Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

[Stuttgart88]

Does anyone remember the two draws at home to Belgium and Scotland in Jacks first campaign?Vividly. Which proves that the results are more important than the performances.

I watch as much international football as I can. Rarely to the seeded teams do more than is needed in the banana-skin games. Usually the wins are narrow and influenced by surviving a few scares and maybe getting some breaks. We got some breaks early in the game on Saturday. That's not saying we depended on them to win the game. If it had been 0-0 at 70 minutes we'd have been far more urgent with the ball I'm sure.

[SwanVsDalton]

Jonathan Wilson outlines the pressure on Russia for The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/mar/29/andrey-arshavin-russia-euro-2012)

[paul_oshea]

You really would expect Russia to pick up 9 points in these home games:
Armenia, Macedonia and Andorra

Hopefully we can match them, even if one of ours is away.

[Noelys Guitar]

Russia drawing 1-1 at the moment away to Qatar. Pavlyuchenko scored the equaliser. No idea why he didn't play on Saturday. I don't think Dick Advocat rates him as he rarely starts him.
Link here http://www.stopstream.tv/ch6.html

Finished 1-1. Another mediocre performance from Russia. They really do look poor at the back.

[Stuttgart88]

I think Dick Advocaat might be our MVP at the end of this campaign.

[SwanVsDalton]

They're not functioning at the moment - even against us, it's telling they nearly folded completely late on. What's odds Advocaat is gone by the time we roll round to Moscow?

[paul_oshea]

hopefully the night before.

what's this stupid American mvp term being used all about

[ped_ped]

hopefully the night before.

what's this stupid American mvp term being used all about

Dick Advocaat our MVP (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montel_Vontavious_Porter)? I'm not seeing the similarity, I'll be honest.

[Noelys Guitar]

Slovakia beaten 1-2 at home by Denmark. Started with their strongest team as well.

[BonnieShels]

Jonathan Wilson outlines the pressure on Russia for The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2011/mar/29/andrey-arshavin-russia-euro-2012)

There was all this talk about the Russians being under supreme pressure and going backwards when they played in Lansdowne. I don't buy it that much. We have no idea what will happen between now and then. Let's just get to Moscow and worry about it then. We have more pressing issues like beating Macedonia and Slovakia. If we don't win them the Russia game will be academic.

[SwanVsDalton]

There was all this talk about the Russians being under supreme pressure and going backwards when they played in Lansdowne. I don't buy it that much. We have no idea what will happen between now and then. Let's just get to Moscow and worry about it then. We have more pressing issues like beating Macedonia and Slovakia. If we don't win them the Russia game will be academic.

Absolutely but we should take heart in whatever problems are rivals are facing. Plus Russia are struggling for results and need to win games as much as us.

[BonnieShels]

Absolutely but we should take heart in whatever problems are rivals are facing. Plus Russia are struggling for results and need to win games as much as us.


You're right we should take heart from others' problems. I think that Slovakia's woes are of more interest right now to me.
Between now and Moscow we need to ensure we cement our superiority in the Nation's Cup. In those games and the games in America we need to develop a plan B (which will hopefully morph into plan A); something like tonight with a back 4 that works. If we had played like we did tonight in attack I might add, we wouldn't have been so easily routed in Dublin. This is what we should be trying to guard against.

Let's not bank on other's woes, but let's capitalise on them by going about our plan effectively and taking it one game at a time.

[SwanVsDalton]

You're right we should take heart from others' problems. I think that Slovakia's woes are of more interest right now to me.
Between now and Moscow we need to ensure we cement our superiority in the Nation's Cup. In those games and the games in America we need to develop a plan B (which will hopefully morph into plan A); something like tonight with a back 4 that works. If we had played like we did tonight in attack I might add, we wouldn't have been so easily routed in Dublin. This is what we should be trying to guard against.

Let's not bank on other's woes, but let's capitalise on them by going about our plan effectively and taking it one game at a time.

Big time - let's take advantage and not allow for luck to play any part in this process again. With some forward planning, some extra edge and passion, we can win this group.

I think it's interesting - and timely - we're arranging so many games. Trap may be a cautious selector but at least he's giving the players the opportunities. And, as has been said, it's great we have genuine options for the first time in ages. The Nations Cup games are virtually an audition for who starts in Skopje - Given or Westwood; Fahey, Gibson, Whelan, McCarthy, Green or Andrews; Kilbane or Clark; Kelly or Foley; Keane or Long (if Doyle's fit). Opportunities for the likes of O'Dea, Best, Walters et al to put their hands up too. Really heartening.

