Brexit - The End of the United Kingdom? [Archive] - Page 8

D24Saint

15/09/2019, 6:05 PM

samhaydenjr

24/09/2019, 10:02 PM

It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time, and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though.

A narrow majority as Brexit has proven is a receipt for chaos, best to wait.

Sure, we probably shouldn't have a referendum in the immediate aftermath, but with these numbers it's surely time to start thinking about what a United Ireland would mean and how it could be peacefully achieved.

Gather round

26/09/2019, 12:53 PM

At what point, or what survey source, does can the secretary be compelled to enact the GFA agreed referendum though ?

As we're seeing now it's hard to compel the Brit PM to do anything- our system entrenches his/ her almost unlimited power behind the nonsense of asking the Queen's permission...

The Euro Election in May this year had only 36% in NI voting first preference for explicitly United Ireland parties. There's clearly a difficulty moving from a system where people vote for 3 distinct blocs (all now on 20%+) to a referendum with only 2 choices

It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time

It would be an argument, but not a compelling one in itself. A narrow defeat- followed by a further fall in Unionist numbers in the next election- would be strong justification for another referendum fairly soon

and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though

A fairly predictable devlopment over the next 5-10 years is that Brexit won't be finally sorted

it's surely time to start thinking about what a United Ireland would mean and how it could be peacefully achieved

You (plural) have been thinking about it since 1925 ;)

There is a wide range of thinking, from the most positive (economists like David McWilliams) to the mainly negative (jounalists like Fintan O'Toole). Then there's the debate about whether the South should simply absorb NI, or alternatively have an entirely new structure. But put simply, if it's anything like the first option you are increasing the population of the State by 40%, many of the newcomers likely to be less than keen. All at a time of economic disruption etc etc

The Fly

29/09/2019, 8:00 PM

Didn't gain much purchase in the news over here (England) during the week, with the ceaseless howling from all other political quarters.

At what point, or what survey source, does can the secretary be compelled to enact the GFA agreed referendum though ?

The Northern Ireland Act 1998 simply states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

It is not clear exactly what would satisfy this requirement. Typical suggestions include i) a consistent majority in opinion polls; ii) a Catholic majority in a census, iii) a nationalist majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly, or iv) a vote by a majority in the Assembly. These could all be considered evidence of majority support for a united Ireland.

Personally speaking, I wouldn't be surprised if a border poll is called in 2023 when the results of the next census are published.

It'd be a mistake to do so now, if unification is the goal. A narrow defeat would be used as grounds not to hold another referrendum for a very long time, and the demographic breakdown of that poll says there's no harm in waiting. Hard to say how much of that vote would evaporate if Brexit were resolved, though.

That's highly unlikely. A narrow defeat would just increase the push to hold another in seven years; the minimum interval stipulated in the Agreement.

Sure, we probably shouldn't have a referendum in the immediate aftermath, but with these numbers it's surely time to start thinking about what a United Ireland would mean and how it could be peacefully achieved.

Indeed. Even South Korea has a Ministry of Unification!

Gather round

01/10/2019, 3:59 PM

Fly's 4 options are all plausible but each poses problems.

Opinion poll results will reflect the bias of the pollster's client so are likely to be volatile.

Declared faith isn't directly matched to voting. And recent evidence (EG Abortion Referendum) suggests people are giving up faith in large number. If you're simply using Catholic as shorthand for Nationalist, why not count the Nat vote in an election or 2. They're still pretty frequent despite loss of Stormont...

CraftyToePoke

01/10/2019, 5:32 PM

So would it be within the Assembly, those returned to it in a GE or a vote taken within it at some stage, which would set this in motion ?

Gather round

02/10/2019, 8:11 AM

There will prob be a British General Election before Xmas this year. A clear rise for Nationalism and/or drop for Unionism and a 2 option border referendum becomes more likely.

Stormont can't deliver anything while shut, obviously. But if/ when it reopens, a STV election will likely benefit Alliance more than Unionism or Nationalism...

samhaydenjr

03/10/2019, 1:47 AM

The Northern Ireland Act 1998 simply states that �if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland�, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.

I think that's actually a problematic phrase - for a referendum to be considered "likely" to pass, I would think there would have to be consistent indicators that the result would be a certain amount above the 50%+1 normally required for a democratic referendum to pass. Does this mean that if there's only a "reasonable possibility" of a referendum passing (polls showing tight preferences, an Assembly split between Unionists on one side and Nationalists and the Alliance on the other), the Secretary of State could decide not to hold a Referendum at all?

Gather round

03/10/2019, 10:29 AM

the 50%+1 normally required for a democratic referendum to pass

Problematic phrase alert ;)

Referenda often require a threshold higher than 50%+1, for good reasons. To ensure that the result will be widely accepted, hasn't been affected by force majeure/ freak weather etc., or can't immediately be contradicted by a poll or even an election.

If we assume that the Unionist vote remains in at least gradual decline, what's the problem in waiting until pro-UI is clearly greater than say 55%?

Does this mean that if there's only a "reasonable possibility" of a referendum passing (polls showing tight preferences, an Assembly split between Unionists on one side and Nationalists and the Alliance on the other), the Secretary of State could decide not to hold a Referendum at all?

