Election 2011 - General

[BonnieShels]

Out out!

[Macy]

Lowry was absolutely pathetic - there was supposedly a process for FG and Labour budgetary involvement, and the FF/Green Government refused to open the books or allow genuine input.

The Greens are also absolutely pathetic and so dumb they clearly didn't see what they'd spark. If they wanted the budget and plan passed they should've kept their mouth shut. The time for leaving government "in the national interest" was firstly at the bank bailout, and more recently as soon as we'd left the bond markets.

I think if the budget is passed, Labour and FG will stand by it, as they'll be able to blame FF/Greens whilst having 6 billion out of the way.

Worst possible outcome is if FF and the Greens to fail to get the budget or finance bill through, although I wouldn't be surprised if FG abstain in that well worn cliche.

At this stage I'd prefer FF have to bring forward this budget - they'd surely struggle for double figures if they do. This is our chance to rid the state of these traitors - proper "National Interest".

[dahamsta]

I see the IMF are already throwing shapes, essentially telling us that we need to leave Fianna Fail alone and get the budget passed or they'll take their football and go home.

[BonnieShels]

So if we have FG in governement they'll p1ss off?
Already FG are sorting it out! :)

[Macy]

I see the IMF are already throwing shapes, essentially telling us that we need to leave Fianna Fail alone and get the budget passed or they'll take their football and go home.
Perfect excuse for FG to abstain.

[OneRedArmy]

I see the IMF are already throwing shapes, essentially telling us that we need to leave Fianna Fail alone and get the budget passed or they'll take their football and go home.The IMF want their budget approved by whichever Government can get it through quickest.

The EU money will be conditional on said austerity budget being passed.

Thems the breaks. I'd say the IMF don't give two hoots what happen FF beyond the budget, but they see them staying in place as the best way to get the budget saving in place quickly.

They are acting in their interest, which is unsurprising.

Unless the Opposition can come up with a clever plan quickly, if they got into power right away I don't think they'll do anything other than essentially ratify the Government's budget. I don't think either FG or Labour have the balls to face down the IMF and default and even if they want to take the bailout, they haven't really had the time to tinker with the numbers.

[Kingdom]

Just to be sure, to be sure, is it not the EU Solidarity Fund that's providing financial aid rather than the IMF?

[OneRedArmy]

The new budget will be different, and is the one that is important.

3 Budgets and two elections in the next 12 months. Going to be a busy political year.How will it differ?

[OneRedArmy]

Just to be sure, to be sure, is it not the EU Solidarity Fund that's providing financial aid rather than the IMF?IMF advice, no money (as yet).

[John83]

Well lads, missed the news, anything happen in the free state today?

Seriously though, looking in from a semi outside point of view, things look fairly orderly. Yeah, there is much gnashing of teeth, but one would expect that. But compared to Greece everything looks like it is going well.
Compared with Greece? There'd have to be reports of cannibalism for things to look worse than...

Hang on, I just read something about FF turning on Cowen. "The knives are out." It couldn't be, could it?

[John83]

Actually, could I ask a quick question: I keep hearing the IMF and the EU named as the ones bailing us out. Are they both giving us money? The EU acting as a guarantor on an IMF loan?

[BonnieShels]

Compared with Greece? There'd have to be reports of cannibalism for things to look worse than...

Hang on, I just read something about FF turning on Cowen. "The knives are out." It couldn't be, could it?

Where did you read those reports? :)

[BonnieShels]

More movement on this on Politics.ie and Newstalk...

apparently Chris Andrews and Noel O'Flynn have been hinting at FG to table a motion of no-confidence in the Taoiseach tomorrow.
I smell a trap.

[backstothewall]

Compared with Greece? There'd have to be reports of cannibalism for things to look worse than...

Hang on, I just read something about FF turning on Cowen. "The knives are out." It couldn't be, could it?

Tongue was firmly in cheek John.

Realisticaly it doesn't really matter what happens now with the opposition. Its far too late in the year to organise a general election before christmas. It January whether the budget is passed or not. The stability of keeping the coalition in place until January will allow the neccesary arrangements to be made.

Best hope January 2011 has better weather than January 2010 or it'll be February before you all get to the polls

[mypost]

How will it differ?

The budget as it stands, is about as useful as East German border guards after the Berlin Wall fell. It's a total irrelevance, and purely for optics.

A new budget will have to be drawn up by the next government, only then they will have the mandate to do so by the electorate and more importantly the stability needed in which to implement it, so it's best that the provisional budget is scrapped, and let the new government be elected and implement it instead.

The rescue package is not required to be activated until next summer at the earliest. The country has enough funds until then, so passing the budget under this government is purely window-dressing, rather than competent authority.

