World Cup Qualifying 2018, UEFA Group D - Opponent Watch

[DeLorean]

It looks like The Independent were twisting Zidane's words above to create more of a stir. - https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/gareth-bale-trains-with-wales-recovery-group-1.3241068



"He will travel with his international team,” Zidane explained to reporters in Spain.

“He could have played with us but I preferred to leave him out as he had a small complaint.

“He’s fine. After so many games at the start of the season and four months of injury, he was suffering after the game in Dortmund.

“He strained his hamstring but in the end it’s nothing. It’s not an injury. I’ve spoken to him and the doctors.”

[geysir]

It's a win win situation for us, even if he plays he'll get himself sent off.

[DannyInvincible]

RTÉ have also compiled an outline of possible permutations that may allow us to qualify for the play-offs: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017/1002/909048-all-permutations-what-ireland-need-to-win-playoff-spot/


The shopping list of results Ireland want in other groups (in order of priority and likelihood):

Group H

Bosnia v Belgium (away win or draw)
Cyprus v Greece (draw or home win)

Result: Neither Greece nor Bosnia would be able to reach 13 points in runners up table


Group I [sic: should say "Group F"]

Scotland v Slovakia (home win)
England v Slovenia (home win)
Slovenia v Scotland (home win or draw)

Result: Scotland, Slovenia and Slovakia would fall short of 13 points tally


Group E

Montenegro v Denmark (narrow home win)
Poland v Montenegro (comprehensive home win)
Denmark v Romania (away win or draw)

Result: Montenegro would potentially fall behind Ireland on goal difference; Denmark wouldn't reach the 13-point tally on goal difference


Group C

Northern Ireland v Germany (very heavy away win)
Norway v Northern Ireland (home win)

Result: Northern Ireland would remain stuck on 13 points in runners up table would a much poorer goal difference

The author didn't go into group I - Iceland and Turkey's group - in great detail, but I looked at how that group could potentially work in our favour here: http://foot.ie/threads/225065-Republic-of-Ireland-V-Serbia-Tuesday-5th-September-2017-World-Cup-2018-Qualifier?p=1935250&viewfull=1#post1935250

Of course, any chance we might have through other results is dependent on us doing the business and finishing second in our group first.

[Real ale Madrid]

Bale ruled out for Wales' set of qualifying fixtures.

I think if Wales fail to win in Tbilisi they can only get to a max of 12 points by beating us which means they could be out of contention by the time we play them.

Yes / No / maybe?

[DeLorean]

Yeah, that's correct. They probably wouldn't be mathematically out of contention but would be hoping for a miracle along the lines of Gibraltar getting a result against Greece or Malta against Slovakia, I would think.

We might be better off playing a Wales team not just out to stifle us though. Hard to know, and we must beat Moldova first of course.

[geysir]

It looks like The Independent were twisting Zidane's words above to create more of a stir. - https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/gareth-bale-trains-with-wales-recovery-group-1.3241068
The Indo were just more up to date with information.

The IT's quote from Zidane came from a saturday pre-match (Espanyol) interview where he played down Bale's strain.

The Indo's quote of Zidane urging caution came from a post match interview (https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/real-madrid/injury-news/news/zidane-urges-caution-over-bale-injury_308654.html)

Speaking after against Espanyol, Zidane urged the Dragons to handle the 28-year-old's injury problem with care.
"Gareth will go with his national team," he told reporters. "He has not played, but as he still has a bit of an issue and we would prefer him not to play."

[DeLorean]

Ah, fair enough. I stand corrected.

[DeLorean]

Group C

Northern Ireland v Germany (very heavy away win)
Norway v Northern Ireland (home win)

Result: Northern Ireland would remain stuck on 13 points in runners up table would a much poorer goal difference

NI have an impressive GD of +7 against the relevant teams, conceding only twice (both against Germany). Our GD is zero against the relevant teams so if we pick up the six points needed, it will increase to a minimum of +1. So we need NI to lose both games and by an aggregate of -7 for this to be a runner. Germany will need to do the bulk of the work here you would think, it's highly far-fetched but they have been known to pull the occasional 6-1, or even 7-1 victory out of the bag!

