Group D - opponent watch!

[Stuttgart88]

That post by David is one of the best ever here. The foot.ie glory days are back.

[jinxy lilywhite]

I was having a quick glance over the tables. Although the 3rd place teams can change but a few of the bottom place sides can change too that would have a bearing on the final points positions also.

Serbia & Armenia
Kazakstan & Latvia
Belarus, Luxembourg & Macedonia
Faroe Islands & Greece
Liechtenstein & Moldova
Bulgaria, Azerbijan & Malta

[Real ale Madrid]

That post by David is one of the best ever here. The foot.ie glory days are back.

Couldn't agree more. Fella should have his own sub forum.

[Stuttgart88]

Opponent watch: Germany lost last night.

[davidatrb]

I really hope that Israel can turn this around. It won't be good news if Bosnia are 3rd and Israel 4th. As it stands Israel are now 1 point ahead with Belgium to play, Bosnia have Cyprus left plus about 20 minutes of the current games ...

If we have Bosnia 3rd it will be Ukraine, Sweden, Croatia and Bosnia seeded.

Then Ireland, Slovenia, Turkey and Albania.

A lot can change and probably will.. probably is that we dont want anything to change, just everything stay as it is!

[davidatrb]

Its all gone to pot now ....

[pineapple stu]

Isn't it more likely that Croatia will finish second and dump Norway into the play-offs?

Croatia are two points behind, but host Malta next while Norway travel to Italy

[davidatrb]

2331

3rd placed teams that are provisionally seeded are in green, 3rd placed teams that dont look like being seeded according to current coefficients are red. Some other teams that could potentially finish in 3rd are included. Hungary have the golden ticket i think.

We have a chance to replace Croatia as seeded if the qualify in 2nd putting Norway in 3rd. I suppose Israel could still mathematically finish ahead of Bosnia too. Still hoping that Turkey can keep Netherlands behind them - a draw against Poland would keep our coefficient higher than Denmark and Turkey - a defeat and we are taking a risk.

Do you fancy that we could beat Ukraine, Croatia, Bosnia or Sweden in a play off for Euro 2016 ..... I'll take my chances against Poland, hopefully O'Neil goes all out to win the match, I hope he realises what is at stake.

[DannyInvincible]

Do you fancy that we could beat Ukraine, Croatia, Bosnia or Sweden in a play off for Euro 2016 ..... I'll take my chances against Poland, hopefully O'Neil goes all out to win the match, I hope he realises what is at stake.

Can you email the FAI just in case? (Actually.)

Great work and many thanks for the insightful and enlightening contributions.

[davidatrb]

Isn't it more likely that Croatia will finish second and dump Norway into the play-offs?

Croatia are two points behind, but host Malta next while Norway travel to Italy

Yes but you could also say that it is more likely that Netherlands will be 3rd instead of Turkey, or that Denmark will fall into 3rd instead of Albania. Or even if Turkey do hold on to 3rd, they could leap us in the coefficient system, by my calculations.

[pineapple stu]

Fair enough.

Worth noting I think Hungary are best third-place team at the moment because of Croatia's one-point deduction. Would be very annoying if that cost us a seeding.

[geysir]

Yes but you could also say that it is more likely that Netherlands will be 3rd instead of Turkey, or that Denmark will fall into 3rd instead of Albania. Or even if Turkey do hold on to 3rd, they could leap us in the coefficient system, by my calculations.
Turkey are odds on to finish 3rd. On the hour mark this evening they began to look like a classy attractive team and should have won by a greater margin.
I suspect there was much frustration and anger in the Netherlands this evening ....... and I suppose I'm not too unhappy about that.
Turkey only need to draw at home with Iceland to go to the play offs, but would need to win to be a seeding contender ahead of us.

[eekers]

Here's how I see it.
Group A - Turkey surely have 3rd need a point at home against Iceland
Group B - Likely Bosnia will get 3rd. Israel need to get something away to Belgium after losing at home to Cyrpus
Group C - Has to be Ukraine. Ukraine need to beat/draw with Spain away hope Slovakia draw/lose to Luxembourg.
Group E - Slovenia
Group F - Hungary. Romania will beat the Faroes.
Group G - Sweden. Russia wont lose to Macedonia at home.
Group H - Norway. Norway wont beat Italy away.
Group I - Likely Albania. Cant see them getting a win in Armenia.

That would put us in the top seeded half with Turkey, Slovenia, Norway or Albania to play.

