UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying Group B

[SkStu]

Pretty sure it was for a Greek outfield player entering the box. There was nothing wrong with what the keeper did, as you mentioned.

[geysir]

Actually another good reason to hope Holland finish ahead of Greece alright.

The League A playoff last time was Iceland (the only League A side that didn't qualify on merit), Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. The League B playoff was us, the North, Slovakia and Bosnia. Probably slightly stronger
Hungary > Slovakia , as evident in their their games against France and Germany in the Finals.

[TonyD]

Pretty sure it was for a Greek outfield player entering the box. There was nothing wrong with what the keeper did, as you mentioned.

Ah, that explains it. Cheers.

[Diggs246]

Are we still 50/50 for the play off guys?

[pineapple stu]

Will know more after tonight - though it's skewed now in that none of the Nations League finalists (Holland, Spain, Croatia and Italy) are qualifying by rights as it stands, in part because they have games in hand, having not played this window because of the Nations League finals.

[Stuttgart88]

i think 5 A teams are outside the top 2 at the moment. We can afford no more than 2 remaining outside the top 2. Is that right? ie, we need at least 2 A playoff spots to remain open aswe are the 6th ranked B team.

[pineapple stu]

There's 6 teams outside the top two - Holland, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Denmark, and Wales.

Right now, there's seven teams below us qualifying by rights we're fifth in line for a playoff race - Denmark, Wales, Estonia, Slovenia, and then us. But within that, Estonia can only reach the A League playoff ahead of us (not the B or C League). So working out how many A League teams we can afford to not qualify gets tricky I think!

The idea that we can only have a max of two teams ranked below us qualifying seems to be holding solid still (as in the example above - seven teams below us currently qualifying, and we're fifth in line...7-5 = 2), so that may be the safer way to consider it.

[pineapple stu]

Scotland v Georgia is going to be finished about 11:30pm after a huge rain delay, but we can still look at the playoff standings as they stand; that game is between the top two, who'll both still be in the qualifying spot at the end of tonight whatever the result.

The current playoffs are -
League A
Spain
Croatia
Italy
Holland

League B
Israel
Bosnia
Iceland
Norway

League C
Luxembourg
Azerbaijan
Kosovo
Bulgaria

There's currently seven League A teams not qualifying by rights - Poland lost 3-2 to Moldova tonight, meaning Albania are second instead - and eight sides ranked below us in the top two in their groups (Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Armenia, Albania, Kazakhstan, Romania and Slovakia). The League B playoffs now go down to Norway - next is Slovenia and then us - but bridging that gap isn't going to be easy, especially as part of the reason so few League A teams are in the top two as it stands is because they have games in hand, having played the Nations League this window. So we have to assume Denmark, Poland, Wales and Estonia are also ahead of us in the race as well as Slovenia. We're now sixth in line, and we still need to reduce the number of teams qualifying but ranked below us to 2. I think in order of likelihood, you're looking at -

Georgia are being outplayed by Scotland at the moment; they won't stay in second ahead of Spain and Norway. They still have to play Spain twice.
Armenia are a surprise, having beaten Wales and Latvia this window, but Croatia have a game in hand and you'd expect them to come top two instead, which suits us.
Albania are in second courtesy of Poland throwing away a 2-0 half-time lead in Moldova tonight to lose 3-2. That's a bad result for us, but Albania have at least already lost to Poland and are yet to play the Czechs (who also beat Poland), so there's time for Poland to recover yet.
Kazakhstan won in Belfast after some shocking defending from about 5/6 Nordy players - and with Denmark and Slovenia drawing, they now have a two-point gap to third. I think they'll fade away, but beating Denmark at home (again from 2-0 down) was a serious result and they need to be watched. They play group leaders Finland next.
Greece we know about - probably won't finish ahead of Holland, but they seem better than we'd thought and Holland seem weaker than we'd thought, so you never know.
Romania are another side who came from 2-0 down, this time scoring in the 89th and 90th minute in Switzerland to earn a draw. It keeps them a point ahead of Israel, who they haven't played yet. That's a huge game for us in September.
Turkey are a problem - they did beat Wales (who we need to qualify instead) and are now five points clear of them at the half-way point. Realistically Turkey have to be short odds to be one of the two teams we can allow to qualify.
Slovakia scraped past Liechtenstein tonight - but Bosnia, who we want to qualify, lost 2-0 at home to Luxembourg. That's a seven point gap after four games. Next up is Bosnia v Liechtenstein and Slovakia v Portugal, which you'd hope would help, but this isn't looking good at all.