[Diggs246]

sorry if already covered, if we beat Moldova and Draw against Wales
What do we need in ( I assume Group H) to happen to give us a chance of a play off .. if any?

this is of course is wales don't beat Georgia

[zero]

sorry if already covered, if we beat Moldova and Draw against Wales
What do we need in ( I assume Group H) to happen to give us a chance of a play off .. if any?

this is of course is wales don't beat Georgia

that would put us on 11 points with +1 GD so i think we need greece to lose in cyprus by either more than 2 goals (they are +3 GD currently in the 2nd place race) or by 2 goals and we draw at least 2-2 with wales, and bosnia to only pick up 1 more point from their last two games (home to belgium, away to estonia). and of course wales to fail to beat georgia.

[DannyInvincible]

...we must beat Moldova first of course.

Not necessarily. If Wales lose or draw against Georgia, we could afford to lose against Moldova and still finish second in the group by beating Wales then in Cardiff. We'd have 16 points on that basis and Wales would have 15 (if they drew against Georgia) or 14 (if they lost against Georgia). That tally of 16 points would then translate into 13 points for us in the runners-up table which is the same as what we would have even if we beat Moldova, as results against them will be discarded seeing as they'll (almost certainly) finish bottom of the group (unless they also beat Austria in their final game whilst Georgia pick up no more than two points in their final two games).


sorry if already covered, if we beat Moldova and Draw against Wales
What do we need in ( I assume Group H) to happen to give us a chance of a play off .. if any?

this is of course is wales don't beat Georgia

There's a minuscule possibility of qualifying for the play-offs under such circumstances with some help from either group H or E. I looked at how we could get into the play-offs with 11 points in the runners-up table (which is what we'd have if we beat Moldova, drew with Wales and Wales failed to beat Georgia) here:


Just going back to group H, I'm realising that the following is quite possible (and I see zero has mentioned it as I've been composing this post): Belgium beat B&H and B&H beat Estonia whilst Greece draw with Cyprus (that game is in Cyprus, importantly) and then Greece beat Gibraltar. That'd leave both B&H and Greece on 17 points in that group and whoever had the superior goal difference between them would finish second. In the runners-up table, that'd convert to a tally of 11 points, which'd be grand for us if we're to manage 13 points.

Just trying to work out if there's any chance that 11 points for us could ever be enough to keep us out of the worst runner-up spot in the runners-up table; seems it might be possible actually... Further to the scenario outlined immediately above, if we won against Moldova, whilst Wales lost to or drew with Georgia, and we then drew in Wales, that'd secure second position for us in group D with 17 points (as Wales would finish on either 15 or 16 points). That would, of course, translate into 11 points in the runners-up table. Our runners-up table goal difference total would not improve with those results, however, and would remain at +1, due to the fact we'd have drawn with Wales and our goals against Moldova would be discarded, so that could prove detrimental if we were ranked against another runner-up on 11 points.

It wouldn't necessarily be fatal though; B&H's current goal difference in the runners-up table is +2. In their group, it's actually +11 (compared to Greece's +6), but +9 of B&H's goals were scored against sixth-placed Gibraltar, so are discarded. If B&H were to lose by a few goals to Belgium and then beat Estonia by the slimmest of margins (and finish second in group H, meaning Greece would have to get no more than 4 points in their final two games and also fail to score enough goals to better B&H's group-table goal difference total), it might actually take B&H's goal difference total below +1 in the runners-up table. As one of Greece's games is at home to Gibraltar though, Greece could score highly in this, so there'd be an obvious worry these potential goals could take them ahead of B&H into second in group H if the two sides were to finish equal on points under the aforementioned circumstances.

I think, for B&H, a 3-0 loss to Belgium and a 1-0 win against Estonia would do the trick for us in bringing B&H's runners-up table goal difference to 0. It'd be unlikely to be of use to us at +1 as they've already scored more goals than us (which is the next differentiator in the runners-up table), unless our draw against Wales in this scenario is a very high-scoring one. If Greece drew against Cyprus and also failed to score over 3 goals against Gibraltar in Athens, I'm pretty sure Greece would finish behind B&H on goal difference (with both teams on 17 points) in their group. Or if Greece lost to Cyprus, that'd make it impossible for them to overtake B&H.