[Stuttgart88]

Let's not bank on other's woes, but let's capitalise on them by going about our plan effectively and taking it one game at a time.I can almost hear Barack Obama or John F. Kennedy addressing the masses...

[BonnieShels]

I can almost hear Barack Obama or John F. Kennedy addressing the masses...

I'm about as rousing as Gloria Hunniford eating cake in Grimsby.
Despite their European provenance I reckon I could take them tactically.
I'm feeling oratorical tonight.

Swanny, its funny you should mention that about Trap. If you go back to the last campaign we seemed to kick on around the summertime and look where that got us. Maybe the auld bastid knows what he's doing after all.

[paul_oshea]

Big time - let's take advantage and not allow for luck to play any part in this process again. With some forward planning, some extra edge and passion, we can win this group.

I think it's interesting - and timely - we're arranging so many games. Trap may be a cautious selector but at least he's giving the players the opportunities. And, as has been said, it's great we have genuine options for the first time in ages. The Nations Cup games are virtually an audition for who starts in Skopje - Given or Westwood; Fahey, Gibson, Whelan, McCarthy, Green or Andrews; Kilbane or Clark; Kelly or Foley; Keane or Long (if Doyle's fit). Opportunities for the likes of O'Dea, Best, Walters et al to put their hands up too. Really heartening.

I don't think he would change it for that game so quickly after playing those friendlies(more like after the whole summer he has with them).

[geysir]

I don't subscribe to the view that we have benefited from what you would call our due breaks, in this campaign. Playing an away game on neutral ground, saving a last minute penalty or getting a last gasp winner, is a break.
IMO, getting a soft goal early on, losing Doyle and working hard for 60 minutes does not qualify as a break.

I don't know how these breaks are calculated in the grand scheme of things. But after reading an interview with Trap I calculate that we have bolstered our case for a huge qualification size break, just by association with Trap.

The reference is to that dodgy World Cup ref
After what was effectively an unsuccessful time as Italian national team manager, which he puts down to a variety of factors including questionable decisions by a referee who was arrested last year for drug smuggling, Trapattoni admitted to having a certain sense of unfinished business in the international game.
“I think I achieved good results with a strong team but sure, I am also in credit with Uefa and Fifa a little after some of the things that happened. I’m due something back in international football.”

[Noelys Guitar]

Trapatonni could teach Ferguson and Mourinho a few tricks in the "messing around with your head" stakes. Big away game coming up and the last thing we want in Macedonia is a "homer". And he will amplify his concerns come Moscow.

[SwanVsDalton]

I don't think he would change it for that game so quickly after playing those friendlies(more like after the whole summer he has with them).

Don't see why not? This is the first time in a while (possibly ever under Trap) there's been genuine debate over 4-6 team places. With two games just beforehand, he can look at two players, such as Kelly/Foley and Gibson/Fahey, and see who's most up to the job. Great chance to see exactly how these players are responding after a long season or who can do the job required in Skopje.

[SwanVsDalton]

Trapatonni could teach Ferguson and Mourinho a few tricks in the "messing around with your head" stakes. Big away game coming up and the last thing we want in Macedonia is a "homer". And he will amplify his concerns come Moscow.

Agreed. Hope he does too. Don't care how it comes our way, don't even care if we or Trap deserve it or not - I'll take a lucky, flukey, referee assisted win in Moscow every day.

[paul_oshea]

Don't see why not? This is the first time in a while (possibly ever under Trap) there's been genuine debate over 4-6 team places. With two games just beforehand, he can look at two players, such as Kelly/Foley and Gibson/Fahey, and see who's most up to the job. Great chance to see exactly how these players are responding after a long season or who can do the job required in Skopje.

Foley has already played, kelly has been around long enough and has played often enough, with Dunne gone we know that at least one of those is going to start anyway... I don't think we are talking about him as have gibson and fahey, i agree there is a chance fahey could play in midfield, im talking the likes of newer players(already selected for the squad) to come in.

[Kingdom]

I'd say if JOSH and St Ledger are fit for the Nations Cup, they will start at centre back against Macedonia. I'd say he's going to try and get the back 4 as close to selection as early as possible in the 3 game period around Macedonia. The nightmare scenario is that the centre back partnership of the other night takes the field again.
For me anyway ideally it would be OShea and Ledger, or OShea and O'Dea, followed by Ledger and O'Dea.

[geysir]

Paul Green out for the rest of the season.

I don't know who to nominate as the replacement fall guy.

[Kingdom]

never wish injury on a player, but it's one less limited player to compete for a spot in the middle. (also gives the other options a run out in the friendlies too)

[geysir]

Yeah sure Kingdom, when you heard the news you probably hit your head off the ceiling and then thought it better to express a morsel of compassion (crocodile tears) in the first 6 words.

