2011 Presidential Election

[Macy]

here's the latest Irish Times poll:

Norris 25%
Mitchell 21%
Higgins 18%
Gallagher 13%
Davis 12%
O'Cuiv 11%
What was Norris in the last poll? I thought he was up in the mid to high 30's?

It'll be interesting to see whether he has the 20, as the report in today's times just says it's demonstration of who's supporting him. I guess we'll know in half an hour or so!


Support from Labour supporters for the government is dropping (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0721/1224301061553.html) which might cause problems for Michael D if its supporters decide to teach the party a lesson. Could DN pick up a dissatisfied Labour vote? The transfers are going to be very, very interesting this time.

But Michael D was at the 18%, the same as Labour in the opinion poll, and was actually the most transfer friendly.

[Eminence Grise]

So, like today's weather, DN's press conference turned out to be a damp squib. He has the support of 13 Oireachtas members, which IIRC is no advance on how he stood in early June. http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0721/president.html

It's time he got the finger out and secured the nomination, or gracefully withdrew. He's my preferred candidate, and if his campaign were better organised, it could aspire to be merely a shambles.

[culloty82]

With Sinn Féin and United Left reportedly standing Robert Ballagh, he's rapidly running out of options, either having to win over virtually all the Government Seanad XI, or the two more remote options of the rural Dáil Independents (Healy-Rae, Fleming, Mattie McGrath, Grealish) or independent support from Fianna Fáil. For the first time, it now looks more likely that he won't get a nomination.

[BonnieShels]

Ah jaysus! Not Robert Ballagh. Does that mean we'll have to listen to his insufferable whining til November.

Come on David....

[Kingdom]

I was sure Sinn Fein would run someone very high profile to contest as the next President will be marking the 100th anniversary of the Rising. Robert Ballagh? No chance.

[BonnieShels]

P O'Neill?

[Eminence Grise]

Norris secured Katherine Zappone and Fiach MacConghail's support today, but they intend to vote for Michael D. Takes him up to 15 now.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0722/norris.html

Bobby Ballagh? I think I hear the faint sound of scratching coming from a barrell looming in the distance.

[John83]

What was Norris in the last poll? I thought he was up in the mid to high 30's?
He had something like 21% in the previous poll I saw anyway. That was with a much more fragmented field though - lots of FF and FG candidates.

[Spudulika]

Isn't the undecided vote up over 23%? I wonder if they're Norris voters just waiting to cash in.

[TiocfaidhArmani]

With Sinn Féin and United Left reportedly standing Robert Ballagh, he's rapidly running out of options, either having to win over virtually all the Government Seanad XI, or the two more remote options of the rural Dáil Independents (Healy-Rae, Fleming, Mattie McGrath, Grealish) or independent support from Fianna Fáil. For the first time, it now looks more likely that he won't get a nomination.

I'll be voting for Ballagh, but I feel for Norris, he has support from the public, it's a crime if he doesn't get a nomination. I'd be tempted to vote for him just purely on the basis of 'positive discrimination'. I think it would be great to have a gay Protestant President. It would upset too many narrow minded bigots for us not to want it to happen!

[Macy]

I'll be voting for Ballagh, but I feel for Norris, he has support from the public, it's a crime if he doesn't get a nomination.
He knew the rules from the start, and despite the head start, he has made little progress with the councils. Too late in the day for him and his supporters to cry foul, imo. Maybe the ire should be directed at Martin and FF - they're not putting an official candidate*, keep banging on about "new politics", and have more than enough seats to push him over the line.

*this might change, as hard to see how they can have a shinner/ ula candidate on the paper, and them not even running anyone! :)

[culloty82]

Not exactly Norris' finest interview on Pat Kenny today, gave very vague, open-ended answers to listeners questions, and came across as rather arrogant "I'm fully confident I will be the ninth President of Ireland" - a little humility wouldn't go amiss in his canvassing.

[TiocfaidhArmani]

Not exactly Norris' finest interview on Pat Kenny today, gave very vague, open-ended answers to listeners questions, and came across as rather arrogant "I'm fully confident I will be the ninth President of Ireland" - a little humility wouldn't go amiss in his canvassing.

Especially when you're struggling to be even nominated. Ballagh is not running now as well and he's endorsed Norris.

[Eminence Grise]

Not exactly Norris' finest interview on Pat Kenny today, gave very vague, open-ended answers to listeners questions, and came across as rather arrogant "I'm fully confident I will be the ninth President of Ireland" - a little humility wouldn't go amiss in his canvassing.

