American Politics

[dahamsta]

Don't know what you are looking at but I have provided, what 7, 8 links in the past couple of days. I posted about defunding the police and Antifa / BLM violence and was asked to provide links. I provided several. Tets asked me to provide a link last night and I did. AND SUDDENLY NOW YOU ARE ASKING ME TO PROVIDE SOURCES??? What exactly are you talking about?

I provided Prager U as a source as well as FOX TV, Rush Liimbaugh etc. But my sources are no good despite the fact that millions upon millions of Americans are avid listeners and contributors to same and they have track records going back decades. My sources are no good and everyone elses's are fine. I have asked someone on here to show evidence of the lie that was told about Charlottesville, but that evidence has not been provided. That doesn't concern you in the slightest?

It was the same the last time. I provided links but you went ahead and suspended me anyway. YOU CLEARLY HAVE AN ANTI-TRUMP AGENDA. THAT IS VERY PLAIN TO SEE. And you are the moderator? Seriously?
Enjoy your very closed minded very one sided forum.

You received two infractions yesterday, for unsourced posts. The posts had no sources. End of story.

Any further posts without sources will be infracted, and you will be automatically suspended. If you don't want to be suspended, include sources in your posts. Not on request, not later, in your posts.

This is not America, you are not Donald Trump. We have rules, and shouting like Trump at the debate won't work here. Obey our rules or leave our site.

[osarusan]

So Trump has Covid 19 and is in hospital, will work from there for the next few days at least. As a 74-year old who is overweight, he needs to look after himself first and foremost.


From a political perspective, it will have some impact on his campaign as he loves the energy of the big crowds right in front of him and hasn't done a whole lot of remote stuff. Expect him to be even more active on twitter I suppose. Maybe more pre-recorded videos in which he comes across as calmer and more composed, and mentions actual policy, might help him project that image.

Mostly though, there are pretty much no undecideds left on Trump by this stage, so I don't see it making much difference really.

[John83]

I expect it's less about undecideds now so much as voter mobilisation/suppression. Obama won 60 million votes to 40. Clinton lost 40:40 to Trump. Turnout is everything.

[Real ale Madrid]

Trump has no chance of winning the election 8 points behind with a month to go with the electorate so polarized. What would be interesting is if he became incapacitated due to illness. Do the Republicans go with Pence or elect someone else?

[dahamsta]

They said Trump wouldn't win in 2016. Even Trump was shocked by the win. He didn't even want to win.

[The Fly]

1312525833505058816

[The Fly]

Also...Melania's handling it, statistically, like it's supposed to be handled.

[samhaydenjr]

Trump has no chance of winning the election 8 points behind with a month to go with the electorate so polarized. What would be interesting is if he became incapacitated due to illness. Do the Republicans go with Pence or elect someone else?

Voter Suppression
Voter Intimidation
Sympathy Vote
Electoral College
Legal Challenge to result
6-3 majority on The Supreme Court
"Proud Boys - Stand back and stand by"

I know some of those aren't scenarios where he actually wins the election but it's far from over - it's going to be a rough couple of months

[Real ale Madrid]

Hillary Clinton was roughly 4% ahead of Trump with a month to go, Biden has double that plus a healthy advantage in all of the key states. Could be wrong of course but I'm not sure Putin and the boys can even pull this one off.

[dahamsta]

The stuff going around about the video and the photos in Walter Reed is hilarious. If it came from the red side, we'd be calling them conspiracy theories, and I'm sure that's what the Trumpists are saying. However factually, the EXIF data on the two "separate" photos of him signing papers are just minutes apart, which is just typical Trump bull****.

I've no idea about the veracity of the "blank pages" and edited video (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/trump-walter-reed-video-coronavirus-edited-cough-b767039.html) claims, but I wouldn't put it past them for a second.

[dahamsta]

Putting my mod hat on for a second, I should add the standard warning you've been seeing around other forums and platforms the last few days about his death; and the usual note about how it's not just about the person themselves, but also their family and friends.

Oh...

[osarusan]

The photos of him 'working' and signing blank paper isn't an issue for me. Just a standard photo op, a bit amateur that they got caught using marker and paper.

