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Stuttgart88
04/09/2023, 11:25 AM
I was thinking that actually - I hadn't noticed it took a deflection until Stutts mentioned it; you can't really see it from the main camera angle. But it's clear from the camera behind the goal - and it actually moves the ball that bit closer to him, so an easier save in theory. Surprised you see it that way as an ex-keeper tbh. His immediate reaction would have been not to dive at all as the shot was clearly going wide, then only on seeing the deflection would he have seen the need to dive. I don't think he could have been expected to get a hand on it, unlike goal 3 and the second (only imho) at home to Armenia.

Stuttgart88
04/09/2023, 11:29 AM
It certainly shouldn't be nil in any case. Don't know where you saw that?I didn't! I was just saying that I assumed a shot going wide would have an XG of zero!

Speaking of XG, I saw Celtic's XG stat late in the Rangers game yesterday and it was a very low number, despite several clear breakaway chances and square balls that just failed to get a touch. I just didn't recognise the XG number against the actual goals i'd have expected given the quality of chances.

pineapple stu
04/09/2023, 11:44 AM
I didn't! I was just saying that I assumed a shot going wide would have an XG of zero!
Ah, ok. The "shot going wide" bit isn't really relevant (as is my understanding). For evaluating keepers (PSxG), the shot either goes wide or it doesn't. In this case, it didn't go wide. For evaluating forwards (XG), it's the shot that's being evaluated, and how often you should score from where it's taken. So it might be 30% chance of scoring, 50% of a save, 20% of going wide - so an XG of 0.3.


Surprised you see it that way as an ex-keeper tbh. His immediate reaction would have been not to dive at all as the shot was clearly going wide, then only on seeing the deflection would he have seen the need to dive. I don't think he could have been expected to get a hand on it, unlike goal 3 and the second (only imho) at home to Armenia.
I'm not sure how far wide it was going - and the fact it wasn't given as an own goal suggests the initial shot may even have been on target. (Seeing as an own goal is generally given only when a defending player deflects a off-target shot into the net - as Crafty has mentioned before). Either way, it looks close enough to me that it's one you'd want to cover to be sure? In that case, if he's diving to cover his post, then the deflection towards him should help him.

Stuttgart88
04/09/2023, 12:43 PM
I think trusting years of watching and playing football trumps any algorithm imho. It looked to me like it was wide enough to for Bazunu's reflex reaction being to recognise that it was wide and the deflection was late enough to excuse him not getting down in time. They're the only two factors that matter here imho. I'm sure Baz's weight would have shifted to his left immediately the ball was hit but I think he'd have known immediately a dive wasn't necessary, not a fully committed one anyway. The deflection was absolutely key to that goal going in.

Thewhitepele
04/09/2023, 1:00 PM
Am I the only one that is now beginning to come to suspect that Travers may actually be the best of our three international goalkeepers? Looks better than Bazunu currently and who knows if we will ever know how good Kelleher is.

pineapple stu
04/09/2023, 1:00 PM
I think trusting years of watching and playing football trumps any algorithm imho.
But when you talk about 30/70 saves, isn't that just the exact same algorithm?

And if the shot was wide, why wasn't it given as an own goal? (And I don't know if it may yet get changed)

I'm not sure I'd have been comfortable letting that one go. But then I'm not a pro keeper and have less judgement in that regard. It also seems, looking at the replay from behind again, that after the deflection towards Bazunu, there's spin on the ball which takes it away from him again and that won't have helped.

Stuttgart88
04/09/2023, 2:16 PM
But when you talk about 30/70 saves, isn't that just the exact same algorithm?You reckon XG/PSXG is just a middle-aged bloke making a subjective judgment?!

But anyway, we're splitting hairs to a degree. I was surprisingly disappointed at the divergence between XG and my own XG across a couple of games at the weekend so I'm not sure I'll
ever be won over by it, and I was disappointed by Bazunu's performance even if we can go into the weeds analysing every movement.

Did anyone see Rice's winner against Man U yesterday? I was wondering if we'd be saying that was a should have saved or a might have saved. I think it was at least a missed opportunity for Onana to be a hero, but I kind of felt that despite the deflection it sat up well for a save.

pineapple stu
04/09/2023, 3:51 PM
You reckon XG/PSXG is just a middle-aged bloke making a subjective judgment?!
Nope - but I reckon it's the first iteration surely? The stone age effort to the high tech, but the same line of evolution.

Jolly Red Giant
04/09/2023, 8:39 PM
I really can't agree with much of this.

But they also have the problem that their keeper doesn't make many saves. You can see the save stats here (https://fbref.com/en/comps/10/Championship-Stats) - for a range of clubs, good defences and bad defences, attacking and defensive, counter-attack and possession. He's down at a 50% save rate - there's only one keeper in the league with a worse record. The average is about 70%. That's a big difference. Or take the PSxG - which is a measure of the keeper, not the defenders, because again it takes as the starting point that the shot has already come in - and he's on -3.3. That is, he's conceded three goals more than you would expect an average keeper to save.

Both those stats were similar last year (https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/2022-2023/keepers/2022-2023-Premier-League-Stats) (54% save rate, lowest in the league for players with more than I think 10 games, and conceded 16 goals more than expeccted), so you can't just overlook that part. They're way off where they need to be.


That just means he did better than McCarthy. Not a great marker.


A young keeper being less useful than a young defender is a fair point, but you can't keep lumping blame on the defence when the players go to clubs like Newcastle, PSV and Chelsea. Yes, there were issues, but again, it wasn't all on them.


I think you are. You dismiss the goalkeeping stats even though they take the defence into account. You absolve him of blame for any of the five goals against Sunderland even though pretty much all the rest of us are saying he should have stopped the third and probably on balance should have kept out one of the others (the 30/70s Stutts mentioned). McCarthy may well end up in the team soon unfortunately, given Bazunu's form this season is the same as the form that caused him to be dropped late last season.
1. I did not absolve him of blame for all five goals - go back to post #839 where I said he should have saved the fifth one - I also suggested that he could have done better for a couple of the others, but I don't think he would have saved them.

