Election 2011 - General

[Mr A]

It's not so much the Donegal SW one, but if they hold the others the government will almost certainly fall, and the time-line for that now seems to be for the spring.

Even as it is they are walking a very fine line and I think even one further loss could see the end of it.

It seems to make little sense for the government to try to stagger on any further.. the writing is firmly on the wall.

[Macy]

The Greens say that the byelection should take place immediately. Game over for the government.
Boyle specifically said on the News at One that the Greens want only the Donegal one held immediately, with the other 2 to follow in the spring with no committment on the second Donegal one. So they're only half in favour of democracy.

[Real ale Madrid]

It seems to make little sense for the government to try to stagger on any further.. the writing is firmly on the wall.

On the contrary - if the greens can hang on for another year then it suits them better - better to get as many more paycheques as they can before they become unemployed after the next election. Same can probably be said of half of FF sitting TD's also. They will hang on now for all they are worth.

[mypost]

It seems to make little sense for the government to try to stagger on any further.. the writing is firmly on the wall.

No, Scrooge's Budget is still on the table.

Brussels, Frankfurt, and the Markets want to see what he'll do before next month. Even if the government falls and nothing actually gets done.

[dahamsta]

Still on Bertie - sorry, I didn't realise this had gone on to another page - given the prices he's charging for speaking, a fiver says he hasn't done a tap in his contituency either. He should leave his seat, his consituency and preferably the country. Better still reopen Spike for him and him alone. Put a CCTV camera on him so we can all enjoy it. Oooh, and install stocks. I'd love to give him just one funt up the hole, and I'm sure there's plenty others like me. We could set a Guinness record for the longest queue in the world...

[culloty82]

Radio Kerry just talked to Seán Doherty, a DJ with Highland Radio, who confirmed the by-election will be held on the 25th. He also said that even though Doherty is the firm favourite, a FF Senator called Briain O'Domhnaill could yet win. Still, no need to worry while Healy-Rae sorts out vital matters like the Tralee by-pass and Kenmare Hospital!

[Macy]

Still, no need to worry while Healy-Rae sorts out vital matters like the Tralee by-pass and Kenmare Hospital!
Not forgetting Lowry and his demands, whenever they come....

[OneRedArmy]

Not forgetting Lowry and his demands, whenever they come....are there any mobile phones licences left to give away?

[Dodge]

Seriously though, on the day the government are to announce they need to cut €6billion from the budget, they're going to appeal the decision of the courts to force athe by-election to the Supreme Courts...

And not one of them sees the irony there?

[dahamsta]

Probably not Dodge. They're oblivious.

[OneRedArmy]

Seriously though, on the day the government are to announce they need to cut €6billion from the budget, they're going to appeal the decision of the courts to force athe by-election to the Supreme Courts...

And not one of them sees the irony there?Have they not moved the writ and set the date for Nov 25th?

More interestingly, they interviewed a few local constituents on the radio this morning who basically said said that as long as the Cabinet stay well away from the campaign FF have a 50/50 chance of retaining the seat as its absolute FF heartland. Gotta love parish pump politics!

[Dodge]

Aye

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/1104/donegal.html

To even think about it though....

[Macy]

are there any mobile phones licences left to give away?
I would suspect he's more interested in Casino Licences these days.

But Dodge, it's in the National Interest to deny the people their democratic rights! ZanuFF is becoming more and more apt...

[Lim till i die]

The reason for appealing the decision to the Supreme Court is an utterly transparent scam to stop people in Waterford and Dublin South taking similar action to the Shinner in Donegal.

[culloty82]

Fine Gael are still taking cases (http://www.thejournal.ie/fg-to-lodge-court-appeal-over-waterford-by-election-2010-11/) over both anyway.

[mypost]

Fine Gael are still taking cases (http://www.thejournal.ie/fg-to-lodge-court-appeal-over-waterford-by-election-2010-11/) over both anyway.

FG were monumentally stupid in waiting as long as they have to take legal action, and are only doing so following the decision of the Donegal SW case. That Dublin South vacancy has been so for 9 months, and was vacant before Lee was elected for a similiar amount of time.

[Macy]

FG were monumentally stupid in waiting as long as they have to take legal action, and are only doing so following the decision of the Donegal SW case. That Dublin South vacancy has been so for 9 months, and was vacant before Lee was elected for a similiar amount of time.
I'm not so sure, there's no guarantee that the same result would've, or even will, result from the other two.