Trump getting into an SUV (sealed shut to prevent chemical attack) and going for a drive around, with others in the car, is a real act of irresponsibility though. Perhaps all those in the SUV already had Covid-19; otherwise they have just had a totally needless potential exposure.

[NeverFeltBetter]

His team must have been absolutely desperate to arrest the narrative that he was doing worse than what people were saying.

[pineapple stu]

Yeah, and then the medical team come out to say "Yeah, he was put on supplemental oxygen twice in the last 24 hours, but sure he could be released as early as tomorrow", which is just bizarre. Those two things shouldn't really be in the same sentence. Being put on oxygen is a sign that a nasty virus that targets the lungs is taking hold, not that you're about to go home.

[dahamsta]

His team must have been absolutely desperate to arrest the narrative that he was doing worse than what people were saying.

It was about the markets. They were just about to open. They don't care about people, just money.

[Real ale Madrid]

I see that @The Fly has gained some new found fame off the back of the Vice-Presidential debate last night!

[The Fly]

I see that @The Fly has gained some new found fame off the back of the Vice-Presidential debate last night!

:rofl:

In all seriousness though, it's looking good for Biden now. His lead in the polls is so substantial and consistent that it's hard to see the mass of silent Trump voters, untapped by the polls, tipping the balance in the Donald's favour.

However, whilst a Biden win will calm the nerves of many Americans (and those outside of the States who've become emotionally invested in the soap opera of American politics) I think that it could signal a kind of point of no return for that country.

[dahamsta]

Overconfidence has been the downfall of many a politician. Remember the big numbers for Bernie, and then no-one actually got up off their hole to vote for him?

Republicans may be utter cretins right now, but they damned well vote.

[Mr A]

And also, the demographics that tend to vote republican tend to have it easier in terms of voting- some of the obstruction to people exercising their right to vote over there is absolutely staggering.

[dahamsta]

Yes, local GOP chapters putting out illegal ballot boxes is the one this week, but they've literally dismantled post sorting machines and have slowed the USPO way, way down. Plus there's the standard gerrymandering and the country-scale gerrymandering they're trying to do by halting the census.

Republicans only ever win by cheating.

[backstothewall]

Yes, local GOP chapters putting out illegal ballot boxes is the one this week, but they've literally dismantled post sorting machines and have slowed the USPO way, way down. Plus there's the standard gerrymandering and the country-scale gerrymandering they're trying to do by halting the census.

Republicans only ever win by cheating.

This is true, but the trouble with doing this is that eventually you **** off the country enough that they give the other guys a go, the first item of business for them is addressing all the cheating, and all of a sudden you find yourselves in a fair fight that you're totally unprepared for.

[NeverFeltBetter]

TBH I wouldn't trust the Dems to actually be willing to do the leg work in making it more of a fair fight. The Obama supermajority was one of the most wasted opportunities in political history in my opinion.

[dahamsta]

I've always disliked the hero worship of Obama. He was better than all of the other recent Presidents, but that doesn't make him a great President. He was "good" at best.

[tetsujin1979]

Obama was clearing the very low bar set by Bush, and whoever comes after Trump will just have to act like a decent human being.

[John83]

I've always disliked the hero worship of Obama. He was better than all of the other recent Presidents, but that doesn't make him a great President. He was "good" at best.
He was charismatic and blazed a trail for African Americans. He pushed for better healthcare in the US. He spent 6 of his 8 years without control of both houses, which hamstrung him badly. He was a disaster on privacy and typically aggressive militarily overseas. (Maybe someone has a more nuanced opinion of his foreign policy, but it seems to me like he bombed the **** out of 6 or 7 countries to achieve almost nothing.) On balance, he was more good than bad, which is exceptional in terms of US presidents.

[Trequartista20]

Obama was clearing the very low bar set by Bush, and whoever comes after Trump will just have to act like a decent human being.

In simple terms, this.

Trump always seemed like a short-term, slightly freak, anomaly.

The BLM movement is huge. A historic event. The status quo of cops being able to shoot black kids in the back with impunity was never acceptable, and will never will never be able to pass without very major consequences, now.

[samhaydenjr]

In simple terms, this.

Trump always seemed like a short-term, slightly freak, anomaly.

The BLM movement is huge. A historic event. The status quo of cops being able to shoot black kids in the back with impunity was never acceptable, and will never will never be able to pass without very major consequences, now.

