Brexit - The End of the United Kingdom?

[Charlie Darwin]

I don't think anyone suggested US doesn't have good hospitals. I assume Max Factor got treatment in the US because he has loads of money and can afford to get treatment that ordinary people in any country couldn't afford.

[peadar1987]

The same WHO that spent 200 Million on Travel last year? :) And I read that on Al Jazeera of all places.
What's that got to do with anything? Their travel budget doesn't have much to do with how good they are at making reports.



I'm sure you Health Ins is fine. Mine is fine too and not that expensive. Raising Taxes by that much in CAL would be crazy. Taxes are crazy in left wing states like that as it is.I'm glad that works for you. I notice that rich people from around the world often come to the US for treatment. Max Factor in LA, CLE Clinic, Mayo in Minny. NYU Langone down the street from me. They all have their VIP centers. Why would anyone need that? I thought everyone is treated the exact same under socialized medicine? Weird.
I don't have health insurance. I don't need it because of the NHS. Whenever I go to a doctor or a hospital, I get treated, free of charge, no questions asked. I earn just above the median income in the UK and have no major chronic conditions, so I can expect to put in more than I take out, but I'm okay with that.

When you say "taxes are crazy" in Ca, I had a look. The maximum state tax rate is 13%, sales tax is 7.5%, and the bands are set much higher than they are in the UK. Our sales tax is 20% and our income tax for those earning under £43,000 is 20%. And people are okay with that. To most Europeans, American taxes seem insanely low. Countries can, and do, manage with those levels of taxation perfectly well.

As for why the super-rich travel to the USA for certain procedures, I pretty much agree with Charlie. America has great health services. For the rich. I've not been talking about that. For the majority of the population the service is poorer and more expensive per capita than a taxpayer-funded one.

[DannyInvincible]

I don't think anyone suggested US doesn't have good hospitals. I assume Max Factor got treatment in the US because he has loads of money and can afford to get treatment that ordinary people in any country couldn't afford.

Paying to go private also enables those who can afford it to avoid waiting lists that patients of socialised/universal healthcare will inevitably encounter.

[BonnieShels]

The Tories' long-term plan is working a treat then, unfortunately.

Here's something a junior doctor friend of mine wrote on Tory treatment of the NHS: https://geosociopolitico.com/2016/03/22/the-nhs-on-the-brink/



Defund, make sure things don't work, people get angry, you hand it over to private capital... As Noam Chomsky once said: "That's the standard technique of privatisation."

Which is what is happening with Bus Éireann and Irish Rail over here.

[BonnieShels]

Although they are perfectly entitled to do so, persons from the upper classes probably wouldn't tend to avail of it. They may consult for minor matters (https://patient.info/doctor/health-and-social-class) but I suspect they would generally go private for more serious issues or where there may be long waiting lists on the NHS as they can afford it.

Working class persons would generally be limited to NHS treatment due to financial restraint. This Telegraph article (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1570763/Middle-class-get-better-NHS-care-says-expert.html) (which references a report by a think-tank) claims that middle class people "dominate" the NHS, however:



This piece (https://bmdoyleblog.wordpress.com/2016/08/12/what-was-middle-class-healthcare-like-before-the-nhs/) discusses the impact the introduction of universal healthcare free at the point of service had upon the middle class:

Incidentally while reading about Tony Wilson (of Factory Records fame) earlier, I saw this tidbit:


After Wilson developed renal cancer and had one kidney removed in 2007, doctors recommended he take the drug Sutent (a.k.a. sunitinib). Manchester Primary Care NHS Trust refused to fund the £3,500 per month cost of providing the drug, while patients being treated alongside him at the Christie Hospital and living just a few miles away in Cheshire did receive funding for the medication.[8]
A number of Wilson's music industry friends, including former Happy Mondays manager Nathan McGough, their current manager Elliot Rashman and TV stars Richard Madeley and Judy Finnegan, formed a fund to help pay for Wilson's medical treatment.[8]
Wilson said: "This [Sutent] is my only real option. It is not a cure but can hold the cancer back, so I will probably be on it until I die. When they said I would have to pay £3,500 for the drugs each month, I thought where am I going to find the money? I'm the one person in this industry who famously has never made any money. I used to say 'some people make money and some make history', which is very funny until you find you can't afford to keep yourself alive. I've never paid for private healthcare because I'm a socialist. Now I find you can get tummy tucks and cosmetic surgery on the NHS but not the drugs I need to stay alive. It is a scandal."[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Wilson

[backstothewall]

Here's mine

Recently my knee popped in a 50/50 indoor soccer match. I felt it pop, not in agony but a pops a pop and I did some knee bends in the dressing room and told the guys to take me off the text list for games for the foreseeable & went home, I knew it was not good.

A&E the next day, described it to the nurse, was referred to a higher up nurse who examined me. Twisted and turned it and nearly brought tears from me, she said it was not ruptured, I repeated I felt it pop and had had a look online and felt my MCR was gone. She said no. Said to give it 4 weeks minimum and not to expect it to be pain free, after that go to a GP if I wasn't coming from it but clearly, she was sure I wouldn't need to.

I pressed her, and got nowhere. She was borderline dismissive.

GP 5 weeks or so later, I get referred for an MRI, wait two more weeks for MRI appt, which when it comes back shows, a ruptured MCR ligament.

