2011 Presidential Election

[Spudulika]

I wonder will his ego get the better of him again. I hope to god not.

[BonnieShels]

Norris is a headline in the Indo. Cripes. At this rate we will have no coverage of Gallagher and Davis. How will we ever let the people know that they are FF shills.

[Macy]

Another "Independent" enters the race. http://www.thejournal.ie/fianna-fail-calls-meeting-to-discuss-backing-senators-independent-aras-campaign-227149-Sep2011/

Who's next - Bertie as an independent? They'd be less FFers if they actually did have an official candidate...

[culloty82]

The only reason I've ever heard of him is because he opposed the Civil Partnership Bill - so much for the radical new direction that Martin wants.

[BonnieShels]

Well he's not an official FF candidate so you can't blame Mickey...
...
...
...
...actually you can.

[Spudulika]

Mickey Harte is supposedly the possible SF candidate, interesting. I won't comment on Tyrone, their style of play or any rumours surrounding the team, but I'd never vote for the man - despite him being a decent skin.

I just wish DN would concentrate on the Seanaid and good causes, but I think he's completely caught up in his own celebrity right now. Thank god I won't see his appearance on that abomination of a show tonight, I hope his intelligent side prevails and he doesn't announce a return to the race.

[BonnieShels]

Spud, you know he will announce his entrance back into the race.

Also heard nothing about Mickey especially from my Tyrone posse.
Is welcome it as I've all the time in the world for the man however I just can't see him winning.

[Spudulika]

Spud, you know he will announce his entrance back into the race.

Also heard nothing about Mickey especially from my Tyrone posse.
Is welcome it as I've all the time in the world for the man however I just can't see him winning.

Agree on Mickey Harte, he's a good man but being linked to Sinn Fein will kill him - despite his success and standing.

I hope, above hope that DN will not do this, but I think he can't help himself. He's always enjoyed the spotlight, now he actually is believing what the meeja are saying about him. However he's going to be slaughtered again - he's the perfect idiot (in the sense of sacrificial lamb). Isn't there a 3rd revelation due about him (or did I hear that wrong way back when)? It's almost biblical at this stage, which is quite apt.

[passinginterest]

I think I have to vote for May Davis now because I got a free Mary Davis pen at the Rovers match last night. I'm pretty sure that's how it works anyway.

[Macy]

I think I have to vote for May Davis now because I got a free Mary Davis pen at the Rovers match last night. I'm pretty sure that's how it works anyway.
She's in jail?

[passinginterest]

I left that open in fairness. Reminder to self to use more commas.

Higgins probably still favourite for my vote at the moment. Still a seriously uninspiring election race so far.

[Dodge]

Still a seriously uninspiring election race so far.

HAs there been an inspiring presidential race yet?

Maybe Robinson as she was a bit of a ground breaker (female, not alligned to FF/FG) but apart from that...

[Cuyahoga]

Matin Mc Guinness is expected to be ratified as SF's candidate tonight. I reckon he will now be favourite. He will do much better than his party's other suggested candidates Mary Lou and Gildernew. It makes for a more interesting race.

[Eminence Grise]

McGuinness hasn't a hope. Looks to me like the swansong of the old guard of SF.

In the unlikely case he does win, I'm starting a petition to have the Aras renamed the Viceregal Lodge!

[John83]

I'm also pretty dubious about McGuinness' chances. There are quite a lot of people who won't vote for a SF candidate under any circumstances. However well he does with first preferences, I can't see him getting the transfers to win the election.

[culloty82]

Dev Óg planning to launch a new party (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0917/1224304265016.html) - reminds me of the old joke that if five Irishmen landed on a desert island, they'd soon split into three parties.
(http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0917/1224304265016.html)

[dahamsta]

Lads, ye don't seriously think either McGuinness OR Sinn Fein want him to win, do ye? It's marketing. Personally I think it's actually a fab bit of marketing, made all the better since he's stated that he'll only draw the average working wage if he wins. We don't have a labour party any more, so Sinn Fein is the new labour. How can ye not see it...!

Course he'll be kicking himself if he does, but like Adams and his seat in the Dail, he'll just get on with it.

[Spudulika]

Agreed with Dahamsta - welcome back, I guess it took something fun to infuse you with new interest - it's clever from SF to run such a name as it means they will secure more MOR votes when this current coalition collapses and Labour go the way of FF. Labour have shamefully caved in to FG (just as much as FG have backtracked on their pre-election promises) and deserve to get a belt next time up. If SF can continue to evolve, and people with brains ask questions, then they could be the legit 3rd force in Ireland. Martin Mc is an outsider for the Presidency, my only worry is that he might just open the door for Gay Mitchell.

