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pineapple stu
28/09/2022, 12:09 PM
I think it's been mentioned in other threads, but probably deserves a thread of its own.

Draw is next Sunday at 11am Irish time. We're third seeds.

The pots are -

Pot 1 - Netherlands, Croatia, Spain, Italy (who are the four NL semi-finalists and will be in a 5-team group), Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland
Pot 2 - France, Austria, Czech Republic, England, Wales, Israel, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Scotland, Finland
Pot 3 - Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Albania, Montenegro, Romania, Sweden, Armenia
Pot 4 - Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, North Macedonia
Pot 5 - Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Belarus, Lithuania, Gibraltar, Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, Malta
Pot 6 - Andorra, San Marino, Liechtenstein

Obviously a huge gap in some of those pots - Spain/France/Sweden/Turkey/Slovakia is a possible draw, as is Hungary/Finland/Armenia/Faroe Islands/Gibraltar/San Marino. Slovakia in Pot 5 is definitely one to avoid; I don't know how they've fallen that far. And obviously England/France from Pot 2

Top two qualify, but really we'll have to wait until the draw is made before we set targets.

Games from March to November next year, with NL play-offs in Mar 2024

Edited to correct Friday to Sunday. Strange day for it

<MOD EDIT - added links and fixtures>


Friday, 24th March 2023 France v Netherlands
Gibraltar v Greece

Monday, 27th March 2023 Netherlands v Gibraltar
Republic of Ireland v France

Friday, 16th June 2023 Gibraltar v France
Greece v Republic of Ireland

Monday, 19th June 2023 France v Greece
Republic of Ireland v Gibraltar

Thursday, 7th September 2023 France v Republic of Ireland
Netherlands v Greece

Sunday, 10th September 2023 Greece v Gibraltar
Republic of Ireland v Netherlands

Friday, 13th October 2023 Netherlands v France
Republic of Ireland v Greece

Monday, 16th October 2023 Gibraltar v Republic of Ireland
Greece v Netherlands

Saturday, 18th November 2023 France v Gibraltar
Netherlands v Republic of Ireland

Tuesday, 21st November 2023 Gibraltar v Netherlands
Greece v France


UEFA Euro 2024 (https://www.uefa.com/euro-2024/)
UEFA Euro 2024 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024)
UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying)
UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying - Group B
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying_Group_B)UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying - Play Offs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying_play-offs)
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying_Group_B)

zero
28/09/2022, 12:19 PM
Should we have a seperate thread for the playoff situation? I know others have addressed it but I expect things are partially clearer now with the group stage of the NL over.

edited to add I think the Euro draw is Sunday 9 Oct at 11am.

Fixer82
28/09/2022, 12:34 PM
No matter what group we get I've a feeling we'll somehow make a boll!x of it

culloty82
28/09/2022, 3:33 PM
Still on for the Group of Predictability:

Denmark
Wales
Ireland
Georgia
Gibraltar
Andorra

SkStu
28/09/2022, 4:12 PM
Obviously a huge gap in some of those pots - Spain/France/Sweden/Turkey/Slovakia is a possible draw

Lord god, have mercy on us. Forgive us our sins.

JR89
28/09/2022, 4:49 PM
Still on for the Group of Predictability:

Denmark
Wales
Ireland
Georgia
Gibraltar
Andorra

Give me Italy and France over seeing Denmark, Wales, and Georgia again. Wales and Georgia will also be in League B next campaign so you know we'll get both for the qualifiers and next NL

sidewayspasser
28/09/2022, 5:37 PM
I think a group of 6 would be better than a group of 5 (hopefully two more winnable matches to build momentum). That would however rule out the NL semi-finalists from pot 1. Ideally, I'd like to see a strong pot 1 team (against which the others don't collect points) and one of the weaker pot 2 teams. I'd go for:
Belgium
Finland
Ireland
Faroes
Estonia
Liechtenstein

MylesNotMiley
28/09/2022, 7:35 PM
Will there still be international windows with 3 games for this campaign?

seanfhear
28/09/2022, 7:43 PM
Will there still be international windows with 3 games for this campaign?
I hope not ~ ~ We struggle with two games in a window.

