Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

[thischarmingman]

A win tonight and a draw mid-week and we have a foot in Poland/Ukraine- I think it's perfectly possible.

[eekers]

Russia are a class above everyone in the group. We're all playing for second.

[thischarmingman]

Someone say something reassuring please...even if...when we lose tonight we still have a good chance of 2nd right?

[Maroon 7]

Russians should get first now especially given all the home games they have to come.

Looks like a straight fight between ourselves and the Slovaks for 2nd.

[Sullivinho]

Russia are a class above everyone in the group. We're all playing for second.

Indeed. And we still have to see them boys in Moscow/Siberia/wherever.

[Littlest Hobo]

Following that crap, i hope trap makes changes. I would replace green/whelan with gibson/fahey and bring on foley for kilbane.

Saw the armenia/slovakia goals. slovak defence looked dodgy and with skrtel now suspended i think we have a good chance of claiming a win.
Heard somewhere Stoch maybe injured, which would be a big blow for them.

i'm confident trap will make necessary changes for a better performance and result/

[mypost]

Get a point on Tuesday and I'll be happy. It was going to be very hard before tonight, even more so on the back of tonight's result. Expect a very tough first 20 minutes out there.

[TrapAPony]

Get a point on Tuesday and I'll be happy. It was going to be very hard before tonight, even more so on the back of tonight's result. Expect a very tough first 20 minutes out there.

Slovakia will be missing Skrtel, Stoch and Vittek which will be a big blow for them. Players like Green, Kilbane & maybe even Whelan need to be ditched for us IMO.

[Colbert Report]

Green needs to go but Trap loves him for some reason and won't drop him.

We're incredibly lucky with the Armenia/Slovakia result today. Incredibly lucky.

[tricky_colour]

Could easily have been 5-1 at least


Yes they were lucky with a couple of their goals, but I doubt we would have got another 3, expect we would have laid off the attack once we had a 3 goal cushion.

[mypost]

Slovakia will be missing Skrtel, Stoch and Vittek which will be a big blow for them. Players like Green, Kilbane & maybe even Whelan need to be ditched for us IMO.

We have our own problems, and we're away on Tuesday as well. Hoping for a point, rather than expecting it.

[Noelys Guitar]

Don't rule out Macedonia causing an upset against the Russian's on Tuesday. They should have got at least a point in Slovakia (dubious late sending off changed game). And I would put them as only slightly weaker than Armenia. Russia are staying in Dublin over the weekend and are not flying onto Macedonia until Monday afternoon (which I believe is a mistake). No forgone conclusion this match.

[TrapAPony]

Don't rule out Macedonia causing an upset against the Russian's on Tuesday.

I wouldn't rule out Macedonia upsetting us either when the time comes.

[paul_oshea]

terrible result last night, dont let the 2 goals mask how poor we really were, for the last 15 mins we could have played some nice football on teh ground instead we hoofed it forward everytime to absolutely no avail. Green was terrible kilbane was not solely to blame for 2 goals but he was certainly at fault for 2 of them. I honestly think Trap was found out last night, his system against the fitter, sharper, more technically gifted russians was to sit back very deep let them attack us and not keep them further up the field or even harass them, it worked a treat for russia it was like a knife through butter we cut open so easily.

The whole performance was absoloutely terrible, but what was so disappointing was Trap teling given to hit it long everytime, and not to have told us from the off to harass and close them down, hence why they had so much ball,enough time on the ball to pick out the killer passes.

[elroy]

not keep them further up the field or even harass them,


Thats a key point and something I couldnt understand watching the game why we were standing off them and not harassing/putting them under pressure. They were unquestionably technically superior but standing off them was criminal. In contrast any time any of our midfielders got the ball they were surrounded by the Russians.

[Charlie Darwin]

his system against the fitter, sharper, more technically gifted russians was to sit back very deep let them attack us and not keep them further up the field or even harass them, it worked a treat for russia it was like a knife through butter we cut open so easily.
Er, that wasn't the system. At all. The system was to press them up the field and harass them. Green and Lawrence did this. Whelan and McGeady didn't.

[Noelys Guitar]

http://debilizator.tv/big.cgi?kanal=7 Armenian game on here And what a goal and start for Armenia.

This could be 5 or 6 nil going by the first 10 mins. Armenia look like scoring everytime they get forward

[pineapple stu]

3-0 now; half an hour gone. I wonder do Armenia have it in them to be serious play-off contenders?

