Brexit - The End of the United Kingdom?

[backstothewall]

I should have added a #2.1 above- ie that even if there was a NI constituency in the 2019 Euro poll I doubt that any Unionist would run. DUP as their 2 main convictions are anti-Dublin and Brussels; UUP because it would drain their support to the DUP. The off-chance of keeping Jim Nicholson's expenses pales by comparison. As there would be only 2 seats not 3, SF might well get close to 2 quotas on the 1st count

I don't see where you get the idea that there would only be 2 seats from. On my reading the 2 extra seats are due by virtue of the population of the 26 counties being proportionally higher within an EU with 60m less people in it after the UK leaves. If we were to continue to be represented as part of the brexit deals i would have assumed that would be further seats in addition to the 13 agreed this week.

It being the EU it would be a bespoke arrangement so who knows what it could end up being. I guess the 2 additional seats could simply be granted to the north, but it seems more likely we would retain the status quo in the short term, or Ireland could be reapportioned to take account of an increased population that includes the north. That would be roughly 6.5m people which would see us between Denmark who will be getting 14, and Bulgaria who will be getting 17 under the new arrangements.

[Gather round]

I don't see where you get the idea that there would only be 2 seats from

I explained above. There will probably be only 2 net extra seats in the next EuroPoll, and it will suit FF/ FG to 'allocate' them as I described. The other stuff you mention is interesting but the big boys will ignore it for now

[backstothewall]

I explained above. There will probably be only 2 net extra seats in the next EuroPoll, and it will suit FF/ FG to 'allocate' them as I described. The other stuff you mention is interesting but the big boys will ignore it for now

If you accept the hypothetical premise that NI was included in an islandwide Irish election, it follows that there would have to have been some apportionment for the extra population beforehand. To suggest otherwise is illogical, even in the discussion of a hypothetical.

More DUP tail wagging the British dog today. Barnier should walk away and advise the EU to start preparing for WTO arrangements. May can't deliver any sort of deal that the EU would be interested in.

[Gather round]

If you accept the hypothetical premise that NI was included in an islandwide Irish election, it follows that there would have to have been some apportionment for the extra population beforehand. To suggest otherwise is illogical, even in the discussion of a hypothetical

Apologies for the delay. I was just assuming that a) Ireland would get extra seats after Britain leaves then b) those seats would be geographically in the South to start with, to benefit FG over SF


More DUP tail wagging the British dog today. Barnier should walk away and advise the EU to start preparing for WTO arrangements. May can't deliver any sort of deal that the EU would be interested in.

Agreed, it does look that way

[mypost]

The UK government haven't taken too well to the Airbus ultimatum last week. Just to give them a little reminder of what's at stake before their government goes to Brussels this week. Only 14,000 jobs. Not to mention the ones already lost, and the ones we don't hear of. It seems amazing to think that 2 years down the line, and they are no more prepared for leaving the EU now than on the day of the poll.

Like most of us, I think they're bonkers to abandon ship. Amid the fallout and the recriminations, some of the reasons they gave for voting for it were ridiculous. The best I heard was one voter just "wanted a change". Well he'll get a change, just maybe not the one he was looking for, or promised by the Brexiteers.

However, I watched the count on the night itself, and how various Irish and EU politicians reacted to the result in the time since. Many of them were telling us to vote for the Lisbon Treaty all those years ago, their supporters were waving the tricolour around Dublin Castle on the day the electorate complied with their demands, and are now crying into their cappuccinos because the Brits have used the specific clause in it to leave the club. And it's no defence saying that it wasn't foreseen. The clause was in it and the Brits have always been strongly eurosceptic, so when they got the chance to leave, they took it.

Karma.

[Charlie Darwin]

The UK government haven't taken too well to the Airbus ultimatum last week. Just to give them a little reminder of what's at stake before their government goes to Brussels this week. Only 14,000 jobs. Not to mention the ones already lost, and the ones we don't hear of. It seems amazing to think that 2 years down the line, and they are no more prepared for leaving the EU now than on the day of the poll.

Like most of us, I think they're bonkers to abandon ship. Amid the fallout and the recriminations, some of the reasons they gave for voting for it were ridiculous. The best I heard was one voter just "wanted a change". Well he'll get a change, just maybe not the one he was looking for, or promised by the Brexiteers.

