Group D - opponent watch!

[Kingdom]

The only solace I have from the Poland result there, is that if teams are going to get anything from Germany, it was always going to be from the home games. If we get nothing on Tuesday, it will be the exact same Scotland got, and I would put money down, it'll be the same that Poland will get. Poland's result tonight means we either have to win the mini-group between us, or we beat Germany at home

In the mini-group between us, Scotland, and Poland, the result of the game between Scotland and Poland is going to be more important than Poland's win tonight. I'd take a draw between the two of them right now.

[back of the net]

BBC match report suggests Germany had loads of possession, loads of shots, 8 on target. It doesn't sound like they were roundly beaten. Anyone have their own synopsis? I didn't see it.


Saw it ---- Germany were on top in the first half - poland started it with a bit of fire in their belly, but once Germany got to grips with the game they had poland on the back foot for most of the first half

Second half, and the goals ...1st due to an error by neuer
Poland then just played on the counter

Final Attempts on target - Poland : 4 Germany 24 with the germans having 62% possesion

Germany didnt deserve to lose it but somehow did

As great a result as it was for poland .....they will change their tactics when they host scotland and ireland and they should open up more as neither of us have the threat of germany , but despite polands win tonight, i am still confident we will get something over there as poland looked quite erratic at times

Scotland were decidely blunt today but equally i wont be surprised if they come away from warsaw with a point on tuesday night

[BonnieShels]

Unbridled sycophancy.
The sensible thing to do when driving past Dortmund is to make sure the windows are shut.

Unbridled?

I think he held back. Wo boy!

They're no Basle I'll give you that.

[BonnieShels]

Are we hoping for Scottish win on Tuesday now?

This group is gonna melt my face.

[Stuttgart88]

A draw might be best?

Either way we're going to need to beat both Poland and Scotland at least once I think. I'd say we'll need at 4 points from each.

[DeLorean]

Yeah, I said anything but a Scottish win before the game last night but the Polish win has changed that completely. Anything but a Polish win is now best, a draw still ideal.

There's no doubt that result was a set back but the most important thing for us is to take at least four points from the Poland games now. That will cancel out their three 'bonus' points last night and put us in the ascendency against them due to the head to head, everything else being equal and assuming we don't beat Germany ourselves. There'll obviously be more twists and turns to stop that being a defining factor but it's likely to be a minimum requirement after yesterday. It's a little bit unnerving talking about needing four points from our group rivals already though, given how inadequate we've been in that regard in recent times. Looking at Scotland's line up, I think we've got a wealth of talent more than they do. If we can't at least finish above them then we really don't deserve anything. I think we will though and at least that would be a playoff to fall back on.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Fecking Polaks, how did they win that by two...grrr.

Still need a draw Tues. Germany to exact a terrible 'revenge'...

[DeLorean]

We don't seem to register in Robert Lewandowski's Group D opponent watch...

Irish Examiner (http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/soccer/lewandowski-sees-scots-not-irish-as-main-rivals-for-runners-up-spot-291235.html)

Lost in translation I suspect.

[tricky_colour]

Klose is Polish, if Paul McGrath is English, or if Ronan O'Gara is American.


I kind of meant in the same way Podolski is Polish, but I don't really know either's background. Just thought he qualified for them or something and that's what Tricky may or not have been thinking of.

Kloses mother played for a Polish national team, I think she is ethnically Polish (her maiden name Jez seem to be of polish origin), but he is ethnically German, I think the bit of Poland he was born in used to be part of Germany but it seems a bit complicated.


he stated that he and his wife speak Polish to their children at home,

That is pretty Polish!!

Anyhow what I am getting at is that even if the Polish connection is not very strong, the German team is so strong (or at least used to be)
that they might be willing to "do Poland a favour", dunno if they have an Irish connections though ;)

[jbyrne]

Germany to exact a terrible 'revenge'...


or maybe not...

[BonnieShels]

Thankfully not

[davidatrb]

What have I always said about Scotland's performances and results against big teams?

