American Politics

[NeverFeltBetter]

Trump seems to above polling as a science. Just oo much of am aberration.

Looking increasingly likely that Biden has won the election - looking good, though not certain in PA, GA a possibility, AZ, NE falling the right way - but that Trump is going to now attempt to invalidate the process, with the help of a Supreme Court he has been permitted to stack in his favour.

[D24Saint]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ppredictors/status/1323862826495168513?s=08

Worth a look.

[Real ale Madrid]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ppredictors/status/1323862826495168513?s=08

Worth a look.

Bernie. Man what could have been. Imagine voting for Biden instead of him.

[Mr A]

When we got up this morning the dog had horribly shat on the dining room floor.

The US election results provoked much the same reaction.

Biden should get there in the end but Trump's tantrum already indicates that he will try anything to stay in office. Rough times ahead.

[dahamsta]

Bernie. Man what could have been. Imagine voting for Biden instead of him.

It looks like a lot of young people got out the vote on the day this time, although I haven't seen that broken down between the parties. If young Democrats had done that in the primary, Bernie probably would've been the candidate. Although going by Miami-Dade, you'd wonder how that would have gone. Do Latinos really not realise that Trump literally hates them? Even now, after their voting for them, he will still hate them.


Biden should get there in the end but Trump's tantrum already indicates that he will try anything to stay in office. Rough times ahead.

It was a depressing morning and it's going to be a depressing day. I'm not so sure Biden will win, and I think it's a loss for America and the rest of the world even if he does; albeit far better than a Trump win of course. America will be even further divided, there'll be more chaos in 4 years, and a good chance of a Republican getting in again; this time maybe even a smart one. Would they actually try to hold onto Trump, keep him out of jail for 4 years, and run him again? I'd put nothing past them at this stage.

And it will all bounce back off us. I'm rubber, you're glue, whatever dogsh*t you throw will bounce off me back onto the UK, Australia, Ireland, etc, etc.

And there's the Senate. And the Supreme Court, and....

[Mr A]

The votes still to be counted in the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are likely to heavily favour Biden. Nevada may go his way and I read somewhere or other that even Georgia is still in play for him.

Very annoyed that turd Graham kept his Senate seat. The fecking South man.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'm wary of turning (what is likely) a victory into a defeat, just because the margin wasn't as big as we wanted. Reminds of 2018 and Peter Casey, and how he was all anyone ever wanted to talk about the day after, even if Higgins had gotten an enormous victory. At the end end of the day, if things go in the direction they appear to be heading, Trump will have lost and an incumbent President will have lost an election for the first time in 28 years. Trump has a way of sapping morale, but if he's a loser, he's a loser.

[John83]

Sure, but it's not even clear what happens once it's established he's lost. Not accepting the election results seems like a Rubicon he's dipping his toes into: he's already called the election a fraud and said he's going to the Supreme Court. You'd hope he'll get knocked on his ass there, but it's hardly comforting to see him blustering about it. Things could get very ugly over there if he pushes back hard enough.

[NeverFeltBetter]

He has to have a credible argument to go before the SC at least, and that doesn't seem likely. I think I may have sounded flippant in my post above, which wasn't my intention. People have very credible concerns about how it has turned out, and there are a tonne of lessons to be learned - #1 for me is the necessity for Dems to push back against the red scare in Florida - but it's more likely this morning that Biden is about to become President.

A few GOP figures - the most of consequence being Chris Christie I suppose - have made signs that they are heading towards conceding and may not be super happy with what Trump said last night, and long may that continue. Perhaps they'll see retaining the Senate and winning Florida as the sort of not-inconsiderable wins to focus on, and won't want Trump to make them look bad by trying to drag out a loss. i'm especially interested to see what Pence says and does in the next few days, as he may well have ambitions of running for the top job in four years.

[Mr A]

Wisconsin in the bag for Biden. Michigan looks very likely to follow.

[dahamsta]

Looks like Michigan is gone to Biden now too. I won't rest until Biden hits 270, and even then there's chaos to follow. The whole lame duck thing is as dumb as the electoral college. But will there be reform? Will there fu...

