Estonia V Ireland - Friday, 11th November 2011 - Euro 2012 Play Off 1st Leg

[BonnieShels]

I don't know how anyone can get as far as thoughts of Tuesday night celebrations.
I'm mulling over past playoff jinxes, I'm trapped, cornered, there are no options left, except to throw obsessive caution into the wind.

I'm throwing EXCESSIVE caution to the wind. Better than sh1t to the fan to be honest.

[back of the net]

Folks - I was asking earlier in the thread how long it will take for RTE to put the game up on RTE player after the final whistle , as im in Canada and will be in work.I was in contact with RTE and for those who cant watch it live, RTE informed me that it will be up on the Player in just 1 hour after the game...great stuff

[theworm2345]

**** the lot of you, my celebration or depression (you lot are jumping the gun) will consist of preparing for and then giving a 15 minute presentation later that night in the last class of the term. Hopefully we win handily in Estonia so the real celebration is Friday night.

[dr_peepee]

On club form Walters should start. Cox has done a decent job for us when he has been called upon but it does sound like trap will go with Walters. Probably the right call IMO, he has looked very good for stoke this year, notching a few goals along the way-has shown in club colours that he is well able for big occasions - Europa and fa cup last year.

I'd be surprised and disappointed if Trap doesn't start Walters with Keane.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Given our sh*te home form, we should all pray for a result tomorrow night.

Bear in mind, in Dublin, we can barely beat an egg these days...
So all you Trap-worshippers, take the shades off on that one.
No complaints on his away record, generally.


But we're more desperate to watch at home, than away. Which is against most kinds of football logic.

[BonnieShels]

A mate just mailed me saying 0-0 tomorrow. Toss.

It's gonna be a win tomorrow and an Armenia like performance on tuesday. I think I'll have to accept that today and tomorrow are gonna be write-offs. Sick with anticipation.

[Tipp Townie]

Yep my thoughts are that we'll get a good result in Estonia - perhaps a 1-0 win - before a nervy and awful-to-watch draw in Dublin.

I really want Walters to start in Tallinn but i think Trap will go with Cox.

I'm stuck indoors on Fri night so will probably be relying on a dodgy internet feed. Meh!

[Fixer82]

i fancy us to do them by a goal over there and a 0-0 draw at home. I think Walters will start. Nerves starting to kick in....woke up this morning worrying about it. Wonder will the FAI pay for my impending hernia operation

[Straightstory]

This Ireland team is boring, fearful, completely without flair or charisma, and is in the play-offs largely due to sheer luck. But, funnily enough, I think we'll qualify handily enough, and by the time next summer comes around we might actually start to play some decent football. It's a just hunch! Really looking forward to Estonia games and just relieved we were seeded and didn't draw Portugal or similar stronger opposition.

[TerryPhelan]

I dreamt on Tuesday night that we won 5-0 in Tallinn: St Ledger got two, Duff, Andrews and Keane getting the others.

Needless to say I woke up in a cold sweat and spent the rest of the night praying feverishly to the gods to forgive my arrogance and subconscious tempting of fate.

As D-day draws closer, I find myself locking down into classic 'high stakes Ireland game' mode - i.e. densely concentrated pessimism. It's a survival tactic, plain and simple. If you don't allow yourself get your hopes up, you don't get the same extremity of crushing disappointment. If you expect disappointment, well, you only stand to gain really.

I know - what a worldview!

All this aside, I predict a 1-1 in Tallinn (late Estonian equaliser) and 1-0 in Dublin. That is the most optimistic result my battered, faithful heart can allow.

And so it shall be - another 90 minutes spent cursing, swearing, ignoring those around me, rocking back and forth on the edge of my seat, fingers over the eyes, making deals with God... and screaming my lungs out for the Boys in Green.

COME ON!!!

[paul_oshea]

Great post, I think you sum up how most of us feel.

[shakermaker1982]

Predictions then for tomorrow night?

I'm gonna stick my neck out and say 2-1 Ireland. It was 1-1 all week (in my head) but today I'm feeling really confident.

[Razors left peg]

I have a feeling for 1-2 tomorrow night too... which will lead to a nail biting night on tuesday as we fight against complacency and not knowing whether to just defend the lead or go for another goal

[tetsujin1979]

read this article earlier about the fan movement to Go Green On November 15: http://belfastmediagroup.com/ireland-fans-to-go-green-on-november-15/
and this bit in particular caught my eye

Konstantin Vassiljev has top scored for his country this campaign, scoring five goals including both goals against Northern Ireland at Windsor Park. The rangy midfielder plays for Amkar Perm in the Russian Premier League.
Hmmm, I thought to myself, have Amkar played McGeady's Spartak this season, and , if so, what was the outcome?

