Evan Ferguson F Brighton b.2004

[tetsujin1979]

If he scores where would he rank amongst youngest goal scorers?
Third, behind Robbie Keane V Malta in 1998 aged 18 years and 98 days, and Kevin O'Flanagan V Norway in 1937 aged 18 years and 150 days

[SkStu]

Do Bohs have a sell-on? Even 10% of what Ferguson may go for would be game changing money in the League of Ireland.

Don't know if this was answered Eirambler but Bohs do have a 10% sell-on clause for Ferguson.

[yurt]

That 10% could end up knocking a decade off the mortgage for the new stadium.

I'm in no rush to see him leaving Brighton but I'm so intrigued to see what the valuation put on him is. Transfermrkt currently have him at 10m. Not hard to imagine the figuring continuing to rise if himself and Brighton keep going the way they have been.

Big game for Brighton on Saturday vs Brentford, hoping he gets a start.

[Eirambler]

He was at £1m up until the update a week ago. In reality £50m probably wouldn't get him this summer (I very much doubt he'll want to move anywhere anyway). If he continues his current trajectory and has even average luck with injuries I wouldn't be surprised if it's a nine figure transfer fee when it happens.

[pineapple stu]

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a nine figure transfer fee when it happens.
That would make him twice as valuable as Erling Haaland.

[tetsujin1979]

from Ben Jacobs of Caught Offside, via football365: https://www.football365.com/news/man-utd-chelsea-five-clubs-tracking-brighton-sensation-players-priority-is-revealed

‘Manchester United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Barcelona and Roma have all scouted Ferguson. This is normal since clubs know they have to track this type of player early and start building relationships ready for when they choose to move,’ Jacobs wrote for Caught Offside. (https://caughtoffside.substack.com/p/exclusive-ben-jacobs-takeover-liverpool)

[Olé Olé]

from Ben Jacobs of Caught Offside, via football365: https://www.football365.com/news/man-utd-chelsea-five-clubs-tracking-brighton-sensation-players-priority-is-revealed

I love hearing these stories and so do all Irish fans. We aren't used to it. But it is no surprise really. Strikers of his profile in terms of overall profile (age, ability, skillset etc) are nowhere to be found. Is the last Premiership striker to burst onto the scene with an incredible profile like this Mason Greenwood?

[tetsujin1979]

There's a saying in journalism, if the opposite of a story is more interesting, then it's not much of a story
I've be more surprised if United, Roma, etc, were not monitoring Ferguson to be honest. They monitor pretty much every player across the top five leagues in Europe.

[seanfhear]

There's a saying in journlaism, if the opposite of a story is more interesting, then it's not much of a story
I've be more surprised if United, Roma, etc, were not monitoring Ferguson to be honest. They monitor pretty much every player across the top five leagues in Europe.
I'm monitoring him myself and I couldn't afford to pay a week of his wages ! !

[ColourfulPeanut]

That would make him twice as valuable as Erling Haaland.
I don't think he'll move for 9 figures but Haaland was worth way more than his fee. He had a low release clause put in specifically to facilitate a move when he signed for Dortmund. Bit of an anamoly in the market and can't really compare him to anybody.

[pineapple stu]

Fair point. Though if/when Ferguson signs a new contract, will he not have a release fee inserted?

[Demesne Lad]

Ferguson analysed:
Coaches' Voice | Evan Ferguson: Premier League player watch (coachesvoice.com) (https://www.coachesvoice.com/cv/evan-ferguson-brighton-scout-report/)

[nigel-harps1954]

If he went for £50m he'd be Brightons third most expensive departure ever. Also think if they were offered £50m tomorrow they'd take it.

[irishfan86]

I think you’re in the ballpark Nigel. Gakpo strikes me as a guy who one would think might have a similar valuation. A longer track record than Ferguson but at a lower level.

I think a smart move from a big club would be to buy Ferguson for around £40-60-million and then let him stay on loan at Brighton for another full season to continue his development.

[CSAD]

If he went for £50m he'd be Brightons third most expensive departure ever. Also think if they were offered £50m tomorrow they'd take it.

They’d only take it if Ferguson was pushing to leave also. As high as that is they could get it close to triple figures if he has an even better season next season plus he’s now an important player for them so whatever way you look at it there’s no reason to sell him now.

[osarusan]

They’d only take it if Ferguson was pushing to leave also. As high as that is they could get it close to triple figures if he has an even better season next season plus he’s now an important player for them so whatever way you look at it there’s no reason to sell him now.

