UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifying Group B

[pineapple stu]

It is 6 easy points. The mistake you are making is comparing Armenia with Gibraltar as if they are similar challenges, one was in League B and the other is still in League D.
Gibraltar are in League C (pending the relegation playoffs)

I'd compare it more with that Andorra game where we struggled badly for an hour and went 1-0 down before they tired. Something similar isn't out of the question here. It. should be an easy six points and I don't think we'll do as badly against them as under Mick, but I think we're not out of the woods yet in terms of bad performances and it's worth being cautious of them.

Stutts' summary is a good one, although I don't think the performance level we showed against Portugal/Serbia last time would lead to similar results this time. I think they're free hits though so long as we don't lose 4-0 or something.

Greece is the key game and they're slightly higher rated than us. I think Kenny can't afford to come fourth in this

[CSAD]

I actually think this is a great draw for Kenny from his personal point of view.

1. We’ve been better against good teams and worse against teams where we’re expected to own the ball and break down stubborn defences
2. There’s really only one team here where failing to beat would be a career-ending disaster
3. We don’t start with Gibraltar away!
4. There might not be a runaway winner
5. It’s a great test of progress, will draw big crowds to Dublin and will be a brilliant coming of age experience for the squad
6. The group offers a real chance to outperform expectations – which offers Kenny a chance to extend his stay
7. There’s still a good likelihood of a NL payoff – though not much room for things to go against us (Sweden & Romania might upset the apple cart)

I’m excited by it. Some great matches in prospect.

The other positive is Kenny has had so much bad luck in the draw that surely he?s used it all up and couldn?t possibly have more bad things go his way (ie Romania and Sweden qualifying automatically) right?

[CSAD]

Gibraltar are in League C (pending the relegation playoffs)

I'd compare it more with that Andorra game where we struggled badly for an hour and went 1-0 down before they tired. Something similar isn't out of the question here. It. should be an easy six points and I don't think we'll do as badly against them as under Mick, but I think we're not out of the woods yet in terms of bad performances and it's worth being cautious of them.

Stutts' summary is a good one, although I don't think the performance level we showed against Portugal/Serbia last time would lead to similar results this time. I think they're free hits though so long as we don't lose 4-0 or something.

Greece is the key game and they're slightly higher rated than us. I think Kenny can't afford to come fourth in this

Andorra in a end of season Friendly and Gibraltar in a qualifier aren?t exactly comparable. A lot could come down to how we do in Greece just before. There isn?t an accurate comparison as the worst team we?ve played in qualifying is still a lot better than Gibraltar.

I think Portugal away would be good enough, that for me is still the bench mark performance for this team to hit and with that performance we?d give ourselves shot against either Netherlands or France. I definitely think it would be good enough to give us a shot against the Dutch at least.

Any team from the continent will be rated slightly ahead of us, that?s just the way Europe thinks it seems, same with Scotland, Wales, NIreland sadly. At the end of the day we are ranked higher, seeded higher and have been a higher division than Greece for 3 NL?s so there is no excuse to finish lower and to do so would be a sign of regression.

The good news is Gus Poyet is already implying we play British style football so it?s clear he hasn?t done any research on us which bodes well for round 2!

[Stuttgart88]

The other positive is Kenny has had so much bad luck in the draw that surely he?s used it all up and couldn?t possibly have more bad things go his way (ie Romania and Sweden qualifying automatically) right?

Of course. And as a Rovers, Arsenal and Celtic fan I can only see the world in a positive light today myself.

[pineapple stu]

Andorra in a end of season Friendly and Gibraltar in a qualifier aren?t exactly comparable.
I hope it's not and I think it probably isn't alright

But we were god-awful in that game, and showed the same attacking deficiencies in other games, so I'll still bank on the six points when we have them.

Portugal away was a backs-to-the-wall desperate hanging on match where, though we did the job brilliantly well for the most part, I would not like to see us try it again. On another day that penalty goes in, the header off the post goes in, we lose 5-0

28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 is not a performance I think we should be setting as a benchmark

[CSAD]

I hope it's not and I think it probably isn't alright

But we were god-awful in that game, and showed the same attacking deficiencies in other games, so I'll still bank on the six points when we have them.