Very true. It was particularly poor stuff. It was like he desperately wanted to avoid saying anything that might be used against him and in the end just wasted 15 valuable minutes. I can’t understand the hash he’s making of his communications, though I’d make a reasonably informed guess that it’s down to inexperience in his team.


He should try the experience card: the independent senator used to scrutinising bills, which Gallagher and Daly aren’t; play up the community and good causes work (might he have more here than Mitchell who's been Brussels-based for a while?); maybe get on the cultural Ireland bandwagon (the Joycean scholar versus the soft-spoken Galway poet). Whatever he does, he has to stop doing what he’s currently doing.


And he has to be more humble. But if he’s too humble, it might prevent him getting the last five nominees; too arrogant brings the same problem.

[Spudulika]

I was disappointed in his interview, mainly because he's become a politician. He waffled and sidestepped and patronised callers. PK was extremely good with him (as he was when the old interview broke), yet he's now sounding like the complete west brit that will get up people's noses. I use the term west brit cautiously but I can't think of any other way to say it. I would say sheltered D4 media luvvy, but don't want to be accused of sexual bias.

Before he began defending himself from the interview allegations, I was voting for him. His past record of fighting for good causes, many of them out of the public eye, and his contribution not just to literary and arts but to architecture, history and archaeology, are far and above what most other citizens can boast of. Yet he's just sounding awful and I don't see myself voting for him. If he can change this much in public in this short a time, what else will he do? I don't want to see Michael D. Higgins get in, the Aras isn't a retirement home and he's too much of a politico. Roll on this mornings PK!

[Macy]

yet he's now sounding like the complete west brit that will get up people's noses. I use the term west brit cautiously but I can't think of any other way to say it.
For what it's worth, one of the things that made me lose a lot of the time I used to have for him (long before he was even mentioned as a presidential candidate) was his completely pompous west brit attitude on a programme (probably a Scannal) on Nelsons Pillar.

[Spudulika]

For what it's worth, one of the things that made me lose a lot of the time I used to have for him (long before he was even mentioned as a presidential candidate) was his completely pompous west brit attitude on a programme (probably a Scannal) on Nelsons Pillar.

I'm not aware of that (the programme) though he has a tendency to think he's alot smarter than he is - though in a general sense he is extremely clever and able. Listening to Mary Davis it was nice to hear her mention the Ryan Report and her being in Moscow, she was here to push the Special Olympics plan for Russia (which is light years behind where it could or should be) and she was brilliant. She shamed the local Irish boys who figure they're lords of the universe because they'd been tapping into Irish eejits to buy stretches of bogland in neverland, which then turned out to be government owed and repossessed (the Quinns lost tens of millions in this type of scam). She pointed out that these guys who were all standing around looking prosperous, should put something back into Russian society that didn't involve gala dinners or balls, and meeting lots of willing young ladies (she said this). The then Ambassador tried to soften the blow, but couldn't help himself and mentioned how if Colin Farrell was involved to give of himself, surely other Irishmen could. Davis was excellent, she spoke well and todays interview was to the point, no waffle and clear. The only problem is her thinking that she'll be allowed to hit the road as a roving Ambassador - the civil servants and junket junkies in the Oireachtas will soon stop that!

[Macy]

Heard today's Q&A with Sean Gallagher. He can't handle the FF question at all and comes across as completely dishonest. He was on the FF NEC until earlier this year (regardless of when he last attended a meeting), and spoke on the campaign trail for several FFers in the General Election campaign. He's deluded if people can't see through this nonsense - you don't just role up and get on a NEC (of any party). His denials will probably be his undoing rather than the substance. Funniest thing was some FF texter saying he won't vote for him now for being a deserter!

[culloty82]

Brian Crowley (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0729/president.html) wants the FF nomination - fairly harmless, but hard to think of any characteristic that recommends him.

[Eminence Grise]

Norris' campaign hits the rocks: two of his backroom team quit over possible new revelations about his former partner.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0730/1224301621244.html

A couple of initial thoughts: firstly, he's better off without those team members as they'd run a very bad campaign from the start. If he continues to seek the nomination, new advisors might improve his communications and strategy. Or, his campaign is so damaged nobody could run the team. Secondly, bringing up the case of his former partner after 19 years suggests that somebody is doing a lot of digging into Norris's background.

Edit: meant to respond about Crowley. He's hugly popular in Munster, but seen on the conservative Catholic side of FF. With the anger after Cloyne he might have to downplay that part of his political profile, or position himself as a defender of Catholic, but not Church, values. Good luck with that one...

