those staff plus of course the well regarded and well paid health professionals to pick up the pieces.

[sbgawa]

The likes of Watt sum it up, his "post" when he was temporarily covering was increased by 80k with the justification to bring in the best people , then they give it to him anyway....did they think he was about to leave LOL .
Most of the top guys in the HSE are basically failed private sector guys or career civil servants that get promotion based on seniority not ability.,

[gufct]

https://www.extratime.com/articles/27027/pat-devlin-i-am-very-disappointed-that-we-didnt-get-any-support-from-the-fai-in-this-situation/

This is unreal who does he think he is Ollie Byrne

[Bucket]

Bizarre interview in the Donald Trump style of deflecting blame.

1. Cabo aren't a big club.

2. Cabo signed up to the same rules as every other club.

3. Three players in the squad have the virus. How were only two players deemed close contacts to these three players?

4. You had nearly thirty players available to play against Utd, just as they were available to play against UCD.

5. Cabo let Galway Utd travel all the way to Dublin before telling them the game was off.

[sbgawa]

They were idiots for not playing, rules were clear

[vinnie]

The likes of Watt sum it up, his "post" when he was temporarily covering was increased by 80k with the justification to bring in the best people , then they give it to him anyway....did they think he was about to leave LOL .
Most of the top guys in the HSE are basically failed private sector guys or career civil servants that get promotion based on seniority not ability.,

sbgawa, Seniority was abolished years ago, not saying some of these lads didn't get it that way years ago, but it doesn't exist anymore, but I'm in the service over 20 years and have seen some shocking appointments, so regardless appointments could be better

[sbgawa]

officially abolished but not in reality.
Watts salary increase will cost the taxpayers 2 million or thereabouts by the time he retires and another million or so after he retires in pension payments.
But hes agreed to defer for 6 months or a year....what a laugh.

[Straightstory]

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/56805604

Despite the fact that 'the Republic of Ireland has one of Europe's lowest incidence rates of Covid-19'.

[pineapple stu]

Our current rates don't really mean we should have 15k people in Lansdowne Road this summer in fairness.

We allowed people to meet up at home over Christmas and within three weeks the ICU wards were full. This thing can still blow up quite rapidly.

[jbyrne]

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/56805604

Despite the fact that 'the Republic of Ireland has one of Europe's lowest incidence rates of Covid-19'.

given we had the highest in the world only back in January you cant blame the people in power for being cautious.

[Nesta99]

It was going to be a bit of a sickner to see those games in Dublin and not being involved so not too bothered. Maybe some badly needed revenue for the FAI but risks out weigh that.

[mcgonigle]

How much do the FAI stand to miss out on?

[Nesta99]

I dont know tbh but cant see it being less than €2m for 4 games regardless of crowds.

[redobit]

When they talk about 25% capacity is that just locals from that country. Or does it mean a portion of away fans too.

[pineapple stu]

I presume it means 10000 people in a 40000 capacity stadium

How tickets are divvied up, I don't know, though cancellations will help

[redobit]

I presume it means 10000 people in a 40000 capacity stadium

How tickets are divvied up, I don't know, though cancellations will help

Thanks I get how 25% capacity works. :p

What I'm wondering are UEFA expecting that people outside your country can go to the game. Whatever about having a stadium with people from Ireland. Having away fans travelling to, isolating, getting tested, accommodation could be a stumbling block too.

[pineapple stu]

Oops! I was wondering alright; seemed a strange question :p

I guess once they sell the tickets, they don't care who gets them? So if 10k Irish people buy Aviva tickets, that would allow a game to go ahead with no away fans. That's a guess though, although the Olympics are being held on that basis. I can't see international travel being back to normal in what - six weeks' time? And then where are people going to stay if hotels are still closed?

Don't envy UEFA on this tbh. It's not easy.

[John83]

given we had the highest in the world only back in January you cant blame the people in power for being cautious.
We've been in lockdown for 4 straight months. UEFA can go **** itself if it thinks it's ahead of the small businesses that have been closed for most of the past 13 months in the queue.

[Hitman]

We've been in lockdown for 4 straight months. UEFA can go **** itself if it thinks it's ahead of the small businesses that have been closed for most of the past 13 months in the queue.