Portugal away was a backs-to-the-wall desperate hanging on match where, though we did the job brilliantly well for the most part, I would not like to see us try it again. On another day that penalty goes in, the header off the post goes in, we lose 5-0

28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 is not a performance I think we should be setting as a benchmark

I don?t think it plus at that point we went into that game rock bottom confidence wise having just lost to Luxembourg in our previous match. Things aren?t as bad now and because of the importance of the match I can?t see us screwing up like we did that day.

Any game against France will be backs to the wall, what needs to happen is us posing a threat on the counter which we did in Faro despite what the stats say. And on another day if anyone other than Ronaldo was in those positions we probably scrap the win and if not at least a point.

It?s more about the approach though, we still were trying to get forward and make something happen but of course for the last 20
Mins or so Portugal were really pushing for an equalizer and it showed the stats.

I?d be more hoping for a Germany 2015 style of performance if I had to pick any kind of performance and to be fair no one in a month of Sundays saw us pulling that rabbit out of a hat back then but we managed it!

[Stuttgart88]

I hope it's not and I think it probably isn't alright

But we were god-awful in that game, and showed the same attacking deficiencies in other games, so I'll still bank on the six points when we have them.

Portugal away was a backs-to-the-wall desperate hanging on match where, though we did the job brilliantly well for the most part, I would not like to see us try it again. On another day that penalty goes in, the header off the post goes in, we lose 5-0

28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 is not a performance I think we should be setting as a benchmarkOn another day Parrott scores in Scotland and we win 2-1. Football is full of ifs and buts.

[pineapple stu]

Things aren't as bad now but the two Armenia games showed the same lack of creativity. Gibraltar will defend deep and feel they may have a chance of frustrating us

The last 20 minutes of the Portugal game didn't skew the stats so much that they warped them out of relevance. We may have tried to get forward but we weren't very good at it. And that was a Portugal team who specialise in under-performing

[pineapple stu]

On another day Parrott scores in Scotland and we win 2-1. Football is full of ifs and buts.

Well yes, but we don't have another day against Scotland coming up?

But we do have another day against a top side coming up. Past performance is no guarantee of future success, so I don't agree with CSAD that we can use the Portugal performance as a benchmark.

[Trequartista20]

How Ireland could still qualify for the Euros even if they finish bottom of their group:

https://www.the42.ie/how-ireland-could-still-qualify-for-the-euros-even-if-they-finish-bottom-of-their-group-5889216-Oct2022/

[Real ale Madrid]

. And that was a Portugal team who specialise in under-performing

Ah yes the Portuguese - who won the Euro's in 2016, and the Nations league in 2019 - perennial underachievers. Its a wonder we didn't beat them home and away

[Insidetherock]

How Ireland could still qualify for the Euros even if they finish bottom of their group:

https://www.the42.ie/how-ireland-could-still-qualify-for-the-euros-even-if-they-finish-bottom-of-their-group-5889216-Oct2022/

You'd think the 42 would at least give me a credit when they basically said what I wrote in the post yesterday :)

[Trequartista20]

Kenny supporters like to hold up the fact that we have finished according to our seeding in the three full campaigns we've so far had under him as manager as some sort of small victory: 'what do you expect? We finished according to par.'

As well as giving lie to the idea that we are, as they claim, making real and tangible 'progress', this ignores how far we've been behind teams above us in the final standings as well as how badly we've fared in games with teams we've ultimately finished ahead of, whilst also failing to recognise the role Kenny played in creating this low glass ceiling - our third pot status being a consequence of the poor results he's achieved thus far. Yet with this draw, once again, we hear about poor old Kenny's 'bad luck'.

Well, finishing according to our seeding this time involves finishing above Greece, which is by no means a given. So let's see...

All things being equal, everyone will beat Gibraltar home and away, rendering results against them completely irrelevant, and ourselves France, Netherlands and Greece are all capable of getting points off each other. Greece already being assured of a play-off spot is an interesting element to the dynamic as well.

So, looking at it positively, this could be tight group. And, if we're competitive in every single match, who knows what might happen? We shouldn't write our chances off before a ball has been kicked, by any means.

