Adam Idah F. Celtic b.2001

[Eirambler]

Not surprised at that at all. Kyogo is hit and miss, Idah is almost entirely miss, understandable that they would want another option for the second half of the season.

[pineapple stu]

Johnny Kenny straight back out on loan I guess?

[Eirambler]

Would imagine so, they might try to get him to another SPL club or a lower league club in England if there are any takers. If not, he'll go back to Rovers.

[Olé Olé]

Starts again v Ross County.

Former Republic of Irishman Ronan Hale the opposite striker.

Johnny Kenny makes bench for Celtic, with Scales.

[Olé Olé]

I think Idah is playing very well here. Usual caveats apply about opposition and the output. He has teed up some great chances to Hatate and Furuhashi.

He hasn't had any great chances but his touch and passing have been good and he's setting lads up.

[Olé Olé]

He wasn't great in second half. And maybe his first half was good but the early chance was better than I thought.

Went off shaking his head. Lame and limp tap of the hand for his replacement - Johnny Kenny.

[MylesNotMiley]

Idah was a little better today. He was involved in the opening goal with a lovely flick with McGregor.

Replaced by Kenny who showed much more energy and workrate to get into scoring opportunities. He had a great chance but the ball got caught under his feet and couldn't get much power on his shot. He also was involved in the 4th goal for McCowan.

[Eirambler]

It's saying something when he's being outshone by Johnny Kenny. Even if he scores a couple in the next few weeks that will still only be 1 in 12, 2 in 13 etc. - so it's going to be hard for him to rescue his season from here.

Just on Kenny - now that he has played for Celtic does that mean he can only either stay at Celtic or go on loan to Shamrock Rovers now? Or can he play for a third club in the same season? It depends what season they count his SR games as being part of I guess.

[Stuttgart88]

Idah was very good yesterday tbf. As Ole Ole said, some really nice touches and flicks. Lovely contribution to Celtic's opener. If it was your first time seeing him and with no skin in the game you'd think there was something about him. I think a couple of his better moments might have been called back for offside if they had been finished.

[elatedscum]

Just on Kenny - now that he has played for Celtic does that mean he can only either stay at Celtic or go on loan to Shamrock Rovers now? Or can he play for a third club in the same season? It depends what season they count his SR games as being part of I guess.

“As an exception to this rule, a player moving between two clubs belonging to associations with overlapping seasons (i.e. start of the season in summer/autumn as opposed to winter/spring) may be eligible to play in official matches for a third club during the relevant season, provided he has fully complied with his contractual obligations towards his previous clubs. Equally, the provisions relating to the registration periods (article 6) as well as to the minimum length of a contract (article 18 paragraph 2) must be respected”

Three!

[tetsujin1979]

Can Kenny play in the champions league?

[Acornvilla]

Can Kenny play in the champions league?
After the league phase, I think.

[Eirambler]

Reports today that Celtic are trying for Louis Barry. Could see him coming in ahead of Idah and Kenny straight away on current form.

[pineapple stu]

Starts again tonight, away to Dundee. Another underwhelming half though, with Dundee getting an equaliser shortly before halftime, so Rodgers may make changes earlier than he otherwise might

[Eirambler]

Off after an hour and yet another blank. If you were being extremely charitable you could say he assisted the second goal, but that wasn't what he was trying to do. Unsurprisingly looked utterly deflated walking off.

Judging by online comments the support base are turning on him now unfortunately. £9.5m is an awful lot of money for Celtic.

[pineapple stu]

13 touches in his hour on the pitch. Next lowest total for Celtic was 34. He really struggles to get involved far too often.

I'd say he sees his dream move going badly wrong at this stage. You feel for guys like that in fairness. But with every goalless week, he's further and further from being a legit option for us

[Olé Olé]

Hard to know what to say. He got his run of games. If his confidence is an issue then he just can't be relied upon. I always felt bad for him at Norwich and blamed injuries and confidence and stuttered game time. No injuries, plenty game time and confidence stunting output. Doesn't really work.

