Republic of Ireland V Gibraltar(A) 4th Sept & Georgia(H) 7th Sept 2015 - Euro 2016 Q

[DannyInvincible]

Did you even see the post were I showed that Long's goal per minute ratio in this campaign is much higher than Robbies?

Hold your horses; it's a difference of 18 minutes in favour of Long. Not quite as definitive as you'd like to suggest, and Stutts demonstrates why it's over-simplistic to rely solely on such a statistic. I'm not against giving Long more time/starts. I'd like to see him play more (and, as I've said, would love for him to take his opportunities and assume Robbie's mantle, not just because I'm a fan of the guy, the way he plays and his attitude, but because it'd be good for the long-term future of Irish international football), but I have the luxury to say that as a supporter. What do I have to lose in making such demanding or expectant declarations? My job isn't on the line. As such, I can totally understand O'Neill's perspective on it.

O'Neill is being safe or conservative in continually opting for Robbie, no doubt, but he has to make the decision he feels will have the highest likelihood of ensuring goals; our qualification and his job depends wholeheartedly upon it. He's going with a proven and record goal-scorer over a player for whom expectations, no matter how many goals you claim you can guarantee he'd score against Gibraltar*, are still grounded more in hope than any sense of form, pedigree or consistency. What I'm saying really is that I can appreciate both sides of the argument; it's all very much debatable. Long is banging on the door, but he needs to step through and throw Robbie out. The goals against Poland and last night helped his case, without doubt, but his omissions from the starting line-up aren't quite at the level of intolerable just yet.

*It's easy to fall into a sort of "absent messiah" type of thinking when things aren't going as you'd like. In recent years, Andy Reid, Steven Reid and Stephen Ireland have all been erected as saviour figures and had their status/ability/potential utility inflated within the Irish media primarily on account of their absence. There's a tendency to assume that what we don't have or what we aren't utilising must be better than what we do have simply by virtue of the fact that what we are utilising isn't getting the results we want. It's very appealing as it gives the impression we have all the answers, but it's an appeal to ignorance and might seem convincing only in the sense that it is unverifiable, so ultimately disprovable too. It's nothing more than an assumption though. You can't guarantee that Shane Long would have scored the same or a greater number of goals against Gibraltar than Robbie's total against them.


At the risk of asking a silly question, but can you elaborate on that a bit? Obviously if we drop points it could very well be a defining game, but otherwise it's just a fairly standard qualification game where three points are required and very much expected. I would have definitely seen other games as being more defining, I wouldn't have gave the statement a second thought if it was made before the Scotland home game, for example.

I haven't seen the RTÉ panel's discussion on the Georgia game (how do others overseas manage since Hola stopped working?), but, from reading some of the comments here (http://www.the42.ie/ireland-georgia-sadlier-oneill-2313028-Sep2015/), it came across as being very much grounded in negative speculation.


You would assume we can’t give Martin O’Neill a new contract if we finish fourth in this group. That’s the likely outcome if we lose on Monday.

Whilst that may be true, is it remotely likely we will lose tomorrow in the first place? No. We're favourites to win for a reason and I expect we will edge it, without taking the tricky opposition for granted.


If [O’Neill] doesn’t win it, it will be the worst performance of an Irish team in the group for a long, long time. It’s a defining moment for him and his management team.

This is probably one of the toughest groups we've had in a while, no? And sure you could just as easily say, "if O'Neill picks up 5/7 points from the remaining games, it'll be a very respectable performance". It's not completely beyond the realms of possibility, is it? We're on 12 points now; just as a reminder, we finished our last group on 14 points with Trap in charge. Brady regularly jumped to Trap's defence and I'm not sure he would have come out with statements like the above in respect of the Italian. In Stan's ill-fated Euro 2008 qualifying campaign, we finished on 17 points, but also worth noting that there were seven teams in the group on that occasion. We'll see what transpires, but I think talk of dropping points at home to Georgia (who we've already beaten away) is needlessly premature and melodramatic.

[Stuttgart88]

Someone should remind Brady that we did pretty shyte in our last group, clear 4th behind Germany, Sweden and Austria. Someone should call him on such hyperbolic claptrap.

