Unemployment

[GavinZac]

If you have been working & hae earned your "stamps" you can probably "join" easily enough. Without stamps think needs to be means tested?

:confused:

I've worked for about 7 years, stopped this year for the masters. Not sure what the situation with uni is though, some people have said we're not technically free until september.

[gilberto_eire]

I've worked for about 7 years, stopped this year for the masters. Not sure what the situation with uni is though, some people have said we're not technically free until september.

I'm pretty sure that does'nt matter, are you available for full-time work?, if so then your are entitled to social welfare, it would be differant if you were in between years in college, but if you are fully finished you are elgiable!

[mypost]

Register up by 19,000 today. 217k overall, 5.7%

Based on those figures, it looks as though we're heading for 300k by Christmas.

[pete]

Register up by 19,000 today. 217k overall, 5.7%

Based on those figures, it looks as though we're heading for 300k by Christmas.

is that 19k in last month or quarter?

Register always goes up a bit in the summer due to students but not by 19k.

[mypost]

19k this month. 54k in the last 12 months.

Revised total of 221k overall. Those queues are getting longer again, folks.

[SMorgan]

19k this month. 54k in the last 12 months.

Revised total of 221k overall. Those queues are getting longer again, folks.

That's an incredible figure for one month. During the 1986 recession the max monthly figure was 16k. Also remember that there would have been workers that lost their jobs but didn't go on the live register and just upped and left the country instead, whether to go back home or seek work elsewhere.

A very worrying situation. This on top of the shortfall in the tax take its been a very bad week. Just on the tax take, the Government has said that the shortfall was €1.5b for six months therefore the expected shortfall for the year is €3b. I'd be very surprised if the shortfall would be only €3b. Its far to simplistic to say that because the shortfall was €1.5b for the first 6 months then it will be €1.5b for the next 6 months. I reckon we're heading to a 4b - 5b shortfall. It looks to me that the economy is fcuked for the foreseeable future.

But still, as FF are saying, let’s talk ourselves out of the recession. Unfortunately its going to take a bit more than that.

[mypost]

A very worrying situation.

But still, as FF are saying, let’s talk ourselves out of the recession. Unfortunately its going to take a bit more than that.

The argument from the government is that it's not the 80's. Jaysus, must have got a calendar to work that out. :rolleyes:

The point is, if we're not careful, that's what we're heading back to. The next figures are released in 4 weeks time. This is a crisis, and the government's response is to deal with and tackle it, of course.

Or rather not. An Irish problem requires an Irish solution. While the queues grow, and figures soar, TD's prepare to take a 11-week break from Thursday. :rolleyes:

[OneRedArmy]

The argument from the government is that it's not the 80's. Jaysus, must have got a calendar to work that out. :rolleyes:

The point is, if we're not careful, that's what we're heading back to. The next figures are released in 4 weeks time. This is a crisis, and the government's response is to deal with and tackle it, of course.

Or rather not. An Irish problem requires an Irish solution. While the queues grow, and figures soar, TD's prepare to take a 11-week break from Thursday. :rolleyes:1) We aren't heading back to the 80's. Whilst unemployment is increasing at a worrying rate, by almost every other metric, we are considerably better off.

2) What would you suggest the Government do? Just like creating the Celtic Tiger, the recession didn't come about overnight and can't be fixed in the short-term. Any decisions the Government take now (e.g. protecting infrastructure spend, increasing tax breaks and grants for job creation) will only bear fruit in the medium term. These decisions should have been taken years ago instead of fuelling the property boom.

In any case, leaving aside the poor decision making of the last few Governments, the credit crunch, oil and food price inflation are a global phenomena outside our control.

[SMorgan]

In any case, leaving aside the poor decision making of the last few Governments, the credit crunch, oil and food price inflation are a global phenomena outside our control.

