World Cup Qualifying 2018, UEFA Group D - Opponent Watch

[DannyInvincible]

I think there's a big difference between "playing for a draw", and believing a more cautious approach gives you a better chance of winning the game. It's the latter that I think O'Neill was guilty of against Austria. I didn't agree with his strategy but I don't think he was happy with the draw either, or indeed the execution of his game plan.

That's probably a better way of putting it, in fairness.

The pattern of play against our main group competitors at home seems to be to play very cautiously - giving our opponents a greater deal of respect than they probably deserve - and then making a big push for the final quarter or so. From what I can recall (and correct me if I'm wrong), against Poland (in the last qualification campaign), Wales and Austria all at home, that late burst proved to be just too late for us to snatch the three points and we've ended up with draws in games when we really could have won them had we started as we finished. Had we had another ten minutes or so in each of those three games, I think we could have won them. Despite having clawed back and squaring things up from being a goal down in two of those games, the end-result of a draw still felt oddly frustrating or irritating in the immediate aftermath considering how strongly I think we had finished those games.

[liamoo11]

Obviously it would be better if we won - but the fact remains Austria are still in the game, although I don't hold out much hope that they get a result in Cardiff.

I see no reason why people would think Wales will definitely beat Austria at home. Wales were seriously lucky to draw with georgia and Serbia at home. They are no more impressive than us and Austria certainly have more squad depth. I think Austria will be revitalised come September they Know they have it in their hands to have a great chance to at least finish second. I'd have more money on Austria been in the shake up than Wales and I'm certainly happier we r heading to Cardiff in last game than vienna.

[DeLorean]

Serbia recall Torino's Adem Ljajic as they announce squad for Moldova/Ireland double header - http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/soccer/serbia-recall-adem-ljajic-for-ireland-world-cup-clash-457140.html




Goalkeepers:
Vladimir Stojkovic, Aleksandar Jovanovic (Partizan), Predrag Rajkovic (Maccabi Haifa), Marko Dmitrovic (Eibar).

Defenders:
Branislav Ivanovic (Zenit), Jagos Vukovic (Olympiacos), Stefan Mitrovic (Gent), Nikola Maksimovic (Napoli), Matija Nastasic (Schalke), Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Uros Spajic (Anderleht), Ivan Obradovic (Anderlecht), Antonio Rukavina (Villarreal).

Midfielders:
Ljubomir Fejsa (Benfica), Luka Milivojevic (Crystal Palace), Nemanja Matic (Manchester United), Nemanja Gudelj (Tijandin Teda, China), Nemanja Maksimovic (Valencia).

Forwards:
Dusan Tadic (Southampton), Filip Kostic (Hamburg), Adem Ljajic (Torino), Aleksandar Mitrovic (Newcastle Utd), Andrija Pavlovic (Copenhagen), Mijat Gacinovic (Eintracht Frankfurt), Aleksandar Prijovic (PAOK).

[liamoo11]

Serbia recall Torino's Adem Ljajic as they announce squad for Moldova/Ireland double header - http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/soccer/serbia-recall-adem-ljajic-for-ireland-world-cup-clash-457140.html

See stojkovic has been released by forest

[DeLorean]

See stojkovic has been released by forest

Oh right... I just assumed both goalkeepers were on the books at Partizan. :o

[liamoo11]

Oh right... I just assumed both goalkeepers were on the books at Partizan. :o

You are completely right it seems http://www.nottinghampost.com/sport/football/mark-warburton-confirms-vladimir-stojkovic-323935 . He still seems to be there first choice for Serbia hopefully a possible weak link

[Diggs246]

I hope Serbia play Predrag Rajkovic in nets against us, he "played" against us out in Serbia and quite frankly I thought he wasn't even good enough to be a professional footballer

[seanfhear]

I hope Serbia play Predrag Rajkovic in nets against us, he "played" against us out in Serbia and quite frankly I thought he wasn't even good enough to be a professional footballerIs he good enough to be a professional Goalkeeper ...Only Kidding....

[DannyInvincible]

I hope Serbia play Predrag Rajkovic in nets against us, he "played" against us out in Serbia and quite frankly I thought he wasn't even good enough to be a professional footballer

He did look very flaky. He also played against Dundalk for Maccabi Tel Aviv in last season's Europa League and didn't look too sharp.