[Spudulika]

2 of DN's crew resigned, apparently over his ex being convicted for having relations with an underage Palestinian boy. I thought this was on the radar for a while now. Scary thing is this will be thrown back at DN for his pederasty views. I'd like to hope he got rid of the two as they've not done their job to date.

[Eminence Grise]

Scooped ya, Spud!:cool:

We're on the same wavelength in looking at this. Do you see a conspiracy, or just another candidate/party throwing dirt? I can't make up my mind.

I know one of the team, and was surprised to see them on board because I didn't think they had the experience needed. Proven right, sadly.

[Eminence Grise]

Elaine Byrne on Radio 1 has just said the that the nub of the issue is that Norris wrote to somebody (unknown at this point) on Seanad stationery seeking clemency for his former partner in the early 1990s. It seems, according to her, that the letters were leaked by the Israelis.



Tomorrow's papers will be very interesting.

[BonnieShels]

I couldn't believe the IT dragged up that case again. There must be something else due in tomorrows papers if this is what they are running with today. Radio 1 agog with it earlier.

Thankfully it is a sporty weekend so I can miss out on the bleeding hearts.

[Cuyahoga]

It looks like curtains for David Norris now. Even if he gets the 20 nominations i cant see him been elected as president. I feel sorry for him,there seems to be a campaign to damage him which is working.

[Macy]

Elaine Byrne on Radio 1 has just said the that the nub of the issue is that Norris wrote to somebody (unknown at this point) on Seanad stationery seeking clemency for his former partner in the early 1990s. It seems, according to her, that the letters were leaked by the Israelis.
Tomorrows sindo has a copy of the letter, apparently.

I don't think his campaign has been that great - he handled to whole magill thing poorly, and again this time he has ducked and dived so far rather than address the issue. He could've been out front today and gazumped the sindo. Pure speculation on my part, but the resignations could be because they looked for him to give them full disclosure of any other skeletons after the last time, and he left this buried.

[Spudulika]

Scooped ya, Spud!:cool:

We're on the same wavelength in looking at this. Do you see a conspiracy, or just another candidate/party throwing dirt? I can't make up my mind.

I know one of the team, and was surprised to see them on board because I didn't think they had the experience needed. Proven right, sadly.

And there was me thinking the time zones would help :-)

Something very strange in all of this. Agree that he needed to shed some dead weight, but also there is something moving. I wouldn't put it past the Israelis to leak something like this to put someone in their place - why not, if I were them, I would too. An openly gay President of Ireland would carry alot more wallop in bringing up injustices in their neck of the woods than a non-gay Gay.

I wonder is this all to do with FG and their US muckrakers? I can't say I'm sad for DN if he loses the chance to win the Presidency, he's better off as a campaigner and I still admire and like the man. He has done (as I've said on threads before) so much that has flown under the radar and I only wish other public reps were as decent as him.

[Macy]

If he hadn't wrote the letter defending someone in their 30's having sex with a 15 year old, there'd be nothing to expose. To me, unlike the previous controversy and based on what I've heard and read so far, this is a whole different ball game. There's no academic argument, no context issue. Even down to using headed notepaper and throwing in his committee roles. I don't think it's a gay issue - it'd be as bad if it what has been reported was wrote in support of a man who'd been busted for sex with a girl.

[osarusan]

If he hadn't wrote the letter defending someone in their 30's having sex with a 15 year old, there'd be nothing to expose. To me, unlike the previous controversy and based on what I've heard and read so far, this is a whole different ball game. There's no academic argument, no context issue. Even down to using headed notepaper and throwing in his committee roles. I don't think it's a gay issue - it'd be as bad if it what has been reported was wrote in support of a man who'd been busted for sex with a girl.

Just going by what I've read on here and on the IT online, I'd agree with all of this.

[Spudulika]

If he hadn't wrote the letter defending someone in their 30's having sex with a 15 year old, there'd be nothing to expose. To me, unlike the previous controversy and based on what I've heard and read so far, this is a whole different ball game. There's no academic argument, no context issue. Even down to using headed notepaper and throwing in his committee roles. I don't think it's a gay issue - it'd be as bad if it what has been reported was wrote in support of a man who'd been busted for sex with a girl.

Like Osarusan I agree, it's almost like something a Catholic Bishop would do.....emmm, Mr. Norris, didn't you.....

In fairness to DN, he might have been blinkered by love in this instance, the actions of his ex sound positively predatory and he fits the bill for a classic sex offender (involved in work with younger men etc) and it's eerily close to what DN himself propagated (pederasty) and if I'm not completely mistaken he brought up the North African/Arab experience of older males bringing younger males into the fold (sorry, that sounds horrible).

