Election 2011 - General

[bennocelt]

Wouldn't be the worst. I don't like SF, but I think labour could temper their crazy a little!

Funny, I see it the other way round. If SF could temper the Labour guys and their silly notions:D

[BonnieShels]

Well the FF charm offensive began in earnest on Monday's FFrontline. Then we had commentators talking about Cowens competence in interviews over the last few days. And then there's the interview on FFTV with the propagandist-in-chief O'Callaghan.

We are where we are.

[mypost]

then there's the interview on FFTV with the propagandist-in-chief O'Callaghan.

:o:o:o

MOC is just easy on politicians, whether it's high profile interviews, or election debates. Her moderating to a cut-throat row in the studio is "we have to leave it there".

[BonnieShels]

:o:o:o

MOC is just easy on politicians, whether it's high profile interviews, or election debates. Her moderating to a cut-throat row in the studio is "we have to leave it there".

Ah now, she's worse than that. Definitely gets hard nipples talking to the Natural Party of Government. Sigh. Can't believe I wrote that.

[Bluebeard]

Ah now, she's worse than that. Definitely gets hard nipples talking to the Natural Party of Government. Sigh. Can't believe I wrote that.

Can't believe what I am now picturing...

[BonnieShels]

Can't believe what I am now picturing...

MOC standing over Mattie McGrath and Ned O'Keeffe with a whip and a jar of Mayonnaise?

Miracle WHIP!


http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=XgmTvQ2nU88&feature=related
One of the most embarrassing things I ever heard. I heard the entire NOK bull. My lord it was tough to. He is the king of the gombeens.

[Rasputin]

http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=XgmTvQ2nU88&feature=related
One of the most embarrassing things I ever heard. I heard the entire NOK bull. My lord it was tough to. He is the king of the gombeens.
What can you say about that, wow just wow.
He reminds me of Killeen, going down with the FF ship old school style.

[BonnieShels]

And FF supporters wonder why we think they're strange?

[culloty82]

Media Leanings:

Will be interesting to see what angle the Sunday indo adopts in the coming months: they've already flip-flopped from being Ahern cheerleaders and writing Kenny off as a lightweight to being fully behind Fine Gael at the moment, and of course we've already discussed RTE.

FF: RTE TV and radio.
FG: Sindo, Indo, George Hook
Neutral: Local papers and radio, all other papers, Newstalk, Today FM.

[BonnieShels]

INM are just going back to their roots.
I wouldn't call today fm neutral... depends on the show.

[osarusan]

[B]Media Leanings:


FG:... Indo...

You cannot be serious. They're virtually a FF propaganda mechanism.

[Dodge]

Media Leanings:

Will be interesting to see what angle the Sunday indo adopts in the coming months: they've already flip-flopped from being Ahern cheerleaders and writing Kenny off as a lightweight to being fully behind Fine Gael at the moment, and of course we've already discussed RTE.

FF: RTE TV and radio.
FG: Sindo, Indo, George Hook
Neutral: Local papers and radio, all other papers, Newstalk, Today FM.

Newstalk are no more nuetral than the Indo. Disgracefully right wing

[bennocelt]

You cannot be serious. They're virtually a FF propaganda mechanism.

Yeah thats what I would have it as well. FF cheerleaders Harris, O Dea, Brendan o Connor, Ahearn's ex, Paidi o Shea, Coleman, etc. Jesus even O Rourke in the gah section had a pro FF rant one day asking teachers to support the government.
I suppose the always excellent Kerrigan and Ross are the counterbalance, but hardly worth buying a newspaper to read two articles.

"oirish" Daily Mail is FG. Badly got it wrong last time around on morning of elections with a frontpage saying FG had done it.

The way FF are going to spin this is people like Mattie Mcgrath and others will say that they are representing old style FF and hope this will wash. Of course FF to me were always bent right from Dev up, but people still vote for them

[BonnieShels]

Right on cue... So that's Monday morning sown up for a barrage at FG on Morning Ireland and News at One.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1212/bailout.html

The Government Chief Whip John Curran has called on Fine Gael to back next Wednesday's Dáil vote on the EU-IMF rescue package.
The Government Chief Whip John Curran has called on Fine Gael to act in the national interest by backing next Wednesday's Dáil vote on the EU-IMF rescue package.
Mr Curran said any party voting against the funding package should explain where the money will come from to fund public services without this facility.