[Real ale Madrid]

Breathing a huge sigh of relief I must say. No fan of Biden but the Democratic party deserves some credit at least for getting 70m votes up. However the Senate race must be a bitter pill to swallow at this stage - notwithstanding the Georgia run off to come.

[The Fly]

My long term prediction at this point is that Biden wins it, and the next four years will be come as a huge disappointment to those who think this election signals some sort of grand deliverance for the country...and Trump goes again in four years and wins.

(And I cashed out btw ;))

[Real ale Madrid]

Not sure anyone thinks this will be anything like a grand deliverance, especially with the Senate still red. Trump has lost 2 popular votes in a row. Was fortunate to win last time out with narrow rust belt wins that have proven tough to maintain. I doubt he would win the GOP nomination in 4 years but I wouldn't put anything past him really.

Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV.

[tetsujin1979]

He'll be 78 by the next election. Might be a stretch for him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of his children run.

[Charlie Darwin]

Although going by Miami-Dade, you'd wonder how that would have gone. Do Latinos really not realise that Trump literally hates them? Even now, after their voting for them, he will still hate them.
A lot of latinos in Miami-Dade would be the former Cuban and Venezuelan elites and their descendants who had their families' plantations and mines taken off them and hate anything left of Trump. Many of whom probably wouldn't consider themselves latinos anyway.

[tetsujin1979]

seen a few interviews with Latinos for Trump followers celebrating in Miami saying that they escaped socialism, and know what it looks like, and that's why they voted for Trump - to fight against it.
Their votes were gone as soon as Biden's policies were painted as socialism, when the reality is they're nothing of the sort.

[passinginterest]

seen a few interviews with Latinos for Trump followers celebrating in Miami saying that they escaped socialism, and know what it looks like, and that's why they voted for Trump - to fight against it.
Their votes were gone as soon as Biden's policies were painted as socialism, when the reality is they're nothing of the sort.

This sort of thing was happening; https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2020/10/11/trump-campaign-launches-fighters-against-socialism-bus-tour-in-tampa/

Hard to comprehend for us how the Democrats could be seen as remotely socialist. Our government and most of Europe would be communists in comparison. The fact that the Republicans were able to sell that narrative is the worrying thing.

I think there's still a huge issue with Democrats dismissing Trump supporters as idiots who've been fooled by fake news and social media, rather than trying to reach out and understand where this is coming from and to see if they can offer genuine alternatives. I know Biden may have been largely chosen because he's seen as a moderate, but surely someone a bit more dynamic and engaging could have offered more. Sanders is probably too polarising and too old, but surely there was someone else in the field who could have been an option? Buttigieg on paper looks like he'd have appeal, ex military, Christian, etc. but given the conservatism still evident in so much of the US his sexuality was probably too much of a hurdle to overcome.

[NeverFeltBetter]

The American perception of "socialism" is a bizarre thing. I suppose some of it must be down to a latent Cold War hysteria? Seems odd to think there are people in that country who believe that Europe is a communist hellscape because of things like the NHS.

[The Fly]

He'll be 78 by the next election. Might be a stretch for him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of his children run.

Biden's just done it.

[samhaydenjr]

Trump seems to above polling as a science. Just oo much of am aberration.

Looking increasingly likely that Biden has won the election - looking good, though not certain in PA, GA a possibility, AZ, NE falling the right way - but that Trump is going to now attempt to invalidate the process, with the help of a Supreme Court he has been permitted to stack in his favour.

I was considering the apparent polling error and the inevitable handwringing that's going to happen and then I had a realisation - there could be a "DeJoy effect" - somebody should track mail-in ballots that arrive too late to be counted but were postmarked reasonably early so we can see if Trump stole Florida and North Carolina and how close he came to stealing the election. Also, once Biden is in office, postal workers should be encouraged to come forward to talk about tactics put in place to slow down mail-in ballots.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Biden declared the winner by networks, finally. Secret Service started treating him like the President yesterday.

CNN claiming Trump is out on the links, so he'll be away from the celebrations.

[D24Saint]

Biden declared the winner by networks, finally. Secret Service started treating him like the President yesterday.

CNN claiming Trump is out on the links, so he'll be away from the celebrations.

About time it took forever. I felt sorry for that CNN bloke trying to make the same map & numbers seem exciting for days. We should be due for a state visit once the covid is over.