[Eirambler]

This is the thing. If the Celtic jersey is too big for him then he can't be trusted to play international football at present. The competition for the Ireland jersey up front is far stronger than what he's competing with at Celtic. Right now he'd be behind Ferguson, Szmodics, Cannon, Parrott and Robinson at least. I'd probably play Armstrong ahead of him as well as he'd at least make a nuisance of himself even if he wasn't scoring goals (Armstrong could be a player who's more useful at international level than club level).

The only thing that might keep Idah in the next Ireland squad is injuries as we have a few forwards currently out of action.

[Stuttgart88]

Funny thing is, Celtic were markedly worse after he went off. Causation vs. correlation and all that....

The breakaway in the first half would have been a wonderful goal. He busted a gut to make up ground and Kyogo played a lovely ball in. The keeper did really well and left Idah with (I think) little option but to try to get a delicate touch to lift it over him. I think a firm touch - the easy option - would have been smothered by the keeper. It's not easy to sprint and then get a soft touch but it's definitely a big chance missed - and would have won the game I'd say. Bernardo's miss was poor too.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Funny thing is, Celtic were markedly worse after he went off. Causation vs. correlation and all that....

The breakaway in the first half would have been a wonderful goal. He busted a gut to make up ground and Kyogo played a lovely ball in. The keeper did really well and left Idah with (I think) little option but to try to get a delicate touch to lift it over him. I think a firm touch - the easy option - would have been smothered by the keeper. It's not easy to sprint and then get a soft touch but it's definitely a big chance missed - and would have won the game I'd say. Bernardo's miss was poor too.
Idah does a lot of donkey work for Celtic that doesn't get him in a position to score - and he doesn't get enough credit for it. It can be seen when he is not on the pitch.

[Olé Olé]

I don't disagree with these points regarding his all around game. He definitely offers something - I thought he had a very good first half Saturday v Ross County. But that good first half was impacted by a failure to hit the target and missing a fairly straight forward chance when put through.

He is a very good focal point. His touch and his link up is good and it is improving - albeit, he has shown flashes in games for Ireland.

[pineapple stu]

Big feature on the BBC site (https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/c20kxn601kyo) today on how he's not really performing. Fairly unusual sort of article I think.

[Eirambler]

Would say that's fairly standard fare for Scottish football coverage to be honest. Idah's fee is huge by Scottish standards, so there will inevitably be scrutiny when he goes almost two months without scoring a goal. Given the advantages Celtic strikers have over strikers at almost any other club in Britain (better players in a better team getting more chances against particularly weak opposition by comparison) he should be banging them in.

[joey B]

Finally got a bit of luck !

[Buckett]

There's no way he's claiming that!

[rebelmusic]

There's no way he's claiming that!

I'll say this, thank God that it would have been a penalty if it didn't go in so his confidence has that to fall back on. Delighted for him regardless!

[Olé Olé]

Incredibly lucky it goes in but the run was good and strong and he let the ball run across his body. Only way to finish first time was the way he did and hope the keeper doesn't put his leg out - but he did. Otherwise a touch to go around the keeper but might have ended badly.

Either way, he gets an assist for the goal. And I don't think he even saw how it went in but got the release and relief when he went to celebrate with the fans and teammates.

I'm about to say "well that is the confidence mended" but he really needs to find a way around those goalless streaks. It has happened too much.

[Eirambler]

Ah here... he's claiming it and I get why given his lack of form, confidence and standing with the support - but after a good initial run he fluffed the one on one and got lucky with the defender knocking it in for him.

On the BBC highlights programme they're literally laughing at him trying to claim the goal in his interview afterwards and I can understand why. The stats will show he's goalless in 14 games now, so hopefully he can at least convince himself that his "goal" is the turning point for him. But he still needs to start actually scoring goals himself from those kind of chances.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Ah here... he's claiming it and I get why given his lack of form, confidence and standing with the support - but after a good initial run he fluffed the one on one and got lucky with the defender knocking it in for him.