And so to soccerway.com

Turns out, they have already played each other twice this season, with the results as follows:
8 May 2011
Spartak Moscow 1 - 2 Amkar Perm: http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2011/05/08/russia/premier-league/fk-spartak-moskva/fk-amkar-perm/1080114/
McGeady scored Spartak's goal midway through the second half to put them 1-0 up, and Vassiljev didn't play at all. Amkar scored twice late on to win
From the report on Spartak's official site: http://www.spartak.com/en/champ/main/rpl_2011_2012/10658/

Played in on the left channel via Artem Dzyuba’s header, Ari navigated around Sergei Narubin only to see his goal bound effort cleared by Andrei Sekretov to which Aiden McGeady quickly hammered the clearance attempt to the back of the net.

11 September 2011
Amkar Perm 0 - 1 Spartak Moscow: http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2011/09/11/russia/premier-league/fk-amkar-perm/fk-spartak-moskva/1080236/
This was McGeady's return from injury, and came on as a half time subsitute, coincidentally the same time Vassiljev was substituted for Amkar

So, while their respective teams have played each other, they've never been on the pitch at the same time.
McGeady has scored against Vassiljev's team, and he has yet to score against McGeady's team

Positive perspective:
If the results are repeated as above (2-1 away win in first game, 1-0 away win in second game) Ireland go through
McGeady has scored against Vassiljev's side

Negative perspective:
If the results go by team as above (McGeady's side losing to Vassiljev's side 2-1 at home and winning 1-0 away) Estonia go through.

In summary: you can prove anything with stats, and I think about the weirdest things in work when I'm supposed to be fixing issues

[geysir]

Folks - I was asking earlier in the thread how long it will take for RTE to put the game up on RTE player after the final whistle , as im in Canada and will be in work.I was in contact with RTE and for those who cant watch it live, RTE informed me that it will be up on the Player in just 1 hour after the game...great stuff
Can you view what's on the player?

[SwanVsDalton]

1-0 away, 2-1 at home. It'll be tighter than Michael Owen's hamstrings though.

[nigel-harps1954]

Estonia 0-1 Ireland , scrappiest of games, with some unlikely goalscorer in the likes of Paul McShane. The saturday newspapers hailing him as supersub with gobsheens like Roy Curtis on Sunday praising him and moaning about how he hasn't started all along.

Tuesday will be a different story. Estonia coming all guns blazing, going 1 up in Dublin and another supersub in Stephen Hunt scores an 81st minute goal to put us through.

[Lionel Ritchie]

If Ireland play with the level of consistency (even if that seems at times consistenly excruciating) we have shown in this group we should negotiate this tie with a bit of elbow room.

My concern would lie in the less quantifiable, unpredicable nth factors that sometimes come into play -like for example a freak injury or unwarranted (or not) sending off going against us. That's where this thing could spin out of control. My heart says we'll make it -my head says my heart's in for a bumpy ride ...and is full of **** to boot.

[Murfinator]

Here's some news you'll want to have avoided.

Of the 8 teams in the playoffs Ireland are the favourites to qualify. Odds wise we're considered 7 times more likely to qualify than Estonia.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/to-qualify

Ireland as favourites usually works out well, right? ;)

[Toolik]

Vunk will start, Lindpere will come off the bench, Tarmo Rüütli announced. Thus, I was wrong about Vunk.

[Wolfie]

I think a few of us a straying into complacency.

When do we ever make it easy on ourselves in these situations??????????? When????????

Supporting "Stats" and current standard of the respective teams are provisional in this tie.

First and foremost. Its a CUP TIE - not a regular qualifier.

Estonia will scrap for every ball on Friday and could well grow in confidence the longer the game goes on.

I'd expect quite a number of shots on our goal from distance, Estonia won't need to get behind our full backs and will be shooting on site. Only 1 has to go in.

I hope we boss the game and win as much as the next man, but I'm expecting a very tough game.

I won't even begin to think about the Dublin game until the weekend and will be praying we haven't a mountain to climb in that match.

