Group D - opponent watch!

[ArdeeBhoy]

Ha.
For what it's worth we will beat the theme park. Or if we don't...
Though not by as much as Polska, just can't see seven goals in this team.
:sweat:

[DeLorean]

So how many AB? Make me some Euro.

[Charlie Darwin]

I think the results against Gibraltar are irrelevant in a tie-breaker, thankfully.

[DannyInvincible]

The results against the last-placed team are discarded from determining the best third-placed finisher between all the groups, but results against Gibraltar (assuming they finish last) would be a factor in determining who finishes where within the group: http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/03/92/81/2039281_DOWNLOAD.pdf


Article 13 Equality of points – qualifying competition

13.01: If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine the rankings:

a. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
b. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
c. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;
d. higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played among the teams in question;
e. if, after having applied criteria a) to d), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to d) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams in question to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria f) to j) apply;
f. superior goal difference in all group matches;
g. higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
h. higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
i. fair play conduct in all group matches as defined in Annex C.5.1;
j. position in the UEFA national team coefficient rankings (see Annex B.1.2.b).

Article 14 Qualification for the final tournament

14.01: The nine group winners, the nine group runners-up and the best third-placed team qualify directly for the final tournament.

14.02: To compare the rankings between the qualifying groups and to determine the best third-placed team, the results against the teams in sixth place are discarded.

The following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine the rankings:

a. higher number of points obtained;
b. superior goal difference;
c. higher number of goals scored;
d. higher number of away goals scored;
e. fair play conduct in all group matches as defined in Annex C.5.1;
f. position in the UEFA national team coefficient rankings (see Annex B.1.2.b).

[Stuttgart88]

Ok, so head to head first, then GD. That's good for us I think.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Three Scottish goalscorers with four overall goals in the Premier League today. There have been two Irish goalscorers with an overall total of two goals all season. *Groans*

[Charlie Darwin]

Let's not even bother playing Scotland, they're going to beat us.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

It's just depressing watching Soccer Saturday knowing that no Irish players will score.

Morrison, Dorrans, Arfield, Naismith and Wallace have all scored by now.

How do we have so many low scoring players? Whelan, McCarthy, Quinn and Gibson must have about 4 goals in the last 400 games between them by comparison.

[Charlie Darwin]

You really can't read very much into it. They have more attacking players starting in the division, whereas we have a lot more defensive players. If Robbie was playing in the Premier League he'd have more goals than the lot of them combined.

Fletcher scored twice today, his only goals this season. He got three in the whole of last season. He's Kevin Doyle without the work rate. I wouldn't worry about it.

[Supreme feet]

It's just depressing watching Soccer Saturday knowing that no Irish players will score.

Morrison, Dorrans, Arfield, Naismith and Wallace have all scored by now.

How do we have so many low scoring players? Whelan, McCarthy, Quinn and Gibson must have about 4 goals in the last 400 games between them by comparison.

Not to worry TOWK, Simon Cox and Paul Green both scored today.

[DannyInvincible]

Not to worry TOWK, Simon Cox and Paul Green both scored today.

Fitting.

[tetsujin1979]

Strange that Scotland's players playing well means they'll beat us, but Germany's players playing well means we'll get a result off them!

[Crosby87]

Cox loves to score.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

I think people may be misinterpreting what I am saying.

Out of Arfield, Wallace, Morrison, Dorrans, Naismith and Fletcher - only Naismith and Morrison, at a push, are anything to write home about.

I'm not making a point about their players or drawing comparisons to our own players.

It's just utterly mind boggling - and a bit depressing - watching Soccer Saturday every week and their players score more than our own. I mean all those players I've just mentioned have one goal already. I would wager a bet with anyone here that McCarthy, Gibson, Ireland, Meyler, Quinn and Whelan (combined) will have less goals than all of those players have already (combined) by the end of the season.

I would still 55-45 expect Ireland to beat Scotland

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

This is why I was desperate for Brady to start or for Coleman to regain full fitness this weekend. They are the only Irish players, along with Long, who look confident enough to score on any kind of recurring basis - and Long is being played out of position!

[DannyInvincible]

I would wager a bet with anyone here that McCarthy, Gibson, Ireland, Meyler, Quinn and Whelan (combined) will have less goals than all of those players have already (combined) by the end of the season.

All those Irish players you mention play in defensive or holding roles. It's no surprise they're not racking up the goals.