So basically Turkey and Slovakia are looking very good to qualify, which means we can't have any other side ranked below us qualify if we want a playoff spot. But between Romania, Greece and Kazakhstan, the odds probably are one of them will do us out of the Euros.

So not looking good at the moment by my calculations unfortunately.

[Insidetherock]

Looking at the tables, and still expecting the Group A sides to come good ie Holland, Denmark etc..

In my opinion, our play off hopes rest squarely with Isreal.. they have to get ahead of Romania, because Turkey are going to get out of Wales group.. and as said above, Slovakia look like they'll come out of the group with Bosnia/Iceland.. Frankly even if they don't, Luxembourg will

So it all hinges in my opinion on Isreal getting past Romania

[tetsujin1979]

The Dutch squad to face Greece and Ireland was announced earlier
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[pineapple stu]

We might have a bit of a chance in the playoff stakes again actually.

Turkey and Slovakia are the two who seem to be home and hosed. Slovakia only lost 1-0 to Portugal this round, but Bosnia (who we want to see qualify instead) scraped past Liechtenstein 2-1 at home and don't look like they have it in them to qualify. Turkey needed a late equaliser to draw at home to Armenia, but Wales - who we want to qualify instead, and who didn't play - are six points adrift with four games to go.

We can't allow anyone else who finished lower in the Nations League to qualify automatically. There were six others at the last update.

The good news is four of those have dropped out of the top two. Georgia lost 7-1 to Spain, Kazakhstan lost at home to Finland, Greece lost to Holland, and Armenia drew in Turkey, allowing Croatia to pass them.

There's now just two teams we need to drop out of the top two - Albania and Romania. Albania had a good draw away to the Czechs and stay ahead of Poland, and host them tomorrow. Huge game there (as mentioned elsewhere). And Romania held on for a 1-1 draw against Israel tonight, which keeps them in second but they're maybe wobbling a little. Three draws in a row now; Romania v Kosovo and Israel v Belarus (who drew against Andorra tonight) midweek. Had Romania won it'd have been close to all over for us

If those come off, then it would leave the League B draw as Bosnia, Iceland, Norway and Slovenia. League A would be Italy, Wales, Estonia and Ireland. I think as the last team to be selected from League B, we would form part of the League A playoffs (obviously UEFA want that to be as weak as possible to help any fallen big sides like Italy)

Italy had another Macedonia tonight, but host Ukraine in midweek; they're three points behind with a match in hand. Ukraine are a League B side so if they end third in the group, we'd be in the League A playoffs with Wales, Estonia and Slovenia. That could be worse.

Big games this week then I think are Albania v Poland on Sunday, and Romania v Kosovo/Israel v Belarus on Tuesday. Results for the North in Kazakhstan and Croatia in Armenia would be welcome. We also don't want Greece to come ahead of Holland, so a defeat for us against the Dutch would actually not be a bad result, with Greece facing Gibraltar the same day.

[SkStu]

We might have a bit of a chance in the playoff stakes again actually.

Turkey and Slovakia are the two who seem to be home and hosed. Slovakia only lost 1-0 to Portugal this round, but Bosnia (who we want to see qualify instead) scraped past Liechtenstein 2-1 at home and don't look like they have it in them to qualify. Turkey needed a late equaliser to draw at home to Armenia, but Wales - who we want to qualify instead, and who didn't play - are six points adrift with four games to go.

We can't allow anyone else who finished lower in the Nations League to qualify automatically. There were six others at the last update.

The good news is four of those have dropped out of the top two. Georgia lost 7-1 to Spain, Kazakhstan lost at home to Finland, Greece lost to Holland, and Armenia drew in Turkey, allowing Croatia to pass them.