[osarusan]

Trump with a win loss record of 1-31 in the courts so far.

[Charlie Darwin]

Still better than Stephen Kenny.

[Real ale Madrid]

Georgia run offs tonight.

Fivethirthyeight projecting narrow Dem wins in both which is a touch optimistic but certainly possible - they need them both.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/?cid=rrpromo
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-republicans-in-georgia-vs-the-case-for-democrats/

[tetsujin1979]

Warnock projected to win: https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-55544056
Ossoff and Perdue still tied for the other seat, with the votes from the remaining counties expected to favour the democrat. Should have the final numbers this evening.

[NeverFeltBetter]

This seems pretty significant. McConnell will be out as Senate Leader at the very least, which has left-leaning friends of mine in the States howling with delight right now. I presume Schumer will take that role?

A lot of stuff becomes more possible now, in terms of instituting a platform, judicial appointments, COVID supports for people, etc. You don't want to go too mad, what with filibustering and bi-partisan moves from some Dems who continue to not realise the Reps are irredeemable, but it paints Biden's win in a whole new light.

Relatedly does anyone else think Biden is planning on a single term and then to endorse Harris for 2024? I'm just thinking with his age and the Party's need to cater for black voters more: they simply seem to have been the biggest single factor in the Georgia results.

[dahamsta]

They're both through, according to something I read an hour or so ago. It's great news, and something that will affect the world.

F*ck Moscow Mitch

[Real ale Madrid]

It is great news but the whole thing could flip back in 2 years time both Senate and Congress as they are both teetering precariously either way. - so plenty to do in the short time. It has turned out to be a pretty good election after all for the Democrats - it certainly didn't look like this at around 3am on the night of the main elections back in November.

[The Fly]

They're both through, according to something I read an hour or so ago. It's great news, and something that will affect the world.


Don't hold your breath.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I was happy out about all this in the morning, but the scenes in the last hour outside and just inside the Senate building are genuinely quite distressing. I fully expect that Trump is going to have to be physically escorted from the White House on Inauguration Day.

[Real ale Madrid]

I was happy out about all this in the morning, but the scenes in the last hour outside and just inside the Senate building are genuinely quite distressing. I fully expect that Trump is going to have to be physically escorted from the White House on Inauguration Day.

If those protestors were black they wouldn't have got in there.

[NeverFeltBetter]

When George Floyd protesters were in DC last summer, the National Guard was protecting the Capitol in force. Today the Washington Post is claiming the Defence Department is refusing to send them.

There is an air of unreality to what is occurring, at least from my perspective. I keep expecting to read an update that's like "And now the drill for a possible coup attempt has concluded".

Edit: Apparently Virginia's (Dem) Governor has ordered the NG personnel under his authority in.

[D24Saint]

When George Floyd protesters were in DC last summer, the National Guard was protecting the Capitol in force. Today the Washington Post is claiming the Defence Department is refusing to send them.

There is an air of unreality to what is occurring, at least from my perspective. I keep expecting to read an update that's like "And now the drill for a possible coup attempt has concluded".

Edit: Apparently Virginia's (Dem) Governor has ordered the NG personnel under his authority in.

It’s a bit surreal watching CNN at the moment. It’s hard to believe it to be honest that this is where it’s gone for American. It’s a beautiful building I did a tour a few years back.

[the 12 th man]

25th Amendment time.

[osarusan]

After all that madness, they all reconvened and went through the process and Pence officially certified Biden as the next president.

[the 12 th man]

Trump now says there will be an orderly transition.

[D24Saint]

Trump now says there will be an orderly transition.

Id say he was threatened with invoking the 25th amendment to bring him back in line.

[backstothewall]

Now he has the Senate in his pocket Biden's first priority should be restoring democracy preventing something like this happening again for a generation. That means a new Voting Rights Act & Statehood for Puerto Rice and DC.

Appointing Merrick Garland as AG is a smart move with an eye to the future as it will allow him to appoint a young liberal judge to the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia which is probably the most important court in the country apart from the Supreme Court.

Justice Breyer will likely step down from SCOTUS now. He's 82 and the left will want a fire breathing liberal who is young enough to sit on the court for 40+ years to replace RBG.

