Euro 2012 Qualifying Group B - General Discussion

[Irwin3]

I think it's very likely that if we beat Armenia the only way we wouldn't be seeded is if Serbia beat Slovenia AND Bosnia beat France.

So we can cheer for Slovenia and Bosnia. Screw the French! They'd then join us as seeds.

[French Toasht]

But if we come second by only drawing with Armenia then its likely we'll be unseeded?

[Irwin3]

It'd be very close I think. Our average would go slightly down. You get 20000 for a 0-0. I think we'd be crossing our fingers. The Czechs are 675 points behind us. Turkey are 793 points behind. If these teams win and we draw I'd guess that they'd have a good chance of overtaking us. You get 40000+ for a win so their averages would rise.

[Colbert Report]

Forget the seeding BS, give me a draw on Tuesday and I'll be happy to live to fight another day. We're a tiny country lads.

[ArdeeBhoy]

All well and good. But we'll have to play much better to beat Armenia, let alone win a play-off. Personally don't fancy the former happening, currently.
Reckon the first goal will decide it.

A year is a long time in football....

[rebelmusic]

As Colbert said...we're a wee country. Wee hopes and wee expectations and Trap has done fantastic with weee players...Aye i'm ****ed

[BonnieShels]

You're wee'd?

[BonnieShels]

You're wee'd?

[shakermaker1982]

**** the small country ********. Beat Armenia, get seeded and end up with an easier draw. We have wasted enough opportunities over the years, now is the time to stand up and be counted. The rugby boys blew their big chance so let us hope us footie fans have something to plan and dream about next June.

[French Toasht]

**** the small country ********. Beat Armenia, get seeded and end up with an easier draw. We have wasted enough opportunities over the years, now is the time to stand up and be counted. The rugby boys blew their big chance so let us hope us footie fans have something to plan and dream about next June.


Amen. Lets get bloody seeded. The playoffs have always been a nightmare for us. Remember how deflated you felt when you heard we drew France? Or had to play Holland in the Euro 96 playoff. If we are unseeded, all those seeded teams will probably beat us (with the exception of the Czechs, and even that is too close to call.) Lets get Bosnia or Montenegro instead for a change.

If we end up missing out on the Euros via a playoff, we wont have lost it against Croatia or whoever we get, we'll have lost it because we didn't beat the Armenians at home.

[Irwin3]

If we draw we drop about 400 points. A Turkey win would see them gain about 600 points and a Czech win would see them gain about 800 points so they would both overtake us. Of course Belgium and Scotland could theoretically pip the Turks and Czechs to second place in their groups.

[zero]

my concern is that the FAI / management team won't even be aware of this seeded / unseeded situation and just figure 'don't lose to armenia and we'll be in the playoffs'.

[Stuttgart88]

Lets get Bosnia or Montenegro instead for a change.I'm not sure I'd fancy either. I'm scared enough of Armenia.

[swinfordfc]

In fairest in looking back in that to 2007 and then 2009 ..... we were 25th placed in europe ..... now under trap ... we up to 15th .... he is doing a good job ..... football not always the great but we are very tough team and its hard to beat us ..... we not conceded a goal in 8 games now ..... roll on Tuesday and get another win!

[French Toasht]

Tuesday is a fascinating encouter.

The side with the best defensive form in Europe against the side with the best goal scoring form.

Something has got to give.

[Sullivinho]

my concern is that the FAI / management team won't even be aware of this seeded / unseeded situation and just figure 'don't lose to armenia and we'll be in the playoffs'.

Wasn't aware of it myself until I'd finished reading up here this afternoon! I say get it wrapped up in a catchy chant and give it loads tuesday night:

3 points needed to be seeded! 3 points needed to be seeded!

[Scooby Doo]

Absolutely agree. I wouldn't be surprised if Trap and the FAI were ignorant of this.