[culloty82]

Two Millward Brown polls tonight - one presidential, the other a party tracker:

Presidential Election:

Higgins 32%
Norris 19%
Davis 18%
Mitchell 18%
Gallagher 17%

Party Support:

Fine Gael 42% (-2)
Labour 20% (+1)
ULA/Ind 17% (+4)
Sinn Féin 11% (-1)
Fianna Fáil 10% (-6)

[mypost]

Labour have shamefully caved in to FG (just as much as FG have backtracked on their pre-election promises) and deserve to get a belt next time up. If SF can continue to evolve, and people with brains ask questions, then they could be the legit 3rd force in Ireland. Martin Mc is an outsider for the Presidency, my only worry is that he might just open the door for Gay Mitchell.

The government is 75+37. Labour have to row back on the odd promise or two.

I don't know really how much further SF can go tbh. Some people will never vote for them, they'll never win a bill-signer election, and they'll never be in government. So where next?

[Eminence Grise]

If O'Cuiv leads a walk-out from FF, what odds a rump-FF SF merger? It would close the circle on 1926 and give me a double reason not to vote for them...

I think Wee Martin is a miscalculation for SF. He's too tied to the Troubles to pick up moderate/protest votes here and if he polls alongside Davis and Gallagher, it could damage SF's post-election momentum. Where, apart from SF, is he likely to pickup votes? It also shows that, Pearse Doherty aside, they have nobody else here with even as remote a chance as McGuinness.

The Millward Brown poll is entirely meaningless with Norris in it. And I don't buy Mitchell at 18 when the party is at 42. That's too much of a discrepancy.

[BonnieShels]

There's a definite real life discrepancy between the Mitchell vote and the FG vote.

I'll have to declare interest at this point. I'd crawl to the north pole in the nip before voting for Mitchell for president. I've even been known to vote for the Arch-St-st-st-stickie in Europeans before Mitchell.

I still think there's more political credibility in SF than consider such as a bizarre thing as a merger with ffailures.

Anyway, mickey d is getting my vote.

[mypost]

If O'Cuiv leads a walk-out from FF, what odds a rump-FF SF merger?

Long. Very long.

It's hard for FF to pick a less popular leader than Cowen, but O'Cuiv fits the bill perfectly.

[Spudulika]

The government is 75+37. Labour have to row back on the odd promise or two.

I don't know really how much further SF can go tbh. Some people will never vote for them, they'll never win a bill-signer election, and they'll never be in government. So where next?

I know you're right in every sense about Labour having to give a little, though I am still disappointed in them for going into goverment at all. I know that politics is all about power, though if they'd stayed away, I am certain FF-FG would be ruining the country now and Labour would have come in (probably not to do much more than hand over the last off our state assets to the european/world elite and their irish collaborators) in 18 months with 80 seats. I can dream anyway.

SF will need a completely new Irish meeja to do anything, and that won't happen. Too many owe their position (and advertising) to the same scum who sold out the country so they're not going to let SF get any sort of fair treatment. If FG were still being called blueshirts in the media during the last election, 50 years on, SF will need 100 years to be rehabilitated.

I wonder, other can enlighten me with more knowledge, if the talking heads who proposed a new party before the last election had had the courage of their convictions, would they have done anything? I'm certain at least 1-2 seats would have come their way, and then they could have built on it. Can a new party (not rump FF-nua) start up and grow in Ireland?

[Cuyahoga]

McGuinness hasn't a hope. Looks to me like the swansong of the old guard of SF.

In the unlikely case he does win, I'm starting a petition to have the Aras renamed the Viceregal Lodge!
Next Irish President

Thursday 27th October 2011, 08:00

Next Irish President Hide
Michael D.Higgins 5/6 Gay Mitchell 5/2 Martin McGuinness 9/2 David Norris 8/1 Mary Davis 10/1 Sean Gallagher 16/1 Labhras O Murchu The bookies dont agree with you that he dosent have a hope. He is a likeable figure he would get votes from people that that never voted SF before. ( odds from Paddy Power )

[Eminence Grise]

And the bookies are never wrong? Funny that they have Norris, with no nomination, at better odds than Mary Davis who has a slew of councils and a lot of work done over the summer. Mind you, they're probablly more accurate than some of the polling, which increasingly gives clairvoyancy a good name!

Every new contender will get a boost. There's a novelty attached to having a SF candidate, and no FF candidate. But that will pass once the media start asking Wee Martin about the guns, and people start to question whether they want a former IRA-man taking the salute at the GPO at Easter 2016. Don't underestimate the capacity of the media to tear stripes off somebody they dislike. He'll pick up the regular SF vote, and disaffected FF votes (an increasingly tiny prospect in the overall picture) along the border and in a few hotspots in the old Munster Republic.

