LOI In Europe 2020

[pineapple stu]

Brian Kerr didn't mice his words about Dundalk on Off the Ball this morning. No great shakes, low quality play during most of the match last night, got the easiest draw possible, and their stadium is an embarrasment. To be fair, at least some of those things are somewhat true.
I think they're all true (as is placid casual's post - maybe he's Brian Kerr? :p)

But today's not the day for it. Well done Dundalk; you can only beat what's in front of you, and there's some interesting ties which all the rest of us would like coming up in front of ye shortly!

[paul_oshea]

Arsenal
Rapid vienna
Molde
Dundalk

Couldn't have asked for a better draw. 1 big big team and then one or two possible games with decent results.

[Real ale Madrid]

Great draw for Dundalk.

[CorribsideSteve]

Group B; Molde, Rapid Vienna and Arsenal for Dundalk. Shamrock Rovers beat Molde a year or two ago, so should give Dundalk some confidence there. Rapid Vienna will be a big challenge though. The Austrian League is no joke and Man United had a tough enough game against Linz a few months ago. Arsenal the obvious glamour game there. Could have been much worse!

[Real ale Madrid]

Group B; Molde, Rapid Vienna and Arsenal for Dundalk. Shamrock Rovers beat Molde a year or two ago, so should give Dundalk some confidence there. Rapid Vienna will be a big challenge though. The Austrian League is no joke and Man United had a tough enough game against Linz a few months ago. Arsenal the obvious glamour game there. Could have been much worse!

Sligo Rovers beat them over there a while back but lost in Sligo after. Shamrock Rovers havn't played them.

[pineapple stu]

Shamrock Rovers beat Molde a year or two ago, so should give Dundalk some confidence there.
No they didn't - are you thinking of Brann?

Molde are Norwegian champions, so that's a tough draw in the EL.

Dundalk will be doing well to get a point out of that to be quite honest, but sure **** it; the alternative was losing to Andorran/Faroese teams.

Obviously the fans are the big losers here - three great away venues if travel were allowed.

[pineapple stu]

Sligo Rovers beat them over there a while back but lost in Sligo after. Shamrock Rovers havn't played them.
Sligo beat Rosenborg away in 2014. They lost home and away to Molde in 2013 (1-0 and 2-0)

[Nesta99]

And here's me thinking I was being nice.
Just a bit of good natured ribbing at your luck, but no malice or jealously intended.
Hope the draw goes well for you boys today, and see you in the cup final, maybe.

Well yer no fun at all PC, I was looking forward to a slanging match! Bar Sheriff, not the force they were seemingly, I dont think anyone could say we didnt get the luck of the draw. Who'd have known that last years conquerers Slovan catching covid back in CLQR1 would be of benefit to us. That said, previous years we have tended to get a few mare draws. I still say that the turmoil about the club and team that it was still an achievement to get past 3 sides regardless. I'd say KI are kicking themselves in the way that we have against the likes of Slovan and Celje - could have done better, missed opportunity, played quite well but didnt do enough or werent clinical enough. They werent at all a bad side last night and the fine margins at this level were there eg Garts heading the ball off the line. We probably all have been there too. We should also be looking to beat mid-table Finnish sides easier considering that have never won in Europe, have damn all domestic success too, but Rovers got over the line in a mammoth peno shootout. Better against Milan but I dont think KI and Ives were miles apart in standard.

To properly build rankings we need to do more than in a champions pathway to progress. At least 2 sides pushing in to latter rounds should be an objective for the league - we havent been far off either with Derry taking things to et and Bohs to penos too (Fehraver went out on penos to french opposition for some context). Rovers through 1 round before a nightmare draw and Dundalk in to EL groups. Not sure anyone would have had that in predictions.

[paul_oshea]

That was years ago when ole was in charge 7 years or so. Very different side.

[CorribsideSteve]

No they didn't - are you thinking of Brann?

Molde are Norwegian champions, so that's a tough draw in the EL.

Dundalk will be doing well to get a point out of that to be quite honest, but sure **** it; the alternative was losing to Andorran/Faroese teams.

Obviously the fans are the big losers here - three great away venues if travel were allowed.

Yeah, sorry, was of course thinking of Brann

[Scrufil]

Would I be correct in saying that there are home & away matches in the group stages, back to 3 subs, no VAR, Dundalk to play in Tallagh if Aviva unavailable, 30% stadium capacity fans allowed if Dublin down to stage 2 Covid regulations?

