2011 Presidential Election

[Spudulika]

Norris isn't even a candidate, but Micheal D has given him a leg up?

I think Finlay would've been a good president, but I'd say Higgins has a good cross party appeal. Not going on anything scientific, but the older generation (more likely to vote) that I spoke too in the run up to Labour selecting, and since, who wouldn't be Labour voters at all seem to have time for Higgins. Whereas Finlay was dismissed as having never stood for office and never put himself in the direct firing line etc.

He's the first actual candidate, but he's head and shoulders above the FG nominee's and the independent FFers looking for nomination. However, him and Norris would be fighting for part of the same vote, if Norris ever makes the ballot.

Unless there is a serious about face Norris shoudl get a nomination. Then again, a coronation of a party hack might be just the tonic again.

[dahamsta]

Agree on Twee, he always comes across as a college lecturer that went in the wrong door. Better Twee than Cox though.

[culloty82]

Norris apparently has 13 confirmed Oireachtas votes (including all United Left TDs), so he should reach the magic 20, even if Sinn Féin decide to enter the race. Paddy Power now has Eamon O'Cuiv has fifth-favourite, though it seems pointless for Fianna Fáil to run anyone just to come fourth.

[Macy]

Unless there is a serious about face Norris shoudl get a nomination. Then again, a coronation of a party hack might be just the tonic again.
Why should he? He either can get enough councils/ members of the Oireachtas or he can't. Them's the rules, which he knew when he entered the race. I really wouldn't have Higgins as a party hack, but whoever it is still has to get bloody elected.

[BonnieShels]

Norris isn't even a candidate, but Micheal D has given him a leg up?

I think Finlay would've been a good president, but I'd say Higgins has a good cross party appeal. Not going on anything scientific, but the older generation (more likely to vote) that I spoke too in the run up to Labour selecting, and since, who wouldn't be Labour voters at all seem to have time for Higgins. Whereas Finlay was dismissed as having never stood for office and never put himself in the direct firing line etc.

He's the first actual candidate, but he's head and shoulders above the FG nominee's and the independent FFers looking for nomination. However, him and Norris would be fighting for part of the same vote, if Norris ever makes the ballot.


Agreed with everything here.

[culloty82]

Independent/Millward Brown Poll:

Norris 21%
Higgins 19%
McGuinness 10%
Cox 7%
Gallagher 6%
Davis 4%
O'Dowd 3%
Doyle 3%
Mitchell 2%

It could be read as Norris running out of storm, but it's equally clear that the people want him on the ballot paper, so FG will hardly benefit if they're seen to block him. Also, seems to back my view that McGuinness is the only credible Fine Gael candidate, but that whoever comes out on top between Norris and Higgins will ultimately win.

[Macy]

It could be read as Norris running out of storm, but it's equally clear that the people want him on the ballot paper, so FG will hardly benefit if they're seen to block him. Also, seems to back my view that McGuinness is the only credible Fine Gael candidate, but that whoever comes out on top between Norris and Higgins will ultimately win.
Pretty even all around - FG have 22% between their candidates (The FFers Gallagher/ Davis/ O'Dowd at 14%). I'd agree, McGuinness looks like the only FG candidate that could win. It could be a pretty divisive campaign for the country if Mitchell gets it imo (Higgins to win in that case).

[Billsthoughts]

Would like to see Norris get it purely because of the symbolism of having a gay president. None of the rest have ever done anything overly impressive.

[culloty82]

Appears Gallagher will be on the ballot paper after winning nominations from Donegal, Longford, Roscommon and Clare County Councils. With FF councillors backing the Dragon and FG unchanged, it appears the council route is practically out for Norris, so time to rustle up the final 5-7 Oireachtas members.

[Lionel Ritchie]

Appears Gallagher will be on the ballot paper after winning nominations from Donegal, Longford, Roscommon and Clare County Councils. With FF councillors backing the Dragon and FG unchanged, it appears the council route is practically out for Norris, so time to rustle up the final 5-7 Oireachtas members.

At last ...we have a candidate I would crawl out of my deathbed to vote against.

[Macy]

It is only 4 councils who've promised to support FF, I mean Gallagher. And even then there is some debate over Longford (they will though as FF majority). They can't actually formally nominate until the election is called. Gallagher was whining about that on Morning Ireland - if he was that bothered he should've have had the balls to be an official FF nominee and he could be properly in the race now (rather than coming out with the Mini Mickey Martin "above politics" nonsense).

[Eminence Grise]

"Well, Sean, I like your enthusiasm but I'm not sure you have what it takes.