However, I watched the count on the night itself, and how various Irish and EU politicians reacted to the result in the time since. Many of them were telling us to vote for the Lisbon Treaty all those years ago, their supporters were waving the tricolour around Dublin Castle on the day the electorate complied with their demands, and are now crying into their cappuccinos because the Brits have used the specific clause in it to leave the club. And it's no defence saying that it wasn't foreseen. The clause was in it and the Brits have always been strongly eurosceptic, so when they got the chance to leave, they took it.

Karma.
With the loss of Airbus, their chances of getting into space aviation look limited too.

[The Fly]

The **** is hitting the fan.

[backstothewall]

Barnier should walk away and advise the EU to start preparing for WTO arrangements. May can't deliver any sort of deal that the EU would be interested in.

28th February i posted that. Has anything really changed since then?

The only thing that might possibly have changed is that I'm no longer convinced May could even deliver a deal that the EU wouldn't be interested in.

Seems unlikely she could successfully deliver so much as a bowl of sugar to 11 Downing Street.

[ArdeeBhoy]

Karma.

How so?

[NeverFeltBetter]

I see there's a story going around about polling showing a swing to "Remain" now. I don't see a re-run of the referendum happening but is it beyond the bounds of possibility that a proposed EU agreement be put to the people on a "Yes/No" basis? Let the population declare an assent to a customs union if the appetite is there, or an assent for No Deal unpredictability if that's what they really want.

I'm also surprised, seeing Nicola Sturgeon pop back up in the news lately, that no EU officials have stirred the pot by saying they'd welcome an independent Scotland into the fold.

There's still indications that, in the event of a No Deal the British will try and pull a "We're not putting customs checks on the border, you can do what you want" position, so it bears repeating that such an action would be against the rules of the WTO and would leave Britain "vulnerable to widespread litigation (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/no-tariffs-post-brexit-on-eu-imports-would-break-wto-rules-1.3307267)".

[The Fly]

I see there's a story going around about polling showing a swing to "Remain" now. I don't see a re-run of the referendum happening but is it beyond the bounds of possibility that a proposed EU agreement be put to the people on a "Yes/No" basis? Let the population declare an assent to a customs union if the appetite is there, or an assent for No Deal unpredictability if that's what they really want.


It's not beyond the realms of possibility but it's highly improbable. A 'No' result would just be used as a vehicle to overturn the result of the original referendum.

The problem in Britain is that you have a policy without a government, not to mention that most of Parliament itself is in favour of Remain. The same probably applies to the civil service and possibly the Judiciary. In addition to this you have the fact that those who led the campaign to Leave largely 'disappeared' after, when in normal circumstances they would have had the responsibility for its implementation.

In a country where Parliament is sovereign the confusion and chaos (whilst to be expected to some degree because of the scale of the constitutional change) is therefore hardly surprising. It also raises questions about the wisdom of having referendums in such a political set up in the first place.

[The Fly]

Here's something to break the Brexit ice -

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/43514657_895210057351132_5398541383017431040_n.jpg ?_nc_cat=109&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr3-1.xx&oh=c06027c2a060b42dbf4635be123cee9d&oe=5C827FFB

[The Fly]

https://groups.tapatalk-cdn.com/smilies/58782/1536808120.423-smiley.gif

1063095083908636673

[backstothewall]

Defeat in the Commons looks inevitable. God knows what happens next

2750

[dahamsta]

Chaos, hopefully. I'm sorry, but the country needs a funt up the arse for that referendum, even with the fraud. It was always going to be bad for Britain. Always.

Who's the moronic Lib Dem?

[backstothewall]

Chaos, hopefully.

https://i.imgur.com/2mm5zmA.jpg


Who's the moronic Lib Dem?

Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne)

[dahamsta]

https://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/eastbourne-mp-stephen-lloyd-resigns-the-lib-dem-party-whip-1-8731000

[peadar1987]

https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/

Classy.

[Eminence Grise]

Theresa May faces a no confidence vote of the party tonight. I teach pol comms to postgrads and at this stage I'm flipping clueless for predictions - it'd easier to predict the end to Game of Thrones.

The Tories - the gits that keep on giving.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/theresa-may-i-will-contest-leadership-vote-with-everything-i-ve-got-1.3728601

[Real ale Madrid]

My Prediction:

1. May wins No confidence motion

2. Labour / SNP bring a no confidence motion against the Government - it is defeated.

3. Brexit Deal is brought before Parliament and despite 1. & 2. it is defeated.

4. Utter dysfunction.

The only thing that will save a hard Brexit at this stage is a delay to Article 50 and a people's vote imo. Otherwise it is WTO tariffs for the UK and God knows what for the border.

