American Politics

[osarusan]

Biden wins 4 of the 5 states voting yesterday, to go well ahead in the delegates count - 809 to 654.

[NeverFeltBetter]

It would be good if Sanders avoided a repeat of the last primary cycle and didn't drag this out. Not that I have any great appreciation for Biden of course, but if the Dems actually want to beat Trump and not just posture, they need to bring a de facto end to the ridiculous clownshow that is their nomination process.

[Closed Account 2]

It feels like the Democrats are going for TrumpLite if they do end up plumping for Biden.

He's certainly been quite feisty on the campaign trail, calling one member of the public a fat slob and describing another as being, "full of ----" the other day. He's got a bit of a chequered history (on things like segregation, Iraq war, elements of nepotism) and the debates could get very ugly as November approaches.

If he does defeat Trump he'll be the oldest president ever to take office. And will be older on his inauguration than Reagan was when he left office. He'll be 82 if he goes for a second term in 2024 and if he sees that second term through he'll be 86 when he leaves office in 2028.

[dahamsta]

I really dislike Biden, but he'll be better than Trump. The risk is that without someone like Sanders to really push the country to (their idea of) the left, they will swing back beyond Trump 4 years later to a wannabe-dictator with an actual brain. The saving grace with Trump is that he's too stupid to take advantage of COV19.

[backstothewall]

If things in the states get as bad as i expect the Republicans will loose both the White House, and all 23 Senate seats they are defending. Biden might have 67+ democratic Senators and carte blance to change the constitution and impeach Republican judges on the Supreme Court.

America could be changed for a generation. 2nd Amendment replaced with something sane. Equal Rights Amendment adopted. Healthcare for all as a constitutional right. Statehood for Puerto Rico and DC.

[dahamsta]

Or it could (continue to) go the other way entirely. It's already well on the way to becoming a fascist authoritarion state.

Under His Eye

[Real ale Madrid]

If things in the states get as bad as i expect the Republicans will loose both the White House, and all 23 Senate seats they are defending. Biden might have 67+ democratic Senators and carte blance to change the constitution and impeach Republican judges on the Supreme Court.

America could be changed for a generation. 2nd Amendment replaced with something sane. Equal Rights Amendment adopted. Healthcare for all as a constitutional right. Statehood for Puerto Rico and DC.

Biden won't do any of that stuff, unless he breaks his election promises.

[backstothewall]

if the number are there to
Biden won't do any of that stuff, unless he breaks his election promises.

I dunno. Biden is an establishment Democrat, but he's a party man. If he can set the table for the party in the next 30 years i think he will.

At his age it's inconceivable that he would run again in 2024 for me. My assumption is that this would be a 1 term gig.

He's not been afraid to talk about going after guns on the campaign trail. In the run up to Super Tuesday he was pointing to Beto O'Rourke as the person who he would have taking the lead on the issue. If the numbers are there to change the constitution i could see it happening.

I could also see constitutional change regarding the Supreme Court,as well as the impeachment of Brett Kavanaugh in the event of a Senate loppsidded enough to get it through. The Dems could easily justify bumping Kavanaugh and replacing him with Merrick Garland. He has talked about putting a black woman on the bench, and I've read a bit about Kamala Harris going to SCOTUS recently, possible to replace RBG. If Steyer also goes he could secure a liberal court for quite some time.

I don't see him doing much more on healthcare than a public option, but if he goes in '24 his replacement might, and with a liberal court she could get away with a lot.

I say 'she' because if the democrats are looking for a candidate in '24 the strongest candidates are all females. Biden has already committed to a female running mate who will be in contention, while AOC will be eligible for the first time by then.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Biden's whole thing has been to preach reconciliation and rail against Sanders' revolution. I doubt that would include advocating the impeachment of Republican judges.

[backstothewall]

They would do it the way it's done. There have already been 3 separate sexual assault allegations against him. If 3 women have come forward so far there are more out there. I wouldn't be surprised if the oppo research has started already. At that point Biden can say how regrettable the whole thing is but that he should probably step down etc.

Any president with a superiority of either states or senators will come under almighty pressure from their own party to make full use of that power.

