Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

[Metrostars]

Russia 17
Ireland 15
Armenia 14
Slovakia 14
Macedonia 7
Andorra 0

7 October
Armenia - Macedonia
Slovakia - Russia
Andorra - Ireland

11 October
Russia - Andorra
Ireland - Armenia
Macedonia - Slovakia

[theworm2345]

If we win both our matches we are guaranteed at least second place. If we do that and Slovakia beat Russia we get first.

[elroy]

Croatia won tonight so I think automatic 2nd place is well out of our group now

[tommy_c12000]

I am emotionally and physically drained from the day's events. Crazy but ultimately very satisfying day. Don't know what more to say really, been going crazy on mobile and facebook for the last 3 hrs, have no energy left. Going to bed a happy man. We are so so so close . . . . . .

[geysir]

Croatia won tonight so I think automatic 2nd place is well out of our group now

Croatia have to be favorites to win their group and Greece for 2nd spot, Greece only drew away to Latvia tonight.

[DannyInvincible]

We won't get the automatic qualification spot for runner-up if either Denmark or Norway beat Cyprus. Croatia may well win group F now. They're a point ahead of Greece although those two still have to play one another. Greece are on 18 points though with two games to go. Croatia are on 19 with two games to go. If they both tally over 21 points, that'll also knock us out of the running. Really can't see us taking the runner-up spot, although if all those teams do somehow manage to mess things up completely à la Slovakia this evening and they end up on 15 in the runners-up table, goal difference will come into play.

[legendz]

After tonight I don't think the Armenia game can be taken for granted. With our poor home record, they'll be coming in hope. A Slovakia win over Russia on the next matchday give us a great chance to win the group.

[DannyInvincible]

I'm wondering where the two draws against higher-ranked opposition will leave us as regards the rankings that will dictate possible seeding for the play-offs. This list needs to be updated, but we'll have a better idea how we're faring when it is as, at present, we wouldn't be seeded in any play-off draw: http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

In the meantime, these are the current second-placed teams throughout all the groups:

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc12/poguemahone85/ties.png

"AG" stands for "away goals" and "rating" is the team's current UEFA ranking. The others are pretty obvious.

We have one game left, as far as that table is concerned, as our results against Andorra will be discounted from the tie-breaking tally. So, if any of those other teams manages over 15 points for the purposes of the tie-breaking table, we'll have to settle for the play-offs if we finish second. If no team manages 16 or more points but one or more finish on 15 points, it will be decided on goal difference. It's not likely it will come to that anyway, and even if it does, you can see that the likes of Sweden and Denmark have superior goal differences to us at present. Unless we bag a few against Andorra, of course. Still, I can't see it coming down to goal difference as far as we're concerned anyway.

Edit: Actually, no, sorry. We'd have to score our goals against Armenia as our Andorra games will be discounted.

[brine3]

You'd expect Denmark to beat Cyprus so we can forget that.

[tetsujin1979]

I think it was called "The group that couldn't slow down"

[tetsujin1979]

I think it was called "The group that couldn't slow down"

[tricky_colour]

Russia 17
Ireland 15
Armenia 14
Slovakia 14
Macedonia 7
Andorra 0

7 October
Armenia - Macedonia
Slovakia - Russia
Andorra - Ireland

11 October
Russia - Andorra
Ireland - Armenia
Macedonia - Slovakia


Simplify this by awarding 3 points from Andorra


Russia 9 20
Ireland 9 18
Armenia 8 14
Slovakia 8 14
Macedonia 7
Andorra 19 0

7 October
Armenia - Macedonia
Slovakia - Russia

11 October
Ireland - Armenia
Macedonia - Slovakia

So 4 matches which could go any of 3 ways I think that is 81 combinations?

Worth pointing out that if we lose our last match we can still qualify?

Everything will be decided by the final game.

