World Cup Qualifying 2018, UEFA Group D - Opponent Watch

[DeLorean]

Kind of annoying that their suspensions could be more damaging than helpful for us!

[Diggs246]

Agreed
the red card rule should first rule the player out of the corresponding fixture (Taylor should be suspended for Wales v ire) if both fixtures have been played. Then it should be the next gane

[DeLorean]

For a straight red that could work alright. In Bale's case though he picked up yellows against two teams so I'm not sure it would be appropriate there.

[DannyInvincible]

For a straight red that could work alright. In Bale's case though he picked up yellows against two teams so I'm not sure it would be appropriate there.

He'd have to come off at half-time in both of the corresponding fixtures. :p

[DannyInvincible]

'Chris Coleman retains belief in depleted Wales': https://www.rte.ie/sport/soccer/2017/0607/880958-depleted-wales/

[BonnieShels]

Agreed
the red card rule should first rule the player out of the corresponding fixture (Taylor should be suspended for Wales v ire) if both fixtures have been played. Then it should be the next gane

That's a really sensible idea.

[DannyInvincible]

What would be the optimal result for us now in the Serbia-Wales game? Anything but a Serbia win surely?

[pineapple stu]

A draw costs both sides points

[tricky_colour]

A Wales win surely is best, puts us a point clear with everything in our culpable hands.

[boysingreen]

Wondering if Wales win would be best.

Perhaps with it, there's a plausible scenario where we draw with Serbia and Wales and still top the group?

[pineapple stu]

Guess it depends if you're optimistic or pessimistic.

I still can't see that we're good enough to top the group, so I'm happy to maximise the gap back to third.

[DannyInvincible]

Penalty for Wales for shirt-pulling.

[DannyInvincible]

Wow, what a cool penalty from Aaron Ramsey. 1-0 to Wales.

[tricky_colour]

OMG I was gonna back Wales to win (at 6-1) but I realised the game has started and Wales are 1-0 up so mixed feelings there and of course the game is far from over.

[DannyInvincible]

Joe Allen has received a booking and will be suspended for Wales' next game, which is at home to Austria.

[DannyInvincible]

Serbia equalise through Mitrović with 15 minutes to go.

[tetsujin1979]

Georgian midfielder Kanakava suspended for the game against us in September. Not sure how much of a difference that makes, but he seems to be a regular player for them

[tetsujin1979]

finishes 1-1 in Serbia. All games finished level in the group, so we're where we were this morning. Looking like we'll need to go to Cardiff needing a result to finish top of the group, which is what I wanted to avoid.

[DannyInvincible]

Serbia-Wales ends up 1-1 and Serbia return to the top of the group, pretty much as things were before today's round of games except each team has an extra point.

[shakermaker1982]

Still in our hands. Can we beat Serbia at home?

Hopefully Wales-Austria is a draw next up.

[KrisLetang]

Big win for Turkey vs Kosovo as well.

[TrapAPony]

Still in our hands. Can we beat Serbia at home?.

Don't think they are better than the Bosnian team we beat in the playoff to qualify for the Euros. Of course we can beat them, but I presume they will be given the same unmerited respect that Austria were given today with us drawing in the end.

[tricky_colour]

Everything very much in the balance, big game v Serbia, hard to predict the results between the top 4 but the draws are coming through thick and fast.

A win v Serbia would been nice but after today's performance it is hard to see us knocking six past them, I would not bet my trailer on them.

[DannyInvincible]

Don't think they are better than the Bosnian team we beat in the playoff to qualify for the Euros. Of course we can beat them, but I presume they will be given the same unmerited respect that Austria were given today with us drawing in the end.

I'm afraid that's how I envisage it as well. It's really disappointing that we're not two points out in front after today.

[boysingreen]

Tiebreaker rules could have a lot to say in this group yet. It goes 1) Goal diff 2) Goals scored 3) H2H

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_UEFA_Group_D

If it were H2H and we beat Serbia, Georgia, Moldova, would've clinched top spot and the Wales game would've been meaningless.

But with Goal diff as first tie breaker, we could win those three, then lose to Wales and still get pipped by Serbia on goal diff.

Not that you'd expect Ireland to be home and dry with anything to spare, but looks like every game and goal in the run in will be critical.

