2022 Nations League - Group B1

[Eirambler]

Does that mean they will just multiply each team in that group's points by 1.5 at the end to make up the difference between them playing four games and the rest playing six. That's probably a reasonable way to do it, though the teams in that group do benefit a bit because Russia would likely have been the strongest team. There's no perfect solution though.

[pineapple stu]

e.g. Iceland played 3, points 3, are ranked higher than Ireland played 4 points 4.
Iceland are ranked higher than Ireland because they're second in their group and we're third.

I think the only real impact in terms of seeding is that the top-ranked second-placed team in League B is going to be a second seed and the others will be third seeds - but Iceland are well off the pace anyway, having not yet won a game, so that's unlikely to be an issue.

It'll also have minimal impact on the Euro 2024 play-offs - the four League B group winners qualify for the play-offs, and if they've already also qualified for the Euros, then the next best team from that same group will take their place. I think it's only if all four teams from one group qualify that you then have to go hunting for a team from another group, and then it might be an issue.

[Insidetherock]

I dont think it's the next best team from the group, its the next best available ranked team that would step up

The top four teams in the groups get ranked 1-4

2nd Place get ranked 5-8

3rd place get 9-12

4th place 13-16

If a team was in a group where the top 2 automatically qualified, they might be ranked 10th overall.. whereas a team that came 2nd could be ranked 8th

The team overall ranked 8th would take preference for a play off spot if available

[pineapple stu]

Ah - you may be right actually; I think I've mis-read the wording on wiki (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying_play-offs) -


If a group winner has directly qualified through the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying group stage, then they will be replaced by the next best-ranked team from the same league that has not also directly qualified.

I didn't spot the difference between "group winner" and "same league". But yes, it does seem that if, say, Israel quality through the group stage, then it would be the best runner-up (currently Serbia) and not the next team in Israel's league (currently Iceland) who would benefit.

So that does put the three-team group sides at a disadvantage alright, albeit that the group winners will be guaranteed a play-off spot anyway and the runners-up will almost certainly get one too. And if a third place team doesn't get a spot, they can't really have much to complain about anyway.

[Insidetherock]

This was how it worked last time

Based on the Nations League rankings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319_UEFA_Nations_League#Overall_rankin g), the 16 selected teams were chosen as follows, starting with League D and working up to League A:[8] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_qualifying_play-offs#cite_note-media_briefing-8)


All available group winners were selected.





If a group winner had already qualified through the UEFA Euro 2020 qualifying (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020_qualifying) group stage, they were replaced by the next best-ranked team from the same league that had not also already qualified.





If fewer than four teams from a given league had failed to qualify, then the remaining spaces for that league were allocated by the overall ranking:

If the league had a group winner selected for the play-offs, then the next best team in the overall ranking from a lower league was selected.
If the league had no group winner available, then the best team in the overall ranking was selected.



Theres a difference between "next best team in the group".. and "next best team in the League"

The current state of play is

1-4

Norway, Bosnia, Ukraine, Isreal

5-8

Serbia, Montenegro, Scotland, Iceland

9-12

Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Albania

13-16

Romania, Armenia, Slovenia


Now, looking across those groups, Group 4 contains Norway and Serbia, who are decent odds to qualify directly

But the Swedes tend to do well in qualifiers too

Slovenia would then be the only team that didn't qualify from the group, and are ranked 15th

No way would they jump above a higher ranked team, just because of the luck of the draw with the group they were in.



On current UEFA rankings lets imagine that teams qualify according to their rankings.. so, the top 16 qualify

Belgium, France, England, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Croatia, Wales, Sweden, Serbia, Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic

Along with Germany as hosts.