[elroy]

Here's how I see it.
Group A - Turkey surely have 3rd need a point at home against Iceland
Group B - Likely Bosnia will get 3rd. Israel need to get something away to Belgium after losing at home to Cyrpus
Group C - Has to be Ukraine. Ukraine need to beat/draw with Spain away hope Slovakia draw/lose to Luxembourg.
Group E - Slovenia
Group F - Hungary. Romania will beat the Faroes.
Group G - Sweden. Russia wont lose to Macedonia at home.
Group H - Norway. Norway wont beat Italy away.
Group I - Likely Albania. Cant see them getting a win in Armenia.

That would put us in the top seeded half with Turkey, Slovenia, Norway or Albania to play.

Decent summary, the critical results really being in group H replacing Croatia with Norway

[davidatrb]

Here's how I see it.
Group A - Turkey surely have 3rd need a point at home against Iceland


8/13 on oddschecker for Turkey to win, which is good and bad. If we lose and they win then they will have more coefficient points than we will, so it won't matter at all that they kept out Netherlands. 29/10 for a draw which is the best result for us.



Group B - Likely Bosnia will get 3rd. Israel need to get something away to Belgium after losing at home to Cyrpus
Group C - Has to be Ukraine. Ukraine need to beat/draw with Spain away hope Slovakia draw/lose to Luxembourg.
Group E - Slovenia
Group F - Hungary. Romania will beat the Faroes.
Group G - Sweden. Russia wont lose to Macedonia at home.


All agreed.



Group H - Norway. Norway wont beat Italy away.


Norway are 9/2 on oddschecker so not beyond the realms of possibility. Not the most likely result but I will still be keeping an eye on the score all the same.



Group I - Likely Albania. Cant see them getting a win in Armenia.


The bookies think that they can, Paddypower have them at 6/5 to win, so almost 50-50 chance.



That would put us in the top seeded half with Turkey, Slovenia, Norway or Albania to play.


I'm hoping. But even looking at it and how Turkey are playing lately, I wouldn't be happy with the potential of drawing them.

Get the job done and beat Poland! Please :)

[davidatrb]

I think this summarises the likely scenarios. Still though, likely that some result will throw up something that I hadn't consider, like Cyprus beating Israel (that was a 6/1 shot). I had taken it for granted that they would easy win this and I think I hoped a little too much that Bosnia would struggle against the Welsh.

http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/10/the-hidden-battle-for-euro-2016-seeding.html

[tetsujin1979]

Just read on wikipedia that the draw for the play offs is on the 18th October, and the next set of FIFA rankings are due to be released on the 5th November, so will the win over Germany, and the result against Poland be taken into account when the draw is made?

[davidatrb]

Just read on wikipedia that the draw for the play offs is on the 18th October, and the next set of FIFA rankings are due to be released on the 5th November, so will the win over Germany, and the result against Poland be taken into account when the draw is made?

Well according to wiki also:



The teams are seeded for the play-off draw according to the UEFA national team coefficient rankings updated after the completion of the group stage.


So yes the Germany result will count but no not the FIFA Rankings. In UEFA coefficient calculation the strength of opposition counts for nothing so doesn't cause such a huge swing as it will in FIFA rankings but definitely still helps.

[tetsujin1979]

Well according to wiki also:



So yes the Germany result will count but no not the FIFA Rankings. In UEFA coefficient calculation the strength of opposition counts for nothing so doesn't cause such a huge swing as it will in FIFA rankings but definitely still helps.

ah, I see. Thank you.

[Eirambler]

Even if we don't qualify automatically on Sunday, a draw would be a huge help in terms of the co-efficient as it would keep us ahead of Turkey and Denmark in terms of seeding. If we lose on Sunday I'd expect us to be unseeded for the playoffs after what happened in Wales' group last night.

[davidatrb]

Another reason to beat Poland. At the moment we would be in Pot 4 if we qualify - so looking at potential of something like a group of death (eg Spain, Italy, Czech, Ireland) in the Euro 2016 proper.

http://www.footballseeding.com/national-ranking-uefa/

I finally understand why he is colour-coding the table on footballseeding.com.

It looks to me that if Netherlands dont qualify then we are first in line to move into Pot 3, we should also move up ahead of Denmark (if we at least draw).

Anyway, definitely getting a step ahead of myself here.