Of course there are outside factors, just as there are for the likes of the UK and Germany, but with the possible exception of Spain, no other EU country is experiencing the collapse that Ireland is going through. Throughout the boom years the government gave no recognition to how Ireland was benefiting from global conditions and they steadfastly insisted that the boom was entirely due to their stewardship of the economy. Now that we have a recession its all apparently due to outside factors.

They can't have it both ways.

[OneRedArmy]

Of course there are outside factors, just as there are for the likes of the UK and Germany, but with the possible exception of Spain, no other EU country is experiencing the collapse that Ireland is going through. Throughout the boom years the government gave no recognition to how Ireland was benefiting from global conditions and they steadfastly insisted that the boom was entirely due to their stewardship of the economy. Now that we have a recession its all apparently due to outside factors.

They can't have it both ways.I agree completely.

My point was that now we are in the crap, there's no easy, or at least no quick way out of it.

But the hilarity of people like Conor Lenihan trying to put all the blame on "de credit crunch" is brilliant.

[pete]

It is stupid for the government to claim this is all external factors (I am sure I heard Lenihan say that?) but obviously as a small open economy with rise & fall with global economy.

Suggesting we back at 1980 style recession is idiotic in the extreme. We are predicted to top 7% unemployment which is a long way off 20%. We might have a lot of people signing on now but we also probably working off double the work force.

I think it is interesting that the government now says they will reduce deficit by making savings to existing projects. Why could they not make these savings when they were throwing billions at every other problem.

I don't have any confidence the government can stop thew slide. Might be best they sat out of this one as will probably make it worse.

Any one else think the Department of Finance are hopeless at estimates? When we had budget surpluses they regularly misses estimates by billions. It also seems like Dept of Finance & government action only started post ESRI report - could they not see reduced tax revenue themselves?

[OneRedArmy]

Great article in one of yesterdays papers expressing surprise that Central Bank Governor John Hurley voted for an interest rate rise in the last ECB meeting.

Then mentioned in the body of the article that ECB board members are specifically required to ignore national interest and vote for the collective interest of the Euro-zone members.

Almost as funny as the editor of some Irish Property magazine which has gone into receivership expressing surprise that publishers "don't want to touch anything with property in the name"..... Well I never.

Anyway, getting back to the topic, whilst the Government can't affect things in the short-term, the decisions they make in the next few months will define how long and how deep the recession lasts and how well positioned we will be to take advantage of any recovery.

I can't say I have much confidence they'll make the right calls.

[beautifulrock]

I can't say I have much confidence they'll make the right calls.

Good point but does anyone on here or in the rags we call newspapers think about putting up solutions instead of problems. The problems are easy to see. The solutions are the difficult part but as yet I have not seen a sensible comment other than a "cutback in public spending".

[monutdfc]

This reminds me of the (open?) goal that Enda Kenny declined to shoot into in the leaders' debate before the last election. Bertie stated how they had reacted after September 11 to keep the economy on course; it was a simple question Enda had to ask - how? What specifically did they do to react? Maybe Bertie would have had a good answer, facts he could point to, maybe not - but I wanted the question to be asked.
It was people's faith in FF's stewardship of the economy that won the election.

[Reality Bites]

I fear that neither Cowen or Lenihan are men of vision, I think Cowen is just plain cautious his diddering over the stamp duty issue in recents budgets is a case in point, Lenihan actually scared me with his self-pitying remarks about how unfortunate he was to be in charge during the onset of recession -time will tell but these are ominous portents!:(

[pete]

I fear that neither Cowen or Lenihan are men of vision, I think Cowen is just plain cautious his diddering over the stamp duty issue in recents budgets is a case in point, Lenihan actually scared me with his self-pitying remarks about how unfortunate he was to be in charge during the onset of recession -time will tell but these are ominous portents!:(

Ahern for all his strengths could hardly be described as a man of vision. One of his biggest faults was dithering & obsession with consensus. However in these times can be as much about what you say against what you do & Ahern would get high marks in that department.

[dahamsta]

Ye gods, a post by pete in CA that I (mostly) agree with! ;)


It is stupid for the government to claim this is all external factors (I am sure I heard Lenihan say that?) but obviously as a small open economy with rise & fall with global economy.

