Republic of Ireland V Latvia - Wednesday, 22nd March 2023 - Friendly

[SkStu]

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

[tetsujin1979]

Norway didn't qualify for Euro 2020, their last finals was Euro 2000.
Sorry, thought you meant Scotland

[Eirambler]

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

Winning the group or best second placed team would have gotten us a second seeding. Even just the results we got plus beating Ukraine (or more accurately their second team for the most part) at home would have done it. It would have guaranteed a playoff too. The team setup for those first two Nations League games was appalling as well. A massive missed opportunity.

[elatedscum]

Even your biased view gives it close to 50/50. And you could have Henry ahead of Coman and Anelka ahead of Giroud. So not really a huge gap between them.

I went off the formation on Wiki with Anelka playing RW, Henry LW etc

[elatedscum]

Eirambler - Out of interest, what would we have had to do to become second seeds? Win the NL group? Or something less than that? Just want to understand this golden opportunity.

Pretty much. Ukraine finished 2nd and are 3rd seeds

[tetsujin1979]

I went off the formation on Wiki with Anelka playing RW, Henry LW etc
Anelka had a free role, coming off the right. Was the best player on the pitch in the home leg

[John83]

This is just silly.

France were a 119th minute world class save away from being world champions. They're a side with quality all over the pitch we can only dream of. They are so superior that they could come to Dublin and win by 3 goals and it still wouldn't automatically be a terrible night for Kenny. There could still be positives in defeat. I'd even say the same about the Dutch, albeit to a lesser extent.

The idea that Kenny needs a good result against France isn't one I'd agree with myself. He needs solid performances against the French and the Dutch.

He needs results against Greece and Gibraltar.
France's elo rating right now is 2082. Ours is 1676. Statistically, us getting a result against France would be comparable to Rawanda or Indonesia getting a result against us. If it happens, Deschamps should be fired. Even in a friendly.

[WexCar.]

France's elo rating right now is 2082. Ours is 1676. Statistically, us getting a result against France would be comparable to Rawanda or Indonesia getting a result against us. If it happens, Deschamps should be fired. Even in a friendly.

Well Malta aren't that far off Rwanda or Indonesia and we barely scraped past them with a lucky goal.

While the odds are heavily against us winning, it is reasonable to expect this team to be able to make it difficult for France and keep the game close.

Ultimately in this group to be a success for us, I would want 12 pts from Greece and Gibraltar and good displays against NL & FR regardless of the result. That would show progress as a team and put us in good momentum and form should we find ourselves in a playoff

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Lads, on that ELO rankings, France are 3rd. Portugal are 5th. We drew with Portugal at home and nearly beat them away in the World Cup campaign. Ok, we had Anthony Barry at that stage but it was under Kenny's reign. Drawing at home to France will take some luck but it really isn't as outlandish as some of you are making it out.

[pineapple stu]

The more relevant fact to take from the Elo ratings is that Portugal are 100 points weaker than France. That's a lot. It close to halves our chances of a draw.

Plus Portugal weren't that bothered about the game in Dublin and left out 4/5 players. But losing and not getting any injuries ahead of Serbia was the key.

We're actually more likely to draw against Latvia than France based on ratings and that would be a pretty crap result.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

The more relevant fact to take from the Elo ratings is that Portugal are 100 points weaker than France. That's a lot. It close to halves our chances of a draw.

Plus Portugal weren't that bothered about the game in Dublin and left out 4/5 players. But losing and not getting any injuries ahead of Serbia was the key.

We're actually more likely to draw against Latvia than France based on ratings and that would be a pretty crap result.

If matches were decided by ELO rankings then we'd probably never qualify for anything. What was the difference in ELO rankings between Saudi Arabia and Argentina at the World Cup? Japan and Germany?

Again, we've been beaten in qualification groups 4 times at home since 2005. We are not easy to beat. And we've played some very good teams. I don't think we've ever gone into a home match without considering we could get a draw at least.

[elatedscum]

Interesting that Greece are ahead of us on Elo rankings

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Interesting that Greece are ahead of us on Elo rankings

Not really. Results have been very bad for Ireland the past few years so many teams have moved past us.

[pineapple stu]

If matches were decided by ELO rankings then we'd probably never qualify for anything. What was the difference in ELO rankings between Saudi Arabia and Argentina at the World Cup? Japan and Germany?
I'm not sure you understand how Elo works. A difference of 400 points - which is what we have here - means we should score 10% over a set period of games (eg we might win one in ten, or draw one in five). 300 points (ie us v Portugal) means we should score 17% (eg one win in six, or one draw in three).

You don't undermine that argument by simply picking the one win in ten and saying it's defeatist to talk about the 9 chances of defeat, which is what you're trying to do. There's actually quite a strong correlation between Elo and match results.

[Eirambler]

Do those ELO figures take home advantage into account? Seems like they have limited meaning if they don't.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

I'm not sure you understand how Elo works. A difference of 400 points - which is what we have here - means we should score 10% over a set period of games (eg we might win one in ten, or draw one in five). 300 points (ie us v Portugal) means we should score 17% (eg one win in six, or one draw in three).