On the BBC highlights programme they're literally laughing at him trying to claim the goal in his interview afterwards and I can understand why. The stats will show he's goalless in 14 games now, so hopefully he can at least convince himself that his "goal" is the turning point for him. But he still needs to start actually scoring goals himself from those kind of chances.
I think you are doing him a bit of disservice - he did everything pretty much right with the exception of actually putting the ball in the net and in situations like that you need the bit of luck with the bounce of the ball (which he didn't get with the shot but did with the rebound). Irrespective of whether he actually scored the goal or not - he was responsible for it - and he has now been the key figure in scoring two crucial goals for Celtic in the past few months. Last night's goal guarantees Celtic a minimum of £1m bonus as well as a further £800K for improving the league position. It is still possible for Celtic get get seeded for the knockout which would significantly improve their chances of progressing and getting to the last 16 is worth £11m. Idah repaid a nice chunk of the transfer fee last night.

Now - none of this takes away from his lack of goals - but Idah was and never will be a prolific goalscorer. His best attributes are the rest of the stuff he does, when he has the motivation he gets through a tremendous amount of donkey work - and it is consistency in that department that I think is more important than scoring a stack full of goals from his perspective.

[Stuttgart88]

Very unfair to say he fluffed it. He took the pass well, used his strength to get ahead of the defender and keep his balance, and got a good shot away. I've looked at replays and I think the keeper did exceptionally well, his positioning and anticipation were superb. Idah had no space to try to round him and very limited room to put the ball anywhere that wouldn't be saved. I think Idah deserves credit, and the luck he got.

Back to this old chestnut: what was the post shot XG? If it's high I'll lose all faith in that metric :). Looking at the replays the keeper made himself the favourite in the situation imho.

[Eirambler]

I think you are doing him a bit of disservice - he did everything pretty much right with the exception of actually putting the ball in the net and in situations like that you need the bit of luck with the bounce of the ball (which he didn't get with the shot but did with the rebound). Irrespective of whether he actually scored the goal or not - he was responsible for it - and he has now been the key figure in scoring two crucial goals for Celtic in the past few months. Last night's goal guarantees Celtic a minimum of £1m bonus as well as a further £800K for improving the league position. It is still possible for Celtic get get seeded for the knockout which would significantly improve their chances of progressing and getting to the last 16 is worth £11m. Idah repaid a nice chunk of the transfer fee last night.

Now - none of this takes away from his lack of goals - but Idah was and never will be a prolific goalscorer. His best attributes are the rest of the stuff he does, when he has the motivation he gets through a tremendous amount of donkey work - and it is consistency in that department that I think is more important than scoring a stack full of goals from his perspective.

In fairness "putting the ball in the net" is the number one objective for a centre forward.

I don't know about the xG (or particularly care because I think it's a ridiculous "stat") but for me that needed to go through the keepers legs.

[Olé Olé]

Very unfair to say he fluffed it. He took the pass well, used his strength to get ahead of the defender and keep his balance, and got a good shot away. I've looked at replays and I think the keeper did exceptionally well, his positioning and anticipation were superb. Idah had no space to try to round him and very limited room to put the ball anywhere that wouldn't be saved. I think Idah deserves credit, and the luck he got.

Back to this old chestnut: what was the post shot XG? If it's high I'll lose all faith in that metric :). Looking at the replays the keeper made himself the favourite in the situation imho.

Agreed. The keeper made the goal almost impossible. But they got one and, in reality, Idah made it happen.

[tetsujin1979]

Very unfair to say he fluffed it. He took the pass well, used his strength to get ahead of the defender and keep his balance, and got a good shot away. I've looked at replays and I think the keeper did exceptionally well, his positioning and anticipation were superb. Idah had no space to try to round him and very limited room to put the ball anywhere that wouldn't be saved. I think Idah deserves credit, and the luck he got.

Back to this old chestnut: what was the post shot XG? If it's high I'll lose all faith in that metric :). Looking at the replays the keeper made himself the favourite in the situation imho.
Sofascore is saying 0.16. At least I think that's what it says
https://www.sofascore.com/football/match/young-boys-celtic/cXsVY#id:12764178,tab:statistics

<EDIT>
Sorry, 0.16 is for the shot that was saved, the shot off the post at 81m had an xG of 0.02

[Stuttgart88]

Again last night Celtic, mainly via Maeda, got behind the full back and sent in dangerous low crosses that the striker failed to get on the end of. Kyogo the culprit. When he did connect he was carelessly offside. I was thinking at the time that if Idah had done everything Kyogo did or didn't do in the first half he'd be slaughtered. That's what having credit in the bank does.