Suggesting we back at 1980 style recession is idiotic in the extreme. We are predicted to top 7% unemployment which is a long way off 20%. We might have a lot of people signing on now but we also probably working off double the work force.

I think it is interesting that the government now says they will reduce deficit by making savings to existing projects. Why could they not make these savings when they were throwing billions at every other problem.

I don't have any confidence the government can stop thew slide. Might be best they sat out of this one as will probably make it worse.

Any one else think the Department of Finance are hopeless at estimates? When we had budget surpluses they regularly misses estimates by billions. It also seems like Dept of Finance & government action only started post ESRI report - could they not see reduced tax revenue themselves?

[mypost]

Suggesting we back at 1980 style recession is idiotic in the extreme.

It isn't yet, but this is just the first year of it. That's where we're heading.


We are predicted to top 7% unemployment which is a long way off 20%. We might have a lot of people signing on now but we also probably working off double the work force.

So 7% is not a crisis then?? :confused: :rolleyes:

There is, sorry was, sorry has been an increase in the workforce, but they're been let go. Then there's workers employed from pre-boom times also let go as long-established companies re-locate/close. Then there's high inflation, and high salaries, which leads to more job losses. We're now out of the "full employment" category.

There are approximately 20 workdays in every month. Last month, 19,000 jobs were lost. Atm, there are almost 1,000 jobs lost every day. At what point does the rapidly deteriorating situation become a crisis??:confused:

[OneRedArmy]

It isn't yet, but this is just the first year of it. That's where we're heading.



So 7% is not a crisis then?? :confused: :rolleyes:

There is, sorry was, sorry has been an increase in the workforce, but they're been let go. Then there's workers employed from pre-boom times also let go as long-established companies re-locate/close. Then there's high inflation, and high salaries, which leads to more job losses. We're now out of the "full employment" category.

There are approximately 20 workdays in every month. Last month, 19,000 jobs were lost. Atm, there are almost 1,000 jobs lost every day. At what point does the rapidly deteriorating situation become a crisis??:confused:I'm not sure why I'm responding as you seem unwilling to accept that the only thing the situation now and in the 80s have in common is high unemployment.

One key difference is that many of those now not in employment have earned a bucketload of money over the last 10 years. I'm referring particularly to anyone involved in construction. Yes, its a sweeping generalisation, yes, its not true in all cases but compared with the 80's when the unemployed were long term unemployed, with no savings, no property and no future in Ireland, there's a hell of a difference.

[pete]

So 7% is not a crisis then?? :confused: :rolleyes:


It should be pointed out that we are not at 7% yet & massive difference to 15-20%. I think some one mentioned in other thread that the 1980s really were a depression whereas it is likely we will have a 1-2 year (2 years seems to the way these cycles go) recession this time.

I still think it is debatable if it is a crisis. I get the impression that unemployment is mainly construction lead (correct me if I am wrong) but with obvious knock on affects on public finances. With any construction dip/crash/drop it has to hit a bottom eventually. The rising cost of money (mortgages) & energy (oil) is largely out of our control in the short term.

While they have not released the details yet seems the only government response is to cut spending (Health & Education to be left alone) in effort to reduce loses & hope the global tide rises in a couple of years. Public debt is very low (22.8% of GDP 2006 est.) by comparison to other countries (Germany 66.8% 2006 est) so can afford to borrow for a while.

[ruben_sosa]

if we can get to January 2009 without Bush starting another war then i think there'll be a quick recovery in confidence in 2010, maybe not to pre-2007 levels but at least a stabilising of stock and credit markets which have suffered from zero leadership in the White House as the lame duck sees out his last year of failure. The reason for ireland's woes are the same as everyone else - high interest rates. the reason for high interest rates is high inflation, the reason for high inflation is the high price of oil, and the reason for the high price of oil is Bush threatening a war with Iran since 2004/2005 so nobody knows whether there'll be a real oil crisis and a new middle east war... that's why speculators are pushing the price up, and with good reason. Until America stops threatening to start world war 3 with 80 million Persians, there'll be no economic recovery.

