Euro 2016 Qualifying [Archive] - Page 4

peadar1987

14/10/2013, 12:17 PM

They're independent events, every time you flip a coin, it's a 50:50 chance it's going to be heads or tails. Doesn't matter what the previous flip was, or the previous 5000 flips. If I flipped a coin and it came up heads, what actual physical reason would there be for the next flip to be tails? It's not as it the act of me flipping the coin the first time has made one side of it heavier or anything.

It's called the Gambler's Fallacy, pretty common among people who don't have a background in maths or stats.

The "three cups" thing is called the Monty Hall problem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem, and it's a total headwrecker, but yes, switching will give you a better chance of winning the prize. There are arguments on both sides, and it was basically only formally settled by running a computer program that tests switching and not switching tens of millions of times, and seeing what the results balance out as.

Stuttgart88

14/10/2013, 12:26 PM

Yes, the Monty Hall problem. I knew the name but didn't post it because I didn't want people to google the answer before posting!

The bit that wrecks my head is that by switching the odds improve to 2/3 rather than improving from 1/3 to 1/2. The wiki page explanation sourced from The Economist is probably the best.

That said, is any UEFA draw a purely random event?!

tetsujin1979

14/10/2013, 12:30 PM

The events are independent of each other.

Here's another probability problem:

You're in a game show and you have 3 upside down cups, one with a valuable coin underneath, the others with nothing.

If you guess right you keep the coin. You are asked to select a cup by pointing to it. Then the compere takes away one cup that he knows does not contain the coin.

Should you stick with your original selection or switch?
we covered this in first year probablility
you always switch, there's a one in three chance your original choice is correct, there's a one in two choice the remaining cup is correct

<EDIT>

sorry, replied before I read the other replies

Stuttgart88

14/10/2013, 12:37 PM

we covered this in first year probablility
you always switch, there's a one in three chance your original choice is correct, there's a one in two choice the remaining cup is correct

<EDIT>

sorry, replied before I read the other repliesBut you're wrong.

You should always switch, but the odds increase from 1/3 to 2/3, not from 1/3 to 1/2.

It all depends on whether you chose right first time around. If yes, switching causes you to lose. If no, switching causes you to win. So, switching wins in 2 out of 3 original scenarios.

I think that's it anyway!

ArdeeBhoy

14/10/2013, 12:39 PM

Never mind this, is there any way we can avoid being third seeds?

geysir

14/10/2013, 12:56 PM

Those who gave cause for a little bit of optimism, did not count on Israel having a draw in Portugal because a draw was outside the predictive radar of probabilities and calculations were neglected to be rectified. The little bit of realistic optimism around Slovenia and Turkey, now shattered by Israel just having to beat NI.
But I could be mistaken.

Stuttgart88

14/10/2013, 12:59 PM

It'd be fun to see AB cheering on NI though

ArdeeBhoy

14/10/2013, 1:46 PM

geysir

15/10/2013, 6:09 PM

Well, I have cheered them before...
:eek:

The latest means we don't have to worry about that particular Asian team...
http://www.ybig.ie/forum/euro-2016-qualifying-draw-seedings-see-pg-16_topic31785_page25.html

but Turkey, Slovenia and probably Romania?
Reckon if we win, down to us and the latter given the fixtures...
yeah i didn't realise that we get points just for turning up and losing to Germany, so no need for anybody to lose any sleep over Israel beating NI, as long as we win, we'll stay ahead of Israel.

DannyInvincible

15/10/2013, 6:13 PM

Turkey are 1-0 down to Holland already. Robben put the Dutch ahead after eight minutes. 16 minutes gone so far in that game.

Charlie Darwin

15/10/2013, 6:15 PM

Iceland 1-0 up in Norway. I can only assume geysir inadvertently switched off his computer in his euphoria.

DannyInvincible

15/10/2013, 6:16 PM

What would it mean if we were to win tonight and Slovenia were to draw against Switzerland?

DannyInvincible

15/10/2013, 7:06 PM

Holland 2-0 up against Turkey now. Slovenia and Switzerland still 0-0. Both games just past the half-way mark.

Charlie Darwin

15/10/2013, 7:08 PM

What would it mean if we were to win tonight and Slovenia were to draw against Switzerland?
I haven't been following it, but I'd imagine we still need a couple more results to go our way.

On a side note, Armenia are drawing away to Italy having been one goal to the good and could still conceivably sneak a playoff spot if a lot of results go their way.

DannyInvincible

15/10/2013, 7:38 PM

Slovenia losing 1-0 with five minutes to go. Iceland looking good for the play-offs.

Looks like Romania, 2-0 up at home to Estonia, may make the play-offs in place of Turkey if scores finish as they are.

I'm assuming Romania could leap-frog us into the second pot with a good result or two in the play-offs? I think they're the only side below us to worry about.

