Brexit - The End of the United Kingdom?

[TheBoss]

Well, that was slightly unexpected!

What will be the ramifications of this historic vote.

Will Scotland and Northern Ireland get referendums and perhaps the independence of London itself?

Markets will likely be volatile for the foreseeable future as I think no one knows exactly whats going to happen.

What have the Brits done!

[nigel-harps1954]

This is mental. Will have implications for the Irish in Britain, and likewise the British in Ireland. The border is going to be interesting, will there be a physical border put back in place? Will we need visas to go to England?

In footballing terms, this will have a big affect on the English Premier League too, the free movement between the EU meant it was so easy for them to sweep up all the best European players. This surely won't be the case now with potential visas for travel and work outside the EU?

The pound at a 30 year low, 100 euro will now buy you 81 pounds compared to 75 pounds yesterday. That's a huge jump in a matter of hours.

What happens to the north? To Scotland? Will they get independence referendums? Sinn Fein have already called both north and south for a United Ireland referendum.

[pineapple stu]

Will we need visas to go to England?
Most non-EU countries in Europe have visas on arrival now - so I presume worst case, your passport gets stamped and on you go? Not much longer than at present. Don't know how it works in the north though.

The Premiership issue has been mentioned before alright - though ironically, it could arguably benefit the national team, in which case it'd be trumpted as one of the successes of Brexit. Though obviously that's not really an important issue in the greater scheme of things.

Cameron resigns, Farage says they made up the bit about having an extra £350m a year.

Interesting times ahead though!

[dahamsta]

I genuinely wasn't expecting it, I thought sense would prevail.

It'll create havoc. Or it won't. Definitely one or the other.

[pineapple stu]

It'll create havoc. Or it won't. Definitely one or the other.
Good summary. Sterling plummeted 10% or so against various currencies on opening - and within a couple of hours had made up half that drop again.

So - I dunno.

xe.com has crashed though.

[BonnieShels]

WE still have the CTA. So there's gonna be no extra checks for us. But personally I hope that it becomes an absolute ball-ache for British passport holders to go anywhere now.

[The Fly]

Nicola Sturgeon just all but confirmed a second independence referendum.

[dahamsta]

Good summary. Sterling plummeted 10% or so against various currencies on opening - and within a couple of hours had made up half that drop again.

I had to stop the wife going on a shopping spree, god only knows where it'll be in a couple days when the stuff she buys actually ships, and payment is taken. Which isn't to say I won't be going on a spree myself in a few days.

The dollar is still killing my business though. I need Trump to get in an ruin the country so I can cut costs. :)


Nicola Sturgeon just all but confirmed a second independence referendum.

I won't be holding my breath, but if she follows through on it I'll be delighted. It's time for Scotland to move on, definitely.

[Real ale Madrid]

Won't there be a second referendum soon? That's what happens here when we rejected European treaties - I assume pressure the UK will come under pressure from the rest around to try again!

[pineapple stu]

It's possible - but it strikes me as dangerous. Multiple referenda "until you get the answer right" is surely one of the reasons the EU has declined in popularity in recent years.

[davidatrb]

I know nothing about politics or economics, but everyone has an opinion so why can't I!

What will happen is

1. Britain will be the laughing stock of the World for a while until USA elect Trump to deflect the attention from UK's crazy referendum.
2. The markets and exchange rates dropped in panic last night but will slowly recover a little this week as ppl slowly realise things won't change so drastically, so quickly.
3. UK will spend decades and billions of pounds renegotiating all the trade and travel agreements that they had for free as part of the EU.
4. The UK is a big economy, they will be okay and continue to grow strong, but a little isolated.
5. The EU is a bigger/stronger economy and will also continue to grow, and probably grow faster, so over time the UK will probably become a little left behind.

[BonnieShels]

It's possible - but it strikes me as dangerous. Multiple referenda "until you get the answer right" is surely one of the reasons the EU has declined in popularity in recent years.


Just confirmed that she's looking into all options to keep Scotland in the EU. ie, indyref2.

The thing is, the Scotland that (stupidly) voted to remain in the UK 18 months ago was part of the EU. Scotland now faces being taken out of the EU against its will. This is not the equivalence of Nice2.

There has been a "material change in circumstance". Scotland deserves the right to vote again given the shafting they are gonna get by this Tory government.