You don't undermine that argument by simply picking the one win in ten and saying it's defeatist to talk about the 9 chances of defeat, which is what you're trying to do. There's actually quite a strong correlation between Elo and match results.

Not that I don't understand, I don't care how they work. I'm saying with our 4 defeats in qualifiers at home in 18 years, it's not impossible to get a draw against France. ELO rankings never scored a goal.

[Supreme feet]

Not that I don't understand, I don't care how they work. I'm saying with our 4 defeats in qualifiers at home in 18 years, it's not impossible to get a draw against France. ELO rankings never scored a goal.

Worth mentioning that we've only won 2 qualifying games out of 19 against first/second seeds at home in those 18 years (Germany, Bosnia 2015).

[JR89]

Do those ELO figures take home advantage into account? Seems like they have limited meaning if they don't.

Pretty sure they do.

[samhaydenjr]

Not that I don't understand, I don't care how they work. I'm saying with our 4 defeats in qualifiers at home in 18 years, it's not impossible to get a draw against France. ELO rankings never scored a goal.


Worth mentioning that we've only won 2 qualifying games out of 19 against first/second seeds at home in those 18 years (Germany, Bosnia 2015).

So... 1-1 draw it is then

[elatedscum]

Considering we now have the squad now, as much as some want to argue over it, how would ye approach the 2 games?



1. Bazunu/Kelleher
2. Doherty
3. O’Shea
4. Egan
5. Collins
6. McClean
7. Cullen
8. Molumby
9. Knight/Smallbone/Sykes/McGrath
10. Ferguson
11. Obafemi/Parrott

I think I’d be confident in knowing for sure 8 of my starting 11 against France, probably even 9.

X??Doherty
O’Shea
Egan
Collins
McClean
?Cullen
Molumby
X??Ferguson ?X

Against Latvia, I’d plan to play two different formations. I’d play the first half in a 5-3-2 and the second half in a 4-3-3. What we’ve found is that against weaker sides - once we score, 5-3-2 is successful but when teams sit deep, and we don’t score early, we can struggle to break them down. So I think going forward, being able to play both systems would help avoid most of those calamity results or near misses.

GK: I’d start with Kelleher in goal for the Latvia game. I’d very likely start Bazunu for the France game but I’d make that call after the Latvia game was over. If for some reason, Kelleher managed to perform so well that it changed my opinion. Don’t see it as being likely but no harm in having the info

RWB: Doherty - he probably needs minutes against Latvia, but not too many. He struggles with fitness when playing 2 games in a short space of time, no point on burning him out. So I’d play him and switch him for Coleman after 55 mins. I don’t fancy Mbappe taking on Coleman and the pace differential, so I think Doc is the only option. I’d play 5 at the back and try have your wing back and your right sided centre half (O’Shea) double up on Mbappe. Same on the other side with Coman or Kolo Muani or whoever will be playing right wing. Then just hope that the space that their fullbacks get at a result doesn’t cost us too much. But generally the real danger France have comes from the 3 behind Giroud - the two wingers and Griezmann.

RCB - O’Shea - I’d start Omobamidele against Latvia to give him minutes and to see how he looks after the injury but I think O’Shea is the starter for the France game. Coleman is playing really well of late and is an option but I do think he’s a better right back than a right wing back or right centre half.

CB - Egan - will probably captain the side. I’d start him against Latvia and take him off after 45 and bring on a winger and move to a back 4. He doesn’t need the minutes particularly.

LCB - Collins - get him 90 mins against Latvia and again against France.

LWB - McClean. I haven’t seen a huge amount of O’Dowda at LWB but I’d trust McClean a bit more defensively and that he’d be a bit more fight about him which we’ll probably need against the french. I’d start O’Dowda against the Latvians and bring on McClean at the same time as Coleman, in part because McClean is probably better at left back.

RCM - Molumby would start for me against France. It’s between him and Hendrick and I’d value the extra bite, energy and athleticism he provides. Hendrick probably to come on when Molumby is at risk of getting a second yellow. ??CM - Cullen. I’d wrap him in cotton wool for the Latvia game given his current workload and his lack of a viable replacement. I’d start Smallbone along with Hendrick in the Latvia game.

LCM - the more attacking midfielder - i’d most likely start Knight for the france game - and probably Sykes for the Latvia game - but i’m undecided. All of Knight, Smallbone, Sykes, McGrath and Browne offer different qualities. Browne would be the most conservative (aeriel ability, aggression and goal threat) and probably the only one I’d be against. McGrath has been widely slated here but his performances for Ireland have been good. And he has qualities as a composed carrier of the ball, linking midfield and attack, with more vision than any of the other midfielders (a low bar).

