World Ranking

[tricky_colour]

tricky, those are the rankings from last October. This is the correct link: http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/
We're still at 31 (same as in May - http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/rank=286/index.html ).
USA dropped one to 25

North have dropped two to 29
Scotland have dropped eight to 42
Wales up three to 18
England up one to 12

Oops! Sorry about that, guess it did seem too good to be true. I obviously never checked the date, Google normally links to the up to date rankings.

[colonelwest]

FIFA going with the ELO rankings going forward, that's Wales plans screwed so!

http://www.espn.co.uk/football/fifa-world-cup/story/3522329/fifa-world-ranking-gets-overhaul-to-stop-manipulation-for-draw-seedings?src=com

[pineapple stu]

Don't tell Gather Round! :p

[Gather round]

Morning Stu, morning everyone. Fellow NI stalwart Ealing Green got in first with the news ;)

Just renewed my Euro 20 qualifying season ticket actually, hope springs eternal

[tricky_colour]

FIFA going with the ELO rankings going forward, that's Wales plans screwed so!

http://www.espn.co.uk/football/fifa-world-cup/story/3522329/fifa-world-ranking-gets-overhaul-to-stop-manipulation-for-draw-seedings?src=com


The present system uses an average score based over a five-year period. However, as friendlies are worth significantly fewer points than competitive games simply playing them is guaranteed to drag down a nation's average score.
Some countries have actively avoided playing friendlies to protect their average score, while other teams -- such as England, Italy and Spain -- consistently play more friendlies and see their score fall.
It still relies on the nations that benefit having strong competitive records, but because of it Switzerland were seeded at the last World Cup finals (http://www.espn.co.uk/football/international-friendly/story/2513448/romania-wales-to-enter-fifa-ranking-top-10), Wales seeded for European World Cup qualifying, and Poland seeded for the 2018 group-stage draw (http://www.espn.co.uk/football/fifa-world-cup/story/3161369/poland-set-to-be-shock-seeds-in-decembers-world-cup-finals-draw).
"It gives, I think, some more weight to official matches and so on but also takes away some of these imbalances we had before," Infantino said. "I hope it will be a little less subject to criticism."



We play quite a few friendlies, so maybe that will help us, I kind of doubt it though. We lost 5 out of the last 8 friendlies.

On the bright side we beat the USA and 7th ranked France could only manage a draw, which ranks us about 6th my calculations. :)

[backstothewall]

FIFA going with the ELO rankings going forward, that's Wales plans screwed so!

http://www.espn.co.uk/football/fifa-world-cup/story/3522329/fifa-world-ranking-gets-overhaul-to-stop-manipulation-for-draw-seedings?src=com

Blue Sky thinking needed in the future

[NeverFeltBetter]

29th in the first rankings under the new system: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2018/0816/985444-ireland-rise-in-latest-fifa-rankings/

NI 27th. France top, big drop for Germany,

[Fixer82]

Blue Sky thinking needed in the future

These ranking are a Living Thing. We need to get used them

[Eminence Grise]

They should be based on a head to head Showdown because All Over the World they cause so much Confusion. Still, when they're good, it's So Fine and feels like you've been given a Ticket to the Moon, and when they're bad you just got to Hold on Tight and hope for the best because that's The Way Life's Meant to Be. Generally, all I'm Wishing is that we're ahead of them Across the Border.

Fun ELO fact: in The Diary of Horace Wimp, the end segment is a chorus of 'Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Sunday' repeated. Jeff Lynne said Saturday is for football... Amen to that. Yes, I'm a nerd. But I'm a nerd with tickets for the Dublin gig later this year.:nerd:

[NeverFeltBetter]

Joint 29th: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2019/0404/1040628-ireland-move-inside-world-top-30-following-euro-wins/

[NeverFeltBetter]

47th today, with the biggest drop in points of anyone since the last calculation. Just ahead of the North, just behind Scotland.

[Baldoyler]

Not surprising. It does sound about right for where we are now. I would imagine we will drop further before we start climbing again.

[pineapple stu]

The slightly more scientific eloratings.net (https://www.eloratings.net/) has us in joint 53rd with Slovenia, but having suffered the biggest fall of any country in the past 12 months. The North have fallen almost as much as we have, as have Libya.

And yeah, a further drop to come before we start climbing again unfortunately.