2. You may be right - Martin may put in McCarthy - but if he does it will be to protect Bazunu, not because of his form. And things will get worse for Southampton with McCarhy in goals if Martin doesn't sort out the team's defending (and giving silly balls away).

3. You accuse me (and others) of ignoring the stats - I would suggest to you that ignore everything but the stats. Statistics based on algorithms have their place - but soccer is not like American Football (or other sports where they actually demonstrate how good or bad a player is).

So far this season Bazunu has let in 12 goals in five games - lets look at them (the highlights of these games are all up on youtube) -

Sheff Wednesday - 2-1 - goal from a corner from the left - hit to the back post where a Wed player, relatively unchallenged, heads it back across the goalmouth - the striker, unchallenged hammers it from 10 yards out into the bottom left hand corner.

Norwich - 4-4 - and Bazunu made several good saves in this game.

first goal - winger goes down the right-wing with no Southampton player within 15 yards of him - has oceans of time to pick out the cross. Bazunu is positioned properly close to the near post - the ball is crossed to the back post and three Southampton defenders stand watching as a Norwich player jumps unhindered and heads into the net as Bazunu attempts to scramble across the goal.

second goal - shot from outside the box left of the circle - three Southampton defenders around the striker and none get any challenge in (Bednarek turns his back and actually steps out of the way of the ball) - the ball flies across in at the right-hand post past Bazunu at full-stretch.

third goal - a corner - Bazunu is correctly positioned. Four Southampton defenders ball watch as a Norwich player comes in from the 18yard line and has a free header that loops over an outstretched Bazunu into the top left corner.

disallowed goal - free kick from 25 yards. Bazunu is protecting the left side of the goal. Going to attribute some blame here - there are only two Southampton players in the wall - with two Norwich players behind them and then a gaggle of players to block Bazunu's view (he should have had four players in the wall) - Bazunu sees it late but goes full stretch to make a save pushing the ball out to the right of the goal - none of the Southampton players react - Bazunu scrambles to get back on his feet and forced the Norwich player to cross rather than shoot - where it is tapped in by Ashley Barnes with little or no challenge from the Southampton defenders (indeed one of the Norwich players gets in his way).

fourth goal - Norwich player out on the left-wing glides past two defenders and has an ocean of time to cross into the box from 35 yards out - only two players in the box - the ball goes past the Norwich player to the defender, who promptly passes it back to the striker who hammers the ball into the bottom left corner from 12 yards out.

Plymouth - 2-1 - the midfield and defence let a Plymouth player gallop down the right-wing and cross the ball without a challenge. The Southampton defenders stand looking as a Plymouth player gallops to the near post and wallops the ball into the net from 5 yards out. No hope of any goalie stopping it.

QPR - 2-1 - a shot from outside the box, with again no Southampton player closing down the strike - it goes through three players into the bottom right-hand corner with Bazunu at full stretch. Not a hope of saving it.

Sunderland - 0-5 - I have gone through these already. But a couple of quick comments - it doesn't make any difference if the deflected shot was going wide - a deflection will always throw off the goalkeeper - many don't even move when there is deflection and it trickles in beside them.

There is a pattern - Bazunu is taking up the correct positions - the defenders are not - several goals are shots from outside the box into the bottom corners and I suspect that opposition players are being told to shoot from distance because the defenders are making no effort to close down and the shooter has all the time in the world to set themselves up for the shot. Bazunu is not playing poorly - neither is he playing particularly well - but that is primarily down to the positions his defence is putting him in.

You can claim that Bazunu doesn't save as many shots as other goalkeepers - the problem is that the shots are out of his reach (and out of the reach of most other goalkeepers in the PL or Championship). The main problem is with the Southampton defence and midfield who don't track players, don't defend corners, don't make any attempt to block shots and are completely disorganised. Now - I would attribute some of the blame here to Bazunu (although most of it rests with the coaches) - I don't think Bazunu is vocal enough at ordering his defenders around and he doesn't f*ck them out of it when they f*ck-up. But think about a 21 year old goalkeeper challenging an experienced defender (Bednarek) with 150 PL games under his belt and 50 international caps. The 'if he is good enough, he is old enough' doesn't apply to goalies - they have far more responsibility for stopping goals than any other player on the pitch and younger goalkeepers have far more difficulty ordering older experienced defenders around and berating them when they are at fault.

I could go through every game played so far and critique the goalkeeper for every goal scored so far in the PL and Championship (I am not going to) - but I guarantee you that I will find plenty of mistakes for keepers that are not receiving anything like the same criticism that Bazunu is getting.

Now - despite everything - Southampton are currently 7th with 10 points from 5 games and are only 3 points behind leaders Preston. They do have two tough home games after the break - Leicester and Ipswich - but they are a decent team - and if Martin sorts out the defending they still have a good chance of being promoted (can't see Preston lasting and Ipswich have a small squad - so their biggest threats will be Leicester, Norwich and possibly Hull. If Martin doesn't address the defending then they will ship a load of goals but probably will still be floating around the play-off spots because they will score.

Diggs246
04/09/2023, 9:35 PM
1. I did not absolve him of blame for all five goals - go back to post #839 where I said he should have saved the fifth one - I also suggested that he could have done better for a couple of the others, but I don't think he would have saved them.

2. You may be right - Martin may put in McCarthy - but if he does it will be to protect Bazunu, not because of his form. And things will get worse for Southampton with McCarhy in goals if Martin doesn't sort out the team's defending (and giving silly balls away).

3. You accuse me (and others) of ignoring the stats - I would suggest to you that ignore everything but the stats. Statistics based on algorithms have their place - but soccer is not like American Football (or other sports where they actually demonstrate how good or bad a player is).

So far this season Bazunu has let in 12 goals in five games - lets look at them (the highlights of these games are all up on youtube) -

Sheff Wednesday - 2-1 - goal from a corner from the left - hit to the back post where a Wed player, relatively unchallenged, heads it back across the goalmouth - the striker, unchallenged hammers it from 10 yards out into the bottom left hand corner.

