2022 Nations League - Group B1

[pineapple stu]

Hadn't realised how stuck they were in nets. Two guys pushing 40 (one of whom has just been released by his club) and two players from fairly meh SPL sides who've never been capped.

Celtic have Joe Hart in nets, but Rangers' keeper is Scottish - and is even older than the guys in the squad.

[tetsujin1979]

There's a good breakdown of the squad on wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland_national_football_team#Players
not a lot of goals in the side - McGinn is the only player in double figures, with 12
It's actually a young enough squad, average age is 26 and a half, with the two goalkeepers(39 and 37) skewing the average a little
Might be a little inexperienced too, average of only 22 caps, with Robertson(56 caps) and the two goalkeepers again(66 and 47) skewing things a little

[elatedscum]

It's a pretty good squad. They've been light on centre halves and keepers for an age (the two areas where we're probably strongest).

Personally, I think we'd probably have about 9 centre-halves that would get into their starting 11 (Egan, Duffy, Collins, Omobamidele, Clark, Manning, Lenihan, O'Shea, Dunne) and 5 keepers (Bazunu, Kelleher, Travers, Randolph, O'Leary)

Beyond that, they're pretty well set: Robertson is one of the best left backs in the world, Tierney (injured) is very good as well. You'd have Doherty ahead of Paterson at right full. Hard to imagine many of our midfield would get in ahead of the likes of McGinn, McTominay, Armstrong, Christie or Gilmour. If you were given the choice between Jason Knight and Billy Gilmour, both 2001 babies, you'd pick Gilmour. Up top, in the long run, Che Adams is a good championship striker and would probably be ahead of the likes of Robinson, Idah, Obafemi if you were picking a team tomorrow.

They don't really have any quality wingers but they get around that by playing a 5-4-1 with Robertson and Paterson as wing backs, and it also allows you to play Tierney and Robertson at the same time.

They've been pretty successful in the season. Unbeaten in the last 8, 6 competitive wins in a row, beating Denmark and Austria on the way. We're also unbeaten in 8 - but Scotland are a better side than everyone we've beaten in that spell:

Wins: Lithuania, Qatar, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg
Draws: Portugal, Serbia, Belgium, Azerbaijan
15:4 goals for, against

In my opinion, Portugal, Serbia and Belgium are better than anyone they've faced but you could argue it if you're a fan of Denmark or Poland.

Wins: Denmark, Austria, Israel, Moldova x2, Faroes
Draws: Austria, Poland
13:5 goals for, against

If I was guessing, I'd say a 0-0 or 1-1 draw is the most likely result but I'd still hope for a win

[pineapple stu]

In my opinion, Portugal, Serbia and Belgium are better than anyone they've faced but you could argue it if you're a fan of Denmark or Poland.
Certainly beating the Euro semifinalists who had won all nine group games before that, conceding just once, is a better result than our draws. I think you're being a tad harsh on Denmark there. They're a very good side.

But that won't directly matter once the players are on the pitch.

The usual groundless pre-match optimism is starting to creep in again for me, but let's take it one step at a time I guess. Armenia away first, and it'd be nice to get the "no wins in this competition" monkey off the back, while playing better than against Lithuania.

Is there a date set for our squad announcement? I know Scotland have a game a few days before us of course.

[elatedscum]

Certainly beating the Euro semifinalists who had won all nine group games before that, conceding just once, is a better result than our draws. I think you're being a tad harsh on Denmark there. They're a very good side.


It’s definitely a better result than our draws but… if we had to play a playoff to go to the World Cup next week and we could choose to face one of Belgium, Portugal, Serbia or Denmark, I’d take Denmark - that’s all I was saying.

Although Denmark were semi finalists, their run was pretty handy - lost 2 of 3 games in the groups, then faced Wales in the last 16, Czech Rep. in the quarters - there’s a dozen European teams you’d back to beat one of Russia and Finland and dispatch the Welsh and the Czechs.

Christian Eriksson’s situation was probably both the driving force behind the loss to Finland and subsequent galvanisation and overperformance thereafter.