[Stuttgart88]

Russia 17
Ireland 15
Armenia 14
Slovakia 14
Macedonia 7
Andorra 0

7 October
Armenia - Macedonia
Slovakia - Russia
Andorra - Ireland

11 October
Russia - Andorra
Ireland - Armenia
Macedonia - Slovakia

Let's say Slovakian fails to beat Russia (likely). That means a win in Andorra and a draw against Armenia gets us second.

2 points this week, yet a pivotal advantage over Slovakia. Mad stuff.

We must be overwhelming favourites to get a play-off spot at this stage. Slim chance, but a chance, to win the group.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the 1,876th time on foot.ie: I think there's not much wrong with our team that a good central midfield wouldn't change.

Dunne, Sledge & O'Dea all showed their mettle in the last few days. Kelly did well - better than O'Shea imo.

Unfortunately, having a sub-par midfield makes us a poor team. Dogged, but poor.

[tetsujin1979]

Am I right in thinking that we can't top the group if Slovakia don't beat Russia?

[tricky_colour]

If we win both our matches we are guaranteed at least second place. If we do that and Slovakia beat Russia we get first.

Oh today's performance by Slovakia the chances of Russia not beating Slovakia are zero.
Fortunately it won't be played today!!

[Stuttgart88]

(1) Worth pointing out that if we lose our last match we can still qualify?

(2) Everything will be decided by the final game.

(1) Only if Armenia lose to Macedonia (unlikely). If that game is a draw, there's no way Armenia can come behind us I think. Anything worse than 0-1 means they beat us on head-to-head. Even 0-1 means they'll go through on GD, because they scored more goals against Slovakia than we even got corners.

(2) Don't think so.

[tricky_colour]

Am I right in thinking that we can't top the group if Slovakia don't beat Russia?

Yep, if Russian get a point we can only match them on points and that is not good enough as Russia have beat us.

[Stuttgart88]

Barring a bizarre result, the Armenia game is key. Only if Slovakia beats Russia and we fail to beat Andorra is a play-off out of our hands.

Put another way, we beat Andorra and draw with Armenia = 19 points. Slovakia need to win twice.

As a season ticket holder who has paid upfront, I hereby give my approval to the FAI to undercut my ticket price and offer the bandwagon jumping, instant gratification seeking Irish public a €10 ticket to fill the house. Nah, make that €5.

[tricky_colour]

If we can't beat Andorra we might as well give up, or at least hope for other results to go our way.

[Crosby87]

Are the games in OCT also Friday/Tuesday? I hate that ****.

[jbyrne]

As a season ticket holder who has paid upfront, I hereby give my approval to the FAI to undercut my ticket price and offer the bandwagon jumping, instant gratification seeking Irish public a €10 ticket to fill the house. Nah, make that €5.

me also!
but please put them in their own isolated section so i dont have to listen to 90 mins of premiership and celtic talk from those around me

[geysir]

Also conditional, have a water cannon in place for the first signs of a mexican wave.

[geysir]

I think it's just our dna level fatalism doesn't really anticipate other results going our way in the crucial run-in, whereas it seems par for the course in general that pressure/exhaustion sets in and contenders trip over themselves. Just that 4 nil is freaky and they are coming our way.
But Slovakia were well knackered by the end of the first half. The game was played at a frenzied pace in the first half, the Slovaks were burnt out in the 2nd half and easy meat for the perky Armenians.

[pineapple stu]

Barring a bizarre result, the Armenia game is key.
Yup. But the Armenia game suddenly looks a hell of a lot tougher. We always thought it'd be key while keeping an eye on Slovakia's last game; now, it's key for our opponents as well, who may well be on a roll (assuming they beat Macedonia). Going to be a massive, massive game.

Also, if only Robbie had scored that peno in Bratislava... (And if ifs and buts were candy and nuts...)

It does look a very outside chance that Slovakia will do us a favour and beat Russia.

[shakermaker1982]

There was me doubting those stats & projections by Castrol that Danny put up the other day!

