Euro 2016

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Can't see the fuss about Allen myself, he's been poor enough so far.

Adrien Silva and Joao Mario looking good. Nani has been quiet. Ronaldo too, but should have had a stonewall penalty after Collins was climbing all over him.

Robson-Kanu has looked sharp for Wales.

[BonnieShels]

In this game alone or over the tournament? Come on.

Cagey affair without the class of the last cagey match we had the pleasure of.

The difference that Ramsey would make in this game.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

I'm mostly on about this game. Mostly.

[BonnieShels]

Find enough. He actually had a nice 5 minute spell at the start of the second half.

Great header from Ronaldo. Wayels need a miracle after the collective brainfart for the second.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

Would've kept Ledley on. Allen has given the ball away a lot tonight and committed one or two needless fouls. Not composed enough on the night.

Definitely missing Rambo.

[OwlsFan]

Church certainly wasn't the answer to their prayers.

[DeLorean]

I know he's a stroppy, petulant egomaniac but I'd like to see Ronaldo (and Portugal) win it out. For all his faults I couldn't begrudge somebody that driven and brilliant. He's a character anyway, they can't all be alter boys like Messi (on the pitch I mean, obviously!).

I think they would have a better chance of beating France but either way they'll be the underdogs. An extra day to recover and prepare could serve them well though, Thursday to Sunday is a pretty quick turnaround. There's every chance that tonight's game will be more gruelling than last night's also, as Portugal were able to close the game out comfortably enough for most of the second half.

Wales kept going to be fair to them, they never stopped trying to make things happen but Portugal were rock solid, even without Pepe. I was glad when Hennessey saved the effort after Bale gave the ball away just outside his own box, it would have been a very unfortunate way for his (and their) tournament to end. I'm looking forward to our matches against them in the qualifiers, in some ways they're a bit of a yardstick for us now.

Really looking forward to the game tonight.

[Stuttgart88]

I thought Allen was really classy against Russia and very good against Belgium. When have we ever played teams like that and ended up 6 goals for, one against?

Wes was dreadful against France when he came on, but we know he's a good player.

Allen is no Modric or Pirlo, but he's better than a lot of so called star players playing for more fancied countries.

[DeLorean]

He was terrible last night but had a great tournament. I don't think his early booking helped, but that was his own fault I guess. If I was a Liverpool fan I would prefer if he started over Henderson, but I'd be hoping to sign better players than both.

I doubt we've ever put results like that back-to-back, or even individually, certainly not with that amount of goals.

[Stuttgart88]

I know he's a stroppy, petulant egomaniac but I'd like to see Ronaldo (and Portugal) win it out. For all his faults I couldn't begrudge somebody that driven and brilliant. He's a character anyway, they can't all be alter boys like Messi (on the pitch I mean, obviously!).

I think they would have a better chance of beating France but either way they'll be the underdogs. An extra day to recover and prepare could serve them well though, Thursday to Sunday is a pretty quick turnaround. There's every chance that tonight's game will be more gruelling than last night's also, as Portugal were able to close the game out comfortably enough for most of the second half.

Wales kept going to be fair to them, they never stopped trying to make things happen but Portugal were rock solid, even without Pepe. I was glad when Hennessey saved the effort after Bale gave the ball away just outside his own box, it would have been a very unfortunate way for his (and their) tournament to end. I'm looking forward to our matches against them in the qualifiers, in some ways they're a bit of a yardstick for us now.

Really looking forward to the game tonight.I quite like Ronaldo. He is vain, cocky and petulant but I kind of think that if you are supremely gifted, with model good looks (actually I think he looks a bit odd - especially his plucked eyebrows) and a body we'd all kill for, I think it's good that he's brash about it. His behaviour wouldn't suit an Irishman but he's Latin and I think that makes a difference.