Dead right.

https://i.imgur.com/4PXDUym.png]

[Nesta99]

Oops! I was wondering alright; seemed a strange question :p

I guess once they sell the tickets, they don't care who gets them? So if 10k Irish people buy Aviva tickets, that would allow a game to go ahead with no away fans. That's a guess though, although the Olympics are being held on that basis. I can't see international travel being back to normal in what - six weeks' time? And then where are people going to stay if hotels are still closed?

Don't envy UEFA on this tbh. It's not easy.

Naw, it isnt just Irish fans. it was expected that there would be allocations to the countries involved which is the main stumbling block. Potentially quarantine for fans weeks in advance of a game for which exemptions were sought so no chance. Capacity doesn't exist for those that may have been willing to quarantine so that is that.

[Straightstory]

Our current rates don't really mean we should have 15k people in Lansdowne Road this summer in fairness.

We allowed people to meet up at home over Christmas and within three weeks the ICU wards were full. This thing can still blow up quite rapidly.

There's a difference between respiratory infections (of which Covid is obviously one) in the middle of winter, when they're at a very high level, and the middle of summer. Also, at the Euros, people will be outside in huge stadiums, not congregating at home in their houses with the windows closed. I'd be amazed if modest crowds at stadiums during the Euros resulted in cases going up. These will not be super spreader events. The huge Black Lives protests last summer didn't lead to a surge in infections. If I'm wrong, I'll hold my hands up and admit it, but I don't expect to be. I think the government have made the wrong decision on this. Of course, if they turn out to be wrong, they won't say anything about it. ( I also suspect, if this was Ireland playing at the Aviva, people might feel differently).

[pineapple stu]

If I'm wrong, I'll hold my hands up and admit it, but I don't expect to be.
That's not really a realistic way to deal with a really nasty virus which has already clogged up ICU wards in various countries in fairness. And that's before factoring in the rise in variants, particularly the new Indian variant (https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0420/1210909-coronavirus-variant/).

Your post is also long on supposition and short on actual evidence in fairness. EL/CL games in Milan in March were classed as super-spreader events (albeit in mostly full stadia, but even with 15k, you've plenty of mingling outside the ground, and we've more transmissible variants now), and it's worth noting that in the six weeks after the end of May (when BLM protests started in the US), cases there quadrupled. There'd be lots of reasons for that of course, but can you really rule out the mass protests?

I'm with John83 on this tbh - we've waited far too long to re-open the country because of this, and there's no reason for the Euros to jump the queue and potentially shut everything down again

[sbgawa]

Vacinated people should be allowed attend LOI matches.
The Government are so afraid of social media and the likes of the Shinners they are afraid to make even obvious decisons on reopening.

[Straightstory]

'Actual evidence'? It's very evident that the virus is at it's worst in winter and less lethal in summer. NOBODY disagrees with that. And March is not high summer.
As I say, if I'm wrong about this I'll happily admit it.
We shall see...

[Straightstory]

Vacinated people should be allowed attend LOI matches.
The Government are so afraid of social media and the likes of the Shinners they are afraid to make even obvious decisons on reopening.
I agree.

[pineapple stu]

'Actual evidence'? It's very evident that the virus is at it's worst in winter and less lethal in summer. NOBODY disagrees with that. And March is not high summer.
Define "less lethal"? Because what we saw in Milan last March - which wasn't high summer, but was hardly winter either - was fairly lethal all the same. And India, most of which doesn't even have what we'd call a winter, is suffering quite badly at the moment. Is your "less lethal" enough of a reassurance to risk a huge surge again? It's all very easy for a random punter on the internet to say "If I'm wrong, I'll happily admit it", but for real life stuff, I'm happy to trust to medical experts, who are still advising caution.

[Nesta99]

That's not really a realistic way to deal with a really nasty virus which has already clogged up ICU wards in various countries in fairness. And that's before factoring in the rise in variants, particularly the new Indian variant (https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0420/1210909-coronavirus-variant/).

Your post is also long on supposition and short on actual evidence in fairness. EL/CL games in Milan in March were classed as super-spreader events (albeit in mostly full stadia, but even with 15k, you've plenty of mingling outside the ground, and we've more transmissible variants now), and it's worth noting that in the six weeks after the end of May (when BLM protests started in the US), cases there quadrupled. There'd be lots of reasons for that of course, but can you really rule out the mass protests?

