Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

[shakermaker1982]

Check the date Condex of the PDF!

[boovidge]

we must be the only country that doesnt know if theyre seeded

[Closed Account]

we must be the only country that doesnt know if theyre seeded
FFS, we know we are seeded, FAI and UEFA have confirmed it.

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html

7 Croatia 32723 Euro 2012 Playoffs
11 Portugal 31202 Euro 2012 Playoffs
13 Ireland 28203 Euro 2012 Playoffs
15 Czech Republic 27982 Euro 2012 Playoffs
--------------------------------------------------------------------
18 Turkey 27601 Euro 2012 Playoffs
19 Bosnia and Herzegovina 27198 Euro 2012 Playoffs
35 Montenegro 21876 Euro 2012 Playoffs
37 Estonia 20354 Euro 2012 Playoffs

[Irwin3]

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

3rd seeds.

[French Toasht]

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

3rd seeds.


I know this is mere conjecture but there is no possibility we would be 3rd seeds should we qualify for Euro 2012.

Maybe you are forgetting to include Ukraine and Poland as top seeds despite the fact they are ranked below us.

Because even if Croatia and Portugal both loose their playoff we would still only be ranked 13th for the tournament (ie the best 4th seeded team).

My understanding is that:

The standings are as such:

1st seeds:

Poland
Ukraine
Spain
Holland

2nd Seeds:

Germany
Italy
England
Russia

3rd Seeds:

Greece
Sweden
Denmark
Croatia * provided they win their playoff

4th Seeds:

Portugal * provided they win their playoff
France
Ireland
Czech/Turkey/Bosnia/Montenegro/Estonia

Its my understanding that as far as seedings for Euro 2012 go, its determined purely on the last 3 campaigns and not playoffs, so we can't pick up any extra ranking points in the playoffs.

[Closed Account]

Its my understanding that as far as seedings for Euro 2012 go, its determined purely on the last 3 campaigns and not playoffs, so we can't pick up any extra ranking points in the playoffs.
I think he was just saying that we are 3rd seeds for the playoffs. (Technically there is only seeded and unseeded).

But I think you're wrong about the playoff games not counting towards the coefficient. In fact, Playoff matches carry an extra 6,000 points to each team regardless of the result.
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/competitions/Regulations/91/48/36/914836_DOWNLOAD.pdf
They don't mention anything about these playoffs not counting.

Edit: Dammin Frenchie, I'm wrong, you are right:

B. Final tournament
8.01 The UEFA Executive Committee has entrusted the Polish Football Association
(PZPN) and the Football Federation of Ukraine (FFU) with the joint organisation
and staging of the final tournament.
Group formation
8.02 The UEFA administration divides the 16 teams that qualify for the final tournament
into four groups (A, B, C, D) of four teams each.
8.03 By means of a draw, the four groups are formed as follows:

Group A Group B Group C Group D
A1 B1 C1 D1
A2 B2 C2 D2
A3 B3 C3 D3
A4 B4 C4 D4

Coefficients
8.04 The seeded teams are the host associations, with the reigning European
champions if they qualify, and one or two teams with the best coefficients
according to the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see Annex I,
paragraph 1.2.2). The other finalists are assigned to the four groups by means of a
draw, according to their coefficients.
8.05 If any of the teams in question have the same coefficient, the criteria listed in
paragraph 7.02 apply. Results from the play-offs referred to in paragraph 7.07 are
thereby not taken into consideration.
Two ways of interpretting that. A) Playoffs aren't taken into consideration in the event of the same coefficient. But that wouldn't make sense because if playoffs are considered then you wouldn't have same coefficient and B) 2012 Playoffs aren't taken into consideration fullstop.

So our coefficent isn't going to change, and if we qualify, we'll be in Pot 4. Which mighn't be such a bad thing as we might avoid Portugal and France based on that.

The ammendments at the end do confirm that there is a draw for Home/Away legs by the way:

7.07 The eight remaining runners-up contest play-off matches. The four ties are
determined by means of a draw. The four runners-up with the best position in
the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see Annex I, paragraph
1.2.2) are seeded for the draw. If any of the teams in question have the same
coefficient, the criteria listed in paragraph 7.02 apply. The play-offs are played
according to the knockout system, with each team playing each opponent
twice, in home and away matches. {striked}The seeded teams play the return match
at home.{striked} The order of the two matches will be established by draw. The
teams which score the greater aggregate of goals in the two matches qualify
for the final tournament. Otherwise, the provisions of paragraph 7.08 apply.