It really is absolutely disgraceful that we have come to accept, as a nation, getting hammered by teams like Germany and Spain as a mere formality when teams like Scotland can produce performances like this.

They have looked confident right from the start. We look like a team drained of any belief or bravado.

Interesting to see what happens in this group. I can see Scotland, Poland and Germany all taking points off each other but I think it could get bowling shoe ugly for Ireland based on our performance today.

We got hammered by Portugal in June coincidentally and they are struggling to compete with teams like Albania, as they always do. They'll be wishing they had us instead of Albania in that group. That's the sad thing.

And what do you have to say now, after Scotland scraped a home win against Georgia. And Ireland got an away draw against Germany.

[Fergie's Son]

I think we need to take it a step at a time. Beat Scotland in November then Poland at home and we have every chance of topping the group!

[ArdeeBhoy]

or maybe not...


Thankfully not

Exactly, but we left it fecking late. And if they had, no-one would have been surprised before last night.
They seem to have a few problems just now.

In a way, hope they improve and win the group, because that helps our chances...

[BonnieShels]

The German improvement is only relevant when it comes to our results against Poland and Scotland.

Right now the group is in our own hands. And I want to win the group. Should we come a cropper against Polonia and Ecosse. At that point I'll start wishing for German wins.

[DeLorean]

Yeah that's a fair point BS, and the fixtures seem to be very accommodating with regards knowing what to hope for. Our next three games are against Scotland and Poland. Germany's next three are against Gibraltar and Georgia. It's surely safe to assume that Germany will pick up nine points from those games (you just never know for sure though, right AB?) so it just depends how we do ourselves. Whatever give us the best chance of finishing in the top two is what I'll be hoping for anyway, no point in getting too greedy.

[ArdeeBhoy]

If anyone thinks we can win this group, they're mad...especially on the basis of those first two performances.
We have to have a strategy to win games.
I really don't see one. The Alba/Polska matches can only see scope to add to our notable collection of draws. At best probably.

Germany can/will only improve, though lucky for them they have three 'easy' games next as Bonnie points out.

[BonnieShels]

If anyone thinks we can win this group, they're mad...especially on the basis of those first two performances.
We have to have a strategy to win games.
I really don't see one. The Alba/Polska matches can only see scope to add to our notable collection of draws. At best probably.

Germany can/will only improve, though lucky for them they have three 'easy' games next as Bonnie points out.


Right now we are joint top of the group. So we are in a position where we can win the group without relying on others. Germany are not. Rightly they are still favourites but at the same time why be negative at this remove.

It's hardly mad to think that we can get at least 4 points from Poland and Scotland. I think we'll be the Scots twice to be honest.

[elroy]

I heard Chris Coleman say in an interview the other night that 1.75 points were needed per game to get second place. Based on ten games that means we need 18 points. We have 7 thus far, surely another 3 in the bag with Gibralatar, so we need a total of 8 points from 4 home games and 2 away games. Simples.

From looking at 2012 qualifying the 18 points does seem a little low, might need closer to 20/21.

[DeLorean]

if anyone thinks we can win this group, they're mad

Credibility alert!!


we have no chance in either game v.germany. Get over it!


it's irrelevant...
Deutschland will win.

[ArdeeBhoy]

We were bloody lucky and you know it. Where's your credibility?
;)

[ArdeeBhoy]

Right now we are joint top of the group. So we are in a position where we can win the group without relying on others. Germany are not. Rightly they are still favourites but at the same time why be negative at this remove.

It's hardly mad to think that we can get at least 4 points from Poland and Scotland. I think we'll be the Scots twice to be honest.

We're not going to beat Scotland twice on recent evidence (or Polska, though more confident v.them, strangely).

How? With what?
Alan Rough to be recalled?

[Stuttgart88]

We were bloody lucky and you know it. Where's your credibility?
;)
Luck is an essential part of sport. Stuff happens. It was the complete lack of appreciation on your part that stuff might happen that I found strange.