[DeLorean]

Think it'll be the same team as Gibraltar except Coleman in for Christie.

I probably wouldn't hope for much different. Only one I'd like to see included would be Long, but I think it's right to start Keane and with it bound to be a cagey, nervous affair, Whelan will be needed to keep things settled and tight in the first 60.

Georgis arn't great, but they're not bad and they have goals in them. I'd resist any attempt to go all-out-attack from the off.

I think my line up looks more offensive than it is in a way. It's not necessarily what I would go with, just a suggestion to get over the Long/Keane conundrum. You could always play Whelan instead of Hendrick but I just think it's overkill given the opposition we're facing. We should absolutely take the game to them from the start, high tempo and for once look to play with confidence instead of fear. I'm not convinced Georgia do have goals in them either, they got a freakish goal against us in Tbilisi but we were fairly untroubled otherwise. They scored one goal in five games against everybody else excluding Gibraltar. I'm not suggesting taking them lightly obviously but I'd expect more than keeping it tight, that should and will be their mentality. We're by far the better team and playing at home. I think Long, Walters and Hendrick/Hoolahan would be ideal to press high and cause a bit of panic for the Georgians. There would be no shortage of work rate defensively either.

[Fixer82]

Someone should remind Brady that we did pretty shyte in our last group, clear 4th behind Germany, Sweden and Austria. Someone should call him on such hyperbolic claptrap.

I find Brady painfully negative. No wonder he was so liked by Trap.
His disdain for Roy Keane is always bubbling under the surface which clouds his judgement also I feel.

Sadlier is still trying to carve out a career for himself by being argumentative and Dunphy is already plotting the demise of O'Neill's successor, whomever that may be.

Giles and Cunningham are the only ones on the RTÉ panel whose opinions I would give any credence to.

[SwanVsDalton]

I think my line up looks more offensive than it is in a way. It's not necessarily what I would go with, just a suggestion to get over the Long/Keane conundrum. You could always play Whelan instead of Hendrick but I just think it's overkill given the opposition we're facing. We should absolutely take the game to them from the start, high tempo and for once look to play with confidence instead of fear. I'm not convinced Georgia do have goals in them either, they got a freakish goal against us in Tbilisi but we were fairly untroubled otherwise. They scored one goal in five games against everybody else excluding Gibraltar. I'm not suggesting taking them lightly obviously but I'd expect more than keeping it tight, that should and will be their mentality. We're by far the better team and playing at home. I think Long, Walters and Hendrick/Hoolahan would be ideal to press high and cause a bit of panic for the Georgians. There would be no shortage of work rate defensively either.

Sure, but if I was to replace anyone it would be McCarthy. I'd rather have Whelan sitting and protecting the CBs if the full-backs are to push on. I don't think any of them do as defensively sound a job at the moment than Whelan.

And honestly, I think overkill is very possible - we've been caught cold at home before plenty of times and I still think Georgia are capable in front of goal. For me, if we keep a clean sheet, we'll win the game because I reckon we'll get at least one goal.

[Crosby87]

Did you guys see the roy keane thing with the painting? That is hilarious.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/odd/roy-keane-lookalike-found-in-renaissance-painting-1-3877941

[IsMiseSean]

And honestly, I think overkill is very possible - we've been caught cold at home before plenty of times and I still think Georgia are capable in front of goal. For me, if we keep a clean sheet, we'll win the game because I reckon we'll get at least one goal.

Georgia looked decent on the break against Scotland. Broke away a few times in the 1st half and should have scored just lacked the composure.

[paul_oshea]

the defining game is always the next most important game or the most important game looking back by the end of the qualifying campaign.

to me regardless unless we get to a play off his most defining will be Poland away. he will have done something no one else has achieved in a very a long time, if we beat Poland.

[paul_oshea]

Georgia looked decent on the break against Scotland. Broke away a few times in the 1st half and should have scored just lacked the composure.

they did and they looked decent against Germany at home In the second half on the break as well.

[tricky_colour]

the defining game is always the next most important game or the most important game looking back by the end of the qualifying campaign.

to me regardless unless we get to a play off his most defining will be Poland away. he will have done something no one else has achieved in a very a long time, if we beat Poland.