Unfortunately I don't think he's an anomaly - he's the culmination of the growth of the far-right within the Republican Party and they're not going to go away with one modest defeat. It will take three or four landslide victories for the Democrats and a concerted effort by what moderate Republicans to take back their party to beat them back

[Real ale Madrid]

Its looking likely at this stage that Biden will win the election comfortably, and the Democrats will hold the Senate and the House after the election. A nice legacy for the Donald. With any bit of luck he will throw a tantrum and quit the night after the election.

See FiveThirtyEight's analysis here

Presidential:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Senate:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
House
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/

They also wrote an interesting piece pre 2016 election on why Trump was literally a polling error behind to Clinton when others noted that he had no chance.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

[NeverFeltBetter]

I see one of the links there brings up the possibility of Texas "turning blue". That's something that I have seen posited as a game-changer for as long as I have been following American politics - I suppose since 2000 - but always seemed like pie-in-the-sky thinking. For Biden to be projected at a 1 in 3 chance of winning that state is incredible, and is hard to believe in many ways. If it was a "landslide", I suppose it could happen, but, as always, it seems too soon.

[dahamsta]

Trump always seemed like a short-term, slightly freak, anomaly.

It ain't over yet. And it ain't as simple as Trump losing the election. If it's a landslide, on the night, he'll probably slink off with his tail between his legs, but that's unlikely. It's more likely that the live vote on the night will be closer, and Trump will try to exclude the postal votes as fraudulent. He will try a coup. He already is. It's his nature.


The BLM movement is huge. A historic event. The status quo of cops being able to shoot black kids in the back with impunity was never acceptable, and will never will never be able to pass without very major consequences, now.

It is huge, and it is historic, but you're talking like it's over, or nearly over. It's not even close. It's still happening, and until the cop unions are brought under control - not abolished, which would be very, very wrong - but controlled, it will continue to happen.

And don't forget CBP. And don't forget ICE. And don't forget the Electoral College. And the Supreme Court. And the unbalanced power of the Senate. And. And. And.

[NeverFeltBetter]

There is a lot fundamentally wrong with the American system - government, judiciary, electoral everything - that a Biden win won't solve. There has to be some kind of backbone after the fact, a willingness to "stack" the Supreme Court, to enact the "nuclear option" and a refusal to engage in the sort of bi-partisan compromising that ruined the chance that was the super-majority. In essence, they would have to play by the same rules as the GOP does. Biden isn't the President to do that, unless he's done a masterful job at throwing up a centrist facade. Perhaps Harris will be, if, like I would hesitantly guess, she'll be put forward in 2024.

But they have to win first. I do think Biden will win, and I also think Trump will crow about voter fraud and use the Supreme Court as a political weapon to try and steal it. I don't know what happens after that. It is quite scary to see the country that prides itself on a history of smooth transition of power being in such a state. It makes me think about 1932 here and how FF taking power for the first time happened with TD's carrying guns in their pockets, how alien it all seems reading it in a history book. But there America is, not all that far away.

[samhaydenjr]

Ladies and gentlemen... I give you the new Saviour of Democracy... Borat Sagdiyev! https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rudy-giuliani-borat-video-maria-bakalova-b1211157.html

[osarusan]

4 days to go now.

Biden with a national lead, and leads in the swing states, but it's the latter that matters, and those leads are solid but not massive.

Hard to know how much impact the Hunter Biden laptop story will have. If there really is much smoking gun material on it, they did a terrible job of exploiting it - it has come out in this dripfeed of rumour, and too late also, with a serious chunk of the electorate already having voted.

I'd expect Biden to pick up much the same vote, in much the same places, as Clinton did - I think the perception of her as turning off Democrats is exaggerated - she got the same number of votes as Obama in 2012.

More than anything, I don't think Trump will pick up any significant number of votes compared to 4 years ago - I can't imagine there are many at all who didn't vote for him 4 years ago who have been convinced to do so by his performance as president. I think there is a cohort who will vote for him no matter what (and another cohort, with an obvious overlap, who will vote for any Republican no matter what), but there will be those who won't vote for him, especially after his ongoing performance regarding Covid-19 (not that it's all his fault by any means, but he has said pretty much the worst thing he could say at every opportunity).

