Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

[Paddy Garcia]

6 or 7 out of 10 for a player who was not really good, who rarely imposed himself and one of the weakest links in the team??
I'd say you were a tad generous with your rating.

Generous to a fault.

I take the Kennedy view of a 6 or 7 out of 10.

[SwanVsDalton]

Thing is, I think thats too simplistic a view of things. I'm not saying either player would have blossomed or flourished under traps guidance, but you can't say they wouldn't have either. Looking at the current team, playing first team for your club does not mean you won't perform for Ireland. Ill bring you back to your argument witih IFK101 about Sledger.

That's too speculative for me. You're right, club form isn't the ultimate guide, but I think cases like Sledge are the exception and not the rule. There will always be a case to be made on drafting them in based on their natural ability but their form has been iffy for so long I think it damages their claim.

I'd be happy to see either of them back (well maybe not happy re Ireland) but they both have to make any kind of case for inclusion first...

[Paddy the Dog]

I heard an interesting comment on the radio the other night from a journalist who reports on Eastern European football. I didn't catch his name and I caught only the end of the interview but his view on Armenia's victory against Slovakia was that Armenia's young team are quick up front and were able to get behind the Slovak defence.

The reason I thought it was an interesting comment is that after only 6 or 7 minutes of our game against Slovakia it was apparent to me that we were in for a long night given Slovakia had set themselves up beautifully with the two holding midfielders sitting just in front of their back four thereby affording our forwards no space at all. I didn't see the Slovakia v Armenia game but I presume the Slovaks didn't play the same formation and instead pushed the back four farther up the pitch thereby leaving space behind.

As the words were coming out of the journalist's mouth about Armenia getting behind the Slovak defence I had a little chuckle inside, anticipating the journalist's next statement as to the likelihood of Trap setting us up with the back four closer to the half-way line. He didn't disappoint!

I am concerned that the Armenians are in-form and appear to have the spirit and togetherness to match our own, and if I was Armenian I would burst at the excitement of being on the cusp of emerging from relative international soccer obscurity to possible tournament qualification. Our game with them is now immense. I'm just glad it isn't a dead rubber, which was always a possibility when the draw was made. Remember the last game of the previous tournament, Montenegro?

And do you remember years ago when yer mammy said a snooker cue was too big a present for yer birthday, it had to be a joint birthday and Christmas present?

Well, I couldn't wish for a better joint birthday, Christmas, Easter and Ramadan present than Ireland entering the Armenia game with a great chance of emerging from the group, could you?

[Kingdom]

I am concerned that the Armenians are in-form and appear to have the spirit and togetherness to match our own, and if I was Armenian I would burst at the excitement of being on the cusp of emerging from relative international soccer obscurity to possible tournament qualification. Our game with them is now immense. I'm just glad it isn't a dead rubber, which was always a possibility when the draw was made. Remember the last game of the previous tournament, Montenegro?

And do you remember years ago when yer mammy said a snooker cue was too big a present for yer birthday, it had to be a joint birthday and Christmas present?

Well, I couldn't wish for a better joint birthday, Christmas, Easter and Ramadan present than Ireland entering the Armenia game with a great chance of emerging from the group, could you?

One thing I'm not sure has been mentioned here is the pressure that is now on the Armenians. It is colossal. Remember that up to Tuesday, the notion that they would be qualifying was fanciful in the extreme - not impossible, but highly improbable. Now though, on the back of a fantastic victory, and what on paper seems to be a straightforward match against Macedonia, they'll head to Dublin with qualification a real possibility. For their first ever finals. That is incredible pressure to be under. It remains to be seen whether they will not buckle under it. Don't be surprised if Macedonia were to etch out a result like they did in matchday 2.

I agree about the Armenia game not being a dead rubber. The analogy of the Montenegrin game was the exact one I made with my long term Ireland partner on Tuesday. We didn't perform that day as much down to the anti-climax of the Italy game as the non-importance of our own game. That said, if we have to beat Armenia to win the group, irrespective of other results, I'm 100% confident we'll do it, regardless also whether Armenia need a result or not.

[Noelys Guitar]

http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/james-lawton-ireland-cannot-afford-to-jettison-old-trap-2871840.html

Hard to argue with some of the points made by lawton, but he takes the obvious easy approach - SI and Andy reid.

But it did get me thinking, how would he have handled Roy Keane, a man he could obviously not have treated like Andy Reid?