Again I wait, two weeks for an appt letter in a hospital in a different town even though the consultant does weekly surgeries in the town I'm in it turns out when I finally see him, another week or more after the letter. They guy decides on a brace and crutches, with a follow up every two weeks for eight weeks followed by physio.

The brace he sent the nurse for isn't in stock so another one is brought, totally different and she warned me it wasn't exactly an award winner. And its worse than useless, I mean no matter how tight I fasten it, within two steps it has fallen not only down, but completely below the knee. Worthless pile of nonsense, so I rang the manufacturers as I assumed I was misusing it, but no, and they were blissfully unaware of it ever being anything other than perfect.

Rang the hospital, and they had me back in within two days to be fair, but the woman on the phone was a world apart from the nurses I met upon going back, they basically said that's how it is, keep hiking it up, keep calm and carry on. So I pushed for the brace i was originally supposed to get, and it still wasn't in stock but they would order it in. I pushed because being immobile isn't an option as I work for myself and the original brace would have been fine for that.

They said it would be here by Wednesday of this week and would phone me, bring me in and fit it. No call and its now Saturday, so Ill start chasing them again on Monday. They assured me they would call me soon as it came in and that would be Wednesday, so lets see when I call if its there. I know where my tenner is on that one.

I realise it's not life and death, it's not childbirth, and I injured myself chasing a ball around but the point holds, I run my own business, and if any part of that malfunctioned as badly and repeatedly as almost every part of this NHS chain I am in, I would be eaten alive by my competitors in probably about as much time as passed since I hurt my knee.

This is not to say I want it auctioned off, privatised, nor is it me uncloaking as a godless Tory :) I just found it to be a string of bad getting worse this time.

Oh it's terribly underfunded. What has happened to you sounds like a fairly classic example of things falling through the cracks in an understaffed and over worked department.


The same WHO that spent 200 Million on Travel last year? :) And I read that on Al Jazeera of all places.

I'm sure you Health Ins is fine. Mine is fine too and not that expensive. Raising Taxes by that much in CAL would be crazy. Taxes are crazy in left wing states like that as it is.I'm glad that works for you. I notice that rich people from around the world often come to the US for treatment. Max Factor in LA, CLE Clinic, Mayo in Minny. NYU Langone down the street from me. They all have their VIP centers. Why would anyone need that? I thought everyone is treated the exact same under socialized medicine? Weird.

And how much travel did they get for the money? They were dealing with the Ebola outbreak in West Africa and Zika in South America last year, which would make meant flying people and cargo all over the place. Stuff costs money, and moving stuff costs more money.

And how much tax do you think we pay? The UK takes 34% of GDP in tax. Ireland takes 30%. The USA takes 26% (On average. It varies from state to state obviously)

Healthcare is a fairly rare example of something the government can run more efficiently than the market. It's not like buying a car. Nobody would ever buy a car knowing it would bankrupt them. Nobody who had a choice would ever go to a slightly less reliable cardiologist because he is 20% cheaper. The free market just doesn't with healthcare.

[Charlie Darwin]

Yeah, if I wanted to privatise a health service I'd steadily cut services too. Tories know what they're doing and guess who'll be first in the line to take up public-private partnerships?

[DannyInvincible]

'After Brexit: the UK will need to renegotiate at least 759 treaties': https://www.ft.com/content/f1435a8e-372b-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e


https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod-us.s3.amazonaws.com%2F68fbd79c-452b-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996?source=next&fit=scale-down&width=600

[Brexit] poses a formidable and little-understood challenge for Britain’s prime minister after the June 8 election. While Brexit is often cast as an affair between Brussels and London, in practice Britain’s exit will open more than 750 separate time-pressured mini-negotiations worldwide, according to Financial Times research. And there are no obvious shortcuts: even a basic transition after 2019 requires not just EU-UK approval, but the deal-by-deal authorisation of every third country involved.

“The nearest precedent you can think of is a cessation of a country — you are almost starting from scratch,” says Andrew Hood, a former UK government lawyer now at Dechert. “It will be a very difficult, iterative process.”

[BelfastCrusader]

Sales tax, income tax and National Insurance all go in the one pot. Property tax is paid locally and goes towards fixing potholes, social housing, state schools etc.

The NHS comes out of the big pot, and accounts for 18.8% of that. Currently Income Tax is 0% on all earnings £11,000 and below, 20% on all earnings £11,000 to £43,000, and 40% on all earnings above that. National Insurance varies from 0% to 11% of income depending on a number of factors. On average a UK worker will pay 31% tax on their earnings, which means just under 6% of their income will go on the NHS. This is significantly less than in the US, which is generally attributed to a number of factors. One of the most important of these being that people in the UK will go to the doctor on a cautionary or preventative basis, so many problems are nipped in the bud before they can develop into something more dangerous (and expensive). There is also the fact that the NHS does not try to turn a profit, and the fact that it has a much greater negotiating power than individual US customers, and so can get a better deal from suppliers of drugs and medical equipment.

Another factor is that there is no insurance to administer, as there is in the US, which has a cost. And insurance companies often demand second opinions before agreeing to pay for treatment, which also has a cost.