There's now just two teams we need to drop out of the top two - Albania and Romania. Albania had a good draw away to the Czechs and stay ahead of Poland, and host them tomorrow. Huge game there (as mentioned elsewhere). And Romania held on for a 1-1 draw against Israel tonight, which keeps them in second but they're maybe wobbling a little. Three draws in a row now; Romania v Kosovo and Israel v Belarus (who drew against Andorra tonight) midweek.

If those come off, then it would leave the League B draw as Bosnia, Iceland, Norway and Slovenia. League A would be Italy, Wales, Estonia and Ireland. I think as the last team to be selected from League B, we would form part of the League A playoffs (obviously UEFA want that to be as weak as possible to help any fallen big sides like Italy)

Italy had another Macedonia tonight, but host Ukraine in midweek; they're three points behind with a match in hand. Ukraine are a League B side so if they end third in the group, we'd be in the League A playoffs with Wales, Estonia and Slovenia. That could be worse.

Big games this week then I think are Albania v Poland on Sunday, and Romania v Kosovo/Israel v Belarus on Tuesday. Results for the North in Kazakhstan and Croatia in Armenia would be welcome. We also don't want Greece to come ahead of Holland, so a defeat for us against the Dutch would actually not be a bad result, with Greece facing Gibraltar the same day.

Kenny been playing 4d chess all this time. :D

[Insidetherock]

Been saying all along, our chances hinge on Isreal, because no more than two who finished below us, can qualify automatically or we're out

Slovakia and Turkey look good.. because I can't see Wales getting back into it

Of course, if Italy fall asunder, we're screwed anyway

It's potentially going to be bonkers, that we could finish 4th in the group.. and still end up in an eminently winnable play off with Wales, Estonia and Slovenia..

The importance of the Nations League is going to have to be highlighted even more in the future.. the loss away to Armenia cost us a place higher than Slovenia and could be the difference between a play off or not

Finish 2nd in the NL are you're as good as certain you'll always get a play off spot

[pineapple stu]

Kenny been playing 4d chess all this time. :D
And he knew not to do too well in the Nations League too, so we could get the easier League A playoff!

A disguised genius. We could win the whole Euros yet!

[seanfhear]

And he knew not to do too well in the Nations League too, so we could get the easier League A playoff!

A disguised genius. We could win the whole Euros yet!
Pretty much guaranteed ! ! !

[pineapple stu]

Albania 2-0 Poland is a disaster of a result for us tonight. Albania are now four points clear of Poland with three games to go, and have to play the Faroes at home, Moldova away, and the Czechs at home. So they can afford to lose to the Czechs in October if they win both their November games, and if we assume Bosnia and Wales aren't getting top two, that's our playoff chances gone I think.

[Bungle]

We don't deserve a playoff. I'm losing interest in what others do.

A joke of a system if we stumble into a playoff after potentially losing six games and maybe just beating Gibraltar home and away in eight games. Yeah a very tough group, but UEFA need to address that.

I recall very good Irish teams with top talent being robbed out of playing in the biggest competitions through genuine bad luck or dodgy refereeing at a time when only a few got through.

I bear no ill feeling towards Kenny, but he has to go and we can make a plan to have a go at qualifying for WC 2026 but more likely build a group to ensure we get to Euro 2028. We have some very good talent. A lot of it will fall by the wayside for various reasons, but enough will come through to make us a decent team in the coming years. Carsley seems to be the most likely but I'm sure there's a few very credible options out there across Europe.

Koeman was a magnificent player but is a mediocre manager. Still, the football knowledge in that man and the respect I'm sure he has from the Dutch team for who he is. Those Irish lads may like Kenny as a man, but they must doubt his credibility. You could see after a good first half, he let the game get beyond him. He is a good man out of his depth, but who is getting backed in a way no others would. Time to go and give us a fighting chance and build momentum with a young team in the coming years.

[Stuttgart88]

My brain aches trying to keep on top of this.

We could conceivably get one of 8 playoff spots: One of 4 path B playoff spots if we’re one of the best NL B teams not to qualify and any A playoff spot made free by all the A teams qualifying.