[jebus]

Is there two Ruben Sosa's now? Cause this guy is far more coherant than his Amy Winehouse loving counterpart*

Plus he's join date and post count are different, but it was mostly the reasoned points that gave it away :0

[pete]

if we can get to January 2009 without Bush starting another war then i think there'll be a quick recovery in confidence in 2010,.

Must get me some Haliburton shares as insurance policy. :p

[mypost]

It should be pointed out that we are not at 7% yet & massive difference to 15-20%. I think some one mentioned in other thread that the 1980s really were a depression whereas it is likely we will have a 1-2 year (2 years seems to the way these cycles go) recession this time.

I still think it is debatable if it is a crisis. I get the impression that unemployment is mainly construction lead (correct me if I am wrong)

The recession is already here for the past 12 months, and may well be another 5 years before it begins to level off. Reports indicate that the losses last month were equally split between men and women. Relatively few women work in construction. The layoffs are down to numerous factors across all sectors of the economy, not restricted to property and construction. That's a flag of convenience for those who don't realise how stark the situation is.

[dahamsta]

mypost, please go to Wikipedia or another reference and research recession before you make statements in here. In particular the generally accepted definition of the word.

[ruben_sosa]

Is there two Ruben Sosa's now? Cause this guy is far more coherant than his Amy Winehouse loving counterpart*

Plus he's join date and post count are different, but it was mostly the reasoned points that gave it away :0


yes there's two. I registered the name a long time ago, not sure who the blow-in is, but his location is/was given as "downtown bogota" which isn't even in Ruben Sosa's country of birth, Uruguay. :confused:

[OneRedArmy]

The recession is already here for the past 12 months, and may well be another 5 years before it begins to level off. Reports indicate that the losses last month were equally split between men and women. Relatively few women work in construction. The layoffs are down to numerous factors across all sectors of the economy, not restricted to property and construction. That's a flag of convenience for those who don't realise how stark the situation is.A lot of the job losses are property related, given that a significant part of our economy was property driven. E.g. if a catering business that supplies builders with breakfast rolls closes down and lays people off due to a drop in customers caused by less building work, then this is clearly indirectly a result of the property downturn. Likewise, estate agents and many other property service companies have been hit, all of which employ women. So only counting the number of builders claiming unemployment significantly underestimates the impact the property slowdown is having.

Whilst the competitiveness of export businesses has been repeatedly dented over the past 5 years due to the increasing cost base in Ireland and exchange rates, this isn't a recent phenomena. There have been ongoing layoffs for the last few years in export led businesses. This therefore doesn't explain the rise in unemployment in the last 6 months.

[GavinZac]

Last month, 19,000 jobs were lost. Atm, there are almost 1,000 jobs lost every day.Was it 19k jobs lost, or did 19k more people sign on? Do you know what month it was?

[pete]

Was it 19k jobs lost, or did 19k more people sign on? Do you know what month it was?

I suspect 19k signed on? Some would be jobs lost but not all them.

[GavinZac]

I suspect 19k signed on? Some would be jobs lost but not all them.
A very large would be part of the 60,000 finishing their leaving and the countless thousands finishing uni like myself. There isn't a whole lot of anything going this month so not very much option to do much else. Usually figures given for the summer are "seasonally adjusted" before people go making points about them.

[mypost]

The 19k is not a one-off seasonal thing this time. Some are students signing on, some are construction workers, some are retail, some are admin, some are manufacturing personnel, and others. There is a slight increase in unemployment during the summer months, but it tends to be a phase rather than a trend of breaking records as it is now.

When you see governments urging wage restraint, and announcing cutbacks in mid-summer (effectively an emergency mini-budget), you know the economy is in trouble.