I'm with John83 on this tbh - we've waited far too long to re-open the country because of this, and there's no reason for the Euros to jump the queue and potentially shut everything down again

And concerns about the efficacy of vaccinations against them. Far too many unknowns to risk it. When it comes to people wanting a quicker return to normality why would you host an event that there is even the slightest chance that it could delay the restoration of an open society. Wait and see how things pan out after other countries have played guinea pigs and base decisions on evidence across the board.

Time of the year makes no difference to covid-19 it is just as lethal and transmissible in June as it is in January. I think there may be some confusion here on seasonal concerns - Covid-19 on top of usual winter season pressures on the health system was raised as a worry in potentially overwhelming services, not that covid-19 itself changes throughout the year. It was this time last year that the virus still hitting hard and lockdown getting to grips with things heading in to May. No lockdown and numbers would have continued to soar throughout the summer of 2020.

[John83]

You have some seasonal effects because people spend more time indoors - which is pretty definitively where covid spreads best - when it's raining sideways outside. You get the same effect with all airborne diseases like colds and flus. Most of Europe seemed to be doing well last summer, but then they'd all just exited or were still under savage lockdowns and other places, Brazil for example, was absolutely not. 87% of the world's population lives in the northern hemisphere, so the global figures for cases and deaths per day (e.g. here (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)) are telling: they show only a very modest decrease in deaths and new cases last northern summer.

[Nesta99]

You have some seasonal effects because people spend more time indoors - which is pretty definitively where covid spreads best - when it's raining sideways outside. You get the same effect with all airborne diseases like colds and flus. Most of Europe seemed to be doing well last summer, but then they'd all just exited or were still under savage lockdowns and other places, Brazil for example, was absolutely not. 87% of the world's population lives in the northern hemisphere, so the global figures for cases and deaths per day (e.g. here (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)) are telling: they show only a very modest decrease in deaths and new cases last northern summer.

Some season effect, well ok but that is to do with peoples behavior patterns rather than a seasonal change to the virus transmission itself - is that enough to mitigate for lifting restrictions and taking the risk on an 'if' people do x. Irish summers are a mixed bag so no absolutes on all time spent outdoors. So there was little drop in cases/deaths in the northern Summer period - theres your argument that there is only a 'modest decrease' in covid cases in summer time no? Differences in samples from different times of the year will currently show trends heavily influenced by restrictions and total lockdown eg a drop in cases from May to October seen here. It would take a number of years to extrapolate real trends from season to season. There was one virologist's prediction last Spring and he seems to have been on the ball most (wish I could remember the name) - that we will continuously go through peaks and troughs as we lockdown and then ease restrictions and end up in lockdown again (or circuit breakers as 'lockdown' was being named) etc. until there is a vaccine (at that time there was none) or we achieved a zero covid island and closed borders. So while the cycle may have aligned seasonally over the last 12-16months it wont necessarily continue in that manner, while there may some seasonal deviation for the reasons you mention.

Here is a similar graph of ICU cases(and projections) from the UK but same idea if it were in the cycle of restrictions/ease restrictions = covid decrease/increase.
https://assets.weforum.org/editor/xMcVcR9GqimRRWAOX7Jc7Cl5srOz9ddk0-l78jhgnt4.JPG
I dont see how we could reasonably risk the suppression of cases by holding even 25% capacity crowds in the Aviva until the breaking of the above cycle is very likely, so vaccination of 75% of the population and really really hope that there isnt a vaccine resistant variant from Brazil/India or anywhere where there is a significant outbreak or we could be back to step 1. There are a number of confirmed cases of the India variant in the UK and it is a given that that number will rise after the large scale close proximity gatherings across England recently. Crazy stuff when 75% has not been achieved with 1st jab never mind 2nd. Political Russian Roulette and hoping to surf the wave of early vaccination momentum. Seeing how Scotland with a lot lower incidence rate, similar vaccination status, yet are only considering lifting some restrictions yet. We are far off the levels of vaccination to be able to agree to UEFA's demands on hosting Euro2020 games and the govt made the right call in the current circumstances!

[John83]

I agree completely. I just tend to take the contrary position in an argument if I think a point is being dismissed without sufficient care.

I will just note that it doesn't matter why risk might be lower in the summer - behavioural or viral - as long as it is. In any case, we agree that there isn't much evidence that it's enough lower to rely on it as a factor.

[Buller]

'Actual evidence'? It's very evident that the virus is at it's worst in winter and less lethal in summer. NOBODY disagrees with that. And March is not high summer.
As I say, if I'm wrong about this I'll happily admit it.
We shall see...