The economist John Maynard Keynes pointed out that financial markets confuse risk with uncertainty. Risk is quantifiable. An actuary could probably have put a percentage figure at the 80 minute mark of Ireland equalising. It'd have been quite low. Uncertainty is the unknowable, wild sh1t, Donsld Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns. War breaking out, earthquakes, a Phil Jagielka half volley from 25 yards, a John O'Shea goal. Why is this important? Because markets make bets based on risk but they ignore uncertainty. That's why we have booms and crashes. I think AB also appreciates risk but ignores uncertainty.

Btw, I wasn't as impressed by Scotland in Poland as I was by them in Dortmund. I think their defence is suspect and we can defend better than the Poles did.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Aye. luck. But no-one on here forecast a last kick draw. They should at least be big enough to admit that.

And did mention the 'l' word in my first post-game post. But credit again to the team for making the circumstances to do so, but they really did cut it fine.
And v.Georgia...

[Stuttgart88]

I didn't forecaset a last minute equaliser but I did say that although on paper we should be beaten I have seen enough weird stuff happen in football to retain hope.

I wonder did you think we were simply unlucky against Austria at home, or like me, did you think we were the architects of our own downfall? Sure, there was some bad luck involved too. But look at Germany. In the last ten minutes they retreated, failed to deal with some pretty basic pressure and, quite frankly, looked a bit panicky. Even at the death I didn't see us scoring but I did think if there was another ten minutes we could. It just looked like that, just as it looked like we'd concede an equaliser to Austria. Having hit the post and missed other chances was history by the time the Austria game entered its final minutes, just as was the case on Tuesday.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Maybe an analogy there, but Germany playing 'cr*p' is generally better than ours. Though see the wider point.

[Junior]

Lads before any more posts can we at least determine how many teams we have in our Group - I'm beginning to fear we wont get through all the qualification games before the big event in France 2016 starts....

When are we playing? Ecosse, Alba, Scotia, Caledonia, Sweatysockland, Polska, Polonia, The Peoples Republic..........

[BonnieShels]

We're not going to beat Scotland twice on recent evidence (or Polska, though more confident v.them, strangely).

How? With what?
Alan Rough to be recalled?

Why aren't we?

We're better all over the park than them give or take. We are substantially better defensively and as we saw in the Georgia and Germany games, our never say die attitude seems to be coming back.

We are more than capable of getting at least 4 points. I think we'll beat them in Hoopland and depending on need when we get them in Lansdowne we should have enough for them. So have faith and when they beat us 3-0 in November with their swashbuckling attacking football come back and be smug. Until then, let the light in.

[BonnieShels]

I didn't forecaset a last minute equaliser but I did say that although on paper we should be beaten I have seen enough weird stuff happen in football to retain hope.

I wonder did you think we were simply unlucky against Austria at home, or like me, did you think we were the architects of our own downfall? Sure, there was some bad luck involved too. But look at Germany. In the last ten minutes they retreated, failed to deal with some pretty basic pressure and, quite frankly, looked a bit panicky. Even at the death I didn't see us scoring but I did think if there was another ten minutes we could. It just looked like that, just as it looked like we'd concede an equaliser to Austria. Having hit the post and missed other chances was history by the time the Austria game entered its final minutes, just as was the case on Tuesday.

It's the Robbie Keane test, it's only luck when we do it and skillful patient play for other teams when they do it.

Incidentally a goal scored in the 94th min is worth the same as one scorescored in the 36th min. It feels better for us, but we played the same sport under the same rules with the same ball on the same pitch, for the same amount of time as Germany, we just happened to score when we did. If Wes had scored his chance earlier on we would not have been as elated and the luck factor might not seem as grand, but it matters not. We did the work and it paid off thankfully.

[DeLorean]

We were bloody lucky and you know it.

That's neither here nor there really. The point is that strange things happen in football all the time, a fact that you seemed to just dismiss over and over.


Where's your credibility?
;)

Here it is...