And for that reason, I'm out."

[thebooboys]

It is only 4 councils who've promised to support FF, I mean Gallagher. And even then there is some debate over Longford (they will though as FF majority). They can't actually formally nominate until the election is called. Gallagher was whining about that on Morning Ireland - if he was that bothered he should've have had the balls to be an official FF nominee and he could be properly in the race now (rather than coming out with the Mini Mickey Martin "above politics" nonsense).

Think you are mistaken. Gallagher is not, I repeat, is not running as a FF candidate. By your reckoning it could be argued that Mary Davis is also a potential FF candidate. Their declarations of intentions to run as Independents should suffice and if FF, SF or independent councillors back their nominations then what's the problem, particularly if those two parties as of yet do not have an official candidate in the race.

[BonnieShels]

Gallagher is more likely to be president if he's an independent rather than tainted with the scarlet letter that's now the FF logo.
The other reason he doesn't want to be the oFFicial candidate is because he like Davis doesn't have the cajones to be it.

Both of them are all talk and waffle and thankfully they'll have faded into obscurity by the time November rolls around.

[Eminence Grise]

Gallagher isn’t FF in much the same way that Mary Robinson wasn’t a Labour candidate…. I thought he was a former FF member?

The FF parliamentary party can’t endorse a candidate – it’d be an instant ticket to ignominy for whatever sap got it. It makes more sense to get an FF-Lite candidate nominated by local authorities so mugginses won’t see the wolf in sheep’s clothing that he is. If he gets a dire vote. no harm to FF - sure wasn’t he an independent, nominated by a bunch of unimportant councillors?

But if he does half well, it’ll be "proof" that the party’s support is on the way back.

[Macy]

I thought my sarcasm meter was broken for a moment... Gallagher was on the FF National Executive up until a year or so ago. He was election agent for Dermot Ahern in 2007 iirc, certainly launched his campaign anyway. I can't believe anyone would suggest he was independent! Actually, I can - an FFer or an FF apologist.

Mary "Friend of Bertie" Davis might not have held FF positions, but of no doubt that she's another FFer.

The only reason this pair won't run on an FF ticket is because of the brand, not because they've cut ties. It could be argued it's a lack of honesty from the very bloody start.

[culloty82]

Niall O'Dowd has withdrawn, claiming it's too difficult for an independent to compete with the established parties - even though three of them now have council support. Louth has nominated Mary Davis - getting 15 votes, compared to 1 for Gallagher and 0 for Norris.

[Macy]

He actually said it's too difficult to compete in the election, and too expensive, for an independent rather than it being about nominations. Of the three FFers, he was probably the least embedded.

[thebooboys]

Yes, the FF backhanded conspiracy to gain the powerful position of the Presidency is right on track...... In all seriousness though you've got to feel sorry for David Norris in all this. Worse still the 'Independent' vote will be so diluted it seems it'll be a complete waste of time.

[Macy]

Are you really saying that Gallagher and Davis aren't long time FF supporters and associates? People should know the background of the candidates - what next, Norris claiming he's actually straight?

[thebooboys]

Seeing as how the majority of the last 20 yrs of this countries politics has been dominated by FF of course a lot of successful ppl will hav affiliations with the dominant party. You only need look at the ppl flocking to the FG banner now. My point, especially regarding Mary Davis, is that she is running on her career record and her voluntary work, similar to Adi Roche a few yrs back. With that in mind I think people should be HONEST enough to admit that she is an Independent and not attempting to tarnished her name with the currently toxic FF brand.

[culloty82]

Seems odd though that an "independent" could win the block votes of both FF and SF in Louth County Council. John Bruton's backing Gay Mitchell, but can't see who'll vote for him outside Dublin, and Sinn Féin have decided not to make any decision until September, by which stage everyone else will presumably have secured their nominations.

[Macy]

With that in mind I think people should be HONEST enough to admit that she is an Independent and not attempting to tarnished her name with the currently toxic FF brand.
Believe what you want - the only dishonesty is in denying their past involvement with ff. Now the brands toxic, they're suddenly "independent". FF whipped clare councillors to vote for gallagher ffs!

[thebooboys]

Believe what you want - the only dishonesty is in denying their past involvement with ff. Now the brands toxic, they're suddenly "independent". FF whipped clare councillors to vote for gallagher ffs!

So in light of the fact that FF do not currently have a candidate to endorse around the country do you recommend they support no candidate whatsoever???

[BonnieShels]

So in light of the fact that FF do not currently have a candidate to endorse around the country do you recommend they support no candidate whatsoever???