Phew... crisis averted... FG are voting against it.

[Macy]

Neutral: Local papers and radio, all other papers, Newstalk, Today FM.
Newstalk isn't at all neutral, as Dodge says right wing - it even has Marc Coleman hosting a show ffs! Lunchtime under Kiberd has been ridiculous recently for it's right wing agenda, and while Yates tries hard to be politically neutral between FF and FG, there's no way you could describe the show as neutral in a left v right sense. Moncrieff possibly an exception, but I've even heard your man on Culture Shock being less than neutral.

Today FM - credit where due, I think Cooper is about as neutral as they get. I've previously mentioned Gift Grub soft soaping Ahern, and other FF's and generally being hard on FG and Labour, and how that influenced Aherns image. I don't think Today FM was immune from the owners address the previous few budgets either, and obviously shares the Newstalk newsroom.

Very few of the rest of the national media is neutral. Examiner is right wing. Irish Times gives all a voice largely, but editorially it's pretty conservative (it didn't cover itself in glory during the Lisbon2 referendum for supposed balance. Any of the murdoch papers, including The Sun are right wing. The Star is really the editors mouthpiece - not sure whether it's coherent for one party, but really gone after the Unions so right wing. The Daily Mail - enough said.

I really don't know about local media - probably depends on editors and owners. I wouldn't necessarily have them down as neutral - looking at which columns the buy in is normally a bit of a giveaway.

For all the leftist media bs, most of the media in this state are right wing - it's either FF or FG - the few left learning commentators stand out because they are the exception not the rule.

[BonnieShels]

George Hook going to Town on Enda Kenny on newstalk. Can anyone confirm if it was today or what? I was listening to the last word.

[Mr A]

One wonders how the wikileaks thing will affect Adams chances. His denials of IRA membership are laughable and I for one don't believe for a minute that he didn't know about the Northern Bank robbery in advance.

He's trying to be clever by deflecting this on to Bertie (and mentioning his peculiar relationship with the banks) but it still serves as a reminder that a lot of SF have a very dark past. And it's not very far in the past either so it lends some of their holier than thou attacks on other parties the tinge of hypocrisy.

Somehow though, I don't think it'll matter much in Louth and he'll still get elected. Although it'd could get interesting if a few of the other candidates there were able to land a few political punches on this one.

The real impact could be in other constituencies, and just like the last election Adams could prove to be SFs greatest electoral handicap.

[Macy]

Who do you believe - Ahern or Adams. Adams has much more credibility!

I wonder did FF leak it to wikileaks? They couldn't have timed it better.

[Mr A]

Don't see how FF could leak an American government cable to be honest.

And I'd believe Ahern over Adams any day of the week. I don't think Adams has much in the way of credibility when even his own supporters don't believe him.

[dahamsta]

Everything coming from Wikileaks at the moment comes from the "cablegate" batch, so this comes from an american embassy source.

Personally, my opinion would be that it's not credible that Adams wasn't a member of the IRA, and it's not credible that Ahern... well, nothing out of Ahern's mouth is credible, absolutely nothing. Therefore Adams wins in terms of credibility.

[Schumi]

Who do you believe - Ahern or Adams. Adams has much more credibility!

Adams has 10 times the credibility of Ahern. Of course, he also has the same credibility as him.

[Mr A]

Which Ahern are we talking about here? Both Bertie and Dermot Ahern have stood over what they said about Adams and McGuinness knowing in advance about the bank robbery. Dermot in this one would have a bit more credibility I believe and was the one I was referring to, but I think we're wandering from the point somewhat.

The central issue is whether the SF guys did know about it, and I think most people believe they probably did so.

[John83]

Adams has 10 times the credibility of Ahern. Of course, he also has the same credibility as him.
And they're completely credible factorial.

