2011 Presidential Election

[culloty82]

Still over a year away, but Fergus Finlay, Michael D. Higgins, David Norris and Bertie Ahern have already confirmed their interest, and one survey offered Mary O'Rourke, Emily O'Reilly, Mary Davis and Máiread McGuinness as possible choices. Norris at least is the most original of a fairly bland line-up, though whether he could win nominations from four councils is another matter.

[Macy]

Finlay is the stand out candidate of those declared, not sure he'll get the Labour nomination though. I don't see the big deal about Norris tbh.

[OneRedArmy]

Michael D, good for Ireland, good for the League of Ireland!

[Lionel Ritchie]

One would hope Bertie Ahern would have to wait at least two terms to have his role in Irish Politics re-evaluated in a more flattering light -by which stage he'll be in and around 70. One would hope.... but in this country nothing would surprise me.

[Eminence Grise]

Many of the people on that list have no interest in running. Finlay has re-invented himself with his Barnardo's job, but this is the guy who lobbied for the tobacco industry with Wilson Hartnell PR in between his Labour gigs, and who took a lot of undeserved credit for Mary Robinson's election. (Phoenix have a bluntish hatchet job on him in the current issue.) He's not particularly liked in the party, and unless he does a lot of lobbying is unlikely to get the nod over Michael D, which would leave him counting on getting 4 local authorities. I think Labour would probably see their current paper levels of support as being enough to get a candidate with broad appeal elected. Michael D would also pick up disenchanted FF votes in the west, which Finlay is unlikely to do.

FG could have reasonably credible candidates. I've heard Mairead McGuinness mentioned a few times, but she's too canny to rule herself in or out. It's been a while since her TV and journalism work, and being in Brussels hasn't increased her profile as much as Ear to the Ground did. John Bruton has also been mentioned, and he could do well. At least he has a track record as Taoiseach and EU ambassador to the US to push his international statesman credentials (or should that be salesman, given the nature of our presidency?)

Norris is entertaining and gets passionate about issues, but the presidency usually requires a more phlegmatic individual. I met him at a Junior Chamber do years ago, and he's a decent man - always get my Senate vote - but he's not likely to get 4 councils backing him, especially if the party HQs insist on discipline and one candidate only.

Is Ahern really a contender for FF? God forbid. The thought of fourteen years of that smarmy git makes my stomach churn. But Cowen doesn't like him, and I'd be fairly sure that a royal shafting for Ahern would go down well with a lot of FFers outside the capital. I thought Brian Crowley was lining himself up, and his long stint in Brussels would work for him, because the same distance that doesn't help Mairead McGuinness means he's untouched by the banking/builder croneyism of the party domestically. He's articulate, bright and a right of centre, conservative Catholic, which appeals to a certain type of voter, and he also polls up to a double quota in the European elections.

I can't see the Greens running anybody, except as a token candidate (Trevor Sargent, Nuala Aherne maybe?), and they would probably be well advised to save their money for the general election campaign, where it will be more needed.

Which leaves SF. A few years ago, you'd have gotten decent odds on Gerry Adams taking the Army Salute outside the GPO on Easter 2016. But he lacks credibility down here (mainly from the minor party leaders' debate on Prime Time during the last election) and even though there are rumblings of a power struggle initiated by members in the Republic, there's no credible candidate. Mary Lou McDonald is a spent force.

I can't see any independents or fringe parties (SP, PBP, SWP etc) getting nominated to run, so I think it'll be a Labour or FG president, and I'd lean towards the latter, even though I'd like to see Michael D.

[Mr A]

I really, really want Bertie to run. Just to see him resoundingly beaten.

[Eminence Grise]

I really, really want Bertie to run. Just to see him resoundingly beaten.

I'll drink to that!

[OneRedArmy]

I really, really want Bertie to run. Just to see him resoundingly beaten.....with a plank with nails on the end.

You forgot to finish your sentence there Mr. A. Happy to oblige.