If the playoffs were to be allocated based on the tables this morning

The non qualified teams from Path A would be:

Austria, Hungary - so they will require teams from lower leagues to make up the play off path

The non qualified teams from Path B

Scotland, Ireland, Armenia

Isreal, Iceland, Albania

Bosnia, Montenegro, Finland, Romania

Norway, Slovenia

The play offs for this path would then be

Israel, Bosnia, Norway - and the next best unqualified team in Group B, which is currently Montenegro

Then, as there are still two unallocated play off spots in the Group A path, they would go to the next two best ranked teams in Group B, that hadn't qualified

which are, Scotland and Iceland


So currently, if things were to "freeze" today, Ireland would neither qualify via the main qualifying, and miss out on a qualifier spot by one place

Now of course, things could get worse... teams from C ranked countries could qualify directly, making even less spaces for teams in B or A paths unless they top the groups.

But to be assured of a play off.. we'd really need to be coming second

And of course, to make it all moot.. we'd qualify directly



Just for added blackguarding.. here are the seedings for the Euro's, based on todays standings

Top seeds

Denmark, Croatia, Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Austria, Czech Republic

Pot 2

France, Switzerland, England, Poland, Wales, Norway, Bosnia, Ukraine, Isreal, Serbia,

Pot 3

Montenegro, Scotland, Iceland, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Albania, Romania, Armenia, Slovenia

[ltfc_2004]

Looking at Leagues A&B of the 31 eligible teams must will be in 20 direct qualifiers. So leaving upto 11 teams to squeeze in 8 spots in A&B pathways. If we finish third we should be ok for a playoff position or on the bubble. We are currently ranked 25th of the 32 teams (24th if you exclude Germany). I forgot to add that Russia currently count inside the 32 but the reality is they will be cut from qualifying.

[Eirambler]

Inside the rock - you've a miscalculation there, it's 20 teams that qualify automatically, not 16. So if you froze it now we'd get a playoff place unless a surprising number of lower ranked teams qualified automatically.

[elatedscum]

Basically if we win both our remaining games, we have a possibility to be the best second placed team and the best second placed team is a 2nd seed for the group stages for the euros.

If we finish second in the group, we are almost guaranteed to have a playoff to fall back on - but we are still likely to get one if we finish 3rd

Meanwhile the chance of us getting a playoff place if we finish 4th is minuscule (the highest ranked 4th team would go to playoff if no League C or League D teams qualified directly. But realistically, there’s always one or two.

[pineapple stu]

Inside the rock - you've a miscalculation there, it's 20 teams that qualify automatically, not 16.
21 technically, including Germany as hosts

[Insidetherock]

Inside the rock - you've a miscalculation there, it's 20 teams that qualify automatically, not 16. So if you froze it now we'd get a playoff place unless a surprising number of lower ranked teams qualified automatically.

Good spot.. mea culpa.. would still love to get that second spot though, to be sure to be sure.. :)

[Insidetherock]

Basically if we win both our remaining games, we have a possibility to be the best second placed team and the best second placed team is a 2nd seed for the group stages for the euros.

If we finish second in the group, we are almost guaranteed to have a playoff to fall back on - but we are still likely to get one if we finish 3rd

Meanwhile the chance of us getting a playoff place if we finish 4th is minuscule (the highest ranked 4th team would go to playoff if no League C or League D teams qualified directly. But realistically, there’s always one or two.

Yep, that's about the size of it.

Best case scenario in September is beat Scotland and Armenia - assured second I reckon

Draw with Scotland, beat Armenia.. hope Scotland get no more than a point from the 2 Ukrainian games - second based on H2H with Scotland

Finish 3rd and hope the qualifiers fall our way to get at least a play off

Worst case.. finish last and drop down to C.. arrghhh

[Insidetherock]

Edited post to update mistake earlier


On current UEFA rankings lets imagine that teams qualify according to their rankings.. so, the top 20 qualify

Belgium, France, England, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Croatia, Wales, Sweden, Serbia, Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Austria, Scotland, Hungary, Norway

Along with Germany as hosts, and excluding Russia who will likely still be banned by the time the draw takes place



If the playoffs were to be allocated based on the tables this morning

The non qualified teams from Path A would be:

Zero

But, this creates an anomaly that I will bring up in a minute.