Charlie Darwin

15/10/2013, 7:47 PM

According to George, if results stay as they are and Romania don't win both playoff games outright, we will step up to second seeds.

DannyInvincible

15/10/2013, 8:05 PM

So, Romania have to lose both their play-off games? What if they were to draw one or both or even win one and lose one but still go out?

Charlie Darwin

15/10/2013, 8:06 PM

From what George said, they need to win both to leapfrog us.

Charlie Darwin

15/10/2013, 8:36 PM

Darragh Maloney reckons otherwise, we need Romania to not win either game. They'll be unseeded so this is very possible.

Charlie Darwin

15/10/2013, 8:37 PM

Dunphy's been drinking. I can't believe we still indulge this man.

DannyInvincible

15/10/2013, 9:30 PM

Closed Account

15/10/2013, 9:50 PM

Word on YBIG is that only two wins for Romania in the play-offs can take them past us and into the second pot for the Euros draw. I'm led to believe that not even a win and a draw would suffice for them.
From what I worked out, they need to 87,883pts from those games to get past us. The only way is with 2 wins. (or a draw and a 32 goal win)
They will be playing
Portugal
Greece
Croatia or
Ukraine

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking_2013.html

Charlie Darwin

15/10/2013, 9:57 PM

From what I worked out, they need to 87,883pts from those games to get past us. The only way is with 2 wins.
They will be playing
Portugal
Greece
Croatia or
Ukraine

http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking_2013.html
Denislson to the rescue. Who do we hope they play from that lot? Possibly depends on who is away first. You'd expect Portugal to get an away draw and win at home, but the rest?

ArdeeBhoy

15/10/2013, 10:29 PM

Ukraine and Portugal should be nailed on, the other two, anything could happen...

DannyInvincible

21/10/2013, 5:41 PM

So, Romania have been drawn against Greece with Greece at home for the first leg. I'd be very surprised if Romania were able to beat the Greeks in both fixtures so the chances of us being in the second pot for the Euro 2016 qualification draw are surely pretty high.

ArdeeBhoy

21/10/2013, 5:45 PM

Will change my thoughts possibly about Ukraine, though hope they sneak through in the most dubious circumstances...
As for Greece, no tempting Fate please...

Or that should say 'Tempting of the Fates' ?

DeLorean

22/10/2013, 8:04 AM

Interesting draw. I'd go with...

Portugal v Sweden (not at all certain though, Portugal will need a very good home leg I feel)
France v Ukraine (Can't see many goals in this, possibly a 1-0 or 2-1 agg win)
Greece v Romania (Limited knowledge of the Romanians but would think Greece might have too much experience for them)
Iceland v Croatia (Pretty luck draw for Croatia given the mess they're in. I'd have fancied the others against them but they should have enough here if they get their act together a bit)

shakermaker1982

22/10/2013, 11:16 AM

We need Zlatan at the World Cup.

DeLorean

22/10/2013, 12:29 PM

No more so than Ronaldo in fairness, two stroppy geniuses. Personally I feel Ronaldo and Portugal would have more to offer for the neutral. They seem to be playing with fire quite often though in terms of ending up in a playoff, bound to catch up with them sooner or later.

BonnieShels

22/10/2013, 1:35 PM

I'll be more pro-Portugal than pro-Sweden in this case.

Hopefully, Portugal, Ukraine, Croatia and Greece get there.

DeLorean

22/10/2013, 1:53 PM

I'd be hoping for the same except Romania for Greece. Couldn't begrudge Iceland really if they pulled it off as well.

BonnieShels

22/10/2013, 2:02 PM

I hate Romania and Greece. Greece are the lesser of two evils.

I always begrudge the underdog. HON HRVATSKA!

DeLorean

22/10/2013, 3:19 PM

BonnieShels

22/10/2013, 3:25 PM

I suspect your reason for hating Romania may not be football related! I have to say I've enjoyed watching the likes over Hagi, Raducioiu, Dumitrescu, Popescu, Petrescu, etc. over the years. I wouldn't know much about their current side though, other than West Ham and Spurs signing two of their defenders recently.

You suspect correctly.

Well almost. I never really liked them for no particular reason. Suppose it's the same way I've never really liked Wales or Switzerland.
But having lived with the most detestible human from October 2012-July 2013 who hailed from Iași, I can honestly the thoughts of him cheering on Romania next summer kill me.

SwanVsDalton

22/10/2013, 3:46 PM

Always had a soft-spot for Romania after Italia 90. They just remind me of good times.

Likewise the Greeks went way up in my estimation after attending Greece vs Russia in Warsaw last Summer. They were loving it and it was great to see the Ruskies get turned over.

BonnieShels

22/10/2013, 4:13 PM

ArdeeBhoy

23/10/2013, 3:16 PM

Greece.