I can't wait for all the CAP payments to rich landowners to dry up now. That'll learn them.

[passinginterest]

If you're interested in the technicalities of the process this is useful: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/577971/EPRS_BRI(2016)577971_EN.pdf

[BonnieShels]

This is deadly. A politicos wet dream. The whole thing is going to be chaos. Love it.


More on joint efforts by Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, to secure some kind of referendum opt-out for Scotland and London.

Here’s what Sturgeon said:

I have made it clear to the prime minister this morning that the Scottish government must be fully and directly involved in any and all decisions about the next steps that the UK government intends to take.

We will also be seeking direct discussions with the EU institutions and its member states including the earliest possible meeting with the President of the European Commission.

I also be communicated over the weekend with each EU member state to make clear that Scotland has voted to stay in the EU and I intend to discussion all options for doing so.

I have also spoken this morning with [London] mayor Sadiq Khan and he is clear that he shares this objective for London, so there is clear common cause between us.

Khan’s office confirmed that he had talked to Sturgeon about the need for Scotland and London to be involved in Brexit negotiations.

— Heather Stewart (@GuardianHeather)
June 24, 2016
Spokesman for @SadiqKhan confirms he has spoken to @NicolaSturgeon about need for Scotland+London to have seat at Brexit negotiating table.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe?page=with:block-576d0151e4b0f4303810995b#block-576d0151e4b0f4303810995b

[pineapple stu]

I was talking about a second UK referendum on leaving the EU, which I presume is what Real Ale was talking about.

A second referendum on Scottish independence makes sense in a way, given that this is a big change compared to what was there when they voted last.

[BonnieShels]

I was talking about a second UK referendum on leaving the EU, which I presume is what Real Ale was talking about.

A second referendum on Scottish independence makes sense in a way, given that this is a big change compared to what was there when they voted last.

I read it as a second ScotRef.

[BonnieShels]

This is gas:


For Jim Plows, in Clacton, Essex, the news of Brexit this morning triggered “panic stations”.

Despite voting to leave Europe, the 77-year-old said he was surprised by the news. His wife, Pam, said her first thoughts as the results came in was: “Oh dear.”

The retired couple from Jaywick, in Essex, were among several visitors to Clacton pier to say they were concerned about the process for Britain leaving the EU.

“The next year will be a worry,” said Jim Plows.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/24/eu-referendum-brexit-live-europe-leave-remain-britain

[bennocelt]

I guess i must be the only one here that thinks this is a good decision. The EU has talked about reform since the early 90s.................perhaps they might listen now?
Its not a coincidence that a lot of working class areas returned a high exit vote, which says a lot, and not all of it blamed on the usual "he is must a bigot guff" that the media like to play.
Well done to the UK

[pineapple stu]

This is gas:



http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/24/eu-referendum-brexit-live-europe-leave-remain-britain
Arguably, that's exactly the kind of thing you'd expect to see in the Guardian, I think.


I guess i must be the only one here that thinks this is a good decision. The EU has talked about reform since the early 90s.................perhaps they might listen now?
Its not a coincidence that a lot of working class areas returned a high exit vote, which says a lot, and not all of it blamed on the usual "he is must a biogt guff" that the media like to play.
Well done to the UK
No, I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing either. (To be honest, I don't really know if it's good or bad). I'm generally Euro-sceptic and the idea of the EU getting a root up the hole is a good thing.

I think the EU has irreparably ruined Greece - granted, the Greeks seem like complete financial nutjobs anyway. I think mass immigration is a bad thing, and it's interesting that this sentiment is starting to grow across Europe. Merkel has a lot to answer for there (and I know the Brits have been "importing" from the Commonwealth since shortly after the war). These are fairly major issues that the EU are just railroading through.

I think a way will be found for the rough status quo to continue on more or less as before. People said Denmark and Sweden would be stupid not to join the euro; they didn't join and 10/15 years later, they're grand. I think stories like that have helped convince people that the horror stories simply won't happen if the UK leaves the EU.

[backstothewall]

The north has run out of passport forms

[bennocelt]

Arguably, that's exactly the kind of thing you'd expect to see in the Guardian, I think.


No, I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing either. (To be honest, I don't really know if it's good or bad). I'm generally Euro-sceptic and the idea of the EU getting a root up the hole is a good thing.