Wee Martin isn't about to win the presidency: he's there to twist the knife in the festering wound that is FF, and make SF the third biggest party. That's what I was getting at when I wondered a few posts back if O'Cuiv does lead a walk-out and forms a new party (with a scattering of "slebs" never associated with FF) would the remainder of FF sunder, with some (the Labhras O'Murchu refugees from reality brigade) carrying on to oblivion, and the rest (younger, ambitious, no pensions worth a damn) chowing down on 90 years of schism and rejoining SF. There are a lot of self-interested FF councillors watching Tricky Mickey with horror who would jump ship to SF to preserve their seats if SF can put in a decent showing. That's all SF need. It's a pity they had nobody from the state that actually elects the presidency and had to parachute him, like Grizzly in the general election, hence my swansong comment. (Actually, what does this decision say about Grizzly's future in SF?)

[Macy]

But that will pass once the media start asking Wee Martin about the guns, and people start to question whether they want a former IRA-man taking the salute at the GPO at Easter 2016. Don't underestimate the capacity of the media to tear stripes off somebody they dislike. He'll pick up the regular SF vote, and disaffected FF votes (an increasingly tiny prospect in the overall picture) along the border and in a few hotspots in the old Munster Republic.
People might also reflect that it'd be hypocritical to vote against McGuinness on the basis of not wanting IRA reps on the stage at 1916 commemorations.

I don't think he'll win, but I think the media/ INM might misread the public mood. Especially as he'll clearly be the only one who'll be anti bail out. And it's not like FF/FG or even Labour don't have their own armed struggle histories.

[Eminence Grise]

But no FG or Labour Oireachtas member (off the top of my head at any rate) is a reformed commander of a terrorist organisation. The IRA of the Troubles was very different to the IRA of 1916, which was intended as a standing army for the republic. It's hardly hypocritical to differentiate between the two - one whose actions led to the creation of the state and the other whose actions threatened its security.

I'm unsure about the media picking up on the public mood: there's a part of me that thinks they've done a pretty good job dictating it in recent times. Being against the bail-out is all well and good for posturing, but what would he do when presented with a bill to sell off a stake in the ESB, VHI and Coillte because the troika have dictated it? Refuse? Grounds for impeachment. Supreme Court test? Delaying tactic, if the Council of State even allowed it to get that far. Sign, and be damned. Miriam or Pat or Vinnie probably can't wait to ask him.

Following the media coverage, it's getting dispiriting that voters know so little about the restrictions on the role of the president. We could have an all-powerful amalgam of Christ, Luke Skywalker and Attilla the Hun as president - and he'd still be obliged to consult with Albert, Bertie and Biffo on important matters. If voters accepted that behind all the posturing and preening and grand statements they were simply voting for a champion kisser of babies the race might be more realistic. The Eminence Grise Unscientific Research Co. Inc. asks rhetorically: of the current candidates, who would you let within ten yards of the (real or hypothetical) fruit of your loins?

[Spudulika]

Of all the candidates (in the race) my vote would go for Mary Davis. Michael D, no, not a chance. I disagree with a number of the aggressive Israeli governmental policies, though I don't want our President caught up in his own ego and saying stupid things, it'd be David Norris but with a culchie accent. Gallagher, he's ahead of Gay Mitchell. Martin Mc, well, he's shown he can work in government with people he plotted against and who plotted against him, plus he's intelligent and decent. David Norris I sincerely hope does not believe his own hype and puts aside the goading from the meeja to try get in the race - he's being set up for a fall and he has to know it.

Davis 1, Martin Mc 2.

[Macy]

But no FG or Labour Oireachtas member (off the top of my head at any rate) is a reformed commander of a terrorist organisation. The IRA of the Troubles was very different to the IRA of 1916, which was intended as a standing army for the republic. It's hardly hypocritical to differentiate between the two - one whose actions led to the creation of the state and the other whose actions threatened its security.
Half the Labour leadership come from an Officials background! The point is, that terrorists/ freedom fighters/ defenders (delete as applicable) come in from the cold at some point. Same point as before the last two general elections - if they're good enough for Government in the North, no reason we should get on our high horse about it.