Keane would have loved playing in this team under Trap. The vintage Keane of of late 90's into 2000 and beyond would have loved a Trap as manager. No doubt about it. If we had the vintage Roy Keane now we would be major contenders to win the Euros never mind qualify. And whoever played alongside Keane whether Andrews or Whelan would look almost world class. We need to unearth a top class midfield player or better again one of the younger players such as McCarthy improve to such a standard that Trap will play them.

[geysir]

Keane would have been bowing at Trap's lotus feet at the beginning of every squad meet up. Trap would have been claiming that 'the players are like my children but Keane is my Spartacus'.
And let's not forget that Trap had two of the best creative attacking midfielders of their day in his team, Brady succeeded by Platini.

[seanfhear]

Hypothetical I know but it would be interesting to see where Myler would have fitted in the scheme of things if he did not have that serious injury.

That Wilson can play as a defensive midfielder was a good mention by someone but I suppose he would have to be playing this role for Stoke for Trap to judge him in this role.

If lets say we did play 3 midfielders (Is that Traps fire and brimstone I hear stirring) which winger would have to make way !

[BonnieShels]

Well I wouldn't be foregoing a winger. I would be dropping Robbie back into a middle 5.

[seanfhear]

Well I wouldn't be foregoing a winger. I would be dropping Robbie back into a middle 5.

I suppose Duffer could supply some back-up goal threat (sort of replacing what we would be losing by Robbie playing deeper) but unfortunately Aiden does not carry a lot of goal threat or any other of the wingers for that matter (maybe Treacy or is that just me !)
It would'nt be making us that more defensive than we already are would it ?

[BonnieShels]

Our biggest problem going forward is the lack of a link between the wingers and the front 2. There's always a huge hole between CM and CF that it would be better if we had someone in there holding the ball up. Robbie can do that.

[Murfinator]

Our biggest problem going forward is the lack of a link between the wingers and the front 2. There's always a huge hole between CM and CF that it would be better if we had someone in there holding the ball up. Robbie can do that.

Yep, the wingers are typically having to rain in crosses which is a useless strategy without a targetman. We need them cutting inside and to reliably do that they need support in the centre to link with. As is all fullbacks when being faced with Duff or McGeady will be under instruction to lean inside and force them wide. They can't do any harm out there.

Trap seems aware of this and his solution in the last 2 games was having JOS and Ward push up to support their wingers but with such poor ball retention and the lack of pace in our centre backs we're very vulnerable to the counter attack doing this.

[Wolfie]

Just had a quick look at Andorra's home results in this group:

Andorra 0 - Russia 2
Andorra 0 - Macedonia 2
Andorra 0 - Slovakia 1
Andorra 0 - Armenia 3

Possibly Armenia result aside, there is nothing remotely comprehensive about any of the other results.

We've a track record of struggling in these sort of games and I just hope this game is approached without a semblance of complacency.

Obvious, but worth stating - we're not exactly well set up to demolish so called "weaker" teams with our creative brilliance.

I understand that many would argue that if you can't beat Andorra, you don't deserve to qualify. I just hope they are paid the respect that their home results in this group deserve.

[Sullivinho]

Early goal please. Can you imagine heading past the 70th minute with the score still at 0-0 and their bus pefecting it's parking manouveres in front of the goal? Ugh.

[CraftyToePoke]

An early goal, with a second before half time and a nice comfortable assured win.

[zero]

i am hopefully (bordering on confident) that duff and mcgeady will have enough about them to flummox the inferior fullbacks and create opportunities for whichever 2 lads we have up front.

a poor performance though regardless of the result will result in the usual media backlash, but it seems they're chomping at the bit to deliver just that in any case.

[Stuttgart88]

Just had a quick look at Andorra's home results in this group:

Andorra 0 - Russia 2
Andorra 0 - Macedonia 2
Andorra 0 - Slovakia 1
Andorra 0 - Armenia 3

Possibly Armenia result aside, there is nothing remotely comprehensive about any of the other results.

We've a track record of struggling in these sort of games and I just hope this game is approached without a semblance of complacency.

Obvious, but worth stating - we're not exactly well set up to demolish so called "weaker" teams with our creative brilliance.

I understand that many would argue that if you can't beat Andorra, you don't deserve to qualify. I just hope they are paid the respect that their home results in this group deserve.Well said. To qualify for E88 we only beat Luxembourg 2-1 at home. Nobody cared a year later.