Serbia recall Torino's Adem Ljajic as they announce squad for Moldova/Ireland double header - http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/soccer/serbia-recall-adem-ljajic-for-ireland-world-cup-clash-457140.html

Interestingly, Adem Ljajić, who is an ethnic Bosniak Muslim, was suspended by the Serbian association in 2012 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adem_Ljaji%C4%87#International_career) for having opted out of singing the Serbian national anthem before a match. Serbia's manager at the time, Siniša Mihajlović, enforced a policy demanding that his players should sing the anthem. As a result, Ljajić didn’t play for the national team again until Mihajlović's time in charge came to an end in February of 2014. That Examiner piece mentions how he recently impressed the current Serbian boss in order to "lose his outcast status"; I wonder is Ljajić still regarded as an unpopular or controversial figure in Serbia - or at least amongst ethnic Serbs who make up the overwhelming majority (over 80 per cent) of the Serbian population - as a result of the earlier anthem thing...

[DannyInvincible]

Cracking goal for Woodburn to put Wales 1-0 ahead against Austria, but an awful result for us if it stays like this. If we draw against Serbia (bringing us to 14 points) and Wales beat Moldova (also bringing them to 14 points), am I correct in thinking they're back in second place ahead of us on goal difference?

[DannyInvincible]

An amazing finish from Wales there too. They should/could have scored three further goals in stoppage time alone. They kept attacking until the final whistle and fully deserve to be back in reckoning in this group. If that was us, we'd have been sitting back trying to soak up the pressure and it would be nail-biting. We really need to beat Serbia now on Tuesday or we're in trouble.

[Bungle]

We simply have to beat Serbia now. Very annoying that we have let Wales back in to this group.

Let's just hope that Georgia can do us a favour on Tuesday and beat/draw with Wales.

[tricky_colour]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1M1vzTKwo8
Cracking goal! Only 17 too!

He is gonna be worth a bob or two.

That and Bale, Wales is our final game, away, could be very final.

Sorry if I am sounding pessimistic!

[DeLorean]

Let's just hope that Georgia can do us a favour on Tuesday and beat/draw with Wales.

Wales play Moldova on Tuesday which seems inconvenient right now as it's a good chance for them to sustain their momentum. On the flip side, they'll be flying back from Tbilisi (hopefully after a negative result) before they play us.

[boysingreen]

Even if we beat Serbia now, we'll only go a point clear of them.

So we'd probably also need Austria to take points off them in Vienna, or Georgia in Belgrade, because it's a long shot we'd take 3 points in Cardiff.

[DeLorean]

An unmotivated Austria at that. It's been a bad day that should've been even worse.

[tricky_colour]

Hopefully we can bounce back from this, we should I believe be taking a good squad, no new injuries or yellows?

This game was always the big one anyway even if we had won, it is a 6 pointer after all.

Look on it as a bad game out of the way and hopefully a good result to follow!

[DeLorean]

We've three bad games out of the way now since Vienna... and a couple prior to that as well. :)

[Cymro]

Well, last night keeps the interest in this group. I had a tenner on Ireland to beat Georgia and thought it would come good in the final minute with McCarthy's chance - but in truth Georgia probably should have won that. Austria can feel a bit aggrieved too, but as bad as we were in the first half we showed much more attacking intent towards the end of the game. A draw was no good for either side anyway, so at least one of us can carry on :)

Tuesday's games are very important now, anything other than an Irish win is probably a decent result for us if we can beat Moldova. However, it's hard to say as an Irish win keeps us in with a better chance of winning the group. Draw is great so please let O'Neill do his steady Eddie tactics!

If either we or you end up in the play-offs, none of the teams we might face, with the exception of Italy and possibly Portugal although I think they can still win their group, fill me with great dread.

[DannyInvincible]

I had a tenner on Ireland to beat Georgia and thought it would come good in the final minute with McCarthy's chance - but in truth Georgia probably should have won that.

McCarthy is injured. You must be confusing him with either McClean or McGeady, both of whom missed very good chances in the latter stage of the game.

[Cymro]

McCarthy is injured. You must be confusing him with either McClean or McGeady, both of whom missed very good chances in the latter stage of the game.

I think it was McGeady. To be honest, I had a beer-bellied b*stard partially blocking my view in the pub, so I didn't totally see the name on the back of the shirt. 'Mc' is hardly a rare part of Irish surnames, hah. :D

[geysir]

Some Welsh pundit called Rush (in his day, a John Aldridge wannabe ) on the BBC was talking about the upcoming crunch game between Wales and Ireland, as if there were not two games out in the far east for Wales to negotiate first before they earn the right to be a contender for a crunch game.

