World Ranking

[paul_oshea]

So did cape verde.

[geysir]

Gather Round insults the OWC, yet again.

It's Utopia not Ultonia

[davidatrb]

Here is how I think it is looking like for July for the seedings. Most teams have only one or two games to play so it probably wont look a whole bunch different. April's release is not as relevant there are alot of World Cup matches that will severely drop in importance by the time the July release rolls around.

http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/03/july-release.html

Wales are actually seriously close to making Pot 1! They have belgium to play, win that and I would imagine them in Pot 1.

http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/04/wales-ranking-points.html

We have two games left to improve our average England and Scotland. Link below is the rest of the games already played and ranking points earned with respect of July 2015 ranknig release..

http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/03/ireland-ranking-points.html

I did my best to get the ranking points and matches as accurate as possible but I'm sure I have some miscalcutaions there, or FIFA have calculated some points differently from I have.

[geysir]

Those predictions leave us stranded all alone, a well beaten 4th place in the Eur 2016 qual group.

[davidatrb]

Those predictions leave us stranded all alone, a well beaten 4th place in the Eur 2016 qual group.

Yes, we are stranded a little in the Rankings, but that will start to pick up. From July 2013 to July 2014 we only won 2 games from 12 (Kazakhstan and Latvia) - the importance of all these losses will start to fade in time. Since July 2014 we have already won 3 from 6, actually accrued more points than Scotland in that period despite them beating us.

So although the overall points make us look like a street behind Scotland, recent form seems to disagree.

Its a direct battle between Scotland and Ireland for the play off place in Euro Qualifying and I think it will be very close.

[BonnieShels]

Up to 62 in the latest rankings.

Would we win the Carling Nations Cup if held this year?
http://m.rte.ie/sport/soccer/international/2015/0409/692968-republic-and-north-rise-in-fifa-rankings/

[davidatrb]

England (now 14th) and Scotland (now 29th) up, thats good. We will get more ranking points when we beat them both in June.

[Bungle]

I was reading that UEFA are really pushing for Europe to get an extra place for 2018, so if they did Europe would have 14 plus Russia.

Unfortunately, Blatter is promising the sun, moon and stars to Africa and Asia to get re-elected so I can't see it happening. Personally, I think that all corners of the world should be represented, but Europe has too many good sides that doesn't qualify for the world cup, so if they had a system whereby each region got a certain amount of spots and then there were play-offs between regions to get the remaining few places. You could argue likewise that South America gets too many, but I disagree and would nearly feel that they could get another place, as their teams are of a very good standard and add to the world cup.

Let's say Europe's 14th team played off against other regions' worse placed team for the final place that might be the fairest way of doing things.

[Gather round]

Europe has too many good sides that doesn't qualify for the world cup

Hard to argue that given that so many of the European qualifiers were so mediocre in Brazil, surely?



so if they had a system whereby each region got a certain amount of spots and then there were play-offs between regions to get the remaining few places...Let's say Europe's 14th team played off against other regions' worse placed team for the final place that might be the fairest way of doing things

Last time the last two places were decided by play-offs including a team from each of North and South America, Asia and Oceania. I suppose you could add Europe and Africa to that list.

[bennocelt]

Hard to argue that given that so many of the European qualifiers were so mediocre in Brazil, surely?

.

I thought the African and Asian teams were pretty poor, (apart from Algeria)

[Stuttgart88]

Australia were pretty respectable despite their results.

[DeLorean]

They were involved in two entertaining games alright but conceding nine goals in three games is pretty shabby. That's the same as us at the Euros, only difference is they had Tim Cahill to produce the ridiculous. Okay that wasn't the only difference.

[bennocelt]

Australia were pretty respectable despite their results.

Yeah I guess, but i forgot they are now "Asian":o

[Wolfman]

England (now 14th) and Scotland (now 29th) up, thats good. We will get more ranking points when we beat them both in June.
We wish!

Lol.

[Bungle]

Europe and the Central/South American teams were by far the most competitive at the world cup. Asia and African teams were poor.

I can see an argument for there being more African and Asian teams at the World Cup given the size of their continents and the fact that the World Cup is meant to represent the world game. However, if we look at the quality of teams from Europe and the Americas, then they should be represented with more teams. Right now, Ireland are depressingly mediocre, but I'd fancy us to be in with a good shout to qualify from Asia and maybe Africa, and we are a third/fourth quality European nation.