Right now 3 A teams are outside top 2 in normal qualifying so will need a path A playoff spot, so right now only 1 is “spare”.

Right now the NL B teams that are not qualifying based on current group position are Israel (3rd), Bosnia (4th), Finland (3rd) , Iceland (5th), Norway 3rd), Ireland (4th), Montenegro (3rd), Sweden (3rd), Armenia (3rd). These are all looking for a B play off spot.

Teams ranked below us in NL who are occupying an automatic spot are: Albania (looking good) and Romania (might be overhauled by Israel).

So right now there are 5 A and B playoff spots available (1 A and 4 Bs) and we are 6th in line.

What might change?
Group A – nothing can happen that is to our advantage
Group B – nothing can happen that is to our advantage?
Group C – Italy overtaking Ukraine makes an extra A spot available but reduces a B spot
Group D – We could really do with both Wales and Croatia qualifying (unlikely), otherwise an A playoff spot will be unavailable for us; if both qualify we are higher ranked than Turkey and Armenia, so that’s good
Group E - Hard to see any change - one of Czech Rep and Poland will now need an A play off spot
Group F - We need to hope Sweden don’t improve on current 3rd place. They play Austria (2nd) at home tomorrow!
Group G – We need to hope Montenegro don’t improve from current 3rd. With away matches in Serbia and Hungary this is unlikely
Group H – Nothing can happen here that is to our advantage. Whichever team is 3rd will take a playoff spot away from us.
Group I – Israel overtaking Romania into second will free up a B playoff spot for us

So as things stand, Israel leapfrogging Romania is about the only thing that can get us a playoff - probably a A playoff? – and Sweden remain a risk.

[pineapple stu]

You're missing Estonia there - the League D winners get first dibs on a League A playoff spot in the event that fewer than four League A sides reach the playoffs.

So it means one more team ahead of us than in your calculations.

We need two from Turkey, Slovakia, Albania and Romania to be replaced by (specifically) Wales, Bosnia, Poland and Israel.

[Stuttgart88]

You're missing Estonia there - the League D winners get first dibs on a League A playoff spot in the event that fewer than four League A sides reach the playoffs.

So it means one more team ahead of us than in your calculations.

We need two from Turkey, Slovakia, Albania and Romania to be replaced by (specifically) Wales, Bosnia, Poland and Israel.

Ah, I was wondering where Estonia was coming from in the earlier posts. Thx.

[tetsujin1979]

We_Global on twitter is really good for this, and currently projects that we will miss out
1701242766305497581

[pineapple stu]

We don't deserve a playoff. I'm losing interest in what others do.

A joke of a system if we stumble into a playoff after potentially losing six games and maybe just beating Gibraltar home and away in eight games. Yeah a very tough group, but UEFA need to address that.
Without wanting to take away from this (which I do agree with), Bosnia losing in Iceland tonight is another result we could have done without. Wales won at least - if they can beat Croatia next month we may have a chance. But that's what we've come to

[irishfan86]

If we make it to a playoff, I'll obviously support the team and hope we get in. But yeah I can't say I'm a huge fan of this system or that path to qualification.

[texidub]

Same here. I'll take anything Ireland can get, but qualification for the Euros has been really devalued by this nations league playoff stuff UEFA have brought in. Almost harder NOT to qualify for the tournament these days (which really puts our desperate results into perspective). You'd always want Ireland there, but due to greed and TV money, the tournament itself has been devalued from the days of the top 8 sides in Europe battling it out.

[geysir]

Had Russia been involved in the league, I think Ireland would have been ranked higher than Slovenia.

[geysir]

If we make it to a playoff, I'll obviously support the team and hope we get in. But yeah I can't say I'm a huge fan of this system or that path to qualification.

It's not that much different to euro 2016, except for 3rd place play offs we have nations league play offs.
Not many criticised that one when we finished third in the qual group and went the play off route and also finished 3rd in the Euro final group and went to the knockouts, minnows take what crumbs fall their way.
Of the 4 teams who qualified via the 2020 playoffs, Hungary did well and Slovakia did decent.
I'm a big fan of the Nations League format, not just for replacing deadbeat friendlies, but it provides good competitive games where you can test your squad and gain rewards for good results.