Following the media coverage, it's getting dispiriting that voters know so little about the restrictions on the role of the president. We could have an all-powerful amalgam of Christ, Luke Skywalker and Attilla the Hun as president - and he'd still be obliged to consult with Albert, Bertie and Biffo on important matters. If voters accepted that behind all the posturing and preening and grand statements they were simply voting for a champion kisser of babies the race might be more realistic. The Eminence Grise Unscientific Research Co. Inc. asks rhetorically: of the current candidates, who would you let within ten yards of the (real or hypothetical) fruit of your loins?
Yes, and no. I'd rather someone with some background in politics, as sometimes the occasion does dictate. I'd rather disband the office than have it a purely personality driven contest, and votes going because someone did good work for charidy. Any election can send an important message to the powers that be (here and abroad) about what direction the citizens want to go. If it turns into a defacto referendum on the bail out, that's much better than it being about some bloke or bird being a nice person.

[Macy]

Ok, might've been premature regarding public and media. RTE/ Liveline/ Joe DuFFy doing a right hatchet job on McGuinness and the independents that signed his nomination.

[John83]

I don't think he'll win, but I think the media/ INM might misread the public mood. Especially as he'll clearly be the only one who'll be anti bail out. And it's not like FF/FG or even Labour don't have their own armed struggle histories.
SF might claim to be anti-bailout, but Michael D. won't take that lying down. I've a lot more respect for someone who voted against taking on the debt than someone who insists that, having voted to take it on, we shouldn't pay it, and damn the consequences.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJJ5q1_5jX8&t=19m10s

[osarusan]

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0920/1224304412076.html

Fintan O'Toole going after McGuinness, and rightly so.


It should go without saying that the IRA, partly under the leadership of Martin McGuinness, consistently breached every one of these provisions. But apparently, it does not, so let’s put it on record again. The IRA killed 644 civilians, by far the largest category of its victims (by contrast, and contradicting its self-image as defender of the Catholic community, it killed just 28 loyalist paramilitaries). It incinerated, for example, the members of the Irish Collie Club at the La Mon Hotel. It killed children, including Nicholas Knatchbull, Jonathan Ball, Tim Parry and Paul Maxwell. It practised kidnapping, torture, and acts of naked sadism, such as forcing Patsy Gillespie to drive a van loaded with explosives at an army checkpoint. (Widespread revulsion did not stop the IRA from trying this tactic again.) It held kangaroo courts and imposed arbitrary sentences that included mutilation through so-called “knee-capping”. All of these are war crimes for which there is no statute of limitations. I don’t know what personal role McGuinness may have played in any incident. However, what is clear is that he was, for almost the entire period of the conflict, in a position of authority within the IRA. Legally and morally, this makes him responsible.

[bennocelt]

Half the Labour leadership come from an Officials background! The point is, that terrorists/ freedom fighters/ defenders (delete as applicable) come in from the cold at some point. Same point as before the last two general elections - if they're good enough for Government in the North, no reason we should get on our high horse about it.

.

Agree
And he is meant to be some kind of expert on history:o

[dantheman]

Ok, might've been premature regarding public and media. RTE/ Liveline/ Joe DuFFy doing a right hatchet job on McGuinness and the independents that signed his nomination.

They had a text poll the next day and McGuinness won. Shows you how hatchet jobs in the media rarely work.

RTE Liveline, Joe Duffy, RTE Frontline, Pat the Plank Kenny, and Sindo journalists take note...

[freewheel30]

Whatever about them running / not running a candidate, FF have had a truckload of headlines / publicity this last week or two. Continued headlines could easily be interpreted by the public as "Fianna Fail still matter". :eek:

When is the deadline for the 20 signatures?

[Macy]

They had a text poll the next day and McGuinness won. Shows you how hatchet jobs in the media rarely work.

RTE Liveline, Joe Duffy, RTE Frontline, Pat the Plank Kenny, and Sindo journalists take note...
Yeah I heard that - DuFFy went from "these polls being a reliable marker in the past" to "well it was only a 10 minute text effort that doesn't really matter" or words to that effect. Very funny. McGuinness won't get my first preference, but I really hate the hypocrisy displayed since he was announced.


Whatever about them running / not running a candidate, FF have had a truckload of headlines / publicity this last week or two. Continued headlines could easily be interpreted by the public as "Fianna Fail still matter".
That'd probably be the spin they'd put on it, but I'd prefer to think it's their death throes.

[Mr A]

One thing I've noticed about online and text polls is that SF always seem to do well- better than they do in real elections. Their supporters are either super motivated or they're slightly obsessed with coming out on top in these things. Perhaps a combination of both.

[Macy]

I'd say all parties supporters are quick off the mark. I'd say an element of the vote on Liveline was in response to the ridiculous show the day before, from people who've no intention of voting McGuinness but could see the hatchet job for what it was.

[culloty82]

Whatever about them running / not running a candidate, FF have had a truckload of headlines / publicity this last week or two. Continued headlines could easily be interpreted by the public as "Fianna Fail still matter". :eek:

When is the deadline for the 20 signatures?