[dahamsta]

Actually, could I ask a quick question: I keep hearing the IMF and the EU named as the ones bailing us out. Are they both giving us money? The EU acting as a guarantor on an IMF loan?

Both. The Brits have offered us a loan too.

[BonnieShels]

They could be just buying bits back to recomplete the jigsaw

[backstothewall]

The budget as it stands, is about as useful as East German border guards after the Berlin Wall fell. It's a total irrelevance, and purely for optics.

A new budget will have to be drawn up by the next government, only then they will have the mandate to do so by the electorate and more importantly the stability needed in which to implement it, so it's best that the provisional budget is scrapped, and let the new government be elected and implement it instead.

The rescue package is not required to be activated until next summer at the earliest. The country has enough funds until then, so passing the budget under this government is purely window-dressing, rather than competent authority.

Can't agree. The next government will almost certainly be bound by this budget by the EU/IMF. Although the state probably won't need to draw on the funds, the deal will be done by christmas and any changes to that deal will be done to the satisfaction of the EU/IMF, not the state. In short a FG finance minister trying to negotiate after the election will have even less room for manouvre than Brian Lenihan had last week.



They could be just buying bits back to recomplete the jigsaw

They could at least put Donegal back into the north. It would make the place look a lot neater. According the lthe last opinion poll 40% of them are Shinners so they would fit right in

[BonnieShels]

It never left the north. It's where it always was. :P
I'd swap Cavan for Fermanagh if at all possible.

[mypost]

Can't agree. The next government will almost certainly be bound by this budget by the EU/IMF. Although the state probably won't need to draw on the funds, the deal will be done by christmas and any changes to that deal will be done to the satisfaction of the EU/IMF, not the state. In short a FG finance minister trying to negotiate after the election will have even less room for manouvre than Brian Lenihan had last week.

Which is why we need an election now, in order for a new government to have the authority to implement it. Atm we effectively have no government, as the government is ending soon.

The UK have had 2 budgets this year, because of a change of government. They weren't influenced by the IMF, but they were influenced by Brussels.

Next year, we'll have an election for parliament, an election for the bill-signer, a referendum to abolish the Seanad, and possibly an election for Dublin Lord Mayor. And at least 2 budgets to implement. We'll be doing laps of the polling booths.

[BonnieShels]

Which is why we need an election now, in order for a new government to have the authority to implement it. Atm we effectively have no government, as the government is ending soon.

The UK have had 2 budgets this year, because of a change of government. They weren't influenced by the IMF, but they were influenced by Brussels.

Next year, we'll have an election for parliament, an election for the bill-signer, a referendum to abolish the Seanad, and possibly an election for Dublin Lord Mayor. And at least 2 budgets to implement. We'll be doing laps of the polling booths.

We had two budgets for 2009 don't forget.

We will not have a Dublin mayoral vote next year. That idea will thankfully die with the yellows.The Seanad referendum will not come in 2011 more than likely 2012 as well. the next administration will have far too much to deal with.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Is Btw still backing FF I wonder ?? :eek:

Surely they've blown it for a generation? Forget them & FG. And regrettably the Greens (in Europe they seem to have pragmatic policies, though not Ireland or their Brit counterparts, in the main.)

At this point, would want a Labour/SF/Indpts. coalition, the latter preferably being of a more left persuasion. Potentially up to six must have a chance, though others more knowledgeable will know more exact details.

If I could vote for her, would certainly back my pals sister, who got deselected as an Indpt.(formerly of a 'mainstream' party, Thankfully, not the gruesome twosome.) TD in the last election which was more of a FF/FG squeeze.

[BonnieShels]

The next government will be FG major and Labour minor. FF will be a pointless rump party. Near destructed to nothing. SF will gain substantially and I think that this will be the last government where FG and Labour are in coalition and we can see a normalisation of Left Right politics finally in this state. Or the gobshoites will continue to vote for FF.

[geysir]

Maybe my Babel Fish has finally tuned into Cowen speak or he has started to use plain English, but I had the strange experience of understanding what the man was saying as he was speaking on Monday, when he faced the press with the announcement of inevitable elections in January.

[OneRedArmy]

Both. The Brits have offered us a loan too.
I haven't seen any mention that a cent of IMF money is involved yet?

[Lionel Ritchie]

Is Btw still backing FF I wonder ?? :eek:

Surely they've blown it for a generation?


FF will be a pointless rump party. Near destructed to nothing. I wouldn't go writing their obituary just yet. Once the next administration has taken over and quickly becomes unpopular they'll start to creep back -especially when they change leader - a move that'll be about as seismic a shift for them as Malibu Stacey getting a cheap plastic hat. Sadly I could see them rehabilitated, in the minds of enough voters, to the point of fit for office in a tragically short time. As it stands, with all that has happened and all that we know of who was at the wheel, 17% of voters admit that they'd vote for them again. I reckon for every two confessed FF voters there's at least another one who'll do the needful when called upon. As has been said -it aint just an election this country needs -it's an electorate.