I like the TV schedule -


00:25Наука 2.0. Моя планета.
01:30Вести-спорт.
01:45Моя планета.
02:50Рыбалка с Радзишевским.
03:05Неделя спорта.
03:55Top Gear.
05:00Все включено.
09:00Вести-спорт.
09:15Наука 2.0. Моя планета.
12:00Вести.ru.
12:10Вести-спорт.
12:20Top Gear.
13:25Бильярд. Кремлевский турнир.
15:00Неделя спорта.
15:55Хоккей. КХЛ. Сибирь (Новосибирск) - Ак Барс (Казань). Прямая трансляция.
18:15Вести.ru.
18:30Вести-спорт.
18:55Футбол. Чемпионат Европы-2012. Отборочный турнир. Армения - Андорра. Прямая трансляция.
20:55Вести.ru.
21:10Вести-спорт.
21:25Футбол. Македония - Россия. Перед матчем.
22:20Моя планета.

Good to know some things stay the same wherever you go.

[Spudulika]

4-0 Armenia. Oh for a 1-0 in Zilina!

[Charlie Darwin]

Looks like Armenia are going to be this year's Cyprus (or better!)

[rebelmusic]

I think the table flatters them to be honest. They've beaten andorra, macedonia and caught the Slovaks on a bad day from what we can tell. I don't think Ireland we're on top of their game at all when we played them and we beat them. On the other side of the coin, this campaign will probably be similar in the Armenian's mindset to us in 86 or 92 and it might be the jump off point for a solid investment in their international team. I'd wish them the best on that front because they're not a nasty footballing nation by any means.

[elroy]

Nonetheless Im glad we dont play them again until our last game, as the wind is well and truly in their sails at the moment.

[Hibs4Ever]

I think the table flatters them to be honest. They've beaten andorra, macedonia and caught the Slovaks on a bad day .


They drew with Macedonia

[Wolfie]

March 26th 2011

Ireland v Macedonia
Andorra v Slovakia
Armenia v Russia

Macedonia game, obviously a must win for us.

Interesting to see if Armenia can maintain their momentum and give Russia a tough game. They'd pass them on points if they won.

[Kingdom]

I think the table flatters them to be honest. They've beaten andorra, macedonia and caught the Slovaks on a bad day from what we can tell. I don't think Ireland we're on top of their game at all when we played them and we beat them. On the other side of the coin, this campaign will probably be similar in the Armenian's mindset to us in 86 or 92 and it might be the jump off point for a solid investment in their international team. I'd wish them the best on that front because they're not a nasty footballing nation by any means.

Yeah there's merit to this post in a sense, despite the error. I thought Armenia tried to play good football against us, and perhaps our experience got us through. As for their result against Slovakia, I wouldn't agree that they caught the Slovaks off guard at all. Slovakia I feel aren't as good a team as has been made out, and while results are the important part of football, sometimes they don't tell the full story. Slovakia were absolutely poxed lucky to beat Russia, and they needed an injurytime goal plus a ludicrous red card for Macedonia to get the three points, so I don't think it's stretching the imagination too much to say they've had a decent dollop of luck so far, and had we beaten them last night, which we would have fully deserved for the outright chances, then we could be looking at a vastly different table.

Lets just hope we get a bit of it (luck) when we need it.

Does anyone know if the play offs will be seeded?

[paul_oshea]

They drew with Macedonia

they were unlucky, that macedonia drew level so late on, a more experienced team would have put them away, they would now be joint top and us in 3rd...

they could be dark horses yet, if they even got a draw against russia, they would still be in contention big time.

[pineapple stu]

Does anyone know if the play offs will be seeded?
I think they announced at the start that they would be seeded.

[paul_oshea]

I think they announced at the start that they would be seeded.

yep they did.

[SwanVsDalton]

Take it's too early to start speculating on whether we'd be seeded or not...;)

Although actually, with our group being this tight already, our group could be in serious danger of having the worst second place team. Let the futile speculation begin!

[paul_oshea]

i thought it was the best second place team got through and then all the others in a play-off?

[Kingdom]

they were unlucky, that macedonia drew level so late on, a more experienced team would have put them away, they would now be joint top and us in 3rd...

they could be dark horses yet, if they even got a draw against russia, they would still be in contention big time.

Either way, it will probably help us in the long run if they are competitive for as long as possible. I would always, expect us to put away Armenia at Lansdowne. Armenia (I'd expect) will enjoy the joust with their former masters, it's a pity they've to go to Russia first, as I think they'd fancy themselves a bit at home, while they'll surely be eager going to Slovakia given the comprehensiveness of their victory on Friday. Who knows?