Real ale Madrid
28/09/2022, 7:47 PM
Will there still be international windows with 3 games for this campaign?

No, its 5 series of 2 games each and we could probably do with being in a 5 team group not 6.

Matchday 1 23-25 March 2023
Matchday 2 26-28 March 2023

Matchday 3 16-17 June 2023
Matchday 4 19-20 June 2023

Matchday 5 7-9 September 2023
Matchday 6 10-12 September 2023

Matchday 7 12-14 October 2023
Matchday 8 15-17 October 2023

Matchday 9 16-18 November 2023
Matchday 10 19-21 November 2023

Insidetherock
28/09/2022, 8:39 PM
We're seeded 5th in Pot 3

If we got the 5th seeds from each Pot, the group would be..

Denmark
Wales
Ireland
Luxembourg
Lithuania

��������

CSAD
29/09/2022, 3:49 AM
I think a group of 6 would be better than a group of 5 (hopefully two more winnable matches to build momentum). That would however rule out the NL semi-finalists from pot 1. Ideally, I'd like to see a strong pot 1 team (against which the others don't collect points) and one of the weaker pot 2 teams. I'd go for:
Belgium
Finland
Ireland
Faroes
Estonia
Liechtenstein

Not sure about that given our tendency to bottle it against smaller team, less of them the better as far as I?m concerned!

Insidetherock
29/09/2022, 5:29 PM
Just looking at the Pot 1 seeds.. Croatia mightnt be the worst draw there.. lot of their top players likely to retire post WC I'd say, especially with club teams heading into a heavy schedule of European games in March when the qualifiers start up

CSAD
29/09/2022, 8:10 PM
Just looking at the Pot 1 seeds.. Croatia mightnt be the worst draw there.. lot of their top players likely to retire post WC I'd say, especially with club teams heading into a heavy schedule of European games in March when the qualifiers start up

Possibly true Croatia have a tendency to be very up and down during qualifiers, if I?m being honest all I care about is getting a manageable side from pot 2 as even if Croatia aren?t at their best you?d still expect them to finish no lower than 2nd in qualifying.

geysir
30/09/2022, 1:03 AM
It's who to avoid in pot 2 is most probably the important factor, namely England and France. The rest of them in pot 2 are doable.

JR89
30/09/2022, 7:25 AM
Just looking at the Pot 1 seeds.. Croatia mightnt be the worst draw there.. lot of their top players likely to retire post WC I'd say, especially with club teams heading into a heavy schedule of European games in March when the qualifiers start up

A bonus if drawn against Croatia is you avoid a six team group and being stuck with Andorra, San Marino, or Liechtenstein.

Diggs246
30/09/2022, 10:21 AM
Sorry if already discussed
But is 2nd place an automatic qualification spot or just a play off?

pineapple stu
30/09/2022, 10:24 AM
Auto.

Top two (from ten groups) qualify automatically, as do Germany as hosts (who will presumably be placed into one of the five-team groups for friendly purposes, as happened with Qatar and France before)

Then three spots left for the Nations League play-offs - nominally League A, League B and League C, but never pans out quite like that of course (and as JR89 I think it was said elsewhere, it seems a League D team may have a chance too, which would be Estonia)

Diggs246
30/09/2022, 10:27 AM
So your saying there's a chance!!

seanfhear
30/09/2022, 10:40 AM
So your saying there's a chance!!
Watch out for that “ hope " ~ ~ Tis a dangerous thing ! !

nigel-harps1954
30/09/2022, 3:31 PM
Switzerland, Wales, Faroes, Malta.