[seanfhear]

Not surprising. It does sound about right for where we are now. I would imagine we will drop further before we start climbing again.
I am surprised we are that high.

[tetsujin1979]

At what point do results start contributing less to the points total? I think it's a five year window, so the games from 2016, and earlier, will be removed from the total soon, i.e. the wins against Italy at Euro 2016, and away to Austria. Unless results start improving, the draws and losses in the Nations League will start to dominate the rankings, and we'll drop even further.

[pineapple stu]

I think FIFA's change in 2018 means that there's no window as such any more. They changed to something closer to the Elo system, which effectively weights towards newer data, and I think statistically it's been shown that games played 100 games or more ago don't impact the current rating at all (ie if you take our 6-1 defeat against Germany and turn it into a 6-1 win, that would have had a big impact on our rating at the time, but if all the subsequent results were unchanged, we would still end up with the same current rating). And then games played between 50 and 100 games ago would only impact the current rating very slightly, etc

[Nesta99]

Couldnt find a dedicated thread. So we have earned the highest points of this window and we climb to 59th. If the FAI were to do an extensive strategic plan, where should the ranking target be, in what time scale. Whatever about knowing a bit on LoI and where we could be I am well off the pace in looing at FIFA rankings and having an informed opinion. Any nerds have some thoughts?

[elatedscum]

Couldnt find a dedicated thread. So we have earned the highest points of this window and we climb to 59th. If the FAI were to do an extensive strategic plan, where should the ranking target be, in what time scale. Whatever about knowing a bit on LoI and where we could be I am well off the pace in looing at FIFA rankings and having an informed opinion. Any nerds have some thoughts?

Our friendlies in general should be home against USA (14th in the world), Iran (20th), Ecuador (23rd), Australia (26th), Canada (27th), Panama (30th) or against a big scalp like we did against Belgium where a draw is doable. Stuff like that. In general, you get a tonne of points for continental competitions, so when we don't qualify for the euros or the world cup, we sink compared to teams that have qualified.

Switzerland got 4th in the world by not having friendlies to keep their average higher. Wales similarly gamed the system in the same way. But pretty sure they changed the system to fix that.

[elatedscum]

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/37556271/fifa-world-ranking-gets-overhaul-stop-manipulation-draw-seedings

[elatedscum]

key is home/away isn't factored in or margin of victory/defeat

[rebelmusic]

Looking at the numbers, if we win both playoffs we could see a pretty significant bump as I assume that would be worth around 30 points, and 48th places Is 30 points ahead of us.

That's assuming none of those countries climb much during their friendlies/playoffs in that window.

Looking at the all time ranking is painful...to think we were ranked 6th in the world at one point and then couldn't qualify for a euros 😂

[backstothewall]

Does anyone know how long a result is part of the ranking for? Presumably as every new set of results is added, there's usually another set from years ago dropping off?

I've been trying to find the information online but I can'rt find it.

[Nesta99]

4 seasons/period of a year. But its like a live table moreso than clubs. I get the whole not playing unnecessary games for a year prior to finals so averages up though changing. Ive started to take an interest again....dont know why it has to be so complex as recalculating the values of a game over past periods. Just award the pointsm let them remain static for x number of years and then they fall off, rather than this constant recalculation. Its like FIFA trying to keep someone in a job alway number crunching when they probably just bung results in to a spreadsheet and put the feet up.

Matches from the last 12 months: https://foot.ie/image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==
1.0
multiplier.
Matches from 12 to 24 months ago: https://foot.ie/image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==
0.5
multiplier.
Matches from 24 to 36 months ago: https://foot.ie/image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==
0.3
multiplier.
Remainder to 48 months at .2

[tetsujin1979]

Didn't they get caught out before when someone from the Faroe Islands pointed out they should have been ranked ahead of another country(possibly Wales), but only if you went to the fourth decimal place, when FIFA were rounding up to two places?

[Nesta99]

Hadnt heard it but if you are going to 4 decimal places its a stupid algorithm. Faroes would have been an incredible story, nig jumps in rankings in recent years, in the hunt with 1 to play behind the Czechs only their last game was against Croatia rather than Gibralter, if those fixtures were reversed...

[tetsujin1979]

Had to do some digging but I found it. Was only two decimal places
https://www.the42.ie/its-official-faroe-islands-are-better-than-wales-following-masters-students-investigative-work-175328-Jul2011/