To qualify for Euro 2008 Russia needed a win in Andorra. They were managed by Guus Hiddink. They won 1-0.

[ArdeeBhoy]

A win. By any means.

[Stuttgart88]

A pal has just asked me for clarification on something.

If we get second and a play-off, we would definitely be a bottom seed, yes?

If so, are we automatically at home in the first leg?

My instinct is "yes" in each case.

[geysir]

A pal has just asked me for clarification on something.

If we get second and a play-off, we would definitely be a bottom seed, yes?

If so, are we automatically at home in the first leg?

My instinct is "yes" in each case.

That's the gut size of it.

I see the odds on us qualifying are closing in on the odds for not qualifying.
1/1 qualify 8/11 not qualify.
'Evens' are poor odds at this stage.

[AlaskaFox]

Call up Gary Doherty!

[Kingdom]

A pal has just asked me for clarification on something.

If we get second and a play-off, we would definitely be a bottom seed, yes?

If so, are we automatically at home in the first leg?

My instinct is "yes" in each case.

I posted this about 2 weeks ago. I can't see how we'll finish in the top half of the seeds. I think UEFA said something different to who plays at home first though...

http://foot.ie/threads/63100-World-Ranking?p=1530828&viewfull=1#post1530828



Just had a look there at the link...

6 Croatia* 33478
8 Portugal** 31910
9 Greece* 31825
10 Sweden 31126
12 Denmark** 30313
13 Serbia 29005
14 Czech Republic 28148
17 Turkey 27836
18 Switzerland 27595
19 Ireland 27268
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 27118



...it doesn't require a huge leap of faith to say that these are the teams left to battle it out for the 2nd places.
Turkey only have to equal Belgiums result away to the Germans, at home and they're in. I think they'll do that.
Serbia, somehow thanks to the North going mad, should get group c. Unless Estonia win in Windsor (not impossible) and Serbia don't get a win from Italy or Slovenia (Estonia have the better on the head to head record).
Bosnia are sorted for D, they only need to beat Luxembourg.
Sweden should be ok for E, they need to beat Finland, then the Holland match becomes irrelevant as they've beaten Hungary on head to head.
Group G In my mind, will see the Swiss will roll the Montenegrins.
Which leaves the two groups that should decide who gets automatic qualifier. F & H.
F is a tight group. A toss-up between Greece and Croatia. They have to beat Croatia next game, or Croatia will top the group by beating Latvia in Split on the last day. I can see a draw game in Greece, and Greece finishing with a win against Georgia. This would see them having 16 points on the table.
Group H is the Portugal/Denmark/Norway group. I'd feel Denmark should have enough over Cyprus, but I can't see Portugal not getting what they need in Copenhagen. The head to heads mean that Norway need to hope Denmark don't beat either Cyprus or Portugal.

As a result of that I can see the second placed teams being:

Turkey
Ireland
Serbia
Bosnia
Sweden
Croatia (auto)
Switzerland
Denmark
Czech rep

Which, as DI's link shows, seedings-wise at present is:

10 Sweden 31126
12 Denmark 30313
13 Serbia 29005
14 Czech Republic 28148
17 Turkey 27836
18 Switzerland 27595
19 Ireland 27268
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 27118

In predicting how the groups or results will turn out, you can try and see if the seedings will be affected. I find it hard to believe Switzerland will drop below us as they're going to have to win their next two games to get 2nd place anyway.

Turkey could very well drop points, and I've no doubt the Czech's will drip points also, perhaps against Lithuania also. I'm not really sure the seedings are going to make much of a difference this time round. I wouldn't be afraid of any team, but I'd be wary of Serbia, only because we seem to struggle against the strong Balkan teams in the recent past.
I'm well aware this could be all totally irrelevant if Slovakia do us a favour and we capitalise on the favour.

[Kingdom]

Woops... got this from the UEFA site...


The eight remaining runners-up contest play-off matches. The four ties are
determined by means of a draw. The four runners-up with the best position in the
UEFA national team coefficient ranking system (see Annex I, paragraph 1.2.2) are
seeded for the draw. If any of the teams in question have the same coefficient, the
criteria listed in paragraph 7.02 apply. The play-offs are played according to the
knockout system, with each team playing each opponent twice, in home and away
matches. The seeded teams play the return match at home. The teams which
score the greater aggregate of goals in the two matches qualify for the final
tournament. Otherwise, the provisions of paragraph 7.08 apply.