I assume Biden won't want to run again in 4 years. That's a huge advantage as long as he doesn't say anything about it until after the midterms. He'll be able to govern without ever having to look at a poll or approval rating.

[the 12 th man]

Id say he was threatened with invoking the 25th amendment to bring him back in line.

Trump's acquiescence to an orderly hand over has probably lessened the chance of it a good bit.

So what happens if he pulls another stunt in the next 12 days?

[NeverFeltBetter]

The death of the police officer, while a ridiculously avoidable tragedy, will have the effect of taking some of the air out of the balloon in this situation, I hope. Trumps base is synonymous with that "Blue Lives Matter" sentiment, and it's hard to justify what must be called at least the manslaughter of a cop (though some will try). I think that's what motivated a surprisingly direct criticism of what happened from Trump in his last statement. Dems crying for impeachment, but presumably the clock will run out on his term first.

Reading some details on the Capitol Police, and its just an astonishing failure from them on a lot of different levels. I read today the Oireachtas is reviewing their owns security procedures.

[tetsujin1979]

Trump permabanned from Twitter
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[NeverFeltBetter]

Now that Trump is about to lose executive power he suddenly is too volatile for social media platforms. A lot of rats leaving the sinking ship in the last few days in terms of resignations too.

It appears as if Pelosi is going to push for some manner of impeachment procedures before Trump goes, on the back of increasing Republican indignation (funny how that's popping up: see above) but I don't see it getting anywhere in the short time frame. Eye raising headline earlier where she spoke to the COTJC about preventing Trump from launching any nuclear strikes!

Multiple arrests of people involved in the storming announced too. You'd have to imagine they'll come down hard, right? In some case I've read reports that the maximum term that could be handed down is only a year in prison, which seems crazy to me.

[peadar1987]

The death of the police officer, while a ridiculously avoidable tragedy, will have the effect of taking some of the air out of the balloon in this situation, I hope. Trumps base is synonymous with that "Blue Lives Matter" sentiment, and it's hard to justify what must be called at least the manslaughter of a cop (though some will try). I think that's what motivated a surprisingly direct criticism of what happened from Trump in his last statement. Dems crying for impeachment, but presumably the clock will run out on his term first.

Reading some details on the Capitol Police, and its just an astonishing failure from them on a lot of different levels. I read today the Oireachtas is reviewing their owns security procedures.

Lots of noise on social media from the usual crowd that the police officer was actually killed by Antifa in a False Flag.

I'm not surprised with humanity, I'm just disappointed.

[Real ale Madrid]

This is terrible - the poor things.

1348388601118273537

[tetsujin1979]

Parler, the alternative to Twitter populated mainly by people who've been banned from Twitter, was shut down by Amazon last night.
Apple and Google removed their app from their respective app stores last week.
According to the founder of the site, none of the other providers that have the resources to host the site will talk to them.

[NeverFeltBetter]

There has been a big business backlash to Trump in a lot of ways in the last week (enough that The Onion came out with this headline: https://www.theonion.com/eerily-silent-charmin-twitter-account-apparently-condon-1846013997). The PGA stripping one of his courses of its status on the Tour making a lot of headlines this morning I see. All very well and good, but given enough distance from last week I doubt it will stick. The man uncharacteristically reclusive the last few days.

[tetsujin1979]

There has been a big business backlash to Trump in a lot of ways in the last week (enough that The Onion came out with this headline: https://www.theonion.com/eerily-silent-charmin-twitter-account-apparently-condon-1846013997). The PGA stripping one of his courses of its status on the Tour making a lot of headlines this morning I see. All very well and good, but given enough distance from last week I doubt it will stick. The man uncharacteristically reclusive the last few days.
Not sure if he's being reclusive, or if all of the usual avenues he uses to communicate (twitter, facebook, instagram, etc) have been cut off to him. I am a little surprised he hasn't phoned in to Fox News again.

Also, if you've ever used Parler, it was subject to a massive hack last night and all posts, photos and videos were uploaded to free storage last night.
Actually, I'm not sure if you could even call it a hack, it looks like the site had zero security.
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[Real ale Madrid]

Deleted :(