[DannyInvincible]

The UK has fallen to the bottom of the GDP growth-rate league table of advanced economies and has been the worst performer among the G7 this year, along with Italy: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/02/brexit-scaremongers-proved-right-economy-slump-inflation


This week Britain slumped to the bottom of the GDP growth rate league table (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/31/uk-comes-bottom-of-the-g7-growth-league-as-canada-takes-the-lead) of advanced economies. Along with Italy, Britain is officially the worst performer among the G7 so far this year, held back by high inflation that is putting consumers under pressure. The cause of that high inflation is primarily the knock-on effect of the weaker pound, which dropped by 20% immediately after the Brexit referendum (https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/feb/24/pound-falls-brexit-referendum-ryanair-business-live?page=with:block-56cd8e3fe4b0827712bb707d#block-56cd8e3fe4b0827712bb707d) result last year.

Just because the world didn’t change on 24 June 2016 doesn’t mean that it was never going to change. The time-lag between cause and effect is a cornerstone of economic behaviour. This basic dynamic takes into consideration the notion, observable over decades of analysis, that shocks rarely impact economies – particularly sophisticated ones – overnight. The Brexit time-lag has just ended.

[DannyInvincible]

"Vote Leave Campaign Chief Dominic Cummings Admits Leaving The EU Could ‘Be An Error’": http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-dominic-cummings-vote-leave_uk_595b62bbe4b02734df33fbc0


The brains behind the Brexit vote has admitted it might be possible that leaving the EU “will be an error” and the referendum itself was a “dumb idea”.

Dominic Cummings, the campaign director for the official Vote Leave campaign, claimed “other things should have been tried first” before the referendum was called - suggesting he would have backed further attempts at reform.

[BonnieShels]

Dya ever get the feeling that the more they delve into this now that the discussions are now on that they may balk at the whole thing and go "Soz bbz... can I haz EU back thx!"

[BonnieShels]

I missed this the last day:



Verhofstad also suggested that after the UK exits the EU those with Irish passports in Northern Ireland should be allowed to vote in European elections across the border.

Verhofstad said the number of European seats could be increased from the current 11 to allow for Northern Irish voters to still exercise some influence in the EU as part of any post-Brexit deal.

The Democratic Unionists in turn said it would use its parliamentary muscle to force the government to block any moves allowing for Northern Ireland voters to elect MEPs in the Irish Republic.

DUP MP Sir Jeffrey Donaldson told the Guardian there was “no chance” his party would accept such an arrangement after Brexit.

Donaldson said the 10 DUP MPs at Westminster who currently shore up the minority Conservative government would insist to the prime minister that Verhostad’s proposal be rejected out of hand in Brexit negotiations.

“His idea would be a breach of the Good Friday agreement which keeps all constitutional change within strand one of that agreement, namely only within Northern Ireland.

“This idea would also upset the delicate constitutional balance we have worked out here and would endanger the peace process,” the Lagan Valley MP added.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/12/eu-warns-brexit-talks-could-fail-after-johnsons-go-whistle-remarks

[DannyInvincible]

In what way would Verhofstad's proposal to allow northern EU citizens to vote for representative MEPs contravene the GFA (as claimed by Jeffrey Donaldson)? Permitting northern EU citizens a vote wouldn't have to necessitate constitutional change, would it? If anything, it might somewhat ameliorate nationalist fears and disgruntlement. It's also exceptionally rich to hear a Brexit supporter warning of endangerment to the peace process. Irony is dead.

I doubt parties that operate only south of the border would be too keen on Verhofstad's idea either as Sinn Féin would most likely stand to take all northern seats on offer if there was to be a unionist boycott.

I think it'd be a positive move. If unionists want to be intransigent and opt out of things like that, let them. Their loss. As progressive unionist Sophie Long warned (http://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland?p=1916046&viewfull=1#post1916046), they're only going to get left behind by developments and will look like fools stuck on the outside when it eventually comes to negotiating a new, agreed Ireland and they've marginalised themselves from the re-unification process so much that they won't have any influence over its direction.

Meanwhile, Lisa O'Carroll writes in the Guardian that Dublin is streets ahead of other EU rivals as London firms plan for post-Brexit relocation: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/15/dublin-first-choice-london-banks-brexit-relocation-plans


In boardrooms across London, bank executives are deciding where to move tens of thousands of jobs in the event of a hard Brexit. Rival European financial centres, including Paris, Frankfurt and Luxembourg, are vying for the business – but Dublin is emerging as the most popular destination.

Hundreds of banks, insurers, fund managers and other major City firms had until Friday to tell the Bank of England how they intend to cope in the event of a hard Brexit.

Accountants at EY last week said 59 out of the 222 biggest financial services companies in the UK have made public statements about moving staff from Britain to the EU because of Brexit. Dublin, which is still scarred by Ireland’s financial crisis, is the top destination with 19 firms mentioning a possible move to the Irish capital.

[Gather round]

It's also exceptionally rich to hear a Brexit supporter warning of endangerment to the peace process. Irony is dead

It isn't. 'Threat to Peace Process' is just a cliche/ euphemism for 'Anything in NI politics I disagree with'. Extending the Augnacloy Autobahn or York Street flyover with Tory handouts doesn't threaten anyone; nor does electing another gombeen Shinner who makes Martina Anderson sound like a World stateswoman by comparison. In other words- Jeff's talking cojones, but no more than anyone else ;)


I doubt parties that operate only south of the border would be too keen on Verhofstad's idea either as Sinn Féin would most likely stand to take all northern seats on offer if there was to be a unionist boycott...I think it'd be a positive move

It'd be slightly more positive with more support (ie if the Unionists, the Fianna Failers, the Blueshirts, the Labour weren't likely to blank it). It's an empty stunt.


As progressive unionist Sophie Long

Long has now left the UVF's political wing which I suppose makes her slightly more progressive than before. But let's see some electoral support before we give her full credit...