[Cymro]

The third-placed team in our group is very interesting. No one has mentioned the possibility of Cyprus being third in our group - but it is quite possible. If they beat Bosnia-H at home and Israel fail to beat Belgium they will be third. That would be a great success for them, I hope they do it.

It looks like you will be seeded in the play-offs should you fail to qualify automatically. I can't really see Norway beating Italy which is what it basically boils down to, right?

[davidatrb]

The third-placed team in our group is very interesting. No one has mentioned the possibility of Cyprus being third in our group - but it is quite possible. If they beat Bosnia-H at home and Israel fail to beat Belgium they will be third. That would be a great success for them, I hope they do it.

It looks like you will be seeded in the play-offs should you fail to qualify automatically. I can't really see Norway beating Italy which is what it basically boils down to, right?

Yes if we draw then we probably should be seeded for the playoffs but not guaranteed. But if we lose its a whole other story and its hard to see all the results going our way to be seeded - Norway to replace Croatia in third, Turkey to hold off Netherlands (but to do it without winning against Iceland) and Albania to fail to beat Armenia.

Cyprus or Israel toppling Bosnia might also help but looks too unlikely to count on.

[Stuttgart88]

The third-placed team in our group is very interesting. No one has mentioned the possibility of Cyprus being third in our group - but it is quite possible. If they beat Bosnia-H at home and Israel fail to beat Belgium they will be third. That would be a great success for them, I hope they do it.

It looks like you will be seeded in the play-offs should you fail to qualify automatically. I can't really see Norway beating Italy which is what it basically boils down to, right?just a quick "well done" on my part, and I'm sure on behalf of everyone else here. You've been a really welcome guest on this forum down the years.

[Cymro]

just a quick "well done" on my part, and I'm sure on behalf of everyone else here. You've been a really welcome guest on this forum down the years.

Thanks Stuttgart88 - and I expect we'll see you in France. I'm a bit gutted for the Scots I have to say though. I will be watching your game with interest tonight.

Oh, and bring on the World Cup qualifiers after that. If you could draw all games against Serbia and Austria whilst we (meaning Wales and ROI), er, don't make a deal to split the games one win each, that would probably do.

[Cymro]

Yes if we draw then we probably should be seeded for the playoffs but not guaranteed. But if we lose its a whole other story and its hard to see all the results going our way to be seeded - Norway to replace Croatia in third, Turkey to hold off Netherlands (but to do it without winning against Iceland) and Albania to fail to beat Armenia.

Cyprus or Israel toppling Bosnia might also help but looks too unlikely to count on.

It isn't that unlikely, basically if Cyprus win they have done it. Israel are more unlikely. My money's on the Bosnio-Herzogvinians (sic?) though.

[davidatrb]

It isn't that unlikely, basically if Cyprus win they have done it. Israel are more unlikely. My money's on the Bosnio-Herzogvinians (sic?) though.

Well paddy power agrees with you 14/5 for Cyprus to beat Bosnia... Surprises me a little but all the better if it can help Ireland out.

[eekers]

So Denmark will be third. A loss to Poland will put us below Denmark in the seeding. A draw would bring us ahead of them.

[davidatrb]

So Denmark will be third. A loss to Poland will put us below Denmark in the seeding. A draw would bring us ahead of them.

2332

I've added Cyprus to my little table they could still play a part in our destination. Updated for the 5pm games.

Hungary losing is actually good, because we can now jump ahead of them with a draw, and if Ukraine beat Spain then Hungary lose their golden ticket.

Albania winning was a bit expected but as eekers said, we're not that worried about Denmark because we can jump them with at least a draw.

Best chance still looks like a Norway slip against Italy, but now also the Ukraine/Spain result can give us another way in.

I hope none of it matters though. Just beat Poland!

[geysir]

http://foot.ie/attachment.php?attachmentid=2332&stc=1

I've added Cyprus to my little table they could still play a part in our destination. Updated for the 5pm games.

Hungary losing is actually good, because we can now jump ahead of them with a draw, and if Ukraine beat Spain then Hungary lose their golden ticket.

Albania winning was a bit expected but as eekers said, we're not that worried about Denmark because we can jump them with at least a draw.

Best chance still looks like a Norway slip against Italy, but now also the Ukraine/Spain result can give us another way in.