[punkrocket]

Folks - I was asking earlier in the thread how long it will take for RTE to put the game up on RTE player after the final whistle , as im in Canada and will be in work.I was in contact with RTE and for those who cant watch it live, RTE informed me that it will be up on the Player in just 1 hour after the game...great stuff

Just be very careful negotiating your way to the game to avoid the result, might be better to get a trusted amigo with no interest to do it for you. Just a fleeting glance at an inopportune time.. or maybe it's better to get it over with quickly.

[tricky_colour]

Hunt has to take a peno. And he'll defo be on at that stage if it comes to it. I've never seen him miss one

I think he has, there is a Hunt misses penalty on youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgcLbNKoWe0

I assume it is Stephen Hunt, presumable for Reading.
Mind you it is over 3 years ago.
It looks like a good save though, nobody scores everyone.

Another article about Hunt 'stealing; a penalty from Doyle.
http://www.expressandstar.com/sport/wolverhampton-wanderers-fc/2011/10/31/stephen-hunt-fancied-taking-wolves-penalty-at-manchester-city/

I would defiantly have Hunt on the list, he has the confidence and that's a big help.

[Charlie Darwin]

Going through the related videos, I found one of Keith Andrews scoring a penalty for MK Dons in a Johnston's Paint Trophy final at Wembley. It seems he was their regular penalty taker. It's a very nice finish too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZqIhGKxhrw

[Murfinator]

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2011/1110/ireland_givens.html

Given is wary of estonia

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2011/1110/estonia_ruutli.html

Estonia manager is wary of Trapattoni.


Good ol respectful european media talk. I wonder if either side will have the courage to show up for the game at all given all the perilous dangers which seem to await them.

[Sullivinho]

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2011/1110/ireland_givens.html

Given is wary of estonia

http://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2011/1110/estonia_ruutli.html

Estonia manager is wary of Trapattoni.

Kink is afraid of McGeady (http://www.examiner.ie/sport/soccer/kink-estonia-fearful-of-mcgeady-threat-173478.html)

Estonia vs. Ireland: Brought to you by Xanax.

[geysir]

Going through the related videos, I found one of Keith Andrews scoring a penalty for MK Dons in a Johnston's Paint Trophy final at Wembley. It seems he was their regular penalty taker. It's a very nice finish too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZqIhGKxhrw
I'd go,
Andrews 1
Doyle/Walters 2
Fahy/Whelan 3
McGeady/Hunt 4
Robbie 5

[shakermaker1982]

I'd have Robbie going first. Get on the scoreboard straight away!

[French Toasht]

I'd have Robbie going first. Get on the scoreboard straight away!

Agreed. Depending on how things go, we could be beaten by the time Keanos penalty comes around. Your best penalty takers go first. Thats a golden rule. Doubt he will be on the pitch though if it comes to penalties. 5 games in 2 weeks, straight after an injury, highly unlikely he'll last 120 minutes. I expect he'll only last an hour tomorrow night and will be replaced by Cox. Hunt replacing Duff/McGeady and Fahey in for Whelan. The subs are often as predictable as the team.

[tetsujin1979]

Team announced: https://twitter.com/#!/FAIreland/statuses/134667777645617152

Team for tomorrow Given, Kelly, St.Ledger, Dunne, Ward, McGeady, Andrews, Whelan, Duff, Keane and Walters or Cox #IrlEst (https://twitter.com/#%21/search?q=%23IrlEst) #Euro2012 (https://twitter.com/#%21/search?q=%23Euro2012)

[SwanVsDalton]

Walters or Cox - do we have to phone in and vote or something?

[richieos]

Just noticed this, a real confidence boost:

McDonnellDan (http://twitter.com/#!/McDonnellDan) Daniel McDonnell



Estonia and Ireland have both played 12 games in 2011. Estonia have lost 7 [goal difference -11] - Ireland one loss [goal difference +16]

[geysir]

Agreed. Depending on how things go, we could be beaten by the time Keanos penalty comes around. Your best penalty takers go first. Thats a golden rule.
It's natural to think that you go with your best first but I don't go along with it being a golden rule. The pressure builds up with each kick.
I remember Chelsea had planned for Drogba to take the 5th penalty in the event of a penalty shoot out in that Euro cup final against Man U.

