Unemployment

[Macy]

I think the problem with moving job in this climate is that you don't know what financial situation they are in, at least with existing employer you should have better idea if business coming in.
Plus many of your employment rights and entitlements don't kick in for a year.

[pete]

Plus many of your employment rights and entitlements don't kick in for a year.

Statutory redundency isn't much but better than nothing.

[Macy]

Statutory redundency isn't much but better than nothing.
But it is better. And still you have more employment rights after a year.

[mypost]

26k added last month, with 3 days less in that month.

Figures are 353k, 80k since December, and a national unemployment rate of 10.4%.

Starting to fear a social welfare tax coming up in the next budget. Which morally would be economic treason, by penalising the innocent victims at the very, very bottom end of the economic ladder. I couldn't vote for a party that ever carried or threatened to carry out such a measure.

[pete]

Probably the shocking thing about the unemployment numbers is i think it has increased 78% in last 12 months & takes no account of the people on 3 day week or say one week off every month.

[mypost]

The more shocking thing is that the government don't care about the figures. They'll be put to bed, while they concentrate on those in the public sector and their finances (people who have jobs) until the next haemorrage figures are released next month. :rolleyes:

The government should remember that they have a responsibility to look after every person in the country, not just those crying at losing €50-odd a week. :mad:

[NeilMcD]

The problem is that in order to look after the people on the dole (not sure what you mean by the way and what they should do) is to drop the corporate rate of tax and to have further tax incentives for companies and entrepreneurs to create jobs. However there is not much of a climate out there for that sort of thing as people will see that as rewarding the rich.

The other thing they can do is to help those on the dole is to increae their benefits, something they are not going to do with the public finances the way they are and also as we are in a largely deflationary environment.

Another thing they could do is to employ more people in the Dept of Social Welfare to deal with the long waiting list for people to get their dole. Again because of the public finances they will not do this. However there is a call for temporary staff to help with this.

THere are a few other things they can do like re-training in areas that are growth areas (is there any out there?) They could also have tax incentives for employers who employ more staff this year and have some sort of half and half measue for people to keep their staff on etc. THere does need to be creative thinking in this area.

[OneRedArmy]

I couldn't vote for a party that ever carried or threatened to carry out such a measure.What about the other 4,297 reasons not to vote for them?

Were the backdrop not so serious, I'd have died laughing at Greens Deputy Leader Mary Whites uggesting a text message tax this morning.

The Government are spineless, baseless, self-serving cowards without a scintilla of remorse for their role in getting us to this position, but even worse, they will do anything to postpone raising taxes on their watch, even when, day-by-day, it further jeopardizes our fiscal position. In this light, the request for the opposition to provide ideas should be seen for what it is, a pathetic attempt to share the blame for the inevitable cutbacks that will be suggested rather than being a positive example of "pulling together in a crisis".

[pete]

Another thing they could do is to employ more people in the Dept of Social Welfare to deal with the long waiting list for people to get their dole. Again because of the public finances they will not do this. However there is a call for temporary staff to help with this.

There has to be areas of the public sector which are very quiet now due to lack of economic activity - I presume they have been reallocated?

[mypost]

What about the other 4,297 reasons not to vote for them?

You treat the unemployed as taboo. It's already tough getting by on €10k a year, without the added punishment of a tax or cutback on the measly amount given to them.

[OneRedArmy]

You treat the unemployed as taboo. It's already tough getting by on €10k a year, without the added punishment of a tax or cutback on the measly amount given to them.

I don't disagree that it's tough but energy costs are falling and there is price deflation.

Either the Government make the numbers add up or the IMF will.

[mypost]

We're a good way off IMF ground yet.

Energy prices have dropped by the bare minimum, but the cost of living is still high. Transport costs are still at January levels and won't come down. Pub and restaurant prices remain unchanged.

Saw Lenihan's interview tonight on RTE, which reading between the lines, he's clearly looking at social welfare cuts. Apparantly, handing €6.50 last January was a "generous increase". :rolleyes: It wouldn't even buy you a standard McDonalds meal.

If he could spend a month living on €800, less rent/mortgage/bills, he wouldn't dare touch social welfare. Hitting the most vulnerable in society is not treason, it's daylight robbery.

[OneRedArmy]

No offence but I wouldn't necessarily include pubs, restaurants and McDonalds in the "struggling to make ends meet" category.

There's price deflation in many key areas. That's a fact.

As for being far away from the IMF, day by day, it looks more likely that they, or the EU, will have to bail us out.

[mypost]

The IMF question is for the financial crisis thread.

Deflation or inflation, imposing a sw cut will cause uproar. You don't attack the most vulnerable in society, be they OAP's or the dole, you just don't. Lenihan will have to find other means of getting the state's finances in order.