[ger121]

Molde beat Celje 2-1 at home in the 2nd qualifying round. Beat Qarabag on penalties, then out on away goals after 2 draws with Ferencvaros. Decent side but maybe something in those 2 games for Dundalk. Rapid qualified directly from the CL League Path 3rd qualifying round after losing to Gent. So only had to win one tie to get to groups. You would be thinking that Dundalk would be targeting the home game for points in that one too. Arsenal should run away with the group so could be a dogfight for 2nd.

[Scrufil]

But its only boring, boring Arsenal...

[Scrufil]

...former home of the super-god Theirry Henrey.

[Yossarian]

Would I be correct in saying that there are home & away matches in the group stages, back to 3 subs, no VAR, Dundalk to play in Tallagh if Aviva unavailable, 30% stadium capacity fans allowed if Dublin down to stage 2 Covid regulations?

The 30% attendance is the maximum UEFA are allowing but the local government regulations will take priority. I think at level 2 currently the max would be 500. I can’t see the government allowing thousands into the Aviva for a game when they are now telling people to only mix with one other household.

No away fans are behind allowed by UEFA either.

It’s a good draw really. No travel to far flung destinations and there is potential to pick up points along with some glamour of a big name club.

[sbgawa]

Brian Kerr always strikes me as a bitter old guy who thinks he is better than he is .
Having said that unless DFC up their peformance levels to somewhere like they should be it could be a long 6 games.
TBH at this stage does it really matter, those that hate the league hate the league..

[pineapple stu]

Arsenal should run away with the group so could be a dogfight for 2nd.
It depends how seriously they take it I guess. Spurs didn't make it out of their group with Rovers (and PAOK/Kazan) back in 2011. The CL spot for the overall winners is some motivation, but they've still a tendency to put out young teams in this I think. They should still win the group though.

Molde/Rapid are much of a muchness I'd say, so they'll probably be very much targetting 6 points from Dundalk to try sneak second place. They'll know they can't afford to slip up in those two.

Interesting times though.

[placid casual]

I think they're all true (as is placid casual's post - maybe he's Brian Kerr? :p)!
Well... I've had some insults in my time, but that... that.. is.. one if the worst.
How very dare you compare me to that rasher from drimnagh..
You are going on my little black book for that, stu. 😠😠😠🤬🤬

[paul_oshea]

Brian Kerr always strikes me as a bitter old guy who thinks he is better than he is .
Having said that unless DFC up their peformance levels to somewhere like they should be it could be a long 6 games.
TBH at this stage does it really matter, those that hate the league hate the league..

Agree with pretty much all that, but i think the draw is good for the reason that its not or should not now be 3-0 4-0 losses away from home. That would just give ammunition to those ready to fire.

What i find funny is there seems to be big media interest and general public interest and a sense of achievement, which just kind of shows how much the general public understands/knows about the whole qualifying process, because lets be honest its a very large slice of luck that got Dundalk here. They'll be the same people then saying oh the league is sh1te, dundalk are sh1te etc etc.

Geysir must be getting the schoolkids ready to perform the club anthem again so they can do it in person when the plane touches down.

[passinginterest]

It's a nice draw. Massive pity for Dundalk fans that they'll be lucky to be allowed very limited attendance at home games and can't go to what would be lovely away venues. As others have said, realistically Dundalk will do well to come away with a couple of points, but you'd hope they should be competitive at least in most games. Would be worried that Arsenal are one of those teams that occasionally can rip a team to shreds and on a bad night for Dundalk it could end up 6 or 7 nil, but hopefully that won't happen.

[Mr A]

Amazing for Dundalk to get to test themselves against opposition of unquestioned quality and international prestige.

But enough about Sunday, nice Euro draw for them.

[Kiki Balboa]

What is the highest LOI have been in UEFA coefficients? We are on course to be 37 next year. Is that the highest?

[pineapple stu]

We were 29th in 2010 - there's a 10-year graph here (https://kassiesa.net/uefa/graphs/).

We're actually still on course to drop to 46th in 2022, probably not helped by there being only half the number of games this year (the "second legs" were all scored as draws)

[paul_oshea]

https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2020/1002/1169073-dundalk-will-offer-giovagnoli-job-on-permanent-basis/

Are the Americans great now again. Great wisdom and foresight :rolleyes: :D FFfos

[The Lilywhites]

Molde at home in the first game.

Great chance to start off with a win.

[Nesta99]

Couldnt ask for a whole lot more in the draw. Mix of the glamour with the chance of maybe picking up a few points. It certainly raises the hairs on the back of the neck seeing your team being drawn at this level. The committment of the owners was probably being tested and then out of nowhere group stages happen again. Not quite keeping the wolf from the door but certainly a huge relief for Dundalk fans as that game last night was a marker one way or another. They are all free hits from now on in Europe this season. Qualifying for Europe next season isnt in the bag so next big target!