Lim till i die is right though - they won't even say what exactly they are appealing, and won't ask for it to be heard quickly, it's a total delaying tactic. The Republican Party?

[Eminence Grise]

Following today’s news, I will happily give my vote to whichever party gives me the best cheeseboard for Christmas! A good tawny port is optional, but would secure a favourable vote in the next referendum as well. (I don’t want to appear too cheap, after all...)

The front runners so far:

Fianna Fáil – cottage cheese (thick, lumpy and tasteless. Curdles and turns sour quickly but is inexplicably kept around for very long periods)

Greens – chèvre (handmade with the organic, unpasteurised milk from pampered goats who have given their permission to be milked by Dieter und his vife Maureen in the wilds of Connemara)

Fine Gael – Crozier Blue (combines the saltiness of good old-fashioned blue-shirtism, with a pious whack of right wing conservatism)

Labour - Edam (thick Red outer layer, but pale and utterly bland underneath. Made with milk from cows reared on very expensive land)

Sinn Fein – Wicklow Blue Brie (whiter than white surface belies a centre with a pungent whiff of corruption. Allegedly. Matured in underground bunkers all over the country. Allegedly)

Independents and Non-party – Easi Singles (individually wrapped, will go with anything. No flavour, but a whiff of opportunism pervades. The cheese of choice in Kerry, Tipperary...)

[Mr A]

An unnamed minister reckons the budget will be defeated: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/minister-says-budget-will-be-defeated-480607.html

[mypost]

They will vote for the budget. All of the government will.

But the possibility that they might not will keep the journos happy for a few weeks.

[Aberdonian Stu]

Well if it were to lose it would make for a bit of a messed up timing situation for an election. Assuming, and it's a big assumption, a budget defeat caused an election you're looking at the election being called December 10th or so (Budget on the 7th) which in a 3 to 5 week campaign cycle makes January 14th pretty much the latest it could be held. That would be very messy timing.

[mypost]

Well if it were to lose it would make for a bit of a messed up timing situation for an election. Assuming, and it's a big assumption, a budget defeat caused an election you're looking at the election being called December 10th or so (Budget on the 7th) which in a 3 to 5 week campaign cycle makes January 14th pretty much the latest it could be held. That would be very messy timing.

Even more messed up considering the 5-week Christmas break. Can't see it happening.

Also, can someone explain what happens in 2012 regarding a General Election if there is one next year as well? Certainly in recent history, there has always been an election in the years that end in 2 and 7, even though the government hadn't always served it's full 5-year term at the time.

[dahamsta]

It'll just push out. Elections aren't like the WC and Olympics.

[BonnieShels]

The feeling of exasperation that pervades in this country is unbelievable. How it can be perceived that The People don't have the appetite for an election I don't know. Tbh if the budget passes there should be a mass resignation of all opposition TD's. That seemingly is the only way to be rid of this ff disease that pervades this nation. I couldn't handle the idea of waiting til the spring.
Another thing though that I don't understand is how anyone without any sense of irony would say that they would vote for ff if they stood in the north of the country. How John Bruton's lapdog showing with the Prince of Wales over 15 years ago is more heinous than the destruction of this State's economy and society by FF is beyond me. Also let's not forget the high esteem some of FF's former Taoisigh namely Lynch, are held in the north. Especially in South Armagh.

[mypost]

The feeling of exasperation that pervades in this country is unbelievable. How it can be perceived that The People don't have the appetite for an election I don't know. Tbh if the budget passes there should be a mass resignation of all opposition TD's. That seemingly is the only way to be rid of this ff disease that pervades this nation.

Don't understand how that could work. The budget votes will pass 82 to 80, even Bertie will be wheeled out to do his bit for his party and walk up the Yes Aisle.

I see the government's argument that they don't want a bye-election, yet alone a general one. If there is an early election, the Markets won't take it well and may increase the interest rate in the 6-week period between the call of the election and the new Taoiseach (Kenny) is elected. Brussels are happy to deal with FF as it gives them stability, I don't know how they'll take to Kenny. Frankfurt may also be concerned that FF budget policies will be useless until the new government is formed, drafts, and implements another budget, which is likely to be another 6 weeks and very different, so you're looking at possibly 3 months of economic time-wasting in the EU's eyes, time we can't afford.

Of course, for Mary and Miley at home, it's all a load of nonsense. They just want FF gone, whatever it takes.

[culloty82]

First Donegal opinion poll published in today's Sindo:

FF 35%
SF 25%
=FG 20%
=Lab 20%

Mr A no doubt will know how accurate or otherwise this is.