Job creation should be the number one priority for the government, not playing musical chairs every few months with the public finances.

[Macy]

The more shocking thing is that the government don't care about the figures. They'll be put to bed, while they concentrate on those in the public sector and their finances (people who have jobs) until the next haemorrage figures are released next month. :rolleyes:
I'm not sure what you're getting at, the public sector is looking at more cuts on top of tax increases. I'm not sure pushing more onto the dole queues will help anyone...

[pete]

Saw Lenihan's interview tonight on RTE, which reading between the lines, he's clearly looking at social welfare cuts. Apparantly, handing €6.50 last January was a "generous increase". :rolleyes: It wouldn't even buy you a standard McDonalds meal.

If he could spend a month living on €800, less rent/mortgage/bills, he wouldn't dare touch social welfare. Hitting the most vulnerable in society is not treason, it's daylight robbery.

You can't really deal in individual money amounts like E6.50 as I am sure this is all done on percentage basis. Would E10 or E20 increase be generous? Social Welfare rates will always be less than people think they should be as there is no correct answer.

[mypost]

Private Members Motion in the Dail now, discussing unemployment.

Well, Labour who tabled the motion are discussing it. The FF-Green cabinet are busy pointing out their efforts with training and education schemes in response. :mad:

In one ear and out the other. :rolleyes:

[NeilMcD]

From reading your posts I know what you are against but I do not have a clue what you are for. YOu have offered no solutions on this board or any really constructive criticism. People may argue over less tax or more tax etc etc but at least people can agree that there is an intellectual basis for both sides I do not see any intellectual basis for any of your comments other than they are rants to be honest.

[OneRedArmy]

Private Members Motion in the Dail now, discussing unemployment.

Well, Labour who tabled the motion are discussing it. The FF-Green cabinet are busy pointing out their efforts with training and education schemes in response. :mad:

In one ear and out the other. :rolleyes:Given you seem to think reducing taxes and increasing social welfare is an appropriate way to deal with what's going on I'm at a loss to know what to say.

[mypost]

The emphasis should be on job creation and stimulating the economy. Tax increases are not going to stimulate the economy and will cut jobs.

With respect to the training that the government are so fond of, you can do all the training you like, but if there is no job at the end of it, or the economy hasn't picked up by then in order for someone to find a job, the training is practically useless, and all it succeeds in doing is waste more money.

[John83]

You know what else is not going to stimulate the economy? National bankruptcy.

[mypost]

Something else that doesn't stimulate the economy is scaremongering.

We know the position we're in, but it's important not to blow it out of all proportion. We are not bankrupt, nor are we needing the IMF. We may need it in the future, but you don't go from growth to bankrupt over 6 months, it takes several years to get from one end of the scale to the other. That was the case in the boom, and is the case now as well.

Was impressed with Labour's suggestions last night, but with the government focussing on training than stimulating, little can be done about the situation until Labour get FF out.

Which is still 3 years away. :o

[Fr Damo]

We know the position we're in, but it's important not to blow it out of all proportion. We are not bankrupt, nor are we needing the IMF. We may need it in the future, but you don't go from growth to bankrupt over 6 months, it takes several years to get from one end of the scale to the other. That was the case in the boom, and is the case now as well.


we don't know where we are because we are being drip fed by the Government information that is historical and not reflective of the true picture. (the Government themselves say they only look at Tax take @ month end!!) We also have been in negitive growth now for about 12 months, it's just we needed two conseqitive quarters before they clowns would admit it. Ulster bank reckon we are looking at -8% this year, Alan Ahern says wages and other income need to fall 10% to confirm a depression so we still have a bit to go. I for one am for direct tax hikes (short term) vat reduction to 20% and keep it there and a natural cul of the public sector. We have to get back to competitive manufacturing again, fast, though this will take 3 -5 years provided the rest of the world picks up. I would also use some of the pension reserve where ever necessary, & have courage in our conviction and pay it back to future generations at a rate just less than the current rate it costs to borrow. My point here is we are paying over the odds on the money markets for cash, we should use or own and pay it back as we would a normal creditor (i think they call it IIR in leaving cert pass accountancy!)

[OneRedArmy]

We know the position we're inI really don't think we do. At least with any certainty.

Unfortunately the key decision makers in this country (in Government and in businesses), are by and large, not at the races intellectually and are really struggling to keep up.

Obviously there are exceptions but having got into the same problem in the same way as many other countries, we're setting ourselves apart in how we are dealing with it. And not in a good way.

I do agree that job creation is important, but I see Governments role in that as more medium-long term (at least as long as its private sector job creation we are talking about) and in relation to taxes, income tax levels have very little impact on job creation (obviously corporation tax is very relevant).