[elatedscum]

Am I right in saying that we can afford 2 nations ranked below us qualifying but not 3?

[Stuttgart88]

Yes I think so. I (re)started this discussion in the Nations League thread (https://foot.ie/threads/271702-2022-Nations-League-Group-B1/page15).

[Bielsa´s irish]

Imagine if Slovakia was he spot 5 tema. This is an horror show. The walking dead of football. Mark my words Kenny will lose At home and in Salonika too!!

[pineapple stu]

Ah yes the Portuguese - who won the Euro's in 2016, and the Nations league in 2019 - perennial underachievers. Its a wonder we didn't beat them home and away
2016 is a long time ago. Since then they've been decidedly underwhelming at the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020 and needed the playoffs to reach Qatar. There's been plenty of comments too that they're far from the sum of their parts, and I think their manager was coming under a fair bit of pressure for it in the lead up to that Faro game

[CSAD]

Kenny supporters like to hold up the fact that we have finished according to our seeding in the three full campaigns we've so far had under him as manager as some sort of small victory: 'what do you expect? We finished according to par.'

As well as giving lie to the idea that we are, as they claim, making real and tangible 'progress', this ignores how far we've been behind teams above us in the final standings as well as how badly we've fared in games with teams we've ultimately finished ahead of, whilst also failing to recognise the role Kenny played in creating this low glass ceiling - our third pot status being a consequence of the poor results he's achieved thus far. Yet with this draw, once again, we hear about poor old Kenny's 'bad luck'.

Well, finishing according to our seeding this time involves finishing above Greece, which is by no means a given. So let's see...

All things being equal, everyone will beat Gibraltar home and away, rendering results against them completely irrelevant, and ourselves France, Netherlands and Greece are all capable of getting points off each other. Greece already being assured of a play-off spot is an interesting element to the dynamic as well.

So, looking at it positively, this could be tight group. And, if we're competitive in every single match, who knows what might happen? We shouldn't write our chances off before a ball has been kicked, by any means.

We literally drew the hardest team we could have got in each pot which we probably had a 1 in 10 chance of doing?how is that anything other than bad luck?

[Diggs246]

We literally drew the hardest team we could have got in each pot which we probably had a 1 in 10 chance of doing?how is that anything other than bad luck?
Because we are in pot 3 because of kenny and his poor results
You create your luck in life

[elatedscum]

It was an awful draw.

There were 5 teams you wanted to avoid in Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Portugal. In Pool 2, there were 2 teams: France, England. And if you did get France or England, you'd hope you'd get a team like Hungary or Switzerland or Poland. So we basically had a 10% chance of getting a rough draw and with France being stronger than England and the Netherlands stronger than average good Pot 1 side. Getting the second best and the best team in both pots is basically a 2% outcome, getting Spain and France being the 1% outcome, but the 6th percentile outcome for Ukraine is pretty bad too (Italy and England).

That's ignoring the 4th seed. Greece were probably the best 4th seed and them and Turkey were the only have decent sides in that pot. Once again though, if you're purely talking about qualification, then when you've got two excellent teams, the quality of the 4th seed is pretty immaterial - like there's no scenario where it's us and Greece qualifying. And Greece are more likely to take points off France than the Faroe Islands would be. Obviously the chance of us coming 4th is much higher than it would be if we had the Faroes in our group, which will affect our future seedings and so on.

What you'd hope is that one of France and Netherlands beat the other home and away, and we pick up draws against them all, even 3 draws and a loss would be enough if it were against the better side. Then we beat Gibraltar and Greece home and away. That's how you'd map the path. It starts with not losing to France in March.

[seanfhear]

If Kenny is an Unlucky General then .................

[Bielsa´s irish]

For me is simple after this draw, Kenny has to step down.
France at home defeat
Greece in Salonika/ Athens a defeat
Gibraltar at home a narrow victory a draw.
Then it comes Holland and Co. Doomed
The guy has bad karma I think.