I remember being appalled watching the RTÉ coverage about a year or so ago when Brady (part of the management team until recently at that stage) had a completely incorrect understanding of the situation regarding James McCarthy's eligability. At that stage, all on here and most other supporters would have know the score - that McCarthy had to play competitively to be tied to us, which he hadn't yet. Brady was more than a little surprised when informed live on air. Even more astounding/worrying was his retort to Bill, upon correction, that 'somebody should tell Trapattoni!'

In that respect, I tend to to fear that the FAI/management are deffo not as 'on the ball' as we'd like to think. Is there anybody on here that may have access to some within the corridors of power who might pass on a gentle reminder of the seeding situation?

[Noelys Guitar]

First and foremost Trapatonni will be thinking about getting the point we need to get into the play-offs nothing else. If we win great. If we don't make sure we get the point. Are the Czechs and Turks better than Montegero? Not from what I've seen in recent matches. Forget the names of the teams and their footballing history and have a look at how they are actually playing. We want the type of team that we can beat over two games (thats if we get the point we need Tuesday. I believe we will win on Tuesday night).

[geysir]

First and foremost Trapatonni will be thinking about getting the point we need to get into the play-offs nothing else. If we win great. If we don't make sure we get the point..
Not just Trap but the team as well, total focus on getting us through.
You can't have seeding on your mind if the score is level with 10 minutes to go. No way would I want the team to have the slightest thought about seeding before this game.

Though we can muse a bit about it, more out of shock that it is within our grasp.

[Scooby Doo]

Armenia are going to be extremely up for this. We are really going to have to be at our best. No mistakes, absolute concentration and doggedness in midfield and ensuring that we don't waste clear chances like we have done enough times already in this group.

Check out the link below. The fans celebrate like they've won the bleedin Euros! That is how much they will want it on Tuesday.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/24352805.html

[Noelys Guitar]

They have been a breath of fresh air Scooby D to be honest. Play some lovely one/two touch football. Nice bunch of fans as well (the ones I've met in New York anyway). But Trapatonni and Tardelli have been brilliant the last week. Gave Andorra the right amount of respect. Said Ireland would come out firing and we did. Won the match in 20 mins. And they will give Armenia ample respect. But unless you have a Messi like player in your team, sides that give away very few goals are usually the ones who triumph over teams that score lots of goals. Shutting off the oxygen supply will be Traps plan on Tuesday.

[shakermaker1982]

If we weather the early onslaught we should take advantage of their dodgy defending.

Go for the win. If we play for a draw we are screwed. No way can we fluke another containment.

[Eirambler]

October 7, 2011 10:57 PM
Haakon said...

Ireland are currently ahead of both Turkey and Czech Republic (source http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html ) If Ireland win by one goal against Armenia, then my calculations suggest the Czech Republic would need to win by 11 goals and Turkey would need to win by 32 goals to pass Ireland.

Serbia only need a draw in the last match to stay ahead of Ireland in the rankings (but a draw isn't enough for them to finish 2nd as they would then lose on head-to-head to Estonia)


So, in other words, a win guarantees us seeding and a draw means we won't be seeded.

Ok, journalists, media, people in the know etc. - this info needs to be put in the wider public domain and to the management so that everyone knows the importance of a win on Tuesday - if we go in with the attitude that a draw is as good as a win, then a draw is the very best we will get. It needs to be understood how important the three points are on Tuesday night so that the players are clear about the situation going into the game.

A seeded playoff would give us a massively improved chance of qualification. None of this we're a small country, we need a miracle crap, what we need is to play the percentages. Two legs against Estonia for qualification anyone?

[Noelys Guitar]

I'm sorry lads but there is no way Ireland are going to go gung ho on Tuesday. We will try win the game but remember Trap was flirting with starting Fahey against Andorra. Not to create more in midfield but to make sure Whelan would be available for Tuesdays game. We will be defending from the front. There will be loads of high balls to Doyle. The full backs will not be bombing down the wings. Don't mind Giles when he says not to play for a draw. Mr ultra cautious 0-0 himself. We will create enough chances from McGeady, Duff and Doyles knock downs to win on Tuesday. I saw Robbie Keane getting some flack on another thread. I thought he played well within himself last night. One superb bit of play between himself and McGeady. I expect him to score on Tuesday night.