[peadar1987]

My Prediction:

1. May wins No confidence motion

2. Labour / SNP bring a no confidence motion against the Government - it is defeated.

3. Brexit Deal is brought before Parliament and despite 1. & 2. it is defeated.

4. Utter dysfunction.

The only thing that will save a hard Brexit at this stage is a delay to Article 50 and a people's vote imo. Otherwise it is WTO tariffs for the UK and God knows what for the border.

But blue passports!

[ifk101]

The only thing that will save a hard Brexit at this stage is a delay to Article 50 and a people's vote imo. Otherwise it is WTO tariffs for the UK and God knows what for the border.

In the scenario of a no-deal Brexit, did not the UK government give commitments to proceed to phase two of the Brexit negotiations that ruled out a border in the absence of a deal? And in the absence of a deal, this effectively meant continued alignment to the EU? I don't see how it is possible for the UK to break cleanly away from the EU and to adhere to past agreements/ commitments made.

[peadar1987]

In the scenario of a no-deal Brexit, did not the UK government give commitments to proceed to phase two of the Brexit negotiations that ruled out a border in the absence of a deal? And in the absence of a deal, this effectively meant continued alignment to the EU? I don't see how it is possible for the UK to break cleanly away from the EU and to adhere to past agreements/ commitments made.

The whole thing is a shambles. They've made ironclad commitments that are mutually incompatible. And the loudest voices over here seem to be swinging towards a no deal that closes the borders completely and sinks the country on a point of principle.

[osarusan]

May survives a vote of no confidence, pledges to step down before next general election.

[CraftyToePoke]

2. Labour / SNP bring a no confidence motion against the Government - it is defeated.

Can't see Corbyn / Lab playing this shot unless they know its going to win, and even if it does, what is their prize ? To possibly inherit this spiraling horror show, which is entirely of their Tory opponents making & end up blamed for its outcomes as well.

If they induce another vote, the external optics give them the moral high ground but within Labour itself, didn't 30% vote leave also ? So they'll be watchful of that primarily too, and how to bring it about, if at all.

There are, few, if any good moves here, for any of them.

They, Labour, are more open to Irish unity also, so they dont want to drive the DUP back into the arms of the Tories at a key moment.

Its gripping entertainment, if it was a TV show, it'd be hailed as genius, trouble is, its real and its happening.

[CraftyToePoke]

I really think, May's government put a lot of eggs in the basket that at some crunch point, the EU would sacrifice little Ireland to secure relations with their giant economy and let Ireland unify if they want out of the ensuing arrangements if needs be. We are closer and closer to end game without that having happened.

The Tories, love or loathe them, have always been ruthlessly capable in their objectives, what those objectives are and how to achieve them. That's gone, that's what's new here, they can't collectively identify or secure their desired outcome and its fun to watch.

[Real ale Madrid]

Can't see Corbyn / Lab playing this shot unless they know its going to win, and even if it does, what is their prize ? To possibly inherit this spiraling horror show, which is entirely of their Tory opponents making & end up blamed for its outcomes as well.

If they induce another vote, the external optics give them the moral high ground but within Labour itself, didn't 30% vote leave also ? So they'll be watchful of that primarily too, and how to bring it about, if at all.

There are, few, if any good moves here, for any of them.

They, Labour, are more open to Irish unity also, so they dont want to drive the DUP back into the arms of the Tories at a key moment.

Its gripping entertainment, if it was a TV show, it'd be hailed as genius, trouble is, its real and its happening.

Agree with this - it is a possibility however that Labour win an election , delay article 50 and go to a people's vote - not very likely, but more likely than it happening from within a Tory led government.

I can't for the life of me understand how a comprehensive defeat of the Brexit deal wouldn't trigger a GE. The Government over there is not functioning at all.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I was/am worried that the EU would eventually throw Ireland under the bus (it certainly seems at times that the pro-Brexit lot in the UK thought they would), but all indications are that the EU leaders have basically told May to go jump over the last few days. The persistent refrain of "The UK won't tell us exactly what they actually want" is very indicative of how nonsensical this has all become.

The UK parliament isn't going to approve this deal so its either an election, a change of government without one or just blundering into a "no deal" exit. I'd wager it will be the first option with the campaign turning into a de facto Peoples Vote.