If Greece, on the other hand, were to finish second in group H on 17 points (giving them 11 in the runners-up table), it's highly likely the eventual Greek goal difference total (which would already be +3 if they were ranked in the table of second-placed teams), would also be superior to ours (+1) if both of us were to be ranked on 11 points.

Likewise, if a group E team was to finish with 11 points in the runners-up table and we also had 11 points, I think it's highly likely their goal difference would still be superior, especially if it's Denmark, as, although both Montenegro and Denmark have the same goal difference (+11) in their group right now, Denmark would have more goals than Montenegro in the runners-up table as Denmark scored more of their goals against teams other than Kazakhstan and both teams' goals against Kazakhstan would obviously be discarded; Montenegro would lose +8 goals whilst Denmark would lose only +5 goals due to the discarding of Kazakhstan results.

If Montenegro were, however, to somehow finish second, say, after losing to Poland in Warsaw by 3 goals or more after having drawn with Denmark in Podgorica, which would prevent Denmark from passing them (it would also require Denmark losing to Romania in Copenhagen by as many goals as the margin by which Montenegro lost to Poland), I'm pretty certain 11 points and our goal difference of +1 would be enough for us in the runners-up table in order to take us to the play-offs. That possible outcome would be extremely unlikely though, surely.

It's extremely improbable that we'd make it to the play-offs with a draw in Cardiff, but not mathematically impossible.

[DannyInvincible]

RTÉ have also compiled an outline of possible permutations that may allow us to qualify for the play-offs: https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017/1002/909048-all-permutations-what-ireland-need-to-win-playoff-spot/

I was just looking back through this in greater detail and noticed that the author suggested that the following results in group E would be optimal for us:


Group E

Montenegro v Denmark (narrow home win)
Poland v Montenegro (comprehensive home win)
Denmark v Romania (away win or draw)

Result: Montenegro would potentially fall behind Ireland on goal difference; Denmark wouldn't reach the 13-point tally on goal difference

I see Balls.ie have suggested similarly in their permutations summary: https://www.balls.ie/football/what-do-ireland-need-to-do-to-qualify-for-the-world-cup-375017


Montenegro are the second-placed incumbents, level on points with third-placed Denmark and three points behind leaders Poland. The best jumping off point here is to hope the group winners run away with things, so let's start by hoping that Poland beat both Armenia and Montenegro.

If they go clear at the top, that means we only have to worry about Montenegro or Denmark. Given that both of those play each other tomorrow night, we would be better off if Montenegro had the decency to beat Denmark and then get battered by Poland. That would mean that Montenegro would rank level with Ireland on 13 points, but their current goal difference is plus-eleven, eight better than Ireland's. They would need to edge victory against the Danes and then suffer an almighty hammering against the Poles.

And added to that, we need Denmark to drop points at home to Romania on the final day, to avoid them edging Ireland on goal difference in the playoff rankings.

That final sentence doesn't even make sense; if Denmark drop points against Romania after having already dropped points against Montenegro, their goal difference won't matter. In my opinion, we should be hoping for a draw between Montenegro and Denmark in Podgorica. Why on earth would we want Montenegro ranking level with is on 13 runners-up points if they've a much superior goal difference already? :confused:

That game between Montenegro and Denmark is tonight and a draw is quite likely, in my opinion. We'd then be looking for Montenegro to also fail to beat Poland in Warsaw in their final game (very possible as Poland, the group-leaders, beat Montenegro in Podgorica) and for Denmark to fail to beat Romania in Copenhagen in their final game (less likely but not impossible, considering they drew 0-0 in Bucharest). That combination of results would leave both Montenegro and Denmark on 18 points in their group, which would translate to 12 points in the runners-up table. If we can beat Wales and finish second in our group, we'll have 13 points in the runners-up table, so we'd definitely be positioned above either Montenegro or Denmark in such a scenario. I think that might be one of our more hopeful possibilities (along with group H (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_UEFA_G roup_H)).

