Election 2011 - General

[BonnieShels]

And they all remained as Taoisigh in an interim capacity whilst we waited on the Dáil to elect a new one.
When a Taoiseach resigns its a declaration of an intent to resign on the election of a new one. You can't have a constitutional position where there is no Executive in the State.
Eg even when the election is called The cabinet will remain on until a new one us sworn in.

[pineapple stu]

Maybe I'm cynical (in fact, I know I'm cynical), but I'm not sharing the excitement. Cowan isn't the problem; he's a symptom of the problem. Getting excited about him leaving is like getting excited cos your bubo burst; you still have terminal plague. Though it'll still be good to see the back of him.

[Dodge]

Lynch resigned from both posts when he stood down, as did Haughey, Reynolds, and Ahern. They are the facts. Cowen will have to do likewise if he does the same.

Sweet suffering jesus, do you not read any posts in reply to you?

[dahamsta]

mypost infracted for trolling. Back on topic please, no more of this nonsense.

[culloty82]

Conor Lenihan the first senior FFer to publicly say the grassroots want a change of leader.

[Mr A]

Yes- the grassroots do, but he hasn't made up his mind.

The mischief making from the Lenihan camp really grinds my gears.

[Dodge]

Yep, nearly as much as the FF line of "we'll do whats best for the party"

[Mr A]

Labour to table motion of no confidence in the government: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0114/politics.html

[superfrank]

Gilmore on the news now. It sounds like he's calling everyone else's bluff about getting the election going.

I'm actually impressed with him now more than I've ever been before. At least, he's making a stand.

[Eminence Grise]

I think Gilmore has miscalculated: it might actually be the one thing that keeps Cowen in a job.


I have a feeling that all it will do is concentrate FF minds, and get them to circle the wagons. You know, the kind of “he might be a useless Taoiseach, but he’s our useless Taoiseach” siege mentality. The Greens are going to hang in as long as they can to get their legislation through, so the government have the numbers to defeat the motion.


If the government win the vote, there can be no leadership heave. Anybody leading it would look like a fool to support the government one day and shaft Cowen the next. And any FFer crossing the floor to vote with Labour would be out of the party: they would have to run as an independent (self-funded, c.€35-40k) and risk losing loyal FF votes while being punished by the rest of the electorate for being FF anyway. I don’t think the dissidents in FF are that brave.


Edit: just read on RTE (http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0114/politics.html) that John Curran is to refuse government Dáil time to debate the motion. I presume now that Labour would have to table the motion under their own speaking time... To misquote the French general who witnessed the Charge of the Light Brigade: c’est la guerre, mais ce n’est pas magnifique.

[superfrank]

Gilmore said that on the news. They'll have to wait an extra week, iirc, to get it into the Dail.

[Macy]

I think Gilmore has miscalculated: it might actually be the one thing that keeps Cowen in a job.
That'd be better than some bounce from a new leader. It's a win win. And even if one of the pretenders grows a pair in the meantime, they'll have to stand up and defend the Governments record and enforce their ties with this Government bankrupting the country.

And btw John A Costello wasn't leader of any party when he was Taoiseach. Precedent me arse.

[BonnieShels]

As was said on Nova earlier, most ffers think that not only is he an *******, he's our *******!

[Eminence Grise]

Indeed, Bonnie! If Cowen bullies enough support, it could galvanise FF’s core vote (Brian bates them Dublin meeja hoors). Result: losses, but not meltdown. Enter a new leader, FF regroups, gains at the 2014 elections, and wins the 2015/6 election.


A new leader could get a bounce. But Martin, Hanafin, Lenihan and O’Cuiv (the compromise?) are identifiable with failure. None would have time to halt FF’s decline. And no one’s seat is so secure they could spend three weeks campaigning for everybody else.


Labour migdht have played this better if they kept up a media storm, increasing pressure on Cowen via backbenchers and grass roots. By the time it’s debated, Cowen will either be



in situ with sullen but chastened supporter
Taoiseach but not FF leader
a backbencher

In the first case, Labour could be presented as petty politickers (rich, coming from FF). They might drop slightly in the polls, if voters prefer FG’s line (FF’s house is burning - we don’t need matches), or decide that Caoimhin O’Caolain damaged Cowen. In the last two, the need to build on the bounce might see FF drag out the election as long as possible. They won’t go quietly...