Could be quite interesting if Poland are have nothing to play for ie they will get second place irregardless
and have nothing to play for, mind you that might make them play even better, on the other hand they
might not be too bothered if they lose ;)

[paul_oshea]

Ya I meant though that the last game against Poland would not be a nothing game, unless scotland completely capitulate the Poland game, assuming a win tomorrow, will be a big one.

[tricky_colour]

Yea this game is gonna be no pushover.

Wondering if Georgia can still nab 3rd spot?

I think they can if they beat German and the rest.

[DannyInvincible]

Yea this game is gonna be no pushover.

Wondering if Georgia can still nab 3rd spot?

I think they can if they beat German and the rest.

Mathematically, they can. They're six points behind us with nine points to play for.

[Fixer82]

People keep saying we've only beaten two teams ranked higher than us in 14 years. Holland is one obviously but I can't figure out the other one?? Anyone?

[Charlie Darwin]

People keep saying we've only beaten two teams ranked higher than us in 14 years. Holland is one obviously but I can't figure out the other one?? Anyone?
Slovakia

[tricky_colour]

Mathematically, they can. They're six points behind us with nine points to play for.

Yes, they can get 15 points in total which would put them above Poland who have 14 if Poland lost all their matches.
However that would put us on 15 too. However if they beat us they could I think actually get 2nd place!!
Requires a storming finish from Gibraltar though!
So in theory they could I think finish 2nd.
German win all, Poland lose all Gibraltar win all Scotland just get 3 points from Poland

Finishing like this due to Gibraltar beating us 10-1 in Dublin!!

Germany 25
Gibraltar 15
Ireland 15
Poland 14
Scotland 14
Gibraltar 9

[Fixer82]

Slovakia

Nice one. I remember them not being great though. Whereas Holland in 2001 had some definite superstars

[Crosby87]

I'll ask again AND include the Roy Painting thing, so we all be Hindu.
What are your best starting?

[tricky_colour]

People keep saying we've only beaten two teams ranked higher than us in 14 years. Holland is one obviously but I can't figure out the other one?? Anyone?

It should get easier as we slide down the rankings more teams ranked higher than us! :p

[tricky_colour]

I'll ask again AND include the Roy Painting thing, so we all be Hindu.
What are your best starting?

Quite hard to say what will be the best line up.

Plucking the names out of a hat is the way to go!

[SkStu]

I'll ask again AND include the Roy Painting thing, so we all be Hindu.
What are your best starting?

What are your best starting, Crosby?

[DeLorean]

Just for you Crosby... I think he'll go with this (but maybe Long for Keane)

Given
Coleman
O'Shea
Clark
Brady
Whelan
McCarthy
Hendrick
Hoolahan
Walters
Keane

[the doc]

Hold your horses; it's a difference of 18 minutes in favour of Long. Not quite as definitive as you'd like to suggest, and Stutts demonstrates why it's over-simplistic to rely solely on such a statistic. I'm not against giving Long more time/starts. I'd like to see him play more (and, as I've said, would love for him to take his opportunities and assume Robbie's mantle, not just because I'm a fan of the guy, the way he plays and his attitude, but because it'd be good for the long-term future of Irish international football), but I have the luxury to say that as a supporter. What do I have to lose in making such demanding or expectant declarations? My job isn't on the line. As such, I can totally understand O'Neill's perspective on it.

O'Neill is being safe or conservative in continually opting for Robbie, no doubt, but he has to make the decision he feels will have the highest likelihood of ensuring goals; our qualification and his job depends wholeheartedly upon it. He's going with a proven and record goal-scorer over a player for whom expectations, no matter how many goals you claim you can guarantee he'd score against Gibraltar*, are still grounded more in hope than any sense of form, pedigree or consistency. What I'm saying really is that I can appreciate both sides of the argument; it's all very much debatable. Long is banging on the door, but he needs to step through and throw Robbie out. The goals against Poland and last night helped his case, without doubt, but his omissions from the starting line-up aren't quite at the level of intolerable just yet.

