Election 2011 - General

[Eminence Grise]

The Greens should be taken out and hung, they spoke in favour of a Nuclear Power Station in Wexford, laughing about the tiny number of Chernobyl deaths (less than 10).

Link. Please, pretty please, link.

Spudulika, I usually find myself in agreement with you, but those facts are, afaik, dead wrong. A nuclear reactor for Wexford wasn’t in the Programme for Government, the revised PfG, or either of the manifestos of the three governing parties in 2007. Are you mixing up your information with Eamon Ryan calling for a debate on nuclear energy, which, he said, would give voters enough information to decide to reject an Irish nuclear plant? I graded a dissertation recently enough on governmental policy on nuclear power in Ireland that failed to mention either of your points. (Granted, they may have been made after the student finished: I stand open to correction).

Is it just me or is there a lot of guff on this site recently about the Greens? The kind of screaming hyperbole that would fit better with the Tea Party Movement than with otherwise sensible posters (and even those I disagree with are generally sensible and well-reasoned)?

Yes: the Greens are architects of their own misfortune. Yes: they are going to be punished by the electorate for propping up FF, and it’s not undeserved. Yes: people are hurting because of increases in fuel prices, and because many Green policies cost to implement. Yes: they deserve criticism for their actions. Yes: they showed incredible naivety over the last 4 years. Yes: they speak to a middle-class urban voter, and not the electorate as a whole....

But no party deserves to be slaughtered with wilful disinformation and the kind of vitriol those articulate chaps in the IFA and the tally-ho West Brit hunting brigade proffer instead of discourse.

And lest I’m accused of partisanship, the same applies for every party.

A little more belle raison, chère clarté, if you please.

Rant over. Politics lecturer’s hat taken off until classes recommence next week...

[Macy]

But no party deserves to be slaughtered with wilful disinformation and the kind of vitriol those articulate chaps in the IFA and the tally-ho West Brit hunting brigade proffer instead of discourse.
I wouldn't have thought they've been hammered on here on the basis of IFA or pro-hunt lobby tbh. For all the other completely valid (imo) reasons you mentioned - and you missed Gormley leading them in after the feckin planet bertie speech - yes they have been hammered on here.

I'd agree with you I don't recall them being in favour of nuclear, and I think that all blew up over Greens in other countries moving towards nuclear being a least worse option. Not 100% but I think the French Greens support nuclear power as a fossil fuel alternative. Of course, once the interconnector (one of Ryan's pet projects) is live, if it isn't already, Ireland is already effectively nuclear powered anyway.

[Spudulika]

Link. Please, pretty please, link.

Spudulika, I usually find myself in agreement with you, but those facts are, afaik, dead wrong. A nuclear reactor for Wexford wasn’t in the Programme for Government, the revised PfG, or either of the manifestos of the three governing parties in 2007. Are you mixing up your information with Eamon Ryan calling for a debate on nuclear energy, which, he said, would give voters enough information to decide to reject an Irish nuclear plant? I graded a dissertation recently enough on governmental policy on nuclear power in Ireland that failed to mention either of your points. (Granted, they may have been made after the student finished: I stand open to correction).

Is it just me or is there a lot of guff on this site recently about the Greens? The kind of screaming hyperbole that would fit better with the Tea Party Movement than with otherwise sensible posters (and even those I disagree with are generally sensible and well-reasoned)?

Yes: the Greens are architects of their own misfortune. Yes: they are going to be punished by the electorate for propping up FF, and it’s not undeserved. Yes: people are hurting because of increases in fuel prices, and because many Green policies cost to implement. Yes: they deserve criticism for their actions. Yes: they showed incredible naivety over the last 4 years. Yes: they speak to a middle-class urban voter, and not the electorate as a whole....

But no party deserves to be slaughtered with wilful disinformation and the kind of vitriol those articulate chaps in the IFA and the tally-ho West Brit hunting brigade proffer instead of discourse.

And lest I’m accused of partisanship, the same applies for every party.