[geysir]

Like I said, Stutts' instinct was sound.

[BonnieShels]

So, it would be advantageous NOT to be seeded. Playing away from home is the way to be surely what with the bizarre existence of away goals in ET!

That's a assuming of course we believe that there are teams substantially better than us that we should prefer to get and think we should win.

[theworm2345]

A pal has just asked me for clarification on something.

If we get second and a play-off, we would definitely be a bottom seed, yes?

If so, are we automatically at home in the first leg?

My instinct is "yes" in each case.
As I'm sure we are all aware, UEFA will make the rules up to, in whatever ways possible, allow the more "attractive" team an easier route to the finals. So it will depend on which teams would be second.

[French Toasht]

So, it would be advantageous NOT to be seeded. Playing away from home is the way to be surely what with the bizarre existence of away goals in ET!


Really is that the case? So supposing we had equalised in extra time after the Gallas goal in Paris, we would have gone through automatically without the requirement for penalties? Seems unduly harsh.

[Stuttgart88]

Thanks Kingdom. I knew there was a post about it. I searched but couldn't find it.

[BonnieShels]

Seems to be the way alright. That's how it is in the CL. It's disgraceful in my view.

[geysir]

Conventional wisdom says playing away first is an advantage. I don't know how they got to that, so that now the seeded team usually plays away first..

I wonder what the stats are, where there are 2 legged ties between teams in an unseeded knockout competition,
does the team that plays at home for the return leg have an advantage?

[BonnieShels]

I can't see nowadays how it does.

In the old days with travel etc you would see that it was which is a reason we have the AG rule.

The only rule that holds true in soccer is that the best team always wins, most of the time.

;)

[ArdeeBhoy]

It used to be quite pronounced, but less now, I believe.

Think the English Indo' had some stats on it if anyone's bothered to Google.

[pineapple stu]

So, it would be advantageous NOT to be seeded. Playing away from home is the way to be surely what with the bizarre existence of away goals in ET!
I suppose the flip side is the team at home in the second leg have 120 minutes in their own home ground, so away goals after extra time may balance that out a bit. The home team would usually be in the ascendancy too (if we assume most cases of extra time arise after two home wins)

[jbyrne]

I suppose the flip side is the team at home in the second leg have 120 minutes in their own home ground, so away goals after extra time may balance that out a bit. The home team would usually be in the ascendancy too (if we assume most cases of extra time arise after two home wins)

didnt trap say that the france play-off should have gone straight to pens after 90 mins to ensure that neither team had an advantage of playing more mins at home?

my opinion is that having the first leg at home and keeping the opposition scoreless is much more desireable than playing away first under any circumstances

[BonnieShels]

Completely agree with your second paragraph jb.

[p2011]

15 or 20 years ago, when I first really started following football, I had the impression that playing the 2nd leg at home was preferred - i.e. playing the decisive leg at home in front of your own fans.
However, in recent years defensive tactics have turned this on its head. The way most teams are set up (and this very much includes Trap's Ireland), they prefer to keep things tight and hopefully not concede at home in the 1st leg and then go away for the 2nd leg and play on the counterattack and nick the all-important away goal. Apart from Anelka's deflected shot, this pretty much would have worked for us against France.

In short, I really think managers' and teams' preferences have shifted 180° over the years on this one.

Incidentally, I think the advantage of benefitting from away goals in extra time is supposed to compensate for the unfairness of having to play an extra 30 minutes (120 versus 90) in front of away fans.

[p2011]

Our biggest problem going forward is the lack of a link between the wingers and the front 2. There's always a huge hole between CM and CF that it would be better if we had someone in there holding the ball up. Robbie can do that.

Watching the Russia game again, we also had a huge gap between our (very flat) midfield four and the back four. Andrews and Whelan are sold to us as holding midfielders, but Arshavin & co. were constantly exploiting space behind KA and GW. This is probably the reason Ward kept stepping out to fill the gap and getting caught out of position, with McGeady covering for him heroically on a few occasions.

Watching this made me wonder if Trap really is such a great tactician... our shape was a mess against Russia, just like first time around.

Against Russia we were crying out for a 4-5-1. Perhaps even McGeady could drift in front of the Andrews and Whelan, closing the gaps between the lines and giving the opposition something to think about. Playing as we did with two isolated strikers getting no service just wastes a man and you could see Russia knew we posed almost zero goal threat. Maybe McCarthy or Keane or even Duff could do this job. We have to get away from the British Isles notion that anything less than 2 strikers is somehow not manly or not attacking enough.