[Irwin3]

I know this is mere conjecture but there is no possibility we would be 3rd seeds should we qualify for Euro 2012.

Maybe you are forgetting to include Ukraine and Poland as top seeds despite the fact they are ranked below us.

Because even if Croatia and Portugal both loose their playoff we would still only be ranked 13th for the tournament (ie the best 4th seeded team).

My understanding is that:

The standings are as such:

1st seeds:

Poland
Ukraine
Spain
Holland

2nd Seeds:

Germany
Italy
England
Russia

3rd Seeds:

Greece
Sweden
Denmark
Croatia * provided they win their playoff

4th Seeds:

Portugal * provided they win their playoff
France
Ireland
Czech/Turkey/Bosnia/Montenegro/Estonia

Its my understanding that as far as seedings for Euro 2012 go, its determined purely on the last 3 campaigns and not playoffs, so we can't pick up any extra ranking points in the playoffs.


As joe_denilson said I was pointing out that we were the 3rd of the seeded teams for the playoffs.

[chelsea]

at the end of the day if ireland show heart and determination and actually want it more then they should have no worries in beating any of the 4 teams that havent been seeded

[Closed Account]

Right, not getting ahead of ourselves, theoretically should we qualify, we'll definately be in Pot 4. Hypothetically speaking, we can't get enough points in the playoffs to catch France on UEFA coefficient.
http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/10/euro-2012-how-play-offs-affect-pots.html (http://www.football-rankings.info/)

Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot 2: Germany, Italy, England, (Russia(Croatia))
Pot 3: Greece, Sweden, (Denmark, France, (Portugal, Croatia))
Pot 4: All play-off teams, bar Croatia and Portugal

I'd conceivably take Poland, Anyone but Germany and Greece please Bob.

[geysir]

Every sentence should include 'theoretically' or 'hypothetically speaking'.

Theoretically, a team can draw the team from their own qualifying group?

[pineapple stu]

Nothing to stop Estonia from drawing Italy again, no. :)

[French Toasht]

I think he was just saying that we are 3rd seeds for the playoffs. (Technically there is only seeded and unseeded).

But I think you're wrong about the playoff games not counting towards the coefficient. In fact, Playoff matches carry an extra 6,000 points to each team regardless of the result.
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/competitions/Regulations/91/48/36/914836_DOWNLOAD.pdf
They don't mention anything about these playoffs not counting.




Edit: Dammin Frenchie, I'm wrong, you are right:

Two ways of interpretting that. A) Playoffs aren't taken into consideration in the event of the same coefficient. But that wouldn't make sense because if playoffs are considered then you wouldn't have same coefficient and B) 2012 Playoffs aren't taken into consideration fullstop.

So our coefficent isn't going to change, and if we qualify, we'll be in Pot 4. Which mighn't be such a bad thing as we might avoid Portugal and France based on that.

The ammendments at the end do confirm that there is a draw for Home/Away legs by the way:



Yes I figured playoffs wouldn't count because it would be pretty arbitrary for us to get the benefit of playoff points and thus jump above say Denmark who qualified outright.

Again, lets get by Estonia but the irrespective of the fact we'll be in pot 4, tha doesn't neccessarily preclude a handy enough group. For example How does Poland, Russia, Denmark and Ireland sound?

[lionelhutz]

Or Spain, Germany, France and Ireland?

[Edgar]

Playoffs do count. See on UEFA.com (http://www.uefa.com/uefa/mediaservices/mediareleases/newsid=1692683.html).

"The reigning champion Spain will also be top seed, together with the team with the highest national team coefficient ranking, as established at the conclusion of the play-off matches"

[Closed Account]

Playoffs do count. See on UEFA.com (http://www.uefa.com/uefa/mediaservices/mediareleases/newsid=1692683.html).

"The reigning champion Spain will also be top seed, together with the team with the highest national team coefficient ranking, as established at the conclusion of the play-off matches"
Ya, figured that out eventually. When they say
Results from the play-offs referred to in paragraph 7.07 are
thereby not taken into consideration. , what they meant was that if hypothetically Ireland and France finished level(we can't), then only coefficient points from the last campaign, excluding playoffs, are taken into consideration.

[French Toasht]

Playoffs do count. See on UEFA.com (http://www.uefa.com/uefa/mediaservices/mediareleases/newsid=1692683.html).