Maybe my Babel Fish has finally tuned into Cowen speak or he has started to use plain English, but I had the strange experience of understanding what the man was saying as he was speaking on Monday, when he faced the press with the announcement of inevitable elections in January. Mark Twain said something like "Nothing hones the mind like the prospect of an imminent linching".

[dahamsta]

I don't think FF'll die either, although it'll be fascinating to watch the deserters.

[Mr A]

Sinn Fein to table motion of no confidence: http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/19573

This could end the Cowen era.. or he could struggle through one more time. We'll see now what the FF 'rebels' are really made of.

[Real ale Madrid]

Sinn Fein to table motion of no confidence: http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/19573

This could end the Cowen era.. or he could struggle through one more time. We'll see now what the FF 'rebels' are really made of.

Dont they need 7 seats ?

[culloty82]

Dont they need 7 seats ?

It could end up like the John O'Donoghue vote, where SF didn't have the numbers, but forced Labour to respond with their motion.

[Mr A]

Apparently so, wasn't aware of that initially.

Kinda just bluster from them so.

[Real ale Madrid]

Apparently so, wasn't aware of that initially.

Kinda just bluster from them so.

Don't know about that, Sinn Fein seem to be doing the right things lately - winning court cases for by-elections, the O'Donoghue vote as mentioned above and now this?

We will certainly see now who is looking towards the national interest, if Lab / FG / Healy Rae and any other deserting rats really think a GE is required - surely this is thier chance to make it happen ?

[BonnieShels]

Geysir, you're right. I was agog with euphoria last night and couldn't contain myself. The next few days will decide the fate of the party. Although we all know that there's always some who'll vote FF and not admit it, I.think that the colloquial nature of the party could be its downfall. Think about it, how many if the current flock of ffers are.going to want to stand for election next time round? If the party is beset my an influx of unknowns we could see decimation. Also, the opposition will either have to face an election before or after the budget. In either event they will have an enormous majority ensuring they'll be in power for at least 5 years. If they bring us back from the brink and I have confidence that they will then I can easily see FF being exasperated come 2016. Unless they hitch their ride to the rising bandwagon.

[backstothewall]

Is Btw still backing FF I wonder ?? :eek:

Then, as now, i only backed them in the north. In the south I'd give my No. 1 to whoever had the best chance of getting elected between SF and Labour

[BonnieShels]

So a glory hunter eh?
You'll be biting for Labour and they'll be in coalition with your beloved FG.
Delicious.

[Macy]

We had two budgets for 2009 don't forget.
Was it not 3 in/ for 2009? Hard to keep up with Lenihan tbh...

For all the talk of a FG/ Labour or Labour/ FG coalition (and by god have RTE been attacking this "incoming Government" all day, particularly Pat Kenny), surely something approaching canadian tory style meltdown for FF opens up other possibilities?

[BonnieShels]

Surely not. I'm getting miffed at the easy ride that FF get on rte of late. Prime example with that vacuous bint o'callaghan tonight with varadkar and battman. Hassles Varadkar for not guaranteeing that FG will vote for the budget. Varadkar handled her well. Then she asked Battman What do FF feel about being the worst/most unpopular government ever... Battman started talking about exports. Nothing said by the cow.
Cooper was at it today and in fairness John Drennan and Fionnan Sheehan sorted him out.
The Irish media is complicit in the ****storm we're in.

[BonnieShels]

Apparently we are now in hock for €200billion. Get your coats lads.

[culloty82]

Was it not 3 in/ for 2009? Hard to keep up with Lenihan tbh...

For all the talk of a FG/ Labour or Labour/ FG coalition (and by god have RTE been attacking this "incoming Government" all day, particularly Pat Kenny), surely something approaching canadian tory style meltdown for FF opens up other possibilities?

It would be hard for such a result under PR, they'd probably have to fall under 10%, which isn't likely to happen, but FF could end up like Italy's Christian Democrats (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democracy_%28Italy,_historical%29). A popular centrist party, corruption, disillusionment with the entire political system and an economic crisis - so not so different from here then. They still exist, but nowadays they only get 5-10% of the vote.