[BonnieShels]

Can anyone decipher what exactly Leo said wrong here?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0731/894137-vardkar-brexit-border/

Cos what i read is a unionist being against a relatively partitioist viewpoint of our Taoiseach.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Can anyone decipher what exactly Leo said wrong here?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0731/894137-vardkar-brexit-border/

Cos what i read is a unionist being against a relatively partitioist viewpoint of our Taoiseach.

He's a bit more forthright on the issue than may be expected I suppose, but that's about it. His general message of "This is your mess, if you want to deal with a hard border you're handling all the particulars, not us" is just very unwelcome for a DUP that presumably doesn't want more unhappiness from the border areas and would rather believe in a "Let's all make Brexit a success together!" fairy tale.

[BelfastCrusader]

In what way would Verhofstad's proposal to allow northern EU citizens to vote for representative MEPs contravene the GFA (as claimed by Jeffrey Donaldson)? Permitting northern EU citizens a vote wouldn't have to necessitate constitutional change, would it? If anything, it might somewhat ameliorate nationalist fears and disgruntlement. It's also exceptionally rich to hear a Brexit supporter warning of endangerment to the peace process. Irony is dead.

I doubt parties that operate only south of the border would be too keen on Verhofstad's idea either as Sinn Féin would most likely stand to take all northern seats on offer if there was to be a unionist boycott.

I think it'd be a positive move. If unionists want to be intransigent and opt out of things like that, let them. Their loss. As progressive unionist Sophie Long warned (http://foot.ie/threads/178393-Discussion-on-a-United-or-re-partitioned-Ireland?p=1916046&viewfull=1#post1916046), they're only going to get left behind by developments and will look like fools stuck on the outside when it eventually comes to negotiating a new, agreed Ireland and they've marginalised themselves from the re-unification process so much that they won't have any influence over its direction.

How would this work? Into which constituency would NI-resident voters be added? I guess they'd have to be split between the existing four constituencies, but that in itself would be very odd - people living in NI voting in the Dublin or 'South' constituencies.

I suppose they could just use one big constituency for the whole country like most of the other EU members.

[backstothewall]

I'd assume NI would simply carry on electing 3 MEPs in a single constituency as we do now. Why reinvent the wheel?

[BelfastCrusader]

I'd assume NI would simply carry on electing 3 MEPs in a single constituency as we do now. Why reinvent the wheel?

Would that be allowed? Who would administer the election? It would have to be done by postal vote surely?

And the other constituencies would then have to reduce their MEPs by 3.

[KrisLetang]

Bloomberg columnist says Brexit is essentially meaningless.
www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-28/brexit-is-beginning-to-look-like-no-brexit

[nigel-harps1954]

Bloomberg columnist says Brexit is essentially meaningless.
www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-28/brexit-is-beginning-to-look-like-no-brexit (http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-28/brexit-is-beginning-to-look-like-no-brexit)

Nigel says Bloomberg columnist is talking out of his arse.

Brexit is far from meaningless. Not even once did they mention the border in Ireland, which is arguably the one of the biggest things they have to consider as part of Brexit. To reiterate, it's far from meaningless.

[backstothewall]

Would that be allowed? Who would administer the election? It would have to be done by postal vote surely?

And the other constituencies would then have to reduce their MEPs by 3.

It would be allowed as long as the EU agreed to it, and i can see no reason why they wouldnt agree. French citizens living in non-EU Overseas Territories of France currently elect MEPs and they EU are already considering the population of northern Cypriots when allocating seats to Cyprus, so precidents have already been set that make this fairly straightforward and which would mean no other areas would have to loose seats.

If Ireland was considered as a single unit as Cyprus currently is the population used for apportionment would be increased from 4.2M (currently 11 MEPs) to 6.4M. Ireland would then have a population between Denmark (who get 13 for their 5.4M people) and Bulgaria (who get 17 for their 7.7M people). 14 seems about right for 6.4M based on those figures. Even if we only got 13 it would hardly be noticed if it happened alongside a boundary review and election.

It could be done either entirely by postal vote, polling stations could be set up in local halls, council buildings etc (in areas where councils are agreeable to the idea), or there could be some combination of the 2 systems. At a push a transit van could serve as a mobile polling station. The infrastructure is about to be put in place for presidential elections no matter what happens with Brexit so the work will have to be done in any case.

[DannyInvincible]

The reflections of Dutch writer Joris Luyendijk, who has lived in London for the last six years, on English society and Brexit make for interesting reading: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/how-i-learnt-to-loathe-england


Ever since the referendum, friends from across the world have been enquiring whether it is true that the British have gone mad. Without those six years in London, I would have unhesitatingly said “yes.” “A temporary bout of insanity” still seems the preferred explanation in much of Europe and among many British Remainers. But years of immersion in English culture and society have convinced me that actually, the Brexit vote should instead be seen as the logical and overdue outcome of a set of English pathologies.

[DannyInvincible]

'The hard-won kinship between Britain and Ireland is threatened by Brexit idiocy': https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/26/hard-won-kinship-between-britain-and-ireland-brexit-idiocy

Another impressive piece by Fintan O'Toole on Brexit, there.


What happens with the border is a vital national interest. Ireland is desperate to hear what Britain has in mind. Instead, it has been told not to worry its pretty little head about it, but trust in the reassurances of its betters. It is being placed in the position of a 1950s wife, whose husband is betting the house on a horse race while he tells her, with increasingly irritation, to stop worrying because the nag is sure to romp home.

