World Cup Qualifying 2018, UEFA Group D - Opponent Watch

[writerbk1969]

With the Taffs winning it puts extra pressure as we are now four points behind. Don't expect a goal rush tonight. If we do go out I hope the Taff's get Portugal and get hammered

[DannyInvincible]

A straightforward enough win for Wales in Tbilisi. They made Georgia look bang average, especially in the second half. And without Bale.

We made Georgia look like world-beaters. :rolleyes:

[Fixer82]

Wes starting. I hope that doesn’t mean he won’t start V Wales

[DannyInvincible]

Serbia take the lead in Austria. Ideally, we'd want Serbia to lose as there's still a mathematical chance we can finish top.

[geysir]

A straightforward enough win for Wales in Tbilisi. They made Georgia look bang average, especially in the second half. And without Bale.

We made Georgia look like world-beaters. :rolleyes:

Wales were cráp in this game. Sublime skill for their goal but otherwise cráp.

[DannyInvincible]

Austria and Serbia are 1-1 at half-time.

Results in group I going to plan so far.

[Fizzer]

Another from Austria would be great

[DannyInvincible]

Croatia and Ukraine have the taken the lead in their games in group I. That's bad news for us, as the group I runner-up will almost certainly be beyond our reach if things stay as they are.

[DannyInvincible]

Austria take the lead against Serbia. We'd finish top now if we beat Wales and Serbia lose to Georgia. If Georgia and Serbia were to draw and we beat Wales, we'd need to improve our goal difference by +5 to finish ahead of Serbia as we'd be even on points with them then.

[Fizzer]

Is it goal difference Danny yeah?,not head to head?

[DannyInvincible]

Serbia equalise.

[DannyInvincible]

Is it goal difference Danny yeah?,not head to head?

Aye, goal difference is the next differential after points. Then it's goals scored. Tie-breaking criteria here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification#Tiebreakers

[DannyInvincible]

Austria back in front. 3-2.

[Fizzer]

Winner austria!!!

[DannyInvincible]

Finland have equalised against Croatia. Brilliant.

That means a draw between Ukraine and Croatia will ensure we finish ahead of the group I runner-up if we beat Wales.

[fanaticfan]

Why they say just there on rte that we will only finish second if we beat wales. What if Serbia lose and we beat Wales. We finish top of the group

[nigel-harps1954]

Why they say just there on rte that we will only finish second if we beat wales. What if Serbia lose and we beat Wales. We finish top of the group

5-0 win will put us top if Serbia draw....


..stranger things have happened.

[samhaydenjr]

Why they say just there on rte that we will only finish second if we beat wales. What if Serbia lose and we beat Wales. We finish top of the group

What if Serbia lose...at home...to Georgia. I guess it could happen but nobody's counting on it as a realistic option. It's so frustrating to know that even if we had drawn against Serbia at home, we'd be playing for an automatic spot on Sunday

[geysir]

Finland have equalised against Croatia. Brilliant.

That means a draw between Ukraine and Croatia will ensure we finish ahead of the group I runner-up if we beat Wales.

A draw between Ukraine and Croatia is the least likely result.
I'd say if Ireland beat Wales they will go through to the play offs, probably Group H is the most susceptible to the 2nd placed team, finishing in last place ignominy.

[samhaydenjr]

Ok, so I think this is what needs to happen in five other groups for us to get ahead of their second-placed team, if we manage to win in Wales: (Group A is still in play but with two rounds of games left and two potential last-placed teams, it's still a complicated picture)

Group C – Northern Ireland lose against Norway, 4-goal swing against them

Group E- i)Denmark lose, Montenegro fail to win, 6-goal swing against Denmark
Group E-ii) Denmark lose, Montenegro win, 2-goal swing against Montenegro
Group F – Scotland fail to win against Slovenia
Group I – Croatia and Ukraine draw
Group H – Bosnia fail to win both games and a)Greece fails to beat Cyprus, b) they do beat Cyprus with a 3-goal swing (possibly 2-goal) or c) they somehow fail to beat Gibraltar and Bosnia pick up enough points to stay ahead of them

[DannyInvincible]

A draw between Ukraine and Croatia is the least likely result.
I'd say if Ireland beat Wales they will go through to the play offs, probably Group H is the most susceptible to the 2nd placed team, finishing in last place ignominy.

Why do you think a draw is the least likely result? I'd say it's likely enough. They're both fairly evenly matched. Croatia are ranked 18th and Ukraine are ranked 24th. Croatia beat Ukraine 1-0 last time, although the Croatians had home advantage. Ukraine will have home advantage this time, so that may offset the slight edge Croatia have over them in ability.