The non qualified teams from Path B

Ireland, Armenia

Isreal, Iceland, Albania

Bosnia, Montenegro, Finland, Romania

Slovenia


The play offs for this path would then be

Israel, Bosnia,

But, this where the anomaly kicks in.

The next two non qualified teams in B, are Iceland and Ireland.

So,

Israel, Bosnia, Iceland, Montenegro

But there are still no teams gone up to A... so you might imagine, the next four again would go up to make up the A play off (like Ireland, N Ireland and Slovakia did last time, to compete with Iceland)

And the next four currently are..

Ireland, Albania, Finland, Romania


But..

The Isrealis and Bosnians would have a good argument for saying that the A path like this, is actually an easier pathway to qualify, than the B pathway (its full of 3/4 place teams, while the B path has 1/2nd placed teams)

So, I think Israel would be pushed up as the 1st place team in A.. and Bosnia as the first placed team in B

Making the A play off

Isreal, Albania, Finland, Romania

And the B play off

Bosnia, Iceland, Ireland, Montenegro


Complicated eh :)

[pineapple stu]

Something similar happened for Euro 2020 - only one League A team (Iceland) failed to qualify automatically, and they were joined by three League C teams in the League A play-off. So Hungary - who qualified - technically had an easier route than Slovakia, who had to get past a set of League B teams.

[Eirambler]

Probably there will be at least one League A team that won't make it automatically, Austria or Wales or someone like that. So the weaker performing B teams will then get bumped up to play against them as happened last time. The other disadvantage of a third place Nations League finish would be that it will probably be an away playoff semi final for us, as happened against Slovakia last time.

[Insidetherock]

Something similar happened for Euro 2020 - only one League A team (Iceland) failed to qualify automatically, and they were joined by three League C teams in the League A play-off. So Hungary - who qualified - technically had an easier route than Slovakia, who had to get past a set of League B teams.

The argument there though, was that Hungary would have had to get past the A team, Iceland

[Insidetherock]

Probably there will be at least one League A team that won't make it automatically, Austria or Wales or someone like that. So the weaker performing B teams will then get bumped up to play against them as happened last time. The other disadvantage of a third place Nations League finish would be that it will probably be an away playoff semi final for us, as happened against Slovakia last time.

Yeah, would be surprised if every A team got through, especially now there are going to be some big fish swimming in the second seed pots too (England, France etc)

Wales without Bale are a vastly different side too.. and Switzerland seem to be in a down cycle

[pineapple stu]

The argument there though, was that Hungary would have had to get past the A team, Iceland

Yeah, it was a bit unusual too in that Iceland aren't really a League A team any more.

A side like Hungary would be an easy tie for a proper League A side like, I don't know, England :p

[Insidetherock]

Yeah, it was a bit unusual too in that Iceland aren't really a League A team any more.

A side like Hungary would be an easy tie for a proper League A side like, I don't know, England :p

A but they were then in fairness

[pineapple stu]

Well even then they weren't really; I know they were there in merit but they were outclassed like no other side in the league.

But yeah, while in this case Hungary had an easier draw, you're right that in general it should be the League A side who benefits, and Hungary, who didn't even win League C, should be happy to have the back door option at all

[Insidetherock]

Were currently ranked 25th in UEFA in the FIFA rankings.. so we're there or thereabouts..

Been learning German a few years now.. will be gutted if we dont make it

[geysir]

Well even then they weren't really; I know they were there in merit but they were outclassed like no other side in the league.

But yeah, while in this case Hungary had an easier draw, you're right that in general it should be the League A side who benefits, and Hungary, who didn't even win League C, should be happy to have the back door option at all Thats technical talk, in reality Hungary had a good team, just scraped through the play off final with 2 late goals and entered a really tough group in th euros where they acquited themselves well. They were a much better team than their C league status indicated as is also evidenced in the current league A

[Insidetherock]

You'll get anomalies like that now and again.. weren't Serbia in the C group last time too

[geysir]

You'll get anomalies like that now and again.. weren't Serbia in the C group last time too
Is that Serbia who were a mile and a half ahead of us?
Hungary are not just any molly, we are looking over a 4 year period where they qualified for euro 2020 and did well in the Euros in an actual group of death, then topped their League B group and are now in League A topping the table. If Ireland had that anomaly, Kenny would be sainted for eternity. Sometimes Irish fans are ridiculous in their condescension about the merits other European teams and totally blind to where we stand in the scheme of things.