And if he had a bad season they'd regret not taking the money.

For a club like Brighton, a transfer fee of that size is always a reason to sell.

[Exgrad]

Would there be many clubs willing to pay 50m for a player and then hang on for a season for him to arrive? Cant really think of anything similar, Sesko maybe but that was between the the red bull clubs, so internal accounting really.

[CSAD]

And if he had a bad season they'd regret not taking the money.

For a club like Brighton, a transfer fee of that size is always a reason to sell.

In most cases they may do but an 18 year old showing the potential Evan has I doubt it.

Bar someone uncharacteristic happening I can’t see the 50m price tag going down unless he gets a season ending injury or something like that.

[nigel-harps1954]

Think there's a bit of green tinted glasses going on. Ferguson is a special talent, but not a £50m player just yet.

[Razors left peg]

Think there's a bit of green tinted glasses going on. Ferguson is a special talent, but not a £50m player just yet.

He may not be yet, but in 2 years if he keeps this trajectory going he could be $100 Million. If as a 19 year old next season he has 20 Premiership goals his value goes into the stratosphere. So teams if they could get him for $50 million now might see that as cheap.

Antony cost United £82 million and he had average enough stats in a weaker league. Ferguson is proving himself in the Premiership much younger.

I think £50 million would be a bargain for him right now... but I also think Brighton turn it down. They turned down more money for Caicedo from Arsenal in the January window. Mudryk cost Chelsea a lot more than 50 million and he was also unproven in the league.

If anything, in an Era where a full back could cost £50 million, I think we are unvaluing what this kid is worth.

[CSAD]

Think there's a bit of green tinted glasses going on. Ferguson is a special talent, but not a £50m player just yet.

I don’t see where you get the impression it’s green tinted glasses involved?

No one is saying he’s a 50m pound player. It when you add in his potential given what he’s done at 18 years old and the amount of money thrown around in the PL then yes he’s worth 50m pound plus.

[John83]

Transer fees have gotten so stupid in recent years that I haven't a clue what is or isn't a 50 million player. Ferguson might be it though, green tinted glasses or no. Scoring goals like that so young... I think clubs will drop more on riskier prospects this summer.

[CraftyToePoke]

I'd be grand with him staying fit and not turning out a waster, score a few for Brighton or similar & the odd one for us, to be honest. I'd be fine with that for a good while.

[elatedscum]

Would there be many clubs willing to pay 50m for a player and then hang on for a season for him to arrive? Cant really think of anything similar, Sesko maybe but that was between the the red bull clubs, so internal accounting really.

Liverpool did it with Keita. Or at least they agreed the deal 12 months in advance to make sure they got him. Also from an RB club


I think you’re in the ballpark Nigel. Gakpo strikes me as a guy who one would think might have a similar valuation. A longer track record than Ferguson but at a lower level.

I do think given the choice between signing Gakpo and Ferguson - I’d still take Gakpo. On one hand, Gakpo still has a lot of growth and upside and could be a truly world class striker. Evan on the other hand, probably has a higher likelihood of being the best striker in the league or the world. At 18, it’s hard to imagine his ceiling. So even if Gakpo ends up being the better footballer 8 times out of 10, and 1 time out of 10, Gakpo really struggles, the other 1 time in 10 - Evan is just a monster of the Kane, Haaland, Lewandowski variety.

If you look at the money that Chelsea have spent on youngsters, Evan is better than all of them. 85m for Wesley Fofana, I’d rather have Evan. Same with plenty of United’s signings. So yeah, very hard to figure his valuation.

[Olé Olé]

I don’t see where you get the impression it’s green tinted glasses involved?

No one is saying he’s a 50m pound player. It when you add in his potential given what he’s done at 18 years old and the amount of money thrown around in the PL then yes he’s worth 50m pound plus.

A quick Google shows a heap of tabloids and football news (more like gossip) sites reporting that Ferguson is being followed by Barcelona, Man United, Bayern Munich etc etc These are international sites with international journalists. In this context, the speculation on here in terms of price reaching 50m is hardly green tinted glasses.

This is one instance of a player where anyone bandying about the green tinted glasses accusation about him is p*ssing against the wind.

It all makes me very nervous because I'll get tense until he scores his next goal with a paranoia after each of the last few that he'd never do it again!

[JR89]

I don’t see where you get the impression it’s green tinted glasses involved?