Obviously the odds are stacked high in favour of your prediction AB, it's a fairly safe bet in reality. We get it though, no need for the constant reminders that we are incapable of getting a result under any circumstances. The fact is though, that a positive result is possible. To say stranger things have happened would be an understatement. Football, and sport generally, throws up unexpected results all the time, as I'm sure anybody who has ever done a four or five team accumulator full of dead certs will testify. Germany cost me a stupid amount of money when they didn't 'sneak a win' against Ghana at the WC. A week or two later they were putting seven past Brazil, as I shook my head with contempt.

:)

[ArdeeBhoy]

Except that is just throwing grass in the wind...and Stutts got to the 'strange' point first! Fair play.
;)

[ArdeeBhoy]

Why aren't we?

We're better all over the park than them give or take. We are substantially better defensively and as we saw in the Georgia and Germany games, our never say die attitude seems to be coming back.

We are more than capable of getting at least 4 points. I think we'll beat them in Hoopland and depending on need when we get them in Lansdowne we should have enough for them. So have faith and when they beat us 3-0 in November with their swashbuckling attacking football come back and be smug. Until then, let the light in.

Er, our attacking threat is not the greatest, though we are very dogged defensively. Sometimes.

Just don't see how we'll score enough to get 4 points from both Alba/Polska. You can only have so much luck/uncertainty...

4 0-0's almost wouldn't surprise me.
:rolleyes:

[DeLorean]

Except that is just throwing grass in the wind...and Stutts got to the 'strange' point first! Fair play.
;)

Well I mentioned it in the quoted bit as well. And anyway, I think everybody (bar you) realised that it was possible we could get something from the game, unlikely - yes, but not impossible. Your attitude was that it wasn't even worth discussing tactics, injuries, etc., because we were going to lose anyway, that the Scotland game should be our main focus. And instead of learning from your stubborn refusal to accept you're a mere human, devoid of any mystical powers, you continue to bang on about how this and that can't or won't happen. Get over it ArdeeBhoy, get over it! :)

[ArdeeBhoy]

Yawn, so what? I was wrong. But only because we were pretty lucky.
Even the world's biggest bar-stooler & MO'N know that. No part of any 'master plan'.

Get over it.

[pineapple stu]

Right now we are joint top of the group. So we are in a position where we can win the group without relying on others. Germany are not.
If Germany win all the rest of their games, they are 99.99% of winning the group (basically unless Poland also win all their games, except they lose by one goal at home to Germany)

Can't really say Germany are relying on others to win the group.

[BonnieShels]

Er, our attacking threat is not the greatest, though we are very dogged defensively. Sometimes.

Just don't see how we'll score enough to get 4 points from both Alba/Polska. You can only have so much luck/uncertainty...

4 0-0's almost wouldn't surprise me.
:rolleyes:

Ireland getting six points against Scotland you can't see but 4 * 0-0s wouldn't surprise ya?

Wow.


If Germany win all the rest of their games, they are 99.99% of winning the group (basically unless Poland also win all their games, except they lose by one goal at home to Germany)

Can't really say Germany are relying on others to win the group.

Eh? But if the roles were reversed you'd say the same. It can't be both.

We're ahead of Germany therefore if we win all of our games or at least equal Germany's results at this stage it matters not what Germany do.

Granted, Germany on form will likely win the rest of their games but right now, our fate is in our own hands. I'll take it.

[DeLorean]

Technically topping the group is still in Germany's hands, just as it's still in Poland's, Scotland's and our own. They're not reliant on other results so PS is right.

AB - What's the 'I' word?

[BonnieShels]

But we're relying on no one else and that's been the crux of what I was saying.

I would bet my hat and eat my house that if the situations were reversed PS would have stated the same thing.

[Stuttgart88]

Yawn, so what? I was wrong. But only because we were pretty lucky.
Even the world's biggest bar-stooler & MO'N know that. No part of any 'master plan'.