Win our 2 games and it's at least a play off. I'd have taken that at HT yesterday when we couldn't get out of our own half!

[tetsujin1979]

Accroding to the wiki article on the group - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012_qualifying_Group_B#Results_and_fixt ures - the Slovakia v Russia game kicks off at 8:15 CET, with the Andorra v Ireland game at 9:30 CET (at least that's how I'm reading it) so it'll be into the second half in the other game before we kick off. Could have some idea of what is needed at that stage

[BonnieShels]

I think it was called "The group that couldn't slow down"
If ever there was a post that summed it up...

[elroy]

For the 1,876th time on foot.ie: I think there's not much wrong with our team that a good central midfield wouldn't change.

Dunne, Sledge & O'Dea all showed their mettle in the last few days. Kelly did well - better than O'Shea imo.

Unfortunately, having a sub-par midfield makes us a poor team. Dogged, but poor.


Was thinking the same this morning Stutt. Look at our first choice XI
Given, JOSH, Sledge and Dunne. Absolutely no problem, in fact its a damn fine defence. Left back is a problem.

On the wings we have McG, Duff and Hunt (two from that three obviously). Again good options, McG has improved this campaign, still dont think he is as good as some Celtic fans profess but he has improved and defensively he was fantastic yday - not a previous strong point of his.

CM - Problems.

Up front - Keane, Doyle, Long, Cox, Walters, Best. Again a pretty strong/decent array of options here.

The lads on the highlights show last night pointed out some errors in our basic flat 4 midfield system that appeared (worryingly) in both Russian games. They played a diamond system and passed the ball around us - with ridiculous ease. Whos to say Armenia wont try a similar system!!?! Whelan and Andrews though they try very hard and just not good enough at controlling a game or imposing themselves on the game. I think our options are either seek a stronger alternative, McCarthy maybe but honestly Im not sure if one is there. The other option is to play a similar system ourselves, employing Fahey/McCarthy in an attacking midfielder sort of role. Yes it would take from our attack somewhat (But what attack was there yday). It hopefully would help Andrews/WHelan out, give me an immediate option and also also the two wingers to link in and move further up the field. IMO our wingers are our best form of attack. Thoughts?

[pineapple stu]

Accroding to the wiki article on the group - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2012_qualifying_Group_B#Results_and_fixt ures - the Slovakia v Russia game kicks off at 8:15 CET, with the Andorra v Ireland game at 9:30 CET (at least that's how I'm reading it) so it'll be into the second half in the other game before we kick off. Could have some idea of what is needed at that stage
Meh. I think we all know we need to beat Andorra in fairness. Shouldn't need another half-time to tell us that.

[paul_oshea]

Lads whatever about our midfield being poor, it is not just simply a case of replacing them. Ye are reading it wrong.

When andrews/kelly/hunt put them under pressure they lost the ball twice, i think whelan and andrews made 1 tackle each further up the field we won the ball back.

There was 3 occassions when Tardelli was shouting at Trap because we just sat too deep and literally didn't make any tackles and they played the ball around us. Tardelli was fuming.

The tactics are horribly wrong. We need to be more aggresive in our defending. A wing and a prayer and some terrible finishing by Russia, saved us last night. It wont save us again.

Take yer heads out of the sand and stop covering your eyes.

[Stuttgart88]

Remember we played a friendly in Norway and S. Reid & Whelan bossed midfield and we played the game in Norway's half - until the heavens opened? God, that seems ages ago now. Paul's right, just sitting doesn't work. We need to be aggressive winning the ball back, but are we good enough?

Part of our problem is that our best players include our front two (both of whom have egos) so it's hard to drop one to change midfield tactics. Likewise we have good wide players who are hard to drop. That means we're stuck with 4-4-2, unless management is strong and drops a big name.

[geysir]

Lads whatever about our midfield being poor, it is not just simply a case of replacing them. Ye are reading it wrong.