Behind this reckless arrogance, there is an assumption that Ireland is an eccentric little offshoot of Britain that must shut its gob and stop asking awkward questions. It is, in fact, a sovereign country with the full backing of 26 other EU member states – and how strange it is that we have reached a point where this comes as an unpleasant surprise to so many people in London.

[ifk101]

To put Brexit in football terms; you've scored an own-goal, the manager takes you out of the game, you're not happy about it, you want to save face but your teammates ultimately don't care if you throw a tandrum, they care for the best interests of the team and not the want-away player. You become bitter of your teammates; you believe you made them the players they are today, eventhough they were in the club before you, why aren't they grateful? Your increasing flippancy and disregard is the slow realisation you are being kicked from the club and there's no come back. Sure, you said you wanted to leave, but you really didn't think it through. Your next team is undecided, but no doubt somewhere down the divisions, reminiscing of times gone by.

[KrisLetang]

Things could get dicey for you lads insists one writer.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/28/irish-communities-terror-brexit-good-friday-agreement-ireland

[BonnieShels]

The British education system is trundling along nicely.

I for one can't wait to lump it!

2624

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/935599685611515904

[DannyInvincible]

The British education system is trundling along nicely.

I for one can't wait to lump it!

2624

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/935599685611515904

Haughty woman in red hat: "I do think that the Irish are just making trouble because they lost. It's a bit petty, isn't it really? Yeah, the southern Irish have to lump it basically. You can't always have what you want in life."

Irony is dead. What on earth is she on about? What does she even think she's referring to when she says we "lost"? What did we "lose"? :confused:

I was initially worried about having Fine Gael negotiating on our behalf, but the Irish government have the British government by the balls. Is it historically unprecedented? I hope they stand firm.

The other people's offerings in that Channel 4 news clip are mostly comical and reminded me of this:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q566ys0sqVQ

There was a bit of sense spoken at the end of the clip, in fairness, but that woman in the red hat was just offensively ignorant on so many levels.

[DannyInvincible]

I'm in exactly the same place. Any attack on the staff would be totally wrong, but I'd be perfectly happy the support attacks on the infrastructure of a border, whether it was erected by the UK, EU, or ROI. I'd see a campaign of civil disobedience as inevitable and although I'm nowhere near the border to burn anything down I'll be perfectly prepared to go out of my way to cross the border at unapproved crossing etc to **** with their system if it comes to that. It is not acceptable and we will not tolerate it.

Sinn Féin's Chris Hazzard has warned similarly given the level of discontent at the prospect of a hardening of the border: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/more-security-on-irish-border-could-mean-civil-disobedience-sinn-fein-says


If we see a situation where we are going to have border customs posts or any particular type of hardware, I would think that would be something people won’t want.

And I go even further. An awful lot of the focus has been on maybe dissident republican organisations and threats, but it is wider than that – it goes right down to a feeling of civil disobedience.

When you talk to normal people in civic society they are very, very angry and frustrated at even the thought of a customs post going up. So I think you will see widespread distaste for any notion of a hardened border, and I mean that from civic society. That’s the strength of feeling from it.

[DannyInvincible]

As I have said, I dont think much will change [in respect of the Irish border post-Brexit].

'Hard Brexit would hit 142 Irish cross-border agreements': https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/27/hard-brexit-would-hit-142-irish-cross-border-agreements


A confidential study conducted by the UK government and the European commission has listed 142 cross-border activities on the island of Ireland that would be negatively impacted by a hard Brexit.

They include heart surgery in Dublin for children from Northern Ireland as well as cancer treatment in Derry for people from the Republic because patients, clinicians and ambulances are free to move across the border without checks. Also listed as at risk are existing cross-border agreements on mobile phone roaming, which enable commuters, tourists and business travellers to enjoy charges restricted to local rates across the entire island.

Eoin Magennis, senior economist in the Economic Policy Centre at Ulster University, said: “It’s an important list because it shows the depth of cooperation that people aren’t aware of that has developed since 1999-2000 and it’s going to be hard to unpick all of that.”

[Blue Lou]

Can you guys please explain to me what it is that Iain Duncan Smith said that is wrong ?

https://www.channel4.com/news/iain-duncan-smith-everybody-who-has-a-sensible-brain-on-their-heads-wants-a-free-trade-arrangement - 5:35 in

I see a lot of people criticise him for being wrong, but not stating how he is wrong.

[DannyInvincible]

Can you guys please explain to me what it is that Iain Duncan Smith said that is wrong ?

https://www.channel4.com/news/iain-duncan-smith-everybody-who-has-a-sensible-brain-on-their-heads-wants-a-free-trade-arrangement - 5:35 in

I see a lot of people criticise him for being wrong, but not stating how he is wrong.

He claimed there's a "presidential election coming up" (which is actually going to take place a full year from now in November of 2018), as if that has any bearing on Fine Gael's position on Brexit and the border. There's no connection, as I assume Michael D. Higgins will just stand again for that election and will win relatively easily, but IDS attempts to argue that the firm line Fine Gael are taking on the Irish border is really just posturing in an attempt to take votes from Sinn Féin and the pro-unity demographic in the presidential election. Like the pro-Brexit former Tory MP Peter Lilley tried to do on BBC NI last Thursday night (https://foot.ie/threads/227045-General-Election-2017?p=1945680&viewfull=1#post1945680), IDS is attempting to undermine and downplay the seriousness of the national, economic, political and social concerns in Ireland over the border issue and is disingenuously trying to dismiss them as mere electioneering for votes or "showboating", as he puts it.