[Mr A]

So far we have had full backing from the rest of the EU. The British are helping us here by being a bit of a mess and being aggressive and arrogant so making the EU more inclined than ever to have our backs.

The whole think is an insane act of national self-harm based on nostalgia for a Britain that never was.

[Gather round]

Morning snowflakes :rolleyes: (well if only on the highground)


but within Labour itself, didn't 30% vote leave also ? So they'll be watchful of that primarily too, and how to bring it about, if at all

Many of those past Labour voters will have already moved to the Tories, often briefly via UKIP. I live in one of the strongest Leave areas in the West Midlands, Dudley. In our local elections this year the Tories took almost all of the collapsing UKIP vote.


They, Labour, are more open to Irish unity also, so they dont want to drive the DUP back into the arms of the Tories at a key moment

The traditional model doesn't really apply. Just because Corbyn/ McDonnell/ Abbott were ardent pro-Shinners 30 years ago doesn't mean they'd make a UI priority in Government in 2019, given all the other likely crises. While for all the baloney about preserving the UK, Tory politicians- and increasingly their voters- are getting well peed off with the DUP's antics

[NeverFeltBetter]

The EU has committed to nothing other than the following:

"It is the Union's firm determination to work speedily on a subsequent agreement that establishes by December 31, 2020, alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not need to be triggered"

But I see May is already trying to make this look like a much bigger deal than it really is. Meanwhile Arlen Foster insists she just has to "stand up to" all 27 EU member states, like it's the most natural thing in the world.

[Gather round]

Foster couldnt sell a deal/ stand up to, her DUP colleagues on Fermanagh & Omagh Council

[CraftyToePoke]

Many of those past Labour voters will have already moved to the Tories, often briefly via UKIP. I live in one of the strongest Leave areas in the West Midlands, Dudley. In our local elections this year the Tories took almost all of the collapsing UKIP vote.

I live in the East Midlands, the Shire to West Midlands, Mordor :) as it were and I offer my sympathies. As l'Anglais say, bad luck old chap.
Yeah, Tories have hoovered up the UKIP vote over this way too, after something like a 25% showing in the not too distant past at local level. I still feel there is enough of a 'Leave' contingent in Labour, that Corbyn needs to be mindful of though GR.


The traditional model doesn't really apply. Just because Corbyn/ McDonnell/ Abbott were ardent pro-Shinners 30 years ago doesn't mean they'd make a UI priority in Government in 2019, given all the other likely crises. While for all the baloney about preserving the UK, Tory politicians- and increasingly their voters- are getting well peed off with the DUP's antics

McDonnell said unity was his solution on C4 only last week though. He respected the demographics obviously, but was pretty clear where on where this should end up.

Agree re DUP, their sojourn in the London limelight has not gone well, on any front, on any level. The NI business & agriculture communities speaking favourably of Mays proposals while they just kept repeating no, no, no, was a particular highlight.

What was yours ? :)

[Gather round]

I still feel there is enough of a 'Leave' contingent in Labour, that Corbyn needs to be mindful of though GR

Indeed, but if they are 30% and falling of Labour's vote share (as suggested above) they probably can/ should be faced down. Pandering to them by pretending a better deal can be negotiated with the consistent EU in next to no time is dishonest, and pretty daft.


McDonnell said unity was his solution on C4 only last week though. He respected the demographics obviously, but was pretty clear where on where this should end up

The problem I mentioned wasn't the demographics, but simply that sorting out NI isn't likely to be a priority given other problems in the next 5-10 years. I'm sure JMD, JC and co still have the convictions of their youth ;)


Agree re DUP, their sojourn in the London limelight has not gone well, on any front, on any level. The NI business & agriculture communities speaking favourably of Mays proposals while they just kept repeating no, no, no, was a particular highlight...What was yours? :)

Forty shades of pink on Sammy Wilson's coupon as he gets ever more worked up?

[CraftyToePoke]

So we have a, no confidence, in May from Corbyn tonight.
Looks like the Tories are trying to bury it, as silly games.
Whatever next, will this saga bring us ?

[dahamsta]

Are, you u/commahorror (https://www.reddit.com/user/CommaHorror)?

[BelfastCrusader]

In the scenario of a no-deal Brexit, did not the UK government give commitments to proceed to phase two of the Brexit negotiations that ruled out a border in the absence of a deal? And in the absence of a deal, this effectively meant continued alignment to the EU? I don't see how it is possible for the UK to break cleanly away from the EU and to adhere to past agreements/ commitments made.
If there's no deal, then there is no phase 2!