Get over it.
Yes, but you ruled out any chance of us being lucky. Most of us thought that if we were lucky we could get something. Luck was almost always going to be a central ingredient to the "a result is possible" thesis. That doesn't make DeLorean or anyone else of that view wrong.

The 'masterplan' point is a straw man. I don't think anyone is arguing that this was all a cunning ploy by O'Neill right down to the last detail, but by the same token if the idea was to keep the score tight and hope to take on of your own few chances - the same tactic employed by underdogs everywhere and one which often works - then credit where it's due.

[DeLorean]

But we're relying on no one else and that's been the crux of what I was saying.

That's fair enough but Germany aren't relying on anybody else either. Neither are Poland or Scotland as things stand.

[paul_oshea]

I didn't forecaset a last minute equaliser but I did say that although on paper we should be beaten I have seen enough weird stuff happen in football to retain hope.

I wonder did you think we were simply unlucky against Austria at home, or like me, did you think we were the architects of our own downfall? Sure, there was some bad luck involved too. But look at Germany. In the last ten minutes they retreated, failed to deal with some pretty basic pressure and, quite frankly, looked a bit panicky. Even at the death I didn't see us scoring but I did think if there was another ten minutes we could. It just looked like that, just as it looked like we'd concede an equaliser to Austria. Having hit the post and missed other chances was history by the time the Austria game entered its final minutes, just as was the case on Tuesday.

And thats what jogi love referred to as Naive.

Stutts your previous post to this was one of your best on here, but uncertainty is not the reason for crashes, hence why many predict them, crashes are inevitable, unfortunately like new serious diseases on population control. Ticking timebombs, its just a matter of when not if, and thats because there is certainty. But i agree with what you were trying to get at.

I thought McClean was very good as well, the ground he covered and the relief he gave us, he was the only one able to create a bit of space and those perfectly weighted dangerous crosses into the 6 yard box. Could have done it a bit more often though.

I also thought Quinn was immense and wasn't sure why he was being taken off, again being that far away you dont notice the panting - but you do notice the important things like ground covered and tracking and blocking runs, I also felt he made some great interceptions/tackles. Is quinn not pretty much a regular in the Hull side now as well?

Because of german naivety and inexperience we were allowed back into the game and they sat back, they thought after 1 - 0 they were home and dry because we had done so little. They were the architects of their own downfall as suggested by Stutts and if that was against the german team last year they would have finished us off and certainly not allowed us back into the game, but we were also lucky, that was a great goal, but i would like to see us try and pull it off again.

Stutts mentioned about lucky managers, O'Neill seems to be getting this luck. Thats what is giving me confidence for qualification. That and we appear to be the one scoring last minute goals and not conceding them, so luck and whatever else goes with it, we are still scoring at the death - it wont always happen but the fact it does bodes very well.

Also if we hadn't scored as late as we did I reckon Germany would have scored again!

[pineapple stu]

Eh? But if the roles were reversed you'd say the same. It can't be both.
Course it can.

After 0 games, Gibraltar weren't relying on other results to go their way in order for them to win the group.

They've just screwed up since is all.

If any of Germany, Ireland, Poland or Scotland win all their remaining games, they will in all probability win the group.

[Stuttgart88]

We're relying on luck.

[ArdeeBhoy]

And laboured sarcasm...
:rolleyes:

[Stuttgart88]

Paul, I was in a bar beside David McWilliams, the writer and economist. I follow him on Twitter and read a tweet before the game saying we had little chance but, hey, who knows? I replied by quoting Keynes on the difference between risk and uncertainty and shared a private (economists) joke about Hyman Minsky. He replied by saying that John O'Shea was Germany's Minsky Moment - I.e., the moment the bubble bursts!

Given you know all about the endogenous reasons for crashes you'll no doubt know about Minsky. He was absolutely right but was cast aside by the profession as his views didn't sit well with market fundamentalists and efficient market hypothesis advocates. I've no doubt you agree with him. However, markets do reach unrealistic valuations because of Keynes' risk vs uncertainty. What also matters is how risk positions are financed. Too much debt leaves the system vulnerable. Simple observation by Minsky but one that the most politically influential economists of the last 50 years overlooked, purely for ideological reasons.