I think the EU has irreparably ruined Greece - granted, the Greeks seem like complete financial nutjobs anyway. I think mass immigration is a bad thing, and it's interesting that this sentiment is starting to grow across Europe. Merkel has a lot to answer for there (and I know the Brits have been "importing" from the Commonwealth since shortly after the war). These are fairly major issues that the EU are just railroading through.

I think a way will be found for the rough status quo to continue on more or less as before. People said Denmark and Sweden would be stupid not to join the euro; they didn't join and 10/15 years later, they're grand. I think stories like that have helped convince people that the horror stories simply won't happen if the UK leaves the EU.

I dont have to remind you where I live, ha ha!! Doing just fine and dandy here in our little chocolate kingdom:o
You might even bump into the PM on the train, that is if anyone knows what he looks like

[pineapple stu]

You might even bump into the PM on the train, that is if anyone knows what he looks like
Pfft. Sure you can bump into our President getting some cash to go to the match. That is, if anyone can see down that low.

[bennocelt]

Pfft. Sure you can bump into our President getting some cash to go to the match. That is, if anyone can see down that low.

Ha ha yes I guess, but the train would be half an hour late for a start!

[Real ale Madrid]

I guess i must be the only one here that thinks this is a good decision. The EU has talked about reform since the early 90s.................perhaps they might listen now?
Its not a coincidence that a lot of working class areas returned a high exit vote, which says a lot, and not all of it blamed on the usual "he is must a bigot guff" that the media like to play.
Well done to the UK

What reform are Britain looking for? Britain have pretty much opted out of all the main trade agreements except the ones that are handy for them - fishing, agri etc - which they will now lose anyway. They negotiate their own trade agreements outside the eu, set their own taxes, have their own currency. They got way more from Europe then they put in yet still wanted reform. Mental.

[Stuttgart88]

I'm critical of many aspects of the EU. As a kind of medium-soft leftie I think the EU has become too right wing in the last decade but one reason I have long liked the EU is because for a long time it dampened nationalism. Since the EZ crisis it has really only fertilised nationalism again so it only has itself to blame for this. Let's see where it ends up though. Europe was slower to recover than the UK, but the UK recovery is fragile, imbalanced and debt-fuelled. The EU is growing again.

In the UK itself I think poorer people have been duped into voting against their best interests, but who am I to argue in my relatively comfortable London bubble?

For me though the argument of taking back control is a total con-trick. The UK is a sham of a democracy. Here's why I think so:
- The country doesn't have a constitution
- The most unpopular party in the land wins a majority with 25% of the vote, due to first past the post
- This party is funded by billionaire tax dodgers and wealthy financial vested interests
- At the same time they cut official public funding to the Opposition and pass law curtailing Union funding
- The party is endorsed by billionaire vested interests in the media; Opposition is either ridiculed or demonised
- This and the last government bypass Commons by passing law by Statutory Instrument (a technicality that avoids Commons debate); use of this measure has increased exponentially, starting with Labour and escalating since 2010
- When the unelected House of Lords pressurises government into backing down (e.g., disability benefit cuts), Cameron threatens to add more unelected Lords, but all Tory supporters, just to add numbers on his side
- Lords can only recommend, it can't actually make anything happen
- Regular filibustering is allowed to defeat Opposition motions in Commons

And so on, not to mention NI and Scotland having to abide by a decision they voted against. An Honours system that knights people like Philip Green and Lynton Crosby - the Australian who orchestrated the same fear campaign in 2015 that Cameron used in the referendum, and whose firm orchestrated an overtly racist mayoral campaign against Sadiq Khan.

This referendum had nothing to do with respect for popular concerns. It was all about Cameron trying to control some headbangers in his own party. He put his party before his country, and his party won.

Now a bunch of neo-con nutters like Gove (who privatised public legal aid funding to the poor)*, Liam Fox et al are being given the keys to the country. Boris has no principles, he's just a self-interested egotist, out for himself only.

The EU - despite its faults - provided the governance checks and balances that the UK lacks. Without the EU there is no effective governance mechanism to protect the UK from its own undemocratic and illiberal instincts. That's why I voted Remain.

But hey, we beat Italy :)


*and in fairness Gove's prison reforms make sense.