[Stuttgart88]

I think if Long, McGeady, Walters, Doyle, Keane and Brady were playing Championship football they'd have bags of goals. Naismith is a worry, no doubt.

TOWK, how come you've ignored Daryl Murphy, who has scored plenty for Ipswich? You 've been a fan recently enough. McGoldrick - relevant on the assumption he'll be available before long - has been doing as well as any Scotsman really and Sammon has been doing well enough at that level too. McClean was excellent against Ipswich. Pilkington scored last week, Hoolahan has been playing well. Reid - relevance debatable - has been playing well. Matt Doherty too, as TOWK is happy to point out. Westwood MOTM today and very good all season. I'm sure there are others relevant too, not least Eoin Doyle and Conor Hourihane. I dunno about Arter and O'Kane though either could sneak into Scotland's squad probably. Maybe even Sean Scannell too. Didn't Hendrick start the season with a few goals before his injury?

TOWK made the point after two or three weeks of the season that the Scots everywhere have started better than our players. I made the point (by way of a question) a couple of weeks ago that our equivalents have caught up, at least. The point went unnoticed though.

Our problem is that some of our players would probably be standouts at Championship level but not good enough to tear up trees at EPL level.

The bigger worry for me is that Strachan is happy to trust non-elite players whereas our management think it's some kind of crisis that we don't have a team full of Champions League players. It's not.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Let's not even bother playing Scotland, they're going to beat us.
Hmm, not even WGS thinks that but let's hope MO'N has a cunning plan...

[Stuttgart88]

Naismith with a goal at Old Trafford.

[GypsyBlackCat]

You really can't read very much into it. They have more attacking players starting in the division, whereas we have a lot more defensive players. If Robbie was playing in the Premier League he'd have more goals than the lot of them combined.

Fletcher scored twice today, his only goals this season. He got three in the whole of last season. He's Kevin Doyle without the work rate. I wouldn't worry about it.

I disagree with that last sentence. Fletcher didn't play that much last season through injury. Let's face facts, at 31 Doyle is finished as top class striker. On paper there isn't much between Ireland and Scotland but the Scots have an edge about them. We don't.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Plus there's no way now Robbie could cut it now in the EPL on a regular basis, the odd cameo fair enough.

[Charlie Darwin]

I disagree with that last sentence. Fletcher didn't play that much last season through injury. Let's face facts, at 31 Doyle is finished as top class striker. On paper there isn't much between Ireland and Scotland but the Scots have an edge about them. We don't.
He played 27 times last season, which is plenty. A striker with a 1 in 9 record isn't to be feared.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Hmm, Fletcher & Naismith both scored at the weekend as mentioned before. Wouldn't be too smug, especially as pretty little chance of Kevin Doyle doing likewise...
:(

[Charlie Darwin]

Naismith's a very good player. Fletcher's alright. Naismith is a type of player we don't have, a very intelligent player between the lines who gets his share of goals. Fletcher is just a bit of a mystery - he doesn't score many goals, doesn't do any real work, doesn't keep defenders occupied with his movement. But, sure, a goal every nine games. We have nobody who can compete with that.

[GypsyBlackCat]

He played 27 times last season, which is plenty. A striker with a 1 in 9 record isn't to be feared.

One bad in which he didn't start many games. To say he's like Kevin Doyle is madness!


Steven Fletcher
2009/10 - Burnley 38/12
2010/11 - Wolves 34/12
2011/12 - Wolves 34/12
2012/13 - Sunderland 30/11
2013/14 - Sunderland 26/3

Kevin Doyle
2009/10 - Wolves 37/9
2010/11 - Wolves 31/8
2011/12 - Wolves 36/4
2012/13 - Wolves 44/9 (Champioship)
2013/14 - Wolves 25/3 (League One)
2013/14 - QPR 13/2 (Championship)

Shane Long
2009/10 - Reading 36/9 (Championship)
2010/11 - Reading 52/25 (Championship)
2011/12 - West Brom 33/8
2012/13 - West Brom 37/11
2013/14 - West Brom 17/3
2013/14 - Hull City 15/4

So last season Long got 7 goals in 32 games. Which about the same as Fletcher. This season Fletcher has 5/2 were as Long is 8/0 in a better team.

I'm not say we should fear Fletcher. But along with Naismith they look kile hitting a grove. Where as our strikers haven't scored many. Not that's a worry.

[Charlie Darwin]

One bad in which he didn't start many games. To say he's like Kevin Doyle is madness!