[backstothewall]

Sen Richard Burr & Sen Kelly Loeffler are both likely to be investigated for insider trading. Both sold stock likely to be effected by the crisis after attending Senate briefings about Covid 19. Tucker Carlson calling for Burr to resign on Fox News. Seems likely that both are finished, so special elections in North Carolina and Georgia are probably going to be held in November.

The GOP are in enormous trouble. This is going to be Hurricane Katrina on steroids.

[Real ale Madrid]

This is why we need borders!

[BonnieShels]

Today's conference is insane. Even more than normal.

[Real ale Madrid]

Jumping the shark alright. Even by Trump standards this is absolutely mental.

[osarusan]

So, Biden it is.

As a career politician, he shouldn't have any skeletons left in the closet, though I see someone has come out with an accusation that he sexually assaulted her. I expect the Ukraine thing to rumble on for a while too.

He's not all that inspiring a candidate, and a bit of a rambler in debates, so I think they'll be pretty unenlightening (if they even happen), but I guess Sanders was just too far to the left.

Although a lot of power resides with the individual states themseves, Trump will still take some of the blame or credit for what happens with COVID-19 - his press conferences so far have been bizarre, but he has stayed pretty unchanged in approval ratings.

The Democrats did win a battle for a supreme court position in Wisconsin, which they will see as something of a swing in their favour in one of the battleground states.

[backstothewall]

As a leftie I'm glad it's Biden. Sanders says the right things, but I don't want him to be President. Even if Sanders won, which is a big if, chances are he would drop dead after <2 years in that job and get bugger all done. I think I've said before on here that I see him as a John the Baptist figure. Saying the rights things is all well and good, but he's too old. So is Biden, but he can act as a safe pair of hands for 4 years and get that crazy mother****er out of the White House.

The day is coming when we'll get a US president with the most left wing policy agenda since FDR, but it will be a struggle to get it all done in 8 years. Obama was great, and most of the social changes our generation wanted happened under him, but now we need someone to drive through the economic changes. That President will need 8 years, and in 2024 AOC will be there to take on whichever knuckle-dragging neanderthal the GOP decide to put up against her, and she'll win.

[Real ale Madrid]

As a leftie I'm glad it's Biden.

That's a false equivalence anyway.

[Real ale Madrid]

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[passinginterest]

The injecting disinfectant seems completely mad, but, to be fair, there's a lot of successful UV light treatments out there.

[tetsujin1979]

We live in a world where news outlets have to tell people not to inject themselves with bleach, because the President of the United States said it might cure a virus.

[backstothewall]

Personally I think Trump supporters injecting themselves with bleach offers an opportunity to save lives in the long run.

[dahamsta]

Natural selection.

[John83]

The injecting disinfectant seems completely mad, but, to be fair, there's a lot of successful UV light treatments out there.
You can decontaminate a surface, or water, with sufficiently intense UV light and I could imagine has has some uses in dermatology or something, but I would be highly surprised if it could be used for internal medicine.

[peadar1987]

To be fair to the man, injecting yourself with sufficient cleaning products will definitely kill the virus. It's just likely to have some mild-to-fatal side effects as well.

[John83]

To be fair to the man, injecting yourself with sufficient cleaning products will definitely kill the virus. It's just likely to have some mild-to-fatal side effects as well.
I remember Ben Goldacre sneering (justifiably) at some newspaper reports of some miracle cure for cancer based on it killing cancer cells in a Petrie dish. "So does bleach", he said. It's sad how evident it is now that there are people who wouldn't have understood that.

[osarusan]

For him to be mulling over the idea of injecting disinfectant during the actual press conference is bizarre.

It really suggests that these things aren't prepped at all, no clear idea of 'these are the 3 key points we need to get across and this is how we will do it and who will say what'.

But maybe they are well prepped, and it is just impossible to know if and when he will go off track and start his weird rambles and ponderings.

[passinginterest]

You can decontaminate a surface, or water, with sufficiently intense UV light and I could imagine has has some uses in dermatology or something, but I would be highly surprised if it could be used for internal medicine.