Norwich - 4-4 - and Bazunu made several good saves in this game.

first goal - winger goes down the right-wing with no Southampton player within 15 yards of him - has oceans of time to pick out the cross. Bazunu is positioned properly close to the near post - the ball is crossed to the back post and three Southampton defenders stand watching as a Norwich player jumps unhindered and heads into the net as Bazunu attempts to scramble across the goal.

second goal - shot from outside the box left of the circle - three Southampton defenders around the striker and none get any challenge in (Bednarek turns his back and actually steps out of the way of the ball) - the ball flies across in at the right-hand post past Bazunu at full-stretch.

third goal - a corner - Bazunu is correctly positioned. Four Southampton defenders ball watch as a Norwich player comes in from the 18yard line and has a free header that loops over an outstretched Bazunu into the top left corner.

disallowed goal - free kick from 25 yards. Bazunu is protecting the left side of the goal. Going to attribute some blame here - there are only two Southampton players in the wall - with two Norwich players behind them and then a gaggle of players to block Bazunu's view (he should have had four players in the wall) - Bazunu sees it late but goes full stretch to make a save pushing the ball out to the right of the goal - none of the Southampton players react - Bazunu scrambles to get back on his feet and forced the Norwich player to cross rather than shoot - where it is tapped in by Ashley Barnes with little or no challenge from the Southampton defenders (indeed one of the Norwich players gets in his way).

fourth goal - Norwich player out on the left-wing glides past two defenders and has an ocean of time to cross into the box from 35 yards out - only two players in the box - the ball goes past the Norwich player to the defender, who promptly passes it back to the striker who hammers the ball into the bottom left corner from 12 yards out.

Plymouth - 2-1 - the midfield and defence let a Plymouth player gallop down the right-wing and cross the ball without a challenge. The Southampton defenders stand looking as a Plymouth player gallops to the near post and wallops the ball into the net from 5 yards out. No hope of any goalie stopping it.

QPR - 2-1 - a shot from outside the box, with again no Southampton player closing down the strike - it goes through three players into the bottom right-hand corner with Bazunu at full stretch. Not a hope of saving it.

Sunderland - 0-5 - I have gone through these already. But a couple of quick comments - it doesn't make any difference if the deflected shot was going wide - a deflection will always throw off the goalkeeper - many don't even move when there is deflection and it trickles in beside them.

There is a pattern - Bazunu is taking up the correct positions - the defenders are not - several goals are shots from outside the box into the bottom corners and I suspect that opposition players are being told to shoot from distance because the defenders are making no effort to close down and the shooter has all the time in the world to set themselves up for the shot. Bazunu is not playing poorly - neither is he playing particularly well - but that is primarily down to the positions his defence is putting him in.

You can claim that Bazunu doesn't save as many shots as other goalkeepers - the problem is that the shots are out of his reach (and out of the reach of most other goalkeepers in the PL or Championship). The main problem is with the Southampton defence and midfield who don't track players, don't defend corners, don't make any attempt to block shots and are completely disorganised. Now - I would attribute some of the blame here to Bazunu (although most of it rests with the coaches) - I don't think Bazunu is vocal enough at ordering his defenders around and he doesn't f*ck them out of it when they f*ck-up. But think about a 21 year old goalkeeper challenging an experienced defender (Bednarek) with 150 PL games under his belt and 50 international caps. The 'if he is good enough, he is old enough' doesn't apply to goalies - they have far more responsibility for stopping goals than any other player on the pitch and younger goalkeepers have far more difficulty ordering older experienced defenders around and berating them when they are at fault.

I could go through every game played so far and critique the goalkeeper for every goal scored so far in the PL and Championship (I am not going to) - but I guarantee you that I will find plenty of mistakes for keepers that are not receiving anything like the same criticism that Bazunu is getting.

Now - despite everything - Southampton are currently 7th with 10 points from 5 games and are only 3 points behind leaders Preston. They do have two tough home games after the break - Leicester and Ipswich - but they are a decent team - and if Martin sorts out the defending they still have a good chance of being promoted (can't see Preston lasting and Ipswich have a small squad - so their biggest threats will be Leicester, Norwich and possibly Hull. If Martin doesn't address the defending then they will ship a load of goals but probably will still be floating around the play-off spots because they will score.

Gavin is this you?

pineapple stu
04/09/2023, 9:46 PM
He can't have made that many good saves against Norwich given four of the six shots on target went in. And I think the deflection does help - I'm not sure it was going wide (hence not being credited as an og), in which case he should have been going full length for it anyway, but the deflection took it back towards him.

And I will ignore you of ignoring the stats - because you openly did. Soccer isn't like American football, sure - but that doesn't mean that the stats are meaningless. And they show that he's conceding way more than would reasonably be expected even taking the defence into account. You can analyse the goals as you want and read into them what you want (were the shots out of reach of any PL goalkeeper? Really?), but I'm happy to go with the big data on this one. And as I started this discussion - your defence of Bazunu is very similar to the defence of Travers we heard after the 9-0 against Liverpool, when people were saying that it was all the defence's fault, and he couldn't be blamed for any of the goals really. It's just bias.

And he's saving way fewer shots than a wide variety of other keepers. That's the Southampton forum view of him too - gets beaten far too easily, far too often. This from guys who are watching him every week - they want him to make a couple of saves, to keep the side in a match. But it doesn't happen.

Demesne Lad
04/09/2023, 10:57 PM
The French and Dutch will have noted Bazunu's continuing vulnerability to long range shots.

Stuttgart88
05/09/2023, 8:44 AM
Damn this website. I actually dreamt of Bazunu last night. In some strange circumstance that I can't remember I was giving Shay Given a lift to Dublin airport and we were chatting about him.

seanfhear
05/09/2023, 8:53 AM
Damn this website. I actually dreamt of Bazunu last night. In some strange circumstance that I can't remember I was giving Shay Given a lift to Dublin airport and we were chatting about him.
Was Shay Given still small looking for a Goal-Keeper ? !