*It's easy to fall into a sort of "absent messiah" type of thinking when things aren't going as you'd like. In recent years, Andy Reid, Steven Reid and Stephen Ireland have all been erected as saviour figures and had their status/ability/potential utility inflated within the Irish media primarily on account of their absence. There's a tendency to assume that what we don't have or what we aren't utilising must be better than what we do have simply by virtue of the fact that what we are utilising isn't getting the results we want. It's very appealing as it gives the impression we have all the answers, but it's an appeal to ignorance and might seem convincing only in the sense that it is unverifiable, so ultimately disprovable too. It's nothing more than an assumption though. You can't guarantee that Shane Long would have scored the same or a greater number of goals against Gibraltar than Robbie's total against them.



I haven't seen the RTÉ panel's discussion on the Georgia game (how do others overseas manage since Hola stopped working?), but, from reading some of the comments here (http://www.the42.ie/ireland-georgia-sadlier-oneill-2313028-Sep2015/), it came across as being very much grounded in negative speculation.



Whilst that may be true, is it remotely likely we will lose tomorrow in the first place? No. We're favourites to win for a reason and I expect we will edge it, without taking the tricky opposition for granted.



This is probably one of the toughest groups we've had in a while, no? And sure you could just as easily say, "if O'Neill picks up 5/7 points from the remaining games, it'll be a very respectable performance". It's not completely beyond the realms of possibility, is it? We're on 12 points now; just as a reminder, we finished our last group on 14 points with Trap in charge. Brady regularly jumped to Trap's defence and I'm not sure he would have come out with statements like the above in respect of the Italian. In Stan's ill-fated Euro 2008 qualifying campaign, we finished on 17 points, but also worth noting that there were seven teams in the group on that occasion. We'll see what transpires, but I think talk of dropping points at home to Georgia (who we've already beaten away) is needlessly premature and melodramatic.

Can't believe the lack of respect for Mr Trapattoni on here.
He was and still is a class above the joker in charge now, who in my opinion is a spent force.

[brine3]

People keep saying we've only beaten two teams ranked higher than us in 14 years. Holland is one obviously but I can't figure out the other one?? Anyone?

You could possibly include France over 90 mins in Paris.

[Fixer82]

You could possibly include France over 90 mins in Paris.

You could but I don't think it would count. That was the other team I thought it might be. Whelan and Andrews were sublime that night

[Fixer82]

Can't believe the lack of respect for Mr Trapattoni on here.
He was and still is a class above the joker in charge now, who in my opinion is a spent force.

O'Neill is a joker?
Is this Dunphy??
Eamon, is that you??

[Fixer82]

I'll ask again AND include the Roy Painting thing, so we all be Hindu.
What are your best starting?

My best line-up for our current squad/what i'd like to see:

GK Westwood
LWB Brady
CB O'Shea
CB Clark
RWB Coleman
DMF McCarthy
MF Hoolahan
MF Gibson
MF Grealish/Quinn/Arter
FW Keane/Long
FW Walters/Murphy

[DannyInvincible]

Can't believe the lack of respect for Mr Trapattoni on here.
He was and still is a class above the joker in charge now, who in my opinion is a spent force.

What did I say that was disrespectful to Trap? I was simply highlighting Brady's double standards and used the phrase "the Italian" so as to distinguish and make clear who I was referring to without using "him" or "Trap" for a third time; not because I was trying to be cold and dismissive. I have respect for Trap; you can respectfully criticise too. Sometimes, constructive criticism is the highest form of respect you can pay someone. With regard to Brady though, he wouldn't have been as critical of Trap when Trap was doing "just as badly" as O'Neill is supposedly doing now. Brady's talking about us being on course to one of the worst finishes ever, but you only have to look back at the last group to see we finished with a pretty sub-par 14 points. Would he ever single Trap out as being to blame for our worst record in a long time? I think not. If O'Neill's performance now is "bad" (although there are still 9 points to play for), then you cannot deny that Trap's last campaign would fall into the same bracket. If you're saying it shouldn't or doesn't, then you're applying a double standard and being blinded by what is more worship than respect.

[OwlsFan]

Hmm yeah, but the point is that Robbie is a great believer in the Sky leagues and the flash life, that's the point. He gave up after 6 months in Italy because it would have been too much hard graft to get into the team. So he went back to the Leeds and the Sky league, where he could be in the team and doing his cartwheels and be a crowd hero. That's his thing.