Goodnight, thank you very much.

joey B
09/10/2022, 10:40 AM
Draw from hell for us….

passinginterest
09/10/2022, 10:44 AM
Absolute disaster of a draw. Pretty much no chance of top two and a battle for third.

seanfhear
09/10/2022, 10:47 AM
Not that much travelling which is good.

Two good money generators in France and the Netherlands.

CSAD
09/10/2022, 10:56 AM
The only positive I can think is the draw has so unbelievably unlucky that surely we?ve used up all our bad luck in one fell swoop!

Also looking at my rough estimate for each group I would be reality confident we?d at least get a play off as right now based on my prediction we?d be 5th of 8 teams from A & B leagues that would be in the play offs.

Insidetherock
09/10/2022, 10:56 AM
Even worse, there's a good chance a couple of NL C teams could qualify directly, meaning play off spots will be minimises too.. going to have a gander through the groups to see how things stand there

Tough draw.. but other thing is that it could be a group with lots of tight games/draws

NeverFeltBetter
09/10/2022, 10:59 AM
All that talk of building for the Euro 2024 campaign feeling a bit hollow now. And Gibraltar again, Jesus wept I hate that crowd.

CSAD
09/10/2022, 11:03 AM
The best part is people forget for Euro 2020 we drew Germany & Netherlands before the UEFA rules prevented us drawing them.

It?s in incredible that out of possibly 20 groups only 3 would be that bad and yet we drew 2 of them?

BOOMSHAKALAKA
09/10/2022, 11:11 AM
The top 2 are really not much better than our Euro 2020 draw?

Jd2793
09/10/2022, 11:13 AM
The top 2 are really not much better than our Euro 2020 draw?

this is some of your best trolling

Real ale Madrid
09/10/2022, 11:13 AM
The top 2 are really not much better than our Euro 2020 draw?

France and The Netherlands and not much better than Denmark and Switzerland?

MylesNotMiley
09/10/2022, 11:14 AM
When will the fixtures come out?

Jd2793
09/10/2022, 11:15 AM
lads tying themselves up in knots for their own agendas. you are truly deluded if you think denmark and switzerland are as good as france and holland. holland are one of the best teams in the europe under LVG.

BOOMSHAKALAKA
09/10/2022, 11:16 AM
France and The Netherlands and not much better than Denmark and Switzerland?

No. Look at the results from the last euros. Switzerland even knocked out France! The current world rankings put them a few spots above but it's close enough.

passinginterest
09/10/2022, 11:17 AM
On the plus side I suppose, little or no expectations other than to finish third. Anything picked up from the top two will be a bonus and if we do qualify it will be complete vindication for the manager!

CSAD
09/10/2022, 11:24 AM
lads tying themselves up in knots for their own agendas. you are truly deluded if you think denmark and switzerland are as good as france and holland. holland are one of the best teams in the europe under LVG.

But forget if it wasn?t for the rules in regards to hosting we would have got Netherlands and Germany in our 2020 group.

If possible this group is even tougher.

Real ale Madrid
09/10/2022, 11:24 AM
No. Look at the results from the last euros. Switzerland even knocked out France! The current world rankings put them a few spots above but it's close enough.

Yeah ok - i see your point a bit, but Switzerland only beat Turkey over 90 mins at the Euro and Denmark despite having home advantage - struggled before beating Wales and the Czech's in the knockouts. We got 3 points in Qualifiers against SWI and DEN and it would be hard to see us do any better than that. I think NED and FRA are a lot stronger and a lot deeper squad wise making picking up points against them very difficult - I can see both having deep runs at the world cup as well, so both could be top 5 in the FIFA rankings come March.

Real ale Madrid
09/10/2022, 11:25 AM
When will the fixtures come out?

Later today apparently

CSAD
09/10/2022, 11:26 AM
On the plus side I suppose, little or no expectations other than to finish third. Anything picked up from the top two will be a bonus and if we do qualify it will be complete vindication for the manager!