[tetsujin1979]

Joe Allen and Neil Taylor suspended for the Wales home game against Austria, and Bale will be back, Reckon they'll get the win there.

[boysingreen]

Suppose (considering the tie breaker rules) there could be a scenario where we draw with Serbia, match their results in the remaining games, and overturn the 2 goal lead they currently have on goal dif to top group.

Wouldn't want to bank on us outscoring them.

[tricky_colour]

Tiebreaker rules could have a lot to say in this group yet. It goes 1) Goal diff 2) Goals scored 3) H2H

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_UEFA_Group_D

If it were H2H and we beat Serbia, Georgia, Moldova, would've clinched top spot and the Wales game would've been meaningless.

But with Goal diff as first tie breaker, we could win those three, then lose to Wales and still get pipped by Serbia on goal diff.

Not that you'd expect Ireland to be home and dry with anything to spare, but looks like every game and goal in the run in will be critical.

Well we are 2 goals behind Serbia but if we beat them 1-0 that brings us level, however I am sure they will have scored more than
us, who hasn't?

But we have lots of football to play, we might not even beat Georgia, Wales didn't.

[DeLorean]

Looking like we'll need to go to Cardiff needing a result to finish top of the group, which is what I wanted to avoid.

Going to Cardiff with the group already won always seemed a bit fanciful but it's still a realistic possibility. Obviously we'll need to beat Serbia and avoid any slips against Georgia and Moldova, but there's every chance Austria will do us a favour when they host Serbia too.

[Bungle]

Serbia look the best team by a solid distance but they aren't a Germany or Spain. It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that they could draw to Georgia or Moldova. Unlikely but possible.

I believe the group will come down to goal difference though.

[jbyrne]

I believe the group will come down to goal difference though.

does head to head count first? If it did wouldn't we already have advantage over Austria in that regard and 1-1 (our favourite result against qualification rivals!) versus both Serbia and Wales would put us ahead of them also.

[Diggs246]

no unfortunately its goal difference

[DeLorean]

Serbia look the best team by a solid distance

I haven't seen any evidence to suggest this. At most they look marginally the best.

[KrisLetang]

The Serbs are fanatical about their showers. But not from the footage Jerry has seen.

So this time next year the lot of ye will either be arriving in Beautiful downtown Russia or miserable as you contemplate yet another World Cup without the Boys in Green face paint. Which will it be? Many believe the odds are a solid 50/50. Have any of you the courage to have already booked accommodation in a fabulous dacha or the like?

[TrapAPony]

Serbia look the best team by a solid distance but they aren't a Germany or Spain..

No, they are not. They are about on par with Bosnia who we beat to go to the Euros. I am a little afraid that the Irish team will have this attitude though and give them undeserved respect like we did against Austria.

[boysingreen]

The following seems a viable path to Russia if we can manage 3 pts v Serbia (not that Georgia is a foregone conclusion):

If we win next 2 games in September (Georgia away, Serbia home)
then we’ve a chance to guarantee top place on October 6 (Moldova home) if Serbia don’t win in Austria that night.

[DannyInvincible]

I'll be stunned if we beat Serbia, even if it is at home. O'Neill is very cautious and we'll play for the draw, just like how we played against both Wales and Austria at home, despite the fact we could and should have won both those games.

[tricky_colour]

Our home form in world cup qualifiers is really poor, the last decent side we beat was Netherlands in 2001!!!!!

Points gain against decent sides, most recent first. Decent being better than Georgia, which Serbia are.

1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0

So a draw would be a decent result for us realistic.

[Lionel Ritchie]

I'll be stunned if we beat Serbia, even if it is at home. O'Neill is very cautious and we'll play for the draw, just like how we played against both Wales and Austria at home, despite the fact we could and should have won both those games.

Sadly I agree. I just can't see it. Not that I think it's beyond our capabilities by any means (and I do recognise our very real limitations) -I just think it's beyond the scope of the teams brief.

[DeLorean]

I'll be stunned if we beat Serbia, even if it is at home. O'Neill is very cautious and we'll play for the draw, just like how we played against both Wales and Austria at home, despite the fact we could and should have won both those games.

I wouldn't be remotely stunned if we beat them. I agree about his conservative approach but he's still managed to pull wins against Germany, B&H, Italy and Austria out of his arse, which were a lot more stunning for the most part. Hopefully we can get over Georgia first anyway I suppose.