When andrews/kelly/hunt put them under pressure they lost the ball twice, i think whelan and andrews made 1 tackle each further up the field we won the ball back.

There was 3 occassions when Tardelli was shouting at Trap because we just sat too deep and literally didn't make any tackles and they played the ball around us. Tardelli was fuming.

The tactics are horribly wrong. We need to be more aggresive in our defending. A wing and a prayer and some terrible finishing by Russia, saved us last night. It wont save us again.

Take yer heads out of the sand and stop covering your eyes.

I think you are contradicting yourself Paul, is it the tactics or the players not playing the tactics?
Anyway, I don't think the tactics are really the issue, the major issue is more to do with the quality of the CM and their midfield awareness. Apart from one aspect - their lack of football ability, often they are exposed, either leaving gaps in front of them or behind them, too far foreword or too deep. It use to be that we would form a disciplined line in front of the back 4 and face the threat in our 1/3 of the field. That discipline has been replaced since the home game against Russia when the enemy got in behind the midfield with ease. So if they get in behind, doesn't that suggest the CM are too far foreword, the holding midfielder is awol?

[paul_oshea]

I was chatting to a lad(PIs cousin) last night, and that rumour about Doyle was true.

He certainly didn't look happy last night coming off, but Trap got it spot on in my opinion.

[geysir]

Remember we played a friendly in Norway and S. Reid & Whelan bossed midfield and we played the game in Norway's half - until the heavens opened?
Most every team Norway play, play the game in Norway's half.

[paul_oshea]

I think you are contradicting yourself Paul, is it the tactics or the players not playing the tactics?
Anyway, I don't think the tactics are really the issue, the major issue is more to do with the quality of the CM and their midfield awareness. Apart from one aspect - their lack of football ability, often they are exposed, either leaving gaps in front of them or behind them, too far foreword or too deep. It use to be that we would form a disciplined line in front of the back 4 and face the threat in our 1/3 of the field. That discipline has been replaced since the home game against Russia when the enemy got in behind the midfield with ease. So if they get in behind, doesn't that suggest the CM are too far foreword, the holding midfielder is awol?

Yep, thats a fair point, but I never mentioned they had to be agressive further up the field, I'm just saying when they were on only 2 occassions they got the ball. I said they need to be more aggressive defensively, I didn't say that inferred moving further up the pitch.

There were many many occassions yesterday where they were literally a yard or 2 in front of the CBs within the penalty box, and not making tackles or trying to even push up on them and give them no space, literally letting them pass around with a yard or 2 of space. If Russia were anyway capable of decent finishing, they would have put us to the sword and won at least 2-0.

And its not just the 2 CM pairing either. The tactic seems to not to press from the wingers(also) or not to tackle.

Btw when I created that thread last night I had a fair bit of drink on me - you have no such excuse above :)

[geysir]

Btw when I created that thread last night I had a fair bit of drink on me - you have no such excuse above :)
Paul, being a mature responsible individual, I don't do excuses - I take responsibility, anyway why would I need an excuse above?

[paul_oshea]

Foreword, foreword, "use"...and the use of "do" above etc ;)

Do you "do lunch" and "not do religion" also?

[geysir]

Typical O'Shea, always focussed on minute errors on the part of others whilst too obliterated to notice or care about one's own glaring shortcomings.

[geysir]

And its not just the 2 CM pairing either. The tactic seems to not to press from the wingers(also) or not to tackle.
I use to point that out years ago, the best teams in Europe closed down the team trying to play the ball out of defense. The Charlton team use to get a lot a flak as if it were a crude tactical misuse of their skills, because the attack minded players especially, spent a lot of effort closing down. Post Charlton, closing down was not a priority. Nowadays the Barca pressing game, 10 players pressing in unison, is the template. If a player is fit enough there is no excuse.
I don't know if our lack of effective pressing is tactical or just endemic in the game they are use to playing in England.