[Dodge]

Adams has 10 times the credibility of Ahern. Of course, he also has the same credibility as him.

Not enough maths humour on here, or in general. Kudos

[Macy]

And I'd believe Ahern over Adams any day of the week. I don't think Adams has much in the way of credibility when even his own supporters don't believe him.
Schumi probably sums up the credibility issue. None of the Aherns are cerdible - it was Bertie I was thinking off, but Dermot "No talks happening" Ahern is hardly believable either. However, anyone who is bothered whether Adams was in the IRA, or about the Northern Bank at this stage was never going to vote SF anyway or give them a preference.

[Billsthoughts]

in hindsight the northern bank job looks a case of getting your retaliation in first. Only the second biggest "bank robbery" in the history of the state at this stage! :)

[culloty82]

Around this time of year, local papers run a "Season's Greetings" page, where local politicians thank their constituents. You'ld think the two FF TD's had gone independent if you didn't know any better, as the party logo has "mysteriously" vanished from their messages.

[BonnieShels]

New Irish Times poll out tomorrow:

FG 30% +6
Lab 25% -8
FF 17% -7
SF 15% +7
Ind 11% +2
GP 2% n/c

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1215/politics.html


Support for Govt at lowest ever level - Poll
Updated: 21:01, Wednesday, 15 December 2010

Support for Fianna Fáil and Labour has dropped significantly, while Fine Gael and Sinn Féin receive a boost in an opinion poll for tomorrow's Irish Times.

Poll sees Fianna Fáil support fall further
Record low for Fianna Fáil in Red C poll
Poll shows support for Brian Cowen at 11%
Red C poll shows support for FF at 18%
FG drops further behind Labour - poll
Support for Fianna Fáil and Labour has dropped significantly, while Fine Gael and Sinn Féin receive a boost in an opinion poll for tomorrow's Irish Times.
The Ipsos-MRBI poll also shows satisfaction with the Government and its leaders at historic lows.
This is the first national opinion poll since the Budget, which may well have influenced the further collapse in support for Fianna Fáil, Brian Cowen, and the Government.
These are the lowest figures ever recorded in an Irish Times poll for Fianna Fáil, any Taoiseach or Government.
Support for Fianna Fáil is down 7% since September to just 17%.
Fine Gael gets a boost of 6% to move up to 30%, while Labour loses top slot, falling by 8% to 25%.
The Green Party is unchanged at 2%. Sinn Féin has almost doubled its support by moving up 7% to 15%. Independents and others are up 2% to 11%.
Satisfaction with the Government is down 5% to just 8% and 90% of voters are dissatisfied with the Government's performance.
Satisfaction with all the party leaders has dropped.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen is down 5% to 14%, Fine Gael's Enda Kenny is down 2% to 23% and Labour's Eamon Gilmore is down 5% to 44%.
The Greens' John Gormley is down 5% to 13% and Sinn Féin's Gerry Adams falls 1% to 28%.
The poll was carried out on Monday and Tuesday of this week among 1,000 voters nationwide.

Personally I don't get Gilmore's popularity I think he's brutal. Heaven forbid he goes 5 min without some sort of cliche or soundbite.

Good analysis here...

http://politicalreform.ie/2010/12/15/irish-times-ipsos-mrbi-opinion-poll-december-16/#more-1668

[legendz]

I won't be pleased until an election is called. I do not trust the current crowd and never have. In '97 I thought the country was in a healthy position. I've always thought it was harsh on Fine Gael and Labour not staying in power. Labour had upset people by going with Fianna Fail in '92 which is why they lost so much support.
How many people voted Fianna Fail in the last election? With a lot of people like that out there, it is hard to be confident.

[Eminence Grise]

Beverley Cooper Flynn and Noel Dempsey both standing down at the election. They'll be sorely missed....<scoff>

[Fr Damo]

BCF.....Epitome of all that FF stood for. Promoted Tax evasion, in bed with a developer (literally) and from political dynasty who showed contempt of anybody who questioned them.