[pineapple stu]

It’s definitely a better result than our draws but… if we had to play a playoff to go to the World Cup next week and we could choose to face one of Belgium, Portugal, Serbia or Denmark, I’d take Denmark - that’s all I was saying.
I'd probably go for Serbia tbh. A very good team, but knocked out by Scotland in the Euro playoffs and lost 3-0 to Denmark in a friendly in March. Not sure they're as clinical as Denmark either, as the 1-1 in Lansdowne suggested.

There's a dozen teams who might beat Wales for sure, but 4-0? Beat Austria 4-0 away and Israel 5-0 at home in qualifying too. And then they were very unlucky to lose against England in Wembley in the semis (very soft penalty)

I think I might take Portugal over Denmark too - another very good side but they don't come close to the sum of their parts.

Fortunately though we're not playing them, so this is all just a pleasant digression while we await the main event. :)

[Stuttgart88]

Not sure they're as clinical as Denmark either, as the 1-1 in Lansdowne suggested.Anything to downplay Bazunu's performance!

[pineapple stu]

In fairness, I've said before that was a top performance. But Serbia's finishing was also wasteful in that game. The two don't have to be mutually exclusive.

[elatedscum]

Squad announcement at 1pm. Don’t expect many surprises but there’s usually one ala Sykes last time round. Picked 28 - hard to imagine going higher than that, although I would have liked to included Sykes, McNamara, Keane and maybe an LOI player like Byrne or Mandriou

Kelleher
Bazunu
Travers

Coleman
Christie (could easily be McNamara here, 50/50 shout)

Duffy
Egan
Collins
O’Shea
Manning
Lenihan (could easily be Dunne)

McClean
Stevens

Cullen
Hendrick
Molumby
Browne

Knight
Ronan
McGrath (I’d expect Sykes here)

Ogbene
Robinson
Connolly (can’t see Connolly called up, Hourihane probably will be in the squad)

Parrott
Obafemi
Hogan
S Long (I’d expect Will Keane selected over Shane Long)

[ColourfulPeanut]

Thinking about the squad, we're desperately short in centre midfield. I think these 4 games in 10 days will expose it when we have to rotate.

If the 21s didn't have such crucial games, I'd nearly call up Killkenny and Coventry.

[JR89]

Thinking about the squad, we're desperately short in centre midfield. I think these 4 games in 10 days will expose it when we have to rotate.

If the 21s didn't have such crucial games, I'd nearly call up Killkenny and Coventry.

Well the U21s play two games the Fri and Mon of the June weekend. Good chance their campaign could be over before they even get to play Italy and we've only played the one game in June. You'd think then lads would be moved up to train with the seniors once qualification for the U21s is gone.

[Eirambler]

Certainly beating the Euro semifinalists who had won all nine group games before that, conceding just once, is a better result than our draws. I think you're being a tad harsh on Denmark there. They're a very good side.

But that won't directly matter once the players are on the pitch.

The usual groundless pre-match optimism is starting to creep in again for me, but let's take it one step at a time I guess. Armenia away first, and it'd be nice to get the "no wins in this competition" monkey off the back, while playing better than against Lithuania.

Is there a date set for our squad announcement? I know Scotland have a game a few days before us of course.

Probably worth bearing in mind though that Denmark were already home and hosed for qualification before that game which probably impacted on their performance a bit.

[pineapple stu]

True. Flip side of course is that maybe they really wanted to end on ten wins out of ten. Not many teams go through qualification with a 100% record

[SkStu]

Ukraine looking fairly handy...

[Insidetherock]

Aye, whats our best hope?

Beat Wales next week, go mad on the ****, and turn up to Dublin half cut

or

lose to Wales and face Ireland on a massive downer?

Reckon a few of the Scots might clock off after this if they lose too

[pineapple stu]

Aye, whats our best hope?
Bit of extra time here would do nicely.

[SkStu]

Aye, whats our best hope?

Beat Wales next week, go mad on the ****, and turn up to Dublin half cut

or

lose to Wales and face Ireland on a massive downer?