I think we've a pretty good chance of Scotland failing to beat Slovenia in Ljubljana. I'd say there's a better chance of that happening than Greece failing to beat Cyprus in Nicosia, but the latter is very possible too. I think we can be confident of B&H failing to beat Belgium though. A B&H win in that fixture would be a major surprise, even if they're at home. Belgium are unbeaten all campaign and beat B&H 4-0 first time round in Brussels.


Group H – Bosnia fail to win both games and a)Greece fails to beat Cyprus, b) they do beat Cyprus with a 3-goal swing (possibly 2-goal) or c) they somehow fail to beat Gibraltar and Bosnia pick up enough points to stay ahead of them

We don't need B&H to fail to win both their final two games. We just need B&H to fail to beat Belgium (and Greece to fail to beat Cyprus, of course). B&H are on 14 points in their group right now. If B&H draw against Belgium tomorrow, it'll leave them on 15 points with one game to play. If they lose, they'll remain on 14 obviously. Even if they then beat Estonia in their final game, they'll only have a maximum of 18 points, which will translate to 12 points in the runners-up table; one less than our runners-up table total of 13 points, if we beat Wales.

[DannyInvincible]

Marko Arnautović, whose father is Serbian, looked devastated both times he scored against Serbia earlier.

Video of his goal to put Austria 2-1 ahead: https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/916435216595644416

Video of his late goal which secured the 3-2 victory for Austria: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x63j6qf

Edit: Actually, it seems he wasn't awarded the third goal as Schaub is listed as the scorer on FIFA's website (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/matches/round=276483/match=300332002/index.html). Definitely looked like Arnautović had gotten a touch, but maybe not. He still looked pretty subdued about it.

[geysir]

Why do you think a draw is the least likely result? I'd say it's likely enough. They're both fairly evenly matched. Croatia are ranked 18th and Ukraine are ranked 24th. Croatia beat Ukraine 1-0 last time, although the Croatians had home advantage. Ukraine will have home advantage this time, so that may offset the slight edge Croatia have over them in ability.
Using a FIFA ranking position as a support for an opinion has about the same value as using a quote from Sepp:)
Draws at this level happen less often. In this game a draw is no use to either team, both teams will be out for the win.

Croatia have crashed badly from an imperious position in the latter half of this campaign.
This has happened to them before in the WC 2014 qual campaign.
Croatia are superior to the Ukraine, but they have to recover their mojo for this game.

I think our chances to beat Wales are slim so I'm not that bothered about the play off permutations but if we do manage to win then I think we´ll be in the play offs.

[TrapAPony]

.

I think our chances to beat Wales are slim so I'm not that bothered about the play off permutations but if we do manage to win then I think we´ll be in the play offs.

..and the way that is at the moment it looks like it could be Italy, Portugal and possibly Croatia. If France don't win today v Bulgaria then it is quite likely they will end up there also. Don't think we have any chance in the playoffs either tbh.

[DannyInvincible]

Using a FIFA ranking position as a support for an opinion has about the same value as using a quote from Sepp:)

Ha, it was a rough guide to help demonstrate their similar level. I could use other stats. They both have 17 points after five wins, two draws and a two losses. In the Elo rating system, Croatia are ranked 17th and Ukraine are ranked 30th; a slightly wider gap than that of the FIFA rankings, but not a gulf.


Draws at this level happen less often. In this game a draw is no use to either team, both teams will be out for the win.

Croatia have crashed badly from an imperious position in the latter half of this campaign.
This has happened to them before in the WC 2014 qual campaign.
Croatia are superior to the Ukraine, but they have to recover their mojo for this game.

I see Croatia sacked their manager this morning: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/oct/07/croatia-sack-ante-cacic-appoint-zlatko-dalic-before-crunch-world-cup-qualifier

Croatia's apparent meltdown could be another "equalising" factor.

[Cymro]

I see Croatia sacked their manager this morning: https://www.theguardian.com/football...-cup-qualifier

Croatia's apparent meltdown could be another "equalising" factor.

What a ridiculous decision. Either sack him before the double header or after, not during. The assistant basically has to go with his game plan now but without owning it.

They could well lose out now.

[Cymro]

As for our game, well, I don't mean to dampen the spirits on here :D but our record is that we have lost once in 21 qualifiers and have 4 points from our last 2 games without Bale. All 3 results possible though.

[elroy]

As for our game, well, I don't mean to dampen the spirits on here :D but our record is that we have lost once in 21 qualifiers and have 4 points from our last 2 games without Bale. All 3 results possible though.

I don't think our spirits or expectations are that high to be fair. Wales are favourites despite losing Bale. We haven't exactly won too many big games away from home in last 20 years. A strange positive is that we have nothing to lose, we must win. We seem to play better in those scenarios whereas a draw might do Wales.

If I were to gamble, 0-0 seems likely result. If we get Wales that played in first half against Austria then we have a very good chance.

[DannyInvincible]

What a ridiculous decision. Either sack him before the double header or after, not during. The assistant basically has to go with his game plan now but without owning it.