Stuttgart88
05/09/2023, 9:08 AM
Yes, I made him sit in the back.

ifk101
05/09/2023, 9:20 AM
Just on the second goal against Sunderland, he can see the attacker taking a strike, but I believe he is blinded by two defenders in seeing the actual contact with the ball and subsequently the direction/ trajectory of the shot. If so, he is reacting to the deflection not the initial shot. The deflection spins the ball away from his reach making the save difficult but maybe he could be more on his toes/ alert here, there is a slight foot adjustment between deflection and dive, and I think a top tier goalie saves that deflection. Perhaps his footwork is a broader work in progress for him, see the third goal, but overall, his reaction speed was a bit sluggish on the day. He can do better.

Eirambler
05/09/2023, 9:21 AM
The French and Dutch will have noted Bazunu's continuing vulnerability to long range shots.

They'll have noted Ireland's vulnerability to them in general and the apparently conscious decision by the manager not to take action to resolve the problem. Any team that does 10 minutes opposition analysis on us will have noted that.

Stuttgart88
05/09/2023, 11:20 AM
Just on the second goal against Sunderland, he can see the attacker taking a strike, but I believe he is blinded by two defenders in seeing the actual contact with the ball and subsequently the direction/ trajectory of the shot. If so, he is reacting to the deflection not the initial shot. The deflection spins the ball away from his reach making the save difficult but maybe he could be more on his toes/ alert here, there is a slight foot adjustment between deflection and dive, and I think a top tier goalie saves that deflection. Perhaps his footwork is a broader work in progress for him, see the third goal, but overall, his reaction speed was a bit sluggish on the day. He can do better.I think in general he's vulnerable those low daisy cutters. Maybe it's footwork or maybe it's his reach...

Diggs246
05/09/2023, 11:52 AM
I know he will start v France but if either of you were manager would you start Travers?

Stuttgart88
05/09/2023, 12:20 PM
No.

I stand by my view that all 3 are good but have their weaknesses. I think Bazunu is a very confident / mentally strong young lad and very capable. He was in a rut for his club when we played France and he had a very mature performance.

I think Kelleher is as vulnerable to shots from distance as Baz is and I think his positioning is questionable. Take away the shoot out glory I think his career highlights flatter him a bit. Signs of brilliance mixed with evidence of deficiencies too. But like Baz, a really confident young goalkeeper. For me though he has just had too few matches.

Travers looks lost at corners and crosses from free kicks. He's the most frustrating of the 3 imho, with his physique he should be more imposing.

Bazunu still for me, but I'm not without concerns.

Diggs246
05/09/2023, 12:35 PM
Interesting
I too would start Gav because his experience alone will be vital
But I wouldn't hesitate to drop him for the Dutch game if he is poor in Paris

Jolly Red Giant
05/09/2023, 10:16 PM
He can't have made that many good saves against Norwich given four of the six shots on target went in.
And here you go with the stats again - did you see the game?

There were 4/5 occasions where Norwich broke away and Bazunu blocked a pass/cross to a wide open attacker - and several other occasions when he forced attackers wide and cut out their attempts to get the ball across the box. He actually played very well in the Norwich game.


And I will ignore you of ignoring the stats - because you openly did. Soccer isn't like American football, sure - but that doesn't mean that the stats are meaningless. And they show that he's conceding way more than would reasonably be expected even taking the defence into account. You can analyse the goals as you want and read into them what you want (were the shots out of reach of any PL goalkeeper? Really?), but I'm happy to go with the big data on this one. And as I started this discussion - your defence of Bazunu is very similar to the defence of Travers we heard after the 9-0 against Liverpool, when people were saying that it was all the defence's fault, and he couldn't be blamed for any of the goals really. It's just bias.
1. I am not talking about Travers - who is a decent goalie - but nowhere close in ability to Bazunu is. If you go back to the 1970s Travers would have been a major upgrade over Mick Kearns and Paddy Roche but in the current situation he is the Irish number 3 for a reason.

2. I am not ignoring the stats - I am looking beyond the stats to see what the problem is - you refuse to do so. I challenge you to take your head out of the stats and go and look at the goal highlights of the five games from this season - it will take about you about 10 mins - and outline how many goals from the 12 conceded that he would have reasonably been expected to save - I have one - from the game against Sunderland.


And he's saving way fewer shots than a wide variety of other keepers. That's the Southampton forum view of him too - gets beaten far too easily, far too often. This from guys who are watching him every week - they want him to make a couple of saves, to keep the side in a match. But it doesn't happen.
Are you seriously suggesting that we should take note of a fans forum where the people posting there had their minds made up about Bazunu the day after he signed for the club - they wanted an experienced goalkeeper (they actually wanted Nick Pope who had just been relegated with Burnley) and all they could see what a kid who had played in League 1 the season before. They have been on his back ever since - he doesn't stop shots, his hands are too soft, he bats the ball into the path of oncoming attackers - yada, yada, yada.

Does he save fewer shots - of course he does - but a significant reason for that is the inability of the Southampton defenders to get out and make an effort to close down the striker and block the shots - the attacker has so much time to pick his spot that it is more difficult for Bazunu than it should be. If a defender pressures the attacker he has far less time and has to rush the shot, making it easier to save - and by the way - as others have pointed out - the Irish defence have the same problem because Kenny is a moron and it wouldn't, and hasn't, made any difference to who was in goal - Bazunu or Kelleher (or anyone else for that matter).

A goalkeeper can only do so much - and a young inexperienced goalkeeper (which Bazunu is - as is Kelleher) needs more help from his defence than a keeper with years of experience. Goalkeepers can lose confidence and when they do they second guess themselves and are slower to react to situations. Last season clearly impacted Bazunu and Selles was right to pull him - for no other reason than to protect him. The number one priority for Southampton this summer should have been to get a working defensive system in place and the players needed to implement it if necessary. As has been pointed out - in that respect Martin was the wrong man for the managers job - but one thing that Martin has made clear is that the defensive problems at Southampton are not down to Bazunu, but to the people in front of him - and I will take the word the team's coach over fans whining on a forum any day.

We will have to see how this season will pan out for Bazunu, but we are very fortunate to have two very good young goalkeepers who, if they continue to progress (and Kelleher needs games) will serve Ireland very well for the next 15/20 years.

pineapple stu
06/09/2023, 8:55 AM
1. I am not talking about Travers - who is a decent goalie - but nowhere close in ability to Bazunu is.
I'm not talking about Travers either - certainly not in that context anyway. I'm talking about his performance in the 9-0 against Liverpool, which posters on here (you can go back over his thread and see) defended by saying it was the defence's fault and he wasn't to blame for any of the goals. Same as your argument in defence of Bazunu's start to the season. That's the comparison.