A round robin tournament for the extra place (or 2) might be the fairest.

[tricky_colour]

Blimey, we are 62nd!!!

Not good.

[davidatrb]

Okay so there is a long shot chance that we can make a miraculous leap to 19th in UEFA before next month. That would be good enough for Pot 2 in the WC2018 draw next month.

And all we need is:

For us to beat England and Scotland.
Poland to lose to Georgia, or Ukraine to lose to Luxembourg.
N. Ireland to lose to Romania.
Iceland to lose to Czech Republic.
Sweden to lose or draw with one of Norway or Montenegro.
Hungary to lose or draw with Finland.
Israel and Bosnia to draw.
And Slovenia to lose to or draw with England.

By my calculations anyway.

[nigel-harps1954]

About half of that is likely to happen..

[DeLorean]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM&app=desktop

[davidatrb]

About half of that is likely to happen..

Yes, but the most unlikely to happen is probably Ireland to beat both Scotland and England, it will be us who let ourselves down again.

Also very unlikely to happen would be Poland to lose to Georgia, its 9/1 with paddypower.

Check http://fog2014.blogspot.ie/2015/06/world-dominanation-plan-b.html for points currently earned toward July rankings and some notes on how it could go down in Ireland's favour.

[davidatrb]

Draw against England does us no favours - even a win wouldn't have been much use to be honest, would have been better off not playing it from FIFA rankings point of view (which granted isn't usually really a good reason - as its mostly meaningless).

We will be left with 714 (if we beat Scot), 607 if we draw and 554 if we lose ... with 670/680 looking like the cut off for Pot 3 (based on current rankings) ... So only a win will see us improve and push into Pot 3, otherwise Pot 4. Pot 2 is out. But the important thing is Euro qualification against the Scots, a win will be more important to go towards that but might also help out in a small way for the FIFA WC2018 draw in July.

But if Wales do well against Belgium then they could be Pot 1, so its possible to draw Wales/Romania (Maybe Pot 1), Iceland/Slovakia (Maybe Pot 2) and Albania/N.Ireland (Maybe Pot 3), so its still possible to get a nice draw next month either way, just less likely...

Don't worry, after July I'll stop harping on about the rankings, this and the WC Finals draw is the only time that the FIFA rankings actually mean anything in the four year cycle.

[Bungle]

Draw against England does us no favours - even a win wouldn't have been much use to be honest, would have been better off not playing it from FIFA rankings point of view (which granted isn't usually really a good reason - as its mostly meaningless).

We will be left with 714 (if we beat Scot), 607 if we draw and 554 if we lose ... with 670/680 looking like the cut off for Pot 3 (based on current rankings) ... So only a win will see us improve and push into Pot 3, otherwise Pot 4. Pot 2 is out. But the important thing is Euro qualification against the Scots, a win will be more important to go towards that but might also help out in a small way for the FIFA WC2018 draw in July.

But if Wales do well against Belgium then they could be Pot 1, so its possible to draw Wales/Romania (Maybe Pot 1), Iceland/Slovakia (Maybe Pot 2) and Albania/N.Ireland (Maybe Pot 3), so its still possible to get a nice draw next month either way, just less likely...

Don't worry, after July I'll stop harping on about the rankings, this and the WC Finals draw is the only time that the FIFA rankings actually mean anything in the four year cycle.

Thanks for the update. Our draw really could go either way. We could get France as second seeds and there's teams like Turkey that we could get whether we are third or fourth seeds.

It's a big few days.

[tricky_colour]

Okay so there is a long shot chance that we can make a miraculous leap to 19th in UEFA before next month. That would be good enough for Pot 2 in the WC2018 draw next month.

And all we need is:

For us to beat England and Scotland.
Poland to lose to Georgia, or Ukraine to lose to Luxembourg.
N. Ireland to lose to Romania.
Iceland to lose to Czech Republic.
Sweden to lose or draw with one of Norway or Montenegro.
Hungary to lose or draw with Finland.
Israel and Bosnia to draw.
And Slovenia to lose to or draw with England.

By my calculations anyway.