[Spudulika]

While there are positives for each candidate, even Bertie (I have to gob to the side), the best person for the job is Norris. There are very simple and concrete reasons why.
1. The pink economy - I read a terrific position paper on this from a Stanford student 2 years ago (at a conference on FDI) which drew links between tolerance of alternative lifestyles and growth. Now alot of this was purely academic, though there is a definite positive to be gained.
2. Promotion of tourism, culture and the arts - Norris is clever enough to step away from the fruitloops like Aosdana and astute to embrace modern music and theatre, as well as be bitingly critical of the destruction of the environment. I was only a child on the march to prevent the destruction of the greatest Viking site in Europe, both he and Mary Robinson lay down in front of bulldozers and diggers, if I remember rightly he was dragged away by 2 roughnecks from Carlow and walloped.
3. Eloquence - having seen our unelected President in action again last week (in the flesh) I can only say that she's not a person I want to speak on my behalf, how someone makes a piece of trash like Luzhkov look like a statesman I'll never know. She was more wooden than that little Italian kid with the big nose. Norris can speak well, has other languages and is very quick on his feet.
5. Clean - with respect to all the others on offer, Norris is one of the only people involved in Irish politics who I would consider as having clean hands. Having met him both inside and outside the Oireachtas on more occasions than I can count in the last 30 odd years he's somebody with a conscience who would be the perfect statesman.
6. Practical - he knows the value of a euro and this will help him get investment into Ireland. He was one of the first people to attempt to remove the nefarious stranglehold held by the RSAI and corrupt individuals in the DOE to allow proper historical and archaeological investigation of sites and studies in Ireland. Not to mention highlight the wholesale destruction of the environment as well as the massive and illegal removal of the archaeological record of our country, while pointing out that much was being done in cahoots with those who were tasked with protecting it.

If Bertie gets in.....well, we get the government we deserve!

[Fr Damo]

My own pref is Fergus Finlay but think it's way too early to talk about it as McAleese only came to the fore 7 weeeks from the elction in 1998. In other words, I wouldn't like Norris or Finlay to start canvassing to be upstaged and piped at the post in 14 months time by someone not even considered at this juncture.

For Bertie to be considering it is another middle finger to us all.

[bennocelt]

I really, really want Bertie to run. Just to see him resoundingly beaten.

Yeah def but could you imagine if he actually won it!!!! Irish people and their love of voting for monkeys:mad:

[centre mid]

Sean Kelly has a decent chance if he goes for it.

[culloty82]

Looks like he is putting his name forward now.

[culloty82]

So, Bertie Ahern tells the people of Poland not to make his mistakes, and announces his candidacy in the same sentence - the words snowball, chance and hell come to mind.

[Mr A]

The man is clueless. He really is.

[dahamsta]

He really isn't. He's just overconfident.

[John83]

I don't know if he's even that; the slimy little ******* could win.

[dahamsta]

I didn't say the Irish weren't idiots in the face of overconfidence...

[OneRedArmy]

He also managed to get the "it was Lehmans wot dun it" line in again as well.

George Hook made a promise last year that if Bertie ran he would run as an anti-Bertie candidate.

[Macy]

George Hook made a promise last year that if Bertie ran he would run as an anti-Bertie candidate.
Great, dumb and dumber...

[Kingdom]

I dunno fellas, he's got as good a chance as the others. FF will have a core of people who will vote FF regardless, that much is very clear. I've already heard people say that he can't do any harm there (normal people too, one's I'd have lots of time for), and that they'd vote for him for that, just to prevent him running for Dublin Lord Mayor! Madness.

Of the alternatives, you'll have the bashers out for Norris, while excuses or claims of eccentricity will be held against Michael D. Who does that leave? Sean Kelly?

Needless to say I won't be voting for the *****.

[Macy]

Would he get the FF nomination though? The parliamentary party will either be decimated, or on the verge of decimation.

[dahamsta]

I think now he's out of a position of power, it's unlikely, and he's unable to uncover the bodies, because he'd incriminate himself into the bargain. I think Bertie should stick to writing books for morons, his power base is nearly gone.

[Kingdom]

Nothing will surprise me about politics in this country, even if I don't understand it completely. Cowen will still top the poll is Laois Offaly at the next election, regardless of the mess he's helped create. That's not speculation, thats's from living in the constituency and hearing the locals who still revere him, and won't have a bad word said about him. It's the European's fault don't you know.

[bennocelt]

I think now he's out of a position of power, it's unlikely, and he's unable to uncover the bodies, because he'd incriminate himself into the bargain. I think Bertie should stick to writing books for morons, his power base is nearly gone.

Agreed, and what with not able to get the older brother elected in his heart land of Drumcondra last time around that must surely have opened his eyes to the fact he aint as popular as he thinks (or RTE like to spin)

[dahamsta]

Mary O'Rourke is another example of vote-because-they're-there stupidity. Having had experience of her in Enterprise wrt IrelandOffline and the TE privatisation, I literally applauded when she lost her seat in 2002, and, sadly, wasn't in the least bit surprised when she won it back at the next election. I understand that she works very hard - "like a black", I'm sure she'd tell us - but seriously, the woman is a pig ignorant gombeen. She makes Martin Cullen look bright, and Batt O'Keefe positively refined.