Where we finish is irrelevant unless we luck out and finish top 2. Hopefully the Dutch do a 2016 and completely bottle it although knowing Kenny?s luck that won?t happen 😂

Eirambler
09/10/2022, 11:32 AM
They only positive I can take from it is that I genuinely didn't fancy us to qualify under Kenny regardless of who we were drawn against.

So maybe better to get this group out of the way now while we're no-hopers anyway and then hopefully have some better luck at some point in the future when we have a better manager in charge who might actually be able to take advantage of it.

As for the group itself - if you drew France, Netherlands and Greece in a Euros finals tournament you'd say it was an unlucky draw - never mind getting them in just the qualifiers.

CSAD
09/10/2022, 11:33 AM
To bring one element of positivity to the discussion is traditionally Stephen Kenny Irish sides have gone well against similar or better sides. Portugal Serbia for example in the last campaign.

You got the Dutch and French who are better

The Greeks who would be similar level to us (we probably would be abit better) and Gibraltar who are so bad that even a Kenny side couldn?t screw up against.

I don?t think we?ll get top 2 obviously but I don?t think we?ll go as bad as some think, it largely comes down to how we start, don?t start with 0 points from 2 or 3 games for a change and maybe we?ll at least give it a go even if it almost certainly end up in us finish 3rd or 4th.

WexCar.
09/10/2022, 11:34 AM
It doesn't matter how Denmark, Switzerland, France & Netherlands compare with each other, truth us we are nowhere near Netherlands and France.

We will be lucky to get 1pt from those 4 games, our best chance is to catch them in the first couple of games with world cup hangover or in the last couple of games when they are already qualified and send out 2nd string teams, but even then Greece will be thinking the same thing.

IMO success in this group will be a comfortable 6pts from GIB, at least 4pts from Greece and being able to put it up to NL & FR and keep it close even though I'm not confident of getting points from either. I think that will show progress and give confidence in the playoffs.

Looking at the other groups I am confident we will have a playoff spot as at least 7 of the groups should be predictable enough with who finishes top 2.

Insidetherock
09/10/2022, 11:55 AM
Time for a play off simulation:

Group A: Best case Spain and Scotland qualify, Norway move to 7th in B standings. Or Spain and Norway qualify, Scotland remain in play off final. Worst case, Georgia qualify and both Scotland and Norway remain above us in Play off places.

Prediction: Spain/Norway, Scotland go to B play off finals

Group B: Best case, we qualify directly. next best, Scotland qualify from group A, and we move up to 9th in play off standings.

Prediction: Netherlands/France qualify, but as Norway qualified in A, we move up to 9th in play off standings

Group C: Best case, Italy/England qualify, Ukraine finish 3rd. Worst case, North Macedonia qualify ahead of Italy/England, pushing them into a play off spot in Path A

Prediction: Italy/England qualify. We stay in 9th in play off standings

Group D: This is the first of the potential outcomes that might hurt us. I think Wales may begin to go backwards after the World Cup, with retirements imminent. Best case scenario would be Croatia and Wales qualifying, but I think Turkey will finish ahead of Wales here.

Prediction: Croatia/Turkey qualify, Wales take a place in the Path A play offs

Group E: Another Group that might have an impact. Best case would be Poland and Czechia qualifying, keeping extra places in the Path A play off open.. but Albania might be a kicker. Because they finished below us in NL Path B, if they could get past one of the two A teams, they'd reduce the number of play off spots available. But I think the two A teams will prevail

Prediction: Poland and Czechia to qualify

Group F: More hassle for us. Belgium will qualify for the group, but Austria will likely fight Sweden for 2nd place. We really need the Austrians to do us a favour here, but going to go with the worst case scenario and say Sweden will finish second.