Where will we be if those games go the other way?

119th?

Anyway, about 12 predictions there lets say they are all 2-1 (ie equal likely hood of win lose draw) then the combined odds ~= 600,000-1


Get your mortgage on it!!

[swinfordfc]

In world rankings term - what did that draw do for us? - like would it moved us up anything?

I know the Scotland game is huge now - its a must win like!

[OwlsFan]

I am reliably informed that having drawn against England, a win against Scotland and we are in pot 3 for world cup draw. Anything else and it's pot 4.

[davidatrb]

In world rankings term - what did that draw do for us? - like would it moved us up anything?

I know the Scotland game is huge now - its a must win like!

We got about 183 FIFA Points for drawing with England, and this is averaged with our points over the last year so it actually brings our average over the last year down to 389.18 (was 423.51 before we played them). So to answer the question it would probably move us down in points. Final position will depend on the Scottish match though.

The England points were Result (draw=1) * Importance (Friendly= 1) * Opponent Strength (England = 185) * Confed Strength(UEFA=0.99) = 1 * 1 * 185 * 0.99= 183.15

[swinfordfc]

We got about 183 FIFA Points for drawing with England, and this is averaged with our points over the last year so it actually brings our average over the last year down to 389.18 (was 423.51 before we played them). So to answer the question it would probably move us down in points. Final position will depend on the Scottish match though.

The England points were Result (draw=1) * Importance (Friendly= 1) * Opponent Strength (England = 185) * Confed Strength(UEFA=0.99) = 1 * 1 * 185 * 0.99= 183.15


Thanks davidtrb

[swinfordfc]

Thats Wales as top seeds for the world cup qualifying!

[swinfordfc]

lads,

If we beat Scotland - do we go to 39th in the rankings in July ..... and will that get us into 3rd pot of seeds for draw?

[TrapAPony]

Yes. If we beat Scotland we will be 3rd seeds for the World Cup draw

[davidatrb]

Thats Wales as top seeds for the world cup qualifying!

Croatia too, by my calculations if Italy don't beat Portugal next week. Wales Croatia Romania three teams that I wouldn't mind drawing from Pot 1. Italy and France could be a couple of big guns in Pot 2.

And if England fail to beat Slovenia it could mean that Wales are ranked ahead of them for the first time ever and the first time England aren't top of the 'home' teams since we were ranked ahead of them in 1995. England will probably and hopefully win though.

[Real ale Madrid]

Croatia too, by my calculations if Italy don't beat Portugal next week. Wales Croatia Romania three teams that I wouldn't mind drawing from Pot 1. Italy and France could be a couple of big guns in Pot 2..

Wales would hammer us at the moment in all fairness - be a better draw than a Spain or Germany alright.

[Stuttgart88]

Nah, we'd draw with Wales home and away.

[Stuttgart88]

Even with the deflection Shay could have reacted. A keeper should always to commit to covering his post and his bar. Fact: as a junior league keeper I would never have just let that ball sail wide without making sure. Had Shay just stepped across and followed the flight of the ball it'd have been a simple pick up. Two steps is all it'd have taken.

Maybe when I see it again il be more positive.

No, just seen it. There was a white shirt to his right which should have kept him moving right, just as a contingency. I expect a barrage of disagreement but Given was lazy. One more step was all it would have taken.

[davidatrb]

So now that we are out of Euro 2016 (bookie still giving 3/1 though which is a little optimistic I think) we can start focussing on WC2018 which starts with the draw next month and which we know now we will definitely be in Pot 4.

My prediction for the pots is:
Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Wales, England, Spain, Italy (obviously Romania and Wales are ones to hope for)
Pot 2: Croatia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Czech, Austria, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia (France the obvious one to avoid, the rest much the same but Italy could also be in Pot 2)
Pot 3: Poland, Scotland, Ukraine, Hungary, Albania, N. Ireland, Sweden, Slovenia, Serbia (N.Ireland, Albania and Slovenia from here would be nice, but much of a muchness all the way. Slovenia might be replaced by Greece here. Dont want Ukraine or Sweden.)
Pot 4: Greece, Turkey, Israel, Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroes, Montenegro,Estonia (We will avoid Greece (unless Greece escape) or Turkey, thats the silver lining of Pot 4!)
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, Macedonia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Moldova (Not much in here, but just might want to avoid Finland and Macedonia)
Pot 6: Kazakstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra. (The worst of the worst and Georgia!)