Fine Gael have already stated they'd back Higgins (who has never been a member of Fine Gael) if he was to nominate himself for the presidency, so they aren't even going to put a candidate forward. And as if they'd base a high-risk play as serious as what they're doing now - threatening to use Ireland's veto on an EU-UK Brexit deal, in other words - on the winning of a few extra votes in a contest for a largely ceremonial role anyway...

It's utterly clueless and nonsensical conspiracy theory stuff from IDS. Comical, delusional waffle. although I suspect he's fully aware of the bull**** nature of what he's spouting. That he could say it so smugly and patronisingly with a straight face to the anchor who tried to pull him up on it immediately after he first mentioned just "an election", as if to imply that she was the illiterate one on Irish affairs due to what she said, demonstrates just the type of character the man is. (KrisLetang; there's an example of real mansplaining for you. ;) )

He's speaking to the ignorance of his audience in England - misinformed Tories and Brexiteer - and he's quite clearly projecting (or introjecting even) as a defence mechanism for his bull**** when he boasts that "politicians [such as himself] can see through [stuff like the alleged showboating of the Irish government] straight away". The reality is that informed politicians would see through his bull**** right away. Terribly disingenuous man.

[backstothewall]

Can you guys please explain to me what it is that Iain Duncan Smith said that is wrong ?

https://www.channel4.com/news/iain-duncan-smith-everybody-who-has-a-sensible-brain-on-their-heads-wants-a-free-trade-arrangement - 5:35 in

I see a lot of people criticise him for being wrong, but not stating how he is wrong.

I think It's worth adding to what Danny said above that the Irish Presidency was an office created to assume the duties held by the British monarchy before independence, and that remains the case today.

The Irish President has no political role, and no role at all in negotiating Brexit. A potential presidential election in 2018 has as much impact on our negotiating position as the marriage of Prince Harry has on Britain's.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Ignorant people see "Presidential election" and think it's a huge deal too, because they just associate the term with having serious executive power, ala the US. A lot of British people, especially the kind IDS panders too, probably haven't a clue how the Irish political system works.

[BonnieShels]

We weren't much better:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1129/923781-can-you-draw-the-border-with-northern-ireland/

---

In defence of IDS. I think he just got muddled. Most of everything else has been way worse. It's rather stunning the anti-Irish schtick that's emanating from the Mainland now!

Even Junior was at it today:



DUP MP Ian Paisley says Ireland should be 'punished' if it tries to use Brexit to split UK

Lisa O'Carroll Lisa O'Carroll
Ian Paisley, the Democratic Unionist Party MP, has launched a scathing attack on the Irish government branding its call for Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union and single market as “disgraceful”.

He said they were happy to take £7bn bailout during the financial crisis in 2010 from Britain and need to act “as good neighbours and as friends” instead of “undermining” relations.

Speaking at the Northern Ireland affairs select committee in Westminster on Wednesday, he said if Ireland continued to propose divergence between the region and the rest of the United Kingdom, they should be “punished” with a “long, tenuous and hard” negotiation on a fisheries deal post Brexit. He said:


Frankly I think the pussy footing needs to stop

I think our neighbour has acted disgracefully. They are supposed to be our partner. As a nation our majesty’s government since 2016 has given them billions of money interest free to bail them out of economic ruin and bankruptcy.

Of course that money has been paid back but paid back at a very generous rate

The Republic of Ireland relies for a major part of its trade with UK

Its fisheries water becomes our fisheries water in 2019 and as early as September 2019 they will need to make a fisheries deal, not with the EU, but with us and frankly if they continue to exacerbate our will as citizens of the UK, I think we should make that fisheries deal, long tenuous and hard for them.

The DUP is implacably opposed to anything that will separate them from the rest of the UK.

Last week the party, which holds the balance of power at Westminster, said it will use its parliamentary muscle to prevent any special post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland that could “decouple” the region from the rest of the UK.

Paisley told the committee people were “exasperated” with the Dublin government. Addressing the ministers giving evidence to the committee, he said:


I think that message needs to be spelt out that they need to start acting in a mature way and dealing with us as good neighbours and as friends instead of trying to frustrate the will of the people of the UK by saying they want a united Ireland, by saying they want this part of the sovereign territory, that this part of her majesty’s kingdom, to be out with the rest of the agreement.

If her majesty’s government isn’t for diplomatic reasons prepared to say it publicly, I hope you are starting to shake their cage internally and privately in these negotiations. A lot of people are really exasperated with the amateurishness of the Irish government.

[KrisLetang]

Oh not the fisheries deal post Brexit. Anything but that. Will someone please think of the fish.

[The Fly]

We weren't much better:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1129/923781-can-you-draw-the-border-with-northern-ireland/

---

In defence of IDS. I think he just got muddled. Most of everything else has been way worse. It's rather stunning the anti-Irish schtick that's emanating from the Mainland now!

Even Junior was at it today:

Even?

[DannyInvincible]

In defence of IDS. I think he just got muddled.

I dunno. I've heard two Tories try peddle this nonsensical "election showboating" conspiracy theory within the past few days in an effort to play down how serious the concerns in Ireland are. I suspect it's part of a co-ordinated propaganda offensive, or it at least seems like a few Brexiteer Tories have been briefed to spin things this way.