[Macy]

Indeed, Bonnie! If Cowen bullies enough support, it could galvanise FF’s core vote (Brian bates them Dublin meeja hoors). Result: losses, but not meltdown. Enter a new leader, FF regroups, gains at the 2014 elections, and wins the 2015/6 election.

Didn't work for Cowen the last time he tried to bully his way through a crisis. Cowen is an asset for the Opposition going into an election - the labour motion either ensures he's there to face the music if the circle the wagons theory is correct or he's replaced by someone who has to basically stand up and endorse his policies aganist the motion, and the rest of FF/Greens have to vote to endorse those policies as well. Or there's an election on Labours rather than FF's terms.

[Lim till i die]

Lot of assumption on here that Labours motion was actually thought out and not just yet another scrambled attempt at beating Sinn Fein to the populist vote by copying them and making a louder noise about it.

Cowen will be gone by middle of next week surely. O'Cuiv would be hilarious.

[Mr A]

This article (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/shabby-episode-an-example-of-all-thats-wrong-in-sorry-state-2497144.html) takes Cowen to the cleaners. It's mad to think he could survive this situation, but he might.

[dahamsta]

This article (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/shabby-episode-an-example-of-all-thats-wrong-in-sorry-state-2497144.html) takes Cowen to the cleaners. It's mad to think he could survive this situation, but he might.

As ever, the Indo writers don't have the balls to sign their names to their comments.

[Lim till i die]

When do we get to see what Bomber Harris thinks of the whole thing?? Now there's a man with courage in his convictions. :D

[BonnieShels]

Big announcement on Brendan O'Connor Show. Sunday Times to reveal their explosive headline from tomorrow's paper at 10pm on Twitter and Cowen has apparently resigned down in the local. It's Saturday and still this crap goes on...

[Billsthoughts]

As ever, the Indo writers don't have the balls to sign their names to their comments.

Its Bruce Arnold. Its in the main paper. The website seems to do that a lot tho.

[BonnieShels]

Shane Ross is running on Dublin South. That's the big announcement.

[culloty82]

Being joined by David McWilliams and Paul Sommerville, according to the Tribune.

[Billsthoughts]

david mcwilliams is qouted in other papers saying he has no interest in running. no interest in the local issues a td has to deal with.

[Dodge]

Cowen to address media at 5 this evening. RTE to cover to live

[BonnieShels]

He's gonna stay... that's my thinking. Live on Sky News

[BonnieShels]

He's sticking around. Like a bad smell or a one night stand.

EDIT: Mehole Martin to have a press conference within the hour.

[culloty82]

Martin offered resignation as a minister, but Cowen refused it. Will oppose the confidence motion, will be interesting to see Hanafin's stance.

[dahamsta]

Cowen showing himself up for the idiot child he truly is. Feck off back to Offaly Cowen, you're not wanted by anyone bar your hangers on.

Here's hoping O'Keefe is first against the wall.

[Billsthoughts]

he consulted all of the party all weekend so now he is going to have a vote. what the hell was he consulting the party for then? surely he knows the result of the vote! talk about a non event of a press conference.

[BonnieShels]

Talk about 2 non-event press conferences. Apparently Lendahand will have one tomorrow. Dear lord.

[jinxy lilywhite]

According to RTE Biffo lives to fight another day

[BonnieShels]

Yep. It's all over the net now. That'll do! Phew!

[Mr A]

Delighted. One step closer to oblivion.

[BonnieShels]

The excitement starts again... now we wait on VB so that he can tell us the front pages tomorrow. Hopefully the Mail will have some Anglo filth.

Edit: Martin resigns as MoFA

[jebus]

Election called for March 11th

Roll on a Lab/FG coalition to take the blame for FF's mess before the Irish people vote in a changed Fianna Fail in approx 4 years time

At this stage I will denounce democracy and e mail Paolo Di Canio about this non-racist fascism he's been going on about the last few years

[superfrank]

It's funny that you mention that, jebus.

I have been thinking that a temporary dictatorship wouldn't be all that bad in the current climate. It'd offer the opportunity for widespread, thorough reform by whoever gets there first. Cut off NAMA, cut off the banks, bring in proper electoral reform plus reversing the billion other things wrong with this country.

It's just a pity I have this damn dissertation to do...