Yes, and such a decision would be recognised as rational, including by parties in the South. Whatever Sinn Fein gurn in response.

That's even before you consider the possibility that a future Brit viceroy/ stooge might be even dimmer/ lazier/ more unwell? than the hapless Karen Bradley...

NeverFeltBetter

03/10/2019, 3:24 PM

You can have 50% +1, 55%, 65%, 90%, but there will always be an element of North Ireland's population who will not accept unification under any circumstances. Among the many difficult conversations to have about unification is what to do about those people if a vote is won.

Gather round

04/10/2019, 4:22 PM

If that minority is 49% of the population of NI you delay unity. If it's 4.9% you can probably assume grudging acceptance.

The Fly

06/10/2019, 9:24 PM

Fly's 4 options are all plausible but each poses problems.

Opinion poll results will reflect the bias of the pollster's client so are likely to be volatile.

I think the point here is more about consistent majorities in polls and I assume this involves the results from different polling companies.

Declared faith isn't directly matched to voting. And recent evidence (EG Abortion Referendum) suggests people are giving up faith in large number. The abortion referendum almost certainly indicates that. If you're simply using Catholic as shorthand for Nationalist, why not count the Nat vote in an election or 2. They're still pretty frequent despite loss of Stormont...

I'm just using it because Catholic (and Protestant) are still the most useful umbrella terms for each respective cultural/tribal affiliation.

Problematic phrase alert ;)

Referenda often require a threshold higher than 50%+1, for good reasons. To ensure that the result will be widely accepted, hasn't been affected by force majeure/ freak weather etc., or can't immediately be contradicted by a poll or even an election.

If we assume that the Unionist vote remains in at least gradual decline, what's the problem in waiting until pro-UI is clearly greater than say 55%?

Because that involves another problematic phrase; a 'Unionist veto'.

Gather round

08/10/2019, 1:10 PM

I think the point here is more about consistent majorities in polls and I assume this involves the results from different polling companies

Two or three separate but simultaneous polls might give quite different levels of majority, depending on how the question is put. Such results wouldn't be consistent.

I'm just using it because Catholic (and Protestant) are still the most useful umbrella terms for each respective cultural/tribal affiliation

Disagree. Nationalist and Unionist have always been better; even they are less comprehensive than they were when more than 20% vote Alliance etc.; and as I mentioned above it's obvious that large sections of the population- young and old- are simply uninterested in religion, let alone following it tribally...

Because that involves another problematic phrase; a 'Unionist veto'

It doesn't really. There will always be a disaffected minority of (ex) Unionists, as I suggested. If it falls below a critical mass it can be ignored/ sidelined. If it's close to 50%-1 you need to work with it, not just repeat ancient slogans.

The Fly

08/10/2019, 9:18 PM

Two or three separate but simultaneous polls might give quite different levels of majority, depending on how the question is put. Such results wouldn't be consistent.

Consistency comes with time; from separate polling conducted over months, or up to a year or more. I doubt a referendum will be called from the kind of snapshot in time that you've described there.

Disagree. Nationalist and Unionist have always been better; even they are less comprehensive than they were when more than 20% vote Alliance etc.; and as I mentioned above it's obvious that large sections of the population- young and old- are simply uninterested in religion, let alone following it tribally...

I'm referring to their overarching use as cultural markers, as opposed to the specific religious aspect. We could be splitting hairs at this point, so if you want to go with Nationalist and Unionist then fair enough.

It doesn't really. There will always be a disaffected minority of (ex) Unionists, as I suggested. If it falls below a critical mass it can be ignored/ sidelined. If it's close to 50%-1 you need to work with it, not just repeat ancient slogans.

It does in effect, regardless of the supposed merits of a higher threshold.

Gather round

09/10/2019, 10:08 AM

Morning Fly, fair points. Just briefly,

1 Your 'consistency comes with time' and my 'let's wait until every poll shows at least 55%' aren't too far apart? ;)

2 Apart from the Nat and Uni designations, I try to avoid discussing 'cultural markers'. My culture is basically what it was when I was a teenager- 70s dad rock, football/ cricket and the occasional high-falutin' doc on BBC 4. Nothing to do with languages barely anyone I know can speak, or noxious fumes from a New Lodge bonfire...

3 Unionists and Nationalists will continue to assume they have a veto as long as a) there are enough of both groups to get an audience and b) that audience is hidebound by your #2

The Fly

09/10/2019, 7:58 PM

Morning Fly, fair points. Just briefly,

1 Your 'consistency comes with time' and my 'let's wait until every poll shows at least 55%' aren't too far apart? ;)

How many miles are we talking about here?

Seriously though, I get the logic of what you're advocating and it's perhaps sensible in a more normal society. But applied to NI, where two national identities and constitutional positions are in conflict and competition, it provides one side with an effective veto.

2 Apart from the Nat and Uni designations, I try to avoid discussing 'cultural markers'. My culture is basically what it was when I was a teenager- 70s dad rock, football/ cricket and the occasional high-falutin' doc on BBC 4.