Though the musical was awful.

zero

25/10/2013, 10:22 AM

not sure if this is accurate or not but the germans rarely make mistakes in europe.

http://l24.lt/en/component/k2/item/19997-uefa-changed-qualification-system-for-euro-2016

BonnieShels

25/10/2013, 12:50 PM

This was flagged a while ago. All part of UEFA's "week of Football" proposals.

Kingdom

25/10/2013, 1:51 PM

Yard of Pace

25/10/2013, 2:09 PM

[QUOTE=SwanVsDalton;1717515]Always had a soft-spot for Romania after Italia 90. They just remind me of good times.

QUOTE]

I was in a taxi with a Romanian driver a few months ago. He was still ****ed off with Silvio Lung, the goalkeeper. Despite it being about 3am, when he reached my house we sat in the car for another five minutes talking football. Very nice fella.

I would also be particularly appreciative of the talents of the Romanian actresses, Lucy Bell and Sandra Romain and........I've probably said too much about that.

In short, the Romanians are an alright bunch.

DeLorean

25/10/2013, 2:48 PM

Jesus they're pulling the ****.

1 hosts (1)
9 group winners & runners-up (18)
1 best 3rd-place team (1)
and then a playoff between the remaining 8 3rd-place teams (4)

Start booking holidays for France in 2016. I fancy Nantes.

Not being smart but what way did you expect them to come up with 24 teams?

We wouldn't have even made a playoff if it was based on these qualifiers so we really shouldn't take anything for granted. Even the time under Kerr, when we had a reasonable campaign, we somehow managed to finish as low 4th. We must still finish in the top 2 really to be sure because a playoff will move than likely be 50/50ish.

I like the idea of there being international matches on Thursday through to Tuesday to be honest. The lack of football is kind of boring under the current setup.

pineapple stu

27/10/2013, 8:50 AM

I like the idea of there being international matches on Thursday through to Tuesday to be honest. The lack of football is kind of boring under the current setup.
I'm in two minds about that. I agree with what you have there, and the idea of being able to watch, say, Spain v someone on a Thursday before going into Lansdowne on the Friday, but against that I do like seeing all the results coming through on the one day - starting off with the games in eastern Europe, working their way over to our own kick off and then getting back to the pub before Spain have started. Bit like 10 Premiership games against the current set-up really.

But overall, I think it'll be for the better.

SwanVsDalton

27/10/2013, 2:25 PM

So Russian roulette...

Greece or Romania?

Greece, for the seeding alone. If Romania wern't affecting Ireland, I'd like to see the go through though.

ArdeeBhoy

28/10/2013, 1:07 PM

I like the idea of there being international matches on Thursday through to Tuesday to be honest. The lack of football is kind of boring under the current setup.

I'm in two minds about that. I agree with what you have there, and the idea of being able to watch, say, Spain v someone on a Thursday before going into Lansdowne on the Friday, but against that I do like seeing all the results coming through on the one day - starting off with the games in eastern Europe, working their way over to our own kick off and then getting back to the pub before Spain have started. Bit like 10 Premiership games against the current set-up really.

But overall, I think it'll be for the better.

A 'lack' of football?
Hmm.

geysir

29/10/2013, 6:14 PM

I thought DeLorean was making two different points
Thursday to Tuesday football - good
Current (Trap) setup - football is kind of boring.

But rumours have it that Trap is already gone, no longer current.

DannyInvincible

15/11/2013, 8:56 PM

We'll be second seeds for the draw then with Greece's 3-1 victory over Romania in the first leg of their play-off. Good stuff!

tricky_colour

15/11/2013, 10:28 PM

Find it hard to believe we are second seeds after our recent run of results!!
Must be a pretty weird system to get an outcome like that!

tricky_colour

15/11/2013, 10:39 PM

I suppose the most pleasing thing was all the goals were quality goals.
A lot of our previous goals seem to have been really ground out efforts.

geysir

16/11/2013, 12:38 PM

Find it hard to believe we are second seeds after our recent run of results!!
Must be a pretty weird system to get an outcome like that!
It's harder to make progress up the UEFA ranking table and it follows that any regression happens slow.Trap was in pot 3 for every qual draw.
Trap's first 2 campaigns were good enough to rise in the UEFA table from 24th to leave us in the lower part of the 2nd pot and the 4 wins in the 3rd campaign were just enough to keep us there.
Getting Montenegro as a 6th seed in the first campaign didn't help though.
Some of the games were forgettable, but it's astonishing just how fast people forget the results or diminish what was earned from the first 2 campaigns.
So much so, that if the new management team from a better vantage point of 2nd seeds, manage to achieve similar to what Trap did in his first 2 campaigns (finish in the top 2), it would be regarded as a major success and achievement by both the FAI and the fans. They would even pass the hat around Lansdowne rd for an extra bonus to top the FAI bonus.