[pineapple stu]

Bit of a topsy-turvy second half of the window - culminating in the last game, Romania v Kosovo, finishing an hour late after Kosovo walked off the pitch early on in protest at "Kosovo is Serbia" banners from the home fans. A key match for us too. Romania were playing against ten men for 50 minutes, missed a penalty, and finally scored twice in the last five minutes. So they remain unconvincing...

But at the moment the play-offs would be -

League A
Poland
Wales
Estonia
Iceland *

League B
Israel
Bosnia
Finland *
Ukraine *

League C
Georgia
Greece
Kazakhstan
Luxembourg

* - I'm not actually sure if the League A play-off gets filled by the lowest qualifying League B team (as last time) or if there's a draw for the place, excluding the League B group winners.

Anyways, bottom line is there's still four teams placed below us in the Nations League who are qualifying, and we can't have that be more than two.

Slovakia beat Liechtenstein 3-0 yesterday, and Bosnia lost 1-0 to Iceland. Disaster there. Bosnia are now seven points behind Slovakia with four games to go, and really not looking at all capable of bridging that. (As an aside, Luxembourg could overtake Slovakia in second with the right results next month, including a home win against Slovakia - that would have them in second despite losing 15-0 across two games against Portugal. They've only conceded one goal in their other four games...)
Wales had a 2-0 win in Latvia yesterday and are just three points behind Turkey with three games to go, and still have to play Turkey at home. Both sides have to play Croatia (Wales at home, Turkey away) and a lesser light (Turkey H v Latvia, Wales A v Armenia). But Wales' form has been poor lately and it's hard to see them doing the business.
Albania beat Poland 2-0, which was fairly unexpected. They're now four points ahead of Poland with three games to go. Wins against the Faroes at home and Moldova away and they'll qualify even if they lose to the Czechs at home next month. Poland for their part have the same run-in, except it's Moldova at home and the Faroes away. The next set of games is Albania v Czech Republic and Faroes v Poland - two away wins there and Albania could feel a bit of pressure; I can't imagine they're used to being in their current position.
And then Romania, who still look encouragingly flaky. They're a point ahead of Israel with four games to go, and have to travel to Israel. They've a similar run in, including Switzerland at home each. October is Israel v Switzerland, Kosovo v Israel, Belarus v Romania and Romania v Andorra. So expect Romania to be still in second going into November, but a gain in Kosovo v Israel and Belarus v Romania is quite possible.

So Bosnia we can forget about. Wales not looking great. Albania could yet bottle it. And Romania's form is unconvincing and our best bet. But we need two of those four to go our way to sneak into the playoffs. Maybe a 20% chance at best?

Kind of sad if we can't even reach the play-offs for a 24-team Euros now...

[geysir]

Israel usually do manage to 'scotch' qualification from a good position in a group.

Afaiu, the 4 team league B play off path is not decided on ranking should there be more than 4 league B teams who qualify for the play offs.

If there are more than 4 teams in League B who qualify for the playoffs then there will be a draw to decide the 4 teams who enter league B play off path.

The team(s) who miss(ed) out in the draw will go into the league A playoff path.

As it stands now, realistically Poland & Wales from League A, joined by Estonia and the league B team who missed out on the draw for the league B path.

I'm open to correction of course.

[samhaydenjr]

Israel usually do manage to 'scotch' qualification from a good position in a group.

Afaiu, the 4 team league B play off path is not decided on ranking should there be more than 4 league B teams who qualify for the play offs.

If there are more than 4 teams in League B who qualify for the playoffs then there will be a draw to decide the 4 teams who enter league B play off path.

The team(s) who miss(ed) out in the draw will go into the league A playoff path.

As it stands now, realistically Poland & Wales from League A, joined by Estonia and the league B team who missed out on the draw for the league B path.

I'm open to correction of course.