ST - Ferguson starts for me. I’d give him 70 minutes against Latvia (before being replaced by Obafemi) and I’d start him again against France. Hard to know who is his best partner. I liked the Obafemi-Parrott pairing, I felt they had great understanding - but you can’t ignore Evan. Only problem is that you’ve got to create a partnership on the fly. ??ST - I’d start Parrott against Latvia and give him 45 minutes before bringing on Ogbene for the 4-3-3 switch. So basically game begins with a Ferguson-Parrott pair, before turning into a Ogbene-Ferguson-Johnston front 3 with Obafemi replacing Ferguson for the last 20. Obafemi needs minutes but I’d be more afraid of him picking up a knock against Latvia. He has a terrible knack of getting injured on the first game of an international window. I kinda fear Kenny might see Keane as the ideal partner for Ferguson. I hope not - but I can imagine Keane sitting deeper is something that might appeal to Kenny, the number 10 to Ferguson’s no. 9. Anyway, i’d make a call between Parrott and Obafemi after the Latvia game, seeing how they both looked.

So it’d end up with:

- Latvia First half:

Kelleher

Doherty
Omobamidele
Egan
Collins
O’Dowda

Hendrick
Smallbone
Sykes or McGrath

Parrott
Ferguson

Latvia Second half:

Kelleher

Coleman (after 55)
Omobamidele
Collins
McClean (after 55)

Same midfield with Knight coming in after 70

Ogbene
Ferguson (replaced by Obafemi after 70
Johnston


France:

Bazunu/Kelleher

Doherty
O’Shea
Egan
Collins
McClean

Cullen
Molumby
Knight/Sykes/McGrath

Parrott/Obafemi
Ferguson

[pineapple stu]

Not that I don't understand, I don't care how they work. I'm saying with our 4 defeats in qualifiers at home in 18 years, it's not impossible to get a draw against France. ELO rankings never scored a goal.
Thanks for your honesty at least; means I can safely dismiss your comments as ignorance so.


Do those ELO figures take home advantage into account? Seems like they have limited meaning if they don't.
They do. I don't think it needs to though - Elo ratings to rank chess players don't differentiate between playing as white or black for example. Effectively it'll balance out over time. Probably it was added in due to the relatively low amount of international games a country plays each year.

[pineapple stu]

Against Latvia, I’d plan to play two different formations. I’d play the first half in a 5-3-2 and the second half in a 4-3-3. What we’ve found is that against weaker sides - once we score, 5-3-2 is successful but when teams sit deep, and we don’t score early, we can struggle to break them down. So I think going forward, being able to play both systems would help avoid most of those calamity results or near misses.

GK: I’d start with Kelleher in goal for the Latvia game. I’d very likely start Bazunu for the France game but I’d make that call after the Latvia game was over. If for some reason, Kelleher managed to perform so well that it changed my opinion. Don’t see it as being likely but no harm in having the info
A good example of the detailed posts that can make this site a good read!

Two comments on the above - would we not be better starting 4-3-3 against Latvia? If we struggle to break smaller teams down with 5-3-2 (and we clearly struggle for some reason), would we not try a more attacking system from the start? I don't think I want to watch another game we should win but where for an hour we struggle to make any inroads...

Then on Kelleher - I think if he puts in such a good performance against Latvia that you'd promote him to number 1 based on it, we have bigger problems than in nets!

[texidub]

Ferguson and Obafemi seems like a more natural pairing to me than Ferguson and Parrott. Ferguson is good at holding the ball up and Obafemi can exploit those opportunities. Either pairing would have me a bit worried about our ability to press the opposition from the front when they have the ball though. From what I have seen of him playing for Brighton, Ferguson does a bit of pressing and tracking back, but it's not a major part of his game.... he seems to be the type of player that appears to amble around a lot, not looking like he's doing much of anything and then 'suddenly' scores a goal. It makes him very exciting to watch, but makes me wonder whether he needs a partner that's willing to do more chasing up front when the opposition has the ball? Nothing to be said for Ferguson and Ogbene?

[Eirambler]

Thanks for your honesty at least; means I can safely dismiss your comments as ignorance so.


They do. I don't think it needs to though - Elo ratings to rank chess players don't differentiate between playing as white or black for example. Effectively it'll balance out over time. Probably it was added in due to the relatively low amount of international games a country plays each year.

What I mean though is, when a poster says we should be heavily beaten by France because we're X number of points behind them in the ELO rankings, is that number taking account of the fact we're playing them at home?

In other words, if we were playing them away, would the points difference be higher? Because, if it wouldn't, the calculation is largely meaningless because it suggests we're equally as likely to lose to France in Dublin as we are in Paris or Marseille. The comparison between black and white in chess is a poor one, because statistically home advantage can be proven to heavily influence the outcome of a game.

[tetsujin1979]

White does have the advantage of moving first in chess

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Thanks for your honesty at least; means I can safely dismiss your comments as ignorance so.


They do. I don't think it needs to though - Elo ratings to rank chess players don't differentiate between playing as white or black for example. Effectively it'll balance out over time. Probably it was added in due to the relatively low amount of international games a country plays each year.

Wow, they've discovered a system that can predict a team ranked 3rd will probably beat a team ranked 47th. Amazing, how do they do it? We don't need some ranking system to tell us that a team like France are likely to beat Ireland.