If we qualify for Euro 2012 and stick with a rigid 4-4-2 with massive gaps like that against Spain or Germany, they will simply rip us a second posterior opening. With a bit more tactical cleverness we could at least frustrate such teams.

[geysir]

The promotion play off semi's in England have no away goal advantage. However, afair, the top finishing team in the league table has the home tie in the 2nd leg.

It worked out okay for France, Belgium and Turkey against us. Afair, only Slovakia or Slovenia bucked the trend in these play offs.

[zero]

is it possible at all to catch turkey and czech republic on the co-efficient ranking if we win our last two games and they don't?

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

[Kingdom]

Switzerland have to win their two games to qualify, so they'll stay ahead of us if they make the play-offs. The Czech's would appear to be vunerable. Turkey, similarily to Switzerland, aren't sure of the play-offs and need positive results just to make it that far, and with one game being against Azerbaijan in Istanbul, they're bound to stay ahead of us.

The best bet is for Estonia to beat the North and Serbia bottle it against Italy and away to Slovenia.
We need a minor miracle.

[zero]

hmm, fair enough. i was considering the case where they win one and lose the other.

what it boils down to is that i don't know how many points are awarded for each win. i know that it works on a weighted average, but there must be a rough number for what a win means - around 250 pts?

more? fewer?

some roughish calculations seem to indicate that 2 wins for us will get us around 1100 extra pts. this means we'd probably overtake the turks if they win one and lose one, but not catch the czechs. so it makes no real odds...

[Kingdom]

hmm, fair enough. i was considering the case where they win one and lose the other.

what it boils down to is that i don't know how many points are awarded for each win. i know that it works on a weighted average, but there must be a rough number for what a win means - around 250 pts?

more? fewer?

I'm like yourself, hazarding a guess. I think the results you're losing comes into the equation as well. Somewhere it was mentioned that 4 years ago are the results you lose, so in our case that would be the draw against Germany and the draw against Cyprus.

[geysir]

It must be difficult for a Kerryman to come to terms with the mediocrity of supporting a team that is just inching its way out out of the 3rd seeds.

If Kerry were running the FAI, losing the European final would be a devastating defeat and the start of a 6 month inquiry into what went wrong.

[Kingdom]

It must be difficult for a Kerryman to come to terms with the mediocrity of supporting a team that is just inching its way out out of the 3rd seeds.

If Kerry were running the FAI, losing the European final would be a devastating defeat and the start of a 6 month inquiry into what went wrong.

Not at all. In Gaa, we've got as good a selection of footballers as there is in the country (even if the savages in the North of the county (around Lixnaw and Listowel) are falling behind with producing with sort of halfbred nutjobs required to compete) so success is expected, and nearly realised enough of the time.

Unfortunately in football, we've a small population in our region (UEFA), a poorly supported National League (are we the only country in Europe not to feature a home based player in our squad?), and a playing population that generally gets coached from a young age by other associations - we've no right to success, so the limited success of the Ireland team, in context, is enough.

[BonnieShels]

Us and Liechtenstein!

And they don't have a league!

[theworm2345]

Us and Liechtenstein!

And they don't have a league!
Bosnia's only home based player in their current squad is their third string keeper, not sure that really counts. Of course Wales have some players from Cardiff and Swansea but no players from their league.

[BonnieShels]

Bosnia's only home based player in their current squad is their third string keeper, not sure that really counts. Of course Wales have some players from Cardiff and Swansea but no players from their league.

Not gonna lie to you but I assumed, and BH is one country I forgot about league weakness v player ability.

Still it's pretty poor. to be one-in-four and you could make a case of one-in-three.

[Crosby87]

I love these discussions in the slow days that lead up to the start of a big 2 matches :D.
It's always the same.
I could throw out any topic in the world right now, and there would be serious, and at times fierce debate.
So I will: Anne Hathaway. Attractive As Hell or Looks Like A Horse? Your call. (Ladies do not hesitate to chime in)

[AlaskaFox]

Looks like a horse.

[BonnieShels]

Neither. Suffice to say, I'd hit it.

But how would she fit into the "system" and does she have the "persin-al-ee-tay" and the, how you say, mentalità, eh eh, "men-tahl-ee-tay"?

[Kingdom]

Horse - but have seen her in the catwoman costume, and if it was a full mask, well that would change things to a degree.