Unfortunately, I believe in democracy, which is frustrating. It's just so bloody pointless in this country with the idiotic majority of the electorate voting for their buddies. This is a chance for the electorate to really stand up for themselves and tell the politicians not to mess them around. The cynic in me says that a lot of the FF chancers will be getting back in. And if not this time, then definitely the next one.

[peadar1987]

What are the procedures for banning an organisation? I mean, the IRA are a banned organisation, and they never did half the damage to the country FF did!

[shantykelly]

according to breaking news, the greens have pulled out of government, citing a break down in trust, patience and communication with fianna fail. how long till the election now? looks like someone handed gormleys balls in at lost and found. still think the greens are going to suffer massively, and deservedly so.

[dahamsta]

I had a break down in trust, patience and communication with the greens quite some time ago. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

[osarusan]

I can only assume the greens are hoping the election will come so quickly that people will still associate them with the welcome downfall of the government rather than all that went before.

[Lim till i die]

When do we get to see what Bomber Harris thinks of the whole thing?? Now there's a man with courage in his convictions. :D

Wow. Just WOW! (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/lenihan-can-save-fianna-fail-with-help-from-cowen-2507373.html)

[shantykelly]

oh holy good god. ruth dudley edwards wouldn't get a look in with that amount of revisionism. unbelievable.

[Mr A]

I'm with Eoin the prostitute Harris on this one. I'd love to see Lenihan get the job. The minister for being wrong about everything, always is just the man to lead FF to richly deserved oblivion.

[passinginterest]

Wow. Just WOW! (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/lenihan-can-save-fianna-fail-with-help-from-cowen-2507373.html)

I couldn't sleep last night and read that at about 4am, I was hoping when I woke up this morning it would have turned out to be some sort of night terror, but no there really is people that delusional in the world. :(

[Spudulika]

I've yet to see any kind of questions asked of the Finance Bill - it's being used as a carrot for the "opposition" who are now in majority to get an early election. Yet only a week ago FG and Labour were talking about voting against it and pointing out the horrors that it will unleash. It's a simple way for FF to bail out their buddies (and FG, Labour, Greens, SF too for theirs) before they lose power. This whole mess is being used to force through a bill that will destroy the country. It's not maybe, if or possibly, it IS. The Greens should be taken out and hung, they spoke in favour of a Nuclear Power Station in Wexford, laughing about the tiny number of Chernobyl deaths (less than 10). FF have no credibility. FG are going to be as bad. While Labour, well, Labour despite the media trying to slag off their supposed lack of policies, are going to wh@re themselves to one of the previous pair to get into power. SF have not enough standing to do anything, while the spanners that are Healy Rae and the fella who had his house built by the guy who went off his head in Florida are saying they have doubts about the bill, that they might not vote for it? Until, that is, a hospital is built in Kenmare and a casino granted to North Tipp.

We are seeing all sorts of hit and move tactics and media reporting, diaspora voting, resignations, possible coalitions, funding, jobs etc etc - but nothing, nothing is being done to rid the country of levels of corruption and nepotism that are more akin to Turkmenistan.

We're going to get the same type of governance as we've always had because, like an abused spouse, we're too used to it and too scared to try something different.

[BonnieShels]

On the Finance Bill, Noonan said yesterday that the bill that they will be voting on bears little resemblance to the budget as was announced and that it has been seriously watered down. He also said that it is a matter of expediency at this stage and that anything in it that they don't agree with they will change if they get into power.
Simples.

[Macy]

The opposition don't have a majority for the Finance Bill - the greens have said they'll vote in favour of the Finance Bill, and haven't indicated how they'll vote in the confidence motions. I'd take the opposite view, in that the opposition are using the Finance Bill stick to beat our an earlier election and a orderly change over. Cowen could go to the park on Wednesday and still set an 11th March election date.

[BonnieShels]

Correct. But FF arent guaranteed that majority as it stands due to some back benchers not voting for it.
There is no way at this stage that Cowen could try that stunt.
Anyway, afaik an election must be held within at least 30 working days of the dissolution of the Dáil. So it won't drag out to March 11th.

Edit: Just did the maths there and dissolution on Friday gives us a maximum date if March 11th.

[Macy]

There is no way at this stage that Cowen could try that stunt.
Last week he was going around saying that he couldn't lead the Government if he wasn't FF leader - Never underestimate FFers!