Steven Fletcher
2009/10 - Burnley 38/12
2010/11 - Wolves 34/12
2011/12 - Wolves 34/12
2012/13 - Sunderland 30/11
2013/14 - Sunderland 26/3

Kevin Doyle
2009/10 - Wolves 37/9
2010/11 - Wolves 31/8
2011/12 - Wolves 36/4
2012/13 - Wolves 44/9 (Champioship)
2013/14 - Wolves 25/3 (League One)
2013/14 - QPR 13/2 (Championship)

Shane Long
2009/10 - Reading 36/9 (Championship)
2010/11 - Reading 52/25 (Championship)
2011/12 - West Brom 33/8
2012/13 - West Brom 37/11
2013/14 - West Brom 17/3
2013/14 - Hull City 15/4

So last season Long got 7 goals in 32 games. Which about the same as Fletcher. This season Fletcher has 5/2 were as Long is 8/0 in a better team.

I'm not say we should fear Fletcher. But along with Naismith they look kile hitting a grove. Where as our strikers haven't scored many. Not that's a worry.
Well my point is actually that he's not Kevin Doyle. Unlike Doyle, he scores the odd goal, but outside of finishing he doesn't do an awful lot to help his team or create anything.

[SwanVsDalton]

On form, Fletcher's a good player. Strong, can link up play well and has a surprisingly deft touch. But he appears to be streaky as get out, not to mention more than a bit temperamental.

[GypsyBlackCat]

Well my point is actually that he's not Kevin Doyle. Unlike Doyle, he scores the odd goal, but outside of finishing he doesn't do an awful lot to help his team or create anything.

Ourselves and Scotland are well balanced. My problem is the fact that they can call upon Rhodes, Flecther and Stevie May along with Naismith. We don't have the choice. In another way I wouldn't swap defensive option with Scotland. Well, maybe Ward!

[Kingdom]

Stevie May! Stevie harder to miss than score May? For the love of God, if you're going to use an example of belittling our talent pool to those of the Scots, keep it realistic.

Stevie May, ha ha ha, that's made my afternoon.

[DeLorean]

I had never heard of May so can't really comment on his ability. I see he has only played a handful of games at Championship level, having been prolific in Scotland. Surely someone like Chris Martin is higher up in the pecking order, as he has been consistently scoring goals at that level for eighteen months or more.

[DannyInvincible]

Özil is an injury doubt for next Tuesday: http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/international/2014/1008/650884-ozil-to-undergo-tests/


Mesut Ozil is a serious doubt for Germany’s upcoming clash with Republic of Ireland after the German Football Association announced the midfielder will undergo tests on a knee injury in Munich.

The 25-year-old has not been able to train with the national team and will be doubtful for their Euro 2016 qualifiers against Poland on Saturday and the Republic of Ireland next Tuesday.

Ozil played the full 90 minutes of Arsenal's 2-0 defeat to Chelsea in the Premier League on Sunday, but reported for international duty with the complaint, according to the DFB.

The governing body said on its official website: "The Arsenal player had come with complaints in the left knee when he met up with the German team in Frankfurt and on Wednesday morning, he travelled to Munich to undergo an MRI examination."

[Stuttgart88]

I heard Draxler is a doubt too, flu.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Ok, so Germany 'reserves' then, clearly they think they won't have to be at full strength. Sadly we're not or it might have been interesting.

[Stuttgart88]

Ok, so Germany 'reserves' then, clearly they think they won't have to be at full strength.
They're injured or ill. It's not like the Germans are thinking of resting players. They have to play Poland first which is no gimme, especially with the local derby aspect. Those players will miss Poland before they miss us.

Still, it's encouraging to know you think our first XI might get a result from their reserves. That's clear progress!

[ArdeeBhoy]

Not really. And they might struggle in one game, but not both. The Polska game more so as it's away.

[jbyrne]

Özil is an injury doubt for next Tuesday: http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/international/2014/1008/650884-ozil-to-undergo-tests/

confirmed out for 10 to 12 weeks it appears

[Stuttgart88]

Not really. And they might struggle in one game, but not both. The Polska game more so as it's away.
Yeah, rather than being happy that they have so many out I'm feeling it's much more of an advantage for Poland than it is for us.

[paul_oshea]

Thats what i think too, unless of course schrule and mueller get red cards against Poland but after they have gone 2 - 0 up so they will hold onto win.