No one is saying he’s a 50m pound player. It when you add in his potential given what he’s done at 18 years old and the amount of money thrown around in the PL then yes he’s worth 50m pound plus.

Sure United were quoted 50m for Sesko before one Redbull club "bought" him from the other Redbull club. He scored five goals and three assists in 966 minutes in the Austrian league when United were quoted that.

In half that minutes played and playing in the toughest league in the world Ferguson has three goals and two assists.

[pineapple stu]

Big difference between being quoted £50m and actually paying it though, I'd have thought?

He's ultimately moved for £20m.

[BOOMSHAKALAKA]

Although we'd like players playing in the champions league and all that, we've seen before that it can be risky to move to the 'big' clubs. Sitting on the bench won't help his development. At the end of the day, Brighton are a good club with good structures. It would do him no harm to stay there, nail down his starting position and bang in the goals for them.

[JR89]

Big difference between being quoted £50m and actually paying it though, I'd have thought?

He's ultimately moved for £20m.

Yeah, from one RB club to another RB club which means nothing really. Just a way for them to move a few quid to Salzburg and get the big transfer fee for Leipzig is all. If United wanted him it would have costed them the 50m.

[pineapple stu]

Maybe, tut the point on United is that they didn't deem him worth 50m, so they moved on. An initial quote isn't necessarily what a player's actually worth.

[CSAD]

Big difference between being quoted £50m and actually paying it though, I'd have thought?

He's ultimately moved for £20m.

Like it’s been said it was one RB club to another. If it was Dortmund for instance it may have been 30+

Plus like it’s also been said Ferguson is far more proven as he’s shown he can hack it in a top league whereas with Sesko, while he is a fantastic player with a very high ceiling, we have little evidence he can hack at that level and you are in the end just buying him based on potential. It could be Haaland and be generational or a Dabur and be so bad that the new club moves him on only 3 months into the season!

I do get the green tinted stuff in the past but this is surely one case where we can safely say the hype is genuinely deserved?

[JR89]

Maybe, tut the point on United is that they didn't deem him worth 50m, so they moved on. An initial quote isn't necessarily what a player's actually worth.

No player is worth the money they go but at the end of the day the player is worth whatever the selling club deems him worth. And if teams really want Evan Ferguson the bidding will have to start at 40m to even get Brighton a bit interested.

[pineapple stu]

I do get the green tinted stuff in the past but this is surely one case where we can safely say the hype is genuinely deserved?
Well so far I'm saying (a) I don't see him moving for £100m plus; I think most people are in agreement with that and (b) there's a big difference between a club quoting £50m for a player and a player actually being worth £50m; I think that's reasonable too.

Ferguson is absolutely a completely different prospect to Connolly/Idah/Parrott so far as I can see. I've earlier said the buzz about him feels similar to a young Robbie Keane. Though let's be careful about saying he's proven he can hack it in a higher league than Sisko; he's only scored three league goals so far (his Cup and international goals have all been against lower level opposition, though it's of course great he can score regularly against them), and Salzburg have a reputation for unearthing gems of players which probably helps them too. (Dabbur was 27 leaving Salzburg and though I know the point you're making, it's a bit of an unfair comparison)


at the end of the day the player is worth whatever the selling club deems him worth.
I don't agree with that - what the buying club will pay is also definitely a factor. Plenty more fish in the sea ultimately.

[Razors left peg]

I don't agree with that - what the buying club will pay is also definitely a factor. Plenty more fish in the sea ultimately.

Wilf Zaha proof of that. Was priced out of a move from Palace for years by the price Palace set.

[CSAD]

Well so far I'm saying (a) I don't see him moving for £100m plus; I think most people are in agreement with that and (b) there's a big difference between a club quoting £50m for a player and a player actually being worth £50m; I think that's reasonable too.

Ferguson is absolutely a completely different prospect to Connolly/Idah/Parrott so far as I can see. I've earlier said the buzz about him feels similar to a young Robbie Keane. Though let's be careful about saying he's proven he can hack it in a higher league than Sisko; he's only scored three league goals so far (his Cup and international goals have all been against lower level opposition, though it's of course great he can score regularly against them), and Salzburg have a reputation for unearthing gems of players which probably helps them too. (Dabbur was 27 leaving Salzburg and though I know the point you're making, it's a bit of an unfair comparison)


I don't agree with that - what the buying club will pay is also definitely a factor. Plenty more fish in the sea ultimately.