Prediction: Belgium/Sweden qualify, Austria got to NL Path A play off

Group G: The Balkans War group.. there'll be plenty niggle in a lot of these games.. but I think Hungary and Serbia will come out of the group as direct qualifiers in the end. This means we then move up to 8th in the play off standings. Things will start to get bad for us if Serbia don't get out of this group

Prediction: Hungary/Serbia, Ireland move to 8th in play off standings

Group H: This could help us as Denmark are likely to qualify, but the second qualifier is likely to be one of two teams higher than us in the play off standings.. meaning if/when they qualify, we'll move up a place in the rankings. Worst case scenario.. is if Kazakhstan or Norn Ireland have a banger of a campaign and displace Finland or Slovenia for the second direct spot in qualifying..

Prediction: Denmark/Finland, we move up to 7th in the play off standings in Group B

Group I: Another really iffy group for us. Switzerland will qualify, but Romania or even Kosovo could beat Isreal to the 2nd spot. We will really need to be cheering on the Isrealis in this one. But for the purposes of this, I am going to give this to Romania

Prediction: Switzerland/Romania

Group J: Another good group for us, with the second qualifying spot likely to fall between two teams higher in the rankings than us, thus freeing up a spot ahead of us. But who knows with Iceland these days

Prediction: Portugal/Bosnia, moving Ireland up to 6th in the play off rankings

So, if/when that all shakes out, where do I think we'll stand?

Direct qualifiers:

Spain Norway Netherlands France England Italy Croatia Turkey Poland Czechia Belgium Sweden Hungary Serbia Denmark Finland Switzerland Romania Portugal Bosnia

Nations League Path A play offs:

Austria, Wales, Estonia*


Nations League Path B play off:

Israel, Scotland, Ukraine, Iceland


Path B team that moves to complete Path A

Slovenia


Ireland would lose out in the play offs.. by one spot

We're going to struggle I think..

brine3
09/10/2022, 12:04 PM
lads tying themselves up in knots for their own agendas. you are truly deluded if you think denmark and switzerland are as good as france and holland. holland are one of the best teams in the europe under LVG.

LVG won't be in charge though... we'll see

Not that he did much better against Ireland previously :eat:

Eirambler
09/10/2022, 12:05 PM
Yes, and again the playoffs are a completely self inflicted mess for us. If we had taken even just one more point off either Ukraine or Scotland we'd be a spot higher up the Nations League rankings and would take the playoff spot Slovenia have gained in the simulation above.

I agree Sweden and Romania will likely qualify automatically ahead of Austria and Israel. That means we need every group to go our way to get a playoff place - it's highly unlikely we will be that fortunate, there is always a surprise qualifier somewhere and there are three or four more possibilities that could go against us in this draw.

CSAD
09/10/2022, 12:12 PM
Time for a play off simulation:

Group A: Best case Spain and Scotland qualify, Norway move to 7th in B standings. Or Spain and Norway qualify, Scotland remain in play off final. Worst case, Georgia qualify and both Scotland and Norway remain above us in Play off places.

Prediction: Spain/Norway, Scotland go to B play off finals

Group B: Best case, we qualify directly. next best, Scotland qualify from group A, and we move up to 9th in play off standings.

Prediction: Netherlands/France qualify, but as Norway qualified in A, we move up to 9th in play off standings

Group C: Best case, Italy/England qualify, Ukraine finish 3rd. Worst case, North Macedonia qualify ahead of Italy/England, pushing them into a play off spot in Path A

Prediction: Italy/England qualify. We stay in 9th in play off standings

Group D: This is the first of the potential outcomes that might hurt us. I think Wales may begin to go backwards after the World Cup, with retirements imminent. Best case scenario would be Croatia and Wales qualifying, but I think Turkey will finish ahead of Wales here.