[BonnieShels]

never wish injury on a player, but it's one less limited player to compete for a spot in the middle. (also gives the other options a run out in the friendlies too)

Biggest but this side of JLO.

Funny though he gets injured now after not performing so badly in the last game.

[Kingdom]

Yeah sure Kingdom, when you heard the news you probably hit your head off the ceiling and then thought it better to express a morsel of compassion (crocodile tears) in the first 6 words.

I immediately smiled, then I heard that David Moran is out for the year. What you gain on the swings....

Sorry that's an off-topic gaa reference. I know you Monaghan boys aren't too hot at Gaa.

[geysir]

You know when a Kerryman's moral tank is empty when they try and reclaim the high ground with sly references to GAA superiority.
Anyway, the force is with Cork these days;)

[Kingdom]

Form, class, temporary, permanent etc etc. Anyway, I'd be quite happy if Mr Green made a full recovery for the start of the new season.

[French Toasht]

Well lads this is probably the wrong thread for this but the World Cup 2014 qualification draw takes place on July 30th 2011. The seeding will be decided purely on the latest FIFA rankings immediately before the draw. There will be 9 groups. 9 winners qualify automatically. 8 best runners up go into play offs. As it currently stands Ireland are ranked 22nd in Europe and will be a third seed. If we can get into the the top 18 by the time of the draw, we will be second seeds.

As it stands the seedings would be as such:
Pot 1:
Spain
Holland
Germany
England
Portugal
Italy
Croatia
Norway
Greece

Pot 2:
Serbia
Slovenia
Russia
France
Montenegro
Switzerland
Slovakia
Denmark
Sweden

Pot 3:
Turkey
Czech Republic
Israel
IRELAND
Ukraine
Belgium
Romania
Bosnia *** (May be disqualified)
Bulgaria

Pot 4:
Lithuania
Albania
Hungary
Belerus
Georgia
Armenia
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Poland

Pot 5:
Austria
Estonia
Latvia
Finland
Macedonia
Moldova
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Wales

Pot 6:
Iceland
Luxembourg
Faroe Islands
Kazakhstan
Liechtenstein
Malta
Andorra
San Marino

Heres hoping we can sneak our way into the second seeds but if it were to stay as it is now, probably the worst case scenario would be to get would be Spain from the first pot and a rejuvinated France under Blanc from the second. A combination of Norway and Slovenia would be just lovely.

[paul_oshea]

Is the carling nations cup a UEFA/FIFA recognised compeition i.e. if we beat macedonia/scotland and NI would it make any difference to getting into top 18? How would we have looked had we beaten Uruguay?

[French Toasht]

Yes friendlies count so it makes the NI, Scotland, Macedonia and potential friendly in New York against Italy absolutely crucial. Had we beaten Uruguay we probably would have climbed substantially considering they are 7th in the world. I know not many people pay attention to FIFA rankings but they are vitally important when it comes to seedings for qualification.

[paul_oshea]

They are now, thats not how it used to be. I think it should go on qualification on previous tournaments like it used to. That said we would still probably be 3rd seeds this time around, but assuming we finish 2nd again this year then we would have been 2nd for 2016.

I'm pretty sure any friendly in the US will not be FIFA recognised.

[geysir]

The seeding for the 2010 WC qualification draw was based on the FIFA rankings for the first time, afaiaa.
All official international friendlies are counted in the FIFA rankings.
The Carling/Celtic cup games are not FIFA/UEFA competitions but have the same status in regards to points in the FIFA rankings, as our friendlies in the USA, no more - no less.

[BonnieShels]

Correct me if I'm wrong but were the wc2010 qualifiers drawn in January 2008?
If that's the case why are these qualifiers for 2014 being drawn so early?

[geysir]

Has there been some change? Usually the draw for the WC qualifiers happens a few months after the Euro qualifiers are finished and vice versa.

[BonnieShels]

Echo... yeah what he said... maybe its to ensure we're Defo in the 3rd pot, you know how Sep loves us, the cwiss sunt.

[French Toasht]

Yes it is crazy that the draw is being made before the outcome of the Euro qualifiers is even known but the reasoning behind it is that this world cup will be in South America and the South American qualification having 18 games during the qualifiers is much longer than the European qualification procedure and thus always starts much earlier in advance of the tournament, thus why all the other federations draws are being made so early.

I agree with you paul o shea, the old system would have benefited us more but in saying that the current system would have benefitted us much more in the Brian Kerr era, in that he left when we were 14th in the world (primarily due to an impecable record in friendlies and always playing our strongest XI in them and not treating them for the desired purpose of experimentation).