I was about say that you were incorrect outright, but there was a nagging doubt in my mind, like I had read something about a draw before. I checked Wikipedia and it described team selection based on ranking (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying#Team_selection). Then I linked through to the UEFA regulations and found the regulations below. Section 16.02 seems to reiterate that play-off team selection is based purely on ranking and that should be that. But then Section 16.03 starts talking about a draw to allocate teams and mentioning something cryptic about seeding principles, which seems to contradict Section 16.02 - unless they're saying that, once the four teams are determined by ranking, there's a draw to decide who plays who, subject to some vague seeding principles. Should we be watching for some shenanigans by UEFA?


Article 16 Path formation – play-offs

16.01 Twelve teams enter the play-offs, which are played in three separate paths of four teams each, to determine the remaining three teams that qualify for the final tournament.
16.02 To determine the 12 teams that enter the play-offs, the following principles apply in the order given:


Four play-off slots are allocated to each league from UEFA Nations League C to UEFA Nations League A, i.e. in reverse alphabetical order.


The UEFA Nations League group winners enter the play-offs unless they have qualified for the final tournament directly from the qualifying group stage.


If a UEFA Nations League group winner of Leagues A, B and C has qualified directly for the final tournament, the next best-ranked team in the relevant league ranking which has not directly qualified will enter the play-offs (see Regulations of the UEFA Nations League).


If fewer than four teams from one league enter the play-offs, the first available slot is allocated to the best-ranked group winner of League D in the overall 2022/23 UEFA Nations League rankings (see Regulations of the UEFA Nations League), unless it has already qualified for the final tournament. The remaining slots are then allocated to the best-ranked of the teams that have not already qualified for the final tournament on the basis of the overall 2022/23 UEFA Nations League rankings, subject to the restriction that group winners of Leagues A, B and C cannot be in a play-off path with higher-ranked teams.


16.03 The UEFA administration conducts a draw to allocate teams to the different play-off paths, starting with UEFA Nations League C, subject to the following conditions:


If four or more teams from a league enter the play-offs, a path of four teams from the league in question must be formed.


A group winner cannot form a path with a team from a higher-ranked league in the overall 2022/23 UEFA Nations League rankings.


Additional conditions including seeding principles may be applied, subject to approval by the UEFA Executive Committee.

[zero]

the indo have summarised the playoff picture nicely here:

https://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/international-soccer/explainer-irelands-12pc-chance-of-making-euro-2024-playoff-and-the-scenarios-that-need-to-happen/a1409049221.html

[geysir]

Sam, the criteria got the better of me last time but it became clearer when I saw how the 3 teams were selected from league c to join Iceland in the league A play off path. League B just had 4 teams who qualified for the play offs.

There was draw to select those three teams from League C, they were not selected on rankings (Hungary Romania and Bulgaria).
This time most probably there will only be 4 teams from League c who qualify for League c play off path.

If there are more than 4 in League B who qualify for the playoff there will be a draw to determine which non group winner will be placed in the league.A play off path.

[Insidetherock]

We're screwed with the play off routes after tonight's results

[elatedscum]

Yeah - we were pretty screwed anyway but we needed 2 of 4 scenarios to happen... 1) pretty unlikely 9% chance? 2) almost zero chance, less than 1% 3) likely enough 60% chance 4) very unlikely 2%



Assuming Croatia beat Wales, Turkey beat Latvia and Wales beat Armenia - we would need Wales to beat Turkey at home, by more at least more than a goal. Winning by a 2 goal margin would send it to goal difference - which would probably end up close, with a two goal win, Wales would be one goal up, but Wales losing to Croatia would have them at least one goal down, making it even. Then it comes down to if Wales can win by more against Armenia than Turkey can against Latvia. Overall very unlikely (FYI that Armenia team that everyone was saying were **** last year, they beat Wales in Wales, they drew with Turkey in Turkey and they only lost to Croatia by a goal - the longer it goes the better and better that Scotland, Ukraine, Ireland, Armenia group looks - with Scotland winning a group featuring Spain and Norway - and Ukraine likely to go down to the wire with Italy for a place in the group with England)
Albania will now certainly take Group E. They need 1 point from two games against Faroe Islands or Moldova. Definitely nothing happening for us there.
Israel finishing ahead of Romania is still likely. No idea what will happen there or how those games can be made up. Israel 2 points behind Romania with a game in hand. But they’re also guaranteed a playoff in March. So they’ll likely have 4 games to play in November which seems impossible.
So in this one, let's assume that Portugal beat Slovakia and Slovakia beat Luxembourg. That puts Slovakia on 16 points. We would then need either Iceland or Bosnia to beat both Portugal and Slovakia and you’d need the other team not to lose to Slovakia - so really unlikely to happen.