[The Fly]

MPs reject Theresa May's Brexit deal by 432 votes to 202; the largest defeat for a sitting government in British history.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has tabled a vote of no confidence, which will be debated and voted on tomorrow.

[The Fly]

1085261972063600641

[NeverFeltBetter]

She's apparently likely to win that vote: the only thing hardcore Tories and DUP hate more than her deal is the idea of Corbyn being in charge. Still, if I was a Prime Minister and lost a hugely significant vote by that margin, I'd have slunk my way to Buckingham Palace out of sheer embarrassment.

[Blue Lou]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/20/exclusive-theresa-may-mulls-amending-good-friday-agreement-get/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw


Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday Agreement as part of a fresh attempt to unblock the Brexit logjam, The Daily Telegraph understands.

The Prime Minister will on Monday update Parliament on her attempts to draw up a so-called "plan B" for Brexit following cross-party talks in Westminster - and discussions with other EU leaders.

One of the proposals under consideration is rewriting the 1998 accord to assure Ireland that the UK is committed to no hard border on the island after the UK leaves the European Union in March.

The rest is behind a paywall.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I mean, even if she could do that, and even if our government went along with it, wouldn't that require some manner of referendum here?

Edit: Numerous government figures are flatly rejecting the idea of British/Irish talks separate to the EU. (https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0121/1024469-brexit-may-house-of-commons/) I was under the assumption we couldn't make agreements of such a kind separate to the EU anyway.

[Eminence Grise]

John Humphrys asked Helen McEntee in a BBC interview why Ireland shouldn't just hitch itself to the UK and leave the EU as well. Yep. That's what passes as informed comment over there. Makes me ashamed of my Manc origins....
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/john-humphrys-suggests-ireland-could-quit-eu-and-join-uk

Counter-questions for Humphrys: given that for several hundred years after the Norman invasion French was the language of the ruling class in England, why doesn't the UK throw in its lot with the French and stay in the EU? Or before that, given that the Anglo-Saxons, who gave the country its language, had just popped over from Germany to invade, why doesn't the UK throw in its lot with the Germans and stay in the EU? Bull5hit, of course, but just as informed as Humphrys.


[Edit - should have mentioned the Romans, too, but but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?]

[NeverFeltBetter]

As has become evident over the last few months, there is a very real sentiment in parts of the British media and political establishment that Ireland should know its place. And that place seems to be west Britain.

[Mr A]

In fairness to the presenter, he was putting a view across that some of the wingnut Brexiteers have been proposing. It's crazy and ignorant of course, but some of the discourse around this whole fiasco has been amazing in the worst way!

[NeverFeltBetter]

I read today that the NHS has cancelled a scheduled blood donation drive in Dover in late March/early April because of concerns over Brexit-related congestion. Only fair to say they note they have enough stock of blood in the area.

All these amendment discussions in the Commons are so blatantly disingenuous. The EU has said over and over again that they will not renegotiate or accept a watering down of the backstop. It really seems like the Tories and DUP are happy to blunder into a no-deal exit as long as they can say it's all the EU's fault.

[CraftyToePoke]

All these amendment discussions in the Commons are so blatantly disingenuous. The EU has said over and over again that they will not renegotiate or accept a watering down of the backstop. It really seems like the Tories and DUP are happy to blunder into a no-deal exit as long as they can say it's all the EU's fault.

An exercise in internal party matters, and drawing her two warring wings together more than anything, and at a moment she needed to look out, she focused completely inward & with some immediate success it must be said, but what will it get her ? Its all based upon the EU being willing to throw Ireland under the bus at some stage, as it stands. Lets see if they do. I would love if English arrogance was met with a closed door on the matter, but will it be ?

A hard crash out delivers the mother of all borders anyway, the one thing all agree on, and the Tories know this too.

[NeverFeltBetter]

More chance of a United Ireland hosting Euro 2032 than this I think: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0205/1027731-brexit-world-cup/

[NeverFeltBetter]

Had to laugh at this this morning: https://twitter.com/OwenSmith_MP/status/1105413626846986240

[backstothewall]

This is the week the Tories start eating other. Talk of a general election being in the offing. May has lost her voice again. The government's authority is in tatters.

It all reminds me of the last days of the Cowan government. Or the fall of Saigon.