[geysir]

I didn't know those UEFA rankings gave you 500 points for each goal scored.
Anyway it doesn't matter who you are playing, the first and last thought should be to get through the game safely.
You'll never hear any decent manager mention ranking points or seeding places at stake, to his team.
Far too much of a presumption involved.

[Stuttgart88]

We're the Cliff Thorburn of international football. We don't do anything other than cautious and methodical. Armenia will be more Alex Higgins.

Thorburn won their big head-to-head (though BBC cut the coverage short cos some Libyans were shooting people in Mayfair).

[Scooby Doo]

Keane injury scare?? Mind games beginning perhaps? Or time to get the rosary beads out again?

http://www.skysports.com/story/0,,19692_7231168,00.html

[Eirambler]

I didn't know those UEFA rankings gave you 500 points for each goal scored.
Anyway it doesn't matter who you are playing, the first and last thought should be to get through the game safely.
You'll never hear any decent manager mention ranking points or seeding places at stake, to his team.
Far too much of a presumption involved.

It doesn't need to be mentioned, it just needs to be known by the players and management. This management team has a history of not being aware of these kind of details.

[French Toasht]

First and foremost Trapatonni will be thinking about getting the point we need to get into the play-offs nothing else. If we win great. If we don't make sure we get the point. Are the Czechs and Turks better than Montegero? Not from what I've seen in recent matches. Forget the names of the teams and their footballing history and have a look at how they are actually playing. We want the type of team that we can beat over two games (thats if we get the point we need Tuesday. I believe we will win on Tuesday night).


Yes but you are naming three sides that are ALL likely to be unseeded. I want any of them over the likes of Croatia.

[Stuttgart88]

Keane injury scare?? Mind games beginning perhaps? Or time to get the rosary beads out again?

http://www.skysports.com/story/0,,19692_7231168,00.htmlNot the crisis it might have been 6 years ago. Long & Walters are both decent replacements, and maybe Doyle will relish being the senior striker.

[Jaysus]

Forget the seeding BS, give me a draw on Tuesday and I'll be happy to live to fight another day. We're a tiny country lads.

Big deal, Armenia are smaller.

[Murfinator]

Wouldn't concern me at all losing him in current form, may actually enhance our team. If all of our squad strikers aren't capable of getting change from an Armenian defence we might as well not go to the Euros to begin with.

[tricky_colour]

Armenia are going to be extremely up for this. We are really going to have to be at our best. No mistakes, absolute concentration and doggedness in midfield and ensuring that we don't waste clear chances like we have done enough times already in this group.

Check out the link below. The fans celebrate like they've won the bleedin Euros! That is how much they will want it on Tuesday.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/24352805.html


It would be their first every major tournament, this is a bigger game for them than it is for us. I'd love for them to make it to the finals however there is one obvious problem with that.

[boovidge]

They're just happy because they get to play the famous Boys in Green on tuesday.

[Cuyahoga]

I was watching Football Focus this morning. I heard Gary Mc Allister say Ireland are nailed on for 2nd place and have done well to get to the play off. I wish I was as confident as Gary. Its going to be a tough night on Tuesday I feel.

[geysir]

I was watching Football Focus this morning. I heard Gary Mc Allister say Ireland are nailed on for 2nd place and have done well to get to the play off. I wish I was as confident as Gary. Its going to be a tough night on Tuesday I feel.

Usually those comments are made without knowledgeable respect for a team like Armenia.
Unlike many of us, I doubt if Gary has sat down in front of his screen and watched Armenia once since we beat them.

But maybe there is something to said about knowledge being a curse.

[ArdeeBhoy]

my concern is that the FAI / management team won't even be aware of this seeded / unseeded situation and just figure 'don't lose to armenia and we'll be in the playoffs'.