If Wales can manage to still be in contention for 2nd place in that last game, they will still have to overcome their historic ability to fall flat under pressure in the face of qualification finality.

[DannyInvincible]

There's no thread dedicated to potential runners-up/play-off permutations, so I'll post this here in the qualification opponent watch thread...

Denmark's 1-4 away win over Armenia earlier this evening was a bad result for us in terms of the ranking of the runners-up (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA)#Ranking_o f_second-placed_teams). It has shifted us from 7th to 8th in the ranking table and we're now teetering on the brink of missing out on the play-offs:

http://i68.tinypic.com/inx17t.png

Looking at the potential fortunes of whichever group H team finishes second in that group, B&H have group-winners Belgium to play at home next and then fifth-placed Estonia away in their final game. They can pick up a maximum of 14 points in the ranking table of the runners-up, although you'd fancy Belgium to take points off them, even if the game is in Sarajevo and Belgium are already qualified for the finals. In my opinion, it's more likely B&H will finish on 11 or 12 points, so goal difference (theirs is already the same as ours at present) may come into play if we end up on 11 or 12 points also. Of concern is the fact that if B&H manage at least one win and we can only manage a draw or two in our remaining games that will count towards the ranking, that will obviously push B&H ahead on goal difference.

The other threat from that group would be Greece, who would already be on 10 points in the runners-up rankings if they were in second place rather than in third place in group H right now. They'd be on 10 points - a higher runners-up table tally tally than B&H's - as they haven't played the bottom team, Gibraltar, twice yet.

http://i68.tinypic.com/jh5xdf.png

Greece play Cyprus away from home in the next round of games and then play Gibraltar in their final game. The Gibraltar game definitely won't count towards their final tally though as Gibraltar are already guaranteed to finish bottom of group H. I'd fancy Greece to get something against Cyprus though, if not a win, so they'll potentially finish on 11 or 13 points, most likely the latter. Worryingly, their goal difference would already be higher than ours; they'd be on +3 right now, by my working out.

It's important to remember that our result at home to Moldova won't count for these rankings, so our only chance to pick up points on this front will be in the games against Serbia and Wales. It's going to be bloody tight if we finish second after failing to pick up a win against either.

[pineapple stu]

There is technically the possibility of Georgia finishing bottom, which would actually suit us after Saturday's result. It's unlikely though as they've already played Georgia twice. They'd have to beat Austria or Wales at home (it does us no good losing to them ourselves just to bump them up a place!)

But stranger things have happened.

[SwanVsDalton]

There is technically the possibility of Georgia finishing bottom, which would actually suit us after Saturday's result. It's unlikely though as they've already played Georgia twice.

That's even worse. We were given the run around by a team that usually only plays itself. O'Neill out.

[pineapple stu]

Ah sugar. I must have deleted a line...

We need Moldova to win a game.

[Gather round]

The neutrals' dream scenario

ie D rs
mv A wl
at H ge

rs 16, wl 14, ie 14, at 11, ge 4, mv 2

at H rs
ie H mv
ge H wl (thanx for correction)

ie 17, rs 16, wl 14, at 14, ge 7, mv 2

wl H ie
rs D ge
mv A at

rs 17, ie 17, wl 17, at 17, ge 8, mv 2

Runner up loses on countback...

[Gather round]

http://i68.tinypic.com/inx17t.png

Who produced that table- Szinn Fejn's press office?

Predicted play off qualifiers

Switzerland
Italy
Ukraine
NI
Slovakia
Sweden
Greece
Montenegro

Wales

[dantheman]

The neutrals' dream scenario

ie D rs
mv A wl
at H ge

rs 16, wl 14, ie 14, at 11, ge 4, mv 2

at H rs
ie H mv
wl H ge

ie 17, rs 16, wl 14, at 14, ge 7, mv 2

wl H ie
rs D ge
mv A at

rs 17, ie 17, wl 17, at 17, ge 8, mv 2

Runner up loses on countback...

You mean the Ulster Loyalist's dream scenario?? :-)

A likely scenario though

[Gather round]

Although not an Ulster Loyalist, I'm pretty sure they'd prefer you to finish with less than 17 points ;)

[dantheman]

Although not an Ulster Loyalist, I'm pretty sure they'd prefer you to finish with less than 17 points ;)

For this scenario wl H ge should be ge H wl.

I know you'd prefer Wales to qualify but giving them 2 shots at Georgia in Cardiff isn't cricket dear boy ;-)

[DannyInvincible]

Who produced that table- Szinn Fejn's press office?