It was a common enough treatment and quite effective but died out as more antibiotics were developed apparently, blood is taken, treated with UV and reinjected, there's a good few papers on it and it's gaining some traction with antibiotics becoming less effective against certain viruses that have mutated. I read this paper earlier; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6122858/

There's nothing obvious that I've seen to suggest it's not without merit. I had incredibly effective external UV light therapy for my psoriasis (not directly comparative but an autoimmune condition similar to what seems to happen in the lungs in the particularly bad coronavirus cases)

[John83]

Cheers for the source. It's a fairly measured paper, suggesting it might be worth a look given the rise of superbugs. He doesn't seem to have much of an idea of why it might be effective - though I agree with him that it's certainly not sterilisation of the blood (which would be a terrible idea - killing red and white blood cells), so it's on very shaky foundations. It's hardly at the point where you'd mention it in casual conversation, much less at a major press conference. I mean, this is not a conclusion suggesting a revolution in medicine is around the corner:

The present confusion about exactly what is happening during and after the treatment is playing a large role in the controversy about whether UBI could ever be a mainstream medical therapy, or must remain side-lined in the “alternative and complementary” category where it has been allowed to be forgotten for the last 50 years.
Without a real physical mechanism explaining it (and hormesis is a pretty ropey argument - why not try electroshock therapy, or just slapping the patients?), evidence is going to be on the level of acupuncture. I see a line like

Henry A Barrett at the Willard Parker Hospital in New York City in 1940 reported on 110 cases including a number of different infections. Twenty-nine different conditions were described as being responsive, including the following: infectious arthritis, septic abortion, osteoarthritis, tuberculosis glands, chronic blepharitis, mastoiditis, uveitis, furunculosis, chronic paranasal sinusitis, acne vulgaris, and secondary anemia [23 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6122858/#R23), 24 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6122858/#R24)].
And I think, that's 29 successes claimed out of how many things he's tried it on? Let's say it worked on everything that guy tested (a bit of a red flag for me). He'd have fewer than 4 patients per disease. The real likelihood is that Barrett was reporting on sample sizes of 1, at which you can provide evidence that the presence or absence of a magic rock helped, because it's really hard in medicine to show that the patient got better for any one specific reason.

Anyway, it was an interesting read, thanks.

[The Fly]

That President will need 8 years, and in 2024 AOC will be there to take on whichever knuckle-dragging neanderthal the GOP decide to put up against her, and she'll win.

If I have a hat at the time I'll eat it if AOC is elected President.

[Real ale Madrid]

Hard to see AOC in the White House at 38 alright.

[osarusan]

AOC is as left as Bernie...will energise a certain proportion of the left wing of the Democrat party, but will not win a presidential election...not with her current positions anyway. Will not even be allowed take part in one I would guess.

[tetsujin1979]

Don't you have to be 35 to run anyway?

[Real ale Madrid]

AOC is as left as Bernie...will energise a certain proportion of the left wing of the Democrat party, but will not win a presidential election...not with her current positions anyway. Will not even be allowed take part in one I would guess.

Sanders wasn't a million miles away from winning the nomination this time around - I could see AOC making a bid in 8/12 years time. Americans are anti-socialism - but i didn't see too many of them handing back the $1,200 they got handed by the Federal government a few weeks back. I can see the discourse over there shifting over the next generation.

[The Fly]

AOC is as left as Bernie...will energise a certain proportion of the left wing of the Democrat party, but will not win a presidential election...not with her current positions anyway. Will not even be allowed take part in one I would guess.

Pretty much this.

[The Fly]

Sanders wasn't a million miles away from winning the nomination this time around - I could see AOC making a bid in 8/12 years time. Americans are anti-socialism - but i didn't see too many of them handing back the $1,200 they got handed by the Federal government a few weeks back. I can see the discourse over there shifting over the next generation.

I think that particular discourse will certainly grow over there but whether there will be a decisive shift in that direction amongst the general populace is much more uncertain; and unlikely in my view. Only time will tell I suppose.

Rather, I think politics across many Western countries is going to increasingly revolve around things like identity, culture, nation, etc; ground upon which the Left will find it much harder to compete than the Right.