[Stuttgart88]

Sofascore is saying 0.16. At least I think that's what it says
https://www.sofascore.com/football/match/young-boys-celtic/cXsVY#id:12764178,tab:statistics

<EDIT>
Sorry, 0.16 is for the shot that was saved, the shot off the post at 81m had an xG of 0.02So, does that confirm that the keeper had done his job well in advance of the shot, or does it say it was a rubbish shot?!

[seanfhear]

Again last night Celtic, mainly via Maeda, got behind the full back and sent in dangerous low crosses that the striker failed to get on the end of. Kyogo the culprit. When he did connect he was carelessly offside. I was thinking at the time that if Idah had done everything Kyogo did or didn't do in the first half he'd be slaughtered. That's what having credit in the bank does.
Kyogo was caught off-side poorly a few times ~ ~ Like a guy that knows, he doesn't have the pace against those defenders !

Fair dues to Idah for the goal ~ He kept himself on-side !

[Eirambler]

Well, Kyogo is on his way now, heading to Rennes. Would have to assume Adam will have some new competition for the centre forward spot by the end of the month.

Wondering if an Evan Ferguson loan might be a consideration.

[seanfhear]

Well, Kyogo is on his way now, heading to Rennes. Would have to assume Adam will have some new competition for the centre forward spot by the end of the month.

Wondering if an Evan Ferguson loan might be a consideration.That would be a great opportunity for Evan Ferguson.

[pineapple stu]

So, does that confirm that the keeper had done his job well in advance of the shot, or does it say it was a rubbish shot?!
fbref says 0.31 xG and 0.42 PSxG (https://fbref.com/en/matches/893e3e53/Celtic-Young-Boys-January-22-2025-Champions-League).

So a decent chance (0.31 is reasonably high, although still far from a sure thing), Idah did ok out of it (PSxG higher than xG), and a good save from the keeper (from a 0.42 shot - that is, the keeper was still favourite). Sounds reasonable.

And as always, you don't have to believe those right down to the second decimal place.

[elatedscum]

fbref says 0.31 xG and 0.42 PSxG (https://fbref.com/en/matches/893e3e53/Celtic-Young-Boys-January-22-2025-Champions-League).

So a decent chance (0.31 is reasonably high, although still far from a sure thing), Idah did ok out of it (PSxG higher than xG), and a good save from the keeper (from a 0.42 shot - that is, the keeper was still favourite). Sounds reasonable.

And as always, you don't have to believe those right down to the second decimal place.

Stu, ow can sofascore and fbref have such wildly different numbers? Means at least one set of numbers is a total farce

[tetsujin1979]

So, does that confirm that the keeper had done his job well in advance of the shot, or does it say it was a rubbish shot?!
It's more a description of how hard it is to score from the situation Idah was in.
My understanding of xG is that it's the chance of a shot from that situation resulting in a goal, going from zero - no player in this situation has ever scored - to one - every single shot that's ever been taken in this situation has gone in.
Idah's first shot had an xG of 0.02 - so if 100 players were in the same situation, standing in that spot on the pitch, shooting with the same foot, with the opposition goalkeeper in the same position, it would result in two goals (2/100=0.02)


Stu, ow can sofascore and fbref have such wildly different numbers? Means at least one set of numbers is a total farce
Could be working off different data sets, or have a different method of calculating the value.
SkySports have similar numbers to sofascore for Idah's two shots - 0.025 and 0.161
https://www.skysports.com/football/celtic-vs-bsc-young-boys-bern/report/521717
(scroll down to xG race - Idah's shots are the last two dots on the graph)

[pineapple stu]

Stu, ow can sofascore and fbref have such wildly different numbers? Means at least one set of numbers is a total farce
Don't know tbh. I think there is a complication in instances like this where there's a rebound - that is, two shots in one, but the xG can't be the sum of the two shots because it wasn't possible for the two shots to go in. It could be one model is more refined than the other and is adjusting for that. It may be that 0.16 (per Sky Sports) is the xG of Idah's shot, but 0.31 (per fbref) is the xG of the chance as a whole, which includes the rebound. I can see other shots are more evenly scored - so Darian Males had shots on 62 and 63 which were scored 0.09/0.29 on fbref and 0.086/0.278 on Sky Sports, while the penalty is scored 0.79 by both, and Kuhn's early chance is 0.204 on Sky Sports v 0.22 on fbref.