They could well lose out now.

Indeed, that it might swing a significant advantage in favour of Ukraine - who will also be at home - is a concern.

[elroy]

Hopefully the result Monday night sees us in a playoff but I can't help thinking this group has been a real missed opportunity, particularly taking into account the position we were in six months ago. A tough group but no superstar first seeds, topping this group was well within the reach of this team and its such a shame how softly we let go that opportunity.

[CraftyToePoke]

Hopefully the result Monday night sees us in a playoff but I can't help thinking this group has been a real missed opportunity, particularly taking into account the position we were in six months ago. A tough group but no superstar first seeds, topping this group was well within the reach of this team and its such a shame how softly we let go that opportunity.

Nutshell.

[Cymro]

I don't think our spirits or expectations are that high to be fair. Wales are favourites despite losing Bale. We haven't exactly won too many big games away from home in last 20 years. A strange positive is that we have nothing to lose, we must win. We seem to play better in those scenarios whereas a draw might do Wales.

If I were to gamble, 0-0 seems likely result. If we get Wales that played in first half against Austria then we have a very good chance.

If we play like we did 1st half against Austria or 2nd half v Georgia at home we will lose. Any other half of football in this campaign, we have a pretty good chance.

[Cymro]

Hopefully the result Monday night sees us in a playoff but I can't help thinking this group has been a real missed opportunity, particularly taking into account the position we were in six months ago. A tough group but no superstar first seeds, topping this group was well within the reach of this team and its such a shame how softly we let go that opportunity.

Imagine everyone is thinking that, probably even Georgia thinking they missed a chance to nab a play-off to be honest.

[DannyInvincible]

I don't think our spirits or expectations are that high to be fair. Wales are favourites despite losing Bale. We haven't exactly won too many big games away from home in last 20 years. A strange positive is that we have nothing to lose, we must win. We seem to play better in those scenarios whereas a draw might do Wales.

If I were to gamble, 0-0 seems likely result. If we get Wales that played in first half against Austria then we have a very good chance.

This is pretty much spot on. I'm not expecting us to win. I'm just hoping we give it our all - like we did in Paris in 2009 or against Italy at the Euros - as we have absolutely nothing to lose; we'll see what happens and hopefully won't have regrets afterwards over having not given it our best shot.

Having nothing to lose lessens the pressure and eases the nerves. I'll still be despondent if we don't win, but I think I'm able to look forward to it a bit more when the expectations are lower. The fact we have a few potential worst runner-up escape-routes going for us in at least three other groups also has me feeling a bit less anxious.

[geysir]

I see Croatia sacked their manager this morning: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/oct/07/croatia-sack-ante-cacic-appoint-zlatko-dalic-before-crunch-world-cup-qualifier

I didn't see that, interesting reaction but there is a precedent. In their 2014 WC qual meltdown they also sacked their manager just before the play offs, rallied just enough to beat Iceland and make the WC Finals. That's maybe the kick they need this time. There are some seriously talented players on that Croatia team.

[elroy]

If we play like we did 1st half against Austria or 2nd half v Georgia at home we will lose. Any other half of football in this campaign, we have a pretty good chance.

What is the general sense in Wales? Must win presumably? Or is there a feeling a draw could be enough. 12 points and a decent goal difference, it is possible though I would argue not greatest mind set to have.

[DannyInvincible]

Belgium 1-0 up against B&H after four minutes. Good stuff.

[DannyInvincible]

Balls. 1-1. A draw is still OK for us though.

[DannyInvincible]

Nightmare. 2-1 to B&H.

[liamoo11]

Martinez needs to get these Belgians sorted out at half time this seemed the least likely result to go against us

[DannyInvincible]

The pitch is abysmal. So mucky.

B&H's second goal came from a Begović hoof up-field. Obviously employing Irish tactics to really rub it in!

Batshuayi and Vermaelen both missed sitters from six yards since. I can see Belgium scoring again though as they've been creating chances. No reason to be overly worried just yet.

[jbyrne]

The pitch is abysmal. So mucky.

B&H's second goal came from a Begović hoof up-field. Obviously employing Irish tactics to really rub it in!

Batshuayi and Vermaelen both missed sitters from six yards since. I can see Belgium scoring again though as they've been creating chances. No reason to be overly worried just yet.


is it on tv? channel?

[DannyInvincible]

Just watching a stream: http://mamahd.in/p/mama.php?id=17815

[DannyInvincible]

2-2. Back on track.

[elroy]

Now 2-3. Surely in the bag. Now focus on our Cyprus friends

[DannyInvincible]

Belgium back in front. 3-2.

[liamoo11]

Always loved Martinez!

[DannyInvincible]

3-3. It'll be a nervy finish.

[jbyrne]

3-4 belgium

[DannyInvincible]

Belgium go 4-3 ahead. Less than ten minutes left.