[bennocelt]

What reform are Britain looking for? Britain have pretty much opted out of all the main trade agreements except the ones that are handy for them - fishing, agri etc - which they will now lose anyway. They negotiate their own trade agreements outside the eu, set their own taxes, have their own currency. They got way more from Europe then they put in yet still wanted reform. Mental.

The key word there is negotiate, in negotiation you have to give some leeway as well.....all agreements in one way or another is to cede some sort of position. Now they can negotiate without having to worry about upsetting Frau Merkel

As mentioned, part of the UK where a lot of EU money went to, like Swansea, voted overwhelmingly to exit. Just because they have "got" something doesn't necessarily mean it trickled down.
I guess some think they could do without that extra level of bureaucracy.

It might work, probably wont, but its nice to see the suits in Brussels squirm.

[Real ale Madrid]

It might work, probably wont, but its nice to see the suits in Brussels squirm.

As sure isn't that what its all about at the end of the day eh ? Forget the consequences.

[bennocelt]

As sure isn't that what its all about at the end of the day eh ? Forget the consequences.

yeah, I am expecting the world to end any day now, David Cameron said so, I dont know how I will be able to manage

[Real ale Madrid]

yeah, I am expecting the world to end any day now, David Cameron said so, I dont know how I will be able to manage

Glib.

There will be consequences though for ordinary people - I see Morgan Stanley have already begun the process moving functions from London to Dublin and Frankfurt. 2,000 jobs going out of London. Maybe they can write a letter to Nigel Farage.

[bennocelt]

Glib.

There will be consequences though for ordinary people - I see Morgan Stanley have already begun the process moving functions from London to Dublin and Frankfurt. 2,000 jobs going out of London. Maybe they can write a letter to Nigel Farage.

Markets always react in the moment.........but lets see Real Ale......

Ordinary people? I guess the 52% had none of them?

[pineapple stu]

Glib.

There will be consequences though for ordinary people - I see Morgan Stanley have already begun the process moving functions from London to Dublin and Frankfurt. 2,000 jobs going out of London. Maybe they can write a letter to Nigel Farage.
As of a few minutes ago anyway, the official line (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/morgan-stanley-brexit-eu-referendum-jobs-dublin-frankfurt-a7100911.html) was that they had no plans for this as yet.

[Real ale Madrid]

As of a few minutes ago anyway, the official line (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/morgan-stanley-brexit-eu-referendum-jobs-dublin-frankfurt-a7100911.html) was that they had no plans for this as yet.

Saw it on multiple sources - can't trust much these days - my bad. Still, such things would not be a surprise - we will have to wait I guess.

[eekers]

Great news for Irish footballers in the Premier League. Because of pre existing arrangements before the EU Irish players don't need a work permit.
Irish players will be in demand as never before.

[BonnieShels]

Just what we need more players playing in crap leagues.

Morgan Stanley hinted at this before the referendum. Last week some time. It is no surprise that the rumours are flying now.

[Eminence Grise]

Was that not Morgan Cranley, Bonnie?:D

Sit tight for six months. There'll be a lot of Chicken Licken stuff for the next while while the serious work goes on invisibly behind the scenes. Scotland the North are going to be interesting.

But, hell, I'm surprised it passed. I mean how could anybody in their right mind vote for anything wanted by Farage, Boris and Gove? Every time I look at Gove I think of a spineless burgomeister in 1938 Bavaria, happy to go along with whatever political movement gives him the best shot at power.

[The Fly]

The north has run out of passport forms

Source?

[backstothewall]

Any post office! Particularly in Unionist areas. I went in to pick one up in our solidly Unionist town for Mrs Backstothewall at 9am and the 3 people in front of me in the queue were after the same. They ran out of forms before lunchtime apparently.

[SkStu]

I guess i must be the only one here that thinks this is a good decision. The EU has talked about reform since the early 90s.................perhaps they might listen now?
Its not a coincidence that a lot of working class areas returned a high exit vote, which says a lot, and not all of it blamed on the usual "he is must a bigot guff" that the media like to play.
Well done to the UK

Agree. I posted the following on facebook earlier this morning.


I cant help but feel that the Leave vote by the UK is the right decision for them to make, notwithstanding the likely break up of the Union. Brexit has been dumbed down and painted by mainstream and social media as a nationalist/far right rising but it goes far deeper than that.