And now he was followed his wallet to LA to get the fun gig with the beaches and the girls.

I'm not begrudging him it. But he's no Roy Keane, Shay Given, Damien Duff, Steve Finnan, Kevin Doyle etc. These are guys who quite frankly trained their ****** off to get where they got and kept on improving as their careers went on.

If there's one thing that's difficult to say about Robbie Keane, it's that he improved himself as a player as his career went on.

The above post from brine3 over 4 years ago. It is personal as regards Robbie Keane. He could score a hat trick against Georgia and then be condemned for it. Score against Germany and he'd say it's his first against a big team in 85 years. He has Robbie down as a glory hunter and money seeker and wants beaches and girls. Not sure what Claudine would think of that. The British media think it's wonderful that Rooney scored against San Marino and is about to beat Bobby Charlton's record. brine3 thinks these goals are inconsequential. Most of us know what Robbie Keane has contributed and continues to contribute to Irish international football both as a player and a representative of the game. His days are numbered, sure, but I didn't see Walters or anyone else on the line to tap the ball in. Long may he continue.

As regards Georgia, the impetus is now with us. I am confident of a win. Possibly 3-1.

[Olé Olé]

I think he'll start the same side as he did against Gibraltar, except Coleman will replace Christie. I don't think McClean or Long will start, although they're being predicted in some corners of the media. I think Hendrick did enough to keep his place and Walters and Keane will lead the line as it seems to be MON's favourite partnership. Hoolahan wasn't great against Gibraltar but it's a home game and MON will fancy him ahead of McClean and McGeady, I think. But I wouldn't be surprised if Wes was dropped for any of McClean, McGeady and Quinn.

[jbyrne]

Shane Long comes on and scores a thumping header and doesn't get any credit. He also saved us a point against Poland.


that long goal v Poland was from about 2 yards and needed a deflection to take it past the keeper. hardly proves he is a better option than keane




Iceland play as a team with a plan. They have hardly any Premier League players. But they have a system and a belief that they can play together as a team. And they are top of their group and have taken six points off Holland. We have 15 times their population and we never took six points off a top team in qualifying.

for every Iceland there is a Holland, Serbia, Greece and Russia (good football nations who are underachieving). plucking the example of one or two surprise qualifiers proves nothing in relation to our own situation

[writerbk1969]

Playing a country ranked 147 in the world. No excuses O'Neill/Keane...Win or resign.

[DeLorean]

Should Strachan resign d'you reckon?

[jbyrne]

Playing a country ranked 147 in the world. No excuses O'Neill/Keane...Win or resign.

sure its always the managements fault when things go wrong

[Spudulika]

Ireland will win, Scotland will lose, Ireland will get a point against Germany or Poland, make the play-offs. Get pumped up, win - and we're going to win the Euros, Lose - and we've disgraced ourselves.

It's a no win situation.

Though as from the beginning I've predicted Ireland will finish 3rd and have a good chance to make the Euros. Media has been totally schizo and increasingly deranged with their coverage of Irish football.

[OwlsFan]

It is too early to start thinking about the Dutch in the play offs ? Of course it is but I just thought I'd throw that one out to whet the appetite ;) We will beat Georgia tonight (if I say that often enough, I'll believe it). It will then be all to play for

Euros will be a strange gathering this time round with possibly the likes of Iceland, Northern Ireland, Wales etc To think the two times we qualified we faced the cream of Europe: in 1988 we faced England, Soviet Union and the Netherlands and in 2012 Croatia, Italy and Spain.

[DeLorean]

The most difficult groups we could have got considering the group qualifiers contesting the final on both occasions.

[pineapple stu]

Euros will be a strange gathering this time round with possibly the likes of Iceland, Northern Ireland, Wales etc
What's strange is that they're all topping their groups - so would have qualified in previous formats as well.

Curious given the main complaint of the 24-team Euros was that dross like Iceland, Wales and the North could qualify and ruin everything.