Apart from the 4 qualifier defeats at home in 18 years stat, we've only taken one big beating in that time, against Germany. So a draw isn't out of the question like some say and a thrashing is unlikely going on our history at home. In order to qualify from this group, we need a draw at least.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

I think going on form, Coleman might be more deserving of a start. Doherty's move really hasn't gone well. Keeper and 3 centre backs pick themselves. McClean or O'Dowda is a tight one. I think McClean just edges it. Scored again yesterday. Midfield of Cullen and Molumby with one other. Sykes should get his chance to impress v Latvia but so should Smallbone, I'd have him starting v France as of now. Obefami and Ferguson up front.

Bazunu
Coleman
Collins
Egan
O Shea
McClean
Cullen
Molumby
Smallbone
Obefami
Ferguson

That's 4 premier league players, 1 on loan from a premier league team and 3 close to gaining promotion to the premier league. We're not a team of no hopers that some like to portray.

[WexCar.]

Thanks for your honesty at least; means I can safely dismiss your comments as ignorance so.


They do. I don't think it needs to though - Elo ratings to rank chess players don't differentiate between playing as white or black for example. Effectively it'll balance out over time. Probably it was added in due to the relatively low amount of international games a country plays each year.

That's hardly fair, you can't dismiss comments/opinions just because that person doesn't put has much significance on a ranking system as you do.

At the end of the day ranking positions change because results regularly happen that go against what statistics or ranking would predict (Did Elo predict the Luxembourg result in Dublin??)

As BOOM said, you don't need a ranking system to know that Ireland are unlikely to get a result against France. As long as we play a good disciplined game we can make it difficult for France even if we do lose the game

[Supreme feet]

Apart from the 4 qualifier defeats at home in 18 years stat, we've only taken one big beating in that time, against Germany.

Except it's eight.

France 05 and 09, Russia 10, Germany 12, Sweden 13, Serbia and Denmark 17, and Luxembourg 21. Unless you're discounting playoffs, but that still makes six.

For comparison, we'd only lost three in the previous eighteen years. (Spain 93, Austria 95, Switzerland 02)

Also, the 5-1 against Denmark was a pretty big beating.

[pineapple stu]

What I mean though is, when a poster says we should be heavily beaten by France because we're X number of points behind them in the ELO rankings, is that number taking account of the fact we're playing them at home?

In other words, if we were playing them away, would the points difference be higher? Because, if it wouldn't, the calculation is largely meaningless because it suggests we're equally as likely to lose to France in Dublin as we are in Paris or Marseille. The comparison between black and white in chess is a poor one, because statistically home advantage can be proven to heavily influence the outcome of a game.
It does take home advantage into account. You can see that in the list of upcoming matches and the likelihood of a win here (https://www.eloratings.net/fixtures) - so it gives Tahiti a better chance of beating New Caledonia tomorrow despite being lower-rated - reason being they're at home.

First-move advantage in chess is very similar to home advantage in football; it's statistically proven to heavily influence the outcome of a game (white scores about 55% and black scores 45%).


That's hardly fair, you can't dismiss comments/opinions just because that person doesn't put has much significance on a ranking system as you do.

At the end of the day ranking positions change because results regularly happen that go against what statistics or ranking would predict (Did Elo predict the Luxembourg result in Dublin??)

As BOOM said, you don't need a ranking system to know that Ireland are unlikely to get a result against France. As long as we play a good disciplined game we can make it difficult for France even if we do lose the game
I'm not dismissing his comments because he doesn't agree with the rating system; I'm dismissing them because he doesn't attempt to engage in it and still says that Kenny needs a result against France and stuff like that or that we drew in 2009 so we can draw again (a bizarre comparison seeing as our squad is much worse than 2009), or tries to say that there's much of a muchness between third and fifth; that sort of stuff. Elo is pretty well-respected as a measuring system and has even been incorporated into the FIFA rankings.

Elo doesn't predict individual results. What it does do is say that when you play a team 220 points lower at home (Ireland v Luxembourg), you should be winning 80% of the time (or whatever it is). And it can happen that the lower-rated team win too. If those results start exceeding chance, then something's going wrong (and indeed by the time of that Luxembourg result, we had dropped 100 points in Kenny's first ten games, which is pretty stark)

So it's not about saying France are favourites - we know that. It's about showing by how much they're favourites, and even why the comparison with the Portugal draw (even if they were up for the game in Dublin, which they weren't) isn't all that relevant because our chances of drawing with France are 40% lower.

So yeah, we can make it difficult for them even if we lose - that's fine. But when Boomers says "If we had a competent manager I'd be very confident of a draw at least", for example - well then it really helps to put the task ahead of us in perspective. That's the point of Elo.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Except it's eight.

France 05 and 09, Russia 10, Germany 12, Sweden 13, Serbia and Denmark 17, and Luxembourg 21. Unless you're discounting playoffs, but that still makes six.