[DannyInvincible]

A few games that could affect whether or not we get to the play-offs are about to kick off shortly.

http://i65.tinypic.com/qp2qu0.png

In group C, we're looking for a very heavy win for Germany over NI, preferably by about 5 or 6 goals.

In group E, we're looking for Montenegro and Denmark to draw.

In group F, we need Scotland to beat Slovakia. We also want England to beat or draw with Slovenia. England beating Slovenia would be preferable obviously.

[Philly]

None of those looking certain right now anyway.

[irishfan86]

Slovakia has been playing with 10 men for about 40 min now. Although as we are too well aware, that doesn't always mean the team with 11 men will get the result.

[zero]

potential avenues are beginning to close for us... 30 mins to play though.

[DannyInvincible]

Scotland pushing for a goal now and getting closer. Just hit the cross-bar.

[DannyInvincible]

I don't know how Scotland haven't scored yet. They hit the cross-bar again and the Slovakia keeper is playing a blinder. They're still piling on the pressure though. Slovakia looking like they'd settle for a draw at this point.

[DannyInvincible]

Magic. Scotland score.

[nigel-harps1954]

Scotland with what looks an 89th minute winner. Doesn't a draw suit us better there given Slovakia play Malta in their final game? A win over Moldova and Wales guarantees finishing above them if Slovakia draw tonight, but Scotland winning means we'll need to have a better goal difference than Scotland.

[geysir]

Scotland winning is to our adv, a draw for Slovakia would have been worse for us considering their goal diff.
Pity Slovenia conceded so late, a draw there would have been better for us as they would have something extra to play for v Scotland.

[DannyInvincible]

Nah, a Scotland win was definitely the result we needed. A draw would have brought Slovakia on to 13 points in the runners-up table with a superior goal difference to us.

If Scotland and Slovenia draw now or if Slovenia beat Scotland, we'll be in the playoffs if we beat Wales and finish second.

[zero]

Scotland with what looks an 89th minute winner. Doesn't a draw suit us better there given Slovakia play Malta in their final game? A win over Moldova and Wales guarantees finishing above them if Slovakia draw tonight, but Scotland winning means we'll need to have a better goal difference than Scotland.

if scotland draw their last game, then slovakia finish second, but only on 12 points as the results v malta are discounted. in fact, is it not the case that either a slovenia win or a draw is good enough? i believe so.

[nigel-harps1954]

EDIT:

This is far too confusing for my liking at this point in time.

I need a pint.

[DannyInvincible]

Denmark beat Montenegro 1-0, so that's the group E avenue closed, unfortunately.

I'd say it's unlikely Scotland will beat Slovenia in Slovenia. Slovenia aren't mathematically out of it either. They'd be depending on Slovakia slipping up against Malta, but they'll surely still give maximum effort so long as they're mathematically in it.

[dantheman]

Denmark beat Montenegro 1-0, so that's the group E avenue closed, unfortunately.

I'd say it's unlikely Scotland will beat Slovenia in Slovenia. Slovenia aren't mathematically out of it either. They'd be depending on Slovakia slipping up against Malta, but they'll surely still give maximum effort so long as they're mathematically in it.


Been asked before I am sure but can we qualify by drawing with Wales (beating Moldova and Georgia drawing tomorrow as well)?? :D

[colonelwest]

EDIT:

This is far too confusing for my liking at this point in time.

I need a pint.

I know the feeling, it's basically this:

https://i.giphy.com/media/BmmfETghGOPrW/giphy.webp

[DannyInvincible]

if scotland draw their last game, then slovakia finish second, but only on 12 points as the results v malta are discounted. in fact, is it not the case that either a slovenia win or a draw is good enough? i believe so.

Spot on. If Scotland fail to beat Slovenia, we'll be through to the play-offs so long as we beat Wales and finish second. We'll know the result from that game too going into Monday as it'll be on Sunday night. I'm feeling a good deal more optimistic all of a sudden.

[geysir]

EDIT:

This is far too confusing for my liking at this point in time.