A little more belle raison, chère clarté, if you please.

Rant over. Politics lecturer’s hat taken off until classes recommence next week...

It was on PK Today Spring 2009, a debate with the Greens spokesman on the Nuclear debate, a rep from Npower and "a nuclear energy expert". The Greensman spoke heavily in favour of the Carnsore Point development, Kenny never took him apart. The "expert" said that the deaths from Chernobyl were in single figures, the Npower rep said that Nuclear power would be good business from an Irish point of view.

I know what I'm talking about on this as part of a mini-thesis I re-discovered the old plans from the late-70's in a study of an old Marxist Geography Journal which correctly pointed out the major flaws in Government thinking. Since then I've always kept an eye on the objectives of the government shakers because the plan has only been shelved. I know what I heard on RTE Radio 1 and I apologise I cannot produce a link, though I have mentioned this previously on threads.

In the past I voted for my local Green candidate where there was one, usually up in the top 3 preference slot. I was delighted to see them come in, though as in the mid-late 90's in Germany, they proved themselves no match for the lizards that occupy mainstream politics. They got into bed with one of the most corrupt kleptocracies this nation has seen since DeValera, and didn't have the courage of their convictions to get out when they saw what they were dealing with.

I hope and pray that this upcoming election will deliver a government worth respecting, though the manner in which they will push through this finance bill, continue to sell the soul of the nation, and refuse to do anything that resembles progressive planning, it's sickening.

Again I apologise for not providing a link, though I am certain that an RTE head on hear can provide an archived link to prove me right.

[peadar1987]

Wow. Just WOW! (http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/lenihan-can-save-fianna-fail-with-help-from-cowen-2507373.html)

Although he does make a good point near the end, the Irish electorate is easily stupid enough to put Brian Lenihan in charge of the country purely on the basis that he got better from cancer.

[dahamsta]

The redtop readers probably think he cured it.

[Mr A]

Mattie McGrath to run as an Independent: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0125/treacyn.html

Fortunately we can trust the good people of Tipperary not to be taken in by such a transparently cynical move.

Well. It could happen.

[John83]

Mattie McGrath to run as an Independent: http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0125/treacyn.html

Fortunately we can trust the good people of Tipperary not to be taken in by such a transparently cynical move.

Well. It could happen.
My mother's from there, and I swear that every time I visit relatives down there I hear a new story about Mattie McGrath doing something stupid. It's like he's their pet retard or something.

[backstothewall]

First of all deepest condolences to all those effected. I am conscious of the sensitivities involved and not at all attempting to play down or belittle the tragedy that occurred in Cork yesterday.

But what, if any, will be the impact on the election campaign of the plane crash? Events such as this can have a dramatic impact on elections. A different situation entirely, but the Madrid bombings cost the peoples party a Spanish General Election they were almost certain to win.

We are a lot further out, and even FF aren't daft enough to try to pull the stroke the PP tried then, so one would expect the impact to be much less in this situation. But will there be any impact at all?

Could the statesmanlike performance (he has done very well in the coverage we are getting in the north, though I haven't seen as much of him in southern news) of Martin McGuinness, or the fact he was almost on the plane, have any impact on SF's performance? Is the airport in Micheál Martin's constituency?

Obviously this is remains speculative business at this point. There are a number of funerals to come, which will, rightly or wrongly, be set piece media events where a politician can do him or her self enormous credit/damage with a few words. and

[dahamsta]

Without trying to minimise the loss of life, it's a 12 person crash with 6 fatalities, what possible effect could it have on a national election? If it does, we're a lot worse than even my low estimations of the country as a whole.

[backstothewall]

Without trying to minimise the loss of life, it's a 12 person crash with 6 fatalities, what possible effect could it have on a national election? If it does, we're a lot worse than even my low estimations of the country as a whole.