[paul_oshea]

We were talking about you here East Iceland geysir :) Nice try on the projection though :)

Anyway back to the important issues here, and not your hypocrisy. The only hope I have for Trap and his system/tactics whatever you want to call it is, that if we qualify we have another season of the premiership, and any other leagues to unearth or blood some new players, it also gives Mccarthy another years experience in the Premiership. The only downside is none of this changes Traps perception(s).

[geysir]

The only hope I have for Trap and his system/tactics whatever you want to call it is, that if we qualify we have another season of the premiership, and any other leagues to unearth or blood some new players, it also gives Mccarthy another years experience in the Premiership. The only downside is none of this changes Traps perception(s).
You are focussed on Trap's perception /stubbornness as if that's the major issue. It's an issue, but only one issue, there are positives and negatives to Trap's stubbornness.
There is a limit to Trap's perception all right, for example he can't make Ward send in a decent cross, he can't make McCarthy develop before his time.
We can observe that just playing in the EPL is not enough to make the adjustment to international football.

[Stuttgart88]

We can observe that just playing in the EPL is not enough to make the adjustment to international football.That was one thing that really struck me recently. How can these guys all hold their own in the EPL yet be shown up so badly even against average international teams?

That old chestnut again, methinks.

[paul_oshea]

Yes, but many of these players who people on here say "are technically" better than us, have down through the years got shown up in the EPL.

They can play ok for 1 or 2 games, but doing it consistently they aren't up to it.

Our players are better individually, and they should be given the money they are being paid, than the likes of macedonia/armenia/slovakia. Yet every thing you read on here is, "they are superior technically/they will be superior technically" etc. These guys are not in the EPL for a reason. Whether or not you see the EPL as the holy grail or not, is a side issue.

If I get time this evening I am going to write up a bit on the other thread about what I actually really wanted to say(after) last night :D

[AlaskaFox]

The 81 possible Group B outcomes:
http://greenscene.me/2011/09/possible-euro-2012-group-b-outcomes/

Your brain will melt.

[Closed Account]

The 81 possible Group B outcomes:
http://greenscene.me/2011/09/possible-euro-2012-group-b-outcomes/

Your brain will melt.
http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100828054703/uncyclopedia/images/b/b5/Exploding-head.gif
I counted
9(11%) scenarios where we finish 1st (Russia 66(82%), Slovakia 5(6%), Armenia 1(1%))
51(63%) scenarios where we finish 2nd. (Russia 11(14%), Slovakia 4(5%), Armenia 15(18%))

[paul_oshea]

"A new campaign, a new stadium, a new sponsor, a new beginning???? That's what I'm hoping for anyway.

Without getting carried away, it's definitely a winnable group, we definite can get into a top two position. The fixtures are kind for us in the games we play, but they're also kind for us in the rest of the group games too.

While not trying to disregard some of the negative aspects of the new campaign, it shouldn't be forgotten that we went to Eastern Europe and got the result that was acceptable (V Bulgaria) something we've struggled with previously, and we remained undefeated and played very well against one of the games powerhouses.
We also won a match away from home against a top tier country. We went to a place that has become extremely tough and got the full points playing poorly (Cyprus).
The team should be relatively settled in this campaign, and while a few younger faces will make things interesting, everyone should know their role and what is expected of them.
I don't think there's any point trying to predict what will happen in 2011, but by the time Russia come to Lansdowne in Oct either they or Slovakia will have dropped points (they meet in the 2nd round of games) while Slovakia may have slipped up against Macedonia in the first set of games. Either way the group can take a big movement early on, and hopefully it can be a movement in our direction.