Yet they were all singing her praises again just weeks ago when she stated Obvious 101, that FF wouldn't be in power after the next election, as if it were somehow clever, or brave. Honest to god like, the media in this country!


Nothing will surprise me about politics in this country, even if I don't understand it completely. Cowen will still top the poll is Laois Offaly at the next election, regardless of the mess he's helped create. That's not speculation, thats's from living in the constituency and hearing the locals who still revere him, and won't have a bad word said about him. It's the European's fault don't you know.

[paudie]

I genuinely believe that there is no way Bertie would win a Presidential election against a half credible candidate. I find it hard it hard to believe that Bertie actually thinks he could win.

[dahamsta]

Bertie thinks he's the second coming paudie, never underestimate his arrogance.

[OwlsFan]

I suspect it will be an agreed candidate as neither the country nor the parties can't afford an election. Pity John Hume isn't a well man as he would have been an ideal candidate.

I wouldn't like any of the candidates mentioned above except perhaps Fergus Finlay.

Gay Byrne anyone? ;)

[Macy]

Gay Byrne anyone? ;)
Mr FF Quango man himself?

[culloty82]

Jackie Healy-Rae throwing his hat in the ring (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0404/1224293735586.html).

[bennocelt]

Jackie Healy-Rae throwing his hat in the ring (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0404/1224293735586.html).

Ireland kind of deserve a president like that really, TBH

[peadar1987]

In a perverse way, I actually kind of hope he gets it. In the same way as there's a part of you that's very interested in seeing plane crashes and volcanic eruptions.

[BonnieShels]

People said in 1997 that they would leave if Dana got in... what would happen if the mutant won?

[culloty82]

The mystery behind Seán Gallagher's entry into the race appears to be solved if you consider that Tony O'Reilly appears to be giving him maximum publicity. First, Gavin Duffy gave him his backing in the Independent-owned regional press and today it's being reported that 10 FF Oireachtas members are preparing to vote for him (he used to belong to the party). Clearly, he has been chosen to stymie a Higgins/Norris presidency.

[BonnieShels]

I'm voting for Kodos.

[Macy]

The mystery behind Seán Gallagher's entry into the race appears to be solved if you consider that Tony O'Reilly appears to be giving him maximum publicity. First, Gavin Duffy gave him his backing in the Independent-owned regional press and today it's being reported that 10 FF Oireachtas members are preparing to vote for him (he used to belong to the party).
Martin this morning calling for parties not to block independent candidates, and the FF wouldn't do so. "Independents" in the Sean Gallagher sense no doubt, an FF appointee to the board of FAS none the less!

[Cuyahoga]

I dont know what to make of this latest story. Is Helen Lucy Burke a homophobic journalist looking for attention before she pops her clogs and/or is David Norris an unsuitable person for President exposed by a civil minded journalist. I would go with the former.

[Eminence Grise]

More like a blatant smear intended to conflate homosexuality with paedophilia, orchestrated by some very unsavoury source - probably right of centre fundamental Christians.

You know, the kind of people who brought upon us the Ferns Inquiry, borstals, Sean Fortune, Magdalene Laundries etc etc.

Lovely people, mass-goers and communicants the lot of them...

Wasn't HLB mainly known as a fearsome restaurant reviewer, who stuck the knife in more than she ever praised?

[Mr A]

I'd add in a cynical attempt my said reporter to get some publicity as well.

Unfortunately this could torpedo Norris.

[Macy]

Unfortunately this could torpedo Norris.
He isn't actually even a candidate yet, but it could hit him with the conservative FF councillors he needs. Although with two "Independent" FFers in Gallagher and Davis also looking he'd be hard pushed to now anyway (perfectly legitimate for FG and Labour to not support competition for their candidates imo).

I don't see this as anything but mud slinging. Probably damage done at this stage, unfortunately.