Prediction: Croatia/Turkey qualify, Wales take a place in the Path A play offs

Group E: Another Group that might have an impact. Best case would be Poland and Czechia qualifying, keeping extra places in the Path A play off open.. but Albania might be a kicker. Because they finished below us in NL Path B, if they could get past one of the two A teams, they'd reduce the number of play off spots available. But I think the two A teams will prevail

Prediction: Poland and Czechia to qualify

Group F: More hassle for us. Belgium will qualify for the group, but Austria will likely fight Sweden for 2nd place. We really need the Austrians to do us a favour here, but going to go with the worst case scenario and say Sweden will finish second.

Prediction: Belgium/Sweden qualify, Austria got to NL Path A play off

Group G: The Balkans War group.. there'll be plenty niggle in a lot of these games.. but I think Hungary and Serbia will come out of the group as direct qualifiers in the end. This means we then move up to 8th in the play off standings. Things will start to get bad for us if Serbia don't get out of this group

Prediction: Hungary/Serbia, Ireland move to 8th in play off standings

Group H: This could help us as Denmark are likely to qualify, but the second qualifier is likely to be one of two teams higher than us in the play off standings.. meaning if/when they qualify, we'll move up a place in the rankings. Worst case scenario.. is if Kazakhstan or Norn Ireland have a banger of a campaign and displace Finland or Slovenia for the second direct spot in qualifying..

Prediction: Denmark/Finland, we move up to 7th in the play off standings in Group B

Group I: Another really iffy group for us. Switzerland will qualify, but Romania or even Kosovo could beat Isreal to the 2nd spot. We will really need to be cheering on the Isrealis in this one. But for the purposes of this, I am going to give this to Romania

Prediction: Switzerland/Romania

Group J: Another good group for us, with the second qualifying spot likely to fall between two teams higher in the rankings than us, thus freeing up a spot ahead of us. But who knows with Iceland these days

Prediction: Portugal/Bosnia, moving Ireland up to 6th in the play off rankings

So, if/when that all shakes out, where do I think we'll stand?

Direct qualifiers:

Spain Norway Netherlands France England Italy Croatia Turkey Poland Czechia Belgium Sweden Hungary Serbia Denmark Finland Switzerland Romania Portugal Bosnia

Nations League Path A play offs:

Austria, Wales, Estonia*


Nations League Path B play off:

Israel, Scotland, Ukraine, Iceland


Path B team that moves to complete Path A

Slovenia


Ireland would lose out in the play offs.. by one spot

We're going to struggle I think..

How would Estonia be the the play off? There is not automatic spot for league D.

Insidetherock
09/10/2022, 12:13 PM
Yes, and again the playoffs are a completely self inflicted mess for us. If we had taken even just one more point off either Ukraine or Scotland we'd be a spot higher up the Nations League rankings and would take the playoff spot Slovenia have gained in the simulation above.

I agree Sweden and Romania will likely qualify automatically ahead of Austria and Israel. That means we need every group to go our way to get a playoff place - it's highly unlikely we will be that fortunate, there is always a surprise qualifier somewhere and there are three or four more possibilities that could go against us in this draw.

It does absolutely show the importance of the Nations League that people still talk about as "meaningless friendlies"

CSAD
09/10/2022, 12:13 PM
Yes, and again the playoffs are a completely self inflicted mess for us. If we had taken even just one more point off either Ukraine or Scotland we'd be a spot higher up the Nations League rankings and would take the playoff spot Slovenia have gained in the simulation above.

I agree Sweden and Romania will likely qualify automatically ahead of Austria and Israel. That means we need every group to go our way to get a playoff place - it's highly unlikely we will be that fortunate, there is always a surprise qualifier somewhere and there are three or four more possibilities that could go against us in this draw.

The Sweden and Romania who were relegated to league C?

Feel a lot of these teams are being judged on reputation rather than recent form.

Real ale Madrid
09/10/2022, 12:24 PM
Time for a play off simulation:

Group A: Best case Spain and Scotland qualify, Norway move to 7th in B standings. Or Spain and Norway qualify, Scotland remain in play off final. Worst case, Georgia qualify and both Scotland and Norway remain above us in Play off places.