[GavinZac]

The 19k is not a one-off seasonal thing this time. Some are students signing on, some are construction workers, some are retail, some are admin, some are manufacturing personnel, and others. There is a slight increase in unemployment during the summer months, but it tends to be a phase rather than a trend of breaking records as it is now.

When you see governments urging wage restraint, and announcing cutbacks in mid-summer (effectively an emergency mini-budget), you know the economy is in trouble.

Obviously when you have job losses and uni leavers combined you're going to have high figures. "record breaking" it is not, unless you consider "highest in the last few years" a record.

Our economy is hurting, just like everyone else's that was dependent upon the USA. I very much doubt it has come as a shock and I'm pretty certain it was one of the issues in last year's election.

[monutdfc]

The figures are all seasonally-adjusted.
The seasonally-adjusted increase was 10k whilst the actual increase was 19k.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0705/1215207406471.html

Between May and June there was a rise of 19,055 claimants, or 10,100 seasonally-adjusted, and the year from June 2007 to June 2008 showed a rise of 54,448 or 54,400 seasonally-adjusted.

[mypost]

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/worrying-42pc-surge-in-young-signing--on-the-dole-1432459.html

[Reality Bites]

The Big Question now is, are Brian Cowen and Brian Lenihan out of their depth to deal with an economic crisis, Cowen was an incompetent Minister of Finance pouring money into Public Spending backed-up by unsustainable property taxes all at the behest of Bertie , I am not sure yet if Lenihan knows what day of the week it is:eek:

[pete]

Under the Back to Education Allowance Scheme (BTEA), unemployed persons aged 18-25, who have been signing on the Live Register for more than six months, will be identified and encouraged to gain additional skills and qualifications, according to the minister.

"Officials across the country will spend the summer months identifying young people in their regions who would be eligible to go into an appropriate education or training schemes in the autumn, in order to up-skill and enable them to improve their chances in the jobs market," said the minister.

Government solution to reducing live register. Education budget increases same amount social welfare decreases?



Meanwhile, new figures show that more than 38,000 of the 221,000 people on the live register are from abroad.

According to reports at the weekend 15,500 claimants are from the 10 accession states that joined the EU in 2004 and half of them are from Poland.

Another 10,000 are from other overseas countries such as Africa, America and Australia and 2,000 are from the rest of the EU. On the basis of each unemployed person costing the state an average of €11,000 a year, the non-Irish claimants would cost the exchequer about €420m in a full year.


Polish figure seems low enough but equal number from the other accession states is high based on their relatively low populations. Would be surprised if Polish builders stayed in Ireland on the dole as would appear to be bit of boom at home.

[Reality Bites]

I suspect this Friday is goind to be quiet painful in Construction industry - with many tradesmen being told not to come back after the builders holidays!

[dahamsta]

Hadn't thought of that. Going by the house prices I was seeing in a troll through DAFT yesterday, probably an awful lot. There's plenty of incredible differences there, but one in particular went from 300k last year to 200k this year. I mean that's just funny. :)

adam

[John83]

I suspect this Friday is goind to be quiet painful in Construction industry - with many tradesmen being told not to come back after the builders holidays!
Yes, I know one company letting a large proportion of their staff go. They told them about a month ago.

[Billsthoughts]

surprised nobody mentioned the Davys job losses.50 staff from private clients and 25 from elsewhere. 3per cent (afair) pay cuts for anyone on over 50 grand.used to work there myself and that is a large chunk of private client staff. looking for people to take voluntary redundancies - the equivalent of winning the lotto about a year ago as you were guaranteed to walk into another job. I wonder how many will take it under current climate.:(

[mypost]

Ms. Callen must have had SFA to do yesterday.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0715/economy.html

Ireland has "lost the plot" apparantly. More like she's lost it.

Unbelievable!! :eek::mad:

[Reality Bites]

Working in around Construction, we are all expecting one of the Big 5 contractors to fall very shortly - I think when this happen and It will according to strong rumours we really will know the game is up:(

[pete]

Ms. Callen must have had SFA to do yesterday.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0715/economy.html

Ireland has "lost the plot" apparently. More like she's lost it.