That jump was unreal last night. They blamed the defending but he had his marker tied in knots. I suppose the criticism is that it was the wrong guy marking him but Ronaldo's movement to evade his marker is why I prefer zonal to man marking. Clever quick movement will always mean the forward has the advantage. Zonal doesn't mean the ball can't be attacked if it's coming near you. As we often say here, every goal is avoidable in hindsight. That wasn't just any (near) free header from a corner though. His marker was still touch-tight to him, it was the brilliant leap that was the factor.

I'd be happy for Ronaldo to win this.

[Stuttgart88]

There's a great photo of the goal embedded in this link:

Super leap from Ronaldo, but it doesn't look as if Chester is doing that much wrong. Look at how high up he got himself.

https://twitter.com/SecondCaptains/status/751030535774953472

Meanwhile, Collins is rooted to the ground pulling his opponent's jersey.

[TheOneWhoKnocks]

I thought Allen was really classy against Russia and very good against Belgium. When have we ever played teams like that and ended up 6 goals for, one against?

Wes was dreadful against France when he came on, but we know he's a good player.

Allen is no Modric or Pirlo, but he's better than a lot of so called star players playing for more fancied countries.

In mitigation, we were down to 10 men and Hendrick was the only player left resembling a traditional central midfielder.

[OwlsFan]

Had to laugh when Dunphy said that John and Liam had "called it". Giles had said that this could be the game that Ronaldo would show his class and Liam said it could be won by a moment of magic or by a set-piece. The words of genius.

As regards us and Wales, as the defending "Celtic Champions" we should be able to match them. I am not sure that they will raise their game in the manner they did in the other games for a game against their Celtic brethren. Hopefully Bale will have some niggle that will rule him out of our games. Hennessy doesn't inspire me with confidence. I'd say based upon the players available to both teams, it should be 55/45% in our favour.

They must be gutted though to lose a semi-final. Yes, fantastic to get that far but a Final just one game away against a tough but not invincible Portugal side - I know I'd be devasted and the happy clappy about getting so far would be scant consolation.

[davidatrb]

it should be 55/45% in our favour.

Do you know. I don't think that you are far off. If anything recent results show that it will be even more in our favour.

I have done some analysis on qualifying matches in the last 8 years. I discounted friendlies because they don't show much, and discounted tournament games because it doesn't catch home/away advantage and very few games anyway for either team. Wales' record doesn't blow us out of the water - they have a very low scoring record averaging less than one goal per game (even against teams like Andorra, Cyprus and Macedonia they've only scored once or twice each time). So it's very interesting that they scored 3 times twice in 6 games at the Finals (vs Russia and Belgium).

If you discount the Belgium scoreline (which flattered them in the end a little). Then there is nothing there that's particularly daunting in terms of stats and results. Will leave it up to others to talk about the quality of players, performances and tactics. But on a pure statistical basis - based on goals and results we shouldn't fear them.

Anyway if you crunch the numbers based on Poisson analysis then we have a 45% chance of winning, 27% chance of draw and 28% chance we lose in the Aviva.... Will be interesting to see what the bookies put up because my gut tells me that this is waaaaay too optimistic from our point of view but I find it hard to argue with numbers.

Overall in the last 8 years in Qualifying matches Wales have player 19 away and their record is W7 D2 L10, and a similar record at home with played 19 W9 D2 L8. Looking closer at the data, some results really jump out. I know its not fair to cherry pick fixtures but I've hardly had to look hard or go back far to see the're vulnerable. Look at those Serbian results, suddenly very relevant again! And Bale was involved in all the below games though only as a sub in a couple of them.

2016-06-05 Sweden 3-0 Wales
2015-10-10 Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 Wales
2015-09-06 Wales 0-0 Israel
2013-09-10 Wales 0-3 Serbia
2012-09-11 Serbia 6-1 Wales

[NeverFeltBetter]

Was impressed by Portugal last night, kept their shape well and shut Wales down when they came forward, think Bale's third long range effort was the only one that troubled the keeper. Suspensions hit Wales hard, but Bale fading from the game was worse.