Not necessarily anything so blunt as someone deciding that they have got over 30 years of the IRA because McGuinness missed his plane, but it has had an affect already by dominating the news agenda for 2 days. As tragic an event as it was, it couldn't have happened at a better time for Enda Kenny. Debate-gate is dead because of it.

And no one on here will need to have the role of funerals in Irish political life explained to them.

[mypost]

But what, if any, will be the impact on the election campaign of the plane crash? Events such as this can have a dramatic impact on elections. A different situation entirely, but the Madrid bombings cost the peoples party a Spanish General Election they were almost certain to win.

We are a lot further out, and even FF aren't daft enough to try to pull the stroke the PP tried then, so one would expect the impact to be much less in this situation. But will there be any impact at all?

Al-Qaeda Outrage v Air Accident from Fog. It's not really a like-for-like comparison. FG and Lab will still coast home.

[paudie]

Not necessarily anything so blunt as someone deciding that they have got over 30 years of the IRA because McGuinness missed his plane, but it has had an affect already by dominating the news agenda for 2 days. As tragic an event as it was, it couldn't have happened at a better time for Enda Kenny. Debate-gate is dead because of it.

And no one on here will need to have the role of funerals in Irish political life explained to them.

"Debate Gate" as you call it, was a non-event anyway. Even the meeja are acknowleding that Kenny's non appearance won't matter, especially as he is due to appear in 3 debates before the end of the campaign.

[BonnieShels]

So... how will all these O'Callaghan revelations affect Micheal?

[culloty82]

Who's for an FG minority government?

FG 38% (+3)
Lab 20% (-2)
FF 15% (-2)
I/O 14% (+3)
SF 10% (-3)
GP 3% (+1)

If it did transpire that Labour became the main Opposition party, it would pretty much lock FF into third-party status (they'd barely make 20 seats on these figures).

[BonnieShels]

Are these the new RedC figures?

[culloty82]

Yes, this is the new Red C poll - the projections given from this are:

FG 76
Lab 38
FF 20
Ind 20
SF 12
Greens 0

[BonnieShels]

Still can't see us having that many independents.

[mypost]

Yes, this is the new Red C poll - the projections given from this are:

FG 76
Lab 38
FF 20
Ind 20
SF 12
Greens 0

:eek:

[Spudulika]

We're overestimating the power of the voting booth, FF will jump a good 10-15 seats. 10 Independents, FG with less, hopefully Leo the Lovely not re-elected.

[holidaysong]

That Independents category also includes ULA candidates.

[Macy]

Who's for an FG minority government?
FG-FF coalition - the only one that makes sense on the figures!

You are right, long term it isn't the worst news for Labour if they are clear leaders of the opposition - could effectively seal FF's fate, as they are counting on being leaders of the opposition for their long term survival. Also, could FF survive financially at that number of seats? They're broke as it is, and then obviously they'll be way down on state funding. I suppose the developers would find a way to funnel money back from Marbella...

[tetsujin1979]

my friend Adam is doing a masters at the moment based around social searches, and is looking for volunteers to watch the leader's debate, monitor twitter and eat pizza in DCU tonight
You can contact him via twitter here: http://twitter.com/#!/adambermingham/

[culloty82]

The Boards poll (http://www.boards.ie/vote/results.php?type=national) is a load of nonsense, but entertaining nonsense all the same, I'd say you'ld get hefty odds.

[legendz]

I hope FG do not do any deals whatsoever with FF. Labour got burned for that in '97. If a look is taken at the European political groupings, FG and Labour belong to the two biggest groupings and FF are only are minority in Europe. I think people's interest are best served with either Fine Gael or Labour depending on whether they are left or right.

[culloty82]

I hope FG do not do any deals whatsoever with FF. Labour got burned for that in '97. If a look is taken at the European political groupings, FG and Labour belong to the two biggest groupings and FF are only are minority in Europe. I think people's interest are best served with either Fine Gael or Labour depending on whether they are left or right.