[Macy]

It would be hard for such a result under PR, they'd probably have to fall under 10%, which isn't likely to happen, but FF could end up like Italy's Christian Democrats (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democracy_%28Italy,_historical%29). A popular centrist party, corruption, disillusionment with the entire political system and an economic crisis - so not so different from here then. They still exist, but nowadays they only get 5-10% of the vote.
I know there's a "shy FFer" effect in the polls, but they were down to 17% in the last red c poll, which was taken Monday to Wednesday last week, before confirmation of the IMF/ Lies and all the crap since. Not sure of the red c methodology, but I think it might tend to over estimate FF support too. I doubt they'll go to 10%, but it's not so far beyond the bonds of possibility that we should be expecting a joint FG/Labour programme before an election imo.


Surely not. I'm getting miffed at the easy ride that FF get on rte of late. Prime example with that vacuous bint o'callaghan tonight with varadkar and battman. Hassles Varadkar for not guaranteeing that FG will vote for the budget. Varadkar handled her well. Then she asked Battman What do FF feel about being the worst/most unpopular government ever... Battman started talking about exports. Nothing said by the cow.

Only of late? I had thought the worm had turned earlier in the week, but RTE were well and truely back in Pravda mode yesterday, that's for sure. Apart from Brawn, the last few weeks I've been relying on BBC and Channel 4 to find out what's happening in Ireland.

[Billsthoughts]

Thing that is bugging me more and more is this line being pedalled by the government about the crisis being "unprecedented". Even leaving aside the fact they created it - it is irrelavent if it is unprecedented or not. Its the governments job to show leadership regardless of the circumstance. Shows their attitude to government. Happy to take the perks and the prestige but cant deal with the actual responsibility.

The other thing is this line being pedalled that we gave up our sovereignty when we signed Rome/Maastricht etc.....Like that makes turning the country into a basketcase economy alright? Taxes are being used to pay for PR people to come up with this weak rubbish!

[dahamsta]

I love that all talk about the government has disappeared overnight, it's IMF this and ECB that, but not a peep about Biffo and his so-called opposers.

[bennocelt]

Only of late? I had thought the worm had turned earlier in the week, but RTE were well and truely back in Pravda mode yesterday, that's for sure. Apart from Brawn, the last few weeks I've been relying on BBC and Channel 4 to find out what's happening in Ireland.

Likewise. Rte are a joke and full of FFers. After Cowen's press conference they went straight to Davin Power when finished who said it was a good speech!!!! WTF - it was rubbish, the usual monotone Cowen waffling and as Vincent B would say -"Robotic"

[BonnieShels]

Have you read the Plan?
www.budget.gov.ie
Page 13, 14 and 80 are hilarious.

[BonnieShels]

God... remember this odious cnut?

And people still vote for this party.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8T0Q03oJSc&feature=related


Delicious... VB is just tearing through Pat Carey now. Ah this is going to be a good hour... Oh look who's beside Pat Carey only Pat Rabbitte.

[Macy]

Rte are a joke and full of FFers.
Sean O'Rourke spinning himself into knots trying discredit Gilmore on News at One today - insisted that he was contradicting what he'd said on The Late Late, insisted on playing the clip, and it was virtually word for word the same answer, only difference (imo) was that Turbidy kept interrupting Gilmore at the start of the reply so "No" became a statement rather than a start of a sentence. EDIT - maybe I'm more bias than I thought, as I went to politics.ie after posting this and apparently Sean O'Rourke "tore Gilmore a new one"!

[dahamsta]

politics.ie is a weird site, and unusable because of all the crap they wrap around the content. Ditto askaboutmoney, useful for particular things but there's some loony-toons right-wing nutjobs on there too.

Some eejit on there today was suggesting that we put the likes of Denis O'Brien and Michael O'Leary in charge, which was the dumbest idea I've heard until George Hook suggested them AND Tony O'Reilly on the radio earlier. Tony O'Reilly! I hate to break my own rules, but jesus f*cking christ like, can you imagine what they'd do to the country?

[BonnieShels]

Sean O'Rourke spinning himself into knots trying discredit Gilmore on News at One today - insisted that he was contradicting what he'd said on The Late Late, insisted on playing the clip, and it was virtually word for word the same answer, only difference (imo) was that Turbidy kept interrupting Gilmore at the start of the reply so "No" became a statement rather than a start of a sentence. EDIT - maybe I'm more bias than I thought, as I went to politics.ie after posting this and apparently Sean O'Rourke "tore Gilmore a new one"!

Funny you should say that. I was thinking that about O'Rourke today however I do also think that Gilmore was brutal and yet again showed what a sham, he is.
Trying to follow anything on P.ie is insane. the amount of trolling is very annoying too.

Oh and dahamsta, no I don't even want to consider that scenario.

[BonnieShels]

Tentative results from Donegal SW:

Doherty 33% O'Domhnaill 21% McBrearty19% O'Neill 18% Pringle 8%

[Mr A]

On those numbers it's Doherty's seat with McBrearty to come in second I'd say.