[Mr A]

Amazing in a couple of ways.

Massive numbers for FF and Lab. Awful, awful, awful for FG. SF you would expect in the circumstances.

Mary Coughlan must be swinging it, probably has credit for every small thing opened up there this last few years.

[OneRedArmy]

Donegal proving Donegal won't be told to do anything by those city slickers down in Dublin. It is absolute FF heartland and whilst people will say its more about the candidate, I don't believe it. It will take the country to sink before that part of the country deserts FF.

I agree the FG share is the big shocker. By comparison, in 2007 Labour had 2.6% first prefs with FG 23%!!! (SF 21%).

[Macy]

Massive caveat to that poll is that it's in the Sindo (FF's equivalent of An Phoblacht)

Nothing would surprise me with Donegal - they must have had a lobotomy when it comes to politics. Or maybe I'm mistaken and FF have provided loads of jobs and loads of investment since 97, and I'm wrong that it has been behind in terms of employment, investment etc etc. Still I'm sure their dad voted FF, and their dad before them...

[Mr A]

The transfers in this contest are going to be absolutely fascinating. Much could depend on whether Lab or FG were eliminated first. Lab votes would probably break to FG and SF, while I'd say FG would go more towards Lab with very few for SF. But can SF actually start picking up transfers? In the past that has been a big problem for them. I think this time might be different.

And what about transfers to FF? I could see them getting a decent 1st preference vote and then having the lead eaten away as the opposition parties all transfer to each other. This byelection will tell us a lot about what way the wind is blowing, even if Donegal tends to be very slow to change.

And what makes that Labour number even more astonishing is that McBrearty is... not sure how to put this but let's just say that anyone I've spoken to who knows him has a very poor opinion of him. Not sure how the hell he ended up in Labour to be honest. But then sometimes being known is the most important thing.

[Dodge]

That really is an astonishing poll for Labour. If that rise was replicated around the country at a general election they'd be biggest party

Long way to go obviously

[Macy]

But then sometimes being known is the most important thing.
I would think that's exactly why he ended up with Labour. During the Spring tide having labour on the ticket was enough, but if you can combine it with name recognition outside of traditional areas then there's more chance is the theory I'd imagine.

I still treat with Sindo polls with something less than a pinch of salt. FF hadn't even selected a candidate until last night FFS.

[BonnieShels]

Don't understand how that could work. The budget votes will pass 82 to 80, even Bertie will be wheeled out to do his bit for his party and walk up the Yes Aisle.

I see the government's argument that they don't want a bye-election, yet alone a general one. If there is an early election, the Markets won't take it well and may increase the interest rate in the 6-week period between the call of the election and the new Taoiseach (Kenny) is elected. Brussels are happy to deal with FF as it gives them stability, I don't know how they'll take to Kenny. Frankfurt may also be concerned that FF budget policies will be useless until the new government is formed, drafts, and implements another budget, which is likely to be another 6 weeks and very different, so you're looking at possibly 3 months of economic time-wasting in the EU's eyes, time we can't afford.

Of course, for Mary and Miley at home, it's all a load of nonsense. They just want FF gone, whatever it takes.

I don't think you got what I was saying. IF the budget passes (and we both know it more than likely will) then the government will have supply and therefore the status quo will continue. Now, if that was to happen and subject to the High Court rulings which we'll know more about before the budget the sense in waiting til spring for the bye-elections is just a ghastly prospect and the Oppostition parties could pratically force a general election by resigning en masse. Never gonna happen but one can dream.
Now Ó Cuív has been put in charge of Donegal SW election so as you can see the party before country mantra for FF still rings true.

You say 3 months of economic time wasting? As opposed to the 2 years of maddening stupidity and boll0cksology. A stable new Government would be more advantageous to us rather than this rag tag of parish pumpers.
Either way the ECB at some point in the next year is gonna tell us to get down on 2 knees and open wide.

[BonnieShels]

I can't see it happening tbh now. They have started to look a little shaky. A lack of a true vision is starting to hurt and Gilmore is not doing so hot in his last few interviews.
The inevitability though of the next Government's make up of FG major and Lab minor is dangerous because it may allow FF to garner a few more seats than they might have done due to peoples unwillingness to bother to go to the polls.

[mypost]

I don't think you got what I was saying. IF the budget passes (and we both know it more than likely will) then the government will have supply and therefore the status quo will continue.