But I won't pretend to be an expert on it of course.

[Stuttgart88]

There are a couple of books about it, though I won't be recommending either for my wife's book club. Here (https://www.amazon.co.uk/xGenius-Expected-Science-Winning-Football/dp/1399411551/ref=asc_df_1399411551?mcid=46be2a20ed6f337487ec07e e9854f639&th=1&psc=1&hvocijid=4458368314231963940-1399411551-&hvexpln=74&tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=696285193871&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=4458368314231963940&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9045997&hvtargid=pla-2281435177898&psc=1&gad_source=1) and here (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Expected-Goals-Philosophy-Game-Changing-Analysing/dp/108988318).

But regardless of the number of decimal places and the actual methodology, the numbers suggest "fluffed" would be a particularly unfair assessment of how Idah fared in the situation he was in?

[pineapple stu]

I read this one (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Expected-Goals-conquered-football-changed/dp/0008484074/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&dib_tag=se&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.OrxqZXEwsCw_ldZmdfa_iAi-zOgP_z7ahjPVEjfRkuClZdeFipVzS74kumPyq25525S_yXKK8t 42jHzc6nffZ7xM4EuAHSnJvoUIkePmER6hJkdbzgsZijKsz-lJ4SALIRmLomiBP38f4NGy1JrZhd_7ee8rafrGJB7QmnjcrrH2-qVOq_0ydG4z6mvWZ34C5oeoKBZuD03Ty0jnWDuy5_fAfrF_nF1 058L-ZlCrh88.lmdP8pdNoRFQILzDxms3402H5GmuEuGql36-tw5_HIM&qid=1737644485&sr=1-1) by Rory Smith recently. Same idea - and yeah, it was a little bit stodgy, a lot of people in third-world countries spending hours tagging a single game for reasonable pay (for the region; cheap by Western standards of course) - and a lot of secrecy around what exactly was being captured, which rather took away from the point of reading the book.

But there's a lot of money being spent in the area, there's data analysts being hired by top clubs for a reason, and there's data clubs (like Brighton, as mentioned on the Cashin thread) who seem to be doing quite well out of it. I don't think it can be dismissed as quackery.

And a football optics basis and FWIW, I agree with you it's a bit unfair to say Idah fluffed his chance. Though he clearly got a bit lucky with the rebound, but that's football.

[CraftyToePoke]

The stats are interesting, and it wasn't a tap in of course, but if that ball spins away into space off the keeper or if the defender manages to hack it away or even get himself out of the way, the whole mood music is different today about that chance lads.

But it didn't, and I am delighted for Idah, a CL winning contribution in a pressure game, late on in what would have been, again, very different coverage today had they not won.

So moving on, this can't be a blip or buying a bit of pressure space, he needs to score again soon and then again after that. He can't relax on this.

[pineapple stu]

100% on all of that.

[elatedscum]

there's a lot of money being spent in the area, there's data analysts being hired by top clubs for a reason, and there's data clubs (like Brighton, as mentioned on the Cashin thread) who seem to be doing quite well out of it. I don't think it can be dismissed as quackery.

My understanding is there’s a huge difference between the data clubs have and the data that is available to the public. And that the majority of premier league clubs pay for proprietary data systems or have built their own.

I feel to a certain extent they’ve got HD cameras capturing every movement and we’re here arguing with packs of crayons arguing over what it all means

[samhaydenjr]

I'm going to call it a "forced own goal" as his run had the defenders scrambling back and his shot was good enough at close quarters to force the keeper to kick it into the path of the retreating defender. And it turned a draw into a victory, to earn Celtic an extra €1,400,000, plus sealed a spot in the knockout round play-off, adding €1,000,000 to the Celtic Kitty. 60,000 at Parkhead for the home tie should add a few million more. And Celtic fans were beginning to wonder if Idah was worth the money.

[tetsujin1979]

Some reports are saying Celtic will clear £34m from the champions League

[pineapple stu]

Enough money to buy a replacement for Idah :p