But I will defend him in this regard. DN sat in a room with CB's from a North Dublin school back in the late 80's and confronted them on abuse being carried out by lay teachers. The defence was - ah, he was a bit confused, but he's married now. When he pointed out that it wasn't confusion, nothing to do with being gay, they said that they were sending him away from teaching boys (as a compromise). Instead he'd be teaching in a Junior girls school up the road. When DN erupted by saying this is an abuser and the sex of the victim is irrelevant, the answer came back - sure at least this is more natural. DN did everything in his power to get the Gardai and authorities moving. If what he's supposed to have written is true, then it really contradicts his public and private stands.

I smell FG all over this.

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/john-drennan/john-drennan-it-has-been-many-peoples-fate-to-love-people-who-have-defects-2836076.html

[Cuyahoga]

I smell FG all over this.

If you think that there is something wrong with your sense of smell.

[Spudulika]

I smell FG all over this.

If you think that there is something wrong with your sense of smell.

Why? What is wrong?

[Eminence Grise]

Let’s build a conspiracy theory to test Spud’s nose...

What if:

FG are the only party that can lose the election – nobody else really has a chance. But if somehow it loses, the result can be spun as a popular referendum and rejection of FG policies. FG has to avoid that.


And:

Irish-Israeli relations have softened since the new government took office. Perhaps having Alan Shatter, well-respected for his support for Israel, at cabinet has contributed to this. The government response to the alleged sabotage of the MV Saoirse was muted at best; at least FF made some noise over commando raids and forged passports. So, a quid pro quo for Ireland’s softer stance might be the leaked documents.

Whatever about the first scenario, I don’t believe any of the second because it’s all too obviously mad, though, like Spud, I do think FG might know something about what’s happening.

[Macy]

Whatever about how pro-isreali certain Ministers clearly are, I don't see how Mitchell stands to be the main beneficiary. Also whilst FG are clearly in pole position, a run off such as this has a different dynamic rather than a general election - transfers much more important.

I love a conspiracy as much as anyone, but it's only natural that the past gets digged up when they're suddenly front and centre. Is it some conspiracy that people are digging up just how embedded Sean Gallagher is in FF?

[Eminence Grise]

Is it some conspiracy that people are digging up just how embedded Sean Gallagher is in FF?

No: that's a public service that deserves a medal!

[Spudulika]

David Norris had a very poor team around him, from what he's written EG knows at least one, and these chancers were not up to the task. They let him get ripped apart over the Magill interview and something tells me that that writers statements on radio - "there's more to come" was somehow said in the knowledge that this was bubbling through.

Politics being politics all is fair game. DN was never going to understand this. He came from a lovely sheltered fairyland of TCD and then the Seanaid, he's a hard worker and good person, but tried to see everyone as being the same as him.

I don't know about the Israel link, I read reports on how it was directed from there etc, though it's a step too far or even just doing down FG. FG are nasty, are in complete control and are continuing to run the country into the ground. I still believe we need a good uprising and take out most of the TD's and put some lead between their ears.

[Eminence Grise]

Was that Joe Jackson? I think he said he'd told the team of three (!) potential banana skins, at least some of which haven't materialised yet - and nobody dealt with them. That's just incompetence. I think you're right about sheltered academia and ivory towers (I'll give you the benefit of the doubt about calling it Fairyland in the circumstances!) - DN just doesn't get how dirty politics can be. Isn't there some wise old saying out there that the smaller the prize, the dirtier the fight to win it?

[Spudulika]

Yes! I heard it on PK Today or Morning Ireland, it was around the time it all began to filter out about the article.

Fairyland - sorry, that wasn't a shot at anything, besides, gay men aren't fairies, I will fight to reclaim that word for it's proper use! But no, sorry, that wasn't even an intended pun - I should have said "airy fairy land".

I believe FG will do anything to control all the levers of power, to eliminate all opposition (I'm waiting for Mary Davis to be slaughtered on something) and for the meeja to roll in behind the selected candidate. I heard, I think Phil Hogan, say on the radio that "we've never had a president", so you're dead right EG, the smaller the fight the dirtier it will be!

I do hope, all said, that DN will run for President, I do hope he'll have a quality team around him and that he will do the job I believe he can do for Ireland. But I remember a line from the Godfather 3, about an honest man, and that he hasn't long left for this world (about the murdered pope) - DN might not have long left for this race.