[peadar1987]

It's a pity, I've spent the last week in the Netherlands and Belgium, and the general opinion of people there of us is that while individually they love us, societally, we're a conservative, homophobic, catholic-dominated social and cultural backwater. Perhaps electing an openly gay President would go some way towards dispelling that not-wholly-undeserved impression

[Macy]

It's a pity, I've spent the last week in the Netherlands and Belgium, and the general opinion of people there of us is that while individually they love us, societally, we're a conservative, homophobic, catholic-dominated social and cultural backwater. Perhaps electing an openly gay President would go some way towards dispelling that not-wholly-undeserved impression
Their opinion probably is true, however, I still don't think the chance to show we aren't complete bigots is enough a reason to vote Norris. imho obviously.

[peadar1987]

Their opinion probably is true, however, I still don't think the chance to show we aren't complete bigots is enough a reason to vote Norris. imho obviously.

Obviously! But one of the biggest functions of the President is to project a good image for Ireland at home and abroad, and proving we're not complete bigots would be a nice addition to our image!

[DannyInvincible]

I can't really say I've been following the "presidential race" with any strict adherence, being over here in England, but Norris would be Europe's first openly gay president, if I'm not mistaken, not including Icelandic prime minister, Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir, who I believe to be the world's first openly gay prime minister or head of government.

Has Norris fallen behind from a leading position in the opinion polls then or does it remain to be seen? It would be a shame really if he was to lose out over this. The "revelation" stinks of homophobic sabotage and I've always had the impression of Norris as a resoundingly charming and progressively-minded chap; maybe too forward-thinking for his own good. Could this stunt have the unintended effect of galvanising sympathy and support around him?

[Macy]

Obviously! But one of the biggest functions of the President is to project a good image for Ireland at home and abroad, and proving we're not complete bigots would be a nice addition to our image!
Just not convinced Norris would be able to pull off the former, to be honest.


Has Norris fallen behind from a leading position in the opinion polls then or does it remain to be seen? It would be a shame really if he was to lose out over this. The "revelation" stinks of homophobic sabotage and I've always had the impression of Norris as a resoundingly charming and progressively-minded chap; maybe too forward-thinking for his own good. Could this stunt have the unintended effect of galvanising sympathy and support around him?
I don't think there have been any polls yet, bar one of those stupid liveline text yokes. I personally think that anyone who can't see through that getting dragged up now, wouldn't have voted for him anyway.

As I said earlier, I really can't see him getting a nomination. Two FFers in Gallagher and Davis disguised as independents, and FG and Labour running candidates so legitimately not interested in supporting other nominations at council level, where's he going to get the councils from?

[Eminence Grise]

Norris has an advantage over Gallagher and Davis in that he can try for nominations from 20 members of the Oireachtas. There are enough independents between both houses to achieve this, and it might suit the technical grouping in the Dail to endorse a candidate who has a realistic chance of beating whoever FG can force into running and whoever wins the Labour nod. I suspect Gallagher is being used to keep local FF cumainn busy, and make mischief for FG and Labour. FF need somebody to run to show the troops that it's still in business, but not at the risk of damaging one of the party statesmen/women. Davis, I'm not sure about; I don't know where her support is going to come from.

[passinginterest]

The nearest thing to a poll I've seen was thejournal.ie (http://www.thejournal.ie/poll-who-would-get-your-vote-as-next-president-of-ireland-144310-May2011/) effort on the 27th of May, which had Norris with over 50% of the support from a poll of over 3000. Obviously being an internet based poll it was probably open to manipulation.

The recent revelations are a complete character assasination attempt and the sad thing is it will probably be enough to prevent him even getting a nomination. I'm not 100% that he'd get my vote but I'd certainly be considering him and I'd like to at least see his name on the ballot.

[dahamsta]

Be interesting to run a poll on Foot.ie, given the subject matter and associated stereotypes. Is the candidate list complete yet?

[Macy]

Be interesting to run a poll on Foot.ie, given the subject matter and associated stereotypes. Is the candidate list complete yet?
Candidate list isn't complete. Sure there's at least 3 looking for just the labour nomination. FG hasn't decided yet (although McGuinness is the only declared left afaik). There's several rumoured, or having expressed an interest too.

I'm not sure whether a poll would give much indication on the stereotype issue either. Just speaking personally, his sexuality isn't even an issue as why Norris wouldn't get my vote.


Norris has an advantage over Gallagher and Davis in that he can try for nominations from 20 members of the Oireachtas. There are enough independents between both houses to achieve this, and it might suit the technical grouping in the Dail to endorse a candidate who has a realistic chance of beating whoever FG can force into running and whoever wins the Labour nod
I really think if this was a runner, he wouldn't be trailing around the councils. A lot of "independents" in both houses, aren't really independent anyway.