Going by the Indo's poll, there mightn't even be much of an FF left to do any deals:

FG 38%
Lab 23%
Oth 16%
FF 12%
SF 10%
GP 1%

Their seat predictions based on this:

FG 78
Lab 42
Ind 14
=FF 13
=SF 13
ULA 6

[Kingdom]

Going by the Indo's poll, there mightn't even be much of an FF left to do any deals:

FG 38%
Lab 23%
Oth 16%
FF 12%
SF 10%
GP 1%

Their seat predictions based on this:

FG 78
Lab 42
Ind 14
=FF 13
=SF 13
ULA 6

Lads can someone help me out here.... take the figures quoted above, there is no clear overall majority for FG but the numbers are so bad for everyone else, it would take the coalition of all coalitions to overtake FG, what happens?

[Macy]

The gerrymandering of the consitituencies mean that they'll be an over representation of FG in seat terms. Again can I just laugh at FF being a major loser because of the number of 3 and 4 seaters :).

Can't see a coalition of everyone else to keep FG out, too many clashing interests, even among "others". If FG fall short, it will really come down to independents - I can't see FG giving enough up for Labour to go in at this stage, and there is an attraction to Labour of being the largest and clear opposition and finally having a left right divide, with a labour led left wing coalition the next election. All assuming the figures stay the same of course.

[Real ale Madrid]

Lads can someone help me out here.... take the figures quoted above, there is no clear overall majority for FG but the numbers are so bad for everyone else, it would take the coalition of all coalitions to overtake FG, what happens?

It would be incumbent on FG - the party with the most seats to negotiate with the minority parties. FG / FF could be a viable option, given the figures quoted above. As would FG / SF and the obvious FG / Lab. I worse FF do, the more chance FG teaming up with them imo.

I would hate to see independents form part of the next Government - that should be one of big lessons from the last 13 years and we should be looking to avoid.

[geysir]

Gilmore referred to this election being a defining/decisive election for the next 20 years.
I think he was referring to, that the choices made by the people re electing a new government will have a heavy influence on the state of the nation for the next 20 years.
I doubt it, the immediate issue facing the new government will be default and how we default, or else face a worse chaos. A FG government avoiding the issue of default can't last more than 18 months and in all likelihood there will be a string of elections amidst social and political chaos

Would Gilmore/Labour not be better off with a longer term plan, instead of hoping for coalition appointment should they not hope/plan for a FG majority and plan ahead for the election after this one?
Do the words of one of the Green Party ex ministers really hold water, that one bad day in government is worth a year on the opposition - or something to that effect?

Good God! Micheál Martin is singing "My ol' man's a busdriver" on the FF party political broadcast on RTE.

[mypost]

It would be incumbent on FG - the party with the most seats to negotiate with the minority parties. FG / FF could be a viable option, given the figures quoted above.

It's a viable option on the figures, but not on practicality. I think Enda would rather emigrate than hop into bed with the enemy. The public wouldn't take it very well either.

Still looks like a nailed-on FG/Labour coalition, and for both parties sake, that's probably the best option. In the current climate, a sole FG majority could be a disaster for them when the cuts/policies are implemented, and the public turn on them.

[culloty82]

A political compass type site (http://www.votomatic.ie/Home.aspx) that's exclusively Irish.

[Spudulika]

No matter who gets in I can't see the government lasting more than 2-3 years, then a massive break down and a new election with Monty Martin leading the soldiers of destiny to glory, with Labour in tow. Love to see FG-SF, never happen though.

culloty: thanks for the link, I just realised I'm against FG and FF and heavily Labour and SF, and mildly Green. Sorry Enda, I think I just found my inner red :p

[John83]

A political compass type site (http://www.votomatic.ie/Home.aspx) that's exclusively Irish.
I gave up on page 2, when it asked whether I agree or disagree that a fund which has already been spent should be invested in infrastructure.