Reckon a few of the Scots might clock off after this if they lose too

I can hear the excuses already if we win :D

"Ah sure look, they were obviously coasting after they made it to Qatar, the Ireland game meant nothing to them"
"Ah sure look, they gave their all against Wales and came up short and had nothing left. Massive downer. It wasnt the real Ukraine"
"Ah sure look, Scotland just showed up for the playoff, it was straight to holiday mode after that went pear shaped"

:D

[paul_oshea]

I think that result suits us the best. Robertson looked exhausted there at the end. Feel for the Scots but the better team won, Wales will see what they need to do and be confident now

[paul_oshea]

I can hear the excuses already if we win :D

"Ah sure look, they were obviously coasting after they made it to Qatar, the Ireland game meant nothing to them"
"Ah sure look, they gave their all against Wales and came up short and had nothing left. Massive downer. It wasnt the real Ukraine"
"Ah sure look, Scotland just showed up for the playoff, it was straight to holiday mode after that went pear shaped"

:D

And what excuse will you have? Ah sur look we started with a load of young lads, ah sur look at the stats we had loads of possession, ah sure on another day that one off the crossbar, ah sure look Kenny's had a very difficult time of it with squads first time he's only had a full bill of health so needs time, ah sure didn't the new lad show well(new lad not heard of again in 3 years, ah sur those lines werr crooked but there was just enough hair on yer man's legs

:D

[SkStu]

And what excuse will you have? Ah sur look we started with a load of young lads, ah sur look at the stats we had loads of possession, ah sure on another day that one off the crossbar, ah sure look Kenny's had a very difficult time of it with squads first time he's only had a full bill of health so needs time, ah sure didn't the new lad show well(new lad not heard of again in 3 years, ah sur those lines werr crooked but there was just enough hair on yer man's legs

:D

At least 4 of those are in my back pocket. :D

[Razors left peg]

This group is definitely going to be a great test of where we actually are.

[Insidetherock]

Excuses if we win?

I couldn't care less if we took two 1-0"s with deflections off Andy Robertson and Zinchenkos are. Ill be delighted ☺

[tetsujin1979]

I see we've reached the "paul_oshea starts posting again" stage of the international window

[EAFC_rdfl]

I see we've reached the "paul_oshea starts posting again" stage of the international window
pre-season for the LOI teams in Europe posting

[geysir]

And what excuse will you have? Ah sur look we started with a load of young lads, ah sur look at the stats we had loads of possession, ah sure on another day that one off the crossbar, ah sure look Kenny's had a very difficult time of it with squads first time he's only had a full bill of health so needs time, ah sure didn't the new lad show well(new lad not heard of again in 3 years, ah sur those lines werr crooked but there was just enough hair on yer man's legs

:D
So if Ireland win you are stating here loud and clear that you will not attempt to reduce the significance of the result with references to what can only be termed as gobshítery?

[tetsujin1979]

Scotland and Armenia kicking off at 5
line ups here: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/match/2034511--armenia-vs-scotland/

[Diggs246]

Scotland and Armenia kicking off at 5
line ups here: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/match/2034511--armenia-vs-scotland/

Who are we cheering for?

[Eirambler]

Probably a draw. A Scotland win makes it hard for us to finish in the top 2. An Armenia win puts us in real danger of finishing last in the group.

[pineapple stu]

Probably fair alright.

You have to imagine we can beat Armenia at home - in that case, a draw gives us best chance of a Euro playoff spot.

If we can't beat Armenia at home, then we deserve feck all anyway.

[pineapple stu]

1-0 Armenia...

So was our defeat out there not so bad after all, or was our win on Saturday over-rated? :p

(I think an Armenia win is the worst possible result)

[pineapple stu]

Scotland equalise.

Happy for it to finish now.

[joey B]

Armenia red card…..

[Insidetherock]

yeah 1-1 draw would be best for us

[joey B]

2-1 Scotland,they might score a few here now…

[Insidetherock]

look, if Scotland win, they move to 6... us and Armenia on 3

Even if we lose tonight, if we beat Armenia in Sept it keeps us safe in the B path, and gives us a 3rd seed draw for the Euros.. which was all we were going to get anyway because unless we get an unlikely win tonight, Ukraine will have wrapped up.

Staying in B is the absolute minimum goal here

[joey B]

Armenia might ship 6 or 7 here!