The EU is past its sell by date and has become a faceless conglomerate. Its mandate has continued to creep in scope year by year and we have seen a resultant move away from guiding principles of free market and free movement into territory that Britain has, rightly, claimed for years impinges upon a nations sovereignty. Resistance to this scope creep is met with threats and fear mongering (Nice treaty and Ireland anyone?).

The EU is ineffective at dealing with crises and ones that matter deeply to a large number of average people, whether British or otherwise. The economic collapse that demonstrated to poor countries like Greece, Spain and Ireland who the masters and servants were is one example. The immigration crisis is another - no matter what side of the divide you fall on with respect to immigration noone could be satisfied with how the EU has responded. Thousands dying and many homeless.

In addition, Britain has always been the reluctant European. This reputation came long before mass immigration and the irrational EU expansion became an issue for the state and the people. They have never fully engaged or bought into the concept of Europe. "What has the EU ever done for us?" is a very legitimate question for the UK to ask. We should not be surprised by this decision on that basis alone.

It won't be an easy journey for the UK. They face the very real possibility of a break-up of the kingdom. The impact on Northern Ireland is significant too and of course the domino effect impact on (the Republic of) Ireland. Economically they will be fine in the long run. Geopolitically this destabilises Europe but i dont know what real risks will arise.
Interesting times. History in our lifetime and a decision that kids will be studying in the impacts of at school (on Mars) in a few hundred years time.

[Stuttgart88]

That's a fair assessment and nobody is sorry to see the EU get a kicking. But the consequences of the EU's failure is to hand the keys to the far right. That's what the EU's real success has been. It's why it was needed and still is.

Anyway, I love Twitter on days like these. Stuff like

"When ****ing a dead pig isn't the stupidest thing you've ever done"

and

"Damn you David Cameron, I can't even celebrate your resignation"

Made me laugh.

[Wolfman]

Seen it all now.

https://twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/746316224024481792

[CityRebel]

I genuinely wasn't expecting it, I thought sense would prevail.

It'll create havoc. Or it won't. Definitely one or the other.

Democracy has prevailed. The sky hasn't fallen in.

[tricky_colour]

I'm critical of many aspects of the EU. As a kind of medium-soft leftie I think the EU has become too right wing in the last decade but one reason I have long liked the EU is because for a long time it dampened nationalism. Since the EZ crisis it has really only fertilised nationalism again so it only has itself to blame for this. Let's see where it ends up though. Europe was slower to recover than the UK, but the UK recovery is fragile, imbalanced and debt-fuelled. The EU is growing again.

In the UK itself I think poorer people have been duped into voting against their best interests, but who am I to argue in my relatively comfortable London bubble?

For me though the argument of taking back control is a total con-trick. The UK is a sham of a democracy. Here's why I think so:
- The country doesn't have a constitution
- The most unpopular party in the land wins a majority with 25% of the vote, due to first past the post
- This party is funded by billionaire tax dodgers and wealthy financial vested interests
- At the same time they cut official public funding to the Opposition and pass law curtailing Union funding
- The party is endorsed by billionaire vested interests in the media; Opposition is either ridiculed or demonised
- This and the last government bypass Commons by passing law by Statutory Instrument (a technicality that avoids Commons debate); use of this measure has increased exponentially, starting with Labour and escalating since 2010
- When the unelected House of Lords pressurises government into backing down (e.g., disability benefit cuts), Cameron threatens to add more unelected Lords, but all Tory supporters, just to add numbers on his side
- Lords can only recommend, it can't actually make anything happen
- Regular filibustering is allowed to defeat Opposition motions in Commons

And so on, not to mention NI and Scotland having to abide by a decision they voted against. An Honours system that knights people like Philip Green and Lynton Crosby - the Australian who orchestrated the same fear campaign in 2015 that Cameron used in the referendum, and whose firm orchestrated an overtly racist mayoral campaign against Sadiq Khan.

This referendum had nothing to do with respect for popular concerns. It was all about Cameron trying to control some headbangers in his own party. He put his party before his country, and his party won.

Now a bunch of neo-con nutters like Gove (who privatised public legal aid funding to the poor)*, Liam Fox et al are being given the keys to the country. Boris has no principles, he's just a self-interested egotist, out for himself only.

The EU - despite its faults - provided the governance checks and balances that the UK lacks. Without the EU there is no effective governance mechanism to protect the UK from its own undemocratic and illiberal instincts. That's why I voted Remain.