It's why I'm wary of posters who say things like "stats are pretty much irrelevant". They're not. In fact, they're independent, without the green tint you inevitably get on forums like this. Because the stats explained why Bournemouth went straight out and bought Neto while posters here were blaming the Bournemouth defence. I don't pay much heed to the 0.01 level of accuracy claimed by xG or PSxG, but I do pay attention to a stat like -16 PSxG, which was Bazunu's stat last season.

You say that the Southampton defence was so terrible as to render stats irrelevant, and while they absolutely have their car crash moments, the reality is last year Southampton faced fewer shots on target than any team in the league (https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/2022-2023/2022-2023-Premier-League-Stats) bar United, Brighton, Arsenal, Newcastle and Man City - ie five of the top six. That's not the performance of a defence that was so terrible they render goalkeeping stats irrelevant. It's a huge statistical anomaly - as is Southampton's save rate (53%, against 61% for the next lowest and about 70% for the median)

Had Southampton fans made up their minds about Bazunu on the day he signed? Some probably had, others hadn't. But so what? He wouldn't be the first player ever to win fans around had he done so. The fact is he hasn't done so. The criticisms of weak goalkeeping (like the third against Sunderland, where a stronger hand should have kept the ball out), poor save rates (as shown), blunders (that header against was it Palace that went right through him? Or a couple of shots which went under him despite getting a full hand to them. And this season not helped by starting off with as bad a howler as you'll see in pre-season against Göztepe). So when you say "Are you seriously suggesting that we should take note of a fans forum?" - I'd say, yes, I am. I'll take into account that they're a ranty bunch, but these are the guys watching week-in-week-out. Their views should be taken into account.

Stuttgart88
06/09/2023, 11:38 AM
i still don't understand how 25 mins into the Sunderland game Sunderland, 2-0 up after 6 mins, were XG =0.33!

Jolly Red Giant
06/09/2023, 1:40 PM
I'm not talking about Travers either - certainly not in that context anyway. I'm talking about his performance in the 9-0 against Liverpool, which posters on here (you can go back over his thread and see) defended by saying it was the defence's fault and he wasn't to blame for any of the goals. Same as your argument in defence of Bazunu's start to the season. That's the comparison.
Only relevant if I had mentioned Travers - there is no comparison between the two goalies.


It's why I'm wary of posters who say things like "stats are pretty much irrelevant". They're not. In fact, they're independent, without the green tint you inevitably get on forums like this. Because the stats explained why Bournemouth went straight out and bought Neto while posters here were blaming the Bournemouth defence. I don't pay much heed to the 0.01 level of accuracy claimed by xG or PSxG, but I do pay attention to a stat like -16 PSxG, which was Bazunu's stat last season.
Now you are plucking a quote out of context - stats serve a purpose - but they are not the be all and end all of everything.


You say that the Southampton defence was so terrible as to render stats irrelevant, and while they absolutely have their car crash moments, the reality is last year Southampton faced fewer shots on target than any team in the league (https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/2022-2023/2022-2023-Premier-League-Stats) bar United, Brighton, Arsenal, Newcastle and Man City - ie five of the top six. That's not the performance of a defence that was so terrible they render goalkeeping stats irrelevant. It's a huge statistical anomaly - as is Southampton's save rate (53%, against 61% for the next lowest and about 70% for the median)
So now you are taking your stats and extrapolating from the stats that the Southampton defence wasn't that bad because they had fewer shots on target against them than all other teams apart from five of the top six - really is stretching the imagination. Southampton's defence was the worst in the PL last season - and has been one of the worst in the Championship so far this season.


Had Southampton fans made up their minds about Bazunu on the day he signed? Some probably had, others hadn't. But so what? He wouldn't be the first player ever to win fans around had he done so. The fact is he hasn't done so.
He hasn't done so because he hasn't had the chance - they were atrocious last season.


The criticisms of weak goalkeeping (like the third against Sunderland, where a stronger hand should have kept the ball out),
Bazunu was unsighted - and at full stretch - the ball bounced over his hand. Could he have done better - possibly - but the problem was caused by the defenders standing off the Sunderland player and allowing him to set up and pick his spot.


poor save rates (as shown), blunders (that header against was it Palace that went right through him? Or a couple of shots which went under him despite getting a full hand to them. And this season not helped by starting off with as bad a howler as you'll see in pre-season against Göztepe). So when you say "Are you seriously suggesting that we should take note of a fans forum?" - I'd say, yes, I am. I'll take into account that they're a ranty bunch, but these are the guys watching week-in-week-out. Their views should be taken into account.

Does Bazunu make mistakes - yes he does - as does every goalkeeper. It is far easier to pick holes in the play of a goalkeeper than any other player on the pitch. And Bazunu was poor last season - in a very poor Southampton team where he was basically abandoned by his defence.

So you want to take on board the ranting of fans who were on his back from the day he signed (because they wanted Nick Pope) - but you choose to ignore the comments of his manager who knows what he can do and who knows whose fault it is that the team is conceding goals.

I challenged you to go and take a look at goal highlights of the five games and twelve goals he has conceded this season and come back here and explain which goals he was at fault for letting in, that the defence didn't cause the problem in the first place. I suspect that you haven't done it - or if you have, you realise that apart from a couple where he might have done a bit better - most of the goals were not his fault - and you won't admit it.

Bazunu is a good goalkeeper - in my view the best goalkeeper in the Championship. He is still learning his craft and he will get better. But the reality is that a goalkeeper is only as good as his defence - and at the moment the Southampton defence is utter sh*te - and until Martin sorts it they will continue to ship goals.