For comparison, we'd only lost three in the previous eighteen years. (Spain 93, Austria 95, Switzerland 02)

Sorry, I was only including qualification matches and from after Kerr's reign but as you say, if you include everything going back to 1993, we've only lost 11 in 30 years. And I think we have to go back to the Hand era in 85 for our next home defeat. 11 home qualifier defeats in 37 years. That just shows how hard we are to beat at home. I don't have the time to look it up but I'd say not many countries have a better record than that. Especially for a country not counted amongst the big guns.

[pineapple stu]

What relevance are games from the 90s or 00s at this stage?

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

It does take home advantage into account. You can see that in the list of upcoming matches and the likelihood of a win here (https://www.eloratings.net/fixtures) - so it gives Tahiti a better chance of beating New Caledonia tomorrow despite being lower-rated - reason being they're at home.

First-move advantage in chess is very similar to home advantage in football; it's statistically proven to heavily influence the outcome of a game (white scores about 55% and black scores 45%).


I'm not dismissing his comments because he doesn't agree with the rating system; I'm dismissing them because he doesn't attempt to engage in it and still says that Kenny needs a result against France and stuff like that or that we drew in 2009 so we can draw again (a bizarre comparison seeing as our squad is much worse than 2009), or tries to say that there's much of a muchness between third and fifth; that sort of stuff. Elo is pretty well-respected as a measuring system and has even been incorporated into the FIFA rankings.

Elo doesn't predict individual results. What it does do is say that when you play a team 220 points lower at home (Ireland v Luxembourg), you should be winning 80% of the time (or whatever it is). And it can happen that the lower-rated team win too. If those results start exceeding chance, then something's going wrong (and indeed by the time of that Luxembourg result, we had dropped 100 points in Kenny's first ten games, which is pretty stark)

So it's not about saying France are favourites - we know that. It's about showing by how much they're favourites, and even why the comparison with the Portugal draw (even if they were up for the game in Dublin, which they weren't) isn't all that relevant because our chances of drawing with France are 40% lower.

So yeah, we can make it difficult for them even if we lose - that's fine. But when Boomers says "If we had a competent manager I'd be very confident of a draw at least", for example - well then it really helps to put the task ahead of us in perspective. That's the point of Elo.

My mistake, I should have consulted the Elo rankings system before making that statement. :D Does this magical elo take the standard of manager into account? Did you need elo to tell you France are a better team than Portugal?

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

What relevance are games from the 90s or 00s at this stage?

It's showing that we've been hard to beat at home for 40 years. Even under managers like Staunton and Kenny. Probably not something elo takes on board but coming to Dublin is not an easy task for anyone.

[elatedscum]

Looked at some stuff here. I went from the 2004 qualifiers on, cause I feel that World Cup 2002 was the end of a chapter.

1) Teams are ordered by seeding, so for example, we were first seeds for the Euro 2004 group and we were fourth seed for the World Cup 2018 qualifiers.

2) The number after the team is the Elo ranking at the start of the campaign.

3) the results are in brackets, home result first then away result.

Euro 2004:

Ireland 15
Russia 25 (draw, loss)
Switzerland 33 (loss, loss)

World Cup 2006:

France 2 (loss, draw)
Ireland 14
Switzerland 37 (draw, draw)
Israel 40 (draw, draw)

Euro 2008:

Czech Republic 11 (draw, loss)
Germany 6 (draw, loss)
Slovakia 42 (win, draw)
Ireland 35

World Cup 2010

Italy 4 (draw, draw)
Bulgaria 22 (draw, draw)
Ireland 25

Euro 2012

Russia 13 (loss, draw)
Slovakia 48 (draw, draw)
Ireland 31

World Cup 2014

Germany 3 (loss, loss)
Sweden 9 (loss, draw)
Ireland 31
Austria 57 (draw, loss)

Euro 2016

Germany 1 (win, draw)
Ireland 27
Poland 29 (draw, loss)

World Cup 2018

Wales 28 (draw, win)
Austria 42 (draw, win)
Serbia 33 (draw, loss)
Ireland 21

Euro 2020

Switzerland 12 (draw, loss)
Denmark 14 (draw, draw)
Ireland 43

World Cup 2022
Portugal 5 (draw, loss)
Serbia 25 (draw, loss)
Ireland 46

Euro 2024
France 3
Netherlands 4
Ireland 47
Greece 44

Home result against top seeds:
1 win, 5 draws, 3 losses
Away result against top seeds:
1 win, 4 draws, 4 losses

Home result against second seeds:
0 wins, 7 draws, 1 loss
Away result against second seeds
1 win, 4 draws, 3 losses

-

Draw from it what you will.

[elatedscum]

Idah confirmed as ruled out by Wagner. Curious if a replacement will be called up or if Keane was put in there, essentially knowing that Idah was almost certainly ruled out.

[JR89]

Six CFs were named so Keane was likely added because of Idahs injury.

[Trequartista20]

Looking at some of the opinion expressed here and elsewhere I find myself slightly disquieted by the idea being expounded - no more strongly than by Kenny supporters themselves - of our being completely no-hopers and our qualification bid effectively being over before it's even begun.

I've never known so much negativity and such tempered expectations prior to a new qualification campaign.