Like for example Norway have not done anything for years, all of a sudden, they are doing well half way through their campaign and are now top seeds. But in fairness its good to see little old Montenegro getting reward for their efforts so early in their existence as a footballing nation. I think I might be right in saying Croatia beat their seeding to qualify for their first tournament ever as an independent nation in Euro 96, so it would be equally impressive if Montenegro could almost emulate such an achievement.

[Colbert Report]

Well lads this is probably the wrong thread for this but the World Cup 2014 qualification draw takes place on July 30th 2011. The seeding will be decided purely on the latest FIFA rankings immediately before the draw. There will be 9 groups. 9 winners qualify automatically. 8 best runners up go into play offs. As it currently stands Ireland are ranked 22nd in Europe and will be a third seed. If we can get into the the top 18 by the time of the draw, we will be second seeds.

As it stands the seedings would be as such:
Pot 1:
Spain
Holland
Germany
England
Portugal
Italy
Croatia
Norway
Greece

Pot 2:
Serbia
Slovenia
Russia
France
Montenegro
Switzerland
Slovakia
Denmark
Sweden

Pot 3:
Turkey
Czech Republic
Israel
IRELAND
Ukraine
Belgium
Romania
Bosnia *** (May be disqualified)
Bulgaria

Pot 4:
Lithuania
Albania
Hungary
Belerus
Georgia
Armenia
Northern Ireland
Scotland
Poland

Pot 5:
Austria
Estonia
Latvia
Finland
Macedonia
Moldova
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Wales

Pot 6:
Iceland
Luxembourg
Faroe Islands
Kazakhstan
Liechtenstein
Malta
Andorra
San Marino

Heres hoping we can sneak our way into the second seeds but if it were to stay as it is now, probably the worst case scenario would be to get would be Spain from the first pot and a rejuvinated France under Blanc from the second. A combination of Norway and Slovenia would be just lovely.

Why might Bosnia be disqualified?

[DannyInvincible]

They were suspended from competition on the 1st of April over their football association failing to appoint a single president (http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/2931/go-global/2011/04/01/2420960/fifa-suspend-bosnia-herzegovina-from-international) in place of its three-man set-up where a Serb, Croat and Bosniak-Muslim all shared power. FIFA have since imposed a "normalisation committee" (http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,12010_6867848,00.html) of their own to govern the association, however, enabling Bosnia to compete once again, so I don't know how likely disqualification is at this current moment in time. Probably not very.

[pineapple stu]

I don't know how likely disqualification is at this current moment in time. Probably not very.
Think you're right there. I don't recall a European nation ever being disqualified (for reasons other than out and out war). Some (Greece most recently) have been suspended and have fairly quickly done what UEFA wanted, and so were let back in. I'd imagine Bosnia will do the same (and I think I saw somewhere that they already have taken steps).

Draw time again though; love that time! :)

[Stuttgart88]

Vladimir Weiss out for the season. Who do Slovakia play in June?

[pineapple stu]

Lazy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012_qualifying#Group_B)! :p

Andorra at home.

[Kingdom]

Vladimir Weiss out for the season. Who do Slovakia play in June?

Andorra, in Slovakia. So all in all, it matters little. He is a decent player though, so if it means that his pre-season is only a recuperation and he's under-par for the start of next season, when we play them, then happy days. Not that I'd wish ill-will on him, or them, karma etc....

[Edgar]

Heres hoping we can sneak our way into the second seeds but if it were to stay as it is now, probably the worst case scenario would be to get would be Spain from the first pot and a rejuvinated France under Blanc from the second. A combination of Norway and Slovenia would be just lovely.

I have you with 0.03% chance of landing in the second pot :)

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/04/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-uefa-10000.html)

What other friendlies besides the Nations Cup do you have planned? I know Italy canceled their USA tour.

[SkStu]

I have you with 0.03% chance of landing in the second pot :)

so you're saying there's a chance...

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_gAwTMATXyBM/SgT3Xv2WiSI/AAAAAAAAAAc/zvW0-K0cYpc/s320/dd.bmp

[paul_oshea]

I love that moive, thats exactly what i thought when i read the 0.03%. Brilliant.

You mean, not good like one out of a hundred? I'd say more like one out of a million. :D

Big Gulps huh? Well see ye later guys.

[SkStu]

Oh check out the funbags on that hosehound

[SwanVsDalton]

What's the soup de jour?

It's the soup of the day.

Sounds nice, I'll have that.

[Fixer82]

Harry.....I took care of it!