I will repeat - we are very fortunate to have Bazunu and Kelleher (and Travers as well) as the Irish keepers and they will serve Ireland well over the next 15/20 years (and Cahill might come good as well). I am old enough to remember Ireland plucking goalies out of the old third division in England. But when you are playing a young 21 year old in goals then your defence needs to help him out - at international level as well as at club level. The Irish defenders need to shut down the long-range shots that keep coming in on the goalies, not stand around looking at one another (and that is on Stephen Kenny).

pineapple stu
06/09/2023, 2:40 PM
Only relevant if I had mentioned Travers - there is no comparison between the two goalies.
Who's making a comparison between the keepers? My original point was to liken the blanket defence of Bazunu to the blanket defence Travers got at the time of the 9-0. Which Bournemouth didn't agree with.


So now you are taking your stats and extrapolating from the stats that the Southampton defence wasn't that bad because they had fewer shots on target against them than all other teams apart from five of the top six - really is stretching the imagination.
Is it stretching the imagination? Why? Do bad defences give up relatively few chances?


He hasn't done so because he hasn't had the chance - they were atrocious last season.
On the contrary - that gives him lots of chances. As Stutts has said, there's been games where he could have come away having kept them in it, but he never did.


Bazunu was unsighted - and at full stretch - the ball bounced over his hand. Could he have done better - possibly - but the problem was caused by the defenders standing off the Sunderland player and allowing him to set up and pick his spot.
I'll just note pretty much every other poster here has said he should have done better for the third. You're in a big minority on that one.


So you want to take on board the ranting of fans who were on his back from the day he signed (because they wanted Nick Pope) - but you choose to ignore the comments of his manager who knows what he can do and who knows whose fault it is that the team is conceding goals.
I don't expect the Southampton manager to come out and slate his keeper to be fair. I'm never too worried what a manager says in a press conference because they're so choreographed to avoid saying anything controversial.


I challenged you to go and take a look at goal highlights of the five games and twelve goals he has conceded this season and come back here and explain which goals he was at fault for letting in, that the defence didn't cause the problem in the first place. I suspect that you haven't done it - or if you have, you realise that apart from a couple where he might have done a bit better - most of the goals were not his fault - and you won't admit it.
I've had a brief look and there's a fair few of the kind that you probably can't do much about, but there's one too many long-range drives and a couple where a stronger hand could lead to a better outcome. The defence may cause a problem in the first place but that doesn't mean Bazunu wasn't at fault too. And again, I'm happy to put a bit of faith here in the big data stats that have him as -3 PSxG this year, which is not a good stat and measures exactly what you're talking about there. It's far more neutral than an Irish person watching an Irish player and deciding everyone else is at fault.


Bazunu is a good goalkeeper - in my view the best goalkeeper in the Championship. He is still learning his craft and he will get better. But the reality is that a goalkeeper is only as good as his defence - and at the moment the Southampton defence is utter sh*te - and until Martin sorts it they will continue to ship goals.
The first part looks optimistic at present. The second is not in dispute. The third I fundamentally disagree with, for reasons given above. A keeper is part of a defence and while he would benefit from protection, he can (and in this case has) perform poorly on his own accord too.

Jolly Red Giant
06/09/2023, 6:30 PM
Who's making a comparison between the keepers? My original point was to liken the blanket defence of Bazunu to the blanket defence Travers got at the time of the 9-0. Which Bournemouth didn't agree with.
This is getting a bit tedious - but here goes

Did I make any comments about Travers on here - no

Did I make a blanket defence of Bazunu - no

What I have done is defend Bazunu from what I see as unfair criticism of a good, young (important word here) goalkeeper playing behind a bad defence.



Is it stretching the imagination? Why? Do bad defences give up relatively few chances?
Southampton got relegated last season with 25 points - 11 points from safety. They had 12 points after 14 games before they sacked Hassenhuttl and hired that idiot Jones - when things went completely south. The Southampton defence was panned as being atrociously bad, by commentators, by pundits and by their own fans. Furthermore - I have repeatedly stated that Bazunu was poor last season - hardly surprising - most keepers in relegated teams play poorly.

My comments throughout this thread are based on what has happened this season so far - 12 goals conceded so far - and almost all of them down to terrible defending from the Southampton defence and midfield.



On the contrary - that gives him lots of chances. As Stutts has said, there's been games where he could have come away having kept them in it, but he never did.
Again - not talking about last season - I am talking about his performance this season



I'll just note pretty much every other poster here has said he should have done better for the third. You're in a big minority on that one.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion - but all five goals resulted from very poor Southampton defending - the third goal because the defenders backed away from the shooter and let him pick his spot. I felt that Bazunu should have done better for the fifth goal - but there is zero reason to single out Bazunu as the problem. Southampton had 70% possession - let allowed 18 shots on goal - 10 of which were on target - none of that is Bazunu's fault.



I don't expect the Southampton manager to come out and slate his keeper to be fair. I'm never too worried what a manager says in a press conference because they're so choreographed to avoid saying anything controversial.
Clearly you didn't watch the video - Martin wasn't speaking at a press conference - he was speaking at a packed fans forum where he spent well over an hour answering questions - and he repeatedly defended Bazunu, saying that Bazunu bears no responsibility for the problems with the Southampton team - and then he slated the defence. So answer me this - if he wasn't going to say anything controversial - why did he defend Bazunu in front of a couple of hundred Southampton fans who want him out of the team - and at the same time put the blame of the problems firmly at the feet of the rest of the team?


I've had a brief look and there's a fair few of the kind that you probably can't do much about, but there's one too many long-range drives and a couple where a stronger hand could lead to a better outcome. The defence may cause a problem in the first place but that doesn't mean Bazunu wasn't at fault too. And again, I'm happy to put a bit of faith here in the big data stats that have him as -3 PSxG this year, which is not a good stat and measures exactly what you're talking about there. It's far more neutral than an Irish person watching an Irish player and deciding everyone else is at fault.
A brief look - it would take less than 10 mins to review all the goals - how long have you spent pouring over stats about Bazunu?

Too many long range shots - who is responsible for that - Bazunu or the defenders who didn't make any effort to close down the attacker?

Which goals would a 'stronger hand' have stopped?

Yes - the defence was the problem - now which goals was Bazunu at fault for and why?