[samhaydenjr]

We're screwed with the play off routes after tonight's results

Yeah, I held out hope before today - but Croatia losing at home to Turkey and Albania hammer Czechia? I think the footballing gods have made their point about us qualifying. Well, might as well save the money and let Kenny see it out at this point - perhaps not firing him after the Greece game might have been the better option after all.

[CSAD]

Like I said when the draw was made I had hoped that we used up all our bad luck with the laughably bad draw we got that hopefully results at least in other qualifying results would go our way to make up for it…literally everything that could go wrong in the other groups has gone wrong, like others have said there is definitely someone up there in the heavens who does not want us at this tournament. We needed some shock results to have a chance and while thankfully we’ve had shocks sadly pretty much all of them have been bad shocks, the shock doesn’t tend to be results like Wales or Bosnia/Iceland miraculously Turing things around it tends to be results like Albania qualifying or Slovakia being so far ahead of the pack in their qualifying group.

[Strongbow10]

3 tickets available in Block520, row Q. Season ticket holders who can't attend. Let them go for best offer.

[tetsujin1979]

This is utterly bizarre, to say the least
1713118398048084175

[pineapple stu]

Think some posters were flagging it here at the start too. Greece v Holland on Monday is a tasty game now, though the Dutch hammered them at home last month.

Though it's looking highly unlikely we'll make the play-offs anyway. If Slovakia win in Luxembourg on Monday and Bosnia lose at home to Portugal, then Bosnia are out. (Luxembourg in fairness are unbeaten in the group apart from home/away to Portugal, and drew in Bratislava, so a Slovakia win isn't assured at all). And because Poland play the Czechs in the last round, Albania only need a point against the Faroes at home or Moldova away to qualify. That'd be the end of us, even before Israel try play four games next month to pass out Romania, or Wales play Croatia tonight needing (for us) a win.

We can't even make a 12-team play-off to qualify for a 24-team Euros now...

[backstothewall]

This is utterly bizarre, to say the least
1713118398048084175

What a fitting end to the Kenny era it would be to go to to Amsterdam and win the game we have to lose.

[EalingGreen]

What a fitting end to the Kenny era it would be to go to to Amsterdam and win the game we have to lose.Not only that, but might it keep him in the job for another bit?

[pineapple stu]

Wales beating Croatia is just kicking us while we're down

It's a result we need - puts Wales in second - but it looks like too little too late. Poland drawing against Moldova as it stands means Albania have qualified. So that and Slovakia/Luxembourg instead of Bosnia will be enough to do for us

Edit - actually, ignore that. We want Croatia and Wales to qualify. But this result would leave Turkey - who are easily beating Latvia - six points clear with two games to go (one game for Turkey). Turkey visit Wales next month so not all gone, but mostly gone. Croatia and Wales have to win all their games, and even then I think Croatia would come third on head-to-head

[backstothewall]

https://twitter.com/EURO2024/status/1713665558942507469?t=9SFlwiQ2YoM93WX_--syPg&s=19

Does this mean we're officially out?