Paisley Junior is an irrelevant nincompoop. The bail-out wasn't "interest-free". It was a loan to be paid back; not a charitable donation with no strings attached. What's he on about?

If he genuinely sees the rest of the country as his partner, the best way to demonstrate the strength of that partnership would be to stay in the single market and customs union together, no?

Still, amusing to see Paisley and his ilk against the ropes for once instead of arrogantly pushing their weight around. You can tell he's rattled by the indignant and threatening rhetoric. He should probably get used to the feeling. :)

[Gather round]

IDS and IPJ know what they're doing- pandering to the ignorance of English journalists let alone channel 4 viewers or even the wider public

Anyone know if Michael D is going to the cricket at Malahide? I am practising the notional anthem in his honor.

[Gather round]

Compulsory for English hacks as above...

https://i.imgur.com/Uq4eucV.png

[DannyInvincible]

IDS and IPJ know what they're doing- pandering to the ignorance of English journalists let alone channel 4 viewers or even the wider public

Even David Trimble has been at it: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5032734/good-friday-agreement-leo-varadkar-brexit-sinn-fein/


"The reason the issue of the border has been brought up in the way it has is not because of any practical reasons but because of the internal politics of the Irish Republic. The Taoiseach has been in desperate negotiations with other party leaders in order to prevent a general election being triggered. He is snarling at London, trying to make a big issue about the border, because he is worried Sinn Fein might benefit if he does not. What Leo Varadkar is doing is trying to appeal to Sinn Fein voters.

He hasn’t learned the lesson that some Irish nationals have painfully learned in Northern Ireland: that you can’t out Sinn Fein Sinn Fein. All he is doing is validating its position. For its own reasons, the EU is egging him on. It just shows you how desperate the EU and Irish nationalists are that they’re clutching at these straws.

It is not true that Brexit in any way threatens the peace process. Leaving the EU does not affect the agreement because the EU had nothing to do with it."

Quite a bit of disingenuous "reporting" in that, as well as an outright lie. A common Irish-British EU dimension is expressly mentioned in the Good Friday Agreement and it is upon that common dimension that much of what was agreed in 1998 is based. Brexit itself, never mind just the prospect of a hard border, explicitly contravenes the Agreement. It's startling that Trimble is apparently "unaware" of this seeing as he part-negotiated the thing.

I thought this comment (https://disqus.com/home/discussion/sluggerotoole/exclusive_poll_unionist_supporters_content_with_ea st_west_post_brexit_border_controls/#comment-3635498904) by a poster on Slugger O'Toole, 'SeaanUiNeill', in response to a unionist poster summarised very well the Irish government's rationale for its present position:


"The Irish Government has every right to insist on the resolution of what are clearly on the part of the UK unthoughtout issues over Northern Ireland. It is a guarantor of the Belfast Agreement which, if you have forgotten, is an international treaty which describes our sovereignty as the choice of the local people. The Agreement was
signed off with the understanding that both the UK and Ireland would continue to be members of the EU and this is being altered. The clauses relating to the EU will be inoperative when the UK exits the EU and will need to be rewritten, perhaps again put to a referendum, as the document prepared to brief MEPs clearly states. In this situation, if the Belfast Agreement actually means anything, NI is not the sole responsibility of the UK, but of both signatories to the Agreement. The Dublin Administration would be failing in its duty in not attempting to retain those EU benefits for a NI which may shortly be reunified in accordsnce to the will of a majority disgusted by the little Englander fantasies of a Londoncentrc UK.

Besides all that, the British government have already promised that there will be no hard border in Ireland, so the Irish government are simply ensuring that the British government act in accordance with that declaration.

Jim Allister has been given a fair bit of air-time by Stephen Nolan (on radio (https://audioboom.com/posts/6523270-sinn-fein-in-hard-border-civil-disobedience-warning-tuv-mla-jimallister-and-commentator-jude42-react) and TV (https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09gy739/nolan-live-series-10-episode-8)) over the past few days (presumably for "balance" or something, seeing as he's one of the few unionists whose unashamed to admit he would be more than content with a hard border). Anyway, he was condemning Chris Hazzard's mention of possible civil disobedience at any hard border as an advocacy of "lawlessness" and "criminality" (and even misrepresented it as a threat of violence and rioting) before it transpired that Allister himself, the hypocrite, had actually supported the civil disobedience by unionists angry at the Anglo-Irish Agreement in the 1980s.

He was asked by Nolan why their "lawlessness" in the 1980s had been justified, in his view, but potential civil disobedience at the border wouldn't be. After waffling and deflecting for a bit, he claimed that unionists had had a right to do it because they'd been prepared to face the consequences of their actions. Unfortunately, Nolan, who's excitable and easily distracted by trivialities, hadn't the wit to go for the jugular and missed putting it to him that the logical conclusion of his position would be that people who wished to engage in civil disobedience at any future hard border would have a right to do that so long as they too were prepared pay whatever price came with it.

Allister also kept making the point that the idea of having economically distinct regions within states was an impossibility (without going into any detail as to why that necessarily had to be so), but isn't Hong Kong an example of such a region? I'm sure there must be other examples around the globe. Even if there are no further examples, it doesn't mean such arrangements are an impossibility if the will is there to create them.