Have to be in by today week - strangely, Norris is now up to 12 signatures, after United Left (bar Seamus Healy) and Zappone signed up in the last 24 hours. 14 independents have yet to declare their hand, so if he concentrates on Healy and the six government Seanad appointees, he could still get on the ballet paper through a bandwagon rustling up the remainder. After Fingal revoted for him, Carlow, Donegal, Longford and South Dublin CC will hold votes before the deadline.

[Mr A]

He's not on the aligned and can't be added to it for the Donegal CC meeting according to this: http://www.donegaldaily.com/2011/09/20/norris-donegal-council-bid-is-doomed/

I don't see any issue with questions being asked of McGuinness's dark past. Yes, he's good enough for government in the North- because his party gets the votes under their system. Many don't like that (as is their right), but there it is.

It doesn't make it wrong to question whether they are fit for government here. If they get the mandate then it'll have to be accepted.

Yes, he and his party has moved away from violence and that's great. As we move forward it makes sense to forgive (at least to some extent), but not to forget.

Personally speaking, if we were to bring in someone in from the peace process, I'd prefer it to be from the likes of the SDLP. Mallon or Hume would have been good, although they're probably not in fit state at this stage regardless of whether they'd be interested.

Edit: Incidentally, I didn't hear any of this coverage, so maybe it was mighty unfair! But if Norris got eviscerated for the letter he wrote then Mr Chuckles should be in for a rough ride...

[Lim till i die]

Should questions have been asked about whether the likes of Eamon Gilmore, Pat Rabbite and Kathleen Lynch were fit for government here?

If they were asked twas in far more muted tones.

I'm not a psfer by any stretch but I do enjoy the way they are making the southern establishment squirm. Sean O'Rourke and Sean (son of Joe!!! :rolleyes:) Sherlock practically foaming at the mouth on Questions and Answers, Michael McDowells bare faced lying on the Frontline, along with Uncle Joes transparent hatchet jobs on Whineline could have the opposite to their desired effect with the electorate.

I don't like Martin McGuinness, I think there's something very "off" there but he'll will be getting a big fat number one from me because not only has he shook up the establishment leading to great fun with weeks still left, the other candidates are all worse than Hitler in my eyes.



Fot the record I think Michael Twee will win handily, but if Sinn Fein finish ahead of Fine Gael, I will laugh for six weeks.

[Not Brazil]

Marty McG is not eligible for the South - he has already represented Northern Ireland competitively at senior international level.:D

[dantheman]

Marty McG is not eligible for the South - he has already represented Northern Ireland competitively at senior international level.:D

Would you call Stormont competitive? Surely they are all on the one team

[geysir]

SF might claim to be anti-bailout, but Michael D. won't take that lying down. I've a lot more respect for someone who voted against taking on the debt than someone who insists that, having voted to take it on, we shouldn't pay it, and damn the consequences.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJJ5q1_5jX8&t=19m10s
Sinn Fein never voted at any time to take on the debt.
They did vote once in favor of a finance plan (Financial Support Bill) to allow the gov to present a plan (a bank guarantee scheme) to the Dail, at a later stage if needed, when that plan (the bank guarantee scheme) was put to the Dail, Sinn Fein voted against it.

[culloty82]

Norris now up to 15 signatures - starting to look like he won't need the councils after all.

[BonnieShels]

Just had a brain melt reading this letter in the Metro...


-With regard to Aidan's and Irishman's remarks about Martin McGuinness running for President, I'm confused why SF even put forward a candidate, and here's why.

The President's primary role is to protect the Constitution and that any new laws comply with said Constitution.

In the 1990s, as part of the GFA in which SF part-negotiated, we passed a referendum to amend arts. 2 and 3 of our Constitution in which the ROI renounced its claim over the sux counties of NI.

So, although a SF member who wants a united Ireland, Martin McGuinness would be obliged as President to block any attempt to bring about a united Ireland. Confused. (my abbreviations)

The finer points of Irish republican democracy are completely lost here.

Delightful that these sorts of people can vote.

[Not Brazil]

Would you call Stormont competitive? Surely they are all on the one team

All on the one team - playing internationally to secure investment and jobs in Northern Ireland.

[Mr A]

Norris up to 17 signatures: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0922/president.html But there are only three members left who have not committed.

McGuinness denies shooting anyone, or being responsible for any deaths: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/mcguinness-i-never-killed-anyone-and-was-not-responsible-for-deaths-521557.html

[BonnieShels]

Anything happen since the infiltration of Guinness and Arthur's Day?