Greece will be very close to escaping Pot 4 if they beat Poland in a friendly on Tuesday, but still don't think it will be enough, probably just decimal places behind Serbia.
But it might not matter because Slovenia will drop themselves into Pot 4 with us if/when they lose or draw tomorrow, and Greece could then take their place in Pot 3.
Italy will drop down to Pot 2 if they draw against Portugal on Tuesday's Friendly, and Croatia will take their place in Pot 1.

There could be movement in Pot 5 or 6 if there are any major upsets like Luxembourg beating Ukraine, Belarus against Spain etc. but these things aren't interesting!

Poland look like they shot themselves in the foot with a friendly against Greece organised on Tuesday which even if they win will bring down their FIFA points enough to ensure that Bosnia will just pip them into Pot 2.

[nigel-harps1954]

Wales, Slovakia, Albania, Ireland, Azerbaijan and San Marino.

That'd be the dream draw really.

[geysir]

Poland look like they shot themselves in the foot with a friendly against Greece organised on Tuesday which even if they win will bring down their FIFA points enough to ensure that Bosnia will just pip them into Pot 2.
Friendlies are probably best played behind closed doors in the privacy of your own stadium.
I have a memory (might be just fantasy) that FIFA rankings were primarily about competitive games.
The ranking was based on 6? games each year, competitive games had priority and friendlies were bunched together and averaged separately before being part of the ranking computation.

The other distortion is that if a team wins, the multiplier is 3
and if a team draws, the multiplier is one, which mens nothing is multiplied. Some anomalies are normal, but that x3 multiplier distortion leads to this fifa ranking table having more anomalies than I can remember.
But Ireland are a 4th seed, can't argue against that.

[Bungle]

So now that we are out of Euro 2016 (bookie still giving 3/1 though which is a little optimistic I think) we can start focussing on WC2018 which starts with the draw next month and which we know now we will definitely be in Pot 4.

My prediction for the pots is:
Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Wales, England, Spain, Italy (obviously Romania and Wales are ones to hope for)
Pot 2: Croatia, Slovakia, Switzerland, Czech, Austria, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia (France the obvious one to avoid, the rest much the same but Italy could also be in Pot 2)
Pot 3: Poland, Scotland, Ukraine, Hungary, Albania, N. Ireland, Sweden, Slovenia, Serbia (N.Ireland, Albania and Slovenia from here would be nice, but much of a muchness all the way. Slovenia might be replaced by Greece here. Dont want Ukraine or Sweden.)
Pot 4: Greece, Turkey, Israel, Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroes, Montenegro,Estonia (We will avoid Greece (unless Greece escape) or Turkey, thats the silver lining of Pot 4!)
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, Macedonia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Moldova (Not much in here, but just might want to avoid Finland and Macedonia)
Pot 6: Kazakstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra. (The worst of the worst and Georgia!)


Greece will be very close to escaping Pot 4 if they beat Poland in a friendly on Tuesday, but still don't think it will be enough, probably just decimal places behind Serbia.
But it might not matter because Slovenia will drop themselves into Pot 4 with us if/when they lose or draw tomorrow, and Greece could then take their place in Pot 3.
Italy will drop down to Pot 2 if they draw against Portugal on Tuesday's Friendly, and Croatia will take their place in Pot 1.

There could be movement in Pot 5 or 6 if there are any major upsets like Luxembourg beating Ukraine, Belarus against Spain etc. but these things aren't interesting!

Poland look like they shot themselves in the foot with a friendly against Greece organised on Tuesday which even if they win will bring down their FIFA points enough to ensure that Bosnia will just pip them into Pot 2.

We are exactly where we deserve to be no question. My guess is that our distinctly average team and manager is the type of 4th seed team that teams from the top three pots won't be too unhappy with. A possible nuisance yes but that is about all. I remember our darkest days pre-Jack when there was a real sense that with the right manager, our core of world class players would kick on and deliver. Likewise, under Mick there was a sense that the great talent coming through would mean that we would see brighter days.