Noel Dempsey, really effed up last year with the bad weather and his Malta holiday. Both would probably got back in the dail though this shows there true colours lie in so far as they can make more cash from a Td's pension (+minister's pension in the case of ND) and private sector income than they can as an opposition TD. The constituents of their respective parishes can now see them for exactly what they and many more like them actually are

[Macy]

Noel Dempsey, really effed up last year with the bad weather and his Malta holiday. Both would probably got back in the dail though this shows there true colours lie in so far as they can make more cash from a Td's pension (+minister's pension in the case of ND) and private sector income than they can as an opposition TD. The constituents of their respective parishes can now see them for exactly what they and many more like them actually are
Also his "achievements" include Electronic Voting, and lest we forget his fondness for the Government jet. Probably a fair amount of public sector wage bill savings in overtime between following cops in cars, and flight time for the boys from Baldonnell!

[Billsthoughts]

Labour had upset people by going with Fianna Fail in '92 which is why they lost so much support..

I never understood this at all. Electorate punished a party for going into government with Fianna Fail by voting Fianna Fail.
An Irish solution to an Irish problem!

[bennocelt]

I never understood this at all. Electorate punished a party for going into government with Fianna Fail by voting Fianna Fail.
An Irish solution to an Irish problem!

Not everybody votes for FF by the way

[BonnieShels]

I'm sure a fair few did bennocelt. The numbers say so.
Anyway, listening to the numbers the last few days there's a definite fall off into reality when labours numbers are analysed. SF and FG will be the big winners at this election.

[legendz]

From owners of football clubs who've spent recklessly and then look for bailouts, to bankers and the government, it's crazy how the people in power keep their positions.
It'll be interesting to see if the National Forum decide to run candidates.

[BonnieShels]

Well its Ireland. Not much more cam he said about that.
Oh the national forum and the united left. Great. I'll consider them...

[culloty82]

Newstalk and all local radio stations joined up to do a constituency-by constituency breakdown of election prediction. Very unscientific methodology - asked people in each station to give their predictions and mixed that with poll averages, but here are the figures for what it's worth:

Fine Gael: 63
Fianna Fáil: 43
Labour: 40
Sinn Féin: 6
Greens: 2
Others: 12

What nails my scepticism is the call that Ferris will lose his seat, which no other poll said before now:

Kerry North:
1. Deenihan (FG)
2. Spring (Labour)
3. McEllistrim (FF)

Kerry South:
1. Sheahan (FG)
2. Healy-Rae (Ind.)
3. O'Donoghue (FF)

[Schumi]

Are all the constituency predictions online anywhere? Curious to see some of them.

[culloty82]

Are all the constituency predictions online anywhere? Curious to see some of them.

Bizarrely, Newstalk are sending the breakdowns to individuals on request, you'd think it would be easier for them to stick up a link, I'll see what I can do.

It's Excel, so can't post it, but log on to Newstalk, they'll give you the file.

https://webmailbox302.eircom.net/service/home/~/ELEXPREDICTSFINAL2%20(2).xlsx?auth=co&loc=en_GB&id=57241&part=2

[BonnieShels]

RedC for PaddyPower: FG 35 Lab 21 SF 14 FF 14 Grn 4 Oth 12
Can we put to bed the notion of Taoiseach Gilmore?

[Lim till i die]

Labour are now caught between the Fine Gael rock on their right and the Sinn Fein/ULA hard place on their left.

Very hard to see where they go from here, the longer the election campaign goes on the more they could be squeezed.

Another issue which could lead to some pause for thought for them is the dismal showing of Shrieking Joan who despite being shoved to the forefront somewhat had 9% support for next finance minister, just one point ahead of Rabbite and Gilmore and far behind both Bruton and Noonan.

It's time they had a think and came out with some concrete policies, I pay fairly close attention and the only thing I'm certain of is they ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein and even then I didn't get a particularly good reason (the two actual reasons, a dread of alienating the middle class and Eamons (among others) Stickyness obviously weren't going to be mentioned but at least come up with something convincing!)

If these trends keep up not only can you forget about Gilmore for Taoiseach but you can forget about a rotating Finance ministry and you can forget about anything more than a few token cabinet posts.