[sbgawa]

If I take my congratulating dfc hat off for a moment one positive of dfc qualifying for group stages from a narrow rovers perspective is they might be forced to sign back all the current squad as the el go's up to december

[Yossarian]

If I take my congratulating dfc hat off for a moment one positive of dfc qualifying for group stages from a narrow rovers perspective is they might be forced to sign back all the current squad as the el go's up to december

I would imagine that as the Dundalk squad (like Rovers) are on full time 52 week contracts, that the contracts due to expire would run to the end of the year/season. The positive side is that a bit more stability and financial security with this Europa League qualification will lead to the players that we would like to keep deciding to stay.

[Ezeikial]

I would imagine that as the Dundalk squad (like Rovers) are on full time 52 week contracts, that the contracts due to expire would run to the end of the year/season. The positive side is that a bit more stability and financial security with this Europa League qualification will lead to the players that we would like to keep deciding to stay.

Wishful thinking on sbgawa's part. Even if any contracts were not 52 weeks finishing end December, it would be bizarre to extend the contract of a player you did not want for him to sit on the bench or in the stand for a couple of Europa League matches.

It's really a moot issue anyway because of the 52 week contracts you mention.

What is much more interesting is the possibility of EL group participation raising the profile of the club and potentially boosting the attractiveness to some players.

The greater stability and financial security you mention is relevant not just to current players about to go out-of-contract, but also to domestic and overseas players who may be on the clubs radar

[placid casual]

What is much more interesting is the possibility of EL group participation raising the profile of the club and potentially boosting the attractiveness to some players.


... And then they see the ground, hear about owner interference, see the age profile of the main players... And then say eh, no thanks.

And you end up getting a boez player or 2, some yank from MSL division 4(if it exists) no one's ever heard of and a young fellah from drogs..

[Nesta99]

We were 29th in 2010 - there's a 10-year graph here (https://kassiesa.net/uefa/graphs/).

We're actually still on course to drop to 46th in 2022, probably not helped by there being only half the number of games this year (the "second legs" were all scored as draws)

Some pretty mad climbs and falls in some of those rankings, Scotland being one which may be to do with Rangers getting back in to the domestic top 2. Ajerbaijan and Hungary have serious fluctuations too. Maybe a couple more but the graph is a bit crowded. Be interesting to see what the causes were - investment, teams going bang, or a series of lucky draws. NI climb is good but can be put down to the additional preliminary rounds and some good results,

[Nesta99]

... And then they see the ground, hear about owner interference, see the age profile of the main players... And then say eh, no thanks.

And you end up getting a boez player or 2, some yank from MSL division 4(if it exists) no one's ever heard of and a young fellah from drogs..

Or they could use their involvment in Roma, St Etienne, former contacts at Bournemouth and maybe Swansea, and look to strengthen with loan deals or fringe squad players. Garts and Rogers inflate the average age, McMillan too, but the majority of the rest have a few years yet being in the 28ish bracket. Young squad in 2016, experienced squad 2020 but not past it. Injury prone signings, some of which are starting to get the breaks. The fall in performances seemed to be coaching led. Whther this coach has what it takes against really top opposition we dont know yet but one ting for sure is that the players like what they see and thats considering upping training to double sessions and binning the Wednesday free day too.

[pineapple stu]

Or they could use their involvment in Roma, St Etienne, former contacts at Bournemouth and maybe Swansea, and look to strengthen with loan deals or fringe squad players.
They could - but they don't seem to have done that in the past couple of years have they? Recruitment seems to have been very poor since 2016. What's going to change now?


Garts and Rogers inflate the average age, McMillan too
Serious maths error there Nesta! You can't take out the oldest players because they inflate the average. They're an intrinsic part of the average.

[Asterix]

Or they could use their involvment in Roma, St Etienne, former contacts at Bournemouth and maybe Swansea, and look to strengthen with loan deals or fringe squad players. Garts and Rogers inflate the average age, McMillan too, but the majority of the rest have a few years yet being in the 28ish bracket. Young squad in 2016, experienced squad 2020 but not past it. Injury prone signings, some of which are starting to get the breaks. The fall in performances seemed to be coaching led. Whther this coach has what it takes against really top opposition we dont know yet but one ting for sure is that the players like what they see and thats considering upping training to double sessions and binning the Wednesday free day too.