Thats misinformation. Any statistics on case numbers, hospitalisations and deaths show no link between seasons, but very strong correlations with social restrictions.
There's so much data on it at this stage its not really even up for debate.

Perhaps you read into Trumps "itll be gone by the summer" tweet last year a little too much?

[Nesta99]

I agree completely. I just tend to take the contrary position in an argument if I think a point is being dismissed without sufficient care.

I will just note that it doesn't matter why risk might be lower in the summer - behavioural or viral - as long as it is. In any case, we agree that there isn't much evidence that it's enough lower to rely on it as a factor.

Thats fair enough, I can often do the same and have done in this thread. It's easy to lump in from one perspective and not consider the different angles. Things rarely tend to be totally bad or good and especially with the unprecedented nature of all of this erring on the side of caution could be the quickest way out. I originally dismissed covid as scaremongering by tabloid press and obviously couldnt have been more wrong (though I doubt the tabloids really knew what was coming either)!:(

[Straightstory]

So I presume that you're all in agreement that that no crowds should be allowed into any stadiums hosting the competition? That by allowing crowds into grounds (even at 25 per cent capacity) EUEFA are being as reckless as Trump in the US or Bolsinaro in Brazil?

[John83]

So I presume that you're all in agreement that that no crowds should be allowed into any stadiums hosting the competition? That by allowing crowds into grounds (even at 25 per cent capacity) EUEFA are being as reckless as Trump in the US or Bolsinaro in Brazil?
As? No, but some caution is advised. As I've said, I think we have higher priorities than stadia. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I think this summer is just coming a little early.

[Straightstory]

I'd be interested in your definition of 'some caution is advised'? Should people be allowed in or not? Would a hundred people be acceptable? What's the difference between, for example, Dublin and Moscow? Not allowed in Dublin? Allowed in Moscow? Should there be a European standard?
I'm no expert on graphs, but this link here would indicate that there were less infections in June/July last year that there were in March/April or Nov/December (for whatever reason; staying indoors? Warmer weather?). But maybe I've misread it somehow?

https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-pandemic-one-year-on-trends-and-statistics-between-three-waves-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-ireland/

[redobit]

So I presume that you're all in agreement that that no crowds should be allowed into any stadiums hosting the competition? That by allowing crowds into grounds (even at 25 per cent capacity) EUEFA are being as reckless as Trump in the US or Bolsinaro in Brazil?

I'm all for caution on this believe me. But sooner or later you need to make relaxations. With one quarter of the population having received at least on dose then I think these people should be given so extra license, we cant just wait till 5 million people are vaccinated to open the place up again. A 20% stadium of vaccinated Irish people would be a good news story, good PR and probably good for the mental psyche of the country. The place needs a lift and this could be the catalyst for some positivity.

[pineapple stu]

I'd be interested in your definition of 'some caution is advised'? Should people be allowed in or not? Would a hundred people be acceptable? What's the difference between, for example, Dublin and Moscow? Not allowed in Dublin? Allowed in Moscow? Should there be a European standard?
I'm no expert on graphs, but this link here would indicate that there were less infections in June/July last year that there were in March/April or Nov/December (for whatever reason; staying indoors? Warmer weather?). But maybe I've misread it somehow?

https://publicpolicy.ie/papers/the-pandemic-one-year-on-trends-and-statistics-between-three-waves-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-ireland/
You might recall last Jun/Jul was just after the period of tightest lockdown, and one which people largely obeyed because of the novelty of it if nothing else. Of course it was going to have a lower infection rate than April (lockdown only starting) and Nov/Dec (restrictions relaxed ahead of Christmas, with the consequence that ICU was full by January). That doesn't at all back up your point that covid is less dangerous in summer.

[Straightstory]

I'm all for caution on this believe me. But sooner or later you need to make relaxations. With one quarter of the population having received at least on dose then I think these people should be given so extra license, we cant just wait till 5 million people are vaccinated to open the place up again. A 20% stadium of vaccinated Irish people would be a good news story, good PR and probably good for the mental psyche of the country. The place needs a lift and this could be the catalyst for some positivity.

That's a reasonable and sensible response, but I'm still interested in whether people believe there should be crowds allowed at any Euro other venues. I'm getting the impression that everyone believes that there should be no crowds allowed anywhere?