Sorry lads, but I won't be told by Paul I don't understand financial crashes!

[Stuttgart88]

And laboured sarcasm...
:rolleyes:
Very good. The Thanks button is broken!

[paul_oshea]

Paul, I was in a bar beside David McWilliams, the writer and economist. I follow him on Twitter and read a tweet before the game saying we had little chance but, hey, who knows? I replied by quoting Keynes on the difference between risk and uncertainty and shared a private (economists) joke about Hyman Minsky. He replied by saying that John O'Shea was Germany's Minsky Moment - I.e., the moment the bubble bursts!

Given you know all about the endogenous reasons for crashes you'll no doubt know about Minsky. He was absolutely right but was cast aside by the profession as his views didn't sit well with market fundamentalists and efficient market hypothesis advocates. I've no doubt you agree with him. However, markets do reach unrealistic valuations because of Keynes' risk vs uncertainty. What also matters is how risk positions are financed. Too much debt leaves the system vulnerable. Simple observation by Minsky but one that the most politically influential economists of the last 50 years overlooked, purely for ideological reasons.

Sorry lads, but I won't be told by Paul I don't understand financial crashes!

But stutts youre saying its because of uncertainity or at least you were but somewhat changed that in the last post. Crashes are certain the timing is the problem, as no one can predict that. Yes Risk factors, the greeks play a part in the certainity and aversion of risk, but to say that the sub-prime and the ratios of lending in ireland to deposits is not a certainty and a ticking timebomb is plainly wrong. There are even theories out there of a 7 year cycle, just some crashes are less obvious.

I'd read hayek and myrdal before the others.

[Stuttgart88]

Hayek was in the pay of big business along with his buddy Friedman. Publicly they would complain about monopoly power yet privately they did what they could to ensure monopolists captured the state. He is so full of holes, exaggerations and contradictions it's amazing. His view of the world is a fantasist's view of the world, nothing that resembles real life. Keynes and Minsky absolutely nailed the cause of financial crises. There is a fair degree of truth in Hayek's views of "mal-investment" but none of it is inconsistent with Keynes and Minsky anyway. Hayek's views on economics were predicated on protecting the rich from inflation. His mate Friedman was General Pinochet's economic advisor. Hayek was the inspiration behind Reagan and Thatcher. 'Nuff said.

I don't think you understand Keynes and Minsky! Pretty hard to argue. Together their views explain absolutely 100pc the sub-prime blow up and the Irish property bubble. There is some of Hayek in there too, but it's incomplete.

I just read your post above again. You haven't understood my points at all, and you have misrepresented what I said to some extent too, albeit unintentially I reckon.

[paul_oshea]

My argument was that it is a certainty just because you don’t calculate like risk factors doesn’t mean its not a certainty! I thought that was clear!

Anyway we can take this offline stutts for whatsapp ;) I just saw your email with your link which I shall read. I have a good email from the actuaries of Uk and Ireland soc, where they go into detail about ratios and lending, savings v investment and how the Irish banks and Central bank had totally skewed this. It explains it all in detail and that for anyone with this knowledge in hand, made glaring mistakes - but it was most definitely a certainty ;). Wrong information in good hands v Right information in Bad hands...

[geysir]

The luck factor would describe a defender's deflection, one that he could do little about, turning a wayward ball into his own net.
Luck had nothing to do with our equaliser. We earned that goal through good football. Just because it was late, does not make it lucky.
We were only a goal down and even at that, it took a perfect shot to make that goal.
After going ahead, Germany were worn out by the effort, their other tough game previous and the experienced hands were not there to kill the game off for them.
As long as it stayed 1 nil, we had a real chance to create an equaliser from any attack.

To claim we were lucky is denying the validity of a large chunk of what makes certain games, gripping to the final whistle.