And you go back to stats - because they are 'neutral' - stats are useful but they are limited in what they tell about any soccer player. But - this has nothing to do with an Irish fan watching an Irish player and deciding everyone else is at fault. I have zero problem criticising any player or manager who I think isn't up to the job and why? In five games this season Bazunu has been the victim of poor defending - Omobamidele, who I think is a really good footballer, has been very poor when he has played for Norwich.



The first part looks optimistic at present. The second is not in dispute. The third I fundamentally disagree with, for reasons given above. A keeper is part of a defence and while he would benefit from protection, he can (and in this case has) perform poorly on his own accord too.
The first part - which goalkeeper is better - and would perform better with Southampton's defence in front of him - I would have one possibility - maybe Begovic, purely because of years of experience as a PL goalie - and because he would be screaming at the defence for the entire game.

Fundamentally disagree - of course a goalkeeper can perform poorly all on his own - but when you put a young goalkeeper into a team the manager needs to help him out - and this is the case with a goalkeeper more than any other player on the pitch. Bazunu is a very good goalkeeper - and could be a great one - but keep putting him in bad situations for club and country and it will not help his development. Southampton have to fix their defence otherwise they will have a topsy turvy season and probably lose onut on a chance of promotion - and Bazunu will suffer in the process.

seanfhear
06/09/2023, 6:47 PM
Bazunu must be due a good game.

CraftyToePoke
06/09/2023, 10:03 PM
Keep giving it to him Jolly Red Giant. He has it coming for the best part of a generation on here at this stage. Dig deep now because minutae and hair splitting till people just go away to keep their sanity is his stock & trade.

tetsujin1979
07/09/2023, 8:24 AM
Play nicely children

pineapple stu
07/09/2023, 8:34 AM
I obviously can't respond to every point here, so just to pick a couple -

Did I make any comments about Travers on here - no
No - but I never said you did? I likened your defence of Bazunu (the defence's fault, the keeper couldn't have done much about the goals, not getting much protection, etc) to the defence of Travers we saw (from other posters, though I didn't think I needed to be that explicit) when Bournemouth lost 9-0 to Liverpool.


What I have done is defend Bazunu from what I see as unfair criticism of a good, young (important word here) goalkeeper playing behind a bad defence.
I think the "young" bit gets overemphasised tbh. Yes, he's 21 and learning the game, improving, etc (as I've regularly acknowledged and have no problems doing so again). But he's playing senior football; he has to be able to be judged against it.


Again - not talking about last season - I am talking about his performance this season
I mean, fair enough, but in judging a keeper I'm not sure why you'd leave out the entire of last season. But let's roll with it.


there is zero reason to single out Bazunu as the problem. Southampton had 70% possession - let allowed 18 shots on goal - 10 of which were on target - none of that is Bazunu's fault.
This doesn't make any sense. Of course it's not Bazunu's fault that the defence allows shots on target (we'll overlook your comment later about Begovic maybe organising his defence better; it's a minor point in the scheme of things. And the same to your later point about who's to blame for too many long-range shots.

He's not there to stop shots being taken; he's there to stop the ball going into the net. And he's not doing that. Those long-range shots, for example, weren't all 100% unstoppable.

So when you come to looking at the 12 goals and asking which he was at fault for - I think this is too vague a question really. If each of those shots is an 83% chance of a goal and he saves none, then he's not really at fault for any of them but he still should, on balance, have been expected to save two. (I know this is a confirmation bias to an extent as I'm ignoring the shots he saved; it's just for illustration). It might have taken great saves to stop two - but then that's what he's there for, isn't it? And it's a common criticism from (ranty) Southampton that he rarely seems to make a great save, to keep them in the game. And this is another advantage of stats over human observation - not just independence, but the accumulation of lots of little bits of data, which can lead to the idea that even though he's not necessarily at fault for any (except the third v Sunderland, let's say), he's still not done well to let them all in.

If you do want to have a look at the ones he may have been more likely to save - first off I think most people here feel he was at fault for the third against Sunderland; you can't get that much of a hand on the ball and not keep it out. I don't think it's a howler as originally suggested, but it's weak keeping. There's question marks around whether he could have done better for the second (my view) or the fifth (your view). He doesn't exactly make himself big for the opener against Norwich. And then there's others - like the fourth against Norwich and the fourth against Sunderland - which are brain farts from the defence leaving him hung out to dry.


Clearly you didn't watch the video
Nope - I didn't watch the video. In general, I don't care what managers say in public about a player; there's always some choreographing going on. Is Martin trying to get the fans to back the keeper? Is he trying to defend the club's €15m outlay? Is he an idiot? Is he right? I don't know - and as I say, don't really care. That's not just convenience here; I generally don't care what any manager has to say in public.

texidub
08/09/2023, 6:13 AM
One very good save aside, I thought Bazunu was a bit jittery last night.

Fixer82
08/09/2023, 8:36 AM
One very good save aside, I thought Bazunu was a bit jittery last night.

He seemed to drop a couple of balls after claiming them a couple of times. Nobody near him at the time thank God

Diggs246
08/09/2023, 8:38 AM
He made a balls of not calling for it on one corner and France actually should have scored. It was a terrible piece of goalkeeping

Fixer82
08/09/2023, 8:41 AM
He made a balls of not calling for it on one corner and France actually should have scored. It was a terrible piece of goalkeeping

It was hard to see who was at fault. Idah was at fault if Bazunu called for it. Bazunu was at fault if he didn't call for it

tetsujin1979
08/09/2023, 8:52 AM
He was better in the second half.

Diggs246
08/09/2023, 9:11 AM
It was hard to see who was at fault. Idah was at fault if Bazunu called for it. Bazunu was at fault if he didn't call for it
But surely if Gavin had called for it he would have slapped idah in the face when the ball was cleared
But he looked sheepish afterwards to me

Stuttgart88
08/09/2023, 9:12 AM
He made a balls of not calling for it on one corner and France actually should have scored. It was a terrible piece of goalkeepingDepends on the call but it looked to me like it was a bit impetuous by Idah.

Jolly Red Giant
08/09/2023, 9:21 AM
Bazunu had an up and down game - dropped the first cross (probably thinking about getting the ball out quickly for a counter attack) - but he handled the rest of the crosses well.