[Drumcondra 69er]

Blog on Gibraltar game and trip for anyone interested.

http://afalsefirstxi.blogspot.ie/2015/09/let-christie-take-it.html

[DannyInvincible]

What's strange is that they're all topping their groups - so would have qualified in previous formats as well.

Curious given the main complaint of the 24-team Euros was that dross like Iceland, Wales and the North could qualify and ruin everything.

Many of the groups do seem somewhat "lop-sided", with perceived minnows doing well and supposed stronger teams (like Greece, Holland and Serbia) fumbling, so as to suggest a trend of sorts. I think the competition and ability level might well be more even across the board; more and more teams have a bare minimum level of professionalism and organisation nowadays, which is bound to have an evening or equalising effect. Gone are the days of eating crap the day before the game or whatever, and I think that's almost universally the case.

My brother suggests another theory to me though; he argues that the "inversely-ranked" groups might be a direct result of the new expanded 24-team format. Those perceived middling-to-weaker teams have now had a much greater chance of making it from the outset, so have greater incentive than previous years to really give it an all-out go, whereas, with qualification now, in theory, even easier for the traditionally-stronger teams, perhaps complacency has set in and motivation/morale-building has proven more difficult for them.

[paul_oshea]

Blog on Gibraltar game and trip for anyone interested.

http://afalsefirstxi.blogspot.ie/2015/09/let-christie-take-it.html

my screen is full of lines after reading part of that and my eyes are glazed over, its very difficult to make the pictures out as well. White on black is great for some people, but for others like myself its very difficult to read and keep the lines going.

Not a critique but just something worth thinking about :)

[tricky_colour]

Should Strachan resign d'you reckon?

He has to go.

[Crosby87]

Good luck today chaps. Are you all listening to that song Downtown by Macklemore to get ready?

[Stuttgart88]

my screen is full of lines after reading part of that and my eyes are glazed over, its very difficult to make the pictures out as well. White on black is great for some people, but for others like myself its very difficult to read and keep the lines going.

Not a critique but just something worth thinking about :)sounds exactly like a critique to me :)

[geysir]

sounds exactly like a critique to me :)
Sounds more like (for some reason) the browser's reader function is not existing or is not being utilised.
Once activated, it eliminates all ills.

[Closed Account]

After a lacklustre performance against Gibraltar and no real sign of any progress under O'Neill this campaign, I think Ireland will struggle tonight. 0-0 or a 1-0 win. Georgia beating Scotland has put a healthier look to the league table but hasn't changed anything from an Irish team point of view. We badly need a coherent gameplan, which in my opinion should be based around Shane Long. It will be interesting what team is put out tonight. Hoolahan has to play. I can't see any benefit in playing both McCarthy and Whelan and Whelan has been the better player of the two in this campaign. Coleman to come back in. Hendrick looked good on the right hand side and Walters deserves to play.
Given; Coleman, O'Shea, Clark, Brady; Whelan, Quinn; Hendrick, Hoolahan, Walters; Long.

[elroy]

Hopefully tonight will represent a significant point in MON reign and the beginning of his era in earnest. We largely have lacked direction, clear purpose and progress under his management. Tonight we need to grasp the second chance provided, a win tonight puts us in a very strong place for third and a good platform to go for second. There can be no excuses, a win is an absolute must for team and manager. For starters, I would like to see an approach focused around Holohan. Anyone that watched the scots game will have seen the physical and aerial strength of the Georgians, we will not win this game in the air.

[Colbert Report]

No way Keane is dropped from the starting lineup, although I think Long should start in his place.

GIVEN
COLEMAN CLARK O'SHEA BRADY
WHELAN MCCARTHY
WALTERS HOOLAHAN LONG
KEANE

Personally I'd drop Hoolahan and play Stephen Quinn in a three man CM. Shane Long simply cannot be left on the bench tonight!

[Closed Account]

Ireland XI v Georgia:
Given,
Coleman, O'Shea, Clark, Brady;
McCarthy, Whelan, Hendrick;
Hoolahan;
Walters, Keane
#COYBIG

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COUVeIIWoAApuvi.jpg
(https://twitter.com/hashtag/COYBIG?src=hash)

[elroy]

Happy with team. A little consistency for a change. Now let's do it. Take the initiative in the game and the group