Watching the BBC's 'Question Time (https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09h2hjq/question-time-30112017)' and 'This Week (https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09h3ymc/this-week-30112017)' earlier, you'd almost think Ireland never even existed. The border matter wasn't even discussed on 'Question Time' and, on 'This Week', Michael Portillo arrogantly laughed off Irish concerns as "artificial" before Labour's Liz Kendall, who, in fairness, wanted to give the issue a proper hearing, was shut down by presenter Andrew Neal who diverted the discussion elsewhere despite Kendall's request for him to return to the matter later in the programme. Neal, a Tory, refused to grant her her wish.

Portillo had said that the Irish concerns were "artificial" because, he claimed, it was the EU who were actually going to be erecting any border infrastructure rather than Britain, which, according to him, meant it "wasn't Britain's problem". It may well be the case that the EU will want to protect its border if the north leaves the single market and customs union, but that doesn't mean this whole mess is not an issue of Britain's making and it's certainly not something of which Britain can just wash their hands and blithely dismiss like Portillo did.

It is also important to remember that it is the British government who have opted to leave the single market and customs union - the public didn't necessarily vote for this in the referendum - so it doesn't have to be this way, as you can participate in both of those from outside the EU, as some countries do. The British government have obligations arising from the GFA and framing the matter as Portillo did is entirely disingenuous and irresponsible. In fact, it was exactly the same line as was being pushed by hard-line bigot Jim Allister on the previous night's 'Nolan Live'.


Compulsory for English hacks as above...

https://i.imgur.com/Uq4eucV.png

Here's one you could add for double points: "26. Ireland was partitioned by which state upon the threat of violence from which Irish democratic minority?"

Parity of esteem and all that. :p

[DannyInvincible]

I was just reading this BBC article on the complexity of the border issue and, in order to demonstrate the invisible and meandering nature of the border, it features a video of a car driving unimpeded along a road from Clones to County Cavan that crosses the border four times within the space of six miles: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42188485

The road is known as the A3 in the north and the N54 in the south. I'd been vaguely aware of its existence before as its quite unusual, but I decided to look at it a bit closer on a map after reading about it in the article. Here it is:

http://i67.tinypic.com/1zr2fit.png

The part of County Monaghan through which the N54 runs after crossing the border is almost like an enclave. In fact, the strip of land where that area of Monaghan that is surrounded on all sides by County Fermanagh connects with the rest of Monaghan is about 80 metres wide. The "enclave" also appears to be cut off from the bulk of Monaghan by the River Finn (not the same one that runs through Ballybofey).

In light of this, I was wondering, how would, say, the Garda access the "enclave" if a crime was reported there? Do they have some special arrangement with the PSNI whereby they (the Garda) can access via the A3? Presumably they don't cross the river by boat and wade through fields in wellies to get to their destination, ha.

[ifk101]

Redraw the border there, I think. The lands left and right are breaking up the passage of the N54 and therefore should be returned to the Republik. The A3 ends at the border with Monaghan. The classification of A3 to the broke-up passage parts seems like an afterthought, as A3 designates a primary road in the North while the N54 is a secondary road.

[osarusan]

Redraw the border there, I think.
You can hardly imagine it's as simple as that, though, surely?

[ifk101]

Job for a boundary commission, no?

Two checkpoints on a minor back road isn't practical, imo.

[osarusan]

I'd say that even if the Irish and NI and UK governments were in favour of such a process, it would be a massive undertaking that would take much longer than Brexit.

[ifk101]

How about Ireland/ the EU "purchasing" the strip of land used by the A3 route? Or implementing a mechanism that stops access to the A3 from the North?

Who knows how long the Brexit process will take, btw? A lot more complicated issues than this to address.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I'd love to see the DUP's reaction to Dublin buying back a bit of the north.

Well, they have 16 months or nothing. Looks increasingly likely there will be no deal and that the UK will refuse to implement any border controls on their side. Make us and the EU the bad guys, if we care to implement border controls ourselves.

That's if May is still PM when that happens, or if Tories are still in power. We should perhaps wonder what kind of options a Corbyn led government would present in contrast.

Coleman's Island is a weird little case. Does anyone know how Monaghan's border ended up like that? From what I've read it's a pre-1921 state of affairs.

[DannyInvincible]

Coleman's Island is a weird little case. Does anyone know how Monaghan's border ended up like that? From what I've read it's a pre-1921 state of affairs.

It also appears to be known as the Drummully Polyp, the Drummully Salient and, locally, as "the Connons" or "Coleman's Island" (as you've referred to it). There's an article on it here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/heritage/borderline-nationality-disorder-1.1530942

Frank McNally writes:


"To find out how this oddity first arose, you might have to go back to the Middle Ages. The McMahon clan, whose family business later became Monaghan, could probably explain. Or failing that, the Maguires, whose farming and feuding interests were likewise rebranded as modern-day Fermanagh. The 1921 division inherited those lines. And this may be when the term polyp gained currency as a description for Drummully. The word has a detached, scientific sound about it; although it was hardly designed to reassure the populations on either side."


I dunno. I've heard two Tories try peddle this nonsensical "election showboating" conspiracy theory within the past few days in an effort to play down how serious the concerns in Ireland are. I suspect it's part of a co-ordinated propaganda offensive, or it at least seems like a few Brexiteer Tories have been briefed to spin things this way.

Just to add to what I said on IDS above, the C4 News presenter had corrected him that the potential general election was off, meaning his point no longer stood, but he acknowledged this, claimed that that wasn't what he had been referring to and claimed he'd actually been referring to the "presidential election coming up".