From a PR point of view a stupid thing to say as whether it is good or not no chance of happening.

The bigger debate that has started is the public sector pay freeze. How can the government cut public spending by 3% at the same time increasing pay in that sector. Numbers don't add up.

[Macy]

From a PR point of view a stupid thing to say as whether it is good or not no chance of happening.
They fought against an increased Labour Inspectorate, and after that failed they're trying to get rid of the minimum wage. The cynic in me would wonder are they trying to protect their members by regularising the staff that they are already exploiting by undercutting the minimum wage?

Everyone knows it goes on, so the employers organisations try to block the development of a system that will uncover the law breakers. When that fails, they try to remove the law that they are breaking.


The bigger debate that has started is the public sector pay freeze. How can the government cut public spending by 3% at the same time increasing pay in that sector. Numbers don't add up.
Reduce staff numbers - it's a roundabout way of introducing an embargo. Unfortunately, the ones that suffer because of this are the Clerical Levels who aren't the high paid in the Civil Service

[OneRedArmy]

Reduce staff numbers - it's a roundabout way of introducing an embargo. Unfortunately, the ones that suffer because of this are the Clerical Levels who aren't the high paid in the Civil Service
Thats a valid point.

Read in one of the Sunday papers that the most senior civil servants (those on E100k+) pretty much all got a significant bonus for "exceptional performance", and amusingly, all got pretty much the same amount.

So if they are all performing at the same level, how exceptional is it?:confused:

[Reality Bites]

Black Friday today in Construction Industry (eve of Builders Holidays) Alot of workers packing there bags for good from a few different sites, with these weekly trends now growing in both Trades and profession, I know of a few professional consultants Architect Engineers and QS that have shed staff -is there any real hope of getting work in this sector after redundancy in forseeable future?

[seanfhear]

I dont mind being unemployed but who or what is going to finance the lifestyle that I aspire to.

[Pauro 76]

Not good times over here either. Just been let go temporarily from my graphic design job. I havent been released, just have no idea when i'm back if things pick up. Not getting paid for time off either. Gutted as temping agencies are dead right now too and jobs seem very thin on the ground too. :(

[GavinZac]

Not good times over here either. Just been let go temporarily from my graphic design job. I havent been released, just have no idea when i'm back if things pick up. Not getting paid for time off either. Gutted as temping agencies are dead right now too and jobs seem very thin on the ground too. :(

If you're at a loose end and can do some web-based design, or even just logos and such, keep an eye on forums like sitepoint or (cant remember the exact name) webmaster world. there'll often be 'contracts tendered' where people ask for such and such, and either ask for estimates or issue a figure and go with the first person to match it. It can go anything for €20 to €500 and upwards so enough to keep yourself fed if you can commit some time to it.

I've had a pretty positive interview and hopefully could be employed again by the end of this week. Things not all bad! I think the 'churn' of staff is still going on as it was in the past but not always as voluntary as it was!

[Pauro 76]

If you're at a loose end and can do some web-based design, or even just logos and such, keep an eye on forums like sitepoint or (cant remember the exact name) webmaster world. there'll often be 'contracts tendered' where people ask for such and such, and either ask for estimates or issue a figure and go with the first person to match it. It can go anything for €20 to €500 and upwards so enough to keep yourself fed if you can commit some time to it.

I've had a pretty positive interview and hopefully could be employed again by the end of this week. Things not all bad! I think the 'churn' of staff is still going on as it was in the past but not always as voluntary as it was!

That's a good idea. I've just installed Adobe CS3 on my Mac so i now have the tools. Also going to email companies for work too. it's actually the second time ive had to leave my work temporarily because of a slump. First time round i was called back two weeks later and did some temping work to tide myself over. the problem is, temping work is dead too. I'll have a look at that mate, cheers! If you can email some links to me, id very much appreciate it.