[Zizou]

Lets be honest, we should win this one lads. I do not believe in fate or any of that ****e so by saying this I'm not tempting it. I know we're all worried and we hope it goes smoothly and there isn't a shock, but lets remember, thats exactly what it would be, a major shock. I predict a dour dull 1-1 tom night followed by a comfortable 2-0 Tuesday night. And our first Euros since 88. Scorers? Keane in Tallinn, Dunne and Mc Geady in Dublin. Hopefully right in front of where I'm sitting!! :D

[Stuttgart88]

I wonder if either side will have the courage to show up for the game at all given all the perilous dangers which seem to await them.That's the rub. If we show up for it I think we can put the tie to bed on Friday night. If it all goes wrong we have a chance to recover on Tuesday. No excuse for being cagey. I'd like to see us start the way we did in Bulgaria.

[theworm2345]

http://img.rasset.ie/000506e010dr.jpg
Spiderman.

[dr_peepee]

Or the Semen flicker from Silence of the Lambs!!

[dr_peepee]

Is the Walters/Cox thing a tactical thing to keep Estonia guessing, I wonder. He hasnt bother with that lark before I know, but they are two different types of forward?

[SwanVsDalton]

Is the Walters/Cox thing a tactical thing to keep Estonia guessing, I wonder. He hasnt bother with that lark before I know, but they are two different types of forward?

No. The real surprise is it's going to be Andy Keogh. :bulgy:

[tricky_colour]

Going through the related videos, I found one of Keith Andrews scoring a penalty for MK Dons in a Johnston's Paint Trophy final at Wembley. It seems he was their regular penalty taker. It's a very nice finish too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZqIhGKxhrw

Yes, I'd have no problems with Keith taking one he has got a good shot on him anyway.

I wonder if it would be worth practising penalties like this, it certainly look effective when it works.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWLqMfJ0WsE

However I imagine it could also go horribly wrong, so perhaps not!

[Sullivinho]

http://img.rasset.ie/000506e010dr.jpg
Spiderman.

Crikey, playoff stress is having a savage effect on Manuela.

[koneinc]

Is anyone else still waiting on tickets for the home leg to arrive? No sign of my 4 tickets from ticketmaster yet, getting worried!

[richieos]

Is anyone else still waiting on tickets for the home leg to arrive? No sign of my 4 tickets from ticketmaster yet, getting worried!

Mine came this morning, in the unlikely event that they dont arrive on time you can ring ticketmaster and they'll hold them at the stadium for you. (assuming they still do that)

[koneinc]

Mine came this morning, in the unlikely event that they dont arrive on time you can ring ticketmaster and they'll hold them at the stadium for you. (assuming they still do that)

cheers richieos, I've mailed them, will check the post in the morning, fingers crossed!

[Serb]

My tickets for the recent Leinster -vs- Munster game never arrived, so I called them and they held them for me at the hotel beside Lansdowne Road.

[Stuttgart88]

It's natural to think that you go with your best first but I don't go along with it being a golden rule. The pressure builds up with each kick.
I remember Chelsea had planned for Drogba to take the 5th penalty in the event of a penalty shoot out in that Euro cup final against Man U.Panorama reported an academic study ages back (after another England penalty exit). They "proved" that the conventional wisdom of using your best kickers first was wrong. The later kicks have more pressure so you need your best kickers. They claimed that using Shearer first was counter-productive.

I'm not saying I agree mind you! I think it's important to get on the board early. Maybe have your strongest takers go 1, 3 and 5. The other two may wing it anyway. 1 to get points on the board. 3 to stabilise things if 2 misses, or to press home if they have missed one. 5 because it's likely to be critical one way or the other.

[AlaskaFox]

Is anyone else still waiting on tickets for the home leg to arrive? No sign of my 4 tickets from ticketmaster yet, getting worried!

Mine only came today too.

[DannyInvincible]

cheers richieos, I've mailed them, will check the post in the morning, fingers crossed!

Mine haven't arrived either although I'm guessing they may arrive a day or two after buyers in Ireland will receive theirs as I'm in Manchester.

The Ticketmaster site tells me:


Your tickets are being processed.

If you have not received your tickets within 72 hours of the event please contact us no later than 24 hours before the event.

I should receive them by Saturday evening then, but does the fact they are being processed mean they haven't been dispatched yet? They've been processing them for the past fortnight.

[boovidge]

My tickets usually turn up a few months late so I always have to collect them at the ticketmaster office. I'd be very surprised if they came on time for this one.

[the bear]

no sign of mine either. the ticketmaster booth is poxy to have to get out to if arriving by train