Even Northern Ireland fans are allowing themselves a certain level of optimism and hope and following the return of Michael O'Neill.

Previously we were told that merely being difficult to beat and achieving the results, even against the better sides, that, prior to Kenny, allowed us to be competitive in qualification groups for so many years wasn't enough, and that we should do all this while placing greater trust in the players to play a more aesthetically pleasing and expansive possession-based game. And to in any way suggest otherwise was disparaging of the abilities of the players.

Well, we've now lost all of that former solidity, results have worsened, and we are now being told by those self-same people, who were quick to criticise Trap, O'Neill and Mick for their alleged dismissal of the ability of the players at their disposal and pragmatic approach, that we shouldn't expect any better because 'we just don't have the players' and dumping Kenny doesn't change this. And all without any apparent hint of self-awareness.

In my view, Michael O'Neill's return as NI manager automatically and immediately makes them a much better side. Probably a better side now, I would suggest, than we are. Because in seeking to extract the maximum possible from the available talent pool, the choice of manager does actually make a difference. A huge difference.

While we shouldn't expect to punch above our weight, we should at least aspire to do so. As it stands, we are arguably underperforming as a nation. And history shows us that you don't necessarily need an abundance of top-level players to be successful in international football.

Under O'Neill, NI topped their Euro 2016 qualifying group as 5th seeds, progressing from the group stage when they got there.

Iceland qualified for the same competition as 5th seeds in group featuring Holland, Czech Republic and Turkey, before getting to the Quarter Finals.

Look at the progress and results achieved by the likes of Finland and North Macedonia in recent years, despite their limited playing resources.

Hungary have achieved some extremely creditable results in competitive matches over the past couple of years. For example:

Hungary 1-1 France
Germany 2-2 Hungary
England 1-1 Hungary
Poland 1-2 Hungary
Hungary 1-0 England
Hungary 1-1 Germany
England 0-4 Hungary
Germany 0-1 England

And this, aside from three or four Bundesliga players, with a squad of players drawn, not from the elite leagues, but rather from the likes of its own domestic league, Slovakia, Belgium, Serie B, MLS, Switzerland, Cyprus and Korea.

Failure shouldn't be meekly accepted as simply inevitable. It never used to be.

Kenny has been afforded a great deal of patience and a huge amount of good will. It is time to repay that faith invested in him. He's had more than sufficient time to rebuild the squad, inculcate his ideas and arrive at an effective and winning formula and I would expect us to at least be very competitive in this coming campaign.

[Eirambler]

Fully agree.

We have a Premier League regular goalkeeper who is achieving well beyond his peers at his age. We have an excellent crop of young centre backs, as well as John Egan to provide experience. Two quality wing backs in Coleman and Doherty. An excellent deep lying midfielder in Josh Cullen, as well as two hard working solid pros in midfield in Molumby and Knight and an emerging talent in Smallbone.

Up front we have one of the biggest emerging talents in the Premier League in Ferguson and an experienced Premier League performer and mercurial talent in Obafemi.

I'm not saying we should be expecting to split France and Holland in the group, but we should be aiming to be consistently competitive here, and be well ahead of the other two teams.

No more excuses, time for results.

[elatedscum]

I've never known so much negativity and such tempered expectations prior to a new qualification campaign.

Even Northern Ireland fans are allowing themselves a certain level of optimism and hope and following the return of Michael O'Neill.

We’ve got a group with probably the two best teams in Europe. How can you not be pessimistic?

If we were the fifth seeds, I’d fancy us to qualify from Northern Ireland’s group:

1. Denmark
2. Finland
3. Slovenia
4. Kazakhstan
5. Niron
6. San Marino

Denmark will win the group and everyone else is extremely beatable. Even Denmark are very much in the second tier of teams in Europe. There’s 8 or 9 elite sides in Europe and Denmark aren’t one.

I think we should come ahead of Greece but I’d fancy Greece to qualify from Northern Ireland’s group too. Maybe I underrate Finland but if you dropped Greece into the group instead of Northern Ireland - my money would be on Greece.

[seanfhear]

We’ve got a group with probably the two best teams in Europe. How can you not be pessimistic?

If we were the fifth seeds, I’d fancy us to qualify from Northern Ireland’s group:

1. Denmark
2. Finland
3. Slovenia
4. Kazakhstan
5. Niron
6. San Marino

Denmark will win the group and everyone else is extremely beatable. Even Denmark are very much in the second tier of teams in Europe. There’s 8 or 9 elite sides in Europe and Denmark aren’t one.

I think we should come ahead of Greece but I’d fancy Greece to qualify from Northern Ireland’s group too. Maybe I underrate Finland but if you dropped Greece into the group instead of Northern Ireland - my money would be on Greece.Michael O'Neill must have kissed a, Lucky Leprechaun's Foot.

[Razors left peg]

I blame Kenny for not getting us a lower seeding spot to get N irons group

[Snapshot]

Looking at some of the opinion expressed here and elsewhere I find myself slightly disquieted by the idea being expounded - no more strongly than by Kenny supporters themselves - of our being completely no-hopers and our qualification bid effectively being over before it's even begun.