If Martin O Neill is a wiseguy lucky coach, this Kenny coach is the opposite.
He must resign

[SkStu]

Because we are in pot 3 because of kenny and his poor results
You create your luck in life

We were in Pot 3 (2020) and Pot 4 (2018) before Kenny came along. Like, come on..

I suppose another way of looking at it is he?s kept us in the third seed spot despite the challenges of a change in approach and a significant change in personnel.

[Real ale Madrid]

2016 is a long time ago. Since then they've been decidedly underwhelming at the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020 and needed the playoffs to reach Qatar. There's been plenty of comments too that they're far from the sum of their parts, and I think their manager was coming under a fair bit of pressure for it in the lead up to that Faro game

That's a long way from "specialising in underperforming" to be fair.

It's hardly a criticism anyway to say we were backs against the wall away to Portugal. We'll be backs against the wall against France and Holland away like we would any top side away from home.

[pineapple stu]

The point being made was that the performance in Portugal - 28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 - was a benchmark performance for the team to hit.

I don't think it is at all, and I think if France/Holland have those sort of stats against us, we could easily lose 3-0/4-0.

You can acknowledge we defended well while at the same time recognising that the overall team performance wasn't the sort of one we should target on a regular basis.

[CSAD]

It was an awful draw.

There were 5 teams you wanted to avoid in Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Portugal. In Pool 2, there were 2 teams: France, England. And if you did get France or England, you'd hope you'd get a team like Hungary or Switzerland or Poland. So we basically had a 10% chance of getting a rough draw and with France being stronger than England and the Netherlands stronger than average good Pot 1 side. Getting the second best and the best team in both pots is basically a 2% outcome, getting Spain and France being the 1% outcome, but the 6th percentile outcome for Ukraine is pretty bad too (Italy and England).

That's ignoring the 4th seed. Greece were probably the best 4th seed and them and Turkey were the only have decent sides in that pot. Once again though, if you're purely talking about qualification, then when you've got two excellent teams, the quality of the 4th seed is pretty immaterial - like there's no scenario where it's us and Greece qualifying. And Greece are more likely to take points off France than the Faroe Islands would be. Obviously the chance of us coming 4th is much higher than it would be if we had the Faroes in our group, which will affect our future seedings and so on.

What you'd hope is that one of France and Netherlands beat the other home and away, and we pick up draws against them all, even 3 draws and a loss would be enough if it were against the better side. Then we beat Gibraltar and Greece home and away. That's how you'd map the path. It starts with not losing to France in March.

To be honest if we want any chance of 2nd we simply have to beat France in the first game. If I look back to 2018 when the Dutch and French were in the same group Sweden actually pipped the Dutch but despite that they didn?t do that well over the 4 matches against the top seeds, they beat France yes (very lucky, France basic handed Sweden their winner in the last kick of the game) but what happened was the French beat the Dutch twice and the Dutch then slipped up in Sofia. What we could do with winning the Greek & Gibraltar games (home and away, easier said than done but that has to be the target). Be competitive at home against the French and Dutch and fingers crossed we somehow pull the unthinkable in one of them and after that see how the cards fall.

[CSAD]

The point being made was that the performance in Portugal - 28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 - was a benchmark performance for the team to hit.

I don't think it is at all, and I think if France/Holland have those sort of stats against us, we could easily lose 3-0/4-0

You could say the same about Portugal though considering who they had in their attack. I think you are massively overestimating Holland and France quality in comparison to Portugal. Portugal had Jota, CR7, Bernardo Silva in their attack and couldn?t score for 89 minutes with those stats, if they couldn?t score then what?s to say the others would? Maybe if they scored from every chance they created which is unlikely even for a general as unlucky as Kenny.

[Jd2793]

The point being made was that the performance in Portugal - 28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 - was a benchmark performance for the team to hit.

I don't think it is at all, and I think if France/Holland have those sort of stats against us, we could easily lose 3-0/4-0.

You can acknowledge we defended well while at the same time recognising that the overall team performance wasn't the sort of one we should target on a regular basis.

we did struggle to get out 2nd half but at the same time they really didnt create much at all. we limited them to what were mostly speculative long range efforts dont think they carved us open much at all? seriba at home was the worst performance of the lot tbh that was a real pasting.