[SwanVsDalton]

Ah you're right Paul, my mistake: http://en.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/format/index.html

Guess that's one less thing to worry about.

[Duggie]

Ah you're right Paul, my mistake: http://en.uefa.com/uefaeuro2012/format/index.html

Guess that's one less thing to worry about.

euro 2016 heeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrr we come...........

[SwanVsDalton]

32 teams - we can hardly fail! We're practically there, along with NI, Wales, Estonia, Armenia and the Faroe Islands....

[Closed Account 2]

My prediction of results:

26-Mar-11 Ireland* 2 v 1 *Macedonia
26-Mar-11 Andorra* 0 v 3 *Slovakia
26-Mar-11 Armenia* 1 v 1 *Russia

04-Jun-11 Russia* 3 v 1 *Armenia
04-Jun-11 Slovakia* 4 v 0 *Andorra
04-Jun-11 Macedonia* 1 v 2 *Ireland

02-Sep-11 Ireland* 2 v 0 *Slovakia
02-Sep-11 Andorra* 1 v 4 *Armenia
02-Sep-11 Russia* 2 v 1 *Macedonia

06-Sep-11 Russia* 2 v 1 *Ireland
06-Sep-11 Slovakia* 1 v 1 *Armenia
06-Sep-11 Macedonia* 3 v 0 *Andorra

07-Oct-11 Armenia* 2 v 2 *Macedonia
07-Oct-11 Andorra* 0 v 2 *Ireland
07-Oct-11 Slovakia* 1 v 1 *Russia

11-Oct-11 Ireland* 2 v 1 *Armenia
11-Oct-11 Russia* 3 v 0 *Andorra
11-Oct-11 Macedonia* 1 v 1 *Slovakia

Would give the following table:

Projected Final
1 Russia 10 7 2 1 18 8 10 23
2 Ireland 10 7 1 2 18 10 8 22
3 Slovakia 10 4 4 2 14 9 5 16
4 Armenia 10 3 4 3 19 14 5 13
5 Macedonia 10 2 3 5 13 13 0 9
6 Andorra 10 0 0 10 2 30 -28 0


I think we should get 2nd, even if we draw at home to Slovakia or draw in Skopje...

I've got the predictor in XLS format - you put in the scores it generates the table... if anyone can upload it for me (send me a PM with your email) it can be posted heere

[harpstilidie]

32 teams - we can hardly fail! We're practically there, along with NI, Wales, Estonia, Armenia and the Faroe Islands....

I think its 24 teams not 32.

[pineapple stu]

Yeah, 24 - like the 1990 World Cup.

cdfh - you reckon we'll win all the rest of our games bar one? I don't think anything I've seen so far would fill me with much confidence that that will happen.

[SwanVsDalton]

I think its 24 teams not 32.

Goddamn I'm on a bad run today...scratch Wales out of that list so.

[Closed Account 2]

Yeah, 24 - like the 1990 World Cup.

cdfh - you reckon we'll win all the rest of our games bar one? I don't think anything I've seen so far would fill me with much confidence that that will happen.

I was doing a sort of best case scenario... I think in reality we might drop 2 points (in Skopje) or even 4 (draw at home to Slovakia) - (in addition to bring nothing back from Moscow) even if we drop 4 points we could still end up pipping the Slovaks

[Stuttgart88]

Stu, I don't think for a minute we'll get those results, but the thing is they're all perfectly feasible.

I posted a few years ago an analysis of what has historically been required to get first & second in these groups. Generally you need at least 2 points per game to secure second (though we got 17 I think in the WC 2010 campaign, and still finished comfortably ahead of Bulgaria). I'm not sure what the changing group sizes and other stuff has done to change this in the meantime but if 2ppg is still the benchmark we're a point off course already. However, so are the others and Russia aren't exactly tearing ahead.

I think I used a golf analogy in the dying days of Kerr's reign and I'll do it again. We've played 7 holes out of 18 and are 1 over par. Level par is the projected cut. We need at least one birdie and no more bogeys. We've had one double-bogey (Russia) and one birdie (Armenia). We missed a good birdie putt in Slovakia.

There may only be a couple of birdie opportunities left: can we make the putts? Or will we miss the green like we did against Russia? Maybe the cut will be one or two over.

I reckon the cut may be higher, we'll hit most of the greens in regulation and putt like we have the yips! Maybe it's time for a belly putter.