I've never known so much negativity and such tempered expectations prior to a new qualification campaign ...


. . . Failure shouldn't be meekly accepted as simply inevitable. It never used to be.

Kenny has been afforded a great deal of patience and a huge amount of good will. It is time to repay that faith invested in him. He's had more than sufficient time to rebuild the squad, inculcate his ideas and arrive at an effective and winning formula and I would expect us to at least be very competitive in this coming campaign.
Brilliant analysis. Thanks for a great read.

[elatedscum]

Fully agree.

We have a Premier League regular goalkeeper who is achieving well beyond his peers at his age. We have an excellent crop of young centre backs, as well as John Egan to provide experience. Two quality wing backs in Coleman and Doherty. An excellent deep lying midfielder in Josh Cullen, as well as two hard working solid pros in midfield in Molumby and Knight and an emerging talent in Smallbone.

Up front we have one of the biggest emerging talents in the Premier League in Ferguson and an experienced Premier League performer and mercurial talent in Obafemi.

I'm not saying we should be expecting to split France and Holland in the group, but we should be aiming to be consistently competitive here, and be well ahead of the other two teams.

No more excuses, time for results.

You’re right but… it pales in significance when compared to France and ze Netherlands.

And if I were a Greece fan, I’d point to Vlachodimos, Tsimikas, Mavropanos, Bakasetas, Pavledis and Limnios

[elatedscum]

Two comments on the above - would we not be better starting 4-3-3 against Latvia? If we struggle to break smaller teams down with 5-3-2 (and we clearly struggle for some reason), would we not try a more attacking system from the start? I don't think I want to watch another game we should win but where for an hour we struggle to make any inroads...

I suppose there’s a value to a degree of continuity and there are players who would benefit from minutes in that system (I’m thinking Evan Ferguson in particular but also guys like O’Dowda, Smallbone etc.). In terms of team selection and formation, you’re balancing what most helps preparation for the France game (rest player x, give minutes to player y, play player z here), what advantages we can gain later in the group (improve at beating weaker sides at home where we’re dominating), and simply getting a win (primarily for the confidence boost and momentum - I can’t think of a worse mood killer than losing to latvia prior to the France game)

4-3-3 is more suited to beating sides who’s primary aim is not to lose, mostly because you often have a centre half who is totally redundant. The last 30 mins against Lithuania was progress on that front when Manning moved in there because he provided incisive creativity with his passes from that position which is almost always lacking.

It certainly doesn’t make any sense to start 4-3-3 and transition to 5-3-2 if it doesn’t work. And I think learning how to transition between two systems in a game has a value to it as well. I think there’s been a fear in changing formation within a game (not entirety unjustified, it is a risk) and doing it successfully would be of benefit to us in the long run.

I don’t feel entirely convinced that I’m definitely right but if I was in the manager’s shoes that’s how I’d approach it.


Then on Kelleher - I think if he puts in such a good performance against Latvia that you'd promote him to number 1 based on it, we have bigger problems than in nets!

Yup. I mean we did concede 2 against Armenia in the last competitive window. If he could turn those goals into saves - maybe he can give us all pause for thought, as unlikely as that is.

In his last start for Liverpool, against Wolves, I thought he was really excellent - and frankly, I struggle to remember his last bad game for club or country. I know he rarely plays but he’s consistently good when he does. Bazunu has largely redeemed himself over the past month - and I think both keepers, on their day, can be game winners for us. So I’d hold fire for now…

[John83]

My mistake, I should have consulted the Elo rankings system before making that statement. :D Does this magical elo take the standard of manager into account? Did you need elo to tell you France are a better team than Portugal?
Man, the bookies must love you.

[Stuttgart88]

I haven't had time to fully cocentrate on this thread, but two things immediately jumped out at me reading the last few pages:

Where is this huge pessimism from "Kenny supporters"? Examples please - of both, the huge pessimism and the justification of the term "Kenny supporter".

And to dismiss elatedscum's post because it references elo rankings is juvenile and disingenuous to the extreme. Hard to believe someone actually appluaded the way BOOM engages with others on this forum.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Man, the bookies must love you.

They did until I permanently closed my account. They miss me now.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

I haven't had time to fully cocentrate on this thread, but two things immediately jumped out at me reading the last few pages:

Where is this huge pessimism from "Kenny supporters"? Examples please - of both, the huge pessimism and the justification of the term "Kenny supporter".

And to dismiss elatedscum's post because it references elo rankings is juvenile and disingenuous to the extreme. Hard to believe someone actually appluaded the way BOOM engages with others on this forum.

Some have given up before a ball has been kicked in this group. Can you remember a group in the last 40 years where that's happened?

And I can look back but I don't think I dismissed any of elatedscum's posts because of elo rankings. I just don't really care about them but each to their own.

[Kingdom]

Lads, on that ELO rankings, France are 3rd. Portugal are 5th. We drew with Portugal at home and nearly beat them away in the World Cup campaign. Ok, we had Anthony Barry at that stage but it was under Kenny's reign. Drawing at home to France will take some luck but it really isn't as outlandish as some of you are making it out.