But hey, we beat Italy :)


*and in fairness Gove's prison reforms make sense.


What checks and balances? Zero hours contracts?

The EU did nothing for the people.

One of the reasons they rejected it.

It could not really be any worse than it is.

The EU protect nobody from anything, that is the problem.

You seem to think it is some sort of Guardian angel, but all we have seen is rising inequality in the UK whilst in the EU.

As you yourself point out, Gove privatised public legal aid funding to the poor, were was the lovely EU to protect the poor?

Nowhere to be seen.

Fact is many people had nothing left to lose.


"Without the EU there is no effective governance mechanism to protect the UK from its own undemocratic and illiberal instincts."

Corrected to:-

"Within the EU there was no effective governance mechanism to protect the UK from its own undemocratic and illiberal instincts."

Really the EU has done next to nothing.

Worker have been stripped of pretty much every right one way or another.

[tricky_colour]

Maybe it will bring about an early General Election?

[The Fly]

Here's an interesting take on the whole situation which appeared in the Guardian comments section:



Guardian comment:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Maybe it will bring about an early General Election?

I was thinking that earlier, that instead of of a second referendum they could try and do it another way, by calling a GE and making EU status the #1 issue. A fairly huge majority of the current Parliament were Remain voters.

[Wolfman]

What checks and balances? Zero hours contracts?

The EU did nothing for the people.

One of the reasons they rejected it.

It could not really be any worse than it is.

The EU protect nobody from anything, that is the problem.

You seem to think it is some sort of Guardian angel, but all we have seen is rising inequality in the UK whilst in the EU.

As you yourself point out, Gove privatised public legal aid funding to the poor, were was the lovely EU to protect the poor?

Nowhere to be seen.

Fact is many people had nothing left to lose.


"Without the EU there is no effective governance mechanism to protect the UK from its own undemocratic and illiberal instincts."

Corrected to:-

"Within the EU there was no effective governance mechanism to protect the UK from its own undemocratic and illiberal instincts."

Really the EU has done next to nothing.

Worker have been stripped of pretty much every right one way or another.


Complete garbage, no workers rights in Britain via their domestic Parliament since 1979.
The only ones imposed have been via the EU.

[DannyInvincible]

The British government has lost its appeal in the UK's Supreme Court, meaning the British parliament will have to vote on triggering Article 50: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/24/supreme-court-brexit-ruling-parliament-vote-article-50

The devolved governments have also had their cases rejected, meaning there is no legal requirement to consult them on Brexit. Essentially, it means they won't have a veto and their will can be by-passed by Westminster.

Alex Salmond is talking up the likelihood of a second Scottish independence referendum, as is probably to be expected: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-38723261


Former SNP leader Alex Salmond says a second independence referendum in Scotland was "very likely" if the government rejected its amendments to the Article 50 bill.

He said very few people voted for Britain to withdraw from the European market place, and his party is set to table 50 amendments to the proposed legislation.

Mr Salmond said if the government decides "to bulldoze" the bill through the House of Commons, does "not take on board any of the amendments put forward" or is not interested in the compromise proposal for Scotland "to remain in the single market place and ensure Scottish jobs and prosperity, then I think in Nicola Sturgeon's words 'an independence referendum becomes very likely'."

He added: "If Theresa May throws down the gauntlet, Nicola Sturgeon will pick it up."

[Wolfman]

Some politician in the North there just suggested a second referendum, just caught the end of a news item.

[DannyInvincible]

Any idea who it was or which party?

I don't think that would go down well across the water. There's pretty much no chance of it happening. Neither Labour nor the Tories would entertain the notion of having a second referendum. Labour's position is pretty much, "Yeah, we supported Remain, but we have to accept the will of the people now." And they sort of do for their own survival as a credible force in English politics; if Labour pursued the Lib Dems' route of demanding a second referendum, I'd only see them losing further votes to UKIP.

If the Union is to persist, I do still think regional exceptions or special arrangements should be made as the political culture and climate in England is vastly different to that in Scotland and the north of Ireland. What the English might think of as good for them (although I doubt the utterly-bonkers idea of a hard Brexit will have a silver lining), will very certainly be disastrous for Scotland and Ireland.

[BonnieShels]

May won't visit the North before triggering A50. Not like her to not keep her word. A thoroughly useless PM.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0327/862880-may-sturgeon-brexit/