I think there's a big difference between "playing for a draw", and believing a more cautious approach gives you a better chance of winning the game. It's the latter that I think O'Neill was guilty of against Austria. I didn't agree with his strategy but I don't think he was happy with the draw either, or indeed the execution of his game plan.

I'd imagine he would have taken a point against Wales beforehand given how depleted we were. Maintaining a four point advantage over them was a decent outcome in the circumstances.


The following seems a viable path to Russia if we can manage 3 pts v Serbia (not that Georgia is a foregone conclusion):

If we win next 2 games in September (Georgia away, Serbia home)
then we’ve a chance to guarantee top place on October 6 (Moldova home) if Serbia don’t win in Austria that night.

Yep... that's the dream.

[Real ale Madrid]

I'll be stunned if we beat Serbia, even if it is at home. O'Neill is very cautious and we'll play for the draw, just like how we played against both Wales and Austria at home, despite the fact we could and should have won both those games.

We beat Germany in the last campaign at home with a cautious approach. We need McCarthy and Long back but with no further injuries I could see us playing a bit better than Sunday.

If Wales draw with Austria in the next game and we can beat Georgia then we are 6 pts clear of both Wales and Austria with 3 games to go, one of which is a home game against Moldova. Austria's point in Dublin keeps them fighting and they go to Cardiff well motivated. The Georgia game is huge.

[DeLorean]

Austria's point in Dublin keeps them fighting and they go to Cardiff well motivated.

Genius by O'Neill - reminds me of the time Packie left Poland score two goals so that they'd still have something to play for against England in 1991. :)

[Real ale Madrid]

Genius by O'Neill - reminds me of the time Packie left Poland score two goals so that they'd still have something to play for against England in 1991. :)

Obviously it would be better if we won - but the fact remains Austria are still in the game, although I don't hold out much hope that they get a result in Cardiff.

[DeLorean]

It is a good point though. Not only does it keep Austria in contention for Cardiff, but perhaps more crucially for their home match with Serbia (potentially).

[Kingdom]

We beat Germany in the last campaign at home with a cautious approach. We need McCarthy and Long back but with no further injuries I could see us playing a bit better than Sunday.

If Wales draw with Austria in the next game and we can beat Georgia then we are 6 pts clear of both Wales and Austria with 3 games to go, one of which is a home game against Moldova. Austria's point in Dublin keeps them fighting and they go to Cardiff well motivated. The Georgia game is huge.

Assuming both ourselves and Serbia win our next game, surely we want Austria to beat Wales? That would bring Austria back into the equation, with them still to face Serbia in Vienna, but almost certainly eliminate Wales. That would allow us to play for two draws in both Dublin v Serbia and Cardiff v Wales.

I have a gut feeling that Serbia are going to be a different proposition in the autumn. That's probably the pessimist in me, I'll readily admit that. I just don't believe O'Neill knows his best team, his best formation, or a combination of both. Considering the state of play in the group after November, to not qualify for this World Cup would really hurt.

[DeLorean]

We're still in a brilliant position it has to be said. We were lucky to beat Georgia, very lucky to draw in Serbia and scored a goal with five minutes to go to get a point on Sunday. We could and probably should be dead and buried already. I think there's a little bit too much focus on the "points dropped". Nobody has dropped less than us.

Chris Coleman is staying very positive about their chances, but in reality it's going to be extremely difficult for them to claw back ourselves or Serbia while keeping Austria at bay as well.

They really could have done with beating Serbia but conceded a late enough equaliser, on top of the leads they already threw away against Serbia previously, Georgia and Austria twice. If our glass is half empty, how frustrated must they be?!

[swinfordfc]

We have to win the next two games to have any chance in finishing first! .... Cant see that happening!

[DeLorean]

That's just not true though.

[Stuttgart88]

Technically not true but you'd really want to be winning both to begin looking like winning the group.

[DeLorean]

If we draw with Georgia and beat Serbia we will be top going into final two games.

If we beat Georgia and draw with Serbia we will be (at a minimum) joint top on points going into the final two games.

It's completely inaccurate to say...

"We have to win the next two games to have any chance in finishing first!"

(Not just technically inaccurate... as if it would take some bizarre set of circumstances for us to finish top.)

The negativity is overpowering on here this week.