Think Germany by one tonight. Not sure France have it in them if Germany play to the level they are capable of, and certainly don't think France have improved since the last time the two sides met.

[pineapple stu]

A black ref's kit...with light blue socks?

Really?

[BonnieShels]

I was thinking France would get the monkey off their back win by the odd goal. And the first 10 minutes seened to indicate that much. But Germany have ran the show since.

Thoroughly enjoyable.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Since the fifth minute France can barely hold onto the ball outside of their own half.

[NeverFeltBetter]

I've rarely seen a more undeserved lead at HT. Germany should have had two penalties at the other end if that's a spot-kick.

That Howedes tackle is the defensive moment of the tournament. What a trackback.

France had a few minutes at beginning and end of that half where they showed signs of life, but apart from that they were remarkably outclassed. There was a half hour where it seemed like they couldn't put five passes together. I would have said that German goals seem inevitable if this continues, but if France park the bus?

I hope Germany score anyway.

[BonnieShels]

A black ref's kit...with light blue socks?

Really?

I've has to glance a couple of times at it. It's a bit close to the France kit for my liking. And odd considering they wouldn't let Portugal wear Burgundy against Wales last night in their away kit.

There's been a few instances in this tournament with keeper and ref clashes.

The one that sticks out is the grey Turkish keepers shirt against their away kit. Shouldn't have happened. Anyway...
---
I was coming in here to talk about Höwedes' tackle... and then that penalty happened.

But anyway, that tackle, a thing of beauty and the perfect demonstration of defence as an art. Wonderful.

Thoroughly enjoyable first half in contrast to last night.

Portugal's will be praying for France. And I think (and hope) they take them.

[Stuttgart88]

I've rarely seen a more undeserved lead at HT. Germany should have had two penalties at the other end if that's a spot-kick.

That Howedes tackle is the defensive moment of the tournament. What a trackback.

France had a few minutes at beginning and end of that half where they showed signs of life, but apart from that they were remarkably outclassed. There was a half hour where it seemed like they couldn't put five passes together. I would have said that German goals seem inevitable if this continues, but if France park the bus?

I hope Germany score anyway.better than the Iceland tackle on Vardy? Wales' triple block vs Belgium? Ciaran Clark's shin over the bar against Sweden?

Enjoying this game but Jaysus that was a harsh penalty.

[pineapple stu]

Great tackle, but I'd have been quicker than Giroud there. And on a good day, I'd have seen the inside pass too.

[DeLorean]

Was Howedes the guy that tackled Giroud? He did well but I thought it was awful from Giroud. It was so obvious that he wasn't going to have the pace and needed to slip Griezmann in, which would have been a pretty easy thing to do with a bit of composure. Germany have been brilliant, France have done well to restrict them to fairly few clearcut chances considering the pressure they've been under. It was a clear penalty, no question at all. I thought Schweinsteiger was actually fouling Pogba for one of their own appeals too. Intriguing.

[DeLorean]

Had that written before I saw PStu's comment.

[NeverFeltBetter]

That was arguably just as good a chance for Giroud. That man might be the slowest striker in the tournament.

[pineapple stu]

On the Schweinsteiger penalty appeal, agree it looked six of one, etc. But the German 11 was being clearly held back and couldn't make any attempt to jump for the ball. Think Germany were very unlucky not to have won a penalty then.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Watching Germany chase this game, I'm struck by how frustrated some of them are looking already. Some stupid passing and tackling decisions have been already in this half, one resulted in a yellow. France are there for the taking, if they keep it cool and collected.

[davidatrb]

On the Schweinsteiger penalty appeal, agree it looked six of one, etc. But the German 11 was being clearly held back and couldn't make any attempt to jump for the ball. Think Germany were very unlucky not to have won a penalty then.

Schweinsteiger was a clear penalty all day long. Don't know what he was playing at, can only think he knew he wasn't making the header so stuck out a hand to try and intercept the ball. And the Germans reaction and attitude wasn't right and think they picked up another yellow for protesting.