The premise in almost every single post, is that when something good happens, it's root cause is somebody else apart from Kenny. and those good things, or positives are mitigated.
When something not ideal, undermining, or just bad happens, it is all Kenny's faults, with zero mitigating circumstances.

Even the comparator post from (Skstu?) above which I'd agree with in terms of 23 france, vs 09 France - which is 8 vs 3 in favour of 23 France - you call it close to 50/50 which it is not, without ever considering that 23 Ireland vs 09 Ireland are about 3 vs 8 against 23 Ireland.

If we were to ask Ireland to play core backs-to-the-wall tactics akin to Moscow in 2011 (which was, f'king horrific), to try and eck a point (I can appreciate the merits of a solid defensive, limited effort at attacking tactic, trust me) that would be fine, but irish players by and large who are very adept at that just hoof the ball away, rather than try and retain possession to remove the pressure to relieve fatigue and so on. But those same players (lets call them Duffy's) are not capable of introducing different tactics to suit the occasion, which would mean rotating a large portion of the side to try and take the game to "inferior" opponents. This is not something that Irish fans would accept.

There is the fact, and it is a fact, that Irish players coming through the Irish development system - those players now coming close to making up 50% of our squad now, and will be somewhere in the region of 75% of our squad in 2 years, just are not taught to give the ball away. Possession, recycling possession, transitioning. Hoofing the ball and giving it back to the opposition without trying to retain it (lets be honest, that's what a lot of people expect and accept) is just not part of their mindset - whether they are good enough at senior level to do it is a topic for a different discussion. But if you are trying to gradually change the ethos of a nation again - and that word is very important - it does not happen overnight, unless you get an actual golden generation, and this crop are not - yet - the golden generation we need, but are possibly the golden generation some Irish fans deserve. It takes time, perseverance and luck.
The heyday that a lot of fan hanker for, was a geehair away from not happening as almost butchered two results against Luxembourg in 1987, trying to enforce a style onto players that didnt suit them or their abilities. Patience and luck were the order of the day and the course of Irish football changed - for good or for bad.

the minnows of football are not the same as the minnows of football in our 'golden era'. Their clubs might not be on the radar, but players from all across Europe at senior level have demonstrated greater technical ability in international football than their irish counterparts for a number of years. And not some French dictionary of flicks and movements - just simple basics like receiving with weaker feet and positional awareness. I'm trying to think which game it was last year where Ireland were keeping possession well without making significant progress and Conor Hourihane tried a ridiculous pass that took 2/3 of the team out of the game and we conceded. It may have been Luxembourg. We've witnessed this for at least 4/5 campaigns where we have really struggled - under good managers in your eyes, such as Mon & Mick - to play dominating football, with 'better' (perhaps more established is more accurate) players against Gibralter and Georgia especially.

Am I happy that we are not doing well? No.
Am I a Kenny fanboy? No.
Do I appreciate what he is trying to do? Yes.
Can I accept that he's making mistakes? yes.
Is what he is trying to do, the correct thing to be doing? Absolutely.
Would I accept his sacking, if this campaign wasn't acceptable? Absolutely, so long as someone committed to playing football in the correct manner and utilising the best of our resources that are coming through in the medium term in the best way possible.

But you, and a lot of others like you, are absolute fanatics. And not in a good way - in my very humble opinion. There is no legislating for the fact that none of our established outfield players are PL regulars. There is no legislating for the fact that our established players have been quite poor and in a few cases void of any real on-field responsbility, and of those established players a good few having been plagued by injury. There's always an excuse not to excuse an issue with Kenny.
And there is the perceived undertone that, again, just in my opinion, the real problem here is that we're not at the junket, we're not doing everything we can to try and get that short-term high, the quick-fix, for the event-addict to say they were there. It might be stupidity, but personally I think it's showing actual courage and leadership to try and fix a serious problem at the expense of short-termism.
And that's what makes this forum so bloody difficult to engage with sometimes, and that's coming from someone who spent WAAAAAYYYYYYY too much time on here than was healthy for any adult over too long a period of time.

And what is most upsetting is that with the quality of players coming through, the quality of coaching that schoolboys are getting, having witnessed it and being involved at domestic level, there will be a sustainable squad very soon that will play football that we can enjoy and can be competitive. Kenny, whether he had to or choose to, has started that process by introducing as many of his own 21s group as he did. Chances are he's not going to reap the benefits of that work and someone else will. I just hope that we don't scupper progress by spunking a few million on an Allardyce or a Dyche, because I know it is what a lot of Irish 'fans' would like, but it would be absolutely reckless.



Also, just to say, I'm not trying to 'pick' on you as such - I could have quoted up to a dozen posters. I can't say I admire your standpoint, I absolutely don't and a lot of your posts p'ss me right the f*ck off, but I can appreciate that you are actually engaging on the forum and I'm not, that I could be quite wrong and in the minority, at which point I'll f*ck right back off to the foot.ie wilderness gladly.