[Macy]

Presumably Norris picked his own team, so ultimately that's still his fault even if you do buy into that theory. We don't know what they advised - I don't think it'd be that outlandish to suggest that Norris could be pig headed about what he would and wouldn't do, especially for something he didn't think was fair game. It could be as I suggested earlier that they asked for full disclosure, and have just discovered they didn't get it. I'm not in the know about his team, maybe they are crap, maybe they're not, but they were still his pick.

I also don't buy this inexperienced nonsense - he's been in the seanad since 1987 ffs. Now maybe he wasn't in a dog fight in the trinners constituency, but I'm sure his fights on civil rights were hardly easy. If he's not experienced enough to handle the election, it has to raise questions about his suitability for office.

And finally, I don't buy this big bad Fg theory. FFS, no party that's supposedly this good at the dirty stuff would have such a, frankly, crap electoral record. One good performance, against the most despised Government in Irish history, in which they still couldn't get an overall majority, and some of you have them down as masters of this stuff! Beggars belief to be honest.

It is possible that Norris fooked things up himself, with poor choices both now in his campaign management and/or team, and past. Supposed dirty tricks or not, it's not like this latest revelation was made up, is it?

[TiocfaidhArmani]

I smell FG all over this.

If you think that there is something wrong with your sense of smell.

There's a whiff of Israel over this. Imo of course, just a theory.

[culloty82]

John Connolly (a pro-Israeli blogger, rather than the horror writer) claims that he was leaked the Nawi details by a member of Higgins' campaign team, which is not to say that either Labour HQ or Higgins himself provided any info. For what it's worth, this has reached a whole new level to the first controversy, in that this was entirely Norris's own disaster, due to total naivety and an inexperienced backroom team, who should have been prepping him for every worst-case-scenario type issue. He should have the good sense to cut his losses and make a dignified exit, but it doesn't appear that that's how it will play out.

[Spudulika]

If this is the case then it's bang goes the FG theory. Though I'd still have issues with his team over the interview issue from a few weeks back. He handled it in a very poor way and became more shrill with each passing moment. The media luvvies in D4 were lapping it up and trying to rescue one of their own, but in doing so were killing his campaign.

Should he quit the race for the park? No, but will he? Probably.

[Macy]

For what it's worth, this has reached a whole new level to the first controversy, in that this was entirely Norris's own disaster, due to total naivety and an inexperienced backroom team, who should have been prepping him for every worst-case-scenario type issue.
I repeat, why the assumption that this was mishandled by his team? The implication, from what I've heard at least, is that they resigned because he didn't tell them of this smoking gun. How could they have mishandled something they didn't know about, regardless of how inexperienced they may or may not be?

[Spudulika]

I repeat, why the assumption that this was mishandled by his team? The implication, from what I've heard at least, is that they resigned because he didn't tell them of this smoking gun. How could they have mishandled something they didn't know about, regardless of how inexperienced they may or may not be?

Macy, you have a valid point and their resignations seem to have come because of something passed on from a political rival to wipe out his campaign altogether. However I think the point culloty is making (which we'd all concur with) is that when the initial controversy broke - about the interview - whoever was advising him on how to handle it needed a good kicking. He dealt with the issue very badly and even when public support was still in his favour he kept ranting and attacking the "restaurant critic" - showing him in a very poor and nasty light. A good team would have told him to keep his gob shut.

This issue, the letters to Jerusalem, just went above and beyond, yet could still have been met head on and dealt with had he not lost a fair bit of public sympathy from the first event. It will be interesting to see what the 3rd bombshell will be - if the rumour is right.

[culloty82]

Finian McGrath, John Halligan and Thomas Pringle have all withdrawn their nominations - hard to see how Norris can gain 20 nominations now.

[BonnieShels]

Press conference this afternoon. This is the end...

[Spudulika]

Sounds like it. It's a shame and wrong to go out over something like this, though when you see what happened to Adi Roche and the allegations levelled against her....

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/faulty-judgment-and-antiisraeli-bias-leave-norris-unfit-for-aras-run-2836452.html

The other rather damaging link I'd rather not post, but is the headline of the lead article from the same paper today. Over the weekend they were polite and decent, the Indo shoed it's teeth today in a need to sell papers and advertising.

[Eminence Grise]

Norris officially pulls out of the race. On Newstalk now, but no links yet.

Edit: just up on RTE - http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0802/norrisd.html

[Spudulika]

Thanks EG, he's going on Drivetime tonight. I wonder will he resign his Seanaid seat?

[Eminence Grise]

I doubt it. I hope not. I suspect that for whoever leaked the info, it's job done.