[Fixer82]

My prediction of results:

26-Mar-11 Ireland* 2 v 1 *Macedonia
26-Mar-11 Andorra* 0 v 3 *Slovakia
26-Mar-11 Armenia* 1 v 1 *Russia

04-Jun-11 Russia* 3 v 1 *Armenia
04-Jun-11 Slovakia* 4 v 0 *Andorra
04-Jun-11 Macedonia* 1 v 2 *Ireland

02-Sep-11 Ireland* 2 v 0 *Slovakia
02-Sep-11 Andorra* 1 v 4 *Armenia
02-Sep-11 Russia* 2 v 1 *Macedonia

06-Sep-11 Russia* 2 v 1 *Ireland
06-Sep-11 Slovakia* 1 v 1 *Armenia
06-Sep-11 Macedonia* 3 v 0 *Andorra

07-Oct-11 Armenia* 2 v 2 *Macedonia
07-Oct-11 Andorra* 0 v 2 *Ireland
07-Oct-11 Slovakia* 1 v 1 *Russia

11-Oct-11 Ireland* 2 v 1 *Armenia
11-Oct-11 Russia* 3 v 0 *Andorra
11-Oct-11 Macedonia* 1 v 1 *Slovakia

Would give the following table:

Projected Final
1 Russia 10 7 2 1 18 8 10 23
2 Ireland 10 7 1 2 18 10 8 22
3 Slovakia 10 4 4 2 14 9 5 16
4 Armenia 10 3 4 3 19 14 5 13
5 Macedonia 10 2 3 5 13 13 0 9
6 Andorra 10 0 0 10 2 30 -28 0


I think we should get 2nd, even if we draw at home to Slovakia or draw in Skopje...

I've got the predictor in XLS format - you put in the scores it generates the table... if anyone can upload it for me (send me a PM with your email) it can be posted heere

very optimistic.
I did my own calculations and I think we'll get 11 points from remaining games

[shakermaker1982]

I have us getting 11 points as well with this current team. If we got a couple of proper full backs and two decent midfielders (plus kept Duffer fit) then 15 is possible.

[paul_oshea]

Stu, I don't think for a minute we'll get those results, but the thing is they're all perfectly feasible.

I posted a few years ago an analysis of what has historically been required to get first & second in these groups. Generally you need at least 2 points per game to secure second (though we got 17 I think in the WC 2010 campaign, and still finished comfortably ahead of Bulgaria). I'm not sure what the changing group sizes and other stuff has done to change this in the meantime but if 2ppg is still the benchmark we're a point off course already. However, so are the others and Russia aren't exactly tearing ahead.

I think I used a golf analogy in the dying days of Kerr's reign and I'll do it again. We've played 7 holes out of 18 and are 1 over par. Level par is the projected cut. We need at least one birdie and no more bogeys. We've had one double-bogey (Russia) and one birdie (Armenia). We missed a good birdie putt in Slovakia.

There may only be a couple of birdie opportunities left: can we make the putts? Or will we miss the green like we did against Russia? Maybe the cut will be one or two over.

I reckon the cut may be higher, we'll hit most of the greens in regulation and putt like we have the yips! Maybe it's time for a belly putter.

so historically to win the group, if you win all games you top the group.

I think you mean eagles there instead of birdies, assuming your analogy is stapleford. if we missed a putt in slovakia it was definitely 2 points ;)

[seanfhear]

The present situation is a big question for Trapatoni.

Its for our next games that he will have to show his worth. It will be interesting to see if he still has the where with all to turn the situation around.

I certainly hope he can.

[legendz]

It's a good idea to expand the Euro's and give a few more side a crack at it. Looking at sides who missed out in the last play-offs for the Euro's, the competition should still be as strong as ever.

[Stuttgart88]

so historically to win the group, if you win all games you top the group.You obviously weren't asked any questions about logic in your job interview yesterday. Yes, winning all your games will win the group. However, you can win the group without winning all your games. Totally pointless post.

[geysir]

Aw shucks- thats really harsh on Paul - at least he appears to understand these golf analogies.

wtf is a belly putter? sounds like I could do with one of them while watching these games.

[paul_oshea]

http://golf.about.com/cs/golfterms/g/bldef_bellyputt.htm

they are the extra long putters geysir. I believe the idea behind them is a firmer, more accurate grip, as you hold it in two place as opposed to the standard golf grip. They were a fashionable thing in the early to mind 90's,

i think he knows what i was getting at.

[geysir]

That could be a dangerous thing to have in my grip when watching the next game.
I'll stick to the worry beads.

[tetsujin1979]

That could be a dangerous thing to have in my grip when watching the next game. That's what she said!