[Neish]

Trump encouraging his supporters for running a Biden bus out of a city in the big trucks on a busy highway was shameless nut not really shocking

Also perplexed that anyone who watched the BBC documentary last night on the Trump admin's handling of Covid-19 and is still a Trump supporter. Its blatantly obvious they new this was a major threat from early Jan 2020 but continued to play it dow, bend the truth and outright lie about infection & death rates for 8-10 weeks

[tetsujin1979]

There's a real sinister side to Trump's recent claims that the US is "rounding the turn" with regard to COVID cases, even as record numbers of infections are announced on a daily basis.
If he does lose the election, and cases continue to rise, there's no doubt that Trump will claim that things were improving in October, but since Biden was elected, the virus has surged and the new president is solely to blame.

[dahamsta]

I'm tempted to watch the election overnight, there's a fair chance it'll be flipping nutty. I don't have live TV though, apart from whatever's available via the Play store on an Nvidia Shield. Is Sky's coverage any good? Or will I just be frustrating myself?

[John83]

He really is the living embodiment of fake news, isn't he? How do you engage with someone who has that kind of relationship with reality? Anyone fact checking him just gets snowed under, and people don't seem to care anyway. So he lies, and everyone knows he's lying, and then the lies distort the conversation anyway. I used to think propaganda had to be clever, but he just ****s into everyone's newsfeed.

[John83]

I'm tempted to watch the election overnight, there's a fair chance it'll be flipping nutty. I don't have live TV though, apart from whatever's available via the Play store on an Nvidia Shield. Is Sky's coverage any good? Or will I just be frustrating myself?
No idea, but I bet there'll be live blogging all over the place, from news channels and amateurs.

[tetsujin1979]

I'm tempted to watch the election overnight, there's a fair chance it'll be flipping nutty. I don't have live TV though, apart from whatever's available via the Play store on an Nvidia Shield. Is Sky's coverage any good? Or will I just be frustrating myself?
Should be some sort of live coverage available on YouTube?

[osarusan]

If he does lose the election, and cases continue to rise, there's no doubt that Trump will claim that things were improving in October, but since Biden was elected, the virus has surged and the new president is solely to blame.

If he loses, and after he is gone, I doubt we'll hear from much him again tbh.

If and when he is out of the White House, he's not getting back there, and he has no actual interest in politics.



I used to think propaganda had to be clever, but he just ****s into everyone's newsfeed.

As Steve Bannon so eloquently put it, “Flood the zone with ****,” and Trump supporters, alt-right groups, 4chan, Gab, and sites like Infowars and Breitbart do just that, putting out a tidal wave of junk news to overwhelm the traditional stuff. Then, in the disinformation ecosystem, it is picked up on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter—and by your Uncle Milton who informs you that George Soros secretly hatched COVID-19.

https://time.com/5860215/domestic-disinformation-growing-menace-america/

[Real ale Madrid]

I'm tempted to watch the election overnight, there's a fair chance it'll be flipping nutty. I don't have live TV though, apart from whatever's available via the Play store on an Nvidia Shield. Is Sky's coverage any good? Or will I just be frustrating myself?

RTE wouldn't be the worst, will be over and back to CBS news as well and they will call states as quickly as anyone. Might be as good as anything else.

[backstothewall]

Should be some sort of live coverage available on YouTube?

I'm watching it on ABC News via Youtube

[Real ale Madrid]

John King basically has his own show on CNN. Its great.

[dahamsta]

I forgot about casting, I'm flipping between ABC, NBC and Sky. Don't think CNN are live on YouTube, must see if they have an app.

Not sure I'll last much longer. The taking heads are boring as feck.

[Charlie Darwin]

The bookies have gone hard for Trump. It's over.

[Real ale Madrid]

3.00am - Trump needed a big polling error in all of the key states and he looks like he has it. Bedtime.

[dahamsta]

The f*ck is wrong with Americans?

[The Fly]

Cash out for £530 or wait for £795?

[NeverFeltBetter]

Might be a bit premature. Arizona changing some opinions. We'll see.

[osarusan]

Just woke up and looking at results so far.

Whatever the final result is, these pollsters who apparently made all the relevant corrections to their models after 2016 so that they would be super-duper accurate this time can f**k right off again.