The incident with Idah - put the blame on Bazunu for that - and it goes back to him not being vocal enough. If he did call for the ball and Idah still headed it then Bazunu should have berated him.

I think he could have done better with the good save - it seems he tried to catch it and realised late that it had too much force - he should have been punching it out to the corner flag.

He got better as the game went on - and I was most impressed with how he stood up and didn't go to ground when Mbappe went through and slotted wide. Overall I thought he had a decent game in the context of the result.

Now - going back to the previous aspects of this discussion - nothing that Bazunu could have done for either goal. The first one demonstrates what happens when a good striker has an opportunity to set up and pick his spot. It was one of only a couple of times in the game when a French player had time to do that. Unlike the Southampton defence - the Irish players pressured anyone attempting to line up a shot on goal and blocked several of them. If it was the Southampton defence of this season then 4 or 5 of those shots would have caused serious trouble and probably a couple of goals. I think Duffy might have had an influence in what was happening - blocking shots is his forte - and I think he was probably yelling at the rest of the players to get tight on the shooters.

Jd2793
08/09/2023, 9:22 AM
that first goal was incredible but the shot was taken on because other teams know bazunu is shocking from range. he should be dropped

Jolly Red Giant
08/09/2023, 9:24 AM
that first goal was incredible but the shot was taken on because other teams know bazunu is shocking from range. he should be dropped
That's rubbish

placid casual
08/09/2023, 9:29 AM
Speaking as a Rovers,so unbelievably biased in favour of Gav,I thought he looked a little uncertain last night.
The young man(and he's incredibly young for an international keeper) is human,and the knocks and criticisms he's faced from Southampton supporters,who conveniently ignore the clown car ensemble back 4 in front of him,as well as the farcical management decisions,has had an effect on Gavs form.
He appears to be a strong, determined individual and I retain great hopes that he succeeds in his professional career.
He is also hampered in being born in an era severely lacking in quality international teammates.

Jd2793
08/09/2023, 9:30 AM
That's rubbish

its a fact teams know hes suspect from range. he isnt undroppable at all, there should definitely be a conversation around it.

Jolly Red Giant
08/09/2023, 9:36 AM
He's not there to stop shots being taken; he's there to stop the ball going into the net. And he's not doing that. Those long-range shots, for example, weren't all 100% unstoppable.
This season - with the possible exception of one - yes they were unstoppable.

A goalkeepers positioning is crucial - but even with perfect positioning he cannot cover the entire goals - it the shot from range is perfectly positioned into the bottom (or top) corner then there is nothing a goalkeeper can do about it - and when a striker is given the time they will hit their spot 9 times out of 10.


So when you come to looking at the 12 goals and asking which he was at fault for - I think this is too vague a question really. If each of those shots is an 83% chance of a goal and he saves none, then he's not really at fault for any of them but he still should, on balance, have been expected to save two. (I know this is a confirmation bias to an extent as I'm ignoring the shots he saved; it's just for illustration). It might have taken great saves to stop two - but then that's what he's there for, isn't it? And it's a common criticism from (ranty) Southampton that he rarely seems to make a great save, to keep them in the game. And this is another advantage of stats over human observation - not just independence, but the accumulation of lots of little bits of data, which can lead to the idea that even though he's not necessarily at fault for any (except the third v Sunderland, let's say), he's still not done well to let them all in.
yada yada - I went through each goal in detail - pick one and criticise my assessment.

You can only make great saves when you have an opportunity to make great saves - most keepers only make a handful a season - and Bazunu makes some very good saves - but that gets lost when your defence is shipping goals all over the place. Southampton fans are lumping Bazunu in with the rest of the defence and it is unwarranted.



Nope - I didn't watch the video. In general, I don't care what managers say in public about a player; there's always some choreographing going on. Is Martin trying to get the fans to back the keeper? Is he trying to defend the club's €15m outlay? Is he an idiot? Is he right? I don't know - and as I say, don't really care. That's not just convenience here; I generally don't care what any manager has to say in public.
So now you have gone from - a manager never says anything controversial in a press conference - to - you don't care what the manager says - and then try and come up with reasons why Martin defended Bazunu (while criticising the defenders) - and you still haven't watched the video. And by the way - the transfer fee was Ł10m with add-ons.

Go watch the video if you want to make a comment about why you think Martin argued that Bazunu is a good goalkeeper and if he was to pick a goalkeeper for his current team it would be Gavin Bazunu.

Jolly Red Giant
08/09/2023, 9:38 AM
its a fact teams know hes suspect from range. he isnt undroppable at all, there should definitely be a conversation around it.
In the Irish team Kelleher has been just as susceptible to shots from range - and at Southampton McCarthy has been even more susceptible to shots from range - why? - because the defenders don't close down the strikers (unlike last night when the Irish team did actually do what they were supposed to do apart from the first goal).

Jd2793
08/09/2023, 9:45 AM
you are a bit deranged. cant deal with any bazunu criticism, i'll leave Stu respond im out. Good luck

pineapple stu
08/09/2023, 9:51 AM
you are a bit deranged. cant deal with any bazunu criticism, i'll leave Stu respond im out. Good luck
Nah, I'm done too. I don't see any basis for the argument that the Southampton situation can be reduced to "Keeper good, defence bad", and I've made my points. But they're actually ignored in the last reply (the part starting "Yada yada", when then asks me to do what I actually did in my previous post, but was cut out of the reply, for example)

John83
08/09/2023, 9:53 AM
you are a bit deranged. cant deal with any bazunu criticism, i'll leave Stu respond im out. Good luck
Please refrain from personal remarks. That said, this thread can get a bit heated. Chill the **** out, everyone. He's a footballer, not the minister responsible for housing policy.

Stuttgart88
08/09/2023, 10:00 AM
Speaking of 'keepers, Maignan looks top notch.

CraftyToePoke
08/09/2023, 1:10 PM
Nah, I'm done too. I don't see any basis for the argument that the Southampton situation can be reduced to "Keeper good, defence bad", and I've made my points.

I can't believe what I am reading ;);) seldom seen board journeyman takes out daily nesting board heavy weight at his own game in A huge upset here on footdot. Pay per view popcorn level stuff & a new King.