You say 3 months of economic time wasting? As opposed to the 2 years of maddening stupidity and boll0cksology. A stable new Government would be more advantageous to us rather than this rag tag of parish pumpers.
Either way the ECB at some point in the next year is gonna tell us to get down on 2 knees and open wide.

The budget is already decided, as Rehn was in town today to inspect it. It's not the last minute job as it used to be.

Brussels doesn't really care what's gone on here in the past two years. They just want to know if we can pay our bills now. They and the Markets don't have the time or the patience to wait 3 months while we call an election, hold a campaign, go to the polls, horse-trade, form a coalition, elect a Taoiseach, appoint a cabinet, and produce a new budget in the normal way. It's what we want alright, but it's a lot of wasted time in their eyes, and they rule us politically and economically.

[OneRedArmy]

They just want to know if we can pay our bills now. Not true.

There are no "bills" to be paid until Q2 next year, but yet the bond spreads continued to climb. A change of Government will do no harm at this stage, I'm not sure what benefit it will have in the short-term, but it certainly will do no harm.

[BonnieShels]

Only just got back online and saw that Rehn wants concensus. Screw concensus. We went up to 8% today. Clearly no one has any faith in us or what's been done. Election will be all that can save us.

[total hoofball]

Only just got back online and saw that Rehn wants concensus. Screw concensus. We went up to 8% today. Clearly no one has any faith in us or what's been done. Election will be all that can save us.

The more Rehn opens his gob the more the bond spreads go up. It's bad enough when the markets don't trust FF but when they are calling BS on the guy who is supposedly trying to help us we know we're tanked.

[mypost]

Not true.

There are no "bills" to be paid until Q2 next year, but yet the bond spreads continued to climb.

And the more they climb, the less confident those we owe think they'll be paid.

The interest rate could be as much as 10-15% by then, an election process is more likely to increase it rather than moderate it.

[Macy]

The interest rate could be as much as 10-15% by then, an election process is more likely to increase it rather than moderate it.
Maybe, but only short term. I would think the markets are already reflecting political uncertainty with back benchers, green cabinet members and independents already saying what they want and what they won't accept.

A new stable Government with a clear majority and a 5 year mandate is the only hope of avoiding the stability fund. Everyone can see that, even Government, but FF and the Greens would rather put self interest ahead of national interest. They are traitors.

[Kingdom]

On the subject of cuts, is it acceptable to believe that all sectors of society should be beyond incurring a tax?
If wages, JSA and childrens allowance are to be cut, and tax & levies to rise, should the old age pension be cut?

I'm a civil servant and I accept that we're going to be targetted in a concerted way. I was embarrased at the defending of the Banking 30mins by the CPSU last week, and would happily see it removed. Similarily with the Privilege Day at Xmas and Easter, the actual cost to removing these is probably little enough, but if it helps to redress the imbalance that the public feels the Public Service have then thats fine.
What I can't understand is that I'm still getting the Increment that we get for every years service. I was sure that would have been suspended at this stage given the mess the country's finances are in.

I'm expecting, and happy to accept harshness in the relative short term, if it in any way enables the country to haul itself out of the mess. I think deep down a lot of CS staff would think the same, even if a lot are peeved at the all out attack on public servants for doing very little wrong as such. However I'll be bitter (and quite a few people have said the same to me) if there Old Age Pension isn't at least means tested.
Any opinions there?

[Mr A]

Stopping increments for a few years would make perfect sense.

And I think the burden should be spread as widely as possible. A small decrease in pensions (especially public service pensions which shot up during the good times but have remained untouched), small increase in the corporate tax rate, public service increments suspended (certainly for mid to upper levels), property taxes introduced to replace the likes of stamp duty, water charges introduced, pension tax relieve capped, income taxes raised slightly... spread it wide and hopefully nobody suffers too much.

[Dodge]

A small decrease in pensions (especially public service pensions which shot up during the good times but have remained untouched)

Last year the government introduced the pension levy which saw the average civil servant put an extra 6.5% into their pension (on top of PRSI).

Their pensions didn't shoot up either (directly), the pension rates have remained the same for decades now. Its just based on salary (which went up, obviously)

[Mr A]

What I mean is that retired public servants saw their pensions climb, but were unaffected by the levy. My folks depend on such a pension, and have said to me that it does not seem right that they should be ring-fenced.

[Dodge]

Right, sorry, thought you were talking about current staff.