[pete]

I think when the government talks about training they ony see the amount of money spent & take no account of whether the training is relevant. The fact that this has largely been outsourced to FAS with no oversight seems to back that up.

While tax increases are required I think the government also need to do something to encourage investment & jobs creation. Cutting CGT, Employers PRSI or some encentive to employ new staff might help. Tacx breaks for property developers to build more will not help.

[mypost]

in relation to taxes, income tax levels have very little impact on job creation (obviously corporation tax is very relevant).

They don't have a direct impact on job creation, but do have in terms of revenue.

Tax increases = less disposable income = less money for people to spend = less revenue for the government. Less money to spend = less products sold = less income for employers = job losses = no new jobs created. Then the cycle goes round and round and round.

Tax increases do nothing whatsoever for stimulating economies. Training programmes are useless if the trainees can't get jobs as a result.

[OneRedArmy]

Tax increases = less disposable income = less money for people to spend = less revenue for the government. 1) The drop in spending that reduces indirect taxation is offset (to whatever extent) by the extra income tax the government collect.
2) In a liquidity trap (as we are now) the inescapable fact is that people would save the money that would have been paid in income tax in any case, ergo increasing direct taxation is the only option to raise the overall tax take.


Tax increases do nothing whatsoever for stimulating economies. Agreed, but it this case the negative effect is the least worst option.

Unless you can come up with an economic argument that backs up your point there's nowhere else this argument can go.

[pete]

A drop in VAT rates would be the most pointless change as retailers will just put into their back pockets.

[dahamsta]

Depends how far you drop them. In the UK retailers in some markets - cars is one example - have decided to use the low VAT rate as a selling point, by offering products with "no VAT". That is, they're discounting by the VAT rate.

I don't know how successful it is, but it's a nice sales pitch anyway.

adam

[Fr Damo]

A drop in VAT rates would be the most pointless change as retailers will just put into their back pockets.

And what is wrong with that with so many going out of business and letting people go? They could choose to pass it on though 1.5% would mean nack all to the consumer or leave prices the same and make a few extra bob which was where I was coming from. (i am not in retail trade btw) 21.5% is simply to high.

[Macy]

The fact that this has largely been outsourced to FAS with no oversight seems to back that up.
Eh, why wouldn't they leave it with their Training authority? Experience suggests it's better for this Government, to keep it's grubby mits out of direct control (Political interference is one the problems in many semi states, not the solution!)

[pete]

Eh, why wouldn't they leave it with their Training authority? Experience suggests it's better for this Government, to keep it's grubby mits out of direct control (Political interference is one the problems in many semi states, not the solution!)

Just saying there was clearly no oversight in how the top boyos in FAS spent their money. Same could be said for many other semi state bodies. It doesn't take away from the work FAS people do there should be joined up thinking i.e. government policy should be linked to training policies.

[Macy]

Just saying there was clearly no oversight in how the top boyos in FAS spent their money.
Because they were, and still are politically bullet proof due to how connected they are.

[pete]

Because they were, and still are politically bullet proof due to how connected they are.

True.

[mypost]

Next figures out at 11 o'clock. Expect another 20-25k added on the scrapheap.

[bennocelt]

should be be betting on this?:)

2/5 it will hit 13% by the end of the year?

[Battery Rover]

Could we hit 400k today?

[Fr Damo]

Don't think so. But can I ask how this example is represtented in the employment/unemployment figures?

10000 People in a town. 5000 are working, 2000 unemployed and 3000 in school,college,OAP etc. On April 6th 2009 three companies who collectivelly employ 2000 people go on short time, three day which becomes one week in two for paid employment. This means there is only out putof 1000 people for the duration of short time in those 3 companies. How is the other 1000 recoreded in the unemployment figures?

[Battery Rover]

UP 20,000

Total Now 372,800

With Dell almost ready to start laying off and the impact on the surrounding area we could see the biggest monthly rise in history soon.

Spoke to a guy from Limerick yesterday and he told me that Dell was worth over 50k a year to him alone without the money he receives from suppliers to Dell and he is only a small opeartor with 3 employees

[Fr Damo]

I don;t disagree but it can't get much worse surely. 1000 people a day? over the next two months would mean about 420,000 unemployed by half year. Surely our public service need a certain level of employment in the economy to satisfy their wants and needs! February was me worst month in business, March up about 35% on Feb and down only 6% on last March.

Just heard Eammon Keane on Newstalk explain that unemployment figures represent all those getting assistance i.e short time etc, this is my question above answered.

[Fr Damo]

[FONT=TimesNewRoman-Bold][SIZE=2][LEFT]The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment.
It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance. Unemployment is measured
[SIZE=2][FONT=TimesNewRoman]by the Quarterly National Household Survey and the latest seasonally adjusted

Got this off the CSO

[mypost]

That shouldn't deflect from the seriousness of the situation. Most of those people simply have no work at all.