Agree that France probably don't deserve to be ahead on general play but doesn't mean they didn't deserve that pen.

Total stupidity from schweinstieger and might have paid ultimate price.

[pineapple stu]

Meant the penalty call for Germany a few minutes earlier.

Schweinsteiger was claiming he'd been fouled by Pogba, but I think Draxler (11) had more of a claim.

[Stuttgart88]

A black ref's kit...with light blue socks?

Really?

http://animals.nationalgeographic.com/animals/birds/blue-footed-booby/

[NeverFeltBetter]

Can't believe Germany stopped play there. You can rest assured France wouldn't have.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Germany just can't get the chance. Crowded out at every opportunity, and ref blowing for France with every 50/50 in the box.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Ah here. Forget what I said, Germany deserve nothing from this game.

[DeLorean]

I was just about to say you're starting to sound very biased. :)

[Stuttgart88]

It's a pity that Germsn chance didn't go just inside the post.

Anyway, Randz would have held that cross. Keogh wouldn't have farted around in his own box.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Honestly, just frustrated watching Germany play so poor in the final third as this stage, but think Ref has been quite bad and France a tad fortunate twice. French fans booing Schweinsteiger off not exactly winning me over either, a very petty reaction.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Germany have gone close four times since conceding the second, but haven't hit the target. It really is all of their own doing, because the French defence isn't a brick wall by any means.

Ronaldo will fancy having a go at the French back four anyway. And is this it for Low? Can't see what more he can with Germany.

[Stuttgart88]

They may have come close but they still lack a real edge in front of goal. Long would thrive in that team, as would any of England's 4 best forwards.

Germany with Lewandowski or Kyle Lafferty would be unstoppable.

Amazing how weak Germany, Spain and Italy are in terms of predatory / instinctive goalscorers. Is instinct being coached out of players?

[BonnieShels]

Didnt he not sign a contract extension to 2018 or 2020?

[BonnieShels]

Hon Portugal!

[osarusan]

Germany lacked a real striker desperately. It really limited what they could try in the last 30 minutes.

I think (and hope) France will win it now.

[NeverFeltBetter]

Six great chances to score for Germany in the last 20 minutes. Only forced a (brilliant) save once. Didn't expect it at all. Gomez a huge loss in the end.

Portugal/France, then. Will Ronaldo play up to the stage? Will the lesser rest time have a big effect on France?

[DeLorean]

It's almost like the RTE lads had never even heard of Griezmann before this tournament.

[Stuttgart88]

So with only 3 days' rest between games we did better vs France than Germany.

[DeLorean]

So what made Germany such a potent force in the World Cup two short years ago? They have pretty much the same players with the exception of a 36 year old Miroslav Klose? Was he that crucial even at that point? They scored eighteen goals in their seven games in that tournament.

[pineapple stu]

Lahm as well.

Klose got 3 goals at the World Cup, and Muller got 5. So there's 8 goals they haven't replaced. They only scored 7 in 6 games at this Euros; they scored that against Brazil alone last time.

[DeLorean]

I was only considering attacking options really, Lahm is obviously a loss more generally. Muller is still there so I don't really understand what you mean by '8 goals they haven't replaced'?

[DeLorean]

What's up Benno? What bit of my post was the negative reputation for? All of it? ;)

[bennocelt]

What's up Benno? What bit of my post was the negative reputation for? All of it? ;)

here is a positive rep then:)
cant beleive anyone would think that was a penalty, imagine if they had played Italy, ffs

[pineapple stu]

I was only considering attacking options really, Lahm is obviously a loss more generally. Muller is still there so I don't really understand what you mean by '8 goals they haven't replaced'?
Well Klose is gone, and Muller is completely off form (no goals this tournament), so they've effectively lost him and his goals. What's happened to him is probably a key issue. But that's the 8 goals they scored in 2014 that they've simply lost without replacing this tournament.