Predicted play off qualifiers

Switzerland
Italy
Ukraine
NI
Slovakia
Sweden
Greece
Montenegro

Wales

It was the table from Wikipedia ranking the second-placed teams as things stood after Denmark beat Armenia. Here's how things stand after the remainder of last night's games:

http://i67.tinypic.com/wspyki.png

[Gather round]

For this scenario wl H ge should be ge H wl.

I know you'd prefer Wales to qualify but giving them 2 shots at Georgia in Cardiff isn't cricket dear boy ;-)

Ta, corrected as above.

I'd prefer Serbia to qualify actually. Backing the underdog and all that...

[Real ale Madrid]

If we draw - win - draw, we are likely to be pipped by Wales for 2nd anyway. If we pick up 7 points in the last 3 games ( 4 in the SRB/WAL ) we will have done enough to keep us out of the worst runner-up spot. The only way I see this scenario being an issue is if Wales fail to beat Georgia in Tblisi, thus handing us second place if we draw in Cardiff.

I must say its looking likely that we could end up unbeaten and in 3rd. I can't see Wales handing the initiative to Georgia like we did.

[rebelmusic]

Reposting this:

Had another look, didnt realise we were on 11 points.

So if The nether-region beat Sweden, we're in as they'd be on 11.
Turkey Beat Iceland we're good
Turkey draw with Iceleand we're good
Montes beat Denmark but lose to Poland
Belgium beat Bosnia then it doesnt matter what they or Greece do..


To be honest, if we beat Wales we'll qualify. Odds are in our favour.

Beating Wales should not be a daunting task

[DannyInvincible]

We're not on 11 points though. If we were in second position in our group, we'd currently be on 10 points in the table ranking the second-placed teams.

We have 13 points as it stands in group D and the away win over Moldova is discarded, so that'd bring us back down to 10 points for the second-placed ranking.

http://i65.tinypic.com/25jcgls.png

[Diggs246]

Dannyinvinicle, if we collect 6 points do you think "best guess" that will be good enough for a play off?

[geysir]

In the 2nd place musical chairs table, what are the odds that there will be a few teams joined at the bottom on 13 points and it goes down to goal diff?
In that scenario NI would probably need another point in order to avoid the dreaded "come in nr 9" call.

Permutations to avoid that nr 9 spot are complex
eg, If B&H don't beat an already qualified Belgium at home, then up steps Greece to the podium with an opportunity to claim 2nd place in Cyprus and end up on 13 points.
In Iceland's group, it's a reservoir dogs style mexican standoff.

[Gather round]

In the 2nd place musical chairs table, what are the odds that there will be a few teams joined at the bottom on 13 points and it goes down to goal diff?
In that scenario NI would probably need another point in order to avoid the dreaded "come in nr 9" call

Aye, 13 points in the countback might well see someone lose out on goal difference. Mikey O'Neill may set out to lose narrowly like in our last game with Germany.

[DannyInvincible]

Dannyinvinicle, if we collect 6 points do you think "best guess" that will be good enough for a play off?

Personally, I fear it won't be enough. If we do manage two wins in our final two games and finish second, I suspect we'll still miss out on the play-offs on goal difference. I expect Greece to finish second in group H with two wins over Cyprus and Gibraltar in their final two games and I think that'll prove fatal for us. There are other results in other groups that could go our way, but I'm not overly confident. I think Scotland could still finish second on 18 points in their group, for example, which would leave them on 12 points in the runners-up table (a point behind our hypothetical 13), but the likelihood of results going that way in Scotland's group is exceptionally slim, I'd say.

It's a total head-fry trying to work it all out. I genuinely think you'd need some sort of programme/generator to compile a list of all the possible permutations in order to see which results would be beneficial for us. Usually the much-maligned Balls.ie are useful for that sort of thing; their saving grace perhaps, ha. They may well have their people on the case.

[DannyInvincible]

I see FIFA have announced the play-offs will be seeded: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017/0906/902666-world-cup-play-off/

I don't think that would benefit us. Just doing a quick scan through the FIFA rankings of the current second-placed teams (in order to give a very rough guide, as we still don't know for certain who'll finish as runners-up) and I can see that Portugal (6th), Italy (12th), Sweden (19th), Iceland (20th), Slovakia (22nd) and NI (23rd) would all be ranked ahead of us. We're ranked 29th at the minute. Obviously, only the four highest-ranked teams out of the eight play-off qualifiers will be seeded.