[mypost]

No matter who gets in I can't see the government lasting more than 2-3 years, then a massive break down and a new election with Monty Martin leading the soldiers of destiny to glory, with Labour in tow. Love to see FG-SF, never happen though.

culloty: thanks for the link, I just realised I'm against FG and FF and heavily Labour and SF, and mildly Green. Sorry Enda, I think I just found my inner red

I do want a change of government and I'm happy with Enda as Taoiseach, but FG's economic policies worry me, as they sound FF-lite, especially when it comes to social welfare, which hasn't played a big part in the campaign. I think Labour's economic policies are fairer.

Nationally they need each other for stability. A FF-majority would be wafer thin and vulnerable to a couple of Dail rebel votes, as the last government constantly was.

[Macy]

Still looks like a nailed-on FG/Labour coalition
It's not looked less nailed on for bloody years. FG won't want to give up enough cabinet seats to make it worth Labours while or Labour have to go in with little influence and at least an equal share of the blame.

Labour have the chance to lead the following Government if they let FG take the hit for the coming cuts/ taxes - finally forcing the left right split. It would also help FG long term, as they'll become the natural right wing alternative with FF possibly third in the opposition pecking order and their future in doubt.

Caveat is obviously if the current seat projections/ polls are accurate, I can't see a FG-Labour coalition.

[Spudulika]

I do want a change of government and I'm happy with Enda as Taoiseach, but FG's economic policies worry me, as they sound FF-lite, especially when it comes to social welfare, which hasn't played a big part in the campaign. I think Labour's economic policies are fairer.

Nationally they need each other for stability. A FF-majority would be wafer thin and vulnerable to a couple of Dail rebel votes, as the last government constantly was.

Agree with you on the FG economic policies, it's a reason I am less than keen on Varadkar as he really hasn't a clue what he's talking about - you know once he opens his mouth he's spouting the type of Maggie Thatcher rhetoric that makes FF look clever. Labour and SF have economic policies that at least try to account for the public in general.

I've said it before and I still think it'll be a FF-Labour government, with a few indies thrown in!

[Macy]

i've said it before and i still think it'll be a ff-labour government, with a few indies thrown in!
they won't have the feckin numbers!!!!!

On current numbers FF and Labour would be around 60 - that's some number of indies to make up to 83!

[geysir]

You might well worry about FG policies, the destructive core is all hidden in obfuscation.
One FG spoof is about the Health system. FG say they want to adopt the Dutch model.

The actual text in the FG manifesto reads
"Our ultimate goal is to establish a system of Universal Health Insurance (UHI), based on the very efficient Dutch model – but adapted to Irish circumstances"

The Dutch model has compulsary (with some opt outs) state insurance for long term care and private strictly regulated insurance for other health care.
When FG say they will adapt this model for the Irish circumstances, actually they look at a Van Gogh and decide to sketch a cow in the field on the back of a sheet of paper.
FG will not have compulsary state insurance for long term care, they will totally privatise insurance to administer the system but retain the restricted medical card system.
Any resemblance to the Dutch model will be purely coincidental.
Even with that, the Dutch model has not proven itself to be more efficient than what existed before nor has it reduced costs.

When FG write "adapting to Irish circumstances" means adapting a decent enough structure down to the level of cheap suit dysfunctional capabilities of the FG leaders.

[John83]

You might well worry about FG policies, the destructive core is all hidden in obfuscation.
One FG spoof is about the Health system. FG say they want to adopt the Dutch model.

The actual text in the FG manifesto reads
"Our ultimate goal is to establish a system of Universal Health Insurance (UHI), based on the very efficient Dutch model – but adapted to Irish circumstances"

The Dutch model has compulsary (with some opt outs) state insurance for long term care and private strictly regulated insurance for other health care.
When FG say they will adapt this model for the Irish circumstances, actually they look at a Van Gogh and decide to sketch a cow in the field on the back of a sheet of paper.
FG will not have compulsary state insurance for long term care, they will totally privatise insurance to administer the system but retain the restricted medical card system.
Any resemblance to the Dutch model will be purely coincidental.
Even with that, the Dutch model has not proven itself to be more efficient than what existed before nor has it reduced costs.