They sold their shares in Rome a few months ago and I dont think the St Etienne deal happened in the end.

[John83]

Serious maths error there Nesta! You can't take out the oldest players because they inflate the average. They're an intrinsic part of the average.
He's arguing that the median age is more relevant than the mean. ;)

[pineapple stu]

Let's see how that works in two years when Rogers has retired and recruitment has again let them down. "Ah well if you ignore our goalkeeper, we've got an excellent team"

[Nesta99]

They could - but they don't seem to have done that in the past couple of years have they? Recruitment seems to have been very poor since 2016. What's going to change now?


Serious maths error there Nesta! You can't take out the oldest players because they inflate the average. They're an intrinsic part of the average.

I wasnt taking them out though so not recalculating the average age, but it does inflate the average age profile of the squad no?

Some out of left field (non American) potential signings were identified by the Bournmouth scouting network. It certainly was in the plans to utilise other club assets to also scout for players with a suitable profile for Dundalk. Adorjan was from Italian circles. But there seems to have been issues between club and former manager on player recruitment, it may not have been all to do with American players. Coaching staff did travel to watch players that were flagged up, whether they were ones signed I dont know. Imo there is too much player agent involvement, most likely pushing thier own clients on the owners/chairman even if they are not an improvement on whats there already. Before Peak6 we did sign lads whose careers had gone off the rails to try and get them going again. Towell, Maguire the higher profile ones, Clifford, McDermot, Kinsella the disappointments alhough there may have been personal issues with Clifford.

[pineapple stu]

Why didn't you talk about the youngest players as well so - after all, they deflate the average ago, no?

Seriously, you can't talk about the average age while cherry picking a few people to take out. It's like talking about the Romans while ignoring the aqueduct, the roads and public 'ealth.

[John83]

Why didn't you talk about the youngest players as well so - after all, they deflate the average ago, no?

Seriously, you can't talk about the average age while cherry picking a few people to take out. It's like talking about the Romans while ignoring the aqueduct, the roads and public 'ealth.
Let it go, PS. It's not irrelevant to say that the squad can be rejuvenated with a 2-3 good signings any more than it is to point out that there's reason to be wary that those signings may not come. Outliers are relevant in discussions of statistics too.

[pineapple stu]

I disagree (and I'm surprised with you backing it up tbh)

It is an ageing squad and that presents a number of problems - for example potentially having to find and bed in those new players at the same time, which could easily lead to a transition season Dundalk can't really afford.

I think it's a relevant point to discuss rather than avoid with bad maths.

[sbgawa]

Whatever about ages the quality in the squad beyond the first 11 is poor and I would have always thought that was the key advantage dfc had for a couple of years lately. Big squad overhaul needed and integrating players isn't easy. The players on 52 week contracts that the club are running the clock down on will not be happy bunnies as new contracts are handed out to those staying on. In those circumstances some marginal calls get made to give extensions to keep the dressing room happy. But overall it's still a nice problem to have given the alternative was lose to Ki and lose 2m + this year.

[placid casual]

Is Duffy out of contract there at seasons end. His decision one way or the other could be seen as a weather vane for their hope next season.
He'd be welcome at all other LOI clubs anyway, including Rovers.

[holidaysong]

Yes his contract is up this year. I agree to some extent but he might just fancy moving on either way or trying his luck in England. So it might not necessarily indicate a lack of ambition on the side of the owners. Having said that I think it's crucial to resign him. When he resigned 2 years ago it was right at the end of the season if I remember correctly so I assume he was continuing to keep his options open.

[Kiki Balboa]

They could - but they don't seem to have done that in the past couple of years have they? Recruitment seems to have been very poor since 2016. What's going to change now?

Another take... Duffy and Hoare both signed after 2016 (fantastic players). Murray scored twice in Europe, along with Cleary, again signed after 2016. Leahy and Sloggett can be easily key players next year. Dundalks recruitmeng hasn't been fantastic , but we still won two leagues since, and we have definitely brought in talent since 2016.

For comparison to Dundalk, look at Corks recruitment, and you will see poor.

[Ezeikial]

Whatever about ages the quality in the squad beyond the first 11 is poor and I would have always thought that was the key advantage dfc had for a couple of years lately. Big squad overhaul needed and integrating players isn't easy. The players on 52 week contracts that the club are running the clock down on will not be happy bunnies as new contracts are handed out to those staying on. In those circumstances some marginal calls get made to give extensions to keep the dressing room happy. But overall it's still a nice problem to have given the alternative was lose to Ki and lose 2m + this year.