(Would it be worth a mod separating the posts relating to runners-up and the play-offs into a "play-off permutations" thread or something like that, as I'm sure there'll be plenty of discussion on that front as a consequence of last night's result?)

[boysingreen]

Personally, I fear it won't be enough. If we do manage two wins in our final two games and finish second, I suspect we'll still miss out on the play-offs on goal difference. I expect Greece to finish second in group H with two wins over Cyprus and Gibraltar in their final two games and I think that'll prove fatal for us. There are other results in other groups that could go our way, but I'm not overly confident. I think Scotland could still finish second on 18 points in their group, for example, which would leave them on 12 points in the runners-up table (a point behind our hypothetical 13), but the likelihood of results going that way in Scotland's group is exceptionally slim, I'd say.

It's a total head-fry trying to work it all out. I genuinely think you'd need some sort of programme/generator to compile a list of all the possible permutations in order to see which results would be beneficial for us. Usually the much-maligned Balls.ie are useful for that sort of thing; their saving grace perhaps, ha. They may well have their people on the case.

So I take it then that if Wales drop pts v Georgia, it's highly improbable for us to get a playoff spot with just a draw in Cardiff?

[DannyInvincible]

So I take it then that if Wales drop pts v Georgia, it's highly improbable for us to get a playoff spot with just a draw in Cardiff?

We could qualify for the play-offs with a draw against Wales in theory, so long as we finished ahead of Wales in second place, so they'd have to drop points in Georgia. I looked at some ways in which I think we could potentially get into the play-offs with a draw against Wales (leaving us on 11 points in the table ranking runners-up) here: http://foot.ie/threads/225065-Republic-of-Ireland-V-Serbia-Tuesday-5th-September-2017-World-Cup-2018-Qualifier?p=1935250&viewfull=1#post1935250

I think it'd be a miracle if we managed to get to the play-offs with a draw in Cardiff.

[DeLorean]

Zidane would prefer if Bale doesn't play for Wales - http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/international-soccer/bale-worry-for-wales-36187225.html


Gareth will go with his national team. He has not played, but as he still has a bit of an issue we would prefer him not to play.

[DeLorean]

Not as thorough as Danny's work on the various permutations, but Dan McDonnell gives a handy summary of what is realistically required from the other groups should we manage to get the six points needed - http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/international-soccer/ireland-mission-complicated-by-playoff-doubts-36187224.html


If the already-qualified Belgium stop hosts Bosnia from winning their penultimate qualifier next Saturday and Greece drop points to neighbours Cyprus on the same evening, then a six-point finish for Ireland would definitely be enough to avoid a cruel fate.


If that fails, the other group of realistic interest is Group F which has been dominated by England. What Ireland need there is Gareth Southgate's men to defeat Slovenia on Thursday. At the same time, the key match is in Glasgow where a home success for Scotland against Slovakia is essential. The hope would be that Scotland follow that up by failing to win in Slovenia on the Sunday.

So, basically, we should know by Saturday night if we're screwed or not. If Slovakia get a result in Scotland and Greece win in Cyprus, the game is pretty much up. Those two things, in particular, are very likely to happen.


Group F

Thursday
England v Slovenia (19:45) - England win needed
Scotland v Slovakia (19:45) - Scotland win needed

Sunday
Slovakia v Malta (17:00)
Slovenia v Scotland (17:00) - Slovenia to get something needed (in addition to the above)

OR

Group H

Saturday
Bosnia-Herzigovina v Belgium (17:00) - Belgium win needed
Cyprus v Greece (19:45) - Cyprus to get something needed

Tuesday
Estonia v Bosnia-Herzigovina (19:45) - Estonia to get something possibly needed
Greece v Gibraltar (19:45)

[Diggs246]

I know I'm in denial of our fate, but Cyprus's home form is actually quite good, they have only lost to Belgium

[DeLorean]

I know I'm in denial of our fate, but Cyprus's home form is actually quite good, they have only lost to Belgium

Yeah, I looked at that too and sadly it's probably our best chance.

[geysir]

Zidane would prefer if Bale doesn't play for Wales - http://www.independent.ie/sport/soccer/international-soccer/bale-worry-for-wales-36187225.html

I agree with Zidane.

[jbyrne]

I agree with Zidane.

I don't know. have a feeling he will get himself sent off against us

[tetsujin1979]

He nearly did in the game at the Aviva. A tackle on O'Shea in the penalty area a few minutes before Coleman's injury could have easily been a red