When FG write "adapting to Irish circumstances" means adapting a decent enough structure down to the level of cheap suit dysfunctional capabilities of the FG leaders.

Geysir, I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I detest rambling diatribes about how things are going to be **** because of a wild guess at the details of something. Do you have anything to base your assertions on, or have you just decided that FG can't possibly get it right*.

*Granted, it's healthcare, no one ever gets it right, and if they did, local interests would immediately bring the system down.

[BonnieShels]

SBP Red C poll: FG: 39% (+1), Lab: 17% (-3), FF: 16% (+1), SF: 12% (+2), Grns: 2% (-1), Ind: 14% (nc)

And the Sindo one is...



FF 16% (+4), FG 37% (-1) Lab 20% (-3) Grn 1% (-) SF 12% (+2) Ind 14% (-2)

Enda is also the more popular choice for Taoiseach in both polls.

Now,that my friends is a turnaround and a half.

[mypost]

TV is a powerful judge of a political leader. Gilmore was well ahead until the soundbites stopped and the debating started.

[Macy]

TV is a powerful judge of a political leader. Gilmore was well ahead until the soundbites stopped and the debating started.
I don't think that's true - it's more that the FG/FF campaigns have been better about portraying that, and Labour have had a poor campaign. They've got the opposite of the "big mo" and it's hard to turn that around. Started with a few poor performances by Joan Burton, and then the right wing media bricking it about the possibility of a left wing alternative which raised it's head after the byelection, which lead to constant attacks on Labour, SF (who have also suffered from this) and the ULA.

[mypost]

There haven't been any media attacks on Labour from what I can see. Gilmore has brought all the grief on his party by himself. His posters, (for a party which currently has as little as 20 seats) looked preposterous. His debating skills when it mattered, fell well short of the public's expectations. He and his party haven't slipped so far so fast in the polls for no reason.

There are good people in Labour, strong candidates, but if he doesn't get into office, he will have to step down, and Labour will have to do more soul-searching. Labour won't have such an open-goal against FF again.

[Mr A]

While I agree that Labour have run a pretty dreadful campaign, the bias of the likes of the Indo against them is constant.

[Macy]

Just because you believe the myth mypost, doesn't make it true.

The bias isn't just against Labour, it's against the left in general. It doesn't matter how many economists agree with the shinners on the nonsense of the EU/IMF deal, the media is still happy to portray them as some sort of nutjobs who haven't a clue. Now maybe they are, but there's enough academic support for their viewpoint that at least makes it a valid opinion.

[peadar1987]

Just because you believe the myth mypost, doesn't make it true.

The bias isn't just against Labour, it's against the left in general. It doesn't matter how many economists agree with the shinners on the nonsense of the EU/IMF deal, the media is still happy to portray them as some sort of nutjobs who haven't a clue. Now maybe they are, but there's enough academic support for their viewpoint that at least makes it a valid opinion.

It's always the way. For an extreme case, look at the US. When your news is delivered by major for-profit corporations, of course they aren't going to encourage the idea of higher taxation and improved public services. And the state broadcasters are always obliged to be impartial, it's all very one-sided.

[culloty82]

Not sure if this is the final opinion poll, but the Indo has FG and Labour holding steady and FF back to Cowenesque support levels:

FG 38% (+1)
Lab: 20% (0)
Ind: 16% (+2)
FF: 14% (-2)
SF: 11% (-1)
GP: 1% (0)

[BonnieShels]

This is he final opinion poll... FG hit the magic number...

RedC/PaddyPower 23rd Feb: FG 40 +1, Lab 18 +1, FF 15 -1, SF 10 -1, Green 3 +1, Ind 14

[mypost]

It's still not enough imo. FF got 41% on results day last time, and got 78 seats. Based on that, FG need another 2-3% to get into majority territory.

[Mr A]

But FG will be more transfer friendly than FF ever were.. could be a close run thing.