I need a pint.
I was going to suggest that you might have had one too many :)
Should it matter, the only bad result for us in that group would be a Scotland win v Slovenia,

[zero]

Denmark beat Montenegro 1-0, so that's the group E avenue closed, unfortunately.

I'd say it's unlikely Scotland will beat Slovenia in Slovenia. Slovenia aren't mathematically out of it either. They'd be depending on Slovakia slipping up against Malta, but they'll surely still give maximum effort so long as they're mathematically in it.

group A all but closed aswell. that northern ireland late goal in the 1-3 loss to germany means we'd need a 5 goal swing in our favour to finish above them.

i agree that scotland failing to win in slovenia seems quite tangible now and feels like our best hope. big games for us now tomorrow (ourselves), saturday (the greece/bosnia group) then slovenia scotland on sunday evening.

if we can go into the monday game needing 3 points to get a playoff spot, then i think it's true that quite a few people would have taken that at that the start of the group.

[DannyInvincible]

Been asked before I am sure but can we qualify by drawing with Wales (beating Moldova and Georgia drawing tomorrow as well)?? :D

Mathematically, we can. Check out post #261 in this thread for further details: http://foot.ie/threads/216367-World-Cup-Qualifying-2018-UEFA-Group-D-Opponent-Watch?p=1938227&viewfull=1#post1938227

We'd be relying on favourable results from group H only now for that. Unfortunately, Denmark beat Montenegro tonight, so group E is no longer of potential use to us on that front.

[dantheman]

Mathematically, we can. Check out post #261 in this thread for further details: http://foot.ie/threads/216367-World-Cup-Qualifying-2018-UEFA-Group-D-Opponent-Watch?p=1938227&viewfull=1#post1938227

We'd be relying on favourable results from group H only now for that. Unfortunately, Denmark beat Montenegro tonight, so group E is no longer of potential use to us on that front.

Thanks for the link, looks like the basis of a PhD that!! :o

[pineapple stu]

Worth noting Scotland have four clean sheets in their last five qualifiers. That's four wins and a draw with England, who equalised with the last kick. They're in good form after a crap start to the group and I'd say will fancy their chances of a win in Slovenia.

But nice to have the avenue open all the same.

[paul_oshea]

People laughed when i said strachan was doing well and back after the euros that i thought Wales were a team id like us to be.

Scotland have looked like us but much more solid

[DannyInvincible]

i agree that scotland failing to win in slovenia seems quite tangible now and feels like our best hope. big games for us now tomorrow (ourselves), saturday (the greece/bosnia group) then slovenia scotland on sunday evening.

if we can go into the monday game needing 3 points to get a playoff spot, then i think it's true that quite a few people would have taken that at that the start of the group.

Scotland are showing form, but Slovenia are also unbeaten at home in this campaign. England only managed a 0-0 draw there and they also beat Slovakia 1-0. I think we can be cautiously optimistic of Scotland failing to take three points.

It would be nice going to bed on Sunday night knowing that a win for us in Cardiff the following evening would definitely be enough to get us into the play-offs. The B&H-Belgium and Cyprus-Greece games are both on Saturday too. They're the crucial games in that group for us, so with Scotland playing on Sunday, we should hopefully know before Monday whether or not a win in Cardiff will get us through rather than having to wait 24 hours until Tuesday to have our fate confirmed (and possibly for a win to turn out to have not been enough). Even though we obviously can't be certain of beating Wales in Cardiff, there's a certain level of comfort or peace of mind in at least knowing exactly where we stand in advance. We can go out and truly give it our all then without that niggling fear in the back of our heads that it'll all be for nothing.

Another thing; if Wales drop points tomorrow, it could well deal their play-off hopes a fatal blow. If so, they might go into Monday's game with morale and motivation seriously depleted.