I watch teams with so called inferior players like Northern Ireland, Iceland and Scotland at least try and play football with a system of playing and a lack of fear. Martin o'neill is showing himself to be a very poor manager for Ireland - I don't care what he did with Celtic and Leicester - I was concerned before he came and once he started talking publicly about our lack of players I despaired.

i live in hope for a new manager and a jack Byrne or Alex o'hanlon to develop and give us something to smile about.

[pineapple stu]

Pot 4: Greece, Turkey, Israel, Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroes, Montenegro,Estonia (We will avoid Greece (unless Greece escape) or Turkey, thats the silver lining of Pot 4!)

How are the Faroes up in pot 4? 1 point in their last campaign (same group as ours). Two wins over the top seed this campaign will help obviously - but they've lost all their other games. Is that really enough to be the same seed as us, who've only lost one game in six (including a draw against the world champions)?

We certainly can't complain about being 3rd/4th seeds; just curious how the Faroes are so high up. You've them down ahead of Turkey, who got 16 points in their last campaign and have 8 this time, including a draw against Holland.

[davidatrb]

How are the Faroes up in pot 4?

You've them down ahead of Turkey, who got 16 points in their last campaign and have 8 this time, including a draw against Holland.

I have Faroes towards the bottom of Pot 4, so behind Turkey but ahead of the likes of Montenegro and Estonia. They are about 100 pts behind us. Draws aren't much use to anyone for ranking points. Friendlies aren't much use either and Faroes played none this year. So the draw against Germany counts for very little (we got 495 for drawing with Germany, but 488 for beating USA in a friendly and 770 for beating Georgia competitively). We have only 3 wins since July 2014 and two of those were in friendlies and two against relatively poor teams (not counting Gibraltar matches because they dont count to FIFA). Faroes have two competitve wins against Greece in the same period.

Games before July 2014 will only have 50% weighting.

I calculate their points (total 455.95):
2297

And ours (total 607.88):
2298
2299

And Turkey's (total 627.51):
2300
2301

[pineapple stu]

Cheers.

So the Faroes are boosted because they won recently?

Is this based on the world rankings? I didn't think they were quite so biased towards recent games.

[davidatrb]

i live in hope for a new manager and a jack Byrne or Alex o'hanlon to develop and give us something to smile about.

Wales and Iceland were in Pot 6 (along side San Marino and Andorra) for the WC2014 Qualifiers draw. Wales now are Pot 1 and Iceland are Pot 2. So it is possible to turn things around.

[davidatrb]

Cheers.

So the Faroes are boosted because they won recently?

Is this based on the world rankings? I didn't think they were quite so biased towards recent games.

Yep. Based on the FIFA Rankings.

http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/procedure/men.html

http://resources.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/r%26a-wr/52/00/97/fs-590_10e_wrpoints_english.pdf

Match average from past 12 months: 100%
Match average from previous year: 50%
Match average from year 3: 30%
Match average from year 4: 20%
Matches older than 4 years: 0% (deleted)

They have changed the process a few times over the decades. I think the current system they have is most sensitive to recent matches.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings#2006_ranking_system_update

[geysir]

The Faroes get boosted because of the exaggerated multiplier factor of 3 for a win and they had 2 big ones inside the last 12 months.

There were in a false position(for them) of 187 in the ranking table when they beat highly ranked Greece the first time around and moved up 80 places in the table.
They got 1300 points for beating Greece on Saturday and move up about another 30 places. Which means they are now in the upper 30's of uefa teams, which puts them in pot 4 of the draw

[Bungle]

The more I look at the seeding pots, the more I think how FIFA could easily increase the world cup to 40 teams. The standard in Europe and South America is incredibly high. I keep picking out teams for the "dream" draw but I struggle to see how we would do more than draw twice with them. I suppose we are due a big win, but I've been saying that for the last few campaigns.

It's horrible to be so downbeat, but I'd nearly rather we built the team and pack it with young lads with a view to getting to Euro 2020. We may take some awful hammerings from the top teams, but if in 4 years time, we had a team going places, it would be worth it. The type of massive improvement that we all yearn for may take 15-20 years, but I see no reason why we can't rebuild to a decent standard within the next four.