"The reigning champion Spain will also be top seed, together with the team with the highest national team coefficient ranking, as established at the conclusion of the play-off matches"


Thanks for that Edgar. So what would you reckon realistically is our chances of making the third pot?

Do we need to rely on both Portugal and Croatia losing their playoff matches or could we still qualify for the third pot, with 2 wins over Estonia, even if both Portugal and Croatia qualify?

[Closed Account]

Thanks for that Edgar. So what would you reckon realistically is our chances of making the third pot?

Do we need to rely on both Portugal and Croatia losing their playoff matches or could we still qualify for the third pot, with 2 wins over Estonia, even if both Portugal and Croatia qualify?
No we can't reach Pot 3, even 2 wins wouldn't catch France.

[Kingdom]

Ukraine, Croatia, Denmark please Bob. There are a couple of horrendous, really really horrendous draws we could get.

[shakermaker1982]

I want England or France!!!

[boovidge]

what about England? I'd love for us to play them again in a finals (theoretically and hypothetically speaking)

[Kingdom]

I'd take 1 win and 2 draws right now. Hypothetically.

Someone who might have a maths head on them.....if a team was to get 5 points in a group, can they be eliminated?

[Charlie Darwin]

If we get to the finals, I'd love to draw England, if only because I know we would lift our performance for that game at least. There are definitely draws that are tougher than others but in reality we are going to deservedly be bottom seeds and will need to defeat better/higher-achieving teams no matter who we get.

[Kingdom]

Any combination of Spain, Holland, Germany, Russia, would not be good. On the other hand we could definitely eck something from Poland, Ukraine, England and Italy. England would have us written off from the get-go, which would be to our advantage.

Portugal probably to be avoided, and personally I wouldn't want France, but after that open season!

[tetsujin1979]

any chance we can lock any and all UEFA 2012 group stage talk until after the play off?
The last thing any of us want to do is jinx this.

[Charlie Darwin]

Didn't have you pegged as superstitious tets.

[Kingdom]

any chance we can lock any and all UEFA 2012 group stage talk until after the play off?
The last thing any of us want to do is jinx this.

I certainly have lost the run of myself. I f*king love it!

[tetsujin1979]

Didn't have you pegged as superstitious tets.
Seriously? I'm very superstitious when it comes to football, part of my pre match ritual under Kerr's reign was to get the same bus into town, have a chicken burger in Burger King on O'Connell Street (the one nearest the bridge), and walk to the stadium.

[Kingdom]

Seriously? I'm very superstitious when it comes to football, part of my pre match ritual under Kerr's reign was to get the same bus into town, have a chicken burger in Burger King on O'Connell Street (the one nearest the bridge), and walk to the stadium.

If I'd have known, I'd have suggested you change after israel at home. never doubt the power of the whopper.

[Charlie Darwin]

Seriously? I'm very superstitious when it comes to football, part of my pre match ritual under Kerr's reign was to get the same bus into town, have a chicken burger in Burger King on O'Connell Street (the one nearest the bridge), and walk to the stadium.
Meticulous planning worthy of Kerr himself.

[punkrocket]

Just thanked you there Charlie to change the number of thanks you've got, can't too careful.

[punkrocket]

And it stayed at 666. WTF?

[tetsujin1979]

If I'd have known, I'd have suggested you change after israel at home. never doubt the power of the whopper.I actualy didn't follow it for the Israel game, I was in Limerick that morning and got the train up.
So, it wasn't Dudu Awat, or Andy O'Brien, or Robbie Keane's shoulder, it was my train journey!

[geysir]

Regretfully I think so Tets, the point of the OCD related behaviour before a match, is not that what you do will benefit the team, but if the team loses, your conscience is clear.

[BonnieShels]

And it stayed at 666. WTF?

You didn't honestly think it would change did you? Charlie has reached the plateau. He has opened the gates to hell and the minions will spring forth. Muwha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

[punkrocket]

Lady's Well I Cork I hope:beer::beer:

[BonnieShels]

Lady's Well I Cork I hope:beer::beer:

Langers from the 'Well, Minions from Hell!

[punkrocket]

The way our lucks going just lately I knew that Trap must have done a deal with someone

[French Toasht]

I'd take 1 win and 2 draws right now. Hypothetically.

Someone who might have a maths head on them.....if a team was to get 5 points in a group, can they be eliminated?