[Diggs246]

Will Northern Ireland be a seed team in the play offs?
( they are ranked 20 in the world at the Moment)

[Closed Account]

Will Northern Ireland be a seed team in the play offs?
( they are ranked 20 in the world at the Moment)

According to this:
http://www.football-rankings.info/2017/10/2018-world-cup-simulations-6-october.html

Chances of making the World Cup:
N Ireland: 28.41%
Wales: 27.25%
Scotland: 8.84%
Rep of Ireland: 6.81%

Chances of making the playoffs:
N Ireland: 98.96%
Wales: 41.81%
Scotland: 25.45%
Rep of Ireland: 16.37%

Chances of being the worst 2nd place team:
Wales: 26.63%
Rep of Ireland: 10.46%
N Ireland: 1.04%
Scotland: 0.43%

Chances of being seeded in the Playoffs:
Wales: 41.79%
N Ireland: 19.87%
Scotland: 1.27%
Rep of Ireland: 0%

[Lionel Ritchie]

Who knew maths could be so glib

[DannyInvincible]

The results we're looking for in tonight's games, according to Owen Cowzer: https://www.thesun.ie/sport/football/1630985/ireland-fans-should-hope-for-these-results-from-fridays-other-world-cup-qualifiers/


GROUP D

Georgia v Wales — Draw or Georgia win
Ireland v Moldova — Ireland win
Austria v Serbia — Austria win

GROUP G

Spain v Albania — Albania win
Italy v Macedonia — Macedonia win

GROUP I

Croatia v Finland — Draw or Finland win
Kosovo v Ukraine — Draw or Kosovo win
Turkey v Iceland — Iceland win

An Austria win over Serbia would obviously be better for us tonight as we can still mathematically top the group if we win our final two games and Serbia either:


i) lose both of theirs (their final game is at home to Georgia), or;
ii) pick up just a point over their final two games with us managing to improve our goal difference by +8 over our two victories to enable us to pull ahead of Serbia on goal difference.

As Cowzer says, we can forget about group G really. Italy will move out of our reach with a point against Macedonia tonight. Spain are already out of our reach if they were to drop back into second place in that group, whilst Albania, the only other team who can mathematically finish second in that group, would have to beat Spain tonight and win their next game, with Italy also losing their final two games to make it into the potential play-off spot. If they were to pass Italy then, they'd have 13 play-off points and their goal difference would almost certainly be superior to ours.

Group I is so hard to predict really as it's so tight and four teams there can still realistically qualify for the play-offs. Cowzer suggests the following would be ideal for us, however:


This is the hardest group to work out with two points separating four teams at the top.

From Ireland’s point of view, Iceland topping the group would be best as they already have 13 points that count towards the play-offs.

Croatia have ten so would have to fail to win their final two games, while Ukraine, with 11 points, have just one more game that counts — the final day showdown with the Croatians.

[DannyInvincible]

Will Northern Ireland be a seed team in the play offs?
( they are ranked 20 in the world at the Moment)

Out of the current second-placed teams in all the groups, NI are the fourth-highest ranked team (or third-best if you exclude Wales who are currently worst runner-up and who we are hoping to replace there anyway), so they'd be seeded if things stay as they are:

Portugal (3rd), Wales (13th), Italy (17th), NI (20th), Iceland (22nd), Sweden (23rd), Denmark (26th), B&H (36th) and Scotland (43rd).

For comparison, we're ranked 34th at the minute, so highly unlikely we'll be seeded if we make it. There'd be six teams ranked ahead of us on current standings (if you exclude Wales and even if you include B&H and Scotland, one of whom we're hoping will be the worst runner-up if we finish second).

[Diggs246]

Scotland are showing form, but Slovenia are also unbeaten at home in this campaign. England only managed a 0-0 draw there and they also beat Slovakia 1-0. I think we can be cautiously optimistic of Scotland failing to take three points.

It would be nice going to bed on Sunday night knowing that a win for us in Cardiff the following evening would definitely be enough to get us into the play-offs. The B&H-Belgium and Cyprus-Greece games are both on Saturday too. They're the crucial games in that group for us, so with Scotland playing on Sunday, we should hopefully know before Monday whether or not a win in Cardiff will get us through rather than having to wait 24 hours until Tuesday to have our fate confirmed (and possibly for a win to turn out to have not been enough). Even though we obviously can't be certain of beating Wales in Cardiff, there's a certain level of comfort or peace of mind in at least knowing exactly where we stand in advance. We can go out and truly give it our all then without that niggling fear in the back of our heads that it'll all be for nothing.