Prediction: Spain/Norway, Scotland go to B play off finals

Group B: Best case, we qualify directly. next best, Scotland qualify from group A, and we move up to 9th in play off standings.

Prediction: Netherlands/France qualify, but as Norway qualified in A, we move up to 9th in play off standings

Group C: Best case, Italy/England qualify, Ukraine finish 3rd. Worst case, North Macedonia qualify ahead of Italy/England, pushing them into a play off spot in Path A

Prediction: Italy/England qualify. We stay in 9th in play off standings

Group D: This is the first of the potential outcomes that might hurt us. I think Wales may begin to go backwards after the World Cup, with retirements imminent. Best case scenario would be Croatia and Wales qualifying, but I think Turkey will finish ahead of Wales here.

Prediction: Croatia/Turkey qualify, Wales take a place in the Path A play offs

Group E: Another Group that might have an impact. Best case would be Poland and Czechia qualifying, keeping extra places in the Path A play off open.. but Albania might be a kicker. Because they finished below us in NL Path B, if they could get past one of the two A teams, they'd reduce the number of play off spots available. But I think the two A teams will prevail

Prediction: Poland and Czechia to qualify

Group F: More hassle for us. Belgium will qualify for the group, but Austria will likely fight Sweden for 2nd place. We really need the Austrians to do us a favour here, but going to go with the worst case scenario and say Sweden will finish second.

Prediction: Belgium/Sweden qualify, Austria got to NL Path A play off

Group G: The Balkans War group.. there'll be plenty niggle in a lot of these games.. but I think Hungary and Serbia will come out of the group as direct qualifiers in the end. This means we then move up to 8th in the play off standings. Things will start to get bad for us if Serbia don't get out of this group

Prediction: Hungary/Serbia, Ireland move to 8th in play off standings

Group H: This could help us as Denmark are likely to qualify, but the second qualifier is likely to be one of two teams higher than us in the play off standings.. meaning if/when they qualify, we'll move up a place in the rankings. Worst case scenario.. is if Kazakhstan or Norn Ireland have a banger of a campaign and displace Finland or Slovenia for the second direct spot in qualifying..

Prediction: Denmark/Finland, we move up to 7th in the play off standings in Group B

Group I: Another really iffy group for us. Switzerland will qualify, but Romania or even Kosovo could beat Isreal to the 2nd spot. We will really need to be cheering on the Isrealis in this one. But for the purposes of this, I am going to give this to Romania

Prediction: Switzerland/Romania

Group J: Another good group for us, with the second qualifying spot likely to fall between two teams higher in the rankings than us, thus freeing up a spot ahead of us. But who knows with Iceland these days

Prediction: Portugal/Bosnia, moving Ireland up to 6th in the play off rankings

So, if/when that all shakes out, where do I think we'll stand?

Direct qualifiers:

Spain Norway Netherlands France England Italy Croatia Turkey Poland Czechia Belgium Sweden Hungary Serbia Denmark Finland Switzerland Romania Portugal Bosnia

Nations League Path A play offs:

Austria, Wales, Estonia*


Nations League Path B play off:

Israel, Scotland, Ukraine, Iceland


Path B team that moves to complete Path A

Slovenia


Ireland would lose out in the play offs.. by one spot

We're going to struggle I think..

Cracking post. I don't think Turkey are great at the moment but whatever way you look at it - its a lot tighter than I thought it would have been so it makes the whole draw doubly disappointing from an Irish perspective.

CSAD
09/10/2022, 12:25 PM
How would Estonia be the the play off? There is not automatic spot for league D.

Just found out the answer

Not to say it as an excuse for Ireland failing but things like this make a mockery of the whole qualification system, beating a bunch of part timers gets you a play off automatically.

League C I could tolerate but League D especially now should have 0 bearing on qualification for a major tournament.