Yes its mathematically possible to be eliminated with 5 points. We feared this would happen in our WC 2002 group.

Coming into the final match the table stood like this:

Germany 4 (beaten Saudi and drawn with Ireland)
Cameroon 4 (Drawn with Ireland and beaten Saudi)
Ireland 2 (Drawn with Cameroon and drawn with Germany)
Saudi 0 (lost to both Germany and Saudi)

We feared that had we beaten Saudi and Germany and Cameroon drawn, we could still have been eliminated on 5 points.

Fortunately it didn't transpire that way but it has happened in Euro 2004. Remember the Italians talking about the Scandinavian conspiracy, whereby if Denmark and Sweden drew their final game, Italy would be eliminated irrespective of the fact they had obtained 5 points.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2004_Group_C


Incidentally in 1994, Mexico, ourselves, Italy and Norway all finished on 4 points. So it is possible to get 4 points and still finish bottom.

It is also possible to get two wins and be eliminated. If the three top teams all beat the dud team and then win one of their matches against the other big teams and lose their other match against the other big team, you will have a situation where 3 teams all end on 6 points. Not sure if its ever happened but certainly is a mathemathical possibility.

[Stuttgart88]

You can also go through with just 3 points I think.

[geysir]

You can, if the 3 points are from 3 draws ….I think.

[French Toasht]

Yeah and you can lose 2 and win one and go through aswell.

[Stuttgart88]

Yes, I was envisaging the following:

Team A wins all 3 games.

B beats C.
D beats B.
C beats D.

B, C & D all have 3 points - "mini-group" winner goes through.

[DeLorean]

Yeah, that nearly happened at the 2002 World Cup. Mexico were winning 1-0 against Italy in the final group match. Del Piero came on and scored a late equaliser and Italy ended up going through on 4pts. As it turned out though, even if they hadn't equalised, they would have qualified anyway on only 3pts.

World Cup 2002 - Group G (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_G)

[geysir]

Nearly? :)
At least I can offer a 3 draw example, Chile in 1998, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_B


(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_FIFA_World_Cup_Group_B)

[pineapple stu]

Cameroon in '82 as well (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_FIFA_World_Cup#Group_1). First team to be knocked out of the World Cup without losing a game (followed by England later that same tournament).

Edit - Italy going through obviously being the relevant example...

[geysir]

Looks like the 3 draw example is winning hands down.

Is that, 3 points from a win being good enough, just a mere theory?

[jbyrne]

talk of us regarding finals groups at this stage is ridiculous.
would estonia (ranked 58) putting us (ranked 29) out be any bigger of a shock than slovenia (49) putting russia (12) out of the last wc play-offs?

there is nearly always a bolter from the play offs and id say we are everyones favourite to lose out if it happens again this time.
anyone remember latvia euro 04 (v turkey), switzerland 06 (v turkey again)?

when have we ever been good as favourites?????

playing away first worries me. i can see a drab nil all in estonia followed by 1 all at home and estonia going through on away goals

[geysir]

We are already in the last 8 with 3 draws.
Bosnia are going to upset the play-off apple cart and gain revenge on Portugal.

[Bungle]

talk of us regarding finals groups at this stage is ridiculous.
would estonia (ranked 58) putting us (ranked 29) out be any bigger of a shock than slovenia (49) putting russia (12) out of the last wc play-offs?

there is nearly always a bolter from the play offs and id say we are everyones favourite to lose out if it happens again this time.
anyone remember latvia euro 04 (v turkey), switzerland 06 (v turkey again)?

when have we ever been good as favourites?????

playing away first worries me. i can see a drab nil all in estonia followed by 1 all at home and estonia going through on away goals

I think you're spot on by giving Estonia the respect that they deserve. In fairness, for the first few days after the draw, I was on cloud nine imagining myself drinking Polish beer in a Krawkow square after the Boys in Green beat the English 1-0 :) If the Irish team were as complacent as us fans, then we really could get turned over badly!

I don't think that we would have beaten Serbia and Slovenia away from home. Also, if we took 6 points off the North in a competitive group, I would be overjoyed. They are clearly a team greater than the sum of their parts and given that they might not be in this situation for another few years, their players will not make it easy for us. Better teams than Ireland have lost to teams far worse than Estonia.

However, I still stand by my belief when the draw was made that if this was a competitive group, I would only be satisfied with 6 points. This is a playoff that is ours only to lose.

[Bungle]

Does anyone know if the Estonians have any suspensions?