I hope none of it matters though. Just beat Poland!
Hungary losing makes no real difference as they lost to the bottom side. They will progress as the best 3rd placed team

[Real ale Madrid]

Hungary losing makes no real difference as they lost to the bottom side. They will progress as the best 3rd placed team

Unless Ukraine beat Spain at home. (Spain already Q)

[tricky_colour]

Here's how I see it.
Group A - Turkey surely have 3rd need a point at home against Iceland
Group B - Likely Bosnia will get 3rd. Israel need to get something away to Belgium after losing at home to Cyrpus
Group C - Has to be Ukraine. Ukraine need to beat/draw with Spain away hope Slovakia draw/lose to Luxembourg.
Group E - Slovenia
Group F - Hungary. Romania will beat the Faroes.
Group G - Sweden. Russia wont lose to Macedonia at home.
Group H - Norway. Norway wont beat Italy away.
Group I - Likely Albania. Cant see them getting a win in Armenia.

That would put us in the top seeded half with Turkey, Slovenia, Norway or Albania to play.


At a glance I though Bosnia would be in the bottom half, however I do not know the UEFA
rankings I was working on the basis of points earned in the group stage, but I susect
that is invalid?

Anyone have the UEFA rankings?

[tricky_colour]

Just done the rankings


turkey 12
Netherlands 10

Isreal 22
Bosna 38
cyprus 18

Ukraine 8
Slovakia 31

Slovenia 30

Hungary 33

Sweden 20
Russia 7

Croatia 17
Norway 24

Denmark 22

Bit of a waste of time given we are ranked about 1 millionth.

[forget this I think those were club rankings, which actually make me feel a little better as we are much better as a country than at club level :) )

[davidatrb]

At a glance I though Bosnia would be in the bottom half, however I do not know the UEFA
rankings I was working on the basis of points earned in the group stage, but I susect
that is invalid?

Anyone have the UEFA rankings?

I'm basing it off this page.

http://m.footballseeding.com/national-ranking-uefa/

What's worrying is that the same coefficient will be used for allocating pots. Looks like we are 3 or 4 places off making pot 3. Pot 4 would mean that in theory we will face 3 better teams eg Germany Belgium and Czech.

[TrapAPony]

Looks like we are going to get one of Denmark, Ukraine, Bosnia or Sweden. Am I right in saying that? No easy draw there

[davidatrb]

Looks like we are going to get one of Denmark, Ukraine, Bosnia or Sweden. Am I right in saying that? No easy draw there

Yes. That's what I calculate too. Will be screaming for Cyprus on Tuesday. And Ukraine tomorrow only because Hungary in the playoffs would be better than Ukraine. Oh and a draw for Turkey and only a draw.

[tricky_colour]

I'm basing it off this page.

http://m.footballseeding.com/national-ranking-uefa/

What's worrying is that the same coefficient will be used for allocating pots. Looks like we are 3 or 4 places off making pot 3. Pot 4 would mean that in theory we will face 3 better teams eg Germany Belgium and Czech.

Yes seem I used the club rankings. :redface-new:

[TrapAPony]

Lets just hope Turkey dont mess up to allow Holland in, Cyprus beat Bosnia, Ukraine beat Spain & Norway don't beat Italy. The playoffs might look a little better after that.

[tricky_colour]

Well it seems we require a number of results to go our way so our chances of being seeded must be very slim.

The whole thing is bit of a nonsense though as it is often based on out of date form, that bit might work in our favour.

Indeed it is so complicated managers should use a computer to determine tactics!!
(they probably already do!!)

[geysir]

Unless Ukraine beat Spain at home. (Spain already Q)
That chance exists.
And if so, as an unseeded team, we would be blessed (relatively speaking) if we got Hungary.

[DeLorean]

Strachan reckons the Euros will be worse off without the Scotland fans. Well, seeing as it would have been at our expense, he's obviously talking out of his arse :)

Seems to be making a lot of excuses too and I'm not sure his comment about not being able to play quickly against defensive sides stacks up, the whole point of moving the ball quickly is to drag their opponents out of position. It's not easy, but it's not impossible.

BBC Sport (http://m.bbc.com/sport/football/35187272?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_match_ of_the_day&ns_source=facebook&ns_linkname=sport)

[paul_oshea]

I always worry about managers who come out defiant and say stuff like I wouldn't change anything when their objectives hasn't been met. They failed and should want to change it to get it right for the next time. Regardless of luck.

[DeLorean]

Steven Fletcher signs for Marseille! At least Scotland will have one man in France this summer! :D:D

http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/67/590x/Scotland-Scotland-v-Gibraltar-Euro-2016-Steven-Fletcher-Gordon-Strachan-567154.jpg