Could we be in Fianna Fail propping up a minority Fine Gael government for as long as they see fit (for the good of the country of course) territory or is that just mad?? :)

[dahamsta]

Labour's announcement that they'd rewrite the constitution and abolish the senate is actually pushing me away from them. I couldn't possibly support such utter nonsense.

[BonnieShels]

I still think that it will be FG Labour. FF are far too toxic, especially with todays revelations about Clowen and Fitzy, to even contemplate. We're getting closer and closer to an FG overall majority. Though I think they'll drop short in the end.
I said Labour would go like this a year ago and be found out. Look, they have.

[Macy]

Labour's announcement that they'd rewrite the constitution and abolish the senate is actually pushing me away from them. I couldn't possibly support such utter nonsense.
Whatever about hoping aboard the aboilish the senate bandwagon, the constitution rewrite was part of Gilmores conference speech either at the last conference or the one before. That isn't a new policy or idea, and infact was a bit out of the blue at the time as it was long before the FF apologists started to hide behind the "systems failure" excuse.

I'm not sure where I stand on the senate - probably reform over abolition tbh. However, abolition would inevitable mean a constitution rewrite, which makes FF's apparent rush job for a single amendment at general election even more laughable.


We're getting closer and closer to an FG overall majority. Though I think they'll drop short in the end.
I said Labour would go like this a year ago and be found out. Look, they have.
Once Labour are the main oppisition, I'm not sure that'd be the worst for Labour long term. FG/SF with Gilmore leader of the opposition and FF irrelevant...

[dahamsta]

There's no doubt that the senate needs reform but abolishing it is simply childish. More importantly, as I'm sure I've said here before, it's dangerous. Our current situation shouldn't leave a shadow of a doubt that the house doesn't work. Of course Gilmore won't look at the house, since that's his bread and butter.

[tetsujin1979]

didn't know where else to post this, Fine Gael's website has been hacked: http://finegael2011.com/

If it's resolved by the time you read this, here's what they replaced it with: http://twitpic.com/3okh03

[mypost]

Labour are now caught between the Fine Gael rock on their right and the Sinn Fein/ULA hard place on their left.

Very hard to see where they go from here, the longer the election campaign goes on the more they could be squeezed.

Another issue which could lead to some pause for thought for them is the dismal showing of Shrieking Joan who despite being shoved to the forefront somewhat had 9% support for next finance minister, just one point ahead of Rabbite and Gilmore and far behind both Bruton and Noonan.

It's time they had a think and came out with some concrete policies, I pay fairly close attention and the only thing I'm certain of is they ruled out coalition with Sinn Fein and even then I didn't get a particularly good reason (the two actual reasons, a dread of alienating the middle class and Eamons (among others) Stickyness obviously weren't going to be mentioned but at least come up with something convincing!)

If these trends keep up not only can you forget about Gilmore for Taoiseach but you can forget about a rotating Finance ministry and you can forget about anything more than a few token cabinet posts.

It'll comfortably be FG-Lab, with FF and SF in opposition. That'll be the 4 Parties in.

Now we're getting nearer D-Day, people are scrutinising the Soundbite King's policies, and therefore his party is slipping in the polls. He'll still be in government, but FG can call his bluff when the voting stops and the horse-trading starts.

As for the Senate, I think abolition is a bit steep, but it has to be reviewed. Failed politicians claiming huge salaries sitting two days a week is a huge expense to the State in the current climate. Bills are rarely amended, let alone rejected. I would favour suspension for the foreseeable future rather than abolition.

[Dodge]

http://www.politics.ie/fianna-fail/147703-conor-lenihans-pa-says-cowen-will-ousted-taoiseach-end-week.html

Conor Lenihan's political advisor (http://ie.linkedin.com/pub/joe-neville/14/B50/62) reckons Cowen's gone by end of week

[BonnieShels]

Mammy O'ROURKE on Twitter this morning:


@maryorourketd
Hey Brian, Will you please name the date. We are tired waiting.

1 hour ago via web

This comes after rumours yesterday from a big announcement that Lendahand is stepping down, which he firmly denied.

I imagine the News at One will be interesting.