I'd be interested to hear who you view in the first 11 so I can understand all the players you think are poor quality - it should be an interesting 13-15 person list!

There is little doubt that there have been deficits in recruitment over that last few years that will result in missing out on a 3-in -row-title wins this year. My view is that this is most obvious is the no 8 and no 10 positions and that 3-5 of the right signings could deal with the overall team / squad issues.

It is not important that players who are being released are kept happy. I certainly don't envisage players who are considered surplus / not good enough being selected to play against Molde or Arsenal for example unless injuries or suspensions require it.

Giving unwanted players new contracts is one of the most bizarre suggestions I have heard - you are surpassing yourself

[Nesta99]

That would exactly be the case with Duffy, it would be an indication of where things could go. I wouldnt be at all surprised that he would wants to move and try his hand at the UK though regardless of the clubs desire to do all hey can o keep him.

You are right Stu I could equally have referred to younger players bringing down an age profile, the difference of course is that there is greater focus on an aging squad. A squad that really there are the majority of player hitting the so called footballers prime, or younger, than there are that are soon likely due to move on. I'm not saying that players are up to scratch just that its a bit of a myth that this Dundalk squad is ageing beyond their prime. Average is 25, if Garts and Rogers were to retire it would be 23 and our 80 year old listed in the squad raises it to 27. I say this having shown that math isnt a strong point so Im open to being humiliated and corrected. But you get the point I am making Stu regardless if I am violating some mathematical principles by removing 2 of our older players that may very well not be in the squad by next season. McMillan and Massey could also be added. Of course they could all stay but its still a misnomer to say the squad is old.

[sbgawa]

I'd be interested to hear who you view in the first 11 so I can understand all the players you think are poor quality - it should be an interesting 13-15 person list!

There is little doubt that there have been deficits in recruitment over that last few years that will result in missing out on a 3-in -row-title wins this year. My view is that this is most obvious is the no 8 and no 10 positions and that 3-5 of the right signings could deal with the overall team / squad issues.

It is not important that players who are being released are kept happy. I certainly don't envisage players who are considered surplus / not good enough being selected to play against Molde or Arsenal for example unless injuries or suspensions require it.

Giving unwanted players new contracts is one of the most bizarre suggestions I have heard - you are surpassing yourself

I didn't mean unwanted players EZ I meant marginal call players may be kept as the manager is bound to want to have as many happy players as possible in the dressing room..
Regards the strength in depth of the team the only players on the pitch against rovers I would say are positive to the dfc squad are shields, Colovic and maybe oduwa if he could be persuaded to track back. I'm probably forgetting someone obvious as I haven't gone looking for the tea.sheet but that was my take.

[A N Mouse]

We were 29th in 2010 - there's a 10-year graph here (https://kassiesa.net/uefa/graphs/).

We're actually still on course to drop to 46th in 2022, probably not helped by there being only half the number of games this year (the "second legs" were all scored as draws)

That's the starting position for 22/23 season. i.e. before a ball is kicked in 21/22. So the big drop is the 2.6 from 16/17.

Conceivably a few results from dundalk could see us back in the thirties, before that ball is kicked next year.

[pineapple stu]

Another take... Duffy and Hoare both signed after 2016 (fantastic players). Murray scored twice in Europe, along with Cleary, again signed after 2016. Leahy and Sloggett can be easily key players next year. Dundalks recruitmeng hasn't been fantastic , but we still won two leagues since, and we have definitely brought in talent since 2016.

For comparison to Dundalk, look at Corks recruitment, and you will see poor.
I'm not saying all Dundalk's recruitment has been poor. Yes, Cork's has been worse for sure, and Dundalk have signed some decent players in the past four years. But on balance it's been poor, as you acknowledge in the post. I think there's been more misses than hits, for example.

[pineapple stu]

I'm not saying that players are up to scratch just that its a bit of a myth that this Dundalk squad is ageing beyond their prime. Average is 25, if Garts and Rogers were to retire it would be 23 and our 80 year old listed in the squad raises it to 27. Of course they could all stay but its still a misnomer to say the squad is old.
I don't think your maths are correct there. I've taken the squad details off wiki and the average age (excluding the three guys out on loan, and the keeper born in 1820) is 27.8. Take Gartland and Rogers out and it drops to 27.0 (but of course by March, the earliest they'll retire, everyone else will be five months older). There's only two players under 24 (Patching and Leahy), so the average age can't be close to 23?

So I don't think it's a misnomer to call it an old squad. Rovers' squad is a year younger (26.7), but they have eight players under 24, so I think their age profile is a bit healthier.