I agree with him not being 100+ now. The view of how much a player is worth is subjective, the only thing we have to go on is what a club pays for them. Buying a player is like buying a computer, a lot of factors go into the amount more than just the players ability, things like age, the league he plays in etc all come into it.

It’s just everything about him is quality, I don’t see a clear weakness in his game so far. Well he has, week in week out Ferguson is playing a higher quality of player than Sesko is facing. And yes Salzburg do but you only ever hear about the players who made it and don’t see the players who struggle, he may make it ofcourse but I wouldn’t say I’ve seen enough to say he’s definitely going to be the next Haaland, he could well be but again buying him would carry an element of risk that wasn’t the case with Haaland. It is a fair comparison, it shows the range of where this could go for a player like Sesko, I am confident he’s going to be better than Dabbur though but I don’t think it’s a given he’ll be a star like it was with Haaland.

[Olé Olé]

No player is worth the money they go but at the end of the day the player is worth whatever the selling club deems him worth. And if teams really want Evan Ferguson the bidding will have to start at 40m to even get Brighton a bit interested.

A player is worth whatever the selling club is willing to accept and the buying club willing to pay.

When that agreement is found we will know his worth but your assertion is accurate in my view. I can't see Brighton entering a negotiation with a club that says 20 and maybe they do at 30 but they don't stay there.

Have to repeat my point here that the green tinted glasses trope should be left out of all discussions regarding Ferguson and those using it are reading Foot.ie, ybig.ie and nothing else for their football media consumption.

[Yard of Pace]

Evan is just a monster of the Kane, Haaland, Lewandowski variety.

.

This is the truth. At 18, Lewandowski was trying to break into an Ekstrakalasa team (I can tell you it's not a very high level), Kane was going out on loan down the leagues, Haaland was still in Norway (?), Ferguson is scoring goals for a EPL team pushing for European football and scoring for Ireland.

As someone said, he doesn't have weaknesses, just strengths that are visibly improving all the time.

Even right now, even if he never got any better and stayed at this level, he'd be worth about 35m. Probably more.

[pineapple stu]

Yeah Haaland was with Molde at 18. But Dortmund got him for 20m from Salzburg at 19, when he was setting goalscoring records in the Champions League. So I don't think the assertions that bidding would start at 40m for Ferguson are all that well-founded really. At the moment anyway. And I'm more interested in watching how he develops this year rather than worry about his transfer value

[SkStu]

Agree with the last sentence Stu. Would like to see how he finishes up at the end of this season and actually would prefer to wait until the end of next season to see how he continues to develop before any talk of transfers and value.

He has massive potential and it’s genuinely exciting to think how good he can be (and in many respects how good he already is) but he’s got a few more milestones to reach, I think, over a longer timeframe than just three months. If he continues as is I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move in a year or two for €70m+.

[John83]

...I don’t see a clear weakness in his game so far...
Someone posted link to an interesting analysis of him earlier. The only negative observation I recall from it is that he has a strong bias towards shooting with power over precision, sometimes incorrectly. But then I seem to recall a similar observation of Marcus Rashford a couple of years ago - Man Utd were trying to coach it out of him - and look at him now.

[SkStu]

It's Fergie time!! Go on kid!

[pineapple stu]

Sweet!

First league goal in 2½ months, surprisingly. Was close to writing him off... :p

[texidub]

What a feckin' touch for the goal! Class.

[joey B]

1643331521619587076

Lovely finish.

[Razors left peg]

1643331521619587076

Lovely finish.

Boys a Genius!

[Yard of Pace]

Boys a Genius!

Managers should be paying the FAI for the chance of fielding a team with him up top.

[Olé Olé]

Boys a Genius!

It's fairly clear he is. Not many strikers have the audacity or ability to attempt that. It's the goal of an elite striker really isn't it? Not to mind an 18 year old...

[Olé Olé]

Someone posted link to an interesting analysis of him earlier. The only negative observation I recall from it is that he has a strong bias towards shooting with power over precision, sometimes incorrectly. But then I seem to recall a similar observation of Marcus Rashford a couple of years ago - Man Utd were trying to coach it out of him - and look at him now.

I have to laugh. I read that article and agreed and whilst his goal tonight doesn't disprove the analysis it was pretty precise and not very powerful!

[texidub]

It's fairly clear he is. Not many strikers have the audacity or ability to attempt that. It's the goal of an elite striker really isn't it? Not to mind an 18 year old...

he makes it look easy.. top class stuff.

[JR89]

Another few million added to Brighton's valuation for the lad.