[pineapple stu]

No. We can have two teams ranked below us in the Nations League qualify for the Euros. Turkey are one. I can't see why Albania haven't officially qualified yet, but it's a formality anyway - that's two. Then Bosnia may well be out of it after tonight, when they host Portugal. It doesn't matter if Slovakia or Luxembourg qualify instead - both were below us. That's the third strike and out

It's about 99.99% certain at this stage though

[CSAD]

Wales beating Croatia is just kicking us while we're down

It's a result we need - puts Wales in second - but it looks like too little too late. Poland drawing against Moldova as it stands means Albania have qualified. So that and Slovakia/Luxembourg instead of Bosnia will be enough to do for us

Edit - actually, ignore that. We want Croatia and Wales to qualify. But this result would leave Turkey - who are easily beating Latvia - six points clear with two games to go (one game for Turkey). Turkey visit Wales next month so not all gone, but mostly gone. Croatia and Wales have to win all their games, and even then I think Croatia would come third on head-to-head

Even with Belarus getting a draw against Switzerland you cant help but laugh, its almost like Switzerland are preparing to throw themselves under a bus just in case the Slovakia/Bosnia group goes our way to ensure Romania AND Israel qualify and as a result we still go out. Im not saying we deserve any luck at all but from the group we got drawn into and the results that have transpired around Europe it feels like literally everything that could possibly go against us has gone against us this campaign. It's like when we just need results to go as planned an upset occurs but then when we need an upset to go our way a results go as planned.

In Albania's case there is still a chance Moldova can qualify, shows just how awful a group that really is, which is keeping Albania from qualifying for the moment but its a formality as they only have to draw with the Faroe at home to secure qualification. Its irrelevant anyway as there is almost no chance Poland can get ahead of Albania unless there is some crazy 3 way tie.

We need Bosnia to get something from Portugal (ideally) and Slovakia/Luxembourg finishes in a draw (remember Luxembourg still have to play Lichtenstein so as far as I'm concerned they are ahead of Slovakia). In reality because of what I said about Bosnia will probably lose tonight and one of Slovakia/Luxembourg will win and its curtains and if by some miracle this group goes our way you can be sure Switzerland will lose/draw enough games to Romania/Israel which will put us out instead incase Romania dont get 2nd.

[pineapple stu]

In Albania's case there is still a chance Moldova can qualify, shows just how awful a group that really is, which is keeping Albania from qualifying for the moment but its a formality as they only have to draw with the Faroe at home to secure qualification. Its irrelevant anyway as there is almost no chance Poland can get ahead of Albania unless there is some crazy 3 way tie.
Ah - good spot. So yeah, the Czechs and Moldova could contrive to knock Albania out, but as you note, that's still no good to us. It's not possible for the Czechs and Poland to both qualify, so while Albania aren't qualified yet, this does still count as a second team below us in the Nations League to have qualified for the Euros directly.

One more will do it - so we need Bosnia to turn things around starting tonight (highly unlikely, especially with Slovakia playing Luxembourg as well so they can't both lose), Israel to pass Romania (Romania are stumbling, but Israel have four games in a month now)...and Holland to pass out Greece. So that's the anomaly that suddenly a defeat next month could be a good result.

Wins for Portugal and Slovakia this evening will formally end things.

[tetsujin1979]

The last time we lost five qualifiers was for Euro 1972. We lost five of the six games in the group, with only a draw against Sweden in the opening game of the qualifiers preventing a whitewash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_1972_qualifying_Group_6

[geysir]

As it stands now the Israel team are bound by a state imposed travel ban. That leaves some big questions about their ability to fulfill the remaining 4 fixtures inside the alloted time (all 4 away fixtures?). There are already so many spanners in the works against qual for the play offs, is there room for another one?
Even if that 0.1% chance of qualifying transpired, Ireland would likely draw the short straw and be thrown into the League A path with an away fixture v Italy.

[EalingGreen]

The last time we lost five qualifiers was for Euro 1972. We lost five of the six games in the group, with only a draw against Sweden in the opening game of the qualifiers preventing a whitewash
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_1972_qualifying_Group_6Shocking Goal Difference of -14 (F3 A17)

[geysir]

Shocking Goal Difference of -14 (F3 A17)
Mainly due to 6 goals conceded v Austria away with Ireland fielding a LOI team and 4 goals v Austria at home due to Dunphy being selected at CH, subbed at ht.

[EalingGreen]

Mainly due to 6 goals conceded v Austria away with Ireland fielding a LOI team and 4 goals v Austria at home due to Dunphy being selected at CH, subbed at ht.Fair dues.

Though scoring 3 times in 6 games is a bit poor, too, esp since two were peno's.