[elatedscum]

Because we are in pot 3 because of kenny and his poor results
You create your luck in life

not that much:

Ukraine who finished ahead of us, got Italy and England.

Armenia who finished bottom of our group got Croatia, Wales, Armenia, Turkey, Latvia.

Nothern Ireland who were 5th seeds got: Denmark, Finland, Slovenia, Kazakstan, Northern Ireland, San Marino. Genuinely if Kenny had lost almost every game we had since he arrived that might have been our slot in the groups.

[ifk101]

The point being made was that the performance in Portugal - 28% possession, 6 shots v 29, 3 corners v 14 - was a benchmark performance for the team to hit.

I don't think it is at all, and I think if France/Holland have those sort of stats against us, we could easily lose 3-0/4-0.

You can acknowledge we defended well while at the same time recognising that the overall team performance wasn't the sort of one we should target on a regular basis.

We had 66% possession, 8 v 1 corners, and 21 v 4 shots against Armenia. So against other opposition with those stats we win 3 or 4-0? Benchmark performance to hit?

Doesn't tell the full story though, does it? Sometimes you need to watch the games ....

[CSAD]

We had 66% possession, 8 v 1 corners, and 21 v 4 shots against Armenia. So against other opposition with those stats we win 3 or 4-0? Benchmark performance to hit?

Doesn't tell the full story though, does it? Sometimes you need to watch the games ....

And with 7 shots on target from 29 should tell you (like watching the game would) a lot of those shots were desperate shots because they couldn?t break down the Irish defense.

[ifk101]

And with 7 shots on target from 29 should tell you (like watching the game would) a lot of those shots were desperate shots because they couldn?t break down the Irish defense.

Presumably the penalty saved, and goals in the 89th and 96th minute are three of the shots on target. 12 of the 29 shots are classified as "shots blocked" - defenders doing their job in other words :-)

[osarusan]

Terrible draw for Ireland

Not the worst draw for Kenny in that Ireland could lose home and away to both Netherlands and France and not have people calling for his head. Greece a potential threat in that regard, but hard to know how they'll be looking when the games come around.

Gibraltar...he has to manage wins home and away. If not surely it is over then and there for hm.

[pineapple stu]

You could say the same about Portugal though considering who they had in their attack. I think you are massively overestimating Holland and France quality in comparison to Portugal. Portugal had Jota, CR7, Bernardo Silva in their attack and couldn?t score for 89 minutes with those stats, if they couldn?t score then what?s to say the others would? Maybe if they scored from every chance they created which is unlikely even for a general as unlucky as Kenny.
Correct on Portugal - hence the comment that they're often less than the sum of their parts lately.

But what's to say others would have scored with those stats? Perhaps the fact that others have scored with those stats? From 2020, a game with 44% possession, 4 shots v 20, 2 corners v 12 ended England 3-0 Ireland. We barely laid a glove on our last trip to France in 2018 - 24% possession, 5 shots v 18, 2 corners v 9 - and we were flattered by a 2-0 scoreline. Go back a bit further, and you have Germany 3-0 Ireland, with 25% possession, 12 shots v 28, 4 corners v 16. That's going to happen more often than not when you give up that many chances.

So again, the performance in Portugal was not a bench-mark performance we should be looking to achieve. And you could reach that conclusion by watching the game as well as looking at the stats.

[ifk101]

Terrible draw for Ireland

Not the worst draw for Kenny in that Ireland could lose home and away to both Netherlands and France and not have people calling for his head. Greece a potential threat in that regard, but hard to know how they'll be looking when the games come around.

Gibraltar...he has to manage wins home and away. If not surely it is over then and there for hm.

So, you are suggesting a contract extension for the next two qualification campaigns? (dependent on wins against Gibraltar and possibly Greece (depending on how Greece turn out to be)). Because if he is currently incentivised to lose with the difficult EC draw, a contract extension for the next WC qualification campaign removes that incentive and aligns our best interests?

[Diggs246]

We were in Pot 3 (2020) and Pot 4 (2018) before Kenny came along. Like, come on..

I suppose another way of looking at it is he?s kept us in the third seed spot despite the challenges of a change in approach and a significant change in personnel.