I thought 'dad rock' began in the 80s?

Nothing to do with languages barely anyone I know can speak, or noxious fumes from a New Lodge bonfire...

It's not on to equate Irish with an accent and a conflagration. :rolleyes:

3 Unionists and Nationalists will continue to assume they have a veto as long as a) there are enough of both groups to get an audience and b) that audience is hidebound by your #2

In other words, why can't everyone just be embrace abstraction and Northern Irishness. ;)

osarusan

17/10/2019, 3:52 PM

Well well well, what are the odds of the deal getting through, and if not who will be the ones to scupper it?

NeverFeltBetter

17/10/2019, 5:05 PM

Doesn't seem like Labour are making positive noises, and with the DUP also deadset against it (seemingly)...

If BoJo is actually serious about this deal - not at all a sure thing - he presumably has a plan to buy the DUP off, or is hoping to get Corbyn to decide enough is enough on the Brexit issue. I guess we'll see. Not hopeful. Still think the most likely outcome is rejection by Parliament, an extension to hold an election, a Tory/Brexit Party majority and then a no deal exit.

The Fly

09/09/2020, 3:41 PM

Rule, Britannia!
Britannia, waives the rules!

CraftyToePoke

10/09/2020, 12:51 AM

Still think the most likely outcome is rejection by Parliament, an extension to hold an election, a Tory/Brexit Party majority and then a no deal exit.

Two from three so far there Mr crystal ball.

tetsujin1979

27/10/2020, 10:46 AM

Been watching some old episodes of Top Gear on Netflix recently. Series 20 ended with a parade of vehicles manufactured in the UK on the Mall.

vmcmqTAu6b8

What struck me was the number of factories they visitors that have shut, or reduced productivity due to Brexit

The scenes where they visit the factories are not in that clip, so I did some research on each of the ones mentioned

Honda announced they will close the plant in Swindon in 2021: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47287386

Toyota in Derby to "pause" production in Derbyshire after Brexit:: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-derbyshire-49526799

Nissan cancelled the manufacture of the X-Trail in Sunderland, and the plant itself might not survive Brexit: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/03/business/nissan-brexit-sunderland/index.html

Ineos to acquire French factory, instead of building Land Rover in Wales: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53317740

And Nissan and Toyota may demand compensation from the government if no-deal goes through: https://www.driving.co.uk/news/business/nissan-toyota-demand-tariff-compensation-event-no-deal-brexit/

NeverFeltBetter

27/10/2020, 11:10 AM

Mercedes F1 have made noises a few times about moving from their UK base because of a no-deal Brexit too. I suppose that's a different kind of problem, but they employ over a thousand people in their HQ and are generally treated as a British brand because of Lewis Hamilton.

The Fly

06/11/2020, 4:43 PM

Shots fired...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54827100

Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said the UK government intends to refuse another independence referendum "for a generation".

In a BBC interview, Mr Jack suggested a generation could be "25 or 40 years".

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon accused him of a 'rage against democracy' that would not prevail in blocking Indyref2. Meanwhile, former Tory minister Lord Dunlop has said Boris Johnson urgently needs a clear strategy to counter rising support for independence.

Ten opinion polls since June have suggested a majority now favour Scottish independence, with 54% on average backing yes.

The UK government has consistently opposed a new vote, and Mr Jack has sought to harden this position.

dahamsta

07/11/2020, 11:37 AM

Can Scotland sue them?

NeverFeltBetter

07/11/2020, 2:19 PM

I don't think so? Nothing can legally happen without Westminster authorisation. Of course there are other routes...

dahamsta

08/11/2020, 9:04 PM

8 weeks to go.

peadar1987

09/11/2020, 8:58 PM

Shots fired...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-54827100

That narrative really grinds my gears. Nobody on the Yes side promised it was a once in a generation referendum, they said it was a once in a generation opportunity. As in Westminster wouldn't let us have another referendum for decades if we didn't seize the chance in 2014. And they're being proven right.

dahamsta

10/11/2020, 11:11 AM

Sure all the SNP needs to do is get Bozo to say that he'll never back down on it, they'll have a referendum within 1-2 weeks.

The Fly

23/01/2021, 8:48 PM

1353043741813202944

The Fly

23/01/2021, 8:52 PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Esb6QkzW8AA_P3Y?format=jpg&name=1096x1096https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Esb6QkzW8AA_P3Y?format=jpg&name=1096x1096https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Esb6QkzW8AA_P3Y?format=jpg&name=1096x10961353044013776035840

tetsujin1979

23/01/2021, 10:50 PM

for no reason
1105577845642878976

John83

24/01/2021, 1:20 PM

The fly's tweet is showing up as blank for me; ad blocking software or some such. Some digging yielded:

https://www.reddit.com/r/tories/comments/l3njvb/new_poll_the_united_kingdom_will_break_up_if_the/
Which also links to the tweet.
https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1353043741813202944?s=20 (which I presume is the tweet in question)
and finally that tweet just links to this article:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/union-in-crisis-as-poll-reveals-voters-want-referendum-on-scottish-independence-and-united-ireland-wwzpdlg7b?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1611425741