It's 5 weeks til the next figures, so an extra week, so at current rates, you're looking at 395,000 on 6 May. That's before the figures at Dell, SR Technics, and Dublin Bus are taken into account.

The government's commitment to salvaging jobs, is to say, there is little chance of a fall in the coming months. Mon dieu!! :eek:

Lazy. Clueless. Incompetent. Ineffective.

[Fr Damo]

That shouldn't deflect from the seriousness of the situation.[quote]



I agree 100% obviously. Heard a chap on RTE with Sean O Rourke at lunch time, Dr/Prof Fred ??(don't remember his surname, English Gentleman). He reckons we are in the sh*t big time becuase of the policy's being set out currently. Said we should be taxing land but George Lee and himself disagreed 100% on the best way out of this. What is interesting is this guy is doing a lecture in Trinity tomorrow i think - and in truth i think he was saving his analysis / solution till then. Would go if I lived in the Pale.

[OneRedArmy]

[QUOTE]


I agree 100% obviously. Heard a chap on RTE with Sean O Rourke at lunch time, Dr/Prof Fred ??(don't remember his surname, English Gentleman). He reckons we are in the sh*t big time becuase of the policy's being set out currently. Said we should be taxing land but George Lee and himself disagreed 100% on the best way out of this. What is interesting is this guy is doing a lecture in Trinity tomorrow i think - and in truth i think he was saving his analysis / solution till then. Would go if I lived in the Pale.He deserves listening to if only because he wrote a book 18 months ago which predicted fairly accurately what has played out since then.

However I don't see a property tax as anything near a silver bullet.

[pete]

Government to tackle welfare fraud (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0406/breaking23.htm)



Photo identification is to be required for those collecting social welfare payments after over a tenth of claims that were investigated were found to be bogus.

Fraud investigations in eight areas of the State that began in March saw more than 2,200 claimants examined, and of those 275 have had their claims suspended and are no longer entitled to claim a benefit, or are under continuing investigation.


Crazy that Photo ID was not required up to now.

Also ID will not stop someone flying in from abroad to collect cheque & flying back on same day.

Will such a massive budget you would think anti-fraud measures would be a lot better. If 10% fraud was common across the system would be a huge sum of money.

[Macy]

I've no problem with it, and whilst they're at it, all social welfare should have to be collected in person using the same system. It keeps the post offices open, and whilst it would be inconvenient for some it would make it harder to abuse the system.

However, lest we forget, who was in power when all these payments went direct without face to face contact, in order to save money? :rolleyes:

[pete]

Any one entitled to job seekers allowance should be paid it as that is what we all pay PRSI for but fraud should removed.

I remember claiming for couple of months at tail end of 2004 & aside from initial application I never had to collect anything in person as was deposited in my account every week.

I always wondered that if I did not tell them how long it would have taken them to discover I had a job & didn't need the payment anymore.

For initial application the welfare office not a nice visit. The ignorance from the staff towards others was staggering especially to not-Irish people.

[mypost]

I remember claiming for couple of months at tail end of 2004 & aside from initial application I never had to collect anything in person as was deposited in my account every week.

I always wondered that if I did not tell them how long it would have taken them to discover I had a job & didn't need the payment anymore.

When they got your tax returns after your first payment, so you have to go to them in person and tell them.

Photo ID has always been required, as you need a passport or driving licence with your application.

The problem now, is there is too much bureaucracy holding up the processing of claims. If you live at home, it's not enough to bring utility bills, you need a "parents note" as well. Why?? :confused:

[Macy]

I remember claiming for couple of months at tail end of 2004 & aside from initial application I never had to collect anything in person as was deposited in my account every week.
If people had to go in person every week to collect their money, it would have to be less viable for (albeit probably overstated) foreign fraudsters to cheat the system. As with previous recessions, I'd say people claiming while working in the black economy is more of an issue.


The problem now, is there is too much bureaucracy holding up the processing of claims. If you live at home, it's not enough to bring utility bills, you need a "parents note" as well. Why??
Presumably the utility bill is to prove residence. If you're not on that I don't see why it's an issue to ask the person listed whether you're resident or not? Delays are only going to get worse with the stupid across the board recruitment embargo.

[mypost]

Presumably the utility bill is to prove residence. If you're not on that I don't see why it's an issue to ask the person listed whether you're resident or not? Delays are only going to get worse with the stupid across the board recruitment embargo.

You need the utility bill, (within 3 months :rolleyes:) a parents note, and your bank statement, along with everything else.

That and the recruitment embargo, is what's taking claims up to 14 weeks to process. There has been little if any, new recruits inspecting claims. They've been mostly re-directed from other duties.