[backstothewall]

Don't you have to be 35 to run anyway?

You have to by 35 by inauguration day (Jan 20th)

On 20/01/2025 she will be 35 years 2 months & 21 days old.

[Closed Account 2]

It's amazing the lower age limit is 35, but there is no upper age limit.

The Tara Reid stuff seems to be rumbling on, I can't help but think the Democrats would have been better off picking an untarnished candidate.

[tetsujin1979]

Does one exist?

[The Fly]

Does one exist?

Michelle Obama would probably have a good chance of winning if she ran.

[Closed Account 2]

I think most of the other Democrats vying for the nomineeship were much less tarnished than Biden. None of them had such sexual assault issues hanging over them.

[tetsujin1979]

Michelle Obama would probably have a good chance of winning if she ran.

Pretty sure she said she had no interest in running after Trump won.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Watched that Netflix doc Becoming about her and her recent book tour the other night. Certainly a bit of a puff piece, if you told me she had Presidential aspirations I wouldn't be too surprised (though she seems to be heading in a more philanthropic direction). But wouldn't be as sure of her chances as The Fly. Think we underestimate how many Americans not only hate the Obama's, but think they are at the centre of a conspiracy to destroy the country.

[backstothewall]

Sen Richard Burr & Sen Kelly Loeffler are both likely to be investigated for insider trading. Both sold stock likely to be effected by the crisis after attending Senate briefings about Covid 19. Tucker Carlson calling for Burr to resign on Fox News. Seems likely that both are finished, so special elections in North Carolina and Georgia are probably going to be held in November.

The GOP are in enormous trouble. This is going to be Hurricane Katrina on steroids.

Update: Burr has had his phone seized by the Feds.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52097349

[NeverFeltBetter]

Is that not going to be extremely difficult to prove for any of those people? Of course I think it's too much of a coincidence, but I can't see it sticking. Another dismissed charge for republicans to crow about is more likely.

[osarusan]

Biden officially the nominee now.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0606/1145818-us-biden/?fbclid=IwAR2HcQn7Qa5-tkNkAlngNZAb-I5ZZctnNm8-sPMIUW9VDzlasMaEXNSr_LE

Wonder which woman will be his running mate. Klobuchar and Harris most mentioned. Val Demmings of Florida maybe an outside bet?

Covid-19 has obvously crushed the economy (although better-than-expected unemployment figures yesterday), but not sure how much that would affect Trump...it is a worldwide pandemic after all. And who knows what the economy will look like in a few months.

Covid-19 impact on health will be a factor also, although that's much more a state-led response than a federal one, so not sure how much impact will have. His press conferences have been trainwrecks, but how much does that matter.

The recent protests and then rioting/looting may even help him, if people's reaction is to look for a 'take no crap' approach from law enforcement, or may hurt him, if people take 'police brutality needs to stop' mentality (Demmings could be useful to Biden in this respect).

Biden isn't doing much at the moment. Hardly an inspiring candidate, but I think the Democratic message will be all about 'Trump must go' and energise the base that way, rather than focusing on their own canditate.

[The Fly]

Pre-coronavirus I would've said Trump's a shoo-in to win a second term. Now, with the addition of the recent protests and riots, it's much more up in the air. I couldn't call it at this stage...from my lofty vantage point across the Atlantic.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson goes for it next time. IF YA SMELLLLLLL...

[Real ale Madrid]

1270333484528214018

If Gemtrails O'Doherty tweeted this you'd say something.....

[samhaydenjr]

1270333484528214018

If Gemtrails O'Doherty tweeted this you'd say something.....

Clearly Trump has never met any actual AntiFa people, if he thought this gentleman was one

[The Fly]

Pre-coronavirus I would've said Trump's a shoo-in to win a second term. Now, with the addition of the recent protests and riots, it's much more up in the air. I couldn't call it at this stage...from my lofty vantage point across the Atlantic.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone like Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson goes for it next time. IF YA SMELLLLLLL...

Update: I think Trump's gonna be re-elected.

[tetsujin1979]

What's changed your mind?