I see absolutely no progress with MON and no system of playing. We mock the North, but they try and play football with a far limited team to us and they play with no fear. We don't really believe that we should be beating average teams like Scotland and Austria, while they fancy their chances against Romania or Greece, let alone the bigger teams.

Building the team with a core of Westwood, Coleman, Wilson, Brady, Hendrick, McCarthy and Long is a start, and I would keep a few spots for the likes of Walters who still has something to offer. I would fill the rest of the squad with the likes of Jack Byrne, Ian Lawlor, Browne, Shane Duffy, Alex O'Hanlon and Sean Kavanagh.

[Stuttgart88]

Agree with paragraph 3. Somewhat agree with paragraph 4. I think the main 22-23 players picked are by and large the right ones. The enlarged squads are a bit of two fingers to the next in lines. O'Neill has lived for the now and hasn't cared much about succession planning. I think he has been too hung up on which clubs and in which division players play for. I thought there was a good case to call up Hourihane a year ago, maybe John Egan. Hoban would be another. But O'Neill has been pretty unequivocal that there is nothing coming through.

Wrt tactics etc., I just can't see how Roy Keane is happy with how we approach these games. I wonder is all well at HQ.

[SwanVsDalton]

Wrt tactics etc., I just can't see how Roy Keane is happy with how we approach these games. I wonder is all well at HQ.

I'm not sure - would it be a first for Keane to hold fire, not show much of an inkling, if that was the case?

I wonder if there's a disconnect between what the management wants/sees on the training pitch and what ends up happening in game time. I think MON looks completely forlorn at times, particularly during games, and I've been idly speculating over a serious men-tal-i-tee issue with the players - although I don't really mean it in a Trap way. I mean it more about their bravery to play.

I mean what we needed on Saturday was on big players to turn up. And even if it can vaguely be agreed we had some decent spells, as a team, we only had one decent performer on the ball. We needed Coleman, McCarthy, anyone else to make that happen. The difference in the international game is often just one really good player have a great game. And our top guys don't just fail to get over the line, often they stink the place out too.

[SwanVsDalton]

Fantasy groups (as based on Davidatrb's posts):

Qualification dreamtime
Wales
Bosnia
Albania
Us
Moldova
San Marino

Living nightmare
Germany
France
Sweden
Us
Armenia
Georgia

Personal choice
Romania
Iceland (they're going to have a Euro 2016 hangover and I'm up for Reykjavik)
Hungary
Us
Latvia
San Marino

[davidatrb]

Pot 1: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, England, Wales, Spain, Italy
Pot 2: Croatia, Slovakia, Austria, Switzerland, Czech, France, Iceland, Denmark, Bosnia
Pot 3: Poland, Ukraine, Scotland, Hungary, Sweden, Albania, N. Ireland, Serbia, Greece
Pot 4: Turkey, Slovenia, Israel, Ireland, Norway, Bulgaria, Faroes, Montenegro,Estonia
Pot 5: Cyprus, Latvia, Armenia, Finland, Belarus, Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Lithuania, Moldova
Pot 6: Kazakstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Georgia, Malta, San Marino, Andorra.

Not much has changed based on last nights results ...

Only two more games before the July Rankings are official. Portugal vs Italy and Greece vs Poland.

Italy need to win to stay in Pot 1 or else they will be replaced by Croatia.

Greece appear to be safe in Pot 3. Portugal are safe in Pot 1 for sure. Poland won't be able to improve on Pot 3 (unless they don't bother playing the friendly at all - or invalidate it by bringing on over 6 subs!)

That's my predictions anyway, I guess we'll find out on July 9th.

[davidatrb]

Fantasy groups (as based on Davidatrb's posts):

Qualification dreamtime
Wales
Bosnia
Albania
Us
Moldova
San Marino

Living nightmare
Germany
France
Sweden
Us
Armenia
Georgia

Personal choice
Romania
Iceland (they're going to have a Euro 2016 hangover and I'm up for Reykjavik)
Hungary
Us
Latvia
San Marino

My opinion (based on bookie's ratings)..

Best case
Wales, Iceland, Albania, Ireland, Moldova, Andorra.

Worst case
Germany, France, Poland, Ireland, Macedonia, Kazakstan.

The mood I'm in at the moment I wouldn't expect Ireland to qualify from either group.