[tetsujin1979]

Ukraine leading Armenia 1-0, second half underway
Live updates here
https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/match/2034530--armenia-vs-ukraine/

[CSAD]

Just further shows how royally we ****ed up in Yerevan?

[pineapple stu]

2-0 now. That would mathematically end any remote chances of us winning the group, though it does at least mean that a draw on Tuesday is all we need to stay up.

[CSAD]

Although if we beat Scotland tonight and Ukraine win on Tuesday we will then surely be in pot 2 for the Euros as long as we do the business against Armenia.

[pineapple stu]

5-0 Ukraine now.

So were Scotland scintillating in beating Ukraine 3-0?

Or was the 1-0 defeat in Yerevan simply one of our worst performances in recent years (which is saying a lot!)?

Or is football just a weird game?

Surely there's no way we can lose on Tuesday at least. Right?

[Eirambler]

That's Ukraine's second string as well. If Kenny leaves us short in midfield again like he did over in Armenia we can absolutely lose to them again. Provided he plays with a proper midfield three we will beat them comfortably, as we would have done in Yerevan also had he set the team up correctly that day.

[JR89]

Although if we beat Scotland tonight and Ukraine win on Tuesday we will then surely be in pot 2 for the Euros as long as we do the business against Armenia.

Would need Norway to beat Serbia or draw with Serbia depending on their result against Sweden today. Can't see Sweden getting a result away to Serbia but we've a +2 goal difference as it stands.

[tetsujin1979]

Combined player stats for the entire 2022 Nations League campaign
1575817864035983360

[JR89]

Just need to find a couple of consistent goal scorers now.

1575099632375730176

[Eirambler]

When you open that up to look at the full table it's fairly clear that it's massively skewed by Scotland and Ireland playing an Armenia side who were the weakest in League B by a mile. (And of course makes it even more amazing that Kenny somehow managed to set up a team that lost to them.)

[Stuttgart88]

So, what do we need to NOT get a Nations League playoff spot?

* We are 26th ranked team after the NL has finished
* 20 automatic qualifying spots available
* 12 NL playoff spots available, but the 4 C playooff spots are of no relevance for us so there are a max. 8 spots really (4 B spots and up to 4 A spots)
* But one of Belgium, Scotland or Norway (same group, all ranked above us in NL) won't qualify directly, so they'll take up a playoff spot. So that leaves 7 spots.

So that means as long as no more than 1(?) of the teams that are ranked worse than 26th qualify automatically we'll get a play off spot.

Sweden & Romania are both behind us but have plausible expectations to qualify outright (Sweden have Austria as their 2nd seed, Romania has Israel).

So, actually it's looking quite precarious that we have a NL play-off fall back option?

[JR89]

No more than two teams below us can qualify automatically. Also but less likely is if 6/9 teams ahead of us in League B qualify automatically we'd get a League B play off.

[Stuttgart88]

So is the near certainty that one of Scotland/Norway will take up a B playoff spot relevant?

[Insidetherock]

So is the near certainty that one of Scotland/Norway will take up a B playoff spot relevant?

Best case scenario in that group, would be for Scotland and Norway to take both automatic spots... leaving Spain in the Group A play off

But lets not get into the realms of fantasy just yet

Reality is, we're probably keeping an eye on Sweden, Romania, Turkey... wouldn't put my house on Finland qualifying either

Or... and this might not be beyond the realms of possibility.. if our old nemesis Georgia were to finish second in Group A ahead of Scotland and Norway... they'd cost us two potential places in a play off

[tetsujin1979]

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