[Macy]

What I mean is that retired public servants saw their pensions climb, but were unaffected by the levy. My folks depend on such a pension, and have said to me that it does not seem right that they should be ring-fenced.
This would be a bug bear of mine - current public servants had to give productivity and terms and conditions for the national wage agreements, and the pensioners took the increases. On the way down they appear to be protected at all costs. The link with current wages is fine - it'd be that or inflation, and several of the noughties national agreements actually gave below inflation pay increases, for all the bs that's spouted on Public Sector wages - but the link should be remain both ways.

Banking time was never something we got, and the priveledge days I'm not convinced is the issue that it's hyped up to be. I know many people who get the same days, several of them in multinational companies, but they're called something else or at christmas they're just part of a christmas shut down.

Simple thing they could would be to reduce pension relief to the standard rate. It would be a defacto cut in public sector wages, as they are forced (whether they get a benefit or not, and many do not) to pay into it, and it would hit the higher earners in the public sector more. Unlikely to happen as it would also hit the most well off as well, and Lenihan hates hitting them. But it would be hard for the public sector to defend if it was applied to everyone.

Pensioners, both contributory and non contributory should not be immune from cuts if they are hitting every other social welfare payment. Even if it is effectively a token cut.




Last year the government introduced the pension levy which saw the average civil servant put an extra 6.5% into their pension (on top of PRSI). .
Stop muddying the waters with facts such as factoring PRSI into public service pension contributions. What would Eddie Hobbs do if he couldn't ignore such payments?

[BonnieShels]

There's been so much said that I don't agree with here. I'm a public servant for starters.
Pension related deduction (aka pension levy): We will never ever see any benefit from this. This will never ever go to our pensions. It amounts to a pay-cut. Also remember we have a received a pay-cut as well. So we've been screwed across the board.
Bonus payments made to director-of-services were not subjected to a cut last year as they were perceived to have had a reasonable expectation. Just like us lower paid? W@nkers.
The biggest problem with the public service is the root and branch reform that needs to occur and I personally believe that slashing and burning where it's needed should be done. I work with far too many useless people that it's actually difficult to take in anyway seriously any cuts that there are meant to be coming down the line for us.
I keep suggesting ways to make our jobs easier and therefore efficient and which will save a lot of money over time but they constantly get shouted down because "that's not how we've always done it"!

I'm completely for slashing social welfare allowances. They are far too high and they are routinely scamming. I shop at least 2 people a week that I find are cheating the system. It sickens me.
There are families out there that have more income coming into their household than my family did when we were growing up and the difference is my mam and dad worked for everything we have; these shower never contribute to society and just take. I work with SW every day and this is all fact and not taxi driver talk. I know of one guy who's sons I grew up with who has claimed Jobseekers Allowance since 1986 continuously. Are you kidding me!!!

I maintain serious reservations in how our SW system creaks along. There's so much wrong that it can't be fixed and needs to be torn down and started again.
The biggest drain on SW is One-Parent Family Payment (though JSA is catching up from what I remember). This is such a crock of **** that how it was ever considered a good idea I'll never know.
My biggest gripe is that it continues the spiral of reliance on SW from cradle to the grave. The amount of families in my working area that have known nothing but OPFP from mother to daughter to grand-daughter is astounding.
I become very right-wing when talking about this so I shall stop...

The other thing that annoys me about our system is the value of JSA and JSB. How someone who has worked all their lives and loses their job is entitled to €196 pw on JSB and someone who has never worked a day in their lives is also entitled to the same amount on JSA I'll never understand.
I could go on... but there's never enough time to even bring in CE schemes, BTWEA and BTWA.

Rant partially over.

[Fr Damo]

Wether you are a Public servent or a private sector employee, the points you raise are valid and you shouldn't have felt the need to qualify them and declare you are Public.

+1 for me for most of what you wrote

[BonnieShels]

My declaration as a public servant had to do with the fact that the pension levy affected me and also give an insight into the fact that we are not all cossetted overpaid lazy @ssholes. I'll give you a better one, my gf's brother in law works in Killarney National Park. He is on a temporary contract with the OPW/NPWS and pays the Pension-related deduction. He does not have a pension or even an entitlement to one. Can someone figure that out for me?

[John83]

...I'll give you a better one, my gf's brother in law works in Killarney National Park. He is on a temporary contract with the OPW/NPWS and pays the Pension-related deduction. He does not have a pension or even an entitlement to one. Can someone figure that out for me?
My mother is in a similar position - she's a Special Needs Assistant at a school, but she took that up late in life and will retire before she's eligible for a pension.