I might be wrong here but was there not a situation a while back were all we had to do was beat a hopeless Bulgarian team in Dublin. To mentain or go up a pot? I might be wrong

[zero]

So, you are suggesting a contract extension for the next two qualification campaigns? (dependent on wins against Gibraltar and possibly Greece (depending on how Greece turn out to be)). Because if he is currently incentivised to lose with the difficult EC draw, a contract extension for the next WC qualification campaign removes that incentive and aligns our best interests?

I think there's a significant number of fans who don't care about qualifying anymore. The old 'we don't have the players' line that is trotted out when a team is a mess. There's an attitude of let SK at it, sure we'll never qualify anyway, give the young lads a chance and knock the ball around at the back.

[nigel-harps1954]

Gibraltar...he has to manage wins home and away. If not surely it is over then and there for hm.

Something Mick McCarthy only barely managed to do, to be fair.

[osarusan]

So, you are suggesting a contract extension for the next two qualification campaigns? (dependent on wins against Gibraltar and possibly Greece (depending on how Greece turn out to be)). Because if he is currently incentivised to lose with the difficult EC draw, a contract extension for the next WC qualification campaign removes that incentive and aligns our best interests?

I think he should already be gone.

Im just saying that the kind of opponent that a defeat against would really generate pressure on him becomes less likely with the draw we got.

[brine3]

France and The Netherlands and not much better than Denmark and Switzerland?

To be fair, Switzerland did knock France out of the Euros and qualified for the World Cup ahead of Italy.

[ifk101]

Gibraltar game moved to Faro.


The Republic of Ireland will travel to Portugal for their Euro 2024 qualifier with Gibraltar after the Gibraltar FA confirmed that all of their home matches will be played in Faro.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2022/1013/1328993-gibraltar-v-ireland-qualifier-moved-to-portugal/

[tetsujin1979]

Can fly direct there with Ryanair. It's a nice spot, flew there and stayed in Albufeira a few years ago

[Diggs246]

Thats my mates stag sorted 👍

[Fixer82]

Gibraltar game moved to Faro.

At least there won't be jumbo jets taking off 100 yards from the pitch

[paul_oshea]

I've been to that area about 3 or 4 times at this stage, once by choice for golf, really dislike the place. Its everything a "holiday" destination shouldn't be.

[Kingdom]

Who decides that Ireland should be punished and the terms of such punishment? Does that most evil power control how the draw turns out?

Vince McMahon has had some time on his hands recently.

[samhaydenjr]

I'll start with a glimmer of hope - by my reckoning, if the qualifying groups pan out according to Nations League rankings (or there's a couple of minor deviations between League B teams ranked higher than us - Slovenia instead of Finland, Norway instead of Scotland) then we will be in a play-off group with Albania, Montenegro and the best League D team.

On the downside, though, if three teams ranked below us qualify through the regular route (eg Sweden, Romania and Turkey), then we're out. Someone can check this if they want.

So let's assume the first scenario unfolds - do we let Kenny lead us into what looks like a very winnable playoff tournament, regardless of what happens in the main qualifiers. If not, at what point does it make footballing and financial sense to make a switch?

[jbyrne]

I'll start with a glimmer of hope - by my reckoning, if the qualifying groups pan out according to Nations League rankings (or there's a couple of minor deviations between League B teams ranked higher than us - Slovenia instead of Finland, Norway instead of Scotland) then we will be in a play-off group with Albania, Montenegro and the best League D team.


does this not depend on us finishing 3rd ahead of Greece? I wouldn't bank on that happening to be honest.

[Stuttgart88]

does this not depend on us finishing 3rd ahead of Greece? I wouldn't bank on that happening to be honest.

No, it's got nothing to do with how we do in the qualifying group. There are [20] spots available via the qualifying groups, [3] via the NL process. We'll get one of the "spare" NL slots as long as 3 teams that finished lower ranked than us in the NL don't qualify via the group process. That's the only variable. We can come last in our qualifying group.

And if we do get one of the NL play off spots it's likely it'll be against mid-tier opposition.

[pineapple stu]

And Greece have already won their League C group so are in that playoff by default