Another thing; if Wales drop points tomorrow, it could well deal their play-off hopes a fatal blow. If so, they might go into Monday's game with morale and motivation seriously depleted.


Out of the current second-placed teams in all the groups, NI are the fourth-highest ranked team (or third-best if you exclude Wales who are currently worst runner-up and who we are hoping to replace there anyway), so they'd be seeded if things stay as they are:

Portugal (3rd), Wales (13th), Italy (17th), NI (20th), Iceland (22nd), Sweden (23rd), Denmark (26th), B&H (36th) and Scotland (43rd).

For comparison, we're ranked 34th at the minute, so highly unlikely we'll be seeded if we make it. There'd be six teams ranked ahead of us on current standings (if you exclude Wales and even if you include B&H and Scotland, one of whom we're hoping will be the worst runner-up if we finish second).

Thanks Danny: Italy and (Portugal/ Switzerland) would be bad draws, but NI and Iceland we could qualify ( but lets win tonight first)

[geysir]

Out of the current second-placed teams in all the groups, NI are the fourth-highest ranked team (or third-best if you exclude Wales who are currently worst runner-up and who we are hoping to replace there anyway), so they'd be seeded if things stay as they are:

Portugal (3rd), Wales (13th), Italy (17th), NI (20th), Iceland (22nd), Sweden (23rd), Denmark (26th), B&H (36th) and Scotland (43rd).

For comparison, we're ranked 34th at the minute, so highly unlikely we'll be seeded if we make it. There'd be six teams ranked ahead of us on current standings (if you exclude Wales and even if you include B&H and Scotland, one of whom we're hoping will be the worst runner-up if we finish second).

At first glace that list of seeds looks disturbing but i assume it's the ranking after the qualifiers that count? Seeing as NI have already lost to Germany and probably a draw with Norway, so they should drop off a bit from that confounding elevation.
It would niggle me no end (should events transpire) that NI would grab Iceland's seeded place.

[tetsujin1979]

Welsh team to face Georgia: https://twitter.com/FAWales/status/916328771606712320
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLdkl3qXkAA8oOL.jpg

Ramsey, King, Ledley, Davies, Chester and Williams all carrying yellows according to Sky Sports.

[geysir]

Should we beat Moldovo, whatever the outcome in this game in Tiblisi doesn't change what needs to be done in the last game. but it would be nice if Georgia could p'iss on their parade.

[DannyInvincible]

At first glace that list of seeds looks disturbing but i assume it's the ranking after the qualifiers that count?

That's usually the way, aye.

Going OK for us in Georgia so far, although a Georgia goal would be ideal as that would pretty much put Wales out of the play-offs reckoning for definite. Would much rather facing a Wales with nothing to play for on Monday rather than a Wales with a play-off place to play for.

[koneinc]

Goal for Wales, changes nothing, still need two wins

[DannyInvincible]

Goal for Wales, changes nothing, still need two wins

It changes things a fair bit. It gives Wales a lot more to play for in the final game and also means we have to beat Moldova. If Wales were to fail to beat Georgia in this game, we could afford to lose against Moldova and it would make absolutely no difference to our runners-up ranking if we were to then finish second by beating Wales.

[koneinc]

Ireland team: Randolph; Christie, Duffy, Clark, Ward; Meyler (c), Hendrick, Hoolahan, O'Dowda; Long, Murphy.

[koneinc]

It changes things a fair bit. It gives Wales a lot more to play for in the final game and also means we have to beat Moldova. If Wales were to fail to beat Georgia in this game, we could afford to lose against Moldova and it would make absolutely no difference to our runners-up ranking if we were to then finish second by beating Wales.

Let's be honest, we need to beat Moldova anyway, if more for confidence than points.

[DannyInvincible]

Let's be honest, we need to beat Moldova anyway, if more for confidence than points.

True, you definitely want to and should be beating Moldova, although a Wales slip-up would have eased any anxiety and perhaps given us greater leeway to conserve the likes of Hoolahan for Cardiff.