[JR89]

Armenia red card…..

Idiot should have been banned anyway for throwing a water bottle at the linesman in the previous game against Scotland.

[Eirambler]

look, if Scotland win, they move to 6... us and Armenia on 3

Even if we lose tonight, if we beat Armenia in Sept it keeps us safe in the B path, and gives us a 3rd seed draw for the Euros.. which was all we were going to get anyway because unless we get an unlikely win tonight, Ukraine will have wrapped up.

Staying in B is the absolute minimum goal here

A point at home to Armenia may well end up being enough to finish third and stay in B, because it's hard to see Armenia getting anything off Ukraine in their other game and their goal difference is terrible.

But third is a poor outcome because it puts us at risk of not getting a playoff place for the Euros, which is the main prize here. Puts a lot of pressure on finishing in the top two in the qualification group.

[pineapple stu]

It's head-to-head that's the first tiebreak - if we end up on four points each by drawing that final match, we're last.

[Eirambler]

It's head-to-head that's the first tiebreak - if we end up on four points each by drawing that final match, we're last.

Ah, thought it was goal difference. Yes, need to beat them then, or else get a point somewhere else and draw with Armenia.

But really, we should have been aiming much higher than this in any case.

[Insidetherock]

We need to beat Armenia.. not just for the point, but to show progression.. finishing the group with anything less will be letting the air back out of the balloon again

four point from the last two games in Scotland and home to Armenia will put us on 8 points, and hope Scotland dont get two against Ukraine

[Diggs246]

If we win both games and finish on 10
Will we get a playoff?

[pineapple stu]

You'd imagine so.

Remember there's the possibility of being pulled up to the A League playoff as well.

We were third last time and made the Euro playoffs. The North were fourth and made them

[Eirambler]

There were fewer teams in each division last time though - 12 in A and 12 in B rather than 16 in each like there is now. If we win the last two that would almost certainly get us second though, which is pretty much a guaranteed playoff. I'd say 4 points won't be enough for second though, because if Scotland don't beat Ukraine the first time around they'll probably be playing a Ukraine team that have already won the group in the second game between them.

So we'll more likely end up third unless we win both and would just have to wait and see if that's enough for the playoffs.

[pineapple stu]

Oh true that; forgot it was going back to the first NL alright.

There's 16 teams in League A and 16 in League B - if all 21 qualifiers through the groups (plus Germany as hosts) come from those two Leagues (and there'll probably be 1/2 upsets) then there's 11 spots left over for the League A/B playoffs. That's five League B teams who won't make it (more if any League C teams qualify by right)

So third would give us good odds, but yeah, not as clear-cut as I'd remembered.

And of course we could qualify for the thing outright, although if you look at Ukraine as a moderate second-seed side, we took one point in two games from them, which obviously would seriously hinder us in a qualification group.

[tetsujin1979]

Combined player stats from the four games
Nathan Collins might be better than we thought
1537043287961477120

[Diggs246]

He's a ferrari. Burnley will lose him within a month
Anyone else worried about parrotts pace?
Knight was amazing last night. Bringing on conor for him was insane.

I also thought Darragh lenihan was absolutely outstanding.... better then oshea.

Molomby was like a different player. No more headless chicken stuff

[Insidetherock]

The other fly in the play off ointment, could be Russia not playing

There's a decent case to make that results against "top seeds" in the group should be cast aside, as teams in Russias group didn't have to play a "top seed"

[Eirambler]

Russia were the second seeds in that group, Iceland were top seeds. Maybe they'll remove results against second seeds - that would be our win against Scotland chalked off!

I don't know how they're going to work that one out, it feels like someone will end up feeling hard done by whatever happens.

Also, is there a reason why Belarus are being allowed to compete - surely the same sanctions should apply to them as applies to Russia?

[geysir]

Afaics as regards B2 Iceland's group minus Russia, the overall ranking is being determined a bit differently, though I would have preferred the standard 3 nil victory, sadly that's not the case. It looks like the B2 teams overall ranking is based on a ratio.
e.g. Iceland played 3, points 3, are ranked higher than Ireland played 4 points 4.
You guys can take it to CAS but I am assuaged.