So why don't we all e-mail/Ph.the FAI to tell them?? Though seriously don't believe even they're that naive.

Their e-mail address is AFAIK, info@fai.ie and Ph. is 01 8999500 with various direct lines as derivations of the main no, but you need to change the last 2 digits.

Given his knowledge of the lingo, if an old Italian gentleman answers, don't bother trying to explain...
:rolleyes:

[Stuttgart88]

Usually those comments are made without knowledgeable respect for a team like Armenia.
Unlike many of us, I doubt if Gary has sat down in front of his screen and watched Armenia once since we beat them.

But maybe there is something to said about knowledge being a curse.I'd say he hasn't a rashers about Armenia's recent results. Or our recent performances.

[Dvo-Van]

Armenia has already posted a 4-1 and 2-1 against Ireland U21. Same players on the pitch

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X0FIxm8SVY&feature=related)

[Irwin3]

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/09102011/58/world-football-blundering-south-africa-miss-africa-cup-nations.html

We wouldn't be the only team with inept management at least...

[pineapple stu]

Brilliant!

[Stuttgart88]

Could you imagine the furore if anybody else had said "Africa is a jungle"?

[Charlie Darwin]

Has anybody mentioned yet that this is Armenia's cup final?

[ArdeeBhoy]

Or told the FAI...

[p2011]

This is the situation for 2nd place teams at the mo'...
http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html#2011

Factoring out the teams already qualified gives us this ranking:
Portugal
Croatia
Greece
Sweden
France
Denmark
Serbia
Ireland
...i.e. Seven teams ahead of us.

Three of these teams can very safely be ruled out of the playoffs as one of Greece/Croatia will win a group, one of Portugal/Denmark will win a group, and Sweden/Denmark will very likely be the best second place team. It doesn't matter which team does what, three teams can be ruled out.

So that leaves four teams ahead of us in the rankings. In order to be one of the top four seeds we need one of France or Serbia not be involved in the playoffs... which is likely... i.e. France coming 1st in their group (relegating Bosnia to 2nd), or Serbia not to win in Slovenia (giving Estonia 2nd). Perhaps the combination best would be France qualifying and Serbia losing out to Estonia, giving us the one in four chance of facing Estonia to qualify. ;-)

[p2011]

Afterthought:
If we fail to get seeded, I think we are doomed. So it's essential we get past Armenia and that either France or Serbia stay out of the playoffs. My reading.

There is a big gap between the non-seeded teams (who look beatable, Czechs/Scots/Estonia/Bosnia/Montenegro...) and the seeded teams (who are all better outfits than us, France/Serbia/Croatia/Greece/Sweden/Denmark/Serbia...).

I know Bosnia and Montenegro and the Czechs are not mugs, but they're beatable.

[Stuttgart88]

The Serbs don't look as formidable as they were.

[Kingdom]

Irwin3 and myself conspired to give all the scenarios on another thread, but that's fairly close P2011.

The three big matches of the night that will dictate our seeding status are:
Turkey V Azerbaijan
France vs Bosnia
&
Slovenia vs Serbia.

The other games Denmark v Portugal, Georgia v Greece and Croatia v Latvia, should go to plan.

provided we do our bit and beat Armenia....

[Kingdom]

The Serbs don't look as formidable as they were.

If it came down to it, would you like to play them?

[p2011]

@Kingdom:
Yes, now I see that on the other thread. Fair play, good to see we are all barking up the same tree.

I think Turkey will squeeze past Azerbaijan, but Turkey are behind us at the moment. Belgium and Scotland are goosed. Not sure whether I would prefer to see France out (for the ha ha factor) or to see Estonia in. Serbia will be hard pushed to win in Slovenia, but France in a big decider in the Stade de France probably means France will get the result they need...

Important we win tomorrow and stay ahead of the Czechs. Like I say, I think being a 2nd seed would be just too big an ask.

@Stuttgart88: True about Serbia, but still lethal striker (on his day) and proper footballers who can keep the ball and an intimidating away fixture.