Its definitely more of an advantage to poland.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

IDK. They have a few top class players like Schurrle and Gotze but as many are missing for some reason. Players like Schurrle and Gotze have the benefit of playing with 10 world class teammates every week but hopefully with the amount of retirements/injuries in the German squad they won't look as impressive playing with players who haven't settled in/aren't world class/aren't first choice.

Mustafi is having a good season with Valencia after flattering to deceive at Everton and Samp.

[DeLorean]

Emmet Malone in Today's Irish Times writes about German football's careful planning.

Inside German Football: Vorsprung durch technique - Germany’s formula for success (http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/international/inside-german-football-vorsprung-durch-technique-germany-s-formula-for-success-1.1958435)

[Stuttgart88]

Compare that to the SFAI attitude expressed in the Miguel Delaney blog on another thread.

[geysir]

The richest and most populous (after Russia) country in Europe could finally get its act together, go around and copy what others were doing and by sheer weight of an enormous player population, manage to find a few gems in amongst the weeds.
And it took them 10 or 12 years. I suppose that's not bad going for a country that once produced the Trabant, Wartburg and Opel Kadett.

[Stuttgart88]

I think the fact that they kept the elite level of club football integrated into the whole system and sympathetic to the quest for a successful national team is a bigger part of the picture. Compare this to England which has had an unprecedented economic boom in football yet the FA is weighed down with the cost of financing its stadium and grassroots football has third world facilities.

[geysir]

England are a dysfunctional example. Germany copied what other countries were doing .. that worked, they didn't invent anything, sheer weight of numbers means they can churn out a stronger squad than say Holland. Integration was not a novel idea. And they were smart enough not to bother with a national stadium, but did it take a genius to work that one out, considering there were all these huge stadiums scattered around Germany?

[Stuttgart88]

I'm not saying Germany is a wondrous example of man's ingenuity but all I'm saying is that if you work on the assumption that population and popularity of football is a necessary but insufficient condition to win things, the remaining necessary ingredients include organisational / institutional efficiency.

The corollary (?) is that institutional efficiency is by itself also a necessary but insufficient ingredient. A country like Ireland has neither but a country like, say, Croatia I suspect has the latter - though I don't really know. Germany has both, Spain has population and an odd but respectable institutional structure. England, Italy and Brazil have population but are institutionally dysfunctional. I don't know about Argentina or Russia so much, though I expect the latter is institutionally weak. Poland has population but is a shambles institutionally, or so I'm led to believe. Holland has the institutional strength and just about enough of a population to be very competitive, but not enough to be winners.

The USA has the population, growing popularity plus some strong institutional arrangements, notwithstanding the observation that working class kids are priced out of football, a major weakness. One to look out for I think. Japan might be too.

France appeared to have both ingredients for a while.

No?

Edit: Iceland clearly has no great population but would appear to have sound organisational arrangements. Or is their relative success down to something else?

[ArdeeBhoy]

Sure geysir will tell us otherwise, but part of Island's recent improvement, is probably 'cyclical', as in they happen to have a crop of decent players right now.
In 20 years time they'll probably be rubbish again and so it continues.

[geysir]

Sure geysir will tell us otherwise, but part of Island's recent improvement, is probably 'cyclical', as in they happen to have a crop of decent players right now.
In 20 years time they'll probably be rubbish again and so it continues.
What's the point AB? In 20 years you will be 20 years closer to death, so why bother?
Why bother trying to explore the limits of how good you can be or how good a structure of football can be? why bother if it's all cyclical, ignoring the glaring obvious fact that in times gone by there were just a few little ripples now and again.
And now that there is a solid structure in place in iceland, not just for this generation of footballers but also for the next coming through, you choose to ignore the 15 years of graft to get to this stage, dismiss it all outright, because it's probably all cyclical?
I think you're probably talking thro' yer hole, yet again :)

[ArdeeBhoy]

If you say so, but you do know what I mean.
And if we're both still here in 20 years time, we'll see who's right? And who was talking through their, er, hole.
;)

[ArdeeBhoy]

Anyway, back in the real world...
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/international/european-championship-qualifiers-strachans-good-mood-depends-on-beating-georgia-9788702.html

[Stuttgart88]

AB is unwittingly coming across as an arch economic libertarian. Remove the state from economic life, it will steal your freedom. The free market will deliver all our needs and wants as long as individuals are left free to choose their own actions in the rational pursuit of utility. Planning is communism.

I suspect his political views are rather different!