Maybe they could support a candidate they want to rather than succumbing to the whip?
How about that for an idea for a FF politician? Think outside the box for once.

Heavens above man.

[Eminence Grise]

So in light of the fact that FF do not currently have a candidate to endorse around the country do you recommend they support no candidate whatsoever???

They have a candidate to support - they and he are just too chickensh!t to admit that Sean Gallagher is a former FFmember who worked for Rory O'Hanlon.

His spindoctors are currently working on a campaign of plausible deniability for Gallagher if he's accused of being an FFer. So far, the best idea they can come up with is the "no, no: that's my evil twin brother - we were separated at birth" defence. It's widely believed that many FF voters will accept this without question.

[BonnieShels]

Does that count as gullibility or delusion?

[Macy]

Gallagher was on the FF National Executive. Not even as tame as "he worked for x FFer". This is what's laughable about Martin's whole letting FF councillors off the leash to endorse independents, but only once there were good FFers to endorse. Who buys this "new politics" bs? It's more of the same cunning and deviousness.

[culloty82]

Davis gets her second council at Monaghan's meeting, while Gallagher gets an "insurance" nomination from Leitrim. Éamon O'Cuiv has made more noises about running, while the Fine Gael race heats up ahead of Saturday, with Noonan backing Cox and Shatter plumping for Mitchell.

[culloty82]

Alas, Avril Doyle pulls out of the Fine Gael contest - who would her votes be most likely to favour?

[Eminence Grise]

Avril is one of the old guard, so I imagine her vote would probably go to Mitchell, or with her horse industry background, maybe McGuinness. Couldn't see her giving anything to Cox.

Denis Naughton has been withdrawn from the judging panel in the FG beauty contest... Wonder who he would have voted for?

[Macy]

Especially if Norris doesn't get on the ticket, I think the selection of Mitchell helps Micheal D. It'll be liberal v conservative (note both without capitalisation).

I really don't think Gallagher is really in the race - he'll never escape his FF background, and that he was on the National Executive of FF up until 2010 - the others will, quite rightly, keep highlighting this and questioning his independence. He was quite poor on that last week when interviewed on the News at One, and with a journo that'd actually tease it out more he'd have been scuppered there and then.

[Eminence Grise]

Padraig Ó Céidigh is weighing up his options now.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0713/breaking1.html

I've always liked him. But the more independents that run, the more likely one of the parties will benefit from a split vote.

[Macy]

At least we might finally have the full line up of FF stooges with Padraig O Ceidigh. Whether he's Moe, Curly or Larry, to go with Davis and Gallagher, I'm not sure.

[Eminence Grise]

So Fianna Fail he turned them down for the Europeans in 2009?

"The party also sounded out Padraig O’Ceidigh, the Aer Arann chief executive; Joe McDonagh, the former GAA president; and Joe Connolly, the former Galway hurling star. Attention is now on Michael Kitt, the demoted junior minister and TD for Galway East, although his election to Europe would trigger a by-election the government would struggle to win." (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/ireland/article6211704.ece)

and

"Aer Arann chief Padraig O Ceidigh confirmed to the Galway Independent that he had been approached by Fianna Fail "and one other party" to run for Europe. It is thought the Labour Party may have been interested in Mr O Ceidigh. However, he had made no decision at the time of going to print, saying he was happy with his current situation regarding work and family life, and also that he needed to concentrate on Aer Arann given the current economic circumstances." (http://www.galwayindependent.com/local-news/local-news/search-still-on-for-ff-galway/)

He's hardly FF if another party were trying to get him on its ticket. Do you know something else about him?

[Macy]

I think it was always more likely that he'd run for FF. They "put pressure" on him to run according to what I've read - they'd have hardly have put pressure on someone who was genuinely independent. He took over the FF tent at Ballybrit, with Bertie still guest of honour. He was involved with Frank Fahy's ridiculous economic forum, in fact I think he even chaired the thing. Any appointments to quango boards during the Bertie era, who we know only gave positions to "friends"?

How much did the Aer Arann examinership cost the state in lost revenue? How much in subsidies did Aer Arann get over the years?

[Eminence Grise]

I think it was always more likely that he'd run for FF. They "put pressure" on him to run according to what I've read - they'd have hardly have put pressure on someone who was genuinely independent. He took over the FF tent at Ballybrit, with Bertie still guest of honour. He was involved with Frank Fahy's ridiculous economic forum, in fact I think he even chaired the thing. Any appointments to quango boards during the Bertie era, who we know only gave positions to "friends"?