I'm fairly positive that the guys will use the experiences of the autumn to kick on and be determined not to miss out again on another tournaement given that in 2012a lot of these fellas could be nearing the end of their international careers.
Shay, Dunney, Killer, Robbie, Duffer all probably will not start the 2014 campaign. That's a fair chunk of our first team. So in that respect it definitely is last chance saloon.
In respect of the opposition we face, despite Slovakia's showing at the world cup, Russia are the main team in the group. They have the ability on their day to tear us (and anyone) a new one. However when not on their day, they are very beatable. Technically they will be superior to us. The timing of our matches with them is good and I think we are capable of gaining an advantage over them.
Slovakia, despite all the success of the world cup, are a team I believe we can beat home and away. They have matured and developed since we last played them, but karhan and vittek aside I think we are the better team. Bratislava should hold no fear. We are relatively fortunate with the lower ranked teams we drew. No nasty bottom seeded teams this time, and Andorra should be disposed of with minimal fuss. Armenia will be sticky. On another thread I posted the results they've had the last few years in Yerevan and while they've been nothing exceptional, every once in a while they pull off a decent result, and one group in particular (2008?) they won one and drew three against the higher ranked teams. The season before (2006) their draw against one of the seeds was ultimately what knocked that team out of second place, so they do have previous.
Macedonia in June has been predicted as being a potential banana skin. I thought we coped extremely well in Bulgaria in similar conditions last year and its a trip where 3 points should be the order of the day (circumstances excepted).
Just to note as well, Armenia, Macedonia and Andorra all were drawn in the same group two campaigns ago, not that it should have much impact on things.

I'm really hopeful, I'm optimistic that the team and management will identify this as a group we can win, and will set out accordingly. One thing I do know is that there is massive interest surrounding the singing section and hopefully we can do our bit, the team do their's and we christen the maiden campaign in lansdowne accordingly."

Interesting read that.

[geysir]

According to Castrol, Slovakia have a 35% chance of beating Russia and we have a 81% of capitalizing on that by beating Armenia.

Whereas Russia have a 65% of securing top spot, by getting a draw/win against Slovakia.

[Closed Account 2]

what results do we want ?

7.10 Armenia - Macedonia
We want a Macedonia win here. Macedonia cannot catch us, Armenia can.

7.10 Andorra - Ireland
We want and need to win this.

7.10 Slovakia - Russia
Assuming we win our two games We ideally want a Slovak win here as they wont be able to catch us
If it's a draw, and we win both our games then Slovakia can't catch us but Russia will (if they then beat Andorra) finish above us on head-to-head. A Russian victory would make it very difficult for Slovakia to catch us, they would be out of it if we beat Andorra that evening.

11.10 Ireland - Armenia
We have to win this, if we lose Armenia or Slovakia might pip us to second, if we draw Slovakia will probably pip us.

11.10 Russia - Andorra
We would want Andorra to win this but I cannot see that happening.

11.10 Macedonia - Slovakia
We want a Macedonia win here. Macedonia cannot catch us, Slovakia can.

So on the 7th October we want:
Macedonia to win at Armenia
Ireland to win at Andorra
Slovakia to win at home to Russia

And on the 11th we want
Ireland to win home to Armenia
Andorra to win in Russia (not going to happen)
Macedonia win at home to Slovakia



But the basics are, we win both our games, we get to the play offs at least
Above happens and Slovakia beat Russia, we top the group.

[Fixer82]

Part of our problem is that our best players include our front two (both of whom have egos) so it's hard to drop one to change midfield tactics.

Trap had no problem dropping Doyle for Long against Slovakia (before Long got injured). Trap doesn't care about players' egos. Doyle was pi$$ed off being taken off yesterday but how many times have we seen Robbie get annoyed. I'd be worried if they were absolutely fine about being taken off




And its not just the 2 CM pairing either. The tactic seems to not to press from the wingers(also) or not to tackle.


For the first 5 - 10 minutes we put them under pressure, won the ball back and played some nice football. Then we sat back and let them take control of the game. Can't imagine that's a tactic rather than the lads being afraid to jump in and get caught out

[thischarmingman]

The 81 possible Group B outcomes:
http://greenscene.me/2011/09/possible-euro-2012-group-b-outcomes/

Your brain will melt.

http://oi54.tinypic.com/2zz6v6x.jpg