How much did the Aer Arann examinership cost the state in lost revenue? How much in subsidies did Aer Arann get over the years?

Ah, so in your perception he was more likely to run for FF. Don’t you think you’d have to put more pressure on somebody who wasn’t a member to get them to run, especially when it’s clear that even the members don’t want to sup from the poisoned chalice of candidacy? Would another party bother trying to recruit him if he was openly known as a FF member/supporter? Just what have you read anyway? Links would be appreciated.

Could his appearance at the FF tent and Fahy’s forum be down to his position as one of Galway’s most prominent businessmen? Or must we look for conspiracy in the guest list for every bun fight that FF ever organised? I’ve been to a couple of FF bashes, but I’m in another party and would cheerfully dance on FF’s grave!

As for state appointments, I don’t know to what boards he might have been appointed. If you have time on your hands, why don’t you dig out a few back copies of the IPA Yearbook and Diary and come up with some facts and figures for us, since you raised the point?

Aer Arann got subsidies. It’s an EU rule (was it under the ERDF? Anybody know?) So did Ryanair and Aer Lingus. Actually, so did the Scottish airline, Loganair. Is everybody who ever flew a PSO route now an FF supporter too? Even the Scots???

[Macy]

Ah believe what you want, just because he comes across well to you in the media. Not trying to invoke godwins, but i can't think of an equally apt analogy, but I personally think we need a de-nazification process to remove FF and their sympathisers from positions of power in the State. And for me, that includes not putting collaborators in the Park.

[Eminence Grise]

Jesus wept.

I believe what there is evidence to support. I have no reason to agree with your beliefs since you've presented argument bereft of the slightest factual content, and have relied instead on emotive distortions. Give me proof of what you say rather than pot-stirring guff about denazification, sympathisers and collaborators. That might sway my belief. Otherwise this is the most blatant faux-apologetic invocation of Godwin's I've seen in a long time.

[Macy]

Did you miss what the treacherous scum did to the state? They or their lackey's should be no where near power. There should be a purge of anyone appointed by them.

[dahamsta]

Alright lads, ye've made your points. Calm down, calm down. (In best scouse accent.)

[Macy]

If I'm mistaken about O’Ceidigh I'll withdraw the allegation about FF. Still don't think he's right for the job after what happened with Aer Arann anyway, and can't see how he'll get a nomination (unless FF actually nominate him!).

[BonnieShels]

Gallagher and Davis on Vincent Browne.

VB on holidays; Aunty O'Rourke presenting it. My jaw won't come up from the floor.

[culloty82]

You should have seen Monday's show then - it was practically a FF love-in, patting Bertie, Mansergh and Liz O'Donnell on the back for the GFA, with Trimble also on to give an appearance of "balance".

[Eminence Grise]

Calm down, calm down. (In best scouse accent.)

Thanks a whole bunch, Adam. Every time I've looked at your avatar since you posted, I've seen a great big curly perm of a wig on it! And let's not get started on the dodgy tache!!!:eek:

BTW, is there actually such a thing as a best scouse accent? Being born with the far superior (:rolleyes:) Manchester regiolect (now lost, alas!) I've often listened in dumbstruck awe at the "speak whilst swallowing wet gravel" tones of pure scouse!!

So...um... I hope we never have a president with a Lancashire accent (dodgy non-sequitur to get back on topic...sorry)

[culloty82]

The level-headed, intelligent folk on Kerry County Council meet today to nominate their choice for President. As well as Norris, Davis and Gallagher, some guy called Richard McSweeney is also addressing the members, so he's apparently running now.

[culloty82]

Davis won a declaration of intent from Kerry, here's the latest Irish Times poll:

Norris 25%
Mitchell 21%
Higgins 18%
Gallagher 13%
Davis 12%
O'Cuiv 11%

[culloty82]

Norris assembling his supporters outside Leinster House this morning - presumably he's now reached the magic number of 20.

[BonnieShels]

Wahey!!!
What an awful day to do it. Glad he's now in.

[Eminence Grise]

Is it better for DN to have 20 Oireachtas members nominating him than four councils? Was talking about this with a friend recently. Most of DN's supporters are from the independent/left side of the Oireachtas, while the candidates nominated by councils can have the FF stigma thrown at them if its members voted for them. Support from Labour supporters for the government is dropping (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0721/1224301061553.html) which might cause problems for Michael D if its supporters decide